FTSE100
30 year data charts
Yearly
This is the scary bit, as there is the first red para sar dot, after three green para sar dots for the past three years, but yearly ranges are difficult to be useful for day to day trading, as last year's green para sar dot was no use to bulls at all.
Still, we are struggling with the bollinger midline near 4564, which is why this year 4600ish zone is a key ceiling for ftse100.
Quarterly
We are tangling with the lower bollinger band for the past three quarters. Momentum indicators are still not that bullish. This quarter's maximum range could be between 3570 and 4700, though I suspect we have already seen the quarter low for now, which was 3836 and we are yet to find out the quarterly high, in the 4400-4700 zone.
Monthly
We are meandering to cross from the lowerbank to the upperbank in a ginormous downstream moo river. While a vertical crossing will take us up to 5100, but it shouldn't happen in a downstream moo river, as vertical crossing in a downstream moo river only happens downwards, usually.
The maximum monthly range could be between 4740 and 3660, I suspect we will be able to stay above 4000 all quarter now to confuse many a bear.
One noticeable feature on monthly is that a few momentum indicators have escaped the clasp of downstream moo rivers, which is a significant development.
The key debate these days is whether the bear market has ended in March or whether this is yet another bear market rally. In terms of price, ftse100 is lagging many other indices in the world, something is brewing there.
The problem for bears in a more sustained rally is that the indices around the world take turns to take up the leadership, as Japan did in the absence of Hong Kong and FTSE in moments of weakness or uncertainty for Dow.
Weekly
We have had a W on Momentum indicator itself and everything is bullish here as with other indices, but significantly, we have only had two green para sar dots, so there is plenty of bullish momentum left yet.
We have talked about the Battle of the Diamond on weekly price chart. Weekly rsi has broken a long running dowstream moo river last week, a touch of 55ish will falsify that downstream moo river altogether. However, several other indicators are almost hitting upperbanks in upstream moo rivers, signaling a near term ceiling is not too far away.
As for the weekly range, there are two distinctive possibilities:
1. bullish: we gap up to dash towards 4440ish weekly top in fairly quick successions, surpring many a doubtful bears and then after reaching that target, the only way is downwards towards 4000, major support. There, the weekly range could be 4440 and 4100;
2. bearish: we gap down tonight and stay under that gap for the rest week in a tight range of 4210 and 4050.
So it all depends on Asia tonight.
Daily
A look at the momentum indicators gives me more confidence for the bullish scenario, though you might want to wait after tonight's Asian trading to make up your minds.
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Trading strategy: no shorts until we have seen 4400 minimum; once we have seen 4400, turn into an aggressive bear immediately.
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The daily range for Monday 4th May could be 4220 and 4330, though the UK market is closed for a bank holiday.
ReplyDeleteWatch that hourly moo river on rsi and that triangle on MACD and the daily moo rivers.
good luck.
busy today with further work outside, overnight, Asia booms loudly, so Plan A (bullish) seems to be working well.
ReplyDeleteEither the diamond holds, which sees 4400/4470 top and meandering down, or if the diamond is breached, then we could potentially go to 4600/4800, which will be excellent selling opportunities, but it seems the markets are ready to go parabolic for the final mile, be warned if you are a bear, bad timing costs dearly.
ReplyDeleteFrom 4400, I will be placing shorts all the way up, as I also lack the enthusiasm to buy above 4400, at this stage, anyways.
Lloyds could surprise tomorrow on the better side, Barclays should confirm the good side on Thursday and RBS should shock the market with some terrible blackholes on Friday. The weekly dividend on Tuesday night is a huge one, so some big players might be planning to have the cake and eat it for free again. Shorting should be restrained until after Tuesday. Thursday night and Friday will be plausible shorting periods.
I was too exhausted to look at the market.
ReplyDeleteToday's range could 4360 and 4250, some meandering before we make a decision, perhaps.
cashed in my longs and sold one at 4340 just now, I know we have not reached 4400 yet, but it just does not feel right to buy it just at the moment
ReplyDeletewell, moo river watch actually demands a lot of energy too. Last night, I had a look, but my brain just did not click. I think I am still recovering here. Monday's range prediction was not bad at all, 4260 and 4334 actual against the forecasted range of 4220 and 4330.
ReplyDeletethere is significant bearish divergence on hourly momentum indicators, e.g., rsi and there is a huge more than 100 pointer gap opening today, as we closed Friday near 4243, so a scalping short here is well worth the effort. In any case, I won't placing longs over 4300 any more, though we have yet to reach the 4400/4600 topping zone.
ReplyDeleteMonday's virtual rise (in the absence of the closed UK markets) has penetrated a key bear defence near 4250, which I used the old upperbank of the ginormous downstream moo river from September 2008 to draw the line in the sand for bulls and bears.
This morning, we will see a dampner to start with, almost like today's weather.
Key supports are near 4300; 4275; 4250ish, though I could see it go as low as 4220.
It should be a small scalping day today, with neither getting any satisfactions if you are a trendtrader.
In theory, one should still focus on the upside, though it is getting so anti-gravity that it is hard to ride it all the way to the top.
ReplyDeleteThe choice is an individual one, but the hourly upstream moo river seems to be holding up well so far.
this is where mistakes are easily made, because the mind is not determined any more, one wavers between greed and fear a lot.
ReplyDeletesomehow, the overall top could be just under 4800 for this bull run or 18th May, whichever comes first.
ReplyDeletetrading is becoming more difficult now, there is some bull legs left in this run, particularly with regard to ftse, it has not yet gone parabolic to signal the top.
this is where the trader and the analyst in me struggle against each other, as the trader no longer wants to buy above 4300, while the analyst sees more upside still for this bull run, I am stuck!
ReplyDeleteso today's range was 4373 and 4311, my forecasted range of 4360 and 4250 is quite a way off there.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow's range will be 4350 and 4250, and my strategy is to keep on selling it until we see 4200, then consider rebuy.
ReplyDeletethis could be a very tight meandering week, so 40/50 pointer a go is better than flight of fantasy 100/150 pointer a go.
ReplyDeleteI will be here to scalp for two days, so can't wait for tomorrow.
while the daily para sar dots are still green, we have just had two red para sar dots emerging, which should alert some much interested bears.
ReplyDeletewell, the big boys like to have their cake (big dividends) and eat it ( a rise on Wednesday mornings).
ReplyDeleteNow, we must find the dominant moo rivers. On 15m rsi, link up lows on 14 May with yesterday's low, parallel to link up top on 5th May 10:45. I think this is the dominant moo river, to embrace some downside from here.
I am hoping I will my promise not to buy above 4300 for now.
Still need to find a correlated downstream moo river on price chart.
there is a possible correlated downstream moo river on 15m price chart as well, if you link up tops 5th May and this morning's top, if that is the top, then we shold come down to test 4290ish around 11am; then bounce up to 4320 again, after that, it might just be time to fall through the triangle and reach 4250ish by 15:00pm, let's see how it goes.
ReplyDeleteAlways have a plan B, for me, plan A is shorts and Plan B is average up and short from higher up.
ive got that downstream moo drawn in and am prepared to be patient. curr short 4355.
ReplyDeletethank you for your advice re asia last week. Id covered my 4290 short on friday then closed mon morning as all bearish tendencies had vanished. Unfortunately also closed the jun long way too early.. C'est la vie..
ps. next big thing on iii
while the end of shelf life for the Battle of the Diamond or the Diamond is coming near, I am now going to learn about the butterflies and try to figure out how this butterfly on weekly will pan out. So the Battle of the Diamond will be followed by the Flight of the Butterfly. More to come, on this Moo River Watch HQ, though at the moment, only Bongo is keeping me company here, no, I meant NBT or whoever you are.
ReplyDeleteI am holding onto my shorts too, either 20's on 15m rsi or 4300/4250, whichever comes first.
ReplyDeletesee that bounce at 12pm, that should do the business now. I know bulls are not satisfied, as we have not seen 4400 yet, but maybe, 4380 is close enough.
ReplyDeleteyou can draw a similar downstream moo river 15m Momentum Indicator as well.
ReplyDeleteand draw some more downstream moo rivers on hourly as well, e.g., hourly rsi, linking the two tops on 4th and 5th May, maybe one more bounce left in the bull legs, then we should come down fast.
ReplyDeletegot them all drawn in now.. darn these bulls.. prepared to add at 4400. Be happy to see 4320 today.
ReplyDeletenbt or just Tom.lol
still learning.
got it slightly wrong, my friend, but I think we have seen the top now, so will hold onto the ride south now.
ReplyDeleteit just needs that final parabolic spike before it tanks down big
it has just hit the rock solid diamond wall, I am quietly confident that it will tank.
no more buys until we see 4200's, when it comes down, it will come down big, only meandering to confuse a few late bulls for now.
ReplyDeletewell the battle ive had with Mr Taxus Baccata this afternoon was nothing compared to the battle between bears and bulls today. Short was added at 4430. Also hoping we have seen the top for a few days. 4250 on my mind.
ReplyDeletenbt
still learning
Well, I haven't done my simplistic EWT for a long while, lol, let's give it a go to ftse100.
ReplyDeleteWave 1 from 3470 to 4164;
Wave 2 from 4164 to 3747;
Wave 3 from 3747 to 4444;
Wave 4 from 4444 to 4180;
Wave 5 from 4180 to 4606, final.
As soon as we have had Wave 4, which might be all the action from here to next week and we might see 4606 in the week beginning 18th May, yes, 18th May, TG's magic date.
next selling clusters: 4600 and then 4800/4900.
ReplyDeleteI am prepared for the worst case scenario.
today's range might be between 4480 and 4330
ReplyDeleteearly spike to be sold, I remain a bear, with rsi hitting upperbanks on weekly and daily, I think I am done with the upside, pending a little residue run towards 4500.
ReplyDeletenever say too high or too low, to go against the moo rivers or trends.
ReplyDeleteat the moment, the trend is up, but you can never predict when and where the market is going to stop and take a breather.
in an upstream moo river, even selling against upperbanks are not high probability trades.
another lesson learnt.
two things that come to mind
ReplyDelete8600 and 8th May are the two I have pencilled in for reversal points from a long way back.
we are almost there now.
still need to be prepared for 5000.
key supports for the bulls
ReplyDelete4420; 4330; 4300; 4250 and 4200. More work for bears to do, once we get under 4420
looks like 8600 on dow does the job for bears finally, though my weekly forecast was for a top near 8700.
ReplyDeletehold your nerves, it will come down, once it is under 4420, it should flood down. patience is required.
ReplyDeletewe have just kicked off the journey to the south, either ABC or 12345, so the first wave won't be too deep and there will be a bounce up, but the second wave down will be a brilliant one to ride down on.
ReplyDeletefinally, bears roared back, what a comeback from the bears, really, for now, it is only a healthy pullback as long as we hold above 4200/4250, nothing too alarming yet
ReplyDeletenow scalp a bit, only shorts though for now
ReplyDeletemore decisions about the future trading to come up soon, after 1-2 weeks of meandering within the diamond.
ReplyDelete1. Business as usual: as long as the upstream moo river holds, buy on dips and dives towards lowerbank, 4075 max downside, keep on doing that until the trend reverses;
2. butterfly: it says it is a complete reversal, now headed towards 3900/4000.
Need to think about that, for now, it is a bear's party time, I will keep on selling on spikes and rallies.
it really depends on what happens next week, if we stay high and jab into 4500 again next week, the downside will be tremendous, at least 4100/4200 for the next two weeks, breaching of these will take us to 3900/4000; if we fall tomorrow and stay low next week, the week after we might see 4606 finally.
ReplyDeletevolatile session coming up, with the release of stress test on yankie banks, be prepared.
ReplyDeletevery glad I was not screen watching today. Missed my stop by less than 10 points!. Stop now at todays high. So hopefully straight on down with no more messing around..
ReplyDeletehey trigger,
ReplyDeletefinally a pullback this arvo, happy days but still in the red.
how you getting along with your popout graphs to back up your summaries? keen to learn but still not sure how you draw your lines and struggling to visualise.
much appreciated
Blake,
ReplyDeleteI am having trouble loading them onto this site, seeking advice from Stubear at the moment.
But you have to start practice drawing them moo rivers as I mention them here or on III.
Once you have drawn one, which makes sense, I can assure you it is fairly easy from there onwards. It is all in the eyes or in our minds.
Take care
NBT
ReplyDeletewell done, I can assure you that it was not pleasant watching the screen today, but we will get there eventually, the moos say so, the butterfly say so...
good luck
hourly rsi has penetrated 40, which is the signal for more weakness to come, as in a bull run, pullbacks tend to be kept above 40, the reverse is true for bear run, any bounce is normally kept under 60.
ReplyDeleteI am staying shorts for now.
just made a discovery on rsi, well, it was more like some new meaning coming to my mind, and it clicked, will be very useful for the moo river watch indeed.
ReplyDeletethis is spooky. I have also just had a discovery re RSI. I have a feeling that my charts have been misleading me.. I have been using etrade and their charts for my trading. Now when you said RSI had penetrated 40, I was about to say hang on the lowest at 7pm was 42.. however I just checked the charts on IG (redundant account set up 2 yrs ago) and RSI was 38 at 7pm. Just need to work out why the difference but from what people have been saying on iii, I really should be using IGs charts..
ReplyDeleteps.wot u discovered then...
laters, my friend, patience, it is part of systems development, more correlation stuff etc
ReplyDeletebut your discovery is an interesting one too, sometimes I feel someone has moved my banks, lol
here comes the biggest speculation of all times:
ReplyDelete1. 8th May, big bear day down into 4200's, if not touching 4190ish;
2. 18th May, looking at the world at a little summit;
3. 21st May, things can only get better from here;
4. 26th May, no bulls and bears want to miss this particular day.
not many are looking this way, so let's keep this bit a secret at the HQ.
im chock full of patience lol.
ReplyDeletemums the word..
sl
4450-4250 for today
ReplyDeletemaybe 4450-4340 to start with, with 4250 reserved for later, anyways, we will see 4250 at least before we see any continuation of the bull run
ReplyDeletedouble checked on the bearishness
ReplyDelete1. spx500, 4 hourly, double M'd on rsi against 70;
2. uk banks: daily rsi showing M signs there;
3. dow: M'd on rsi against 70 and M on momentum indicator, having reached my overall target of 8600 as well, a bounce up is not ruled out, but the trend is down now for a few days. need to break 8300 first, to reach 8100, remember my weekly range forecasted was 7900-8700!
4. Asia seems to have completed its second bending up on weekly rsi to form a potential M there, though it seems that they are still bullish.
So overall, shorting for me, though there is still a risk of double top near 4500/8600.
good luck.
forget the intricacy, then the dominant theme is one of profit taking or bulls taking a breather from here onwards, so it is time to test your resolve.
ReplyDeletewon't be in today, but perhaps that is the best thing, it is a trending day, and the only way is down, despite all the intricacy to fox a few late bulls, we are due for a healthy pullback. Big boys know it and we all know it, but some of us are reluctant to cash in the profitable longs, c'est greed!
ReplyDeletetiming is always a weak link in the moo river watch system, but I give it a go
ReplyDelete1. 11th hour, we should reach 4300ish;
2. 18th hour, we should be in the 4200's.
see how it goes.
not a good week, almost a bad hair week.
ReplyDeleteneed to regroup and rethink over the weekend.
it has been a good run, but the anti-gravity has finally got to me as well, it has not been easy, fighting all the doom and gloom, in this doom and gloom world of ours.
but that is trading, it is never an easy game, for any systems, let alone there is the human opeartor.
have a nice weekend.