dow
based on 30 year data chart
Yearly
Take a look at the downstream moo river on rsi, it is slithering down along the lowerbank, which indicates a lot of indecision this year. I am not sure about this slithering down, whether it is a continuation behaviour or a reversal behaviour, for me, probably I am more inclined to the former than the latter, as bouncing off should be sharpish.
Quarterly
Momentum indicators are trying to bend up and price should meet heavy resistance near 8800ish for the quarterly range.
Monthly
We are bouncing up in the third continuous month, another green monthly candle could bring serious doubt to bears.
RSI is bending up, and has not yet met key resistance line, other indicators are supportive.
No green para sar dot yet!
Weekly
We have noted that weeklies are bull camps with everything signalling bullishness so far for the sixth weeks, on green para sar dots.
Still, RSI is hitting upperbank one, a break of which will be significant, price has yet to touch the key resistance near 8800/8900. Other momentum indicators have broken through downstream moo rivers and gone sharply bullish. Overall, this bull run seems to be gathering the final momentum for a spike that will surprise many.
Price seems to be held up by ma20 near 7940.
Daily
We almost caved in on Friday, but somehow the bull run was rescued and it is now bouncing off ma20 of 8000ish, above here, we go for 8700 first this week, before meeting significant bear onslaughter.
=========
This is a week that I see a lot of volatility, a final spike into 8700, beofore plunging back down under 8000 is what I see on dow. Be careful out there, and good luck.
Sunday, 3 May 2009
Week 18 (3rd May-9th May): Wealth Moo River Watch
Cable (sterling/dollar)
based on 30 year data chart
Yearly
We are stuck in a flat bollinger trading zone, between $2.02 and $1.33 roughly, with a midline of $1.6688 which will serve as the key ceiling.
Momentum indicators are all over the place, not showing any bullish configurations so far.
Quarterly
On the cancles, one can detect a possible reversal pattern and some momentum indicators are bending upwards. The bollinger midline is near $1.8237, which will be a tremendous ceilingn for this year. No signs of confirmed reveral yet.
Monthly
Having collapsed from $2.12 top in 2007, cable is trying to bounce up and it is due for a massive pullback in any case. The price chart has a rounded bottom shape, though bullishness is dependent on the bottoming up process to break $1.60 at least. Some Momentum indicators are supportive, for example, Elder ray has a W shape and RSI and Repulse are supportive.
Weekly
The most interesting moo river is the downstream moo river on rsi from a few years back. We are currently crossing from the lowerbank to the upperbank, which still has some room for the upside yet. Repulse has a straight V shape, which is bullish and all momentum indicators are bullihed configured, signaling further continuation of the bull run.
We are climbing the ladder, first up is $1.52ish; next is $1.57ish; $1.66ish, but these figures need to adjusted as I only read them vertically, so it depends on the time we are going to take to go up and usually we do not shoot up vertically in normal circumstances.
Daily
This is where we can see most of the bullishness, with correlated upstream moo rivers across price and momentum indicators. And we have just tested the lowerbank again and we are pushing for a major top for this bull run in the not too distant future, somewhere into the $1.60's, which should complete the whole bull run, as by then daily rsi would have reached into 70's/80's.
I stay bullish for cable, as I can see British interest rate bottoming out and long term value investors might want to reposition themselves for this upturn of interest rate movement.
=======================================================================
Gold (SPOT)
30 year data chart
Yearly
We have had such a great bull run without a proper regurgitation, which is amazing. I am think maybe gold has overshot itself from its underlying norm value arond 500 dollars, but to date, the bullish run is continuing.
Quarterly
It is very clear that one can see a topping process here and bears are looking for bearish divergence signals, which are obvious across a few momentum indicators. Price is holding up well, maybe even a last dash over 1000 is not be ruled out to shape up an expanded triangle, a classical bull trap top, then the major collapse might take place. This is a very tricky market for a very volatile investment instrument. A break lower than 680 will bring throngs of bears out to play.
Monthly
The strong correlated bull run ran out steam in July 2008 when rsi fell out of the upstream moo river and has never recovered itself since.
Price is holding up well to suck in more late bulls, but the decaying of the bull run must be noted.
Near term, we are crossing in the new downstream moo river and a challenge of the former lowerbank of the upstream moo river near 73ish might not be ruled out, though it would be a fake rally to suck in more greedy bulls. when that fails, we will just start the next very aggressive Wave 3 down, taking price down towards 500 dollars.
Weekly
As we focus on this topping exercises, some bears are working on this double top possibility, though I quite like the expanded triangle scenario, where price cold potentially rise up to 1230 top, which would shock many and suck in further hesitatant bulls. Thus, with regard to leveraging and risks involved, it almost makes gold untradable for Private Investors, as the band will be too wide to trade, I would certainly suggest to avoid trading gold at all costs, or trade with compulsory or protected stops at all times. Gold is certainly not one instrument for averaging up or down, as this year it is going to break quite a few hearts.
Near term though, the momentum is downwards to fit in with the double top assumption by many. 1000 is pyschologically satisfying to be the top. Another dip towards 670 will get many bears excited, though that might just be the final leg of the current weakness.
Daily
We are stuck in the middle and could go either way in the ranges I have been talking about over long term horizons.
========================================================================
Nymex (June)
4 hourly
Oil is the barometer for economic confidence, it seems, just as gold is the barometer of fear.
Oil has had a great run and now we are coming to make sure a top is in for this current bull run, a spike into rsi 80's would surprise many, but by then, it is time to tank big again. We are not going to go anywhere yet, so 55/60 dollar will be formidable ceilings this time round.
While gold is the untradable wild beast for 2009, oil might be quite tradable in a bascially flat zone between 35 and 55 dollars, we might meander up and down here as the economic confidence boom and wane and vice versa.
===================================================================
VIX (May-09)
Hourly
Since I discovered the norm range is between 40-10 on the old moo river HQ, this one has been rather obliging. It finally crushed the 40's floor and has continued downwards. It would be interesting to have the VIX firmly rooted in the norm range, which would provide excellent guidance for trading oil and indices. We may even be able to work out some correlative relationships there.
Looking at the hourly chart of VIX is almost like looking at last year's index markets, waves after waves crushing floors after floors, relentless, ruthless, seeking the bottom of a very deep valley.
But we will stop somewhere, just look at the big numbers in 10's, like 30, 20, 10, or in 5's, 35, 25 and 15. We will stop somewhere and bounce and one can never rule out a final spike back up into 70/80's to shape up a long term double top (on yahoo yearly chart).
Vix is very volatile this year indeed, because it has charted its bull run for the past five years upwards so violently, now this tanking back down will be equally violent, almost a copycat of the stock markets for the past few years--it just proves the truth that whatever goes up will come down and vice versa.
based on 30 year data chart
Yearly
We are stuck in a flat bollinger trading zone, between $2.02 and $1.33 roughly, with a midline of $1.6688 which will serve as the key ceiling.
Momentum indicators are all over the place, not showing any bullish configurations so far.
Quarterly
On the cancles, one can detect a possible reversal pattern and some momentum indicators are bending upwards. The bollinger midline is near $1.8237, which will be a tremendous ceilingn for this year. No signs of confirmed reveral yet.
Monthly
Having collapsed from $2.12 top in 2007, cable is trying to bounce up and it is due for a massive pullback in any case. The price chart has a rounded bottom shape, though bullishness is dependent on the bottoming up process to break $1.60 at least. Some Momentum indicators are supportive, for example, Elder ray has a W shape and RSI and Repulse are supportive.
Weekly
The most interesting moo river is the downstream moo river on rsi from a few years back. We are currently crossing from the lowerbank to the upperbank, which still has some room for the upside yet. Repulse has a straight V shape, which is bullish and all momentum indicators are bullihed configured, signaling further continuation of the bull run.
We are climbing the ladder, first up is $1.52ish; next is $1.57ish; $1.66ish, but these figures need to adjusted as I only read them vertically, so it depends on the time we are going to take to go up and usually we do not shoot up vertically in normal circumstances.
Daily
This is where we can see most of the bullishness, with correlated upstream moo rivers across price and momentum indicators. And we have just tested the lowerbank again and we are pushing for a major top for this bull run in the not too distant future, somewhere into the $1.60's, which should complete the whole bull run, as by then daily rsi would have reached into 70's/80's.
I stay bullish for cable, as I can see British interest rate bottoming out and long term value investors might want to reposition themselves for this upturn of interest rate movement.
=======================================================================
Gold (SPOT)
30 year data chart
Yearly
We have had such a great bull run without a proper regurgitation, which is amazing. I am think maybe gold has overshot itself from its underlying norm value arond 500 dollars, but to date, the bullish run is continuing.
Quarterly
It is very clear that one can see a topping process here and bears are looking for bearish divergence signals, which are obvious across a few momentum indicators. Price is holding up well, maybe even a last dash over 1000 is not be ruled out to shape up an expanded triangle, a classical bull trap top, then the major collapse might take place. This is a very tricky market for a very volatile investment instrument. A break lower than 680 will bring throngs of bears out to play.
Monthly
The strong correlated bull run ran out steam in July 2008 when rsi fell out of the upstream moo river and has never recovered itself since.
Price is holding up well to suck in more late bulls, but the decaying of the bull run must be noted.
Near term, we are crossing in the new downstream moo river and a challenge of the former lowerbank of the upstream moo river near 73ish might not be ruled out, though it would be a fake rally to suck in more greedy bulls. when that fails, we will just start the next very aggressive Wave 3 down, taking price down towards 500 dollars.
Weekly
As we focus on this topping exercises, some bears are working on this double top possibility, though I quite like the expanded triangle scenario, where price cold potentially rise up to 1230 top, which would shock many and suck in further hesitatant bulls. Thus, with regard to leveraging and risks involved, it almost makes gold untradable for Private Investors, as the band will be too wide to trade, I would certainly suggest to avoid trading gold at all costs, or trade with compulsory or protected stops at all times. Gold is certainly not one instrument for averaging up or down, as this year it is going to break quite a few hearts.
Near term though, the momentum is downwards to fit in with the double top assumption by many. 1000 is pyschologically satisfying to be the top. Another dip towards 670 will get many bears excited, though that might just be the final leg of the current weakness.
Daily
We are stuck in the middle and could go either way in the ranges I have been talking about over long term horizons.
========================================================================
Nymex (June)
4 hourly
Oil is the barometer for economic confidence, it seems, just as gold is the barometer of fear.
Oil has had a great run and now we are coming to make sure a top is in for this current bull run, a spike into rsi 80's would surprise many, but by then, it is time to tank big again. We are not going to go anywhere yet, so 55/60 dollar will be formidable ceilings this time round.
While gold is the untradable wild beast for 2009, oil might be quite tradable in a bascially flat zone between 35 and 55 dollars, we might meander up and down here as the economic confidence boom and wane and vice versa.
===================================================================
VIX (May-09)
Hourly
Since I discovered the norm range is between 40-10 on the old moo river HQ, this one has been rather obliging. It finally crushed the 40's floor and has continued downwards. It would be interesting to have the VIX firmly rooted in the norm range, which would provide excellent guidance for trading oil and indices. We may even be able to work out some correlative relationships there.
Looking at the hourly chart of VIX is almost like looking at last year's index markets, waves after waves crushing floors after floors, relentless, ruthless, seeking the bottom of a very deep valley.
But we will stop somewhere, just look at the big numbers in 10's, like 30, 20, 10, or in 5's, 35, 25 and 15. We will stop somewhere and bounce and one can never rule out a final spike back up into 70/80's to shape up a long term double top (on yahoo yearly chart).
Vix is very volatile this year indeed, because it has charted its bull run for the past five years upwards so violently, now this tanking back down will be equally violent, almost a copycat of the stock markets for the past few years--it just proves the truth that whatever goes up will come down and vice versa.
Saturday, 2 May 2009
Week 18 (3rd May-9th May): Asian Moo River Watch
Hong Kong (Hangseng 42)
Yearly
We are still in a bearish mode with a red para sar dot, though the yearly candle is green, but it is a long year.
Quarterly
Still very bearish here as well with a continuous flow of red para sar dot, though the candle is green for now, a quarter is a long quarter in the market as well.
If you really want to, you can draw a downstream moo river there, and we are challenging the upperbank there at the moment. A break higher will be significant, as is a rejection there.
Monthly
We have definitely broken the downstream moo river there with the green April candle poking itself outside the river and now we start outside the old moo river, but somehow we have fallen out of the upstream moo river there, so we still need to see where the lowerbank is to determined the depth of this upstream moo river, but the para sar dots are still red in a series of red dots.
The bollinger midline is near 20290, which should provide a ceiling of some sort for this kind bull run, if we do go that far.
Weekly
This is where bulls have been camping for the past 5 weeks on 5 green para sar dots. We did break the downstream moo river here, now we are asking whether this is an ABC corrective move or a 5 wave impulsive move.
If you link the candle tail bottoms of W44 of 2008 and W47 of 2008 and you will see cearly that we are stuck under the former weekly superhammer lifeline. That itself is bearish, previous support turning into a key resistance, or a ceiling. If you parallel this former lifeline, then you will have an upstream moo river at a very minor positive angle.
It is possible that we will last week's range a repetition this week, between 14400 and 15600, which still gives you a range of 1200 to play with.
Momentum indicators are saying if it is a falling week, it is a good thing provide it does not break the lowerbanks of the upstream moo rivers on various indicators. While a rising week will probably bring bears out in good number to sell hard.
For now, we are meandering across the river from the upperbank to the lowerbank in a level sort of crossing and this river has the width to cross until June.
Daily
We are struggling a bit with a row of red para sar dots crushing down as the ceiling to stop the current bull run.
Momentum indicators have turned down. Potentially, we could turn down a bit first when Hong Kong opens tomorrow night and then rally back.
=========
Overall, Hong Kong is the prime example of what will follow after the end of the bear market. At the moment, it is showing us a flat bullbear battle zone uner 16000. If we break 16000,then we might go for the 20700 magic number, which should provide a ceiling. For now, we meander, dither and think about where to go from here.
====================================================================================
Japan (Nikkei 225)
30 year data chart
Yearly
Japan is stuck in a very tight triangle on yearly price chart, either this year or next year, there has got to be a decisive move out of this triangle, because we have meandered in this flat bullbear zone between 19000 and 8200 roughly for 17 long years. Japan is the scary foresight into the future of this bear market in the West, meaning we could be stuck in a flat zone for decades as well. But I have always said that is far too pessimistic a view, because the Japanese depression is self-inflicted and they are a unique race of people who are capable of extremes, extreme excellence in things like quality and work and extremes manics like never ending depressions. I certainly think we will follow Hong Kong out of this slump more quickly than following the Japanese example.
Quarterly
It seems to be pointless once we have looked at the yearly to look across shorter time horizons as we are still meandering within that range between 19000 and 8200, which is a huge range to meander, though this year the key resistance is 16000 or even 13200, a breach of which will be significant.
There is plenty of room to manoevour yet in the downstream moo river on rsi.
Monthly
Let's be brief about it, we have W'ed up from the lowerbank in the downstream moo river on RSI and now there is still some room for the upside yet, having crossed the midline.
Price'wise, a challenge of 10000, key psychological barrier, looks imminent, or even unavoidable.
Weekly
Rsi is almost hitting the upperbank, so either further hesitation or acceleration, which will surprise some in the world. Japan showed surprising strength in the absence of Hong Kong last Friday and now the momentum seems to be gathering pace.
Daily
This is where the surprise took place on Friday, and there are some pretty oddly looking correlated W's there, hanging in the midair, meaning the 10000 challenge to be missed before it finally sulks into depression again. I can certainly see a quick challenge of 10000 this week and then tank big. Does this give further clues to the outlook of the rest of the world?
Good luck, bulls and bears, I don't trade Asia, if I did, my motto there would be no shorts until Japan hits 10000.
(to be continued tomorrow)
Yearly
We are still in a bearish mode with a red para sar dot, though the yearly candle is green, but it is a long year.
Quarterly
Still very bearish here as well with a continuous flow of red para sar dot, though the candle is green for now, a quarter is a long quarter in the market as well.
If you really want to, you can draw a downstream moo river there, and we are challenging the upperbank there at the moment. A break higher will be significant, as is a rejection there.
Monthly
We have definitely broken the downstream moo river there with the green April candle poking itself outside the river and now we start outside the old moo river, but somehow we have fallen out of the upstream moo river there, so we still need to see where the lowerbank is to determined the depth of this upstream moo river, but the para sar dots are still red in a series of red dots.
The bollinger midline is near 20290, which should provide a ceiling of some sort for this kind bull run, if we do go that far.
Weekly
This is where bulls have been camping for the past 5 weeks on 5 green para sar dots. We did break the downstream moo river here, now we are asking whether this is an ABC corrective move or a 5 wave impulsive move.
If you link the candle tail bottoms of W44 of 2008 and W47 of 2008 and you will see cearly that we are stuck under the former weekly superhammer lifeline. That itself is bearish, previous support turning into a key resistance, or a ceiling. If you parallel this former lifeline, then you will have an upstream moo river at a very minor positive angle.
It is possible that we will last week's range a repetition this week, between 14400 and 15600, which still gives you a range of 1200 to play with.
Momentum indicators are saying if it is a falling week, it is a good thing provide it does not break the lowerbanks of the upstream moo rivers on various indicators. While a rising week will probably bring bears out in good number to sell hard.
For now, we are meandering across the river from the upperbank to the lowerbank in a level sort of crossing and this river has the width to cross until June.
Daily
We are struggling a bit with a row of red para sar dots crushing down as the ceiling to stop the current bull run.
Momentum indicators have turned down. Potentially, we could turn down a bit first when Hong Kong opens tomorrow night and then rally back.
=========
Overall, Hong Kong is the prime example of what will follow after the end of the bear market. At the moment, it is showing us a flat bullbear battle zone uner 16000. If we break 16000,then we might go for the 20700 magic number, which should provide a ceiling. For now, we meander, dither and think about where to go from here.
====================================================================================
Japan (Nikkei 225)
30 year data chart
Yearly
Japan is stuck in a very tight triangle on yearly price chart, either this year or next year, there has got to be a decisive move out of this triangle, because we have meandered in this flat bullbear zone between 19000 and 8200 roughly for 17 long years. Japan is the scary foresight into the future of this bear market in the West, meaning we could be stuck in a flat zone for decades as well. But I have always said that is far too pessimistic a view, because the Japanese depression is self-inflicted and they are a unique race of people who are capable of extremes, extreme excellence in things like quality and work and extremes manics like never ending depressions. I certainly think we will follow Hong Kong out of this slump more quickly than following the Japanese example.
Quarterly
It seems to be pointless once we have looked at the yearly to look across shorter time horizons as we are still meandering within that range between 19000 and 8200, which is a huge range to meander, though this year the key resistance is 16000 or even 13200, a breach of which will be significant.
There is plenty of room to manoevour yet in the downstream moo river on rsi.
Monthly
Let's be brief about it, we have W'ed up from the lowerbank in the downstream moo river on RSI and now there is still some room for the upside yet, having crossed the midline.
Price'wise, a challenge of 10000, key psychological barrier, looks imminent, or even unavoidable.
Weekly
Rsi is almost hitting the upperbank, so either further hesitation or acceleration, which will surprise some in the world. Japan showed surprising strength in the absence of Hong Kong last Friday and now the momentum seems to be gathering pace.
Daily
This is where the surprise took place on Friday, and there are some pretty oddly looking correlated W's there, hanging in the midair, meaning the 10000 challenge to be missed before it finally sulks into depression again. I can certainly see a quick challenge of 10000 this week and then tank big. Does this give further clues to the outlook of the rest of the world?
Good luck, bulls and bears, I don't trade Asia, if I did, my motto there would be no shorts until Japan hits 10000.
(to be continued tomorrow)
Thursday, 30 April 2009
drawing moo rivers
This is where I want to teach you fishing rather than providing you with free fish, meaning I am going to show you how to draw the moo rivers in my own ways.
We will start with a simple drawing of a few correlated moo rivers on Cable.
Now, I welcome your comments over the next few weeks as to what you see from these moo rivers and what your trading plans are according to the moo river watch on cable and what your results are and what modifications you have made to improve your results.
Good luck.
We will start with a simple drawing of a few correlated moo rivers on Cable.
Now, I welcome your comments over the next few weeks as to what you see from these moo rivers and what your trading plans are according to the moo river watch on cable and what your results are and what modifications you have made to improve your results.
Good luck.
Tuesday, 28 April 2009
the Battle of Diamond
Let's focus on the Battle of Diamond.
It is on the weekly price chart on FTSE100.
Load up you candle chart on that one.
It all started in January 2009, W1 candle,the green one.You link up the bottoms of weekly candles 1, 4 and 10.
There you have the vertically slanting edge of the diamond on the left.
Then, you link up the candle body tops of Week 4 and week 6 and parallel to link up the Candle tail bottom of week 10 in March. There, you have the horizontally slanting edge.
Now we have the two sides of the diamond, parallel and complete the diamond.
This is what I am looking at and it has worked a treat so far.
So have a go and make some comments here.
Good luck.
Ps Key resistances: 4250/4450 and 4650; key supports: 4000; and the magic number 3930.
It is on the weekly price chart on FTSE100.
Load up you candle chart on that one.
It all started in January 2009, W1 candle,the green one.You link up the bottoms of weekly candles 1, 4 and 10.
There you have the vertically slanting edge of the diamond on the left.
Then, you link up the candle body tops of Week 4 and week 6 and parallel to link up the Candle tail bottom of week 10 in March. There, you have the horizontally slanting edge.
Now we have the two sides of the diamond, parallel and complete the diamond.
This is what I am looking at and it has worked a treat so far.
So have a go and make some comments here.
Good luck.
Ps Key resistances: 4250/4450 and 4650; key supports: 4000; and the magic number 3930.
Sunday, 26 April 2009
Week 17 (26th April-2nd May): FTSE100 Moo River Watch
This is my bread and butter, as I only trade ftse100 this year.
Yearly
We are in the same deep trouble as dow, hanging onto the bolling midline 4560, in fact, if we are slightly deep down than the yankies. If we can get over 4600 as a yearly finish, then there is light at the end of the tunnel. 4600/4700 will be this year's ceiling for the majority of the year, imho.
Momentum indicators are still bearish.
Quarterly
We are stuck in a ginormous downstream moo river and we are trying to meander and move across to the upperbank, but we have not managed to disengage ourselves away from the lower bollinger band yet. For now, we are stuck between 3600 and 4240, meandering zone for this quarter.
Momentum indicators are not bullish, though they are showing some sort of bouncibility.
Monthly
This is the second monthly green candle, a third one might bring doubts to the minds of many a bear, but we have not finished this month yet.
RSI has a W shape off 23, which is significant. Other momentum indicators are not bullish yet. Could the bear market have finished in March 2009? There are quite a few similarities between 2009 and 2003, as follows:
1. the bottoms of the rsi level are similar;
2. the bottoms of the macd level are similar;
3. the bottoms of the stoc level are similar.
So this particular W is a huge worry to the bears. What if the bear market has finished and look what happened in 2003, it meandered forward quietly but relentlessly without a regurgitation until it reached 4600ish level and then the pullback is shallow, above 4300.
Weekly
The bullish momentums are there and rsi is breaching the last of the bear defence--the upperbank of a very long running downstream moo river.
On the price chart, there is a diamond shape and they say diamonds are for ever, a breach of either side will be very significant indeed. The lowerbank of this diamond is near 3900 and the upperbank is near 4350ish.
And finally, we are having a green Para Sar dot, which could be one of the many. It does look a bit worrying for bears.
Momentum indicators are not at the top yet, e.g., rsi, stoc etc, there is still enough momentum left to push this market higher.
But it is like a slow moving slithering snake up the ladder, so this week's range is forecasted to be between 4050 and 4300.
Daily
This is turning very bullish, with a correlated pair of W on rsi and price, with price penetrating a triangular bear defence and now there is a green para sar dot and bollinger midline is turning upwards.
Momentum indicators are not yet overbought, so bulls are getting ready for an assault on the diamond upperbank this week.
The whole world will be watching what the FTSE will be doing this week, as it has lagged all the other indices by a long mile and now it seems ready to motor ahead.
Tomorrow, I will be trading within the range between 4080 and 4180,as I think we will meander tamely for a bit to throw some bears into excitement. The final assault on the diamond upperbank might happen on 1st May upon 4300.
Good luck, bulls and bears, get ready to take part in this battle of the Diamond.
Yearly
We are in the same deep trouble as dow, hanging onto the bolling midline 4560, in fact, if we are slightly deep down than the yankies. If we can get over 4600 as a yearly finish, then there is light at the end of the tunnel. 4600/4700 will be this year's ceiling for the majority of the year, imho.
Momentum indicators are still bearish.
Quarterly
We are stuck in a ginormous downstream moo river and we are trying to meander and move across to the upperbank, but we have not managed to disengage ourselves away from the lower bollinger band yet. For now, we are stuck between 3600 and 4240, meandering zone for this quarter.
Momentum indicators are not bullish, though they are showing some sort of bouncibility.
Monthly
This is the second monthly green candle, a third one might bring doubts to the minds of many a bear, but we have not finished this month yet.
RSI has a W shape off 23, which is significant. Other momentum indicators are not bullish yet. Could the bear market have finished in March 2009? There are quite a few similarities between 2009 and 2003, as follows:
1. the bottoms of the rsi level are similar;
2. the bottoms of the macd level are similar;
3. the bottoms of the stoc level are similar.
So this particular W is a huge worry to the bears. What if the bear market has finished and look what happened in 2003, it meandered forward quietly but relentlessly without a regurgitation until it reached 4600ish level and then the pullback is shallow, above 4300.
Weekly
The bullish momentums are there and rsi is breaching the last of the bear defence--the upperbank of a very long running downstream moo river.
On the price chart, there is a diamond shape and they say diamonds are for ever, a breach of either side will be very significant indeed. The lowerbank of this diamond is near 3900 and the upperbank is near 4350ish.
And finally, we are having a green Para Sar dot, which could be one of the many. It does look a bit worrying for bears.
Momentum indicators are not at the top yet, e.g., rsi, stoc etc, there is still enough momentum left to push this market higher.
But it is like a slow moving slithering snake up the ladder, so this week's range is forecasted to be between 4050 and 4300.
Daily
This is turning very bullish, with a correlated pair of W on rsi and price, with price penetrating a triangular bear defence and now there is a green para sar dot and bollinger midline is turning upwards.
Momentum indicators are not yet overbought, so bulls are getting ready for an assault on the diamond upperbank this week.
The whole world will be watching what the FTSE will be doing this week, as it has lagged all the other indices by a long mile and now it seems ready to motor ahead.
Tomorrow, I will be trading within the range between 4080 and 4180,as I think we will meander tamely for a bit to throw some bears into excitement. The final assault on the diamond upperbank might happen on 1st May upon 4300.
Good luck, bulls and bears, get ready to take part in this battle of the Diamond.
Week 17 (26th April-2nd May): American Moo River Watch
Dow
(30 year data charts from IG)
Yearly
We are really hanging on the mid bollinger line here,off a very steep cliff. The midline is 8023 and the lower bollinger band is near 1461, I for one don't want to imagine what a world we will be living in, if we headed that way down there. Let's not get there, O Obama, please and this is the year to decide the fate of the yankies as well as the global economy.
Momentum indicators are all bearish. RSI is quite interesting, it is lying along the lowerbank of the ongoing downstream moo river, which is highly disappointing and worrying for bulls, as it really needs to bounce off the lowerbank, even a dead cat would bounce off there.
Quarterly
No bullish signals there yet.
Price is still tangoing with the lower bollinger band, which is disappointing for the bulls. To stop the rot, we must pull ourselves away from it and start to meander across over to the upperbank in the downstream moo rivers.
RSI has bent up against lowerbank 2 (yes, there are three lowerbanks and one upperbank) and I think it is using lowerbank 1 and 3 as the river banks for this current bounce. No decision time yet.
The other momentum indicators are all trying to bend upwards, but not strongly so far.
Monthly
It is not strongly bullish either here, though it is a bear market rally.
Price has managed to get away from the grip of the lower bollinger band, now faces a considerable ceiling near 8950ish this month.
Momentum indicators are trying to support, rsi seems to have some more room for upside yet.
Weekly
It is here we see similar situations as of Hong Kong, we are facing a decision time.
For Dow, it is the mid bollinger line near 7978 which is tangling itself up with. On that particular chart, it does look like a flat zone between 6500 and 9100, though a kiss of 9100ish first will be bearish while a double bottom near 6500 now is actually bullish. But the market seems to favour the first option, which will bring more pains later.
RSI and Momentum have hit upperbanks in the upstream moo rivers and other indicators are still bullishly supportive.
On price, dow has dropped out of the primary upstream moo river, now seems to be stuck in two scenarios:
1. in a not so sharp upstream moo river, requiring a crossing over towards the lowerbank near 7000ish;
2. in a triangle between 8530 and 7777 this week, a break higher will bring us back into the primary upstream moo river. I think this is where the market is going to work between 8530 and 7800ish, with early weakness perhaps to be reversed into a surprising rally towards the end of the week or vice versa.
Daily
We have a set of continuation correlated W there as well, on price and rsi, though they might just be bull traps, a test of daily rsi at 40 will bring more determined or aggressive bulls out to play.
Good luck, bulls and bears.
(30 year data charts from IG)
Yearly
We are really hanging on the mid bollinger line here,off a very steep cliff. The midline is 8023 and the lower bollinger band is near 1461, I for one don't want to imagine what a world we will be living in, if we headed that way down there. Let's not get there, O Obama, please and this is the year to decide the fate of the yankies as well as the global economy.
Momentum indicators are all bearish. RSI is quite interesting, it is lying along the lowerbank of the ongoing downstream moo river, which is highly disappointing and worrying for bulls, as it really needs to bounce off the lowerbank, even a dead cat would bounce off there.
Quarterly
No bullish signals there yet.
Price is still tangoing with the lower bollinger band, which is disappointing for the bulls. To stop the rot, we must pull ourselves away from it and start to meander across over to the upperbank in the downstream moo rivers.
RSI has bent up against lowerbank 2 (yes, there are three lowerbanks and one upperbank) and I think it is using lowerbank 1 and 3 as the river banks for this current bounce. No decision time yet.
The other momentum indicators are all trying to bend upwards, but not strongly so far.
Monthly
It is not strongly bullish either here, though it is a bear market rally.
Price has managed to get away from the grip of the lower bollinger band, now faces a considerable ceiling near 8950ish this month.
Momentum indicators are trying to support, rsi seems to have some more room for upside yet.
Weekly
It is here we see similar situations as of Hong Kong, we are facing a decision time.
For Dow, it is the mid bollinger line near 7978 which is tangling itself up with. On that particular chart, it does look like a flat zone between 6500 and 9100, though a kiss of 9100ish first will be bearish while a double bottom near 6500 now is actually bullish. But the market seems to favour the first option, which will bring more pains later.
RSI and Momentum have hit upperbanks in the upstream moo rivers and other indicators are still bullishly supportive.
On price, dow has dropped out of the primary upstream moo river, now seems to be stuck in two scenarios:
1. in a not so sharp upstream moo river, requiring a crossing over towards the lowerbank near 7000ish;
2. in a triangle between 8530 and 7777 this week, a break higher will bring us back into the primary upstream moo river. I think this is where the market is going to work between 8530 and 7800ish, with early weakness perhaps to be reversed into a surprising rally towards the end of the week or vice versa.
Daily
We have a set of continuation correlated W there as well, on price and rsi, though they might just be bull traps, a test of daily rsi at 40 will bring more determined or aggressive bulls out to play.
Good luck, bulls and bears.
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