FTSE100 (cash futures)
(based on 30 year data charts)
Renko study
Yearly: you can see three possibilities there, well, every week, I try to see it differently. The three scenarios are the triangle, the W and the downstream moo river. We will keep an eye on that to see which one is the dominant one in play.
Quarterly: we are not out of the woods yet and we are very very close to some key resistance here. To negate another lunge towards lows like 4000, we must maintain green quarterly renko onwards and upwards.
Monthly: we have overcome a significant resistance line and is headed into a bear concentration camp, well, a bear defence zone, to be more accurate, above 4500 and under 4800. I reckon bears are laying in wait in that zone and somewhere there, we will be beaten back a few steps. We have made enough progress to ensure this is a V shaped rally, so any blips of weakness will be short-lived.
Weekly: the three peaks + 1 domed house scenario is very much alive, either a drop to 4300 or 4250 will bring out many late bulls to come out to play. Potentially, there is an upperbank there for a downstream moo river there and we are in touching distance from it.
============
Moo River Watch
Yearly
Price chart: hanging onto the bollinger midline, still bearish;
All momentum indicators are still bearish.
Quarterly
Prce Chart: we are almost where we have to ask the question whether this is 2003 style bull market or something different.
All momentum indicators are supportive.
Monthly
Price chart: this is the fourth month into the rally and we might keep a doji there, to give bears a glimmer of hope.
All momentum indicators are supportive and not hitting resistance or not being overbought yet.
Weekly
Price chart: notice the W on upper bollinger band, this is the most useful encouragement for the bulls and the bending up of the midline as well. This bull run has not finished yet. The pattern here is very much a consolidation continuation pattern. The last week to hit the top will be in the 28th week with a Friday ending on 17th July. Since every man and street in the street knows the weekly range is 4300-4500, it might just be another scalper's week again. I am having a fierce internal fight between the new trendrider and the old scalper. Every time, the trendrider says that this could be the week for 4680, the scalper comes out to play triumphantly.
RSI: this one has a funny shape, it does look like this could be the week, then again you have heard this one before. Meanwhile, why not stick to the range we all know and work out a plan for breakout trades.
========
Overall, all eyes on that shrinkingn triangle on daily Momentum, which still has some room to run yet and it has been meandering in the middle, which is most extraordinary.
Good luck.
Sunday, 14 June 2009
Thursday, 11 June 2009
Royal Bank of Scotland-- Week 23 Moo River Watch (7th Jun to 13th June 09)
Royal Bank of Scotland
(based on 30 year advanced data charts)
Renko study
Yearly: Now we know what it looks like by falling from hero to zero, look at that chart, amazing! Look at it, unless you are a long suffering investors, it is not a pretty sight!
Quarterly: We have just reared our head up off the ground, but the rising angle is so weak and very pathetic!
Monthly: we had our first jittery even in this timid bounce and now we need to make up our mind;
Weekly: if you look closely and carefully, you can almost see a W between February and March, which seems to be the foundation of this current rally, which is really a weak one;
Daily: if you look closely enough, you can almost see an emerging weak W there;
4 hourly: this is where it becomes more interesting for the bulls. We have had a five impulsive waves down since achieving 50 pence at the beginning of May, now we seem to have started a reversal and we have just had Wave 1. There is hope.
Hourly: we had a nicely shaped W to bounce up for this current rally and this one seems to be stronger, rising at a steeper angle. We have definitely broken the downstream moo river there at 39 pence today.
=============
Moo river watch
Yearly
Price chart: if this is the trading range for this year, it will be the tightest of all yearly ranges for a FTSE100 stock;
Quarterly
Price chart: we are still stuck in the downstream moo river, with an upperbank resistance at 97 pence.
Look at the enormous W on Force Index.
Monthly
Price chart: while we have not made any advance in term of price rise, but we have managed to cross from the lowerbank to the upperbank in a horizontal way, so this is the month that we have to either destroy this downstream moo river or obey it, which is not really an option, unless we get nationalised within the month. Still, if we stretch it, we could say July is the month that this downstream moo river has to be answer for. The upperbank is near 51 pence.
While all the other momentum indicators have gone parabolic, rsi has been kept under 20, I think amongst these indicators it is showing a possibility of a Moocano eruption higher. It has been sizzling, but price has been kept under the lid for a long time. The Force Index seems to be waiting to go up to the next level.
Weekly
Price chart: we managed to smuggle ourselves out of the bear market through a narrowing bollinger band, indicating a break down or a break upwards which will be imminent. Para sar dots have gone green for a few weeks, without sending the price higher, while its angle is slightly on the rise. More adventurous bulls are getting impatient.
RSI: interestingly, we have been kept under 45 so far and now we have an oddly shaped W, perhaps ready to crack the 45 resistance.
Other momentum indicators are supportive, but somewhat losing traction with price not making much progress.
Daily
Price chart: we need to break 43 pence tomorrow to ensure survival or better, a Moocano eruption.
RSI: there is an obvious W there, as we pulled back only onto 40's, this bodes well for the bulls;
W's are emerging on other momentum indicators, such as Elder Ray, Stoch and Force index. There is hope.
=============
I have bought some shares in this bank this morning, which is a major switch for me, as I switched from sticking to quality and safe plays like HSBC and Barclays to this one, which I have always insisted on avoiding. I think we can notice a subtle switch into these so-called riskier banks, as big boys seek more value for their money. It is a gamble, as the threat of nationalisation is never too far away. But the risk and reward ration seems to suggest a brave gamble.
good luck.
(based on 30 year advanced data charts)
Renko study
Yearly: Now we know what it looks like by falling from hero to zero, look at that chart, amazing! Look at it, unless you are a long suffering investors, it is not a pretty sight!
Quarterly: We have just reared our head up off the ground, but the rising angle is so weak and very pathetic!
Monthly: we had our first jittery even in this timid bounce and now we need to make up our mind;
Weekly: if you look closely and carefully, you can almost see a W between February and March, which seems to be the foundation of this current rally, which is really a weak one;
Daily: if you look closely enough, you can almost see an emerging weak W there;
4 hourly: this is where it becomes more interesting for the bulls. We have had a five impulsive waves down since achieving 50 pence at the beginning of May, now we seem to have started a reversal and we have just had Wave 1. There is hope.
Hourly: we had a nicely shaped W to bounce up for this current rally and this one seems to be stronger, rising at a steeper angle. We have definitely broken the downstream moo river there at 39 pence today.
=============
Moo river watch
Yearly
Price chart: if this is the trading range for this year, it will be the tightest of all yearly ranges for a FTSE100 stock;
Quarterly
Price chart: we are still stuck in the downstream moo river, with an upperbank resistance at 97 pence.
Look at the enormous W on Force Index.
Monthly
Price chart: while we have not made any advance in term of price rise, but we have managed to cross from the lowerbank to the upperbank in a horizontal way, so this is the month that we have to either destroy this downstream moo river or obey it, which is not really an option, unless we get nationalised within the month. Still, if we stretch it, we could say July is the month that this downstream moo river has to be answer for. The upperbank is near 51 pence.
While all the other momentum indicators have gone parabolic, rsi has been kept under 20, I think amongst these indicators it is showing a possibility of a Moocano eruption higher. It has been sizzling, but price has been kept under the lid for a long time. The Force Index seems to be waiting to go up to the next level.
Weekly
Price chart: we managed to smuggle ourselves out of the bear market through a narrowing bollinger band, indicating a break down or a break upwards which will be imminent. Para sar dots have gone green for a few weeks, without sending the price higher, while its angle is slightly on the rise. More adventurous bulls are getting impatient.
RSI: interestingly, we have been kept under 45 so far and now we have an oddly shaped W, perhaps ready to crack the 45 resistance.
Other momentum indicators are supportive, but somewhat losing traction with price not making much progress.
Daily
Price chart: we need to break 43 pence tomorrow to ensure survival or better, a Moocano eruption.
RSI: there is an obvious W there, as we pulled back only onto 40's, this bodes well for the bulls;
W's are emerging on other momentum indicators, such as Elder Ray, Stoch and Force index. There is hope.
=============
I have bought some shares in this bank this morning, which is a major switch for me, as I switched from sticking to quality and safe plays like HSBC and Barclays to this one, which I have always insisted on avoiding. I think we can notice a subtle switch into these so-called riskier banks, as big boys seek more value for their money. It is a gamble, as the threat of nationalisation is never too far away. But the risk and reward ration seems to suggest a brave gamble.
good luck.
Nymex-- Week 23 Moo River Watch (7th Jun to 13th June 09)
Daily Nymex Crude (July) Bun (10-Jun-09)
Renko Study
Quarterly: what a bounce and there has been no pullback there, definitely a V shaped rally so far;
Monthly: ditto;
Weekly: it has some sort of rounded bottom shape there and it bounced up once it penetrated the neckline there near 5520.
Daily: I think we are the most lethal impulse Wave 3 at the moment, and there is no stopping signs yet;
Tuesday, 9 June 2009
Moneysupermarket.com-- Week 23 Moo River Watch (7th Jun to 13th June 09)
Moneysupermarket.com
Renko study
Yearly: What a tremendous bear market on this one for the past few years, it feels the same as looking at the old dot com stocks once we went past 2000. The only way was down and has been down, will it be continuing downwards?
Quarterly: at last, we are having a bounce here, but the rising angle is too little to merit a serious concern for bears, though one has to remember all great things come about one step at a time;
Monthly: we had two bounces, now it seems we are tiring a bit, but this is not the right time to stop, we really need to be over 60 pence on Renko to be on the safe side. The shape of the two bounces does have the potential to be a W there. The structure is such that it is more like to be a W than an M, though we do have to wake up to that fact asap.
Weekly: if you draw a few lines there links tops etc, you will realise that it has made a series of manoevour to reduce the angle of the bear market and we have finally escaped from the bear claws. Either we have enterted a flat bullbear battle zone, or we have just has Wave 1 upwards, now are in the process of Wave 2, pending a massive Wave 3 up to shape up an upstream moo river there.
Daily: you can see we are in a basing downstream moo river with three potential upperbanks as resistance, 60 pence, 75 pence; 100 pence, with possibility for a final plunge towards 40 pence. At this moment, the market is still keeping mum, not telling us what it wants to do. So let's go over to the moo river watch, to see whether that gives us further clues.
=====================
Moo river watch
Yearly
Price Chart: What a calamity from 2007 when it made its debute! Well, all dot com investors must shiver at the graph, which must remind them of many similar charts for the dot com stocks before, pump big and dump big. There is only one question to mind, have we hit the value line or rock bottom yet?
Force index: this one has been bouncing up, indicating some kind of bullish divergence here.
Quarterly
Price chart: the candle pattern here seems to be a reveral pattern, though needing a bit more upside and a strong finish to this quarter to confirm it. We have certainly escaped the downstream moo river and are determined to stay out of it.
Force index: it has carved through 0 from negative territory, so the bulls are waking up to the value in this share perhaps.
Monthly
Price chart: we are not really out of the bearwoods yet, we need to break 72 pence to be in the safe hands of bulls.
RSI: it is like a boxer, being knocked down a few times, not being knocked out, so it is trying to get up from the floor and stand up to fight again.
Momentum: it has rallies up in a V shaped rally and now we have had a big W, if that one fails, it could hurt the bulls a lot; if this W extends the run, this share will have more bull legs to run further north;
Weekly
Price chart: this is the second time we display this type of pattern, which has the potential to W up. But last time, it failed miserable in 2008, only to come down much further. This time, it might work, with a very flattened bollinger lowerband as support. Can we get over 70 pence? This is the challenge.
We are all over the places on the momentum indicators, still very weak in the bull legs and late bears are still growling.
====================
Overall, we have escaped the long running sharp downstream moo river, but we are not out of the bearwoods yet. The best way for this share is to spike up and penetrate the downstream moo river in one go to kick off an uptrend. There is hope and the challenge of either a big up or a big down is to be expected shortly.
Good luck.
Renko study
Yearly: What a tremendous bear market on this one for the past few years, it feels the same as looking at the old dot com stocks once we went past 2000. The only way was down and has been down, will it be continuing downwards?
Quarterly: at last, we are having a bounce here, but the rising angle is too little to merit a serious concern for bears, though one has to remember all great things come about one step at a time;
Monthly: we had two bounces, now it seems we are tiring a bit, but this is not the right time to stop, we really need to be over 60 pence on Renko to be on the safe side. The shape of the two bounces does have the potential to be a W there. The structure is such that it is more like to be a W than an M, though we do have to wake up to that fact asap.
Weekly: if you draw a few lines there links tops etc, you will realise that it has made a series of manoevour to reduce the angle of the bear market and we have finally escaped from the bear claws. Either we have enterted a flat bullbear battle zone, or we have just has Wave 1 upwards, now are in the process of Wave 2, pending a massive Wave 3 up to shape up an upstream moo river there.
Daily: you can see we are in a basing downstream moo river with three potential upperbanks as resistance, 60 pence, 75 pence; 100 pence, with possibility for a final plunge towards 40 pence. At this moment, the market is still keeping mum, not telling us what it wants to do. So let's go over to the moo river watch, to see whether that gives us further clues.
=====================
Moo river watch
Yearly
Price Chart: What a calamity from 2007 when it made its debute! Well, all dot com investors must shiver at the graph, which must remind them of many similar charts for the dot com stocks before, pump big and dump big. There is only one question to mind, have we hit the value line or rock bottom yet?
Force index: this one has been bouncing up, indicating some kind of bullish divergence here.
Quarterly
Price chart: the candle pattern here seems to be a reveral pattern, though needing a bit more upside and a strong finish to this quarter to confirm it. We have certainly escaped the downstream moo river and are determined to stay out of it.
Force index: it has carved through 0 from negative territory, so the bulls are waking up to the value in this share perhaps.
Monthly
Price chart: we are not really out of the bearwoods yet, we need to break 72 pence to be in the safe hands of bulls.
RSI: it is like a boxer, being knocked down a few times, not being knocked out, so it is trying to get up from the floor and stand up to fight again.
Momentum: it has rallies up in a V shaped rally and now we have had a big W, if that one fails, it could hurt the bulls a lot; if this W extends the run, this share will have more bull legs to run further north;
Weekly
Price chart: this is the second time we display this type of pattern, which has the potential to W up. But last time, it failed miserable in 2008, only to come down much further. This time, it might work, with a very flattened bollinger lowerband as support. Can we get over 70 pence? This is the challenge.
We are all over the places on the momentum indicators, still very weak in the bull legs and late bears are still growling.
====================
Overall, we have escaped the long running sharp downstream moo river, but we are not out of the bearwoods yet. The best way for this share is to spike up and penetrate the downstream moo river in one go to kick off an uptrend. There is hope and the challenge of either a big up or a big down is to be expected shortly.
Good luck.
Sunday, 7 June 2009
ftse100-- Week 23 Moo River Watch (7th Jun to 13th June 09)
FTSE 100
(based on 30 year advanced data charts)
Renko Study
Yearly: this is the fascinating bit, because ftse is in a shrinking triangle, whereby it has already hit the lowerbank, which means that we have seen the low on ftse100 this year already, with a potential upside up to 6000 in a few years' time. For ftse100, the current level near 4400 is actually of critical importance. If it caves down under 4400, it has the potential to test 3500 by 2010. To keep the bears at bay, bulls might push hard into new highs to keep a safe distance between the triangle scenario and the downstream moo river scenario, which depicts 3500. Meanwhile, we wait with baited breath.
Quarterly: this one is difficult to read. But I think the bulls have made enough effort here to keep the bounce intact. Subject to the possibility of a test of 4000, we should be safely on our way towards 6000. In the immediate future, there might be a key resistance popping up.
Monthly: together with the quarterly, it is also possible that we are actually in a Double top, or a giant M top shape, depicting a massive fall. For now though, the bulls want to work on the triangle scenario. 4520 is the key resistance, if overcome, then we will get to 4800 at least.
Weekly: the way I draw on this chart gives us a triangle to play with, we are confronting the key challenge here near 4500, a break here takes us up to 4700ish. 4180ish will be a main support level.
Daily: difficult to get a clue there, it seems that it is still the same challenge, either 4500 or 4800.
==================================
Moo River Watch
yearly
Price chart: it is a difficult chart to put into a pattern, either upstream moo river, downstream moo river, shrinking triangle or a butterfly shape, where we are in the process of shaping up the right wing. You do need a lot of imagination to see a pattern here. The bulls really need to push it throug 4500 to give themselves a bit more breathing space. Interestingly, the lower bollinger line is in a straight rising line at +45 degrees and the upper bollinger band does now show an M either. Maybe, things are not yet that doom and gloom yet. There is hope for humanity.
RSI: it is in a dangerous flat shape, which is susceptible to further falls towards the lowerbank in the downstream moo river.
Other momentum indicators are all in downstream moo rivers, all very bearish, though some might want to bounce up a bit, there is no guarantee though.
Quarterly
RSI: we are bouncing up toward another upperbank, with plenty of upside left.
Other momentum indicators seem to be supportive and bouncing up too.
Monthly
Price chart: what a headache for bulls and bears, as we lie exactly on the line in the sand between bulls and bears, there is no winner yet. But I think FTSE100 is lagging Dow, so we already know what is going to happen here, we are going up!
RSI: still room for the W based rally to finish its job upon the upperbank of the downstream moo river.
Momentum: this one is going strongly, V'd up and then W'd to continue and penetrated the downstream moo river, showing no signs of tiring yet.
All other momentum indicators are supportive.
Weekly
Price chart: I tend to switch to my butterfly to see it more clearly. I have drawn this butterfly with us now in the process of shaping up the right wing. For this wing, I have drawn three lowerbanks and three upperbanks to shape up three possible wing sizes. For the innermost wing, we are squeezed in such a way that we have to get out of a triangle in this coming week, either to reach 4680 or to fall to 4270ish. (Check out my weekly forecast in the Weekly forecasts and results).
Most momentum indicators are non-commital to either side, though they are still in the upstream moo rivers.
==============================
Three Peaks + one Domed House
Daily Price chart
We have certainly had the three peaks so far. If this is a classic scenario, then we have not yet had the separation decline, which depicts a dive under 4300 and we are also missing the Domed House. All to play for here.
Good luck.
(based on 30 year advanced data charts)
Renko Study
Yearly: this is the fascinating bit, because ftse is in a shrinking triangle, whereby it has already hit the lowerbank, which means that we have seen the low on ftse100 this year already, with a potential upside up to 6000 in a few years' time. For ftse100, the current level near 4400 is actually of critical importance. If it caves down under 4400, it has the potential to test 3500 by 2010. To keep the bears at bay, bulls might push hard into new highs to keep a safe distance between the triangle scenario and the downstream moo river scenario, which depicts 3500. Meanwhile, we wait with baited breath.
Quarterly: this one is difficult to read. But I think the bulls have made enough effort here to keep the bounce intact. Subject to the possibility of a test of 4000, we should be safely on our way towards 6000. In the immediate future, there might be a key resistance popping up.
Monthly: together with the quarterly, it is also possible that we are actually in a Double top, or a giant M top shape, depicting a massive fall. For now though, the bulls want to work on the triangle scenario. 4520 is the key resistance, if overcome, then we will get to 4800 at least.
Weekly: the way I draw on this chart gives us a triangle to play with, we are confronting the key challenge here near 4500, a break here takes us up to 4700ish. 4180ish will be a main support level.
Daily: difficult to get a clue there, it seems that it is still the same challenge, either 4500 or 4800.
==================================
Moo River Watch
yearly
Price chart: it is a difficult chart to put into a pattern, either upstream moo river, downstream moo river, shrinking triangle or a butterfly shape, where we are in the process of shaping up the right wing. You do need a lot of imagination to see a pattern here. The bulls really need to push it throug 4500 to give themselves a bit more breathing space. Interestingly, the lower bollinger line is in a straight rising line at +45 degrees and the upper bollinger band does now show an M either. Maybe, things are not yet that doom and gloom yet. There is hope for humanity.
RSI: it is in a dangerous flat shape, which is susceptible to further falls towards the lowerbank in the downstream moo river.
Other momentum indicators are all in downstream moo rivers, all very bearish, though some might want to bounce up a bit, there is no guarantee though.
Quarterly
Price chart: I am basing my trading plan entirely on this chart. I can still see us reaching 4680 this quarter, so we have got 3.5 weeks left to do it. If we do, then I claim that I know what is going to happen in the next few quarters till Q2 in 2010 and perhaps beyond as well. That is a big claim, though the foundation of this claim is on that particular condition that we reach 4680 this quarter, how interesting.
RSI: we are bouncing up toward another upperbank, with plenty of upside left.
Other momentum indicators seem to be supportive and bouncing up too.
Monthly
Price chart: what a headache for bulls and bears, as we lie exactly on the line in the sand between bulls and bears, there is no winner yet. But I think FTSE100 is lagging Dow, so we already know what is going to happen here, we are going up!
RSI: still room for the W based rally to finish its job upon the upperbank of the downstream moo river.
Momentum: this one is going strongly, V'd up and then W'd to continue and penetrated the downstream moo river, showing no signs of tiring yet.
All other momentum indicators are supportive.
Weekly
Price chart: I tend to switch to my butterfly to see it more clearly. I have drawn this butterfly with us now in the process of shaping up the right wing. For this wing, I have drawn three lowerbanks and three upperbanks to shape up three possible wing sizes. For the innermost wing, we are squeezed in such a way that we have to get out of a triangle in this coming week, either to reach 4680 or to fall to 4270ish. (Check out my weekly forecast in the Weekly forecasts and results).
Most momentum indicators are non-commital to either side, though they are still in the upstream moo rivers.
==============================
Three Peaks + one Domed House
Daily Price chart
We have certainly had the three peaks so far. If this is a classic scenario, then we have not yet had the separation decline, which depicts a dive under 4300 and we are also missing the Domed House. All to play for here.
Good luck.
Hangseng 42-- Week 23 Moo River Watch (7th Jun to 13th June 09)
Hangseng 42 (cash futures)
I will start doing a Renko study and a Moo river Watch, so that we may be able to draw some correlated conclusions.
Renko study
Yearly: this bounce has been relentless with no hiccups at all so far, carving through key resistance levels with ease. It is rising at the healthy angle of +45 degrees, which seems to hint at a V shaped rally. We are getting closer to 38.2% Fib level at 19568, having overcome the 23.6% Fib level at 17647;
Quarterly: same here, the rally is continuing without a pause, carving through Fib level 23.6% at 16892 and is threatening Fib level 38.2% at 18957 and in the distance there is the Fib level 50% at 20625, this number rings a bell for another magic number at 20700!!!
Monthly: same here, no pause yet;
Weekly: this gives us more clues about this rally. We seem to be in a 5 wave impulsive bull run here and we are currently in Wave 3. There is no sign of topping yet. We are yet to find out the Wave 3 top and then there should be a healthy pull back to some Fib levels;
Daily: no signs of double M top yet, it seems renko likes doing M top pullbacks or collapses. Time to watch out for them.
======================================================
Moo river watch
Yearly
Price chart: We are still in the downstream moo river, which is a ginormous one. A maximum bounce off the lowerbank could take us up to 24000 and a more plausible target before a major pullback could be near 20400, which again rings the bell of the magic number of 20700. Somewhere there, we are done with this rally and a proper regurgitation will take place.
Quarterly
Price Chart: while the downstream moo river from yearly rumbles down here, we can draw a butterfly shape here, though in my simplistic EWT waves, we can clearly see that we are in Wave 3, pending a top and a pullback. What I am sensing here is while this Wave 3 has been fast and furious, the Wave 4 and Wave 5 could be slow burners, taking ages. So if you are a bull, you might have already had most of this year's bull fun, some scalping and range trading is to follow. I still see a Wave 3 target near 20700, somewhere there.
Monthly
Price chart: you can say the structure is complicated to see the future, but you can easily say it has been the easiest of all bull runs if you had set your heart in the bull camp since March. We have had four months in a row with green monthly candles. I always think 3 green candles in a row is enough to reverse the bear run. The upstreams here have turned parabolic, from a healthy rising angle of +45 degrees to the current +60 degrees. We are getting very near to a top now, in this Wave 3 run, 20700 beckons and winks in the not too distant future now, whether that is the ultimate Wave 3 and Wave 5 top target. One day, we will stare at the magic number of 20700 in amazement!
RSI: next time, you see a W or M on monthly RSI or any other time zones, sit up and take note. What a run we have had out of this W.
All other momentum indicators are supportively bullish with no signs of M or tiring or being overbought yet.
Weekly
Price chart: we are definitely in a very sharp upstream moo river, without the lowerbank being threatened or breached, we continue upwards and onwards. In terms of waves, as far as my simplistic EWT view is concerned, we seem to be in Wave 5 of the main Wave 3, so a top is very near. The next two main waves 4 and 5 will throw out some complicated minor waves ABC and 12345, to keep bulls and bears all richly entertained. I try to gaze into the future here and the month of September looms large and the date 20.09.2009 looms large as well. This is when things might go really pear-shaped! Before then, we live in hope and enjoy life with hope in our hearts and souls.
RSI: how does RSI represent or embody the end of Wave 3 in price? Would it actually reach into 70's top so that Wave 5 will be realised upon bearish divergence? We seem to have given the possibility of shaping up an M there a miss for now. Either we will try to shape up an oddly shaped W or we simply push for the top now. We are in an upstream moo river anyways.
Momentum: we have smashed the downstream moo river there in Week 17 in May, having broken the triangle there and then. We are in the upstream moo river and seem to be enjoying it.
Elder Ray: this one is actually in a downstream moo river and it is challenging the upperbank now, with potentially a mis-shaped W or M.
MCAD: this one is keeping mum by keeping on challenging the upperbank of an expanding triangle, bullishness seems to be gathering pace.
Repulse: it has broken the upperbank of the upstream moo river and has gone parabolic.
Stoch: this one has hit the top and is now floating in the sky, the only way is down, but the question is when!
====================================
For a weekly range forecast: I would say an early week rise, but to tank down perhaps from 19000ish towards 18000ish.
Good luck.
I will start doing a Renko study and a Moo river Watch, so that we may be able to draw some correlated conclusions.
Renko study
Yearly: this bounce has been relentless with no hiccups at all so far, carving through key resistance levels with ease. It is rising at the healthy angle of +45 degrees, which seems to hint at a V shaped rally. We are getting closer to 38.2% Fib level at 19568, having overcome the 23.6% Fib level at 17647;
Quarterly: same here, the rally is continuing without a pause, carving through Fib level 23.6% at 16892 and is threatening Fib level 38.2% at 18957 and in the distance there is the Fib level 50% at 20625, this number rings a bell for another magic number at 20700!!!
Monthly: same here, no pause yet;
Weekly: this gives us more clues about this rally. We seem to be in a 5 wave impulsive bull run here and we are currently in Wave 3. There is no sign of topping yet. We are yet to find out the Wave 3 top and then there should be a healthy pull back to some Fib levels;
Daily: no signs of double M top yet, it seems renko likes doing M top pullbacks or collapses. Time to watch out for them.
======================================================
Moo river watch
Yearly
Price chart: We are still in the downstream moo river, which is a ginormous one. A maximum bounce off the lowerbank could take us up to 24000 and a more plausible target before a major pullback could be near 20400, which again rings the bell of the magic number of 20700. Somewhere there, we are done with this rally and a proper regurgitation will take place.
Quarterly
Price Chart: while the downstream moo river from yearly rumbles down here, we can draw a butterfly shape here, though in my simplistic EWT waves, we can clearly see that we are in Wave 3, pending a top and a pullback. What I am sensing here is while this Wave 3 has been fast and furious, the Wave 4 and Wave 5 could be slow burners, taking ages. So if you are a bull, you might have already had most of this year's bull fun, some scalping and range trading is to follow. I still see a Wave 3 target near 20700, somewhere there.
Monthly
Price chart: you can say the structure is complicated to see the future, but you can easily say it has been the easiest of all bull runs if you had set your heart in the bull camp since March. We have had four months in a row with green monthly candles. I always think 3 green candles in a row is enough to reverse the bear run. The upstreams here have turned parabolic, from a healthy rising angle of +45 degrees to the current +60 degrees. We are getting very near to a top now, in this Wave 3 run, 20700 beckons and winks in the not too distant future now, whether that is the ultimate Wave 3 and Wave 5 top target. One day, we will stare at the magic number of 20700 in amazement!
RSI: next time, you see a W or M on monthly RSI or any other time zones, sit up and take note. What a run we have had out of this W.
All other momentum indicators are supportively bullish with no signs of M or tiring or being overbought yet.
Weekly
Price chart: we are definitely in a very sharp upstream moo river, without the lowerbank being threatened or breached, we continue upwards and onwards. In terms of waves, as far as my simplistic EWT view is concerned, we seem to be in Wave 5 of the main Wave 3, so a top is very near. The next two main waves 4 and 5 will throw out some complicated minor waves ABC and 12345, to keep bulls and bears all richly entertained. I try to gaze into the future here and the month of September looms large and the date 20.09.2009 looms large as well. This is when things might go really pear-shaped! Before then, we live in hope and enjoy life with hope in our hearts and souls.
RSI: how does RSI represent or embody the end of Wave 3 in price? Would it actually reach into 70's top so that Wave 5 will be realised upon bearish divergence? We seem to have given the possibility of shaping up an M there a miss for now. Either we will try to shape up an oddly shaped W or we simply push for the top now. We are in an upstream moo river anyways.
Momentum: we have smashed the downstream moo river there in Week 17 in May, having broken the triangle there and then. We are in the upstream moo river and seem to be enjoying it.
Elder Ray: this one is actually in a downstream moo river and it is challenging the upperbank now, with potentially a mis-shaped W or M.
MCAD: this one is keeping mum by keeping on challenging the upperbank of an expanding triangle, bullishness seems to be gathering pace.
Repulse: it has broken the upperbank of the upstream moo river and has gone parabolic.
Stoch: this one has hit the top and is now floating in the sky, the only way is down, but the question is when!
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For a weekly range forecast: I would say an early week rise, but to tank down perhaps from 19000ish towards 18000ish.
Good luck.
Thursday, 4 June 2009
Gold-- Week 22 Moofall Watch (31st May to 6th June 09)
Gold (spot)
(based on 30 year advanced chart)
Yearly
There is not much to say here, apart from the observation that we are still in a very long running bull market since 2002. If we have to look for signs of weakness, Elder ray is bending down a bit and Stoch is almost crossing, bearishly, if only we can see what is happening in that intense minglingn of the two lines there. And needn't I add that RSI is at a high of 84.49.
This reminds me to buy a few more Lotto tickets, if I win, I'd be a bear, ride it all the way down to 500 to start with and 200 eventually. I will be a madbear there, but with it being such a volatile market, I don't want to be involved at all, without winning the lottery, be warned.
Quarterly
This is where interesting things are happening, i.e., the bearish divergence is appearing everywhere, with a high price and waning momentums, across rsi, Momentum, elder ray etc. Someone is holding up the glistening stuff artificially.
We are still hedging ourselves against the end of the world scenario, in terms of a collapsing economy and stock markets and so on. This is creating a duality that we won't let go of gold but we want to buy higher risk assets as well. Actually, gold is probably the world's most toxic and dangerous asset to hold in our pension funds etc.. I wish I could ask them to sell all gold in our portfolios and start investing in the real economy, companies and business and entrepreneurship.
Monthly
The bearish divergence is significant here too, the price is simply held by who knows what forces. We are still in the process of Wave 2 pullback, which is threatening to falsify this 5 impulsive waves down scenario, but RSI is supportive of this scenario, in a downstream moo river. but there might still be a little spike left and a little meandering left yet to touch the upperbank there, while price must be kept the last high near 1033, otherwise Wave 1 wil be falsified.
Come on, please, let me win the lottery this weekend and I will turn into a permabear on gold and donate half of my winning to charity and 1/4 devoted to do something good for the world and 1/4 for love, family, friends, etc.
Weekly
I can't believe the technical analysts are not screaming out bearish divergence all over the world. It had a double top and bounced back and now is shaping up another double top.
The world is waiting for a Trigger event to sell off gold in a massive moofall (waterfall) and that could just be our GB. I think it was his selling of British gold that triggered this whole bull market and how apt it will be for him to trigger the downfall of the glistening stuff.
But despite my bearish fervour, I will never touch gold unless I win the lottery, so be warned and stay away from it.
Good luck.
(based on 30 year advanced chart)
Yearly
There is not much to say here, apart from the observation that we are still in a very long running bull market since 2002. If we have to look for signs of weakness, Elder ray is bending down a bit and Stoch is almost crossing, bearishly, if only we can see what is happening in that intense minglingn of the two lines there. And needn't I add that RSI is at a high of 84.49.
This reminds me to buy a few more Lotto tickets, if I win, I'd be a bear, ride it all the way down to 500 to start with and 200 eventually. I will be a madbear there, but with it being such a volatile market, I don't want to be involved at all, without winning the lottery, be warned.
Quarterly
This is where interesting things are happening, i.e., the bearish divergence is appearing everywhere, with a high price and waning momentums, across rsi, Momentum, elder ray etc. Someone is holding up the glistening stuff artificially.
We are still hedging ourselves against the end of the world scenario, in terms of a collapsing economy and stock markets and so on. This is creating a duality that we won't let go of gold but we want to buy higher risk assets as well. Actually, gold is probably the world's most toxic and dangerous asset to hold in our pension funds etc.. I wish I could ask them to sell all gold in our portfolios and start investing in the real economy, companies and business and entrepreneurship.
Monthly
The bearish divergence is significant here too, the price is simply held by who knows what forces. We are still in the process of Wave 2 pullback, which is threatening to falsify this 5 impulsive waves down scenario, but RSI is supportive of this scenario, in a downstream moo river. but there might still be a little spike left and a little meandering left yet to touch the upperbank there, while price must be kept the last high near 1033, otherwise Wave 1 wil be falsified.
Come on, please, let me win the lottery this weekend and I will turn into a permabear on gold and donate half of my winning to charity and 1/4 devoted to do something good for the world and 1/4 for love, family, friends, etc.
Weekly
I can't believe the technical analysts are not screaming out bearish divergence all over the world. It had a double top and bounced back and now is shaping up another double top.
The world is waiting for a Trigger event to sell off gold in a massive moofall (waterfall) and that could just be our GB. I think it was his selling of British gold that triggered this whole bull market and how apt it will be for him to trigger the downfall of the glistening stuff.
But despite my bearish fervour, I will never touch gold unless I win the lottery, so be warned and stay away from it.
Good luck.
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