This is a brief diary of the service provided to the Premium Mooriverwatch Club, so that everyone can catch a glimpse of what this subscription service is about.
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18:11pm, 24-07-11, maybe this blog is too long!
13:48pm, 24-07-11, just done all seven reports, probably gone back to sleep. Good day.
09:32am, 23-07-11, some weekly reflections again:
"It has been an interesting week. The constraint of the fun bet series in terms of number of fun bets left really put the pressure on me and in the end, while the series had a good run to the end, it did not manage to get back into profit, which is a shame.
I still think the main problem in trading for me is my duality as a mooriverwatcher and moorivertrader. The Mooriverwatcher sees too far ahead while the moorivertrader sometimes trades on that farsight, which is not good. The trader has to go through the motions/emotions. For example, there is a dark tunnel and we are walking through it. The deeper we go, the more fearful as the darkness gathers and your heart thumps loud. But the mooriverwatcher has seen the end of the tunnel, so the moorivertrader trades without going through the emotions of fear, etc. That is the main problem for me. I have to trade this moment while being able to see tomorrow (well, sometimes!), lol.
We have started on another new fun bet series. For this particular series, I will focus on primary calls only, so trading on a daily basis may be far and between, but the results should improve. Really need to put in a good series to turn around the negativity of the last series. All to play for, or they say, or trade for. Still, I will be as flexible as possible in terms of instruments that we trade, always trade the one with primary signals, i.e., the ones with least risk and most profit potentials. But do not hesitate to email me whenever you want an update on something else.
For this week, I am awarding our Al and Lady S as Moostars of the week, while MS has had a fab week too and MG has kept us informed of the useful gaps and KK is learning to grasp the moo linguistics. Al's monstrous short from over 6000 was banked near the bottom this week and Lady S held onto her nerves and her Barclays shares and came out trimphantly, yet again, while some had bailed out just before the bank rally kicked in!!!!! Well done, Al and Lady S. and happy holidays, Lady S.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5720-5940 (actual: 5735-5968);
Dow: 12630-12330 (actual: 12800-12294);
Gold: $1630-$1550 (actual: $1610-$1581);
Nymex: $10100-$8100 (actual: $10018-$9506);
Euro/dollar: $1.4330-$1.3700 (actual: $1.4439-$1.4015);
China Food: 42-53 pence (actual: 41-44.5 pence);
Thor Mining: 1.8-2.6 pence (actual: 1.8-1.6 pence).
Overall, much better, but could yet be better.
I have got visitors from abroad, so some of the reports will be done tomorrow.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
16:06pm, 22-07-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude 9935.
13:23pm, 22-07-11, grabbed 73 quid, very disappointing, but they have managed to exhaust the bearish momentums on hourly and 15m, leaving us either to lock in or take the money, so that is 47 quid in the red, from 1 winner and 1 loser out of 2 selections in the new series of fun bets.
07:09am, 22-07-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex 9977 just now.
21:32pm, 21-07-11, lost that short, so that is 120 quid in the red, from one selection for the new series, not a good start.
13:36pm, 21-07-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5878.
13:24pm, 21-07-11, got stopped out at breakeven, had to concede defeat, as I was holding on for too long, could have banked some 100 quid profit, but had to give it a go to see whether the series could end in profit, in the end, it wasn't to be, so that is that, 276 quid in the red, from 60 winners, 35 losers and 5 breakevens out of 100 selections. A bit disappointed, to say the least.
08:23am, 21-07-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex 9858 just now, this is the 100th fun bet, the final one in the series.
18:23pm, 20-07-11, grabbed 196 quid, so that is 276 quid in the red, from 60 winners, 35 losers and 4 breakevens out of 99 selections.
12:45pm, 20-07-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex 9903.
12:32pm, 20-07-11, grabbed 90 quid, so that is 472 quid in the red, from 59 winners, 35 losers and 4 breakevens out of 98 selections.
08:23am, 20-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5808 on ftse.
09:57am, 19-07-11, grabbed 60 quid, so that is 562 quid in the red, from 58 winners, 35 losers and 4 breakevens out of 97 selections.
20:28pm, 18-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5752 on ftse.
20:04pm, 18-07-11, grabbed 61 quid, so that is 622 quid in the red, from 57 winners, 35 losers and 4 breakevens out of 96 selections.
16:46pm, 18-07-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 12313.
16:40pm, 18-07-11, got chopped, so that is 683 quid in the red, from 56 winners, 35 losers and 4 breakevens out of 95 selections.
07:43am, 18-07-11, highlighted my fun long near 5807 on ftse.
21:13pm, 16-07-11, this google blog service is a load of rubbish, with constant dis-formatting to the blog itself. It is a pain!
17:12pm, 16-07-11, done all seven reports and promised myself to chill out until Monday. Take care.
09:11am, 16-07-11, some weekly reflections below:
"Still trying to recover from that horrific week at the end of June, both as a mooriverwatcher and moorivertrader. Had flashes of moments during the week that I was back to the trading mode again, but they did not last long enough to make a positive impact on the fun bet series. Will have to see what I can do from the remaining few bets in the series in the coming week. Need to relax a bit more, I think.
Our MG is working hard on his gap trading system these days and he has kept us well informed of the unfilled gaps, which is much appreciated. Our Al. is still holding onto that mighty short from the very top and has been nimble in some temporary longs and shorts, which is an interesting style of play to say the least. He is playing for fun and hence also making money like fun, maybe that is the essence of the game! In the absence of any other strong contenders, I am awarding our MG and Al. as Moostars of the week, well done to them both.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6100-5940 (actual: 6005-5789);
Dow: 12340-12820 (actual: 12375-12632);
Gold: $1526-$1586 (actual: $1541-$1594);
Nymex Crude: $99-$85 (actual: $99.21-$93.56);
Euro/dollar: $1.4700-$1.4240 (actual: $1.3837-$1.4282);
Barclays Bank: 238-256 pence (actual: 243-219 pence);
BP Plc: 450-480 pence (actual: 449-463 pence).
Still recovering as a mooriverwatcher, as I mentioned earlier.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
21:02pm, 15-07-11, got out for 2 quid profit, disappointed, so that is 563 quid in the red, from 56 winners, 34 losers and 4 breakevens out of 94 selections.
07:01am, 14-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5847 on ftse.
05:31am, 14-07-11, lost that one, so that is 565 quid in the red, from 55 winners, 34 losers and 4 breakevens out of 93 selections. What a day.
18:35pm, 13-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5895 on ftse.
15:30pm, 13-07-11, given up hoping, so grabbed 32 quid, so that is 444 quid in the red, from 55 winners, 33 losers and 4 breakevens out of 92 selections. What a day.
16:48pm, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5876.
15:55pm, 12-07-11, grabbed 14 quid, so that is 476 quid in the red, from 54 winners, 33 losers and 4 breakevens out of 91 selections. What a day.
14:47pm, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun short near 5874 on ftse.
12:53pm, 12-07-11, grabbed 64 quid, so that is 490 quid in the red, from 53 winners, 33 losers and 4 breakevens out of 90 selections. What a day.
12:20pm, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5827 on ftse.
12:13pm, 12-07-11, lost that fun long for 40 quid, so that is 554 quid in the red, from 52 winners, 33 losers and 4 breakevens out of 89 selections. What a morning.
12:00, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5833 on ftse.
10:32am, 12-07-11, grabbed 66 quid, so that is 514 quid in the red, from 52 winners, 32 losers and 4 breakevens out of 88 selections. What a morning.
09:52am, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5820 on ftse.
09:41am, 12-07-11, grabbed 70 quid, so that is 580 quid in the red, from 51 winners, 32 losers and 4 breakevens out of 87 selections.
08:58am, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5800 on ftse.
08:52am, 12-07-11, lost that one, so that is 650 quid in the red, from 50 winners, 32 losers and 4 breakevens out of 86 selections.
08:02am, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5870 on ftse.
21:02pm, 11-07-11, took a tenner, don't want to sleep on longs, so that is 530 quid in the red, from 50 winners, 31 losers and 4 breakevens out of 85 selections.
19:42pm, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5905.
13:38pm, 11-07-11, grabbed 34 quid, so that is 540 quid in the red, from 49 winners, 31 losers and 4 breakevens out of 84 selections. This blog service is shambolic from google.
13:17pm, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5918 on ftse.
13:03pm, 11-07-11, grabbed 60 quid, so that is 574 quid in the red, from 48 winners, 31 losers and 4 breakevens out of 83 selections.
11:56am, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5968,
11:49am, 11-07-11, got out for 4 quid, not going anywhere, so that is 634 quid in the red, from 47 winners, 31 losers and 4 breakevens out of 82 selections.
10:45am, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5966 for a gap close on dow.
10:28am, 11-07-11, lost 40 quid, so that is 638 quid in the red, from 46 winners, 31 losers and 4 breakevens out of 81 selections.
08:52am, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5981.
08:38am, 11-07-11, grabbed 14 quid, so that is 598 quid in the red, from 46 winners, 30 losers and 4 breakevens out of 80 selections.
08:05am, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5991.
07:47am, 11-07-11, lost that long for 24 quid, so that is 612 quid in the red, from 45 winners, 30 losers and 4 breakevens out of 79 selections.
06:57am, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun long on euro near 14199.
13:35pm, 10-07-11, still doing the reports, running a bit late, you may check out the Nymex report in the older blogs, freshly updated.
08:56am, 10-07-11, some weekly reflections:
"As you have seen me going long and short, you know I am no longer stuck in one mode, which is always not really suitable for trading these volatile markets. One has to be a bullbear or bearbull most of the time, though sometimes bulls are preferred and other times bears are preferred.
While the fun bet series has gathered some more losses, I am feeling better now, getting out of the grip of a punching-blind mode. I am looking forward to get in some winning trade next week.
Some of you have traded very well, long and short, like our Al and our ever consistent MS. However, this week's Moostar Award goes to our Marty, who took time out to give me a big shout, to get me out of that vicious loop at last. Thanks, Marty, much appreciated.
When I checked the euro million this morning, I realised I never realised that they have changed the bonus numbers from 1-9 to 1-11. No wonder nobody has won the 166 million jackpot, one of the bonus numbers is 10!!!!!!! lol
Anyway, from here onwards, these markets should be tradable again, until sometime in August, where there will be another junction, when we don't want to make any mistakes at all. By that time, what we will do is wait and do nothing, but define a breakout from a certain zone, so that we can follow the trend from the breakout, that is for August. For now, let's trade this meandering process.
Let's take a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6040-5920 (actual: 6084-5972);
Dow: 12280-12730 (actual: 12534-12776);
Euro/dollar: $1.4580-$1.4350 (actual: $1.4578-$1.4206);
Gold: $1496-$1442 (actual: $1487-$1546);
Nymex Crude: $95.30-$85.80 (actual: $99.41-$94.35);
Barclays Bank: 280-255 pence (actual: 266-243 pence);
BP plc: 462-434 pence (actual: 468-450 pence).
Well, to be honest, after last week's complete wipeout, I suffered a momentum of Analyst's Block, when I stared at the charts and thought how the hell do you forecast the future! lol, that was very close! Guess this sort of Blocks come to us sometimes, like a Writer's Block, etc.. It was a weird moment, as the week before I thought I was 'making' the markets and then I couldn't make any sense at all of the millions of possibilities presented by the charts at that particular moment.
Now let's work out them magic numbers for the Euro billions, lol, 1-11 for the bonus numbers, that reduces the chance of winning by a magnitude of millions yet again! God, if I ever win a big jackpot, I will make a substantial donation to the study of souls and gods. Amen.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
16:42pm, 08-07-11, came out at breakeven, no joy there either, so that is 588 quid in the red, from 45 winners, 29 losers and 4 breakevens out of 78 selections.
15:32pm, 08-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5995 on ftse.
10:40am, 08-07-11, grabbed 22 quid, so that is 588 quid in the red, from 45 winners, 29 losers and 3 breakevens out of 77 selections.
09:24am, 08-07-11, highlighted my fun short 6061 on ftse.
09:20am, 08-07-11, bagged 9 quid, so that is 610 quid in the red, from 44 winners, 29 losers and 3 breakevens out of 76 selections.
08:46am, 08-07-11, highlighted my fun long near 6060 on ftse.
08:10am, 08-07-11, out at breakeven, so that is 619 quid in the red, from 43 winners, 29 losers and 3 breakevens out of 75 selections.
14:39pm, 07-07-11, highlighted my fun short 6060 on ftse.
13:57pm, 07-07-11, lost that short, so that is 618 quid in the red, from 43winners, 29 losers and 3 breakevens out of 74 selections.
18:59pm, 06-07-11, highlighted my fun short 6010 on ftse.
13:30pm, 06-07-11, lost a tenner, so that is 498 quid in the red, from 43winners, 28 losers and 3 breakevens out of 73 selections.
12:25pm, 06-07-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5979 just now.
11:23am, 06-07-11, grabbed 22 quid, so that is 488 quid in the red, from 43winners, 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 72 selections.
09:17am, 06-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5990 on ftse.
08:43am, 06-07-11, lost 20 quid on that short, so that is 510 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 71 selections.
08:05am, 04-07-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5990.
08:52am, 03-07-11, done all seven report, the challenge to turn around a deficit of 490 pounds starts from Monday.
21:13pm, 02-07-11, you may scroll down to read the full Barclays report too.
10:48am, 02-07-11, doing the seven reports, scroll down and click on the left-hand side, May blogs, you can read my latest full gold report.
21:42pm, 01-07-11, the weekly confession/reflection again:
"Got it so completely wrong.
I now think there is a God up there and he actually listened to me last weekend, when I wrote the following:
"Sometimes, I don't really know how I should feel. While this has been one of the best weeks in terms of me as a mooriverwatcher, as a moorivertrader, the fun bet is into profit, but not by much, which leaves a slightly sour taste in the mouth, after my vanity getting its usual fill again. God says, you have to choose between greed and vanity. I could have told him that I want neither or both. But the thunder was too loud for him to hear me. Amen."
And he actually heard me and this week, he has given me a big neither! I should really be careful about what I wish for.
As a mooriverwatcher, I have had such a good run that I think something was creeping into my mind unknowingly to me, that of taking it for granted that I can correctly see the markets. That is really fatal.
To start with, over the last weekend, I have laid out all the dangers, the triangle between 5650 and 5770 and put them down on the charts, "respect breakouts" etc. Then, I was fully aware that the danger of getting it wrong out of the Greek situation could be lethal, as we were stuck in a potential lethal Wave 3 on various markets. Have thought about all that and told you all about that as well, I started to 'make' the markets into ideal scenarios.
And once trading got under the way, once mistakes were made, I couldn't believe after so much trading, I could still become so emotionally attached to the losing direction, in fact, for the whole week.
This has been one extreme week and looking back, I couldn't believe I was that stubborn in sticking to the wrong direction all the way up!
Well, the biggest challenge for me now is to clear my head and start afresh tomorrow, from some hefty losses and a deeply wounded spirt.
I could put up some lame excuses (the change of the chart template for one and other excuses), but the fact is that I got carried away by my mooriverwatching accuracy for the past few weeks and then mistakes pushed me into emotional trading. They say trading is very much pyschological. I was stuck in a vicious loop for the whole week. This is going to be the biggest challenge for me to turn around the deeply red fun bet series.
For the coming week, you need to be a bit cautious about my mooriverwatch reports as I am not 100% sure that I could clear my head so completely to be void of all the hurt pride etc to look at the moo rivers with a calm, clear, rational and imaginative mind.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes, for a laugh:
FTSE 100: 5770-5400 (actual: 5665 and 6018);
Dow: 11400-12180 (actual: 11894-12597);
Gold: $1502-$1442 (actual: $1514-$1478);
Euro/dollar: $1.4450-$1.3900 (actual: $1.4552-$1.4103);
Nymex Crude: $82-$91.30 (actual: $89.60-$95.83);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1517-1350 pence (actual: 1684-1523 pence);
Barclays Bank: 256-188 pence (actual: 266-233 pence).
And please, God, can I be BOTH a good mooriverwatch and a good moorivertrader. Amen.
Have a nice weekend, folks.
PS Always be sure what you wish for, I do now believe there is a God up there looking after us."
21:14pm, 01-07-11, chopped that short, so that is 490 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 26 losers and 3 breakevens out of 70 selections.
20:24pm, 01-07-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6005.
18:44pm, 01-07-11, suffered yet another loss, so that is 474 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 25 losers and 3 breakevens out of 69 selections. It will be a tremendous effort to turn around this biggest deficit on a fun bet series ever. I have turned around 342 pounds deficit before, but nothing as big as this. It will be a mountain to climb.
17:36pm, 30-06-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5945.
16:06pm, 30-06-11, lost that one too, what a miserable week, exactly as I feared, the worst nightmare has come true for the fun bets, so that is 353 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 24 losers and 3 breakevens out of 68 selections.
07:03am, 30-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5876 on ftse.
05:13am, 30-06-11, some reflections and comments on ftse:
"morning all
well, after MF sending that chart, we knew this short would not have lived for long and it got chopped overnight.
I got it so wrong this week. I think I was somehow gripped by fear and ignored all technicals or my eyes went blindingly bearish.
before this week started, we spotted that markets were all in a bear or bull mode, with a lethal wave 3 to come either way, if you read the early emails. and in the end, markets chose the bullish path probably because that was the easiest way out of fear
this is very much deja vu of last year, when I got it so right till about this time and then got it very wrong for a sustained period of time, hopefully this time I would fare better
when you think you are getting this market right, that is when you start to get it wrong!
and mistakes in lethal Wave 3's are painful
time and again, I said no trading or lessing trading, but as long as I made the first mistake, I got sucked into emotional trading
now back in deep red again, need to turn it around
======================================
let's talk about today's trade
1. this is the last day of June
2. while there will be some profit taking, it has not finished its bull run yet
3. pivot at 5841 and gap at 5846
4. I think we are going to yoyo today between 5900ish and 5800ish
5. so morning session: 5900ish-5840ish
6. if we look at the waves, then this is going to be Wave 4 down, pending a final Wave 5 up, though it could be extended as well
I will do my studies this weekend to work out the future movements, as you know I can't do that during the week
so let's trade this Wave 4 down from 5900ish to 5800ish all day long
good luck all"
05:03am, 30-06-11, got it so wrong this week, window dressing by fund managers pushed up the markets, got chopped again, so that is 233 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 23 losers and 3 breakevens out of 68 selections.
09:20am, 29-06-11, highlighted my fun short again on ftse 5828, the other short got chopped, so that is 132 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 22 losers and 3 breakevens out of 67 selections.
07:40am, 29-06-11, some comments on gold:
we have wave 1 from 1577 to 1463
then a prolonged Wave 2o from 1463 to 1558, just a little over 1550 23.6% fib pullback, now we are in this Wave 3 down
for this current Wave 3, we have had a Wave 3(i) from 1558 to 1490
now Wave 3(ii) pullback, could go as high as 1543 23.6% fib pullback
this is a very benevolent downstream moo river so far, the angles are yet to sharpen
13:45pm, 28-06-11, highlighted my fun short near 5768 on ftse.
13:36pm, 28-06-11, lost that short, so that is 11 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 21 losers and 3 breakevens out of 66 selections.
08:07am, 28-06-11, done a sector review, most are in a bear run.
14:55pm, 27-06-11, highlighted my fun short near 5710 on ftse.
12:59pm, 27-06-11, grabbed 32 quid, so that is 110 quid in profit, from 42 winners, 20 losers and 3 breakevens out of 65 selections.
10:04am, 27-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5718 on ftse.
06:02am, 27-06-11, some comments on markets:
"morning all
1. Friday we closed in cash near 5697, so that is our opening gap
2. pivot near 5711, we are under it, which is bearish
3. overnight, HK is leading the Chinese celebration, Japan follows and aussies are suffering their own blues!
4. also overnight, euro gapped up but has since come down, nearing 14100ish key lifeline and nymex too nearing lifeline of 90, they are on the verge of a collapse, so very dangerously poised
5. UK: home price edges lower, showing biggest fall; Wen may sign some big deals with Cameron
6. sequence of movements:
a. morning till 12: it is more likely to drift higher, if we survive the opening for an hour above 5650; if it survives 5650 till 9am, then we are likely to drift towards the gap at 5697 or even pivot 5711 by 12 and then at 12, the binary strike time, it could get very jittery and close at 12 o'clock just under 5697;
this is on the condition if it survives 5650 till 9am, if not, we have to reassess
b. afternoon: 13:30pm, yankie news, their opening gap is near 11935
I see continued pounding of 5650 by bears and 5700/5710 by bulls, a break of either is significant
d. it is more likely to close the day in cash market near 5650
e. it is quite likely for the yankies to close their cash market nearly neutral
f. overnight tonight, we might start to get jittery and penetrate 5659 when everyone is asleep, lol
so overall, if you are buying, then you use guaranteed stop loss against 5640/30 maximum for a few scalps; if you are shorting, then 5700/5730 with 5750/60 max stop loss, (use guaranteed as well)
it is going to be a small range day, unless we dive through 5650 in the opening hour
do nothing is preferred, if you have to trade, make sure you know exactly how much is risked every trade, with guaranteed stop loss or binaries
9am, reassessment, all eyes on euro near 14100 and nymex oil near 90
good luck all"
20:53pm, 26-06-11, doing a round of updates on VIX, Dollar index etc, getting ready for a new trading week. Good luck all.
19:49pm, 26-06-11, welcoming new members, always a pleasure to welcome new members to board the Mooferry. sending out seven reports, etc.
10:01am, 26-06-11, taking off the nymex report now, the euro report is still available, need to scroll down for it. Ready to trade a very volatile week?! Good luck all.
21:25pm, 25-06-11, done all seven reports and to be honest, I had these ranges in mind last weekend. But we need to pause to look afresh next weekend, as we might have a brave new world then. Have a nice weekend, folks.
Ps Using guaranteed stoplosses for spreadbetting may be a very good idea in the coming week.
14:23pm, 25-06-11, doing the seven mooriverwatch reports, scroll down to the bottom and click on the older blogs, you may read my full report on euro/dollar, freshly baked just now. Have a nice weekend.
22:06pm, 24-06-11, the usual weekly reflection again:
"Sometimes, I don't really know how I should feel. While this has been one of the best weeks in terms of me as a mooriverwatcher, as a moorivertrader, the fun bet is into profit, but not by much, which leaves a slightly sour taste in the mouth, after my vanity getting its usual fill again. God says, you have to choose between greed and vanity. I could have told him that I want neither or both. But the thunder was too loud for him to hear me. Amen.
Our Al. has designed a rather intriguing trading system, with guns firing at both directions. And he seems to be sipping his red wine and enjoying it. Our MS and Iaan have put in a solid winning week. Our MG is working out his larger range trading system with some good profits. Our Lady S is keeping herself busy baking a few more yummy cakes, while keeping her cash firmly intact. But I am sure she will be looking forward to the coming week. She can sniff out a bounce a hundred miles off, haha. Overall, it has been one of those weird weeks that things stop and go and when it goes, it goes too fast and furious. Some of our members are traveling around the world at the moment, doing their usual traveling trades. For this week, I am going to award our Lady S Moostar of the week, as she knows when to say NO and when to jump in, so to speak! Patience is a virtue and timing is everything. I admire her patience and womanly instinct very much. So well done, Lady S., you are our Moostar of the Week.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5820-5620 (actual: 5795-5647);
Dow: 12200-11840 (actual: 12217-11873);
Nymex Crude: $96-$90 (actual:$95.70-$89.72);
Gold: $1554-$1510 (actual: $1558-$1499);
Euro/dollar: $1.4430-$1.4000 (actual: $1.4442-$1.4127);
3I plc: 266-284 pence (actual: 264-279 pence);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1520-1620 pence (actual: 1511-1578 pence).
Well, all I can say is that I am a flawed genius in disguise, lol.
Have a nice weekend.
PS Must warn you that the coming week is a Blackswan week, so take all my forecasts with a large pinch of salt, despite the fact that I have been getting more lucky with these magic numbers lately. "
12:09pm, 24-06-11, grabbed 48 quid, so that is 78 quid in profit, from 41 winners, 20 losers and 3 breakevens out of 64 selections.
07:03am, 24-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5747 on ftse.
21:13pm, 23-06-11, left a limit fun order overnight. Good night, folks.
18:24pm, 23-06-11, came out at breakeven, so that is 30 pounds in profit, from 40 winners, 20 losers and 3 breakevens out of 63 selections.
13:05pm, 23-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5698 on ftse.
10:47am, 23-06-11, grabbed, very slow going, so that is 32 pounds in profit, from 40 winners, 20 losers and 2 breakevens out of 62 selections.
08:11am, 22-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5735 on ftse.
19:55pm, 22-06-11, grabbed 8 quid, so that is 4 pounds in profit, from 39 winners, 20 losers and 2 breakevens out of 61 selections.
12:24pm, 22-06-11, highlighted my fun short on euro near 14382.
11:14am, 22-06-11, banked 45 quid, so that is 3 quid in the red, from 38 winners, 20 losers and 2 breakevens out of 60 selections. Annoyed with yesterday's silly mistake there.
07:56am, 22-06-11, highlighted my fun short on euro near 14405.
05:00am, 22-06-11, lost that one, so that is 48 pounds in the red, from 37 winners, 20 losers and 2 breakevens out of 59 selections.
12:07pm, 21-06-11, highlighted my fun short near 5734 on ftse.
10:19am, 21-06-11, grabbed 20 quid, so that is 80 pounds in profit, from 37 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 58 selections.
09:34am, 21-06-11, highlighted my fun short near 5740 on ftse, for a quick scalp.
18:59pm, 20-06-11, grabbed 18 quid, so that is 60 pounds in profit, from 36winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 57 selections.
17:53pm, 20-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5705 on ftse.
11:21am, 20-06-11, grabbed 40 quid, missed another scalp there earlier on, never mind, opportunites are plenty, too many, that is the problem, so that is 42 quid in profit, from 35 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 56 selections. Nice to have a winning start.
07:47am, 20-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5659 on ftse just now.
10:31am, 19-06-11, happy Father's Day, folks. done all seven reports. You may check out the two reports on the companies, there is one on Standard Chartered Bank in the older blogs, which has been updated. Have a good day, folks. I am starting the week with £2 in profit on the fun bet series.
09:45am, 18-06-11, the usual weekly reflections again:
"Finally, a pleasure to reflect upon a week, where I turned around a 342 pounds deficit into a 2 pounds profit for the fun bet series. To be honest, so far, every fun bet series has suffered its ups and downs to the tune of about 250 pounds both in profit and in loss and then all end up in some profits. The challenge is that whether this particular series can beat the previous series in terms of profitability. So far, the best series is the 5th batch with 306 pounds profit. We are now onto fun bet no. 56, just a little over half way through, a lot is demanded for the coming two weeks.
The key to trading is to be flexible and disciplined. While the Mooriverwatch reports and daily regular updates provide the Satnav guidance, the trader must look at the traffic and road conditions to decide what to do. A Satnav guidance could point to a journey from Manchester to London, but it may not have told you in advance all roads around your home are blocked, until two hours later, then subject to massive diversions, etc etc. One has to be flexible and nimble and take whatever profit or loss as and when demanded by the market conditions, WITHOUT HESITATIONS! It takes a lot of determination to cut losses early without hesitations and it is a common folly to hold onto a profit for too long for it to turn into a loss. Trading demands both flexibility (in the mindset) and discipline (act immediately without hesitation as and when demanded by the market conditions). Always easily said than done.
But if you look at the losing fun bets, it is often because the trades were placed on a lofty ambition and then not being chopped without hesitation when the tides turned around. So sometimes, a fun bet will pick up just the few pointers, other times, it has to be chopped soon after it has been entered. And hopefully, there will be times that a fun bet can be held for 20-30 pointer or more in one go. Give the fact that FTSE normally moves 50 pointers half a day and 100 pointers the whole day, so it is more likely to go up and down most of the time. The best profit target is perhaps 20-30 pointer a go, any loftier targets might result in the tide turning around against the trade.
I am still puzzled by the emailing problem. MF has helped to pinpoint that this is a hotmail specific problem. The problem is whether it is my hotmail problem or a generic hotmail problem. I have tried various ways. I used fastmail and gmail, which do not have the problems at all. But I have tried a few hotmail accounts, they all exhibit the same problems. A red cross for the charts using internet explorer and being able to see the chart but not able to forward using Firefox. I am hoping some members will try their hotmail boxes and see if it is a same problem there. Either it is something to do with my laptop or it is generic hotmail problem. The problem is that there is no emailing way to reach Microsoft to make a formal complaint! I am still searching for the solution, while at the meantime, I will use Gmail instead.
While members should have had a good trading week, as reflected by our Flying Daytrader's positively highflying feedback, there is no hesitation for me to award our MF the Moostar of the week. The man has got both a beautiful and a caring soul! I am proud to get to know someone like him in our community. For every community that I get involved in, as long as I get to meet someone like our MF once in a while, it makes my life's journey so much worth the while. I am very grateful for the tremendous efforts and time you spent in helping me to deal with the emailing problem, MF. Well done, you are onto the Moostar podium again. Our SJ almost made it again onto the podium with his suggestion of a system restoration, shame it did not work out. Many thanks for that, too, SJ.
Now let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5820-5620 (actual: 5825-5643);
Dow: 12000-11500 (actual: 12118-11836);
Gold: $1540-$1487 (actual: $1542-$1511);
Euro/dollar: $1.4170 and $1.4520 (actual: $1.4074-$1.4498);
Nymex Crude: $99-$94.50 (actual: $99.95-$91.85);
United Utilities: 602-568 pence (actual: 608-590 pence);
Severn Trent: 1450-1360 pence (actual: 1461-1423 pence).
While my often alarmingly accurate weekly forecasts are perhaps the world's most ignored flashes of genius (lol) that satisfies my vanity in some way, it is the day to day trading that is going to prove the worth of this Club. For that, I am grateful to you for your patience and perseverance. It is getting closer as we can see the results of the batches of fun bet series. The aim is to deliver a minimum of £1000 profit per fun bet series on a regular basis. For that, there is some way to go yet.
Now I will go gazing into the moorivers and switch into that curious role of a Mooriverwatcher, pure concentration and full imaginations, an intellectual challenge that is second to no others.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
15:23pm, 17-06-11, took 30 quid, so that is 2 pounds in profit at last, from 34 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 55 selections. We started the week with 342 pounds in the red, so it is a turnaround. Now have a rest for this week.
13:56pm, 17-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5720 on ftse again.
13:31pm, 17-06-11, nicked 20 quid, so that is 28 quid in the red, from 33 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 54 selections.
13:18pm, 17-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5724 on ftse.
12:07pm, 17-06-11, grabbed the money, so that is 48 quid in the red, from 32 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 53 selections.
11:06am, 17-06-11, highlighted my fun long again 5676 on ftse.
10:43am, 17-06-11, grabbed 68 quid, so that is 120 quid in the red, from 31 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 52 selections.
10:05am, 17-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5650 on ftse.
09:33am, 17-06-11, bailing out, so lost 32 quid, 188 quid in the red, from 30 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 51 selections.
07:20am, 17-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5666 on ftse.
21:03pm, 16-06-11, banked 34 quid, so that is 156 quid in the red, from 30 winners, 18 losers and 2 breakevens out of 50 selections.
19:56pm, 16-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5653 on ftse.
18:06pm, 16-06-11, grabbed 12 quid, not going anywhere fast, it seems, so that is 190 quid in the red, from 29 winners, 18 losers and 2 breakevens out of 49 selections.
15:16pm, 16-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5690 on ftse.
15:01pm, 16-06-11, banked 38 quid, so that is 202 quid in the red, from 28 winners, 18 losers and 2 breakevens out of 48 selections.
14:49pm, 16-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5780 on ftse.
14:04pm, 16-06-11, banked 32 quid, so that is 240 quid in the red, from 27 winners, 18 losers and 2 breakevens out of 47 selections.
13:31pm, 16-06-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5658.
13:02pm, 16-06-11, lost that long, so that is 272 quid in the red, from 26 winners, 18 losers and 2 breakevens out of 46 selections.
07:18am, 16-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5695 on ftse.
20:47pm, 15-06-11, come out breakeven, didn't fancy to sleep on that long, so that is 172 quid in the red, from 26 winners, 17 losers and 2 breakevens out of 45 selections.
19:33pm, 15-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5711 on ftse.
16:11pm, 15-06-11, lost 26 quid, so that is 172 quid in the red, from 26 winners, 17 losers and 1 breakeven out of 44 selections.
15:47pm, 15-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5761 on ftse.
14:42pm, 15-06-11, a humble pie for me for my dinner from our Flying Daytrader:
"Flying today....But not in the air lol - -making loads of dosh instead. Much better now that you seem to be concentrating on FTSE and not trying to cover too many things at the same time.
Keep up the good work
Chris."
14:06pm, 15-06-11, grabbed 64 quid, so that is 146 pounds in the red, from 26 winners, 16 losers and 1 breakeven out of 43 selections.
08:10am, 15-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5793 on ftse.
07:16am, 15-06-11, grabbed 44 quid, so that is 210 quid in the red, from 25winners, 16 losers and 1 breakeven out of 42 selections.
13:53pm, 14-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5813 on ftse.
08:52am, 14-06-11, grabbed 4 quid, the entry was a bit poor, so that is 254 quid in the red, from 24 winners, 16 losers and 1 breakeven out of 41 selections.
08:02am, 14-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5805 on ftse.
05:56am, 14-06-11, limit hit, so grabbed 48 quid on the ftse long overnight, that is 258 quid in the red, from 23 winners, 16 losers and 1 breakeven out of 40 selections.
19:35pm, 13-06-11, highlighted my fun long at 5766 on ftse.
18:10pm, 13-06-11, lost 34 quid, so that is 316 quid in the red, from 22 winners, 16 losers and 1 breakeven out of 39 selections.
16:57pm, 13-06-11, highlighted my fun long near 5765 on ftse.
12:34pm, 13-06-11, grabbed another 20 quid, so that is 282 quid in the red from 22 winners, 15 losers and 1 breakeven out of 38 selections
10:55am, 13-06-11, some comment on Ascent Resources:
"just had a nibble of this share
technically, looking oversold and ready to bounce, but yet no confirmation of a reversal from the sustained bear run so far
Weekly
Momentums: we are turning bullish here. Momentum is bending upwards, though in negativity; Stoch has just gone bullishly crossed under the FLOOOR! MACD and Directional Movement show decreasing bearishness and RSI is tilting upwards from the floor too!!!!!!!
Price chart: if you look at the weekly candles, there seems to be a reversal doji setup in place already, all we need to close this week strongly, once we are over 5.5p bollinger midline, we are well and truly recovering.
Daily
Momentums: we have gone sharply bullish. Momentum has had a W bottom and now into Wave 3 upwards, hopefully into positivity shortly; Stoch has had a W bottom and has risen smartly through the floor in a bullish crossing; MACD shows increasing bullishness and Directional Movement shows diminishing bearishness and RSI has had an odd W rise from the floooooor too.
Price chart: price has double bottomed, now seems to be ready to reverse. on the way down, we have left a good number of gaps to be refilled!
However, at this moment, any purchase is a gamble, as the reversal process is not yet confirmed technically. So I have taken my gamble and be warned of the penny risks as always and also the general markets are very weak and will be getting weaker over the next week or so!!!!
dyor
good luck all"
10:26am, 13-06-11, bought some Ascent Resources shares, this one seems to be bouncing upwards from a sustained fall for months.
09:46am, 13-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5773 on ftse.
08:41am, 13-06-11, grabbed 40 quid, so that is 302 quid in the red from 21 winners, 15 losers and 1 breakeven out of 37 selections.
08:15am, 13-06-11, highlighted my fun long at 5767 on ftse.
20:30pm, 12-06-11, doing a round of review of dividend bearing shares etc, e.g., water shares and others.
08:58am, 12-06-11, taken off the ftse report now, but the nymex crude report is available in the 2010 blog list, done all reports, now time to chill out.
09:42am, 11-06-11, if you click on the 2010 blogs on the left-hand side, you will be able to read my latest full ftse report, free of charge, with detailed speculations about daily movements next week! It is listed there, because the original first blog on ftse was started in 2010 and then get updated every week. Thanks for visiting my blog, time to join the Club at £20 a month!!!! as you can see from the records my weekly forecasts are probably the world's No.1 forecasts! have a nice weekend.
08:33am, 11-06-11, some weekly reflections as follows:
"Time to reflect upon a miserable week. What went wrong? Got sucked in by the oil beast and got punched twice and then got into some emotional trading on that last Dow long, at the lofty R3! What could have gone wrong have gone wrong. So it can only get better from here.
One thing that is very clear to me is that one has to focus a lot on momentums. If you look at prices, your imaginations go wild, like looking at the prize figures on lotteries. But when you look at momentums, that is when you realise the odds to win a lottery jackpot is almost one in billions.
Will be working hard to turn the fun bets around as that one is in deep red at the moment. I have eaten my humble pie and pulled the membership subscription fee back to £20 a month, almost permanently, until I can run fun bets at a minimum of £1000 profit per series for 12 months. Before then, while I think my mooriverwatch reports are highly valuable, but my trading views etc still desire a lot of improvement for consistency etc. However, for the record, I have always managed to turn it around within the 100 fun bets to end on a profit, so I have got some confidence there.
For this week, our SJ has shot to the podium of Moostar Trader of the week by his shorts on ftse, which he held until 5750. Few could better that record, particularly as I was changing to a bullish outlook on Friday morning. Very well done, SJ, I appreciate your contributions to the Club in terms of dividend and other information as well. Nobody has ever kept on the podium for weeks running to date, lol, so keep up the good trades and good luck. Must say there are some fine traders in this Club.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5890-5630 (actual: 5891-5738) (as often, I am speechless by the divergenced between the genius of the Mooriverwatcher and the follies of the mooriver trader!);
Dow: 11970-11730 (actual: 12184-11925);
Euro/$: $1.4770-$1.4500 (actual: $1.4696-$1.4323);
Gold: $1581-$1540 (actual: $1554-$1526);
FTSE 250: 11970-11730 (actual: 12038-11775) (that was my first study ever for our MS, pleased with that one);
Nymex Crude: $100.56-$83.00 (actual: $102.45-$97.74) (that was a bit of pain in terms of the underestimation);
Barclays: 260-285 pence (actual: 267-256 pence).
We will be trading FTSE only until I have turned the fun bets into profit.
Have a nice weekend, folks, my pain starts here, as a lot of soul searching and mooriver gazing are demanded of me now."
14:55pm, 10-06-11, lost the long, which was placed in the wrong frame of mind, a horrible week, so that is 342 quid in the red from 20 winners, 15 losers and 1 breakeven out of 36 selections.
17:49pm, 09-06-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 12170 just now.
16:39pm, 09-06-11, lost the oil short, so that is 222 quid in the red, from 20 winners, 14 losers and 1 breakeven out of 35 selections, having a bad run.
16:16pm, 09-06-11, bailing out of the ftse short, so that is 122 quid in the red, from 20 winners, 13 losers and 1 breakeven out of 36 selections, one running.
15:16pm, 09-06-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5847.
12:48pm, 09-06-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude 10140.
09:54am, 09-06-11, bailing out of the short, was in the wrong frame of mind last night, otherwise, could have booked some profit on this short, so that is 108 quid in the red, from 20 winners, 12 losers and 1 breakeven out of 34 selections.
20:01pm, 08-06-11, highlighted my fun short on dow 12072.
18:45pm, 08-06-11, grabbed 13 quid, so that is 100 quid in the red, from 20 winners, 11 losers and 1 breakeven out of 33 selections.
14:48pm, 08-06-11, highlighted my fun short on down 12067.
10:48am, 08-06-11, bailing out as today is the inventory news and OPEC news day, might be too volatile from here onwards, so that is 113 quid in the red, from 19 winners, 11 losers and 1 breakeven out of 32 selections.
08:23am, 08-06-11, highlighted my fun long on nymex crude 9852.
06:35am, 08-06-11, grabbed 8 quid, so that is 103 quid in the red, from 19 winners, 11 losers and 1 breakeven out of 31 selections.
08:07am, 07-06-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5854.
18:56pm, 06-06-11, set fun limit short order on ftse just now, see if it catches it.
18:48pm, 06-06-11, grabbed 20 quid, very poor entry indeed, so that is 112 pounds in the red, from 18 winners, 11 losers and 1 breakeven out of 30 selections
12:53pm, 06-06-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5850 just now.
09:12am, 06-06-11, grabbed 53 quid from the oil short, so that is 132 pounds in the red, from 17 winners, 11 losers and 1 breakeven out of 29 selections.
15:41pm, 05-06-11, doing a round of review of moopenny shares etc.
"on Xtract: this one might have some miles to go north yet;
on Workspace: if you are on it, maybe time to consider taking the money, seems to be ready to come down for a bit;
on Victoria: poor vicky has no sign of life at the mo;
on dollar basket: back to 23.6% fib pullback, if this is a bull run, then this is where bulls start to come out to play;
on $/yen: the Japanese are monitoring this more closely, though 80 is no longer the lifeline, it is 78.58, 23.6% fib!
on Solo Oil: seems to be squeezed between 1.5p and 2p, scalp in between or trade on a breakout from 2p;
on Sirius Min: might be worth a nibble on almost turning momentums;
on SAR: Stoch has turned positive, maybe time to consider a re-entry;
on San Leon: turning negative, avoid for now;
on Range Res: still positive on daily, though a bit weakness on 4hourly;
on Ortac: think it is a matter of when not whether that it may turn north from these levels;
etc etc
11:47am, 05-06-11, done all the seven reports, a defining week to come, it is the weekly close that we need to pay much attention to on the indices this week. Good luck all.
10:40am, 04-06-11, the usual Saturday confessions (reflections, lol):
"June has started with a bumpy ride so far.
While I focus on trading FTSE a lot of the time, there will be occasions that I will find better opportunities with something else, like the slicky oil for example.
Friday was an absolute bad-hair day. The short on ftse near the lowerbank was a classic error. Not sure what happened there and then, old habits die hard! And the system fault with hotmail cost the opportunity to
bank the money on the oil short. All in all, it just says Friday wasn't meant to be a winning day for me. So the fun bets series is in red at the moment. Need some good trades next week to turn things around.
There are two ultra-consistent traders in this Club, MS and Iaan. These guys trade day in day out very nimbly. Iaan is mainly focused on ftse while MS hunts money everywhere, as long as there is a profit. Our MG is still searching for the ultimate system that will beat the markets fair and square. Keep at it, buddy. Our Al. is getting into a good rhythm in daytrading, which is very nice. All in all, I am going to award our MS as Moostar of the week, as his return from holidays was a profitable one in trading. Congratulations and keep it up, buddy. (I know I owe you a report on ftse 250 this weekend).
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5980-5850 (actual: 6011-5802);
Dow: 12500-12100 (actual: 12599-12093);
Nymex Crude: $102.50-$82 (actual: $103.38-$98.13);
Gold: $1555-$1490 (actual: $1550-$1520);
Euro/dollar: $1.4350-$1.4050(actual: $1.4643-$1.4257);
BP: 450-470 pence (actual: 448-471 pence);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1560-1620 pence (actual: 1563-1642 pence).
What do you think? The man is a genius and also an idiot, not being able to make good money out of these forecasts.
I rest my case.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
21:15pm, 03-06-11, no joy with hotmail at all tonight, so will set up a backup facility at Gmail tomorrow. Good night.
20:33pm, 03-06-11, hotmail has been down, was going to book 60 quid on the oil short, but couldn't log in, now suffering, a bad hair day today on a non-farm payroll, a combination of human error and system fault ends the week on a very low.
18:03pm, 03-06-11, lost that one, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude near 10013 just now, so that is 185 pounds in the red, from 16 winners, 11 losers and 1 breakeven out of 29 selections, with the nymex short running.
13:47pm, 03-06-11, highlighted my fun short near 5810 on ftse.
12:23pm, 03-06-11, grabbed a massive quid profit, well, was expecting a scalp, but it didn't go nowhere, so that is 65 pounds in the red, from 16 winners, 10 losers and 1 breakeven out of 27 selections.
10:22am, 03-06-11, highlighted my fun short on euro/dollar 14496 just now.
06:41am, 03-06-11, grabbed 15 quid, so that is 66 quid in the red, from 15 winners, 10 losers and 1 breakeven out of 26 selections.
19:33pm, 02-06-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude 10050.
16:29pm, 02-06-11, finally grabbed 193 quid, so that is 81 quid in the red, from 14 winners, 10 losers and 1 breakeven out of 25 selections.
11:17am, 02-06-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude 10057 just now.
11:14am, 02-06-11, lost that one, so that is 274 pounds in the red from 13 winners, 10 losers and 1 breakeven out of 24 selections
08:19am, 02-06-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude near 9975 just now.
08:13am, 02-06-11, bailing out of the long, so that is 174 pounds in the red, from 13 winners, 9 losers and 1 breakeven out of 23 selections.
18:29pm, 01-06-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 12354 just now.
17:22pm, 01-06-11, grabbed 9 quid, so that is 118 pounds in the red, from 13 winners, 8 losers and 1 breakeven out of 22 selections.
14:39pm, 01-06-11, highlighted my fun short on euro/dollar near 14419 just now.
11:53am, 01-06-11, chopped that short, so that is 127 quid in the red, from 12 winners, 8 losers and 1 breakeven out of 21 selections.
20:35pm, 31-05-11, highlighted my fun short 12523 on dow.
19:33pm, 31-05-11, grabbed 50 quid, so that is 97 quid in the red, from 12 winners, 7 losers and 1 breakeven out of 20 selections.
19:10pm, 31-05-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude, 10300 just now.
17:13pm, 31-05-11, grabbed 20 quid, so that is 147 quid in the red, from 11 winners, 7 losers and 1 breakven out of 19 selections.
08:32am, 31-05-11, highlighted my fun short on euro/dollar 1.4399 just now.
08:30am, 31-05-11, lost 8 quid, so that is 167 quid in the red, from 10 winners, 7 losers and 1 breakven out of 18 selections.
07:06am, 31-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5980 on ftse.
06:19am, 31-05-11, the MMs took the vacuum to chop off bears, ours included, so that is 159 quid in the red, from 10 winners, 6 losers and 1 breakven out of 17 selections
20:13pm, 29-05-11, going through a review of moopenny shares etc.
"on Xtract: is this a lethal wave 2 or are the pennies leading the markets down?
on Workspace: finding support above 28p, this one seems to be useful;
on Victoria Oil and Gas: yoyoing between 4.3p and 7p, under 4.3p, will be very bearish!
on Ultrasis: either do or die, needing to break 1p firmly;
on dollar basket: I can count out five small waves there, so that might Wave 1 down or Wave A down, pending a bounce, amazing artificial dollar weakness to boost yankie economy;
on Tri-star: even in a general bear market, some pennies will be shining, but it seems oil and mining pennies are struggling the most, which seems to fit in my long-term speculations about the oil and gold;
on Thor Mining: onto its last lifeline on the Gfan, there is the fib last line in the sand near 1.6p;
on $/yen: it is fascinating to watch the 80 level here, could this be a historical year!
on Sirius Minerals: it has done 38% fib pullback, could go a bit further down, and capital was raised at 4.5p, but there is an attractive Rgap up there to be filled one day near 17p;
on Sareum Holding: interesting to note that they have all done at least 38% fib pullback, classic Wave 2, so either the bull project is a fantasy, or we are due for a mega bull run from here, which is a curiously interesting thought, which demands me to be alert to such a possibility!
on San Leon: this one is supposed to be worth 80p by some analysts, as it has a portfolio of assets, interesting to note that buyers poured in near 26p, now a pullback;
on Range Resources: momentums seem to be turning, ready for a biggish bounce from these levels, towards either a fib pullback, or a three peaks near 25p or further north;
etc etc etc"
12:22pm, 29-05-11, done all seven weekly reports, last night's football was too intoxicating, it was a brilliant game!
08:50am, 28-05-11, the usual weekend reflections as below:
"It is painful to reflect upon this past miserable week, as mistakes were made and repeated and then got stuck in the loop and only woke up from this vicious cycle late in the week. The purple run in May came to an end, for sure, sad but true.
What happened? I have always said that my best quality work is done over the weekend away from trading, i.e., my weekly studies. Somehow, I made two vital mistakes this week. One was to ignore the weekly studies altogether; another was to use the wrong three timeframes for trading, using daily instead of 4hourly and the rest is history, as they say.
Our Mr Consistent MS has come back from his holidays and he gave me a warning in the week, saying HK was bouncing off 22kish level, markets turning bullish. That was when I started to look at my weekly studies and thought what the heck had been going on there! doh. Thanks, MS. I am hoping our Traveling Daytrader and Flying Daytrader have both been busy in traveling and flying, thus avoiding a poor week. Our Freetime Daytrader GK is returning from Japan to action in the coming week. GK can also be called a Pivotal Daytrader, as he opens trades upon or off the pivots a lot of times with much success. Al. has had a reasonable week and Lady S. wouldn't be too happy with my daily calls on gold, a bit premature, that one was!
For every dark cloud, there is bound to be some silver lining. This week's Moostar goes to our Artistic Daytrader MF. Despite the ups and downs and all the greed and fear in the markets, our MF sits by the Moorivers and muses and draws his beautifully illuminating diamonds, gartleys and butterflies, etc, while keeping an eye on some key news for us too. Congratulations, MF, you are our Moostar of the week. The man has got a beautiful soul with lots of enlightening imaginations.
Now let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5980-5760 (actual: 5952-5789);
Dow: 12560-12280 (actual: 12485-12246);
Gold: 1525-1480 (1539-1504);
Nymex: 102.80-96.40 (actual: 101.90-96.38);
Euro/dollar: 1.4250-1.4050 (actual: 1.4324-1.3969);
BP: 445-465 (actual:451-465 );
Next: 2225-2070 (actual: 2273-2168).
Alas, you can now see the tormenting of my soul this week. Having seen the bearflags last weekend in my studies, I fell in love with the bigger picture and sold all the way up the bearflag, doh, that is eseentially one of the markets' oldest lessons, the higher it climbs, the bigger it falls, but you have to wait for the bearflag to come to its conclusion!
Have a nice weekend, folks."
19:22pm, 26-05-11, highlighted my fun short at 5910 on ftse.
16:07pm, 26-05-11, banked 48 quid, so that is 38 quid in the red, from 10 winners, 5 losers and 1 breakven out of 16 selections.
13:48pm, 26-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5893 on ftse.
09:33am, 26-05-11, grabbed 14 quid from the oil short overnight, so that is 86 pounds in red, from 9 winners, 5 loser and 1 breakeven out of 15 selections.
20:10pm, 25-05-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex 10125.
20:08pm, 25-05-11, lost that one, stuck in a vicious loop for a few days, so that is 100 quid in the red, from 8 winners, 5 loser and 1 breakeven out of 14 selections.
08:33am, 25-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5830 on ftse.
06:41am, 25-05-11, grabbed 86 quid, so that is 20 pounds in profit, from 8 winners, 4 loser and 1 breakeven out of 13 selections.
19:26pm, 24-05-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude near 9952.
19:23pm, 24-05-11, lost the full stop loss, so that is 66 pounds in red, from 7 winners, 4 loser and 1 breakeven out of 12 selections. It has gone pearshaped.
18:52pm, 24-05-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude near 9852.
16:05pm, 24-05-11, what a miserable day again, bailing out, so that is 34 pounds in profit, from 7 winners, 3 loser and 1 breakeven out of 11 selections.
07:07am, 24-05-11, highlighted my fun short 5847 on ftse.
05:56am, 24-05-11, been spiked out, so call it a breakeven one, so that is 52 pounds in profit, from 7 winners, 2 loser and 1 breakeven out of 10 selections.
21:49pm, 23-05-11, locked in earlier on for a ride overnight.
19:41pm, 23-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5854 on ftse.
19:15pm, 23-05-11, bailing out, so that is 52 pounds in profit, from 7 winners and 2 loser out of 9 selections.
07:03am, 23-05-11, highlighted my fun long on dow 12426 just now.
09:59am, 22-05-11, taken off the reports on Next and Euro/dollar now. Going through a quick review of moopenny shares etc.
"Angel Bio: formed a superhammer against 0.3p, now there is an AGM coming up!
Avacta: Rgap filled, now flattening out against 1.1p, some bullishness creeping into oversold momentums;
Bahamas petroleum: not holding up the lowerbank that firmly, though momentums are a bit oversold now;
Biome: the future is green, but the price is stuck;
Emed: the last unfilled Rgap at 9.2p, broken the whole Gfan, but momentums are creeping up;
ETC Corn: a break of the upperbank will be significant, some in the world are starving because of rising food prices;
ETC Wheat: Rgap down there near 230p, but last week was a buy against the Gfan line, it is all about food prices;
SUK2: 38's seems to be the floor, but need to break the bollinger midline to kick off a bull run;
Edenville: based against 1p for quite a few days, now momentums have turned sharply bullish;
Mr Bolton's Fidelity China Special Fund: China wobbles onto the last Gfan supportline, make or break time!
etc etc"
07:28am, 21-05-11, the usual weekly reflections to the Club members:
"It is a pleasure to reflect upon the past if that past contains some success, which was the case for the past week. I have finished the 6th series of fun bets with 162 pounds in profit, which lasted about two months
as usual. I have started the 7th series of fun bets with 90 pounds in profit from 8 selections after taking a full extra strong whack in one single loser. So all in all, it has been a winning week. And must say I am having
a winning May so far.
In terms of the daily studies, it seems to be going well. In terms of trading, managing trades is still very much needing improvement, as I hesitated to cut loss when I clearly realised that things had gone the wrong way. Cutting loss as quickly as possible seems to the way forward, maybe.
There are many contenders for the Moostar trader award this week. Lady S. banked some profits from her BP shares. Iaan is trading very nimbly with good profit. Our ultra consistent MS has finally gone on holidays to take a much deserved break. Our Raffles has been nipping at the markets when he has got some free time, aside from running his online studio. To be honest, there are others who have done well this week as well. But this week's Moostar
Trader Award goes to a clear winner in our Traveling Daytrader Si, who has had a great trading week when taking a much deserved break from his global traveling. Next week, he will be traveling again around the world, trading whenever his I-phone can be connected to the internet in the airports or anywhere in the world really. Like I said to our Flying Daytrader Chris, you can be a winner whatever you do with a bit of moo magic, haha. Well done, Si.,
you are our Moostar of the Week.
So in this Club, we have different types of daytraders, such as Flying Daytrader Chris, Traveling Daytrader Si, Leisure Daytrader Lady S, Artistic Daytrader MF, Supertrend Daytrader MG, Bombardier Daytrader MS (because he trades everything that has a profit potential), Ex-City Daytrader Raffles, IT-Guru Daytrader Al., Freetime Daytrader GK (working full time, won't call him Boss-looking-away Daytrader or Loo Daytrader, lol) and so on so forth. To be honest, I am grateful to have you folks for company as daytrading and making money alone is not fun enough, haha.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6050-5900 (actual: 6020-5845);
Dow: 12930-12270 (actual: 12643-12377);
Euro/dollar: $1.41117-$1.4425 (actual: $1.4048-$1.4346);
Gold: $1530-$1478 (actual: $1516-$1472);
Nymex Crude: $102.80-$96.60 (actual: $101.24-$95.03);
BP Plc: 442-485 pence (actual: 435-467 pence);
Sainsbury Plc: 360-371 pence (actual: 362-340 pence).
Well, quite a reasonable bunch of forecasts. Time for some breakfast and then do my weekly studies and reports.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
15:50pm, 20-05-11, grabbed 72 pounds, so that is 90 pounds in profit, from 7 winners and 1 loser out of 8 selections. think that is all for the week.
13:55pm, 20-05-11, highlighted my fun short 5974 on ftse.
12:13pm, 20-05-11, grabbed 16 quid, almost dejavu as of yesterday, so that is 18 pounds in profit, from 6 winners and 1 loser out of 7 selections.
20:17pm, 19-05-11, highlighted my fun short 5974 on ftse.
19:47pm, 19-05-11, grabbed 20 quid, so that is 2 pounds in profit from 5 winners and 1 loser out of 6 selections.
19:24pm, 19-05-11, highlighted my fun short 5979 on ftse.
16:08pm, 19-05-11, grabbed 28 quid, so that is 18 quid in the red, from 4 winners and 1 loser out of 5 selections.
15:41pm, 19-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5979 on ftse.
15:16pm, 19-05-11, grabbed 40 quid, so that is 46 quid in the red, from 3 winners and one loser from 4 selections.
14:02pm, 19-05-11. highlighted my fun short near 5996 on ftse.
14:00pm, 19-05-11, taken a full loss there, so that is 86 quid in the red, from 2 winners and 1 loser out of 3 selections.
18:23pm, 18-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5943 on ftse just now.
16:37pm, 18-05-11, grabbed 16 quid, as oil starts to buzz higher, so that is 2 winners out of 2 selections, 34 pounds in profit.
16:08pm, 18-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5931 on ftse just now.
13:59pm, 18-05-11, grabbed 18 pounds for a first winner in the new series, so it is 1 winner out of 1 selection.
13:12pm, 18-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5893 on ftse.
20:57pm, 17-05-11, didn't time it right, bailing out, so that is 162 pounds in profit, from 100 selections, 31 losers, one breakeven and 68 winners. That completes this whole series and a new series of 100 fun bets will be started from tomorrow.
19:49pm, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude near 9693.
19:22pm, 17-05-11, nicked 8 quid as oil is still buzzing, wait a bit and see how it goes, so that is 178 pounds in profit, from 99 selections, 30 losers, one breakeven and 68 winners.
19:11pm, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun short 5880 on ftse.
17:03pm, 17-05-11, grabbed 22 quid, so that is 170 pounds in profit, from 98 selections, 30 losers, one breakeven and 67 winners.
16:47pm, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 12402.
14:16pm, 17-05-11, bailing out, won't trade until after 4:30pm, now, so that is 148 pounds in profit, from 97 selections, 30 losers, one breakeven and 66 winners.
14:03pm, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5892 on ftse, it is Dividend Tuesday.
13:30pm, 17-05-11, bailing out, so that is 164 pounds in profit, from 96 selections, 29 losers, one breakeven and 66 winners, it is not oozing down, which is disappointing.
12:43pm, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun short again at 5908 on ftse.
12:33pm, 17-05-11, grabbed 14 quid, as it is still dividend Tuesday, so that is 176 pounds in profit, from 95 selections, 28 losers, one breakeven and 66 winners.
12:18pm, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun short at 5916 on ftse.
10:36am, 17-05-11, grabbed 12 quid, slow going, so that is 162 pounds in profit, from 94 selections, 28 losers, one breakeven and 65 winners.
09:43am, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun long 5923 on ftse.
08:50am, 17-05-11, grabbed 46 quid, as inflation data is coming up, so that is 150 pounds in profit, from 93 selections, 28 losers, one breakeven and 64 winners.
08:41am, 17-05-11, locked in for a ride.
07:09am,17-06-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5891.
20:08pm, 16-05-11, banked 20 quid, so that is 104 pounds in profit, from 92 selections, 27 losers, one breakeven and 64 winners.
19:42pm, 16-05-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5885 just now.
14:51pm, 16-05-11, took a little hit on that long, so that is 84 pounds in profit, from 91 selections, 27 losers, one breakeven and 63 winners. Was in profit, but didn't manage it well, so not had a good start.
07:05am, 16-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5896 on ftse.
08:15am, 15-05-11, taken off the reports on euro and gold now, as need to go through a review of indices and things before doing the weekly reports on ftse and dow.
"across different time frames, on ASX200: it has fallen out of the triangle; could be a bearflag here; lower doji close pattern being shaped up, possibly confirming the bearflag; very bearish momentums all across the board.
on DAX: not completed the full crossing upwards to the upperbank yet; still bullishly going upwards and onwards, backed up by bullish momentums; showing signs of tired bulls, not bearish here; upstream moo river survived the Japanese disaster, momentums are turning bearish.
on Hangseng: possible rejection by the blue upperbank; last time was a doji, now this one is important, momentums are still bullish; price continues to be rejected by the bollinger upperband, some bearish intent creeping into momentums; a sustained bear run, backed by bearish momentums.
on Nikkei: flat meandering across in the downstream moo river, but surely this rebuilding process is a jab of fresh blood into an ailing system; bearish momentums, but price is meandering with an upward bias so far, pending another dive; superhammer lives, and momentums are hesitating, price might surprise on the upside; bearish momentums, bearflag forming on price, testing of superhammer lifeline is necessary, no conclusive pictures on indices, now I do the reports."
21:41pm, 13-05-11, some reflections upon the past week:
"Well, get the easier bit done first, as this week's forecasting on this divergence basis is going to be really hard, to be frank (also, perhaps as a caution).
The fun bet series has finally been turned around from almost 300 pounds in the red at its worst to 100 pounds in profit with ten selections left in the series. I am a bit annoyed by Google blog service which lost me two days' diary with no explanation at all. Anyway, think we have had a good week and I have enjoyed my playing oil with SOIL and LOIL, it certainly moves up and down!
I have received some very heart-warming feedback emails from you. MS had a great FTSE trade for 100 pointer. Our Al. banked 100 pointer while on holiday, now that is a bit of icing on the cake, I think. Our Flying Daytrader Chris has had a good week, collecting hundreds while flying high in the sky. Well, generally speaking, I think we have had a good start to May and a good week. On reflection, the daily forecasts have been spot on and some of the trades could have been managed better for more money. Otherwise, just hope to continue in this winning way for the coming weeks and months. I think I am going to award the weekly Moostar to both Chris and Al., as their successes just sound a bit special, one flying high and another on holiday. You can be a winner whatever you do with a bit of moo magic.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6100-5860 (actual: 6041-5880);
DOW: 12830-12120 (actual: 12781-12536);
Nymex Crude: $102.40 - $94.70 (actual: $104.59-$95.26);
Gold: $1480-$1550 (actual: $1478-$1527);
Euro/dollar: $1.4900-$1.4250 (actual: $1.4442-$1.4067);
Barclays Bank: 278-305 pence (actual: 271-283 pence);
BP: 460-496 pence (actual: 459-439 pence).
Fairly happy about the daily studies and forecasts particularly on oil and ftse this week.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
19:46pm, 13-05-11, a lovely feedback from a member who is a full-time flying instructor and 'part-time' daytrader:
"Hey Trigger
Thanks for last 2 days - I don't usually have much time to trade these days with the weather being so nice for flying, but I've been dipping in and out of FTSE based on your calls yesterday and today and I've done really well. Nice to get back after a days flying to find another couple of hundred in the pot.
C."
How lovely it is to conclude the week with this member's happy feedback.
18:49pm, 13-05-11, very annoyed that google has lost my 2 days' worth of diary. As far as I remembered, we are now on 90 selections with just over 100 quid in profit, from 26 losers, one breakeven and 63 winners. We shorted ftse twice today and banked some profits. So all in all, not a bad week, having turned around the fun bets series into profit finally. But I can't believe google just did that. No explanations at all, such a rude company.
15:13pm, 11-05-11, out of the short now, so that is 51 pounds in the red from 55 winners and 26 losers and one breakeven out of 82 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
09:06am, 10-05-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12685.
08:39am, 10-05-11, grabbed 26 quid, so that is 39 pounds in the red from 54 winners and 26 losers and one breakeven out of 81 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:29am, 10-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5970 on ftse.
18:20pm, 09-05-11, bailed out at a fiver loss, bored with the euro woe, so that is 65 pounds in the red from 53 winners and 26 losers and one breakeven out of 80 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
17:13pm, 09-05-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar near 14310 just now.
17:04pm, 09-05-11, lost 4 quid on that long, the entry was completely wrong, had to bail out in a rising market, shame, so that is 60 pounds in the red from 53 winners and 25 losers and one breakeven out of 79 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
09:49am, 09-05-11, highlighted my fun long at 5960 just now on ftse.
08:44am, 09-05-11, grabbed 50 quid, so that is 56 pounds in the red from 52 winners and 25 losers and one breakeven out of 78 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
07:12am, 09-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5950 on ftse.
13:37pm, 08-05-11, going through a moopenny share review:
"how would the pennies fare if the market will be going through a storm??? this is obviously a question on our mind, for us penny share lovers, lol
I think it all depends on the nature and the development stage of the companies, for some, it is less likely to have an impact and for others, it will be affected more dramatically
on Xtract: there is no cause for excitement here yet, it has been limping along for months, was going to check out the newsflow, but III is off the line, whatever happened there!
on Workspace: after the breakout, now hopefully needing to hold above 28p;
on VIX: bounced off historical low near 16, then some hesitation, a break of 20 will be a major breakthrough;
on VOG: it dived under all supports, then it bounced off sharply, now what? still needing to break 7p to make a case for sustainable development; watch out for our Lady S., nimbled footed, in near 4.5p and out near 6.5p, then alas, we wait for the breakout from 7p;
on Ultrasis: every kiss of the ema200 brings punishment, the first kiss 2 bear years; second kiss 3 bear years and now this kiss?
on US Dollar basket: higher doji close reversal pattern in place, strong finish on Friday and momentums have just gone bullish!
Tri-star: bottoming? lifeless though;
on Thor Mining: slipping down the drain, unfinishes bear business, first dot of bearishness on DM;
on STAN: bouncing off the fanline, 2 out of 5 indicating bullish intent!
on dollar/JPY: bouncing off the fanline, 3 out of 5 showing bullish intent;
on Sirius Minerals: reached the buying zone, no definitive reversal signal yet;
on SAR: seems to be nearing the end of this wave down;
on San Leon: superhammered down, now first signal of a reversal on stoch;
on Range Res: 16p lifeline and 23p ceiling, almost becoming interesting here;
on Solo oil: 1p is the lifeline on this one, there is an update coming up, I heard?
on PMK: surely time for a big bounce with all the bullish momentums;
on Ortac: must be a sign of things with all these pennies stuck in Wave 2 down;
on Nostra Terra: a rise to 2p might satisfy the bulls for this particular wave, looking similar to Solo before its rise to 2p?
etc etc"
11:17am, 08-05-11, done all seven reports, a defining week to come.
08:38am, 07-05-11, some reflection upon the past week:
"well, it was a reasonable start to May. Called a number of good trades, but didn't hold them to their full potentials. Reduced the fun bet series deficit to a great degree. Now it is a matter of keeping up the good trading and turn it into a profit with the remain 20 odd trades in the series.
the killing of Bin Laden was the spanner into the works at the beginning of the week, but after the week, we can safely conclude that it is still the best to trade on technical indicators, as everything will be and is incorporated into the markets.
to be honest, trading demands looking across the board at all the time, could do with two or three computer screens, but as it is, has to jam a few charts across the screen, it has not been easy to stare at them all day long. always insist on being greedy when there is a lot of fear and being fearful when there is a lot of greed. feeling better after this week, which is good.
I have come to the conclusion that our Iaan has been trading very well in recent weeks and he was spot on for every twist and turn of ftse, which is amazingly good, lol. So, Iaan, you are our Moostar of the week, just beating off the challenge of our consistent MS, who regularly hunts good profit in everything other than ftse, lol. And you also beat off a late challenge from Lady S., who had a swift turn of foot by getting in and out of suk2 and luk2 at a good profit, while baking all them yummy cakes for her kids. Congratulations, Iaan, keep up the good trading. On the other hand, I am a bit disappointed by our MG's lack of continuous efforts in developing his Supertrend Trading System. Well, it worked wonders for him for a while, then somehow it tailed off. Keep it up, MG, for every trading system, it has to go through failures before it gets to find the key to success. One indicator alone is often not enough and need to look across the time frames, to see the correlation between longer and shorter frames. I am sure you will make a success out of it in time.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
Dow: 13250-12800 (actual: 12923-12520);
FTSE 100: 6160-6020 (actual: 6139-5868);
BP: 460-488 pence (actual: 464-431 pence);
Centrica: 320-335 (actual: 311-329 pence);
Gold: $1580-$1510 (actual: $1575-$1463);
Nymex Crude: $115.30-$105.50 (actual: $114.83-$94.69);
Euro/dollar: $1.5050-$1.4650 (actual: $1.4940-$1.4310).
More or less captured the tops on commodities, forex and indices and indicated correctly a down week, but markets went into an overdrive.
Have a nice weekend."
20:09pm, 06-05-11, bailing out with a cost of 14 quid, so that is 106 pounds in the red from 51 winners and 25 losers and one breakeven out of 77 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
18:35pm, 06-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5920 on ftse.
15:37pm, 06-05-11, nipped 1 quid and coming out of it, so that is 92 pounds in the red from 51 winners and 24 losers and one breakeven out of 76selections from this batch of 100 selections.
14:51pm, 06-05-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar near 14510 just now.
10:48am, 06-05-11, grabbed 54 quid, as non-farm payroll is coming up, so that is 93 pounds in the red from 50 winners and 24 losers and one breakeven out of 75 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
09:10am, 06-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5872 on ftse just now.
06:02am, 06-05-11, some comments on the state of the markets:
"for this Q2, the story is that of a pullback, whether it is a Wave 4 down, pending a Wave 5 up on everything or a Wave 1 down, pending a lethal bear market is the key question
given it is a US presidential year, normally, one would say it is more likely to be a Wave 4 down in Q2 and then recover and make new highs in Q3 and 4.
but that is the thing. it is never a foolproof strategy to wait for a Wave 5, as Wave 4 could easily develop into Wave 1 down for a new bear market
need to do some proper studies over the weekend
but at least this is a topping exercise for this Down wave in Q2 and this is going to last for a month or two, so there is time on our hand to suss out the real intentions of this market
so for now, the bigger story is the down move and the smaller and more immediate story is wether it is a more complicated topping exercise, for example, euro, would it be messing about between 15000 and 14200ish for a few weeks, before finally coming back down
ideally, for those who do not want to monitor the markets too closely (like those on holidays), it is a patient waiting game to load up shorts or suk2 or seu3 or soil or sbul near the topping highs and hold for this Q2 weakness, which is the bigger theme
a trending market is always best traded in that trending direction
Q2, bears are the safest option; bulls are scalpers (in and out)
then in June or July, we reassess."
19:40pm, 05-05-11, grabbed 40 quid, so that is 147 pounds in the red from 49 winners and 24 losers and one breakeven out of 74 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:35pm, 05-05-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5918.
08:10am, 05-05-11, grabbed 28 quid, so that is 187 pounds in the red from 48 winners and 24 losers and one breakeven out of 73 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
07:03am, 05-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 6008 on ftse.
19:42pm, 04-05-11, chopped that long, so that is 215 pounds in the red from 47 winners and 24 losers and one breakeven out of 72 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
14:47pm, 04-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 6010 on ftse just now.
14:44pm, 04-05-11, lost that one, so that is 203 pounds in the red from 47 winners and 23 losers and one breakeven out of 71selections from this batch of 100 selections.
10:34am, 04-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 6051 on ftse just now.
09:42am, 04-05-11, grabbed 80 quid, so that is 103 pounds in the red from 47 winners and 22 losers and one breakeven out of 70 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
20:12pm, 03-05-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 6030 just now.
10:33am, 03-05-11, grabbed 40 quid, so that is 183 pounds in the red from 46 winners and 22 losers and one breakeven out of 69 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:05am, 03-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 6100 on ftse just now.
20:01pm, 02-05-11, grabbed 32 quid, so that is 223 pounds in the red from 45 winners and 22 losers and one breakeven out of 68 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:42pm, 02-05-11, highlighted my fun short on euro/dollar near 14880 just now.
08:39am, 02-05-11, be out for a few quid, reassess the Bin Laden effect, so that is 255 pounds in the red from 44 winners and 22 losers and one breakeven out of 67 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
06:36am, 02-05-11, highlighted my fun short 6131 on ftse.
16:01pm, 01-05-11, going through a review of some moopenny shares and a few other things:
"on Solo oil: quite a few Rgaps down there, first one near 1.3p, still think this is Wave 1 up completed, so expected a fierce Wave 2 down then up again;
on Xtract Energy: seems to be consolidating and waiting for newsflow, bullishly poised, but no big buyers;
on Workspace: a significant breakout here, only for those who want exposure to the rising London property prices and the Olympic theme;
on VOG: 4.6p is the last lifeline, after that, the end!
on Ultrasis: higher doji close here, surely a reversal is on!
on dollar basket index: it has been a long time coming, but the signal is there that the abandoned dollar might stage a bear market rally in the not too distant future;
on tri-star: still drifting in Wave 2, pending a make or break news;
on Thor Mining: completed a five-wave up, now there doesn't seem to be any hurry here, limping down in Wave 2 as well;
on STAN: holding above ema200 and the red fanline, the lifeline for all bulls, double top or collapse?;
on Sirius Minerals: nearing buying zone, though no sign of an end to this Wave 2 down just yet;
on Sareum: momentums are turning slowly, not decisively yet, always interested in this story.
10:11am, 01-05-11, all seven reports done, now paint the town red!
07:17am, 01-05-11, doing the weekly reports, check out the gold report, which is one blog below this Diary.
11:19am, 30-04-11, some weekly reflections:
"I am very glad to see the back of April. Something has gone very wrong there in trading. The fun bet series has gone off the rail, now deeply in red. Need to get a few winners to recover into positivity. The new colour coding system is very good to the eye, but the mind sometimes refused to follow, like yesterday when our short went into a small profit in the morning. Still need to firm up the discipline there. Trading must be done without thinking or blinking. Trading should be an internalised discipline. It is still easily said than done, particularly in April. As they say, it can only get better from this low.
It has been very quiet this week, guess it was because it was a kids at home week with many of you busily engaged otherwise. From Tuesday onwards, it will be business as usual. Let's hope with a bit more concentration, trading can be improved.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and results:
FTSE 100: 6050-5840 (actual: 6112-6004);
Dow: 12630-12000 (actual: 12845-12443);
Tesco: 386-400 pence (actual: 396-407 pence);
BP: 468-455 pence (actual: 472-459 pence);
Nymex Crude: $117.10-$112 (actual: $114.17-$110.73);
Gold: $1520-$1480 (actual: $1570-$1493);
Euro/dollar: $1.4230-$1.4650 (actual: $1.4494-$1.4482).
Have a nice weekend."
20:33pm, 29-04-11, bailing out of the short, so that is 259 pounds in the red from 43 winners and 22 losers and one breakeven out of 66 selections from this batch of 100 selections. Having a bad run here.
15:07pm, 28-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 6073 on ftse just now.
11:59pm, 28-04-11, grabbed 36 quid, so that is 193 pounds in the red from 43 winners and 21 losers and one breakeven out of 65 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
12:33pm, 27-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 6082 on ftse just now.
12:30pm, 27-04-11, lost that short, so that is 229 pounds in the red from 42 winners and 21 losers and one breakeven out of 64 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:31am, 26-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 6025 on ftse.
07:25am, 26-04-11, grabbed 34 quid, so that is 109 pounds in the red from 42 winners and 20 losers and one breakeven out of 63 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
19:38pm, 25-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 6025 on ftse.
15:50pm, 25-04-11, grabbed 24 quid, as Europe is closed, so that is 143 pounds in the red from 41 winners and 20 losers and one breakeven out of 62 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
13:13pm, 25-04-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6031 just now.
14:26pm, 24-04-11, going through some moopenny shares:
"On Xtract Energy: seems to be bullishly intended, but under 5p, we have been stuck for many quarters now;
On Workspace Group: looking a bit more bearish than bullish, best avoided;
On VIX: no end to the bear run in sight, with Rgaps up there waiting to be filled one day!
On VOG: bulls hanging onto the lowerbank by a thin thread, a breakdown of 4.7p is curtains to all bulls;
on UZS: still have not real support, looks with bearish intentions;
on dollar basket: three black crows later, maybe a bounce is due soon, not turned around yet; showing the bullish intentions here loud and clear on another chart;
on Tri-star: a daily close below 0.9p could see it halve to follow the 3 peaks+1 domed house pattern, looking dodgy to me;
on Japanese yen and stock market: 80 is coming back to support the dollar, still some residue weakness left on the shorter frames, but in the main, the trend has far more bullish intentions, maybe time to look for some exposure to the Japanese stock market on Q2 weakness near 8300ish for a bull run towards 13000 in 2012;
on Sirius Minerals: almost completing Wave 4 down, could double up from this support zone to complete a Wave 5 top in July as per attached chart;
on Sareum: seems to have found solid support and that could possibly be the end of Wave 4 down, now Wave 5 up towards 5p, possibly;
on Range Res: double topped and more downside potential than upside at the moment;
on PMK: lifeless;
on Ortac Res: not filled the Rgap down there yet and not found rock bottom for support either.
on Nostra Terra: still bullishly poised for 1.3p, Wave 3 target;
11:53am, 23-04-11, some reflection on the past week:
"Seems to be having a terrible run at the moment and confidence is not skyrocketing either. Trading needs discipline and discipline needs to be internalised so that it becomes a habit, a winning habit. The mistakes made on Wednesday were very much avoidable as it went against my own analyses and forecasts. The first one was impulsive and the second one was emotional. Both were bad trades, perhaps two of the worst so far. These must be avoided. My fun bet series is now deeply in red by £167. This is a very low point in this series.
To get out of this bad patch, need to build up a winning run. Have adjusted the charts with more highlighting, so that it becomes more obvious to the brain which mode we are in, bear or bull. Still suffer from the occasional doubts about the eternal puzzle with regards to chicken and egg (which comes first?). I have decided it is the chicken that comes first, hence 4hourly time frame takes on more importance than 15m charts.
I started the week with learning from our MF a very interesting story, involving war, gypsies, fortunes, lotto wins, etc. And our MF matched 5 numbers on the Lotto, well, he is the only one I kow who have matched five numbers on the Lotto. My best effort was four number for £128 and I got them lucky numbers from the numbers on the wall in a Sunday service at a small church in a beautiful village.
I am going to award our Chris as Moostar of the Week for holding onto his gold bars from way down there till now. What a stubborn gold bull he has been and he is looking for $5000 and he informed me of this lofty target a year or two ago. Well done, Chris, flying high. If anyone wants to learn flying, let me know. I will get you into contacts with our Chris, who must be an excellent flying instructor too.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6066-5900( actual: 6063-5856, just shows seeing the future is very much different from cashing in that vision!);
Gold: $1505-$1375 (actual: $1509-$1478);
Euro/dollar: $1.4600-$1.4220 (actual: $1.4649-$1.4158);
Nymex Crude: $110.80-$102.50 ($112.47-$106.02);
SPX500: 1340-1302 (actual: 1341-1294);
BP: 438-474pence (actual: 449-471 pence);
Home Retail Group: 220-189 pence(actual: 226-209 pence).
If I were a pure MA, you would say these forecasts were alright. But trading has let me down badly recently. Need to turn it around.
Happy Holidays, folks."
11:37am, 22-04-11, done the two reports on BP and Tesco which are available now. Will do the rest of the reports tomorrow. Happy holidays, folks.
19:14pm, 21-04-11, out of the short now for a fiver, a bit bored with it, so that is 167 pounds in the red from 40 winners and 20 losers and one breakeven out of 61 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
12:59pm, 21-04-11, highlighted my fun short on gold (June) near 1507 just now.
08:25am, 21-04-11, lost a tenner on that short, bailing out, so that is 172 pounds in the red from 39 winners and 20 losers and one breakeven out of 60 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:14am, 21-04-11, highlighted my fun short on euro/dollar $1.4603 just now.
08:10am, 21-04-11, grabbed 50 quid from a ftse short from 6061 just now, so that is 162 pounds in the red from 39 winners and 19 losers and one breakeven out of 59 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
05:59am, 21-04-11, got chopped again, so that is 212 pounds in the red from 38 winners and 19 losers and one breakeven out of 58 selections from this batch of 100 selections. Need to turn things around soon.
09:51am, 20-04-11, got chopped in full, now highlighted my fun short again near 6001 on ftse, so that is 112 pounds in the red from 38 winners and 18 losers and one breakeven out of 57 selections from this batch of 100 selections
07:26am, 20-04-11, highlighted my fun short 5951 on ftse.
15:35pm, 19-04-11, nicked a few quid, so that is 12 pounds in the red from 38 winners and 17 losers and one breakeven out of 56 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
13:11pm, 19-04-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5909.
05:28am, 19-04-11, some comments on ftse:
"morning all
1. hefty dividend today, so be careful
2. Asia has been weak, but not collapsing
3. morning 50: 5830 and 5920 (yes, these are volatile times, so it will be a wider range morning);
4. daily range: 5830 till 5930, onto close to 6000 by tomorrow
5. no shorts today, until we get fairly close to 6000 either today or tomorrow, looking to buy near 5830ish
6. gap at 5870, pivot 5920, very wide pivots, R1 is 5830, between S1 and pivot is almost 100 pointer, that is where we will be this morning
DYOR
good luck all"
20:45pm, 18-04-11, grabbed a few quid, so that is 18 pounds in the red from 37 winners and 17 losers and one breakeven out of 55 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
19:49pm, 18-04-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12183 just now.
18:59pm, 18-04-11, bailing out, so that is 24 pounds in the red from 36 winners and 17 losers and one breakeven out of 54 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
14:36pm, 18-04-11, highlighted my fun long on dow 12160 just now.
14:07pm, 18-04-11, booked the money for now, so that is 20 pounds in the red from 36 winners and 16 losers and one breakeven out of 53 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
13:20pm, 18-04-11, bailed out again, highlighted my fun short near 5935 on ftse, so that is 62 pounds in the red from 35 winners and 16 losers and one breakeven out of 52 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
10:01am, 18-04-11, got stopped out at breakeven, went in again with my fun long near 5956 on ftse, so that is 18 pounds in the red from 35 winners and 15 losers and one breakeven out of 51 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:37am, 18-04-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5960.
08:22am, 18-04-11, bailing out of the stuck short, so that is 18 pounds in the red from 35 winners and 15 losers out of 50 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
21:30pm, 16-04-11, done the weekly review of some 30 moopenny shares (such as Sareum Holdings, Thor Mining, Range Resources, Avacta, etc) and done all seven weekly reports now, very curious Monday coming up. Have a nice weekend, folks.
07:50am, 16-04-11, some weekly reflections:
"The wheels came off the Moorivertrading Wagon this week. Half way through the fun bet series, things went badly wrong. Being not able to hold onto the winning oil and ftse shorts at the beginning of the week affected me in some hugely negative ways. Since then, it has all been chasing my own shadow, being aggressive when it should have been patience; being gutless when it demands more determination. It has been a bad hair week. And the fun bet series stands at £10 in profit with the short on ftse hugely under the water. It has to be started all over again from this half-way stage. It is funny how these setbacks kick in whenever the profits grow to over £200. If you look back at the previous series, it happened almost every time. But the trading goes on, as the moorivers never stop. The fight is on.
Our J has been sending me some nice analyses; our MF has been keeping me humoured with some nice work in the mooartish drawing department; our Raffles is still making lots of money and sending me increasingly more freebies for all to share, very generous of him; our MS had made some solid money this week, which is great. Surely, we can't let Raffles be on the podium again. So this week, I am going to award our Iaan the Moostar trader of the week, as he has been spot on all week, being patient when I was aggressive and being courageous when I went under the cover. Our Club does boast of having some great traders, much better than myself, haha. So, Iaan, well done, mate, you have done us proud by removing Raffles from the Podium this week and by the way, next week, Raffles is away on a Horse Show, which gives everyone else a free run for the Podium, haha.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6120-5970 (actual: 6071-5942);
Dow: 12560-12330 (actual: 12444-12163);
Nymex Crude: $119.20-$109.20 (actual:$113.31-$105.32);
Cable: $1.6300-$1.6600 (actual:$1.6227-$1.6426);
Gold: $1480-$1440 (actual:$1488-$1444);
BP: 486-450 pence (actual:479-453 pence);
Essar: 467-525 pence(actual: 447-482 pence).
Have a nice weekend."
06:58am, 15-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 5972 on ftse. some comments on ftse:
"1. gap at 5963; pivot 5979;
2. morning 50: 5990 and 5940; daily range 5990 and 5830".
17:56pm, 14-04-11, booked 34 pounds from that long, so that is 10 pounds in profit from 35 winners and 14 losers out of 49 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
10:43am, 14-04-11, highlighted my fun long near 5958 on ftse.
10:38am, 14-04-11, lost that one too on the readjusted entry for late risers, so that is 24 pounds in the red from 34 winners and 14 losers out of 48 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
06:02am, 14-04-11, highlighted my early bird fun long at 5996 on ftse.
17:00pm, 13-04-11, chopped that one, not with it today, so that is 76 pounds in profit from 34 winners and 13 losers out of 47 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:50pm, 13-04-11, highlighted my fun long near 6005 just now on ftse.
13:01pm, 13-04-11, got chopped, so that is 96 pounds in profit from 34 winners and 12 losers out of 46 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:07am, 13-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 5988 on ftse just now.
19:06pm, 12-04-11, got out for 6 quid, not had a good day, so that is 196 pounds in profit from 34 winners and 11 losers out of 45 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
15:30pm, 12-04-11, highlighted my fun long at 5975 on ftse.
14:53pm, 12-04-11, bailing out at a small loss, so that is 190 pounds in profit from 33 winners and 11 losers out of 44 selections from this batch of 100 selections
10:06am, 12-04-11, highlighted my fun long 5997 on ftse just now.
06:46am, 12-04-11, think there might be the daily ranges on ftse for the coming days:
"Tues range: 5990-6050; Wed 6000-6070; Thurs 6080-6040; Fri: 6090-5960", no panic, though we will be going down later on.
18:07pm, 11-04-11, grabbed 20 quid, it is only a teaser, Rgap filled from overnight, so that is 212 pounds in profit from 33 winners and 10 losers out of 43 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:33pm, 11-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 6054 on ftse just now.
07:34am, 11-04-11, grabbed 30 quid from the short, wasn't going as fast as I expected, so out now, that is 192 pounds in profit from 32 winners and 10 losers out of 42 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
06:50am, 11-04-11, highlighted my riskier fun short on nymex crude near 11296 just now.
20:23pm, 10-04-11, some interesting findings for the coming week, let's see whether we can make some money out of these studies and forecasts, targeting £300 profit on the fun bets. Good luck, everyone.
10:13am, 09-04-11, some weekly reflections below:
"What a week or a non-week! Expected a bullish week, but caught out by one sloppy decision due to a moment of greed while the market was going up to achieve the weekly top and only got out of it at the last minute on Friday. Doh. Slightly improved the fun bets from £122 to £162 profit and we are already 41 selections down in the 100. There are still some undisciplined moments before placing the orders and managing a trade which has gone wrong (hesitations etc). Should make it into a more routine and disciplined regime, in and out without too much fantasies of allusions. Easily said than done. More progress needed.
Well, let's chill out for the Grand National weekend. To be honest, it seems to be a more open race than any other years. So I have decided to add a fourth selection to the Mooriver Grand National Representatives, that of Or Noir de Somoza. Ideally, it should be two selections every year, but the later inclusion of Royal Rosa and the change of jockey on Or Noir de Somoza changed my mind there. Next year, will wait till Friday to nominate our Mooriver horses.
For this week, we have all learnt to start to use the awesome R gaps for daily trading. What can I say? Raffles, you have made it onto the Moostar Podium yet again!
Let's look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6060-5890 (actual: 6067-5986);
Dow: 12500-12290 (actual: 12459-12320);
Cable: $1.6100-$1.6370 (actual: $1.6092-$1.6428);
Nymex Crude: $110-$97.60 (actual: $113.21-$107.51);
Gold: $1430-$1400 (actual: $1475-$1428);
Marks & Spencer: 339-358 pence (actual: 339-367 pence);
BHP Billiton: 2511-2355 pence (actual: 2587-2493 pence).
Now, coming back to the Grand National, if it starts with O, then all I can think of is OTT, which means the rally on the crude oil (Black Gold) is over the top, or OWTT, way over the top, adding AF's What A Friend in there, lol.
Good luck to our Mooriver Grand National horses (Or Noir de Somoza, Royal Rosa, Arbor Supreme and What A Friend), may they enjoy a bold showing against the giant fences and go home safe and sound.
Have a nice weekend."
20:00pm, 08-04-11, finally got out of the ftse short for 2 quid profit, so that is 162 pounds in profit from 31 winners and 10 losers out of 41 selections from this batch of 100 selections. Had a terrible week.
06:43am, 08-04-2011, this year, three horses have been chosen to represent our Mooriverwatch Club in the Grand National: Royal Rosa at 66/1, What a friend at 10/1, and Arbor Supreme at 20/1, good luck all.
08:46am, 07-04-11, chopped that short on BHP, so that is 160 pounds in profit from 30 winners and 10 losers out of 41 selections with that short on ftse running from this batch of 100 selections.
10:15am, 06-04-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6025 again.
08:52am, 06-04-11, grabbed 32 quid from the ftse short, so that is 192 pounds in profit from 30 winners and 9 losers out of 40 selections with that short on BHP running from this batch of 100 selections.
07:53am, 6th April, 2011, highlighted my fun short 6027 on ftse just now.
11:43am, 5th April, 2011, highlighted my fun short on BHP Billiton shares at 2507 pence on June contract just now.
09:56am, 5th April, 2011, taken 38 quid from the ftse short, so that is 160 pounds in profit from 29 winners and 9 losers out of 38 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
18:23pm, 4th April, 2011, picked the second Mooriver Grand National Horse, Arbor Supreme, so we have two selections running for the Club for a bit of fun: What A Friend at 12/1 and Arbor Supreme at 20/1, think they are confirmed runners, if they opt out on the day, will name some replacements. Fingers crossed.
09:02am, 4th April, 2011, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6018 just now.
10:11am, 3rd April 2011, done all the seven weekly reports, what a lovely Mother's Day, blue sky, plenty of spring sunshine, enjoy!
10:23am, 2nd April 2011, some weekend reflections as follows:
Didn't have a good week. Pushed the fun bets profits to over 200 quid, then whack, another full stoploss on Friday, non-farm payroll day. And throughout the week, as we got closer to 6000, I was biased in a bearish mode, which was wrong. We should always look at the markets as they are, not what we want to see them as. That was the main problem this week. So we ended the week with the fun bets series at 122 pounds in profit, a step back from £148 profit last week, so a wasted week really.
I am really impressed with our star trader Raffles. Not only he turned bulls at the bottom of these markets and bought in big time and enjoyed a run for his money, his observations of these intra-day gaps are simply amazing! Our wide-stoploss system trader Iaan has had a good week. I thin our Supertrend trader MG is suffering from a setback at the moment. MS is still keeping things simple and straight forward and making good money. And our Lady S is still holding onto her shares for the bull run, well done, Lady S, call that woman's bargain hunting instinct, haha. Our Mooartist MF is still busy charting through the various company shares. And others are balancing work and trading, as we head into the end of the tax year. I must say we did not take full advantage of this TYE rally which was expected as one of the themes in my FTSE study at the beginning of the year. In fact, it happens every year, be it with or without earthquakes, tsunamis, nuclear disasters and wars.
I am going to award our Raffles as our Moostar of the week, as his gap spotting has been a great help to us all, and he did it for the benefit of us all while running his very busy internet business: http://www.berkeleystudio.co.uk/ Thanks, mate, congratulations.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5920-5670 (actual: 5878-6016);
Dow: 12238-11650 (actual: 12419-12171);
Cable: $1.6180-$1.5930 (actual: $1.6151-$1.5937);
gold: $1446-$1385(actual: $1440-$1410);
Nymex Crude: $107.06-$97.28 (actual: $102.71-$108.46);
Lloyds Bank: 59-62 pence (actual: 58.2-61.7 pence);
Centrica: 332-316 pence (actual: 334-318 pence).
It is very interesting to note that on the indices where I trade the most, I tend to swing quite a lot, from independence to a biased dependence. A mixed bag of forecasts.
Have a nice weekend.
20:21pm, 1st April 2011, grabbed 10 quid from the short, so that is 122 pounds in profit from 28 winners and 9 losers out of 37 selections from this batch of 100 selections. Not had a good day.
14:46pm, 1st April, 2011, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12360 just now.
14:42pm, 1st April, 2011, lost that short, so that is 112 pounds in profit from 27 winners and 9 losers out of 36 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:09am, 1st April 2011, got stopped out for 1 massive quid profit, shame, now highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5945 for a gap trade on this non-farm payroll day, so that is 212 pounds in profit from 27 winners and 8 losers out of 35 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
20:53pm, 31-03-11, locked in and see if there is a ride on it into tomorrow.
18:12pm, 31-03-11, highlighted my fun short on Dow near 12355 just now.
16:36pm, 31-03-11, grabbed 84 quid from the short, so that is 211 pounds in profit from 26 winners and 8 losers out of 34 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
14:46pm, 31-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5950 just now.
11:31am, 31-03-11, grabbed 44 pounds from the short, so that is 127 pounds in profit from 25 winners and 8 losers out of 33 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
18:27pm, 30-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5964 just now.
16:00pm, 30-03-11, grabbed 18 quid as yankies are erupting, so that is 83 pounds in profit from 24 winners and 8 losers out of 32 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
12:39pm, 30-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5961 just now.
12:33pm, 30-03-11, lost that fun short on dow, so that is 65 pounds in profit from 23 winners and 8 losers out of 31 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:18pm, 29-03-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12237.
14:50pm, 29-03-11, grabbed 18 quid, so that is 181 pounds in profit from 23 winners and 7 losers out of 30 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
14:37pm, 29-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5891.
21:03pm, 28-03-11, grabbed 15 quid from the Dow short, so that is 163 pounds in profit from 22 winners and 7 losers out of 29 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
18:48pm, 28-03-11, every year, we will have a fun bet on the Grand National for a bit of fun. In 2009, I nominated Comply or die, which came Third; last year, we got on the winner Don't push it; and this year, I have decided to nominate What a friend as our Mooriver Grand National horse and close to the race, I will nominate one lucky number as a backup horse. Have fun and good luck, folks.
17:46pm, 26-03-11, done all seven reports now, time to relax and enjoy the weekend as the coming Monday is no ordinary Monday. Be happy, folks.
06:43am, 26-03-11, a warming feedback from a member:
"Hi Trigger,
A good weekly forecast on the FTSE thanks. it was a shame about Wednesday and it's comforting that experienced traders like you also have these bad brain days!
I stayed long Wendesday and Thursday, and i think the market has shrugged off Japan/Libya etc and will go on to new highs again. But then today i ignored my thoughts and decided to short. It's funny how our mentaility can change in an instant, and i forget my previous plans and it cost me. I've been making decent profits the last few weeks, but i always find i am well up by the end of Wednesday and then i give back a fair chunk on Thursday and Friday. Maybe i get complacent as i've banked a good number of points, and the overriding aim of trading like a machine, without emotion, disappears, and is replaced by "lets have a punt" type attitude. This the main flaw i need to eliminate from my trading. I did used to have a problem of becoming too emotional after a heavy loss and compounding it even further but i've well and truly managed to get rid of that demon now.
I think the focus on the FTSE is paying dividends now, and this is only the start, i'm sure it will get better and better through the year. Even 30 points a day, consistenly would be fabulous.
On another note i've sold MTV this week. I got a bit frustrated with a lack of progress and put my money elsewhere, into Encore Oil. I might buy back into MTV next Friday with the profits, LOL!
I'm enjoying the Moo club and the input from others as well as yourself of course. I wish i could offer more but i don;t get much time with working full time and having kids at home. Maybe one day in the future i will have more time.
Have a good weekend. Thanks again
G"
21:04pm, 25-03-11, some reflections upon the past week:
"One bad-hair Wednesday cost a fortune. The fun bet series was pushed over 300 pounds in profit, then bang, disaster hit, and got whacked fully twice in a day. Discipline is everything and keep the brain working as long as there is a trade placed in the ever-changing market. In the end, we ended with 148 pounds in profit, though with a Dow short stuck. To be honest, my brain never recovered fully from that shocking Wednesday. It was not that I didn't see it coming either, I just got stuck into a shallow Wave 4 and got punished by an extended Wave 5, which was well expected both in the weekly study and in my daily updates. Need to get it out of the system over the weekend.
On that Wednesday, our MG banked over 100 bull pointers. Hats are off and hands are up, well done, mate. You are our Moostar of the Week.
Let's make it short and sweet as I am almost ready for bed, tomorrow is a full mooriver gazing day with all the seven reports to be done. So let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE100: 5640-5900 (actual: 5730-5935);
SPX500: 1256-1345 (actual: 1283-1319);
Gold: $1413-$1455 (actual: $1420-$1448);
Nymex: $102-$113 (actual: $102.11-$106.67);
Cable: $1.6100-$1.6440 (actual: $1.6008-$1.6401);
BP: 470-432 pence (actual: 485-460 pence);
Barclays: 285-255 pence (actual: 284-295 pence).
Have a lovely weekend, folks."
12:39pm, 25-03-11, highlighted my fun short on dow 12206 just now.
10:39am, 25-03-11, grabbed 24 quid, so that is 148 pounds in profit from 21 winners and 7 losers out of 28 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
10:05am, 25-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5917 again.
08:31am, 25-03-11, grabbed 30 quid, so that is 124 pounds in profit from 20 winners and 7 losers out of 27 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
07:01am, 25-03-11, highlighted my fun short at 5916 on ftse just now.
21:47pm, 24-03-11, lost that one too, so that is 94 pounds in profit from 19 winners and 7 losers out of 26 selections from this batch of 100 selections. Have to start all over again. What a bad hair day.
15:18pm, 23-03-11, highlighted my fun short near 5870 just now on ftse again.
15:06pm, 23-03-11, lost that one, so that is 194 pounds in profit from 19 winners and 6 losers out of 25 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:58am, 23-03-11, highlighted my fun short near 5819 on ftse just now.
15:28pm, 23-03-11, grabbed 44 quid, so that is 316 pounds in profit from 19 winners and 5 losers out of 24 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
15:13pm, 23-03-11, locked for a run, hopefully the lock survives.
14:23pm, 23-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5748 just now.
11:36am, 23-03-11, grabbed 32 quid from the short, so that is 272 pounds in profit from 18 winners and 5 losers out of 23 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
11:08am, 23-03-11, highlighted my fun short near 5794 on ftse just now.
08:58am, 23-03-11, got stopped out for 8 quid, so that is 240 pounds in profit from 17 winners and 5 losers out of 22 selections from this batch of 100 selections. very hard going as a bull as well.
08:08am, 23-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5736 just now.
18:50pm, 22-03-11, got stopped out for 2 quid, so that is 232 pounds in profit from 16 winners and 5 losers out of 21 selections from this batch of 100 selections. very hard going as a bear.
17:29pm, 22-03-11, locked in and see if there is a ride on this short.
16:23pm, 22-03-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12035 just now.
15:29pm, 22-03-11, grabbed 13 quid, not going anywhere, so that is 230 pounds in profit from 15 winners and 5 losers out of 20 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
13:32pm, 22-03-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12033 just now.
10:36am, 22-03-11, grabbed a tenner profit, so that is 217 pounds in profit from 14 winners and 5 losers out of 19 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:58am, 22-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5800 just now.
16:55pm, 21-03-11, bailed out for a tenner loss, bored stiff, so that is 207 pounds in profit from 13 winners and 5 losers out of 18 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
07:21am, 21-03-2011, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5777 just now.
15:13pm, 19-03-11, done all my reports while the French warplanes raged a battle over Libya. May there be peace after this coming week. Have a nice weekend, folks.
09:53am, 19-03-11, some reflections on the past week:
"What a week. When fear is rampant, be brave. Shortly after I called the start of a possible Tax Year End rall, we got chopped in a quick minute by an EU official's piece of horseshit, I lost the courage to be a bull for the rest of the week, which was obviously highly bullish. Trading is not easy, you need good timing, patience, discipline and often a lion's heart to put up a fight when there is rampant fear. But we have improved the profit on my fun bet series from £55 last week to £217 this week, which is a comforting thought, as we have been trading under a lot of uncertainties this week.
Our J has kept me informed of some technical issues on SPX500 throughout the week, which was very good of him, out of a busy day job. Our Mooartist MF sent me various moocharts to keep me informed of how he looked at some shares and the markets, which was appreciated. Our Lady S. is keeping up spirits though she has been lying low in bed due to a bug. Bless her, it is the human spirit that makes us different from other species. Our MS made some excellent calls on Japanese Yen and MG is still tinkling with his Supatrend trading system. And so on so forth. It is a week that the world has been plunged to the brink of a major nuclear disaster, so I guess we all traded with some fear in the background. It has not been easy. Our Raffles made the plunge to buy big into the markets near the bottoms, a brave decision, which seems to stand out. So I am awarding our Raffles as our Moostar of the week. Well done, mate.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5900-5630 (actual: 5842-5498);
DOW: 11860-12340 (actual: 12040-11515);
Gold: $1400-$1438 (actual: $1381-$1431);
Nymex Crude: $97.50-$103.10 (actual: $96.23-$103.65);
Euro/dollar: $1.4090-$1.3830 (actual: $1.4184-$1.3856);
BP: 460-490 pence (actual: 470-431 pence);
Barclays: 288-310 pence (actual: 279-305 pence).
Have a nice weekend, folks."
16:13pm, 18-03-11, grabbed 4 quid, frustrating week, so that is 217 pounds in profit from 13 winners and 4 losers out of 17 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
11:37am, 18-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5723 just now.
10:20am, 18-03-11, nibbed 6 quid, was too early on this one, so sit on the sideline for now, that is 213 pounds in profit from 12 winners and 4 losers out of 16 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
06:19am, 18-03-11, highlighted my fun short near 5713 on ftse just now.
16:51pm, 17-03-11, got out for 2 quid, what a day, so that is 207 pounds in profit from 11 winners and 4 losers out of 15 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
13:06pm, 17-03-11, highlighted my fun short near 5682 on ftse 100 just now.
16:36pm, 16-03-11, temptation, grabbed 100 quid, so that is 205 pounds in profit from 10 winners and 4 losers out of 14 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:22pm, 16-03-11, locked in for the ride.
15:37pm, 16-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5647 just now, limit set for 5260 for a fat finger plunger overnight.
15:10pm, 16-03-11, all went wrong here, got out of the longs, so that is 105 pounds in profit from 9 winners and 4 losers out of 13 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
14:37pm, 16-03-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 11795 just now.
12:29pm, 16-03-11, highlighted my fun long on BP near 456p.
12:21pm, 16-03-11, got the entry wrong, so out for a few quid profit, so that is 217 pounds in profit from 9 winners and 2 losers out of 11 selections from this batch of 100 selections, a wasted morning of misadventure there, what a shame.
09:53am, 16-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5672 just now.
09:20am, 16-03-11, took a little loss before the job news, so that is 211 pounds in profit from 8 winners and 2 losers out of 10 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:15am, 16-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5692 just now.
19:27pm, 15-03-11, grabbed 76 quid, so that is 219 pounds in profit from 8 winners and 1 loser out of 9 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:52pm, 15-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5673 just now.
11:52am, 15-03-11, grabbed 15 quid from that long, so that is 143 pounds in profit from 7 winners and 1 loser out of 8 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
10:45am, 15-03-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 11718 with guaranteed stop loss, of course, in these uncertain times.
10:11am, 15-03-11, grabbed 66 quid from that long, when fear is rampant, brave bulls come out to play with guaranteed stop losses, so that is 128 pounds in profit from 6 winners and 1 loser out of 7 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
09:55am, 15-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5595 just now with guaranteed stop loss, dangerous world out there.
19:48pm, 14-03-11, grabbed 24 quid, so that is 62 pounds in profit from 5 winners and 1 loser out of 6 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
18:21pm, 14-02-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5784 just now.
17:58pm, 14-03-11, grabbed 13 quid, not going anywhere beyond S1, it seems, so that is 38 pounds in profit from 4 winners and 1 loser out of 5 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
15:41pm, 14-03-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 11920 just now.
12:52pm, 14-03-11, chopped that short, needing a fresh start, so that is 25 pounds in profit from 3 winners and 1 loser out of 4 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:29pm, 12-03-11, all seven weekly reports done, now chilling out for the weekend.
08:08am, 12-03-11, the weekly reflection is here:
"Well, it has been an interesting week. In terms of mooriver fun bets series, we started proper with the 4th batch of 100 fun bets. The 4th batch ended with 120 pounds in profit (from 8th Nov 2010 to 13th Jan 2011) and we have just finished the 5th batch with £306 in profit (from 13th Jan 2011 to 10th Mar). I am pleased with the progress so far and now look forward to consolidate and make further improvement.
However, on Friday, after the earthquake and tsunami, I made yet another schoolboy error, by trading contrary to my own bullish analysis in the morning, almost on a whim, on hearing the miserable news around the world, then got attached to that trade and didn't get out at the minimum cost as quickly as possible. Over time, we have seen how costly these mistakes can be, otherwise the fun bet series would have been far more profitable. It is my aim to reduce such errors in the coming days and weeks. Mistakes cost, either money or opportunities and more often both! Always trade what we see, not what we think or want to see. The Mooriver Trading System is a trading system based on technical analysis, so generally speaking, fundamental news need to be ignored as the tenet of technical trading is that all news are already or will be priced into the charts.
While our Raffles delivered his usual big bets in the first half of the week again and Lady S made 3 out of 3 successes in SUK2, I think I am going to award our MS Moostar of the week, as he stuck to his guns on Friday, being a bull to the end. Trading as a bull with all them negative news flying around takes a lot of guts and determination. So plenty of respect from me to our MS, well done, mate, I should have acted after your prompt messages.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE100: 6150-5950 (actual: 6044-5786);
SPX 500: 1345-1297 (actual: 1328-1284);
euro/dollar: $1.3920-$1.4350 (actual: $1.4036-$1.3752);
Nymex Crude: $103-$113 (actual: $106.95-$99.16);
Gold: $1455-$1410 (actual: $1445-$1403);
BP: 515-490 pence (actual: 504-466 pence);
Range Resources: 20-14 pence (actual: 24.2-18.6 pence).
I was expecting the bear run to kick off from a slightly higher level for two weeks, but it started earlier than expected.
Anyway, have a nice weekend, folks, and count ourselves lucky and very much blessed for living in this peaceful country with better weather to come."
22:12pm, 11-03-11, forgot to update, highlighted a fun short on ftse near 5800 this morning and now stuck. Was in the right frame of mind (bullish) this morning and the more I read abou the news, the more wrong I went. That was that.
08:26am, 11-03-11, grabbed a tenner on that long, a bit too early, so that is 55 pounds in profit from 3 winners out of this batch of 100 selections.
06:28am, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun long at 5812 on ftse 100.
20:43pm, 10-03-11, nicked 14 quid before going to bed, so that is 45 pounds in profit from two winners out of this batch of 100 selections.
20:02pm, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5833 on ftse 100.
15:53pm, 10-03-11, grabbed 31 quid from the long, that kicks off my new series of 100 fun bets.
15:32pm, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 12000 just now.
14:32pm, 10-03-11, banked 65 quid to close the series on a high, so that is 306 quid in profit, out of 66 winners and 28 losers and six breakevens from 100 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
12:07pm, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12130 just now.
12:03pm, 10-03-11, lost 32 quid on that one, was too risky with regards to BOE decision, so that is 241 quid in profit, out of 65 winners and 28 losers and six breakevens from 99 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
11:04am, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5884 on ftse just now.
09:36am, 10-03-11, out for a quid, the entry was too early, so that is 273 quid in profit, out of 65 winners and 27 losers and six breakevens from 98 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
07:39am, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 16163 on cable just now.
07:32am, 10-03-11, grabbed 12 quid, so that is 272 quid in profit, out of 64 winners and 27 losers and six breakevens from 97 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
07:21am, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5886 just now on ftse.
21:02pm, 09-03-11, nicked 2 quid, now ready for some sleep, good night folks, so that is 260 quid in profit, out of 63 winners and 27 losers and six breakevens from 96 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
20:45pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my risky fun long on nymex near 10400 just now.
19:45pm, 09-03-11, grabbed another tenner, so that is 258 quid in profit, out of 62 winners and 27 losers and six breakevens from 95 selections in the new batch of 100 selections, that is all the scalping done for now. Time for a break.
19:37pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5935 on ftse.
19:29pm, 09-03-11, got out at breakend, so that is 248 quid in profit, out of 61 winners and 27 losers and six breakevens from 94 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
19:23pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long at 5943 on ftse.
19:04pm, 09-03-11, grabbed another tenner, so that is 248 quid in profit, out of 61 winners and 27 losers and five breakevens from 93 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
18:48pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5941 just now.
18:19pm, 09-03-11, grabbed another tenner, so that is 238 quid in profit, out of 60 winners and 27 losers and five breakevens from 92 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
18:09pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5937 on ftse.
15:23pm, 09-03-11, out for a tenner, seems to be lack of ooomph, so that is 228 quid in profit, out of 59 winners and 27 losers and five breakevens from 91 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
14:49pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5940 on ftse just now.
14:02pm, 09-03-11, bailing out, so that is 218 quid in profit, out of 58 winners and 27 losers and five breakevens from 90 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
13:53pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long 5953 just now on ftse.
13:22pm, 09-03-11, nicked two quid, now sit on the sideline, so that is 226 quid in profit, out of 58 winners and 26 losers and five breakevens from 89 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
11:53am, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse again near 5963 just now.
11:45am, 09-03-11, grabbed a tenner, not an ideal entry, too early as well, so that is 224 quid in profit, out of 57 winners and 26 losers and five breakevens from 88 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:32am, 09-03-11, highlighted my early morning fun long on ftse near 5963 just now.
16:35pm, 08-03-11, nicked 46 quid, so that is 214 quid in profit, out of 56 winners and 26 losers and five breakevens from 87 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
16:17pm, 08-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5950 just now.
15:18pm, 08-03-11, picked 18 quid having seeing it diving to the limit, so that is 168 quid in profit, out of 55 winners and 26 losers and five breakevens from 86 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
13:37pm, 08-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5944 just now.
20:36pm, 07-03-11, grabbed 26 quid, so that is 150 quid in profit, out of 54 winners and 26 losers and five breakevens from 85 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
20:23pm, 07-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5946 just now, having another go.
18:43pm, 07-03-11, not feeling comfortable with it, so out now, that is 134 quid in profit, out of 53 winners and 26 losers and five breakevens from 84 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
18:35pm, 07-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5945 just now.
12:53pm, 07-03-11, grabbed 27 quid, so that is 138 quid in profit, out of 53 winners and 25 losers and five breakevens from 83 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
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12:20pm, 07-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6029 just now.
09:22am, 07-03-11, grabbed 64 quid from that long, so that is 111 quid in profit, out of 52 winners and 25 losers and five breakevens from 82 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:10am, 07-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5971 just now.
11:01am, 06-03-11, all done now (euro/dollar and FTSE 100), time to chill out.
20:40pm, 05-03-11, done five weekly reports (two companies, gold, nymex and SPX500) so far, probably finish off later on or tomorrow. Remember weekends are the best time to join the Club when you can study these reports and work out your trading plans.
11:30am, 05-03-11, some feedback from our Moostar GK:
"Trigger, really glad you are covering this [Range Resouces]. I've got a decent sum in
from 4p and still think it has a way to go. This could be a life
changer for me so updates appreciated.
Thanks for a great week my most succesful ever I think your Ftse
morning 50 s are working really well. I banked over 500 points mainly
on Ftse and the Dow last night.
For the last 2 fridays I've opened longs on crude with a guaranteed
stop at the closing bell and then sold Monday morning. Worked well so
far so tried again last night. It sort of brings the ethics of
investing to your mind though.
Have a good weekend."
10:18am, 05-03-11, some weekly reflections:
"What a week. Got lucky to escape from that wrong short on ftse on Friday, the non-farm payroll day, but that mistake cost the opportunity to place a good short for the bear run. But mistakes are never free and the fact that I knew it was the wrong short as soon as I placed it only made it worse. Still the fun bet series is now back in profit, after 81 selections. Only 19 selections to go, exciting times ahead!
Things are still clicking into places at the back of my brain, moo rivers, momentums, Fibs, Gann's, and so on. The jigsaw is not yet complete and David Beckham says it should take more than 3 lifetimes (3+), so it is a complicated one, for sure.
With the negative correlation between oil price and stock markets, things are going to become very interesting from here onwards, as oil has hit its own sweet point in this bull run, meaning going parabolic is required to contain some of the bull enthusiasm.
For this week, our Raffles made tens of thousands in one single trade again in the early part of the week and held onto his discipline and his profits, which is a great effort. When he bet big, I got nervous too, haha. When he comes out winners, I share the joy. Still, it is a normal good week for him as he mixes big trades with small ones, which is the key to a more sustainable success, while running his very busy and successful internet business: http://www.berkeleystudio.co.uk/acatalog/info.html
Our MG is on his way to find the secret of successful trading by focusing on the Supatrend indicator, which has given him some encouraging results this week. Our Lady S had two winners out of two SUK2, since returning from her holidays abroad. The holidays have given her that bit more patience now, it seems.
But for this week, I am going to award GK as Moostar of the week as he seems to be hitting some sweetspots in his trading, having established his own unique focuses in his part-time trading, while being engaged in a very busy full-time working life.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6033-5700 (actual: 6053-5862);
Dow: 12250-11900 (actual: 12304-11989);
Nymex: $105-$98 (actual: $105.16-$96.46);
Gold: $1400-$1435 (actual: $1404-$1440);
Eur/GBP: 86.50-85.00 (actual: 86.07-84.61);
BP: 515-460 pence (actual: 499-483 pence);
Barclays Bank: 317-286 pence (actual: 322-308 pence).
Quite a good bunch of forecasts, I think.
Have a nice weekend."
15:25pm, 04-03-11, the ftse short survived with extended stop loss and got out at breakeven, that was lucky on a non-farm payroll day, so that is 47 quid in profit, out of 51 winners and 25 losers and five breakevens from 81 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:12am, 04-03-11, some comments on ftse:
"1. daily range: 6050-5980
2. morning range: 5980-6035
3. pivot: 5993
4. gap: 6005
5. non-farm payroll at 1:30pm, big day, little market movements
6. now, the binaries
a. the close at 12 o'clock, will be somewhere near 6005, so the +0-30 and -0-30 will all be in play
b. around 9:45am, we may see the morning low then, might buy some up by 0-30 at 4:30pm, as the close at 4:30pm will be again near +0-30 and -0-30, very close affair
c. the 15pm close will be in the +0-30 zone, possible over 30 for a spike!
d. so the game: I may consider to buy -0-30 on morning spike; buy +0-30 on morning sickness
DYOR"
12:02pm, 03-03-11, highlighted my fun short near 5990 on ftse just now.
11:57am, 03-03-11, some members held it to the very top:
"great stuff trigger thanks, my limit at 5990 was hit. I am having a blinding week!
Out now, but hope for a pullback on dow open then same again.
Cheers"
10:09am, 03-03-11, grabbed 72 quid from the long, so that is 51 quid in profit, out of 51 winners and 25 losers and four breakevens from 80 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:51am, 03-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5925 with a limit for 5990.
08:33am, 03-03-11, chopped that short, so that is 21 quid in red, out of 50 winners and 25 losers and four breakevens from 79 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
10:53am, 02-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5888 just now.
16:22pm, 01-03-11, grabbed 12 quid, so that is 51 quid in profit, out of 50 winners and 24 losers and four breakevens from 78 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:42pm, 01-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5936 on ftse just now.
13:06pm, 01-03-11, stopped out at breakeven, so that is 39 quid in profit, out of 49 winners and 24 losers and four breakevens from 77 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
12:51pm, 01-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5986.
09:28am, 01-03-11, grabbed 30 quid on a divdend day, happy with that, so that is 39 quid in profit, out of 49 winners and 24 losers and three breakevens from 76 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:50am, 01-03-11, highlighted my fun gap short on ftse near 6032.
16:20pm, 28-02-11, grabbed 34 quid from the short, so that is 9 quid in profit, out of 48 winners and 24 losers and three breakevens from 75 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:08pm, 28-02-11, highlighted my fun short near 6018 on ftse just now.
12:37pm, 28-02-11, grabbed 40 quid, so that is 25 quid in red, out of 47 winners and 24 losers and three breakevens from 74 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
11:30am, 28-02-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5977 just now.
08:05am, 28-02-11, out of the ftse short, so that is 65 quid in red, out of 47 winners and 24 losers and three breakevens from 74 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:10pm, 26-02-11, completed all seven reports, time to chill out.
08:08am, 26-02-11, some weekly reflections or confessions:
"Time to confess my sins. The crazy Crude got me this week. The fact that I got one of the pullbacks right was the killer, as it gave me a sense of a major upperhand against the most
volatile beast of all. I thought I had got it under my thumb. But to trade Crude, you really need to get your trading to almost perfection, as any premature moves cost you a lot of money. You
often could look at a profit lock of 100 pointer and felt very happy one moment and another moment later, your order has been stopped out already, as we have seen Crude rising almost 2000
pointer in a very short space of time. On that fateful spike onto the weekly summit, I was only 100 pointer out and one resistance too early (R1 rather than R2) and then lost heart after two quick
losses of full whacks in the morning. After that, I never recovered my emotional composure and the whole week ended up in red on the fun bets.
I am very proud to say that our MG has emerged as our new star trader this week, after he had spent a lot of time to tone up his trading system, mostly through share trading for a long period of time.
This is the thing. If spreadbetting is not working out for you, train yourself up with share trading, which at least gives you some breathing space. I will do that with Crude, using CRUD and SOIL, where I actually made some money this week. So MG, you are our Moostar of the week and I am very proud of your latest progress as you have made many good calls this week.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6120-6000 (actual: 6107-5857);
Dow: 12560-12300 (actual: 12394-11983);
Cable: $1.6370-$1.6040 (actual: $1.6274-$1.6031);
Nymex: $88.88-$95.30 (actual: $91.04-$103.39);
Gold: $1378-$1428 (actual: $1418-$1391);
BP: 513-486 pence (actual: 505-484 pence);
Workspace: 25-29 pence (actual: 25.4-24.1 pence).
Have a nice weekend."
15:18pm, 25-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 6002 just now.
15:15pm, 25-02-11, nipped two quid from the long, so that is 73 quid in red, out of 46 winners and 24 losers and three breakevens from 73 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:08pm, 25-02-11, highlighted my fun long 12129 on dow.
15:06pm, 25-02-11, lost 76 quid on that one, so that is 75 quid in red, out of 45 winners and 24 losers and three breakevens from 72 selections in the new batch of 100 selections
13:50pm, 25-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5970 just now.
11:29am, 25-02-11, booked 42 quid, so that is 1 quid in profit, out of 45 winners and 23 losers and three breakevens from 71 selections in the new batch of 100 selections, a good turn around having lost some mad money on Crude.
10:20am, 25-02-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5956.
09:46am, 25-02-11, grabbed 60 quid, so that is 41 quid in the red, out of 44 winners and 23 losers and three breakevens from 70 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
09:43am, 25-02-11, locked in for the ride north.
08:13am, 25-02-11, highlighted my fun long near 5922 on ftse just now.
21:16pm, 24-02-11, stopped out for a quid on the dow long, so that is 101 quid in the red, out of 43 winners and 23 losers and three breakevens from 69 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
20:10pm, 24-02-11, chopped the gold long, so that is 102 quid in the red, out of 43 winners and 22 losers and three breakevens from 67 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
19:32pm, 24-02-11, highlighted my fun long on dow 12045 just now.
15:16pm, 24-02-11, highlighted my fun long on gold at 1414 just now.
14:49pm, 24-02-11, grabbed 60 quid, so that is 32 quid in the red, out of 43 winners and 21 losers and three breakevens from 66 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
14:15pm, 24-02-11, locked in for a ride.
12:52pm, 24-02-11, highlighted my fun long near 5896 on ftse just now.
11:43am, 24-02-11, stopped out for a quid profit, so that is 92 quid in the red, out of 42 winners and 21 losers and three breakevens from 65 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
10:42am, 24-02-11, locked for a ride.
09:53am, 24-02-11, higlighted my fun long on dow near 12056 just now.
08:29am, 24-02-11, booked the money, so that is 93 quid in the red, out of 41 winners and 21 losers and three breakevens from 64 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:19am, 24-02-11, locked in for a ride.
08:06am, 24-02-11, highlighted my fun long at 5873 on ftse just now.
07:55am, 24-02-11, lost another one, no more trades there, so that is 143 quid in red out of 40 winners and 21 losers and three breakevens from 63 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
07:49am, 24-02-11, highlighted another fun short on nymex 10045.
07:45am, 24-02-11, lost that short, a bad start, 43 quid in red out of 40 winners and 20 losers and three breakevens from 63 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:56am, 24-02-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex 9927 just now.
15:42pm, 23-02-11, cut loose that long now, so that is 57 quid in profit out of 40 winners and 19 losers and three breakevens from 62 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:43am, 23-02-11, highlighted my fun long at 5960 on ftse just now.
21:13pm, 22-02-11, got out at a small loss, don't want to be chopped again in my sleep, so that is 125 quid in profit out of 40 winners and 18 losers and three breakevens from 61 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
18:33pm, 22-02-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 12220 just now.
12:50pm, 22-02-11, some comments on Nymex:
"1. we have broken the resistance of 93, which is very important
2. we may retest that zone to find whether there are any bulls defending that
3. if this is Wave 1, then its pullback could be as much as 87.34, 23.6% fib pullback
4. we need to fill in this gap till 9547 minimum
5. there is an M top against the upperbank, could this be the new upstream moo river?
6. we are licking the pivot near 9568 at the moment.
7. the eventual target seems to be 10032 R1;
8. so you decide:
a. do you avoid oil or trade it?
b. if you trade it, are you a bear or a bull or both?
c. for each stance, how are you going to trade it, spreadbet or etf?
good luck all
==============
Oil spikes as Libya crisis deepens. Crude futures soared in overnight trading, leading IEA chief economist Fatih Birol to raise the possibility the trade group might ask members to release some of their 1.6B barrels in oil reserves to keep a lid on prices. Crude futures are already up more than 9% from last week's close, and things could get worse if hostilities escalate in Libya - a trend that could easily stymie consumer spending and confound an already fragile recovery. "Given the pace at which events are unfolding it would be daft to rule out a spike to $140 or beyond," Capital Economics says. Threats from Gaddafi's son that the country's oil "will be burned" cannot be taken lightly; Libya accounts for almost 2% of global crude production.
=========
being a bear seems to be highly dangerous, lol, on spreadbetting, dangerous, needing guaranteed stop losses either way
better use ETFs without being spiked and pierced and plunged many times over by these cunning lot!"
10:00am, 22-02-11, grabbed 87 quid, so that is 137 quid in profit out of 40 winners and 17 losers and three breakevens from 60 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
09:33am, 22-02-11, locked in now for a ride.
09:00am, 22-02-11, highlighted my high risk fun short on nymex near 9797 just now.
07:59am, 22-02-11, grabbed 80 quid from that short, so that is 50 quid in profit out of 39 winners and 17 losers and three breakevens from 59 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
07:07am, 22-02-11, highlighted my high risk fun short on nymex 9787.
06:42am, 22-02-11, some comments on ftse:
"1. gap: 6015
2. big dividends
3. pivot: 6022
4. daily range: 6030-5900
5. recover from 4pm into tomorrow towards 6000
good luck all"
05:30am, 22-02-11, lost it, that is 30 quid in red out of 38 winners and 17 losers and three breakevens from 58 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
18:16pm, 21-02-11, highlighted my high-risk fun short on nymex near 9540 just now.
09:58am, 21-02-11, grabbed two quid from the short, was too early, so now wait for another reload, that is 70 quid in profit out of 38 winners and 16 losers and three breakevens from 57 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
07:32am, 21-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6072 just now.
16:11pm, 19-02-11, done all the seven reports, now chilling out, fairly straight forward it seems. Take care. BTW, weekends are the best time to join the Club so that you can study the seven reports and plan your trading week.
12:19pm, 19-02-11, doing the seven reports, some weekly reflections:
"It was a shocker on Monday. Next time, if the fun bets come from something which has not been studied in details over the weekend, raise your arms like the Egptians, lol. The fun bet series lost a lot of money that day and pushed it
into red, having seen the peak of 251 pounds profit only the week before! Fortunately, we came back to 68 pounds profits after a few more days of squandered opportunites. We really should have gone for that nymex long. I had my eyes on it for a long time. And in the morning of the big rise, I highlighted it, but never devoted my full attention to it. That has been my main problem, really!
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6120-5940 (actual: 6099-6022);
Dow: 12380-12180 (actual: 12399-12194);
Cable: $1.6080-$1.5800 (actual: $1.6263-$1.5982);
Gold: $1372-$1320 (actual: $1354-$1392);
Nymex: $86.66-$82 (actual: $90.97-$83.85);
BP: 482-456 pence (actual: 495-476 pence);
Ultrasis: 0.9-1.3 pence (actual: 1.0-0.8 pence).
Apart from the Dow forecast, it was a crap bunch of forecasts. Try harder.
Let's hope our Lady S is having a great time in the sunny weather while we are being chilled out by some Spring snow.
Have a nice weekend."
16:05pm, 18-02-11, got out of that ftse short, bored with it, so that is 68 quid in profit out of 37 winners and 16 losers and three breakevens from 56 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
13:17pm, 18-02-11, two ways of going down on ftse:
"1. 5980ish, licked and bouncing back sharply to finish near 6010, and recover on Monday and Tuesday towards 6100, and then down!
2. only testing 6020ish and close near 6050ish and Black Monday to 5860ish
which one do you prefer?"
06:59am, 18-02-11, some comments on ftse:
"1. gap at 6087
2. pivot near 6084
3. a break down of pivot will confirm the bearish intention
4. yankies are closed on Monday, likely to book their profits before the long holiday period with so much uncertainty going on
5. all eyes on crude
6. daily range: 6100-5980
good luck all"
16:49pm, 16-02-11, we could be at a major summit for indices:
"the way I see it is as follows on ftse 100:
1. step 1: to get to 5850ish by Friday (without the step 1, all shorts and skirts are off!)
2. if step 1 happens, then Step 2: back to 6020ish;
3. then crash to 5730ish en route to 5530ish final target for this particular pullback!
yes, it is coming at last!
good luck all"
12:39pm, 16-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6074 just now.
08:35am, 16-02-11, grabbed 40 quid from that ftse long, so that is 64 quid in profit out of 36 winners and 16 losers and three breakevens from 55 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:03am, 16-02-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 6047 just now.
19:03pm, 15-02-11, nicked a quid from the short, time to stay out for a bit, so that is 24 quid in profit out of 35 winners and 16 losers and three breakevens from 54 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
16:40pm, 15-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6032. By the way, Thor Mining looks very bullish to me.
15:32pm, 15-02-11, grabbed 42 quid from the ftse short, so that is 23 quid in profit out of 34 winners and 16 losers and three breakevens from 53 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:06am, 15-02-11, some comments on ftse 100:
1. pivot at 6064
2. gap at 6060
3. Barclays reports
4. CPI at 9:30am
5. no ftse dividend today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
6. morning range: 6070-6020ish
ready for a big down day
14:59pm, 14-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6047 just now, one last attempt on a bad hair day.
14:51pm, 14-02-11, lost that one too, not having a great day, so that is 19 quid in red out of 33 winners and 16 losers and three breakevens from 52 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
12:43pm, 14-02-11, highlighted my fun short on cable near 15991 just now.
12:22pm, 14-02-11, lost that one, got foxed by Asia, so that is 23 quid in profit, out of 33 winners and 15 losers and three breakevens from 51 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
07:13am, 14-02-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar near 13548 just now.
13:10pm, 12-02-11, all seven reports done (including cable and Nymex), now chill out.
10:26am, 12-02-11, done the reports on Ultrasis, BP and Dow and Gold, Nymex Crude, take a break now.
07:49am, 12-02-11, just done the weekly reports on FTSE100, have some breakfast now. It is availabe on the second page, as I used the older template to update the reports.
07:33am, 12-02-11, some weekly roundup comments about the past week:
"A huge week of disappointment. When the profit on my fun bet series grew to £251, I started to become more ambitious and wanted to have some bigger winners, like a few hundred pounds profit a go, which was why
I went for Nymex crude and got bitten badly. That trade went into profit and was not locked in as usual and ended up losing 100 pounds. That loss put an emotional spin on me which led to a FTSE short, which put
the whole series into red, because of the hefty dividend payment on Tuesday. What a bad hair day that Tuesday was, all because China raised its interest rates before their stock market opened for business and I lost
discipline!
Anyway, after that, some careful trading late, the fun series is now standing at 123 pounds in profit, which is a big relief after that disastrous Tuesday. Winning is about disciplined trading, winning is about piling up
small winners more regularly. It is more likely to pile up 50 pounds profit a go on a daily basis, so I will stick to just that for my fun series. I have done 50 fun bets so far, at least it shows a profit at the half-way.
Our MS has had a good week again and our SJ is keeping his cool and our MF is still using his artistic moo drawing to hunt out the winners and our Iaan is still having a laugh with good trades. Other members seem to be
busily occupied otherwise in a busy world. Our Lady S will be jetting off for a holiday abroad soon. Happy holidays, I am going to award our Lady S as our Moostar of the week, for her perseverance and patience with the moorivers. Well done, Lady S.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes for the past week:
FTSE 100: 6040-5800 (actual: 6104-5971);
Cable: $1.6200-$1.5750 (actual: $1.6185-$1.5964);
Euro/dollar: $1.3770-$1.3400 (actual: $1.3744-$1.3498);
Gold: $1365-$1325 (actual: $1369-$1344);
Nymex: $93.30-$79.70 (actual: $89.53-$85.11);
BP: 488-435 pence (actual: 485-472 pence);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1746-1590 pence (actual: 1711-1623 pence).
Missed a lot of opportunities on forex this week, which is a shame.
Have a nice weekend."
16:43pm, 11-02-11, nicked 10 pounds, that is it, ready for the weekend now, so that is 123 quid in profit, out of 33 winners and 14 losers and three breakevens from 50 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:59pm, 11-02-11, highlighted my fun short near 6059 on ftse just now.
10:42am, 11-02-11, grabbed 50 quid from the cable short, so that is 113 quid in profit, out of 32 winners and 14 losers and three breakevens from 49 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:10am, 11-02-11, highlighted my fun short on cable near 16046 just now.
07:15am, 11-02-11, grabbed 25 quid from the dow short, so that is 63 quid in profit, out of 31 winners and 14 losers and three breakevens from 48 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:56pm, 10-02-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12205 just now.
12:56pm, 10-02-11, being stopped out at breakeven, so that is 38 quid in profit, out of 30 winners and 14 losers and three breakevens from 47 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
12:31pm, 10-02-11, highlighted my fun long near 6000 just now.
05:53am, 10-02-11, some observations on ftse100:
"morning all
it seems that we have gone horizontal here, between 6100 and 6000/5950 for now
1. daily pivot is near 6068, if we are kept under here, then a test of 6000ish is very much on the card;
2. BOE decision today at 12;
3. gap at 6052;
4. morning 50: 6070-6020/06
5. ABC under the pivot takes us to 6006;
6. if we break pivot to fill the upgap from yesterday at 6091, then the ABC move will take it down to 6025.
7. bears keep selling into spikes and rallies, bears; bulls wait near 6000 and 5950.
good luck all"
17:22pm, 09-02-11, grabbed 40 quid from the short, needed to take account of the dividend as well on yesterday's loser, so that is 38 quid in profit, out of 30 winners and 14 losers and two breakevens from 46 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
12:33pm, 09-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6071 just now.
06:06am, 09-02-11, lost that short too, so that is 31 quid in profit, out of 29 winners and 14 losers and two breakevens from 45 selections in the new batch of 100 selections. We will have to start from scratch having had one of the worst Tuesdays in recent times. Meandering today, meaning consolidation and scalping.
11:05am, 08-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 100 near 6036 just now.
11:01am, 08-02-11, lost 100 quid on that oil long, doh, as the Chinese raised their interest rate, so that is 151 quid in profit, out of 29 winners and 13 losers and two breakevens from 44 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:38am, 08-02-11, highlighted my fun long on nymex near 8743 just now.
06:13am, 08-02-11, morning, made some observations on UK Coal:
"daily charts:
momentums: Momentum has shaped up a W bottom; Stoch has just gone bullish on the floor; MACD shows waning bearishness; Directional Movement shows a sharp reappearance of bullishness; RSI has W'ed up as well;
price chart: after a prolonged period of bottom basing, we have started to make up waves. We are probably inside Wave 5 up for this particularly run, which could turn out to be Wave 1 up in a bigger picture. For this particular run, a target of 65-70 is doable! We have had a fib 62% pullback and survived on the support of ema200 and now we have pierced bollinger midline again, so it is likely that we will go up to achieve the targets.
good luck all"
19:33pm, 07-02-11, grabbed a massive tenner on that short, so that is 251 quid in profit, out of 29 winners and 12 losers and two breakevens from 43 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:33pm, 07-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse again near 6050 just now.
14:14pm, 07-02-11, grabbed 24 quid from the ftse short, so that is 241 quid in profit, out of 28 winners and 12 losers and two breakevens from 42 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
09:10am, 07-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6044 just now.
11:58am, 05-02-11, forced myself to get the ftse 100 report done, that is it for me, chilling out, the report on indices is the hardest of all.
11:33am, 05-02-11, done six reports so far including nymex and gold just now, but will be pondering over the indices report, which seems to be the most difficult of all.
08:40am, 05-01-11, done the reports on cable and euro/dollar and some roundup notes about the past week:
"Well, we have improved our fun bet profit from 111 pounds to 217 pounds this week, which is a pleasant sight. However, I must say this week has been poorly traded, as the potential there was massive all over the places, same again, we could have done much better.
For this week, I am going to award to our ultra-consistent MS as our moostar of the week. He longed Standard Chartered Bank all the way up and shorted cable all the way down from $1.6200 level to name the two of his winning trades. And to be honest, while our Raffles could hit the markets really hard when things go his way, our MS is the most consistent winning trader in the Club.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5950-5788 (actual: 6025-5814);
Dow: 11800-12020 (actual: 11760-12098);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1686-1496 pence (actual: 1718-1598 pence);
BP: 501-465 pence (actual: 496-475 pence);
Cable: $1.5950-$1.5660 (actual: $1.6278-$1.5822);
Nymex: $89-$91.75 (actual: $88.41-$92.84);
Gold: $1359-$1322 (actual: $1359-$1323).
well, apart from the spot-on forecast on gold and a good one on BP and perhaps dow, it seems to be a poor week for forecasts. Try harder for the coming week.
Have a nice weekend. "
21:03pm, 04-01-11, done the weekly mooriver watch reports on BP and Standard Chartered Bank, now chilling out. Have a nice weekend, folks, and remember, weekends are the best time to join the Club as you can study the seven reports at your leisure and plan your trading for next week. Take care.
16:02pm, 04-02-11, grabbed 30 quid from the ftse short, what a day, so that is
217 quid in profit, out of 27 winners and 12 losers and two breakevens from 41 selections in the new batch of 100 selections. Nice to end the week on over 200 quid profit for the series.
10:03am, 04-02-11, highlighted my fun short at 6010 on ftse just now.
09:36am, 04-02-11, got stopped out for 1 quid on the cable long, so that is 187 quid in profit, out of 26 winners and 12 losers and two breakevens from 41 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:06am, 04-02-11, took the knife to the ftse short, so that is 186 quid in profit, out of 26 winners and 12 losers and two breakevens from 41 selections with cable long running in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:08am, 04-02-11, highlighted my fun long on cable near 16139 just now.
15:01pm, 03-01-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5984.
12:05pm, 03-01-11, grabbed 44 pounds from the cable short, so that is 212 quid in profit, out of 26 winners and 11 losers and two breakevens from 39selections in the new batch of 100 selections. Need a fresh start with no orders.
09:32am, 03-02-11, highlighted my fun short on cable near 16260 just now.
08:51am, 03-01-11, bored with that losing dow short, so got that chopped, so that is 168 quid in profit, out of 25 winners and 11 losers and two breakevens from 38 selections in the new batch of 100 selections. Need a fresh start with no orders.
08:48am, 03-02-11, grabbed 20 quid from the fun short on cable, so that is 216 quid in profit, out of 25 winners and 10 losers and two breakevens from 38 selections with dow short in the red at the moment in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:02am, 03-02-11, highlighted my fun short on cable near 16225 just now.
13:01pm, 02-02-11, grabbed 28 quid from the cable short, the yankies are waking up, so that is 196 quid in profit, out of 24 winners and 10 losers and two breakevens from 37 selections with dow short in the red at the moment in the new batch of 100 selections.
11:01am, 02-02-11, highlighted my fun short on cable near 16216 just now.
09:32am, 02-02-11, nibbled two quid profit, not a good entry price, so that is 168 quid in profit, out of 23 winners and 10 losers and two breakevens from 36 selections with dow short in the red at the moment in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:15am, 02-02-11, that limit short on ftse kicked in at 6000 just now.
07:42, 02-02-11, highlighted a limit order on indices this morning, see if it catches the spike.
19:59pm, 01-02-11, bailed out of the cable short just now, so that is 166 quid in profit, out of 22 winners and 10 losers and two breakevens from 35 selections with dow short in the red at the moment in the new batch of 100 selections. Not having a good day.
16:17pm, 01-02-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 11978 just now.
11:17am, 01-02-11, highlighted my fun short on cable near 16113 just now. the fun short limit order on ftse was cancelled before it would have been hit perfectly.
08:40am, 01-02-11, placed another limit fun short order on ftse.
08:31am, 01-02-11, grabbed 50 quid from the ftse short, so that is 183 quid in profit, out of 22 winners and 9 losers and two breakevens from 33 selections in the new batch of 100 selections. A good start.
08:08am, 01-02-11, my limit fun short order on ftse caught it at 5918, so in play now. loading up suk2.
07:36am, 01-02-11, follow me on twitter, I am Mooriverwatcher there.
06:09am, 01-02-11, some comments on dow:
"I reckon dow will top between 11950-12000, somewhere there, and we might make a marginal high overnight tonight and start to fall tomorrow
but this whole week will be fairly stubborn on dow:
today: up;
tomorrow: down;
Thursday and Friday: up again
Monday next week: big black Monday!
but it is worth the while to build up a short in that zone and hold, as the big fall could come anytime, could be next Monday or tomorrow for real
but with non-farm payroll on Friday, guess this is never going to be the week, so a Black Monday is the most likely consequence, with Egpty probably going into further chaos over the weekend
now please bear this email in mind in terms of trading yankie indices
good luck all"
05:46am, 01-02-11, some comments on ftse:
"morning all
yesterday was the last day of January. there is a saying that if January is up, then the whole year is up and vice versa. so please bear that in mind.
our new toy is a fairly useful toy indeed, right on cue, around 4am, it clicked into a fall on indices, amazing. still need to work out how it is played, but at least, it gives us a bit more assistance in terms of timing, not 100% fool-proof, but it helps.
morning 50: 5870-5920, to fill that gap at 5863 and rise up;
BP is reporting today.
I will be looking to buy SUK2 and build up shorts near 5920ish as well.
no shorts on yankies, until spx hits 1300, maybe or at least after their opening
they might play the divergence game again today
once ftse has seen 5920-30, it might be depressed downwards, while yankies fulfil their tops etc
so if you are on yankies, please be patient
my focus today is to build up suk2 and shorts on ftse near 5920ish and hold on for the ride, like our Marty said, hold my nerves, lol
reckon 11amish is a good time to look at the markets and also yankie opening time
good luck all
Ps shame our limit short order missed it by a whisker."
20:13pm, 31-01-11, placed a limit short order on indices tonight and see if it catches it at 4am overnight.
19:04pm, 31-01-11, lost 34 quid on that short, got the timing wrong due to a bit of impatience, so that is 133 quid in profit, out of 21 winners and 9 losers and two breakevens from 32 selections in the new batch of 100 selections. A good start.
15:23pm, 31-01-11, highlighted my fun short at 15988 just now.
10:17am, 31-01-11, grabbed 56 pounds from that ftse long, a nice little ride there, so that is 167 quid in profit, out of 21 winners and 8 losers and two breakevens from 31 selections in the new batch of 100 selections. A good start.
09:03am, 31-01-11, my limit long on ftse was hit just now, so I am long.
06:53am, 31-01-11, remember today is the last day of the month, so think about that monthly candle on everything. updated on various instruments, now ready for some breakfast.
06:03am, 31-01-11, morning all, some comments on FTSE:
"morning all
the MMs had a good laugh by diving out all the stop losses on the longs overnight, well, that is absolutely free money for them, all they need to do was looking at the order books on various things and dived them out!!!!! hence why it is difficult to leave orders over the weekend, remember to get out of orders before Friday's close and do not trade in the last few hours on Friday so that you never get spiked out or dived out by the wicked MMs.
anyway, it should be a straight forward day, buy on dips and dives.
morning 50: 5881-5821 (well, the gap is at 5881, so extend it by 10 pointer)
after the opening spike, there will be a period of limping towards 5820's, where our limit order should be filled before 10am
then a steady rise onto 5920/30, today, there is a need for ftse to close near 5920/30 to make up a doji candle on the monthly chart!!!!
and a further small rise tomorrow towards 5950/60, then we come back down
so no bears for two days, until we have seen 5950 minimum, or if 5800 is broken firmly
good luck all"
We are placing a limit buy order on ftse to catch it on weakness.
19:25pm, 30-01-11, taken off the cable report now, ready to trade, folks. With the Egptian situation causing major concerns in the world, it is best to wait and see on Monday, see what the big boys want to do. Good luck.
10:28am, 29-01-11, done all seven reports on Standard Chartered Bank, BP, Dow, FTSE 100, Gold, Nymex and Cable. Going out for a lovely dinner tonight. Chill out, folks.
07:23am, 29-01-11, some weekly roundup notes for the Club:
"well, I have received very positive weekly feedback from you, which is very heart warming for me. Al has increased his pot by 40% so far, keep going, Al. J has done well with his pot. Raffles and MS have put into their usual weekly profit of a few thousands each; SJ has had a steadily successful week; Iaan has made some fab daily calls and traded them to good profits; just to mention a few here.
For this week, I am going to award our Marty as Moostar of the week, as he held his nerve and banked 2.5k on some Dow shorts on Friday alone. Held his nerve were the words I mused over, yes, I wish we held onto our fun short that 100 pointer longer, lol, based on my fairly spot-on forecasts.
So very well done, Marty, you are our Moostar of the week, congratulations.
Our fun bets had a good run this week despite a 100 quid hit on a ftse bet, by increasing from 7 quid to 111 pounds in profit. Well, 100 pounds is never good enough yet, same as a team leading 1:0, we need to put a safety buffer into the pot. We have had 30 bets in the new 100 so far, started on 13th January 2011.
Now let's have a look at my weekly forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6042-5850 (actual: 6005-5838);
SPX500: 1300-1270 (actual: 1303-1274);
Nymex: $91.60-$86.20 (actual: $89.72-$85.12);
Gold: $1360-$1320 (actual: $1354-$1308);
Cable: $1.6166-$1.5820 (actual: $1.6017-$1.5751);
BP: 510-480 pence (actual: 501-481 pence);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1716-1626 pence (actual: 1684-1620 pence).
No wonder we have had a good week, could have been a lot better judging from the above forecasts and outcome.
Have a nice weekend."
20:57pm, 28-01-11, done the two company reports on BP and Standard Chartered Bank, as the other markets need the weekly closes for the forecasts. Good night.
20:12pm, 28-01-11, got a bit greedy there, got stopped out for a quid, so that is 111 quid in profit, out of 20 winners and 8 losers and two breakevens from 30 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
19:01pm, 28-01-11, might be making a 123 reversal on dow. we might have pinched the dow bottom, lol, locked in for a ride north.
18:49pm, 28-01-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 11823 just now.
15:25pm, 28-01-11, grabbed 50 quid from the dow short, happy days, so that is 110 quid in profit, out of 19 winners and 8 losers and two breakevens from 29 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
13:31pm, 28-01-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 11992 just now.
11:58am, 28-01-11, contrasting signals from the yankie indices and ftse, so which one leads and which one is the poodle???? interesting day! but difficult to trade.
10:53am, 28-01-11, lost 8 quid on that long, annoying, if I had gone long on anything else, it would have been a profit on crude, euro, even Dow. So that is 60 quid in profit, out of 18 winners and 8 losers and two breakevens from 28 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:39am, 28-01-11, highlighted my fun long near 5924 on ftse just now.
My logic for this long was as follows:
"1. gap unfilled, without it, we can't have a sustained bear run, which was my forecast from today onwards;
2. we are still waiting for yankie GDP and the gaps on the yankie indices are value bets for the yankies
3. Asia was steady and China closed up, well above 2700
4. oil is a bit bubbly
5. forex might be due for a pullback at least
6. morning 50 pointer almost done
7. we are testing last Gann's fanline coupled with S2
so a gamble was born"
07:02am, 28-01-11, grabbed 15 quid from the dow short, so that is 68 quid in profit, out of 18 winners and 7 losers and two breakevens from 27 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
05:58am, 28-01-11, locked that short.
19:50pm, 27-01-11, some comments on Dow:
"so that is what I think
daily range for Friday: 12020-11840
dive at GDP and bounce back around 3pm on consumer confidence
close the day at 11950
and next week, goes up to 12020/50 for a day or two
then either on Tuesday or Wednesday, we start our journey south towards 11150ish
how's that for you???? haha"
18:07pm, 27-01-11, highlighted my fun short at 11996 again, let's play the yoyo until tomorrow's yankie GDP.
16:41pm, 27-01-11, grabbed 14 quid at last from the Dow short, given up the ghost, have to wait for tomorrow's yankie GDP, so that is 53 quid in profit, out of 17 winners and 7 losers and two breakevens from 26 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
10:23am, 27-01-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 11995 just now.
09:05am, 27-01-11, looks like the indices are ripe for a hangover now, cable and crude might confuse the bears though.
08:43am, 27-01-11, stopped out at breakeven, so that is 39 quid in profit, out of 16 winners and 7 losers and two breakevens from 25 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:29am, 27-01-11, locked in now.
08:07am, 27-01-11, highlighted my fun long near 5957 just now.
07:13am, 27-01-11, be more patient, bears, it looks like a bullish January altogether, so bulls enjoy a little ride there for now. That limit short order has now been taken off, pending further assessment.
18:41pm, 26-01-11, highlighted my fun limit short order at 6035 on ftse, see if it catches the FOMC spike!
17:10pm, 26-01-11, some members are having a good run:
"good call had a good day and you made two good call one yesterday and today I made £1500 on those two call.
Thanks
M"
16:12pm, 26-01-11, grabbed 30 quid and that is it for today as the FOMC is coming up, so that is 39 quid in profit, out of 16 winners and 7 losers and one breakeven from 24 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:23pm, 26-01-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5996 again.
14:41pm, 26-01-11, grabbed 50 quid from the short, so that is 9 quid in profit, out of 15 winners and 7 losers and one breakeven from 23 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
12:50pm, 26-01-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 100 near 5996 just now.
10:23am, 26-01-11, got out of the crude long at breakeven, not a good call, would have made money going long on anything else but crude, so that is 41 quid in the red, out of 14 winners and 7 losers and one breakeven from 22 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:16am, 26-01-11, some comments on ftse entitled "buy on dips and dives until 6006 at least, if not 6040ish":
"1. gap at 5918
2. pivot at 5936
3. key line in the sand is 5950, double top, a break there bring another 50 bull pointer
4. morning 50: maybe 5930 and 5980
5. I think we go up without covering the gap today, bouncing off the daily pivot near 5930 is my guess
good luck all"
15:32pm, 25-01-11, highlighted my long on nymex near 8677 just now.
11:39am, 25-01-11, it is a scalping range for cable and ftse, yoyoing until tomorrow.
11:30am, 25-01-11, grabbed 36 quid from that ftse long, so that is 41 quid in the red, out of 14 winners and 7 losers from 21 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
10:05am, 25-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5910 just now.
09:51am, 25-01-11, lost that one, so that is 77 quid in the red out of 13 winners and 7 losers from 20 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:03am, 25-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5957 just now. Cable is very weak today. Big day.
16:37pm, 24-01-11, banked 18 quid from that ftse short, as the yankies are still flying up like mad, so that is 23 quid in profit out of 13 winners and 6 losers from 19 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
16:12pm, 24-01-11, highlighted my fun short near 5955 on ftse just now, only scalps.
11:51am, 24-01-11, lost 4 quid on the ftse long, not too happy with that one either, will have a rethink, so that is 5 quid in profit out of 12 winners and 6 losers from 18 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
10:13am, 24-01-11, got stopped out for another quid on cable, annoying, so that is 9 quid in profit out of 12 winners and 5 losers from 18 selections with the fun long on ftse running in the new batch of 100 selections.
09:57am, 24-01-11, now locked in on the cable long for a ride, hopefully.
09:29am, 24-01-11, highlighted another fun long on cable near 15944 just now.
09:14am, 24-01-11, got stopped for a 1 quid profit, so that is 8 quid in profit out of 11 winners and 5 losers from 16 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
09:04am, 24-01-11, locked in the cable long now.
08:42am, 24-01-11, highlighted my fun long on cable near 15955 just now.
07:39am, 24-01-11, highlighted my fun long near 5908 just now.
05:53am, 24-01-11, morning all, some comments on SPX with a title "buy on dips and dives on indices until spx sees at least 1300":
"morning all
it seems that spx has a clear structure for a 12345 and we are in wave 5
1. a small possibility for a pullback to 1277 to do an ABC wave rather than 12345; if we see 1277, fab price to buy. this is a reserve scenario.
2. more likely, we are completing a Wave 5 to 1293ish by 12am today
a. to complete Wave 5 near 1293 by 12am today
b. to conduct an ABC wave after that
i. to come back from 1293 to 1283 (friday closing gap) or 1286, as wave A;
ii. to rise towards 1295 as Wave B by 4am Tuesday;
iii. to pullback towards 1288 by 11am Tuesday; as Wave C;
c. after the ABC wave, to rise up towards 1304 by 9am on Wednesday, serving as an extended Wave to the original 12345 wave structure started on Friday, then come back down or we reassess, more likely to come down.
Raffles, what do you reckon?????
good luck all
PS if you are focusing on indices, use SPX for reference, as its structure seems to be clearest so far. SJ, use spx for guidance on dow and ftse trading. good luck."
15:41pm, 23-01-11, taken off the reports now. The end of January, a fairly important week. Some say if January ends up, then the whole year will go up! We will see about that. Good luck all.
15:12pm, 22-01-11, done all the weekly reports on the seven instruments, including gold, cable, spx500, ftse 100, BP, Standard Chartered and Nymex. Now chilling out.
09:46am, 22-01-11, some weekly roundup:
"What a miserable week this has been!
Our fun bets were building up the steam towards 200 quid profit and then I made two fatal mistakes and it ended up with 7 quid in profit, back to square one!
My focus on euro meant that I took my mind off the indices and missed the biggest selloff there and on crude too, because Euro was going upwards, which somewhat foxed my mind a bit!
I think forex is there to confuse everyone, while crude and indices are more positively linked.
Yet another few lessons learnt. Please, my dear teacher, are there any more lessons there to be learnt before I can walk and then fly!
The Chinese market looks very dodgy to me and FTSE is directly linked to the Chinese story as of today's FT.com, since FTSE is very much heavily weighted in commodity shares. So never get confused with bullish yankies and bearish ftse, it is only because their components are different!
This week, our Raffles has made it big and made it good with a weekly profit about 16k, yes, £16,000, he betted big and won big, but at one time, he confessed he was in danger of losing 20k, wow, that is the naked truth about trading, where risk and return is linked at the hip! I looked at the trading records he emailed me and noticed he focused on trading spx500 only, there lies one of the eternal truth of trading, focus on your niche instrument (not instruments!)!
So very well done, Raffles, you are our moostar of the week for the second week in a row and keep a steady hand for next week, buddy, we all get carried away after big wins.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6040-5690 (actual: 6081-5862);
DAX: 7130-6920 (actual: 7172-7007);
Euro/dollar: $1.3250-$1.3860 (actual: $1.3244-$1.3626);
Gold: $1383-$1323 (actual: $1379-$1338);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1718-1650 pence (actual: 1739-1664 pence);
Barclays Bank: 330-293 pence (actual: 312-291 pence);
BP: 509-473 pence (actual: 515-492 pence).
Please, me Lord, don't punish me too much for seeing the future of the markets. If I can't trade rich myself, at least let me help my members to riches!
Have a nice weekend."
17:47pm, 21-01-11, got stopped out for a pointer profit, so that is 7 quid in profit out of 10 winners and 5 losers from 15 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
17:26pm, 21-01-11, locked in now for a ride.
16:50pm, 21-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5882 just now.
15:51pm, 21-01-11, got chopped on that euro short, which went terribly wrong, so that is 5 quid in profit out of 9 winners and 5 losers from 14 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
10:49am, 21-01-11, generally recovering, switched to the dark side on euro a bit earlier, now building up SEU3 to gradually short into euro from here onwards.
19:21pm, 20-01-11, highlighted my first fun short on euro/dollar near 13477 just now, yes, I have been a bull so far, but I think I have changed my stance now.
17:32pm, 20-01-11, grabbed 32 quid from the nymex long, at last a winner, so that is 105 quid in profit out of 9 winners and 4 losers from 13 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
16:30pm, highlighted my final fun trade for the day, long on nymex near 8945 just now.
16:18pm, 20-01-11, cut loss on the euro long, so that is 73 quid in profit out of 8 winners and 4 losers from 12 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:34pm, 20-01-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar, 13449.
12:52pm, 20-01-11, took a hit on the ftse long, so that is 85 quid in profit out of 8 winners and 3 losers from 11 selections in the new batch of 100 selections, got both orders wrong this morning, mistakes are never free.
09:03am, 20-01-11, out of the euro long for 3 quid, as I got the entry too early, some 50 pointer out, so that is 151 quid in profit out of 8 winners and 2 losers and one ftse long running from 11 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:36am, 20-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5923 just now.
06:23am, 20-01-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar near 13475 just now.
10:48am, 19-01-11, grabbed 45 pounds from the cable short, now that is 148 quid in profit out of 7 winners and 2 losers from 9 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
09:14am, 19-01-11, locked in now, waiting for the unemployment news.
07:37am, 19-01-11, highlighted my fun short on cable 16030 just now.
06:43am, 19-01-11, grabbed 98 quid from last night's euro/dollar long, happy days, so that is 103 quid in profit out of 6 winners and 2 losers from 8 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
17:46pm, 18-01-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar near 13374 just now.
14:45pm, 18-01-11, got stopped out for 2 quid, so that is 5 quid in profit out of 5 winners and 2 losers from 7 selections in the new batch of 100 selections, not going very fast here.
13:10pm, 18-01-11, locked that short, see if there is a ride, either today or tomorrow.
09:03am, 18-01-11, highlighted a fun short on ftse 100 near 6053.
07:31am, 18-01-11, Tuesdays are normally for the bulls to buy on dips and dives, and euro/dollar looks likely trending higher from the double bottom near $1.3250ish.
19:10pm, 17-01-11, got stopped out on the swing short on cable for a quid profit, how aweful, need to work on the stop loss system on swing trades, it is such a shame, so that is 3 quid in profit out of 4 winners and 2 losers from 6 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
14:18pm, 17-01-11, grabbed a tenner on the short from Friday, the entry was very poor, so glad to come out a little winner, so that is 2 quid in profit out of 3 winners and 2 losers and one cable short still running from 6 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
13:18pm, 17-01-11, nominated my fun swinging short on cable near $1.5925 just now, limit $1.5000.
06:25am, 17-01-11, Black Monday it is!
15:55pm, 15-01-11, all weekly reports done, did FTSE 100, gold and Standard Chartered just now. Chilling out. Have a nice weekend, folks.
11:45am, 15-01-11, done the weekly reports on Barclays, BP, Euro/dollar and Dax.
21:49pm, 14-01-11, some weekly roundup notes:
"Our Raffles surprised me with a long on spx500 at 1000 pounds a pointer, lol, and he has grabbed some good money this week. Well done, Raffles, you are our Moostar of the Week.
Still, it is not necessary to use big stakes per pointer to make good money. If you'd done this week's cable range at £1 a pointer, that is 300 quid profit already. The higher the stakes, the higher the risks and the more the tension on the trader. We will just speculate with stakes to our own individual means. Still, it is nice to have a trader like our Raffles in our Club.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6040-5920 (actual: 6057-5939);
Gold: $1407-$1370 (actual: $1393-$1355);
Cable: $1.5470-$1.5770 (actual: $1.5476-$1.5889);
SPX500: 1262-1281 (actual: 1262-1294);
Nymex: $88.50-$83.00 (actual: $88.14-$92.68);
BP: 516-466 pence (actual: 512-479 pence);
Ortac: 2.7-2.2 pence (actual: 2.5-2.2 pence).
To be honest, apart from the BP oil leak on Nymex, everything else was fairly decent and the daily forecasts were solid on ftse as well.
Just need to make more money out of these weekly studies.
Have a nice weekend."
15:22pm, 14-01-11, highlighted my fun short near 5994 on ftse just now.
14:32pm, 14-01-11, grabbed a tenner, still a bit jittery about the long side at the mo, so that is 8 quid in red out of 2 winner and 2 losers in the new batch of 100 selections.
13:09pm, 14-01-11, highlighted my fun long near 5961 just now.
12:09pm, 14-01-11, lost that tight stop loss risky play, so that is 18 quid in red out of 1 winner and 2 losers in the new batch of 100 selections.
11:47am, 14-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse at 5970.
09:32am, 14-01-11, grabbed 32 quid from the fun short on ftse, so that is 12 quid in profit out of 1 winner and 1 loser in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:20am, 14-01-11, keep shorting into rallies and spikes, though it is a scalp in the morning and a big run from 17/18pm on the yankies. Good luck all.
18:49pm, 13-01-11, highlighted my fun short at 6012 on ftse 100, think the downside may have kicked off with that 23.6% pullback this morning.
18:32pm, 13-01-11, cut that one loose as well, giving up on trading today, not getting it right, so that is -20 pounds in the new batch of 100 selections.
16:35pm, 13-01-11, highlighted another fun long at 6023 on ftse, we are breaking into new ground.
16:23pm, 13-01-11, cut loose that one for a small loss for now, not too happy with a broken triangle, so that is 120 pounds in the profit overall, from 64 winners and 32 losers and 4 breakevens out of 100 selections. That is that for the 4th batch of 100 selections.
15:22pm, 13-01-11, highlighted my fun long at 6016 on ftse.
12:09pm, 13-01-11, some comments on ftse:
"looks to be a two day rise towards 6120
today yoyoing between 6000 and 6060 to confuse both bulls and bears, but closed in strength near 5950ish and tomorrow, we shoot off in the 8-12am period and tank big time when the yankies come to play
so let's be patient, longs are preferred
good luck all"
11:21am, 13-01-11, used a too tight stop loss, lost that one, shame, so that is 128 pounds in the profit overall, from 64 winners and 31 losers and 4 breakevens out of 99 selections.
08:50am, 13-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 6028.
05:58am, 13-01-11, two possible scenarios on ftse 100:
"1. 6060 and 5990, a dive at 5990, only to bounce back to get to 6120ish tomorrow;
2. 6020-6120, dive at 6020 and then rise to 6120 today and later tank down to close in the weakness
well, to be honest, 6120 seems to be a must achieve target for ftse for January, so before we see that, there is no point of staring out for too much downside
bulls, maximum stop loss 5980-70, under there, the 6120 story does not stand up any more.
above 5970-80, buy on dips and dives for 6120
as for today, there is weakness on hourly across the instruments, but strength on 15m across the instruments as well, haha, so sell into early spikes, like 15800-20 on cable; 6060ish on ftse; oil could be very wild indeed, 9330-9280, look out for a short.
good luck all"
21:28pm, 12-01-11, amended the daily range forecasts on ftse, and announcing a bear festival tomorrow, be patient, bears, but the rewards will be handsome. Good night.
17:30pm, not fully committed, perhaps shouldn't have gone for that one, set us back 40 quid, so that is 168 pounds in the profit overall, from 64 winners and 30 losers and 4 breakevens out of 98 selections.
15:47pm, highlighten another fun short on ftse near 6037 just now.
14:21pm, got stopped out for a choc bar, so that is 208 pounds in the profit overall, from 64 winners and 29 losers and 4 breakevens out of 97 selections.
11:42am, 12-01-11, highlighted my fun long at 6030 just now on ftse.
11:19am, 12-01-11, grabbed 12 quid from that short, so that is 207 pounds in the profit overall, from 63 winners and 29 losers and 4 breakevens out of 96 selections
08:47am, 12-01-11, highlighted a fun short on ftse near 6042 just now.
08:24am, 12-01-11, grabbed 50 quid from that long, a quickfired winner for the morning, so that is 195 pounds in the profit overall, from 62 winners and 29 losers and 4 breakevens out of 95 selections
07:47am, 12-01-11, indices are turning up very bullish so far, with honkers leading the way overnight, China rebounded to close above 2800 key support and ftse has broken 6016 handle. highlighted a fun long on ftse near 6017 just now.
15:35pm, 11-01-11, cut that short, it was called at the wrong time on a wrong day, lost 8 quid, so that is 145 pounds in the profit overall, from 61 winners and 29 losers and 4 breakevens out of 94 selections
08:57am, 11-01-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6013 just now.
06:25am, 11-01-11, what a special day with so many 11111's. Tuesdays are ftse dividend day, so normally it is better to find a theme of buying on dips and dives on some instruments. Markets are dangerously poised for a big move today, so be careful.
20:33pm, 10-01-11, grabbed 40 quid from the ftse long, so that is 153 pounds in the profit overall, from 61 winners and 28 losers and 4 breakevens out of 93 selections
12:40pm, 10-01-11, today's range from the weekly study was between 5940 and 6020, let's see how it goes, I have worked out all five day's ranges in advance, fingers crossed, so far so good.
09:22am, 10-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse at 5963 just now. it fits my weekly study very well, so have a go here. bought some Morrison's shares too.
18:38pm, 09-01-11, taken off the reports now, ready to trade, folks. Good luck.
11:48am, 9th January 2011, done all the reports, most have been or are published here, apart from FTSE 100 with detailed 5 daily movement forecasts, I will keep that within the Club. Have a nice read and a nice day.
08:46am, 08-01-11, some roundup on the past week:
"Our MS is still standing out this week with some excellent calls/trades, well done, MS. Our SJ is getting nimbler and he actually sent me an email about dividend on Tuesday before I made that 100 quid mistake. I wish I had woken up to his warning shot there and then. For that reason alone, I am awarding SJ our Moostar of the week. Well done, buddy, keep them alerts coming, haha.
Having suffered a full 100 quid loss on Tuesday due to the blood rush post holidays and lots of hesitations, we made a recovery on the fun bets to end with 113 quid in profit through some hectic trading. The result is ok, but I am not happy with them at all. Let's see how well we can do the final 8 fun bets in this series with the focus on ftse 100 only!
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5890-6066 (actual: 5944-6091);
Dow: 11830-11580 (actual: 11760-11598);
US Light Crude: $95.70-$90.80 (actual: $92.57-$87.26);
Gold: $1445-$1419 (actual: $1424-$1353);
BP: 468-500 pence (actual: 484-512 pence);
Motive Television: 0.7-1.7 pence (actual: 0.8-1 pence);
Euro/dollar: $1.3860-$1.3330 (actual: $1.3433-$1.2906).
Not too bad, to be honest, as this is the first week in 2011.
Have a nice weekend."
Will be working on the various weekly reports now.
10:35am, 07-01-11, some comments on Nymex crude:
"think the range is between 8922ish already seen and 8588ish
bears: look to build a short in 8900's on guaranteed stop loss and hold for the 300 bear pointer through the job data, wow, that is highly risky, hence the guranteed stop loss!
bulls: look to buy towards the close, near 8600ish
good luck all"
some comments on Dow:
"at evens odds on a non-farm payroll day, it is better to switch off and wait after the job data
1. if a down day towards 11580ish, then a bullish week next week to finish the job! this is my preferred scenario;
2. if an up day, say a rise to 11850ish, then Black Monday and the big falls start next week.
I prefer the first one, but I won't short it now, as nothing will happen until the job data, by then it is too late. the odds is not favourable either, I prefer to short oil, which gives me the odds of 6/1, not too bad, lol, still a gamble!
be patient and log off now.
be back after the job data
take care"
10:05am, 07-01-11, disastrous morning, picked the wrong instrument and wrong horse to trade, so took a loss of a tenner on the Euro long, so wrong, bored stiff as well, I am going for a walk, so that is 113 pounds in the profit overall, from 60 winners and 28 losers and 4 breakevens out of 92 selections.
07:00am, 07-01-11, further comments on trading today:
"indices
while I saw a good drop today to close in the weakness, but the story has a few things thrown in there:
on this ftse chart:
1. it is an upstream moo river, so bulls should in theory defend 6000ish lowerbank now, and the opening gap is at 6020;
2. within this upstream moo river, the counting of waves could be a bit of a bother. If you counted fives waves up till yesterday's top, then we had Wave A down, we are now in this pullback Wave B and finally a dramatic Wave C down as I depicted last night towards 5970/50 zone; but if you have counted only 1234, then we are in this Wave 5 up, aiming for double top near 6090ish (a failed wave 5) or 6133, fib 161% target. with currencies rebelling against the mighty dollar, this theory can stand up too
3. so let's play forex for now and see how far they can go till 10am/11am, then reassess our options!
good luck all
Ps ignore oil and gold for now, focus!"
06:41am, 07-01-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar just now and some commentary on forex, entitled Currency Warfare:
"the euro woe is continuing and it has kicked off a week before my original thinking, which is a bit annoying
but today, I am looking for a big bounce on both euro and cable for 200 pointers each
euro 12970-13180
cable 15420-15620
more aggressive traders can buy now
more conservative ones can wait to buy euro above 13000 and cable above 15450
still a lot of bull pointers left in there
======
the real kick off is in the 8th hour
so more conservative players could wait
either for euro to break 13000 and cable 15450 for you or wait for the end of 7th hour to reassess to see whether it fits your criteria.
============
descending wedge broken bullishly on cable, let's focus on forex for the early morning session and then switch to have a look at indices and then oil much later
good luck all"
21:49pm, 06-01-11, will be playing cable first early morning, then indices mid morning and nymex crude in the afternoon tomorrow. Non-farm payroll day. Good night.
19:00pm, 06-01-11, grabbed 6 quid, called it too early at the end of Wave B, not Wave C, so come out and have a breather, that is 123 pounds in the profit overall, from 60 winners and 27 losers and 4 breakevens out of 91 selections.
18:26pm, 06-01-11, highlighted a fun long on cable near $1.5476.
16:43pm, 06-01-11, worked out tomorrow's trading plan on ftse, now time to chill out.
14:03pm, 06-01-11, got out at breakeven, count myself lucky for not suffering from a bad mistake, all the instruments must be traded individually, I looked across cable and drew a bad conclusion without looking at the technicals of ftse at all, what a mistake, so that is still 117 pounds in the profit overall, from 59 winners and 27 losers and 4 breakevens out of 90 selections.
11:26am, 06-01-11, wasn't a good call, so changed limit to 6040 for a double bottom against this morning low.
09:33am, 06-01-11, highlighted a fun short on ftse, set limit for 6025.
08:48am, 06-01-11, grabbed 17 quid, found it hard going againg 15550ish, so that is 117 pounds in the profit overall, from 59 winners and 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 89 selections.
08:08am, 06-01-11, highlighted my fun long on cable just now.
14:03pm, 05-01-11, grabbed 35 quid from the oil long, so that is 100 pounds in the profit overall, from 58 winners and 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 88 selections.
13:51pm, 05-01-11, highlighten my fun long on nymex just now.
10:35am, 05-01-11, grabbed 12 quid, bored stiff, time for a walk about, so that is 65 pounds in the profit overall, from 57 winners and 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 87 selections.
09:51am, 05-01-11, it is sticky upstairs too, so went for another fun short just now.
09:39am, 05-01-11, grabbed eight quid, a bit sticky on the bollinger midline, so take the short off for now, so that is 53 pounds in the profit overall, from 56 winners and 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 86 selections.
09:28am, 05-01-11, nominated a fun short on ftse at 5998 just now.
08:31am, 05-01-11, purchase a second penny share Aminex at 0.91p to add to our Moopenny Fund.
06:01am, 05-01-11, some observation on ftse 100:
"as per chart
1. above 5990, bulls only until 6055/6090 at least
2. under 5990, bears only until 5930/5890
if we never break 5990 on 15m, then a break of pivot 6011 sends the bulls on their way
if we break 5990, go down to 5770ish, and then bounce back to pivot 6011, that could be a short
good luck all"
some comments on US Light Crude:
"market is undecided
as per chart
above 8960, bulls only;
under 8830, bears only
or play the yoyo in between 8830-8950
three possible plays
good luck all"
21:17pm, 04-01-11, another bullish day tomorrow until at least 4pm, be careful if you are a bear, good night. And this bull run has legs.
17:26pm, 04-01-11, lost the 20 quid gamble on Nymex, rather unnecessary, so that is 45 pounds in the profit overall, from 55 winners and 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 85 selections.
17:13pm, didn't come back to the screen in time for the final short on ftse from 6030, what a shame. Anyway, highlighted another of my fun bet on commodities.
14:51pm, grabbed another 32 quid from the ftse short, so that is 65 pounds in the profit overall, from 55 winners and 26 losers and 3 breakevens out of 84 selections.
14:16pm, 04-01-11, nominated another fun bet on indices.
13:01pm, 04-01-11, grabbed 30 quid as cable is not tanking, so that is 33 pounds in the profit overall, from 54 winners and 26 losers and 3 breakevens out of 83 selections.
12:16pm, nominated another fun bet on indices just now.
11:20am, 04-01-11, grabbed 7 quid from the cable short, so that is 3 pounds in the profit overall, from 53 winners and 26 losers and 3 breakevens out of 82 selections, need to have some fresh air, not had a good day so far.
11:01am, 04-01-11, made a bad mistake on the ftse short, took the full 100 quid loss there, now that is so that is 4 pounds in the red overall, from 52 winners and 26 losers and 3 breakevens out of 82 selections with one running.
10:43am, 04-01-11, nominated a fun bet on forex.
07:15am, 4th January 2011, nominated a fun bet on indices just now, a gap trade. Looking at Cable's overall weakness, the other markets are pullbacks in the bull market so far! Have a nice day.
18:33pm, 03-01-11, out of the cable long at breakeven, don't like the limper too much, so that is 96 pounds in the profit overall, from 52 winners and 25 losers and 3 breakevens out of 80 selections.
17:37pm, 03-01-11, nominated a fun bet on forex just now.
15:48pm, 03-01-11, I am actually a crude bull, but it was not ideal to buy on resistances at the mo and so close to the upperbank too. Probably need to wait for the daily close today to see what happens next, as the daily triangle is under constant threat.
15:31pm, 03-01-11, grabbed 20 quid from the crude short, a bit jittery, as it is counter-trend scalp, so that is 96 pounds in the profit overall, from 52 winners and 25 losers and 2 breakevens out of 79 selections.
15:07pm, 03-01-11, nominated another fun bet on commodities after the ok news from the yankies.
14:02pm, 03-01-11, got stopped out for the quid profit on the crude short just now, so that is 76 pounds in the profit overall, from 51 winners and 25 losers and 2 breakevens out of 78 selections. They even protected the 9180ish double bottom, amazingly stubborn bulls. Now do nothing until after 3pm news.
13:58pm, 03-01-11, locked in now to ride it.
13:38pm, 03-01-11, nominated a fun bet on commodities just now.
13:05pm, 03-01-11, turning bullish across the board now, but quite a few nearing major pivotal resistances.
12:11pm, the daily triangle on US Light Crude looks tradable.
09:57am, 03-01-2011, no ideal trading conditions across the board, so take a break from the screens until the yankies come back.
08:13am, 03-01-11, looking bearish across the board today.
19:03pm, 02-01-11, taken off the weekly reports, ready, steady, go! Good luck all.
12:32pm, 02-01-11, done all the seven reports now, time to chill out. Have a nice day, folks.
20:18pm, 01-01-11, I have done the weekly moo river studies on US Light Crude, Euro/dollar, BP, Motive Television and Gold. Still working on the indices, which is the most difficult of all.
Some notes from the weekend roundup:
"Trade what we see, is the motto for 2011, nothing more, nothing less, and trade on confirmations as much as possible.
From what I have gathered so far, some of our members had a reasonably good year like our consistently winning daytrader MS; our C stood out by turning a 2k account into a 10k one as well as enjoying a fab run on his hold on physical gold, besides flying high in the sky day in day out (if you want to learn flying, let me know, I will pass it onto our C). Our GK sent me this great Christmas present with the following feedback:
"Hello trigger I went out for dinner and had 47 emails when I came home that's what I call a service! U really should have rested yesterday and today, uneed to recharge in these quiet days for the battle ahead!I've really turned the corner with my trading since rejoining the mooclub and have 9 successive weeks of profit between 50 and 140 quidunder my belt. Enough for me as I do this on top of my full time jobcourtesy of my Ig iPhone app, arf arf.I need to decide I'd I am on a lucky run with my trades or gettingbetter, time will tell but for a bit longer catious stakes.My big hope for next year is Range resources but a penny share I do hold is MTV any thoughts welcomed. After all that's why we do it, to make our friends and family better isn't it? I want to be rich then give it allaway!All the best for 2011 and thanks for 2010 ive learned a lot. G"
That made me very happy indeed. Whenever any of you tell me that you have had a good winning day, winning week or month, my heart thumped with pride and happiness. It made all my long hours from dawn to late night worth the while.
GK, you are our Moostar of the week and congratulations and very well done indeed.
On the other hand, in the new year, I need to take regular breaks away from the screens to do some exercises like powerwalk etc., as this mooriver watching/trading business is here to stay for years to come and I need to maintain my good health and protect my eyes as well. That is my New Year's resolution.
Now let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes for the past week:
FTSE 100: 5980-6120 (actual: 5915-6021);
Gold: $1415-$1372 (actual: $1421-$1373);
US Light Crude: $91.40-$96.70 (actual: $89.03-$92.05);
Dow: 11560-11860 (actual: 11514-11624);
Cable: $1.5520-$1.5185 (actual: $1.5345-$1.5665);
Barclays Bank: 260-280 pence (actual: 263-270 pence);
Nexus Management: 0.3-0.4 pence (actual: 0.3-0.3 pence).
For 2011, I will be focusing on watching out for the most accurate forecasts in terms of daily and weekly moo river range updates; watching out for the most probable and least risky trading opportunities in our fun bet series; and watching out for entries and exits for Moopenny Fund (our first investment in Motive Television from 0.71 pence is showing some paper profit there standing near 1 penny, thanks to our Moostar GK's tip! haha).
Have a good holiday, folks."
Thanks for visiting this blog and all the best wishes to all of you for a very prosperous 2011, the year of the Metal Rabbit, come 3rd February 2011.
This is a brief diary of the service provided to t
================
18:11pm, 24-07-11, maybe this blog is too long!
13:48pm, 24-07-11, just done all seven reports, probably gone back to sleep. Good day.
09:32am, 23-07-11, some weekly reflections again:
"It has been an interesting week. The constraint of the fun bet series in terms of number of fun bets left really put the pressure on me and in the end, while the series had a good run to the end, it did not manage to get back into profit, which is a shame.
I still think the main problem in trading for me is my duality as a mooriverwatcher and moorivertrader. The Mooriverwatcher sees too far ahead while the moorivertrader sometimes trades on that farsight, which is not good. The trader has to go through the motions/emotions. For example, there is a dark tunnel and we are walking through it. The deeper we go, the more fearful as the darkness gathers and your heart thumps loud. But the mooriverwatcher has seen the end of the tunnel, so the moorivertrader trades without going through the emotions of fear, etc. That is the main problem for me. I have to trade this moment while being able to see tomorrow (well, sometimes!), lol.
We have started on another new fun bet series. For this particular series, I will focus on primary calls only, so trading on a daily basis may be far and between, but the results should improve. Really need to put in a good series to turn around the negativity of the last series. All to play for, or they say, or trade for. Still, I will be as flexible as possible in terms of instruments that we trade, always trade the one with primary signals, i.e., the ones with least risk and most profit potentials. But do not hesitate to email me whenever you want an update on something else.
For this week, I am awarding our Al and Lady S as Moostars of the week, while MS has had a fab week too and MG has kept us informed of the useful gaps and KK is learning to grasp the moo linguistics. Al's monstrous short from over 6000 was banked near the bottom this week and Lady S held onto her nerves and her Barclays shares and came out trimphantly, yet again, while some had bailed out just before the bank rally kicked in!!!!! Well done, Al and Lady S. and happy holidays, Lady S.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5720-5940 (actual: 5735-5968);
Dow: 12630-12330 (actual: 12800-12294);
Gold: $1630-$1550 (actual: $1610-$1581);
Nymex: $10100-$8100 (actual: $10018-$9506);
Euro/dollar: $1.4330-$1.3700 (actual: $1.4439-$1.4015);
China Food: 42-53 pence (actual: 41-44.5 pence);
Thor Mining: 1.8-2.6 pence (actual: 1.8-1.6 pence).
Overall, much better, but could yet be better.
I have got visitors from abroad, so some of the reports will be done tomorrow.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
16:06pm, 22-07-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude 9935.
13:23pm, 22-07-11, grabbed 73 quid, very disappointing, but they have managed to exhaust the bearish momentums on hourly and 15m, leaving us either to lock in or take the money, so that is 47 quid in the red, from 1 winner and 1 loser out of 2 selections in the new series of fun bets.
07:09am, 22-07-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex 9977 just now.
21:32pm, 21-07-11, lost that short, so that is 120 quid in the red, from one selection for the new series, not a good start.
13:36pm, 21-07-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5878.
13:24pm, 21-07-11, got stopped out at breakeven, had to concede defeat, as I was holding on for too long, could have banked some 100 quid profit, but had to give it a go to see whether the series could end in profit, in the end, it wasn't to be, so that is that, 276 quid in the red, from 60 winners, 35 losers and 5 breakevens out of 100 selections. A bit disappointed, to say the least.
08:23am, 21-07-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex 9858 just now, this is the 100th fun bet, the final one in the series.
18:23pm, 20-07-11, grabbed 196 quid, so that is 276 quid in the red, from 60 winners, 35 losers and 4 breakevens out of 99 selections.
12:45pm, 20-07-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex 9903.
12:32pm, 20-07-11, grabbed 90 quid, so that is 472 quid in the red, from 59 winners, 35 losers and 4 breakevens out of 98 selections.
08:23am, 20-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5808 on ftse.
09:57am, 19-07-11, grabbed 60 quid, so that is 562 quid in the red, from 58 winners, 35 losers and 4 breakevens out of 97 selections.
20:28pm, 18-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5752 on ftse.
20:04pm, 18-07-11, grabbed 61 quid, so that is 622 quid in the red, from 57 winners, 35 losers and 4 breakevens out of 96 selections.
16:46pm, 18-07-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 12313.
16:40pm, 18-07-11, got chopped, so that is 683 quid in the red, from 56 winners, 35 losers and 4 breakevens out of 95 selections.
07:43am, 18-07-11, highlighted my fun long near 5807 on ftse.
21:13pm, 16-07-11, this google blog service is a load of rubbish, with constant dis-formatting to the blog itself. It is a pain!
17:12pm, 16-07-11, done all seven reports and promised myself to chill out until Monday. Take care.
09:11am, 16-07-11, some weekly reflections below:
"Still trying to recover from that horrific week at the end of June, both as a mooriverwatcher and moorivertrader. Had flashes of moments during the week that I was back to the trading mode again, but they did not last long enough to make a positive impact on the fun bet series. Will have to see what I can do from the remaining few bets in the series in the coming week. Need to relax a bit more, I think.
Our MG is working hard on his gap trading system these days and he has kept us well informed of the unfilled gaps, which is much appreciated. Our Al. is still holding onto that mighty short from the very top and has been nimble in some temporary longs and shorts, which is an interesting style of play to say the least. He is playing for fun and hence also making money like fun, maybe that is the essence of the game! In the absence of any other strong contenders, I am awarding our MG and Al. as Moostars of the week, well done to them both.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6100-5940 (actual: 6005-5789);
Dow: 12340-12820 (actual: 12375-12632);
Gold: $1526-$1586 (actual: $1541-$1594);
Nymex Crude: $99-$85 (actual: $99.21-$93.56);
Euro/dollar: $1.4700-$1.4240 (actual: $1.3837-$1.4282);
Barclays Bank: 238-256 pence (actual: 243-219 pence);
BP Plc: 450-480 pence (actual: 449-463 pence).
Still recovering as a mooriverwatcher, as I mentioned earlier.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
21:02pm, 15-07-11, got out for 2 quid profit, disappointed, so that is 563 quid in the red, from 56 winners, 34 losers and 4 breakevens out of 94 selections.
07:01am, 14-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5847 on ftse.
05:31am, 14-07-11, lost that one, so that is 565 quid in the red, from 55 winners, 34 losers and 4 breakevens out of 93 selections. What a day.
18:35pm, 13-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5895 on ftse.
15:30pm, 13-07-11, given up hoping, so grabbed 32 quid, so that is 444 quid in the red, from 55 winners, 33 losers and 4 breakevens out of 92 selections. What a day.
16:48pm, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5876.
15:55pm, 12-07-11, grabbed 14 quid, so that is 476 quid in the red, from 54 winners, 33 losers and 4 breakevens out of 91 selections. What a day.
14:47pm, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun short near 5874 on ftse.
12:53pm, 12-07-11, grabbed 64 quid, so that is 490 quid in the red, from 53 winners, 33 losers and 4 breakevens out of 90 selections. What a day.
12:20pm, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5827 on ftse.
12:13pm, 12-07-11, lost that fun long for 40 quid, so that is 554 quid in the red, from 52 winners, 33 losers and 4 breakevens out of 89 selections. What a morning.
12:00, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5833 on ftse.
10:32am, 12-07-11, grabbed 66 quid, so that is 514 quid in the red, from 52 winners, 32 losers and 4 breakevens out of 88 selections. What a morning.
09:52am, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5820 on ftse.
09:41am, 12-07-11, grabbed 70 quid, so that is 580 quid in the red, from 51 winners, 32 losers and 4 breakevens out of 87 selections.
08:58am, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5800 on ftse.
08:52am, 12-07-11, lost that one, so that is 650 quid in the red, from 50 winners, 32 losers and 4 breakevens out of 86 selections.
08:02am, 12-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5870 on ftse.
21:02pm, 11-07-11, took a tenner, don't want to sleep on longs, so that is 530 quid in the red, from 50 winners, 31 losers and 4 breakevens out of 85 selections.
19:42pm, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5905.
13:38pm, 11-07-11, grabbed 34 quid, so that is 540 quid in the red, from 49 winners, 31 losers and 4 breakevens out of 84 selections. This blog service is shambolic from google.
13:17pm, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5918 on ftse.
13:03pm, 11-07-11, grabbed 60 quid, so that is 574 quid in the red, from 48 winners, 31 losers and 4 breakevens out of 83 selections.
11:56am, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5968,
11:49am, 11-07-11, got out for 4 quid, not going anywhere, so that is 634 quid in the red, from 47 winners, 31 losers and 4 breakevens out of 82 selections.
10:45am, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5966 for a gap close on dow.
10:28am, 11-07-11, lost 40 quid, so that is 638 quid in the red, from 46 winners, 31 losers and 4 breakevens out of 81 selections.
08:52am, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5981.
08:38am, 11-07-11, grabbed 14 quid, so that is 598 quid in the red, from 46 winners, 30 losers and 4 breakevens out of 80 selections.
08:05am, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5991.
07:47am, 11-07-11, lost that long for 24 quid, so that is 612 quid in the red, from 45 winners, 30 losers and 4 breakevens out of 79 selections.
06:57am, 11-07-11, highlighted my fun long on euro near 14199.
13:35pm, 10-07-11, still doing the reports, running a bit late, you may check out the Nymex report in the older blogs, freshly updated.
08:56am, 10-07-11, some weekly reflections:
"As you have seen me going long and short, you know I am no longer stuck in one mode, which is always not really suitable for trading these volatile markets. One has to be a bullbear or bearbull most of the time, though sometimes bulls are preferred and other times bears are preferred.
While the fun bet series has gathered some more losses, I am feeling better now, getting out of the grip of a punching-blind mode. I am looking forward to get in some winning trade next week.
Some of you have traded very well, long and short, like our Al and our ever consistent MS. However, this week's Moostar Award goes to our Marty, who took time out to give me a big shout, to get me out of that vicious loop at last. Thanks, Marty, much appreciated.
When I checked the euro million this morning, I realised I never realised that they have changed the bonus numbers from 1-9 to 1-11. No wonder nobody has won the 166 million jackpot, one of the bonus numbers is 10!!!!!!! lol
Anyway, from here onwards, these markets should be tradable again, until sometime in August, where there will be another junction, when we don't want to make any mistakes at all. By that time, what we will do is wait and do nothing, but define a breakout from a certain zone, so that we can follow the trend from the breakout, that is for August. For now, let's trade this meandering process.
Let's take a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6040-5920 (actual: 6084-5972);
Dow: 12280-12730 (actual: 12534-12776);
Euro/dollar: $1.4580-$1.4350 (actual: $1.4578-$1.4206);
Gold: $1496-$1442 (actual: $1487-$1546);
Nymex Crude: $95.30-$85.80 (actual: $99.41-$94.35);
Barclays Bank: 280-255 pence (actual: 266-243 pence);
BP plc: 462-434 pence (actual: 468-450 pence).
Well, to be honest, after last week's complete wipeout, I suffered a momentum of Analyst's Block, when I stared at the charts and thought how the hell do you forecast the future! lol, that was very close! Guess this sort of Blocks come to us sometimes, like a Writer's Block, etc.. It was a weird moment, as the week before I thought I was 'making' the markets and then I couldn't make any sense at all of the millions of possibilities presented by the charts at that particular moment.
Now let's work out them magic numbers for the Euro billions, lol, 1-11 for the bonus numbers, that reduces the chance of winning by a magnitude of millions yet again! God, if I ever win a big jackpot, I will make a substantial donation to the study of souls and gods. Amen.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
16:42pm, 08-07-11, came out at breakeven, no joy there either, so that is 588 quid in the red, from 45 winners, 29 losers and 4 breakevens out of 78 selections.
15:32pm, 08-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5995 on ftse.
10:40am, 08-07-11, grabbed 22 quid, so that is 588 quid in the red, from 45 winners, 29 losers and 3 breakevens out of 77 selections.
09:24am, 08-07-11, highlighted my fun short 6061 on ftse.
09:20am, 08-07-11, bagged 9 quid, so that is 610 quid in the red, from 44 winners, 29 losers and 3 breakevens out of 76 selections.
08:46am, 08-07-11, highlighted my fun long near 6060 on ftse.
08:10am, 08-07-11, out at breakeven, so that is 619 quid in the red, from 43 winners, 29 losers and 3 breakevens out of 75 selections.
14:39pm, 07-07-11, highlighted my fun short 6060 on ftse.
13:57pm, 07-07-11, lost that short, so that is 618 quid in the red, from 43winners, 29 losers and 3 breakevens out of 74 selections.
18:59pm, 06-07-11, highlighted my fun short 6010 on ftse.
13:30pm, 06-07-11, lost a tenner, so that is 498 quid in the red, from 43winners, 28 losers and 3 breakevens out of 73 selections.
12:25pm, 06-07-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5979 just now.
11:23am, 06-07-11, grabbed 22 quid, so that is 488 quid in the red, from 43winners, 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 72 selections.
09:17am, 06-07-11, highlighted my fun long 5990 on ftse.
08:43am, 06-07-11, lost 20 quid on that short, so that is 510 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 71 selections.
08:05am, 04-07-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5990.
08:52am, 03-07-11, done all seven report, the challenge to turn around a deficit of 490 pounds starts from Monday.
21:13pm, 02-07-11, you may scroll down to read the full Barclays report too.
10:48am, 02-07-11, doing the seven reports, scroll down and click on the left-hand side, May blogs, you can read my latest full gold report.
21:42pm, 01-07-11, the weekly confession/reflection again:
"Got it so completely wrong.
I now think there is a God up there and he actually listened to me last weekend, when I wrote the following:
"Sometimes, I don't really know how I should feel. While this has been one of the best weeks in terms of me as a mooriverwatcher, as a moorivertrader, the fun bet is into profit, but not by much, which leaves a slightly sour taste in the mouth, after my vanity getting its usual fill again. God says, you have to choose between greed and vanity. I could have told him that I want neither or both. But the thunder was too loud for him to hear me. Amen."
And he actually heard me and this week, he has given me a big neither! I should really be careful about what I wish for.
As a mooriverwatcher, I have had such a good run that I think something was creeping into my mind unknowingly to me, that of taking it for granted that I can correctly see the markets. That is really fatal.
To start with, over the last weekend, I have laid out all the dangers, the triangle between 5650 and 5770 and put them down on the charts, "respect breakouts" etc. Then, I was fully aware that the danger of getting it wrong out of the Greek situation could be lethal, as we were stuck in a potential lethal Wave 3 on various markets. Have thought about all that and told you all about that as well, I started to 'make' the markets into ideal scenarios.
And once trading got under the way, once mistakes were made, I couldn't believe after so much trading, I could still become so emotionally attached to the losing direction, in fact, for the whole week.
This has been one extreme week and looking back, I couldn't believe I was that stubborn in sticking to the wrong direction all the way up!
Well, the biggest challenge for me now is to clear my head and start afresh tomorrow, from some hefty losses and a deeply wounded spirt.
I could put up some lame excuses (the change of the chart template for one and other excuses), but the fact is that I got carried away by my mooriverwatching accuracy for the past few weeks and then mistakes pushed me into emotional trading. They say trading is very much pyschological. I was stuck in a vicious loop for the whole week. This is going to be the biggest challenge for me to turn around the deeply red fun bet series.
For the coming week, you need to be a bit cautious about my mooriverwatch reports as I am not 100% sure that I could clear my head so completely to be void of all the hurt pride etc to look at the moo rivers with a calm, clear, rational and imaginative mind.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes, for a laugh:
FTSE 100: 5770-5400 (actual: 5665 and 6018);
Dow: 11400-12180 (actual: 11894-12597);
Gold: $1502-$1442 (actual: $1514-$1478);
Euro/dollar: $1.4450-$1.3900 (actual: $1.4552-$1.4103);
Nymex Crude: $82-$91.30 (actual: $89.60-$95.83);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1517-1350 pence (actual: 1684-1523 pence);
Barclays Bank: 256-188 pence (actual: 266-233 pence).
And please, God, can I be BOTH a good mooriverwatch and a good moorivertrader. Amen.
Have a nice weekend, folks.
PS Always be sure what you wish for, I do now believe there is a God up there looking after us."
21:14pm, 01-07-11, chopped that short, so that is 490 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 26 losers and 3 breakevens out of 70 selections.
20:24pm, 01-07-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6005.
18:44pm, 01-07-11, suffered yet another loss, so that is 474 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 25 losers and 3 breakevens out of 69 selections. It will be a tremendous effort to turn around this biggest deficit on a fun bet series ever. I have turned around 342 pounds deficit before, but nothing as big as this. It will be a mountain to climb.
17:36pm, 30-06-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5945.
16:06pm, 30-06-11, lost that one too, what a miserable week, exactly as I feared, the worst nightmare has come true for the fun bets, so that is 353 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 24 losers and 3 breakevens out of 68 selections.
07:03am, 30-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5876 on ftse.
05:13am, 30-06-11, some reflections and comments on ftse:
"morning all
well, after MF sending that chart, we knew this short would not have lived for long and it got chopped overnight.
I got it so wrong this week. I think I was somehow gripped by fear and ignored all technicals or my eyes went blindingly bearish.
before this week started, we spotted that markets were all in a bear or bull mode, with a lethal wave 3 to come either way, if you read the early emails. and in the end, markets chose the bullish path probably because that was the easiest way out of fear
this is very much deja vu of last year, when I got it so right till about this time and then got it very wrong for a sustained period of time, hopefully this time I would fare better
when you think you are getting this market right, that is when you start to get it wrong!
and mistakes in lethal Wave 3's are painful
time and again, I said no trading or lessing trading, but as long as I made the first mistake, I got sucked into emotional trading
now back in deep red again, need to turn it around
======================================
let's talk about today's trade
1. this is the last day of June
2. while there will be some profit taking, it has not finished its bull run yet
3. pivot at 5841 and gap at 5846
4. I think we are going to yoyo today between 5900ish and 5800ish
5. so morning session: 5900ish-5840ish
6. if we look at the waves, then this is going to be Wave 4 down, pending a final Wave 5 up, though it could be extended as well
I will do my studies this weekend to work out the future movements, as you know I can't do that during the week
so let's trade this Wave 4 down from 5900ish to 5800ish all day long
good luck all"
05:03am, 30-06-11, got it so wrong this week, window dressing by fund managers pushed up the markets, got chopped again, so that is 233 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 23 losers and 3 breakevens out of 68 selections.
09:20am, 29-06-11, highlighted my fun short again on ftse 5828, the other short got chopped, so that is 132 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 22 losers and 3 breakevens out of 67 selections.
07:40am, 29-06-11, some comments on gold:
we have wave 1 from 1577 to 1463
then a prolonged Wave 2o from 1463 to 1558, just a little over 1550 23.6% fib pullback, now we are in this Wave 3 down
for this current Wave 3, we have had a Wave 3(i) from 1558 to 1490
now Wave 3(ii) pullback, could go as high as 1543 23.6% fib pullback
this is a very benevolent downstream moo river so far, the angles are yet to sharpen
13:45pm, 28-06-11, highlighted my fun short near 5768 on ftse.
13:36pm, 28-06-11, lost that short, so that is 11 quid in the red, from 42 winners, 21 losers and 3 breakevens out of 66 selections.
08:07am, 28-06-11, done a sector review, most are in a bear run.
14:55pm, 27-06-11, highlighted my fun short near 5710 on ftse.
12:59pm, 27-06-11, grabbed 32 quid, so that is 110 quid in profit, from 42 winners, 20 losers and 3 breakevens out of 65 selections.
10:04am, 27-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5718 on ftse.
06:02am, 27-06-11, some comments on markets:
"morning all
1. Friday we closed in cash near 5697, so that is our opening gap
2. pivot near 5711, we are under it, which is bearish
3. overnight, HK is leading the Chinese celebration, Japan follows and aussies are suffering their own blues!
4. also overnight, euro gapped up but has since come down, nearing 14100ish key lifeline and nymex too nearing lifeline of 90, they are on the verge of a collapse, so very dangerously poised
5. UK: home price edges lower, showing biggest fall; Wen may sign some big deals with Cameron
6. sequence of movements:
a. morning till 12: it is more likely to drift higher, if we survive the opening for an hour above 5650; if it survives 5650 till 9am, then we are likely to drift towards the gap at 5697 or even pivot 5711 by 12 and then at 12, the binary strike time, it could get very jittery and close at 12 o'clock just under 5697;
this is on the condition if it survives 5650 till 9am, if not, we have to reassess
b. afternoon: 13:30pm, yankie news, their opening gap is near 11935
I see continued pounding of 5650 by bears and 5700/5710 by bulls, a break of either is significant
d. it is more likely to close the day in cash market near 5650
e. it is quite likely for the yankies to close their cash market nearly neutral
f. overnight tonight, we might start to get jittery and penetrate 5659 when everyone is asleep, lol
so overall, if you are buying, then you use guaranteed stop loss against 5640/30 maximum for a few scalps; if you are shorting, then 5700/5730 with 5750/60 max stop loss, (use guaranteed as well)
it is going to be a small range day, unless we dive through 5650 in the opening hour
do nothing is preferred, if you have to trade, make sure you know exactly how much is risked every trade, with guaranteed stop loss or binaries
9am, reassessment, all eyes on euro near 14100 and nymex oil near 90
good luck all"
20:53pm, 26-06-11, doing a round of updates on VIX, Dollar index etc, getting ready for a new trading week. Good luck all.
19:49pm, 26-06-11, welcoming new members, always a pleasure to welcome new members to board the Mooferry. sending out seven reports, etc.
10:01am, 26-06-11, taking off the nymex report now, the euro report is still available, need to scroll down for it. Ready to trade a very volatile week?! Good luck all.
21:25pm, 25-06-11, done all seven reports and to be honest, I had these ranges in mind last weekend. But we need to pause to look afresh next weekend, as we might have a brave new world then. Have a nice weekend, folks.
Ps Using guaranteed stoplosses for spreadbetting may be a very good idea in the coming week.
14:23pm, 25-06-11, doing the seven mooriverwatch reports, scroll down to the bottom and click on the older blogs, you may read my full report on euro/dollar, freshly baked just now. Have a nice weekend.
22:06pm, 24-06-11, the usual weekly reflection again:
"Sometimes, I don't really know how I should feel. While this has been one of the best weeks in terms of me as a mooriverwatcher, as a moorivertrader, the fun bet is into profit, but not by much, which leaves a slightly sour taste in the mouth, after my vanity getting its usual fill again. God says, you have to choose between greed and vanity. I could have told him that I want neither or both. But the thunder was too loud for him to hear me. Amen.
Our Al. has designed a rather intriguing trading system, with guns firing at both directions. And he seems to be sipping his red wine and enjoying it. Our MS and Iaan have put in a solid winning week. Our MG is working out his larger range trading system with some good profits. Our Lady S is keeping herself busy baking a few more yummy cakes, while keeping her cash firmly intact. But I am sure she will be looking forward to the coming week. She can sniff out a bounce a hundred miles off, haha. Overall, it has been one of those weird weeks that things stop and go and when it goes, it goes too fast and furious. Some of our members are traveling around the world at the moment, doing their usual traveling trades. For this week, I am going to award our Lady S Moostar of the week, as she knows when to say NO and when to jump in, so to speak! Patience is a virtue and timing is everything. I admire her patience and womanly instinct very much. So well done, Lady S., you are our Moostar of the Week.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5820-5620 (actual: 5795-5647);
Dow: 12200-11840 (actual: 12217-11873);
Nymex Crude: $96-$90 (actual:$95.70-$89.72);
Gold: $1554-$1510 (actual: $1558-$1499);
Euro/dollar: $1.4430-$1.4000 (actual: $1.4442-$1.4127);
3I plc: 266-284 pence (actual: 264-279 pence);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1520-1620 pence (actual: 1511-1578 pence).
Well, all I can say is that I am a flawed genius in disguise, lol.
Have a nice weekend.
PS Must warn you that the coming week is a Blackswan week, so take all my forecasts with a large pinch of salt, despite the fact that I have been getting more lucky with these magic numbers lately. "
12:09pm, 24-06-11, grabbed 48 quid, so that is 78 quid in profit, from 41 winners, 20 losers and 3 breakevens out of 64 selections.
07:03am, 24-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5747 on ftse.
21:13pm, 23-06-11, left a limit fun order overnight. Good night, folks.
18:24pm, 23-06-11, came out at breakeven, so that is 30 pounds in profit, from 40 winners, 20 losers and 3 breakevens out of 63 selections.
13:05pm, 23-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5698 on ftse.
10:47am, 23-06-11, grabbed, very slow going, so that is 32 pounds in profit, from 40 winners, 20 losers and 2 breakevens out of 62 selections.
08:11am, 22-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5735 on ftse.
19:55pm, 22-06-11, grabbed 8 quid, so that is 4 pounds in profit, from 39 winners, 20 losers and 2 breakevens out of 61 selections.
12:24pm, 22-06-11, highlighted my fun short on euro near 14382.
11:14am, 22-06-11, banked 45 quid, so that is 3 quid in the red, from 38 winners, 20 losers and 2 breakevens out of 60 selections. Annoyed with yesterday's silly mistake there.
07:56am, 22-06-11, highlighted my fun short on euro near 14405.
05:00am, 22-06-11, lost that one, so that is 48 pounds in the red, from 37 winners, 20 losers and 2 breakevens out of 59 selections.
12:07pm, 21-06-11, highlighted my fun short near 5734 on ftse.
10:19am, 21-06-11, grabbed 20 quid, so that is 80 pounds in profit, from 37 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 58 selections.
09:34am, 21-06-11, highlighted my fun short near 5740 on ftse, for a quick scalp.
18:59pm, 20-06-11, grabbed 18 quid, so that is 60 pounds in profit, from 36winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 57 selections.
17:53pm, 20-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5705 on ftse.
11:21am, 20-06-11, grabbed 40 quid, missed another scalp there earlier on, never mind, opportunites are plenty, too many, that is the problem, so that is 42 quid in profit, from 35 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 56 selections. Nice to have a winning start.
07:47am, 20-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5659 on ftse just now.
10:31am, 19-06-11, happy Father's Day, folks. done all seven reports. You may check out the two reports on the companies, there is one on Standard Chartered Bank in the older blogs, which has been updated. Have a good day, folks. I am starting the week with £2 in profit on the fun bet series.
09:45am, 18-06-11, the usual weekly reflections again:
"Finally, a pleasure to reflect upon a week, where I turned around a 342 pounds deficit into a 2 pounds profit for the fun bet series. To be honest, so far, every fun bet series has suffered its ups and downs to the tune of about 250 pounds both in profit and in loss and then all end up in some profits. The challenge is that whether this particular series can beat the previous series in terms of profitability. So far, the best series is the 5th batch with 306 pounds profit. We are now onto fun bet no. 56, just a little over half way through, a lot is demanded for the coming two weeks.
The key to trading is to be flexible and disciplined. While the Mooriverwatch reports and daily regular updates provide the Satnav guidance, the trader must look at the traffic and road conditions to decide what to do. A Satnav guidance could point to a journey from Manchester to London, but it may not have told you in advance all roads around your home are blocked, until two hours later, then subject to massive diversions, etc etc. One has to be flexible and nimble and take whatever profit or loss as and when demanded by the market conditions, WITHOUT HESITATIONS! It takes a lot of determination to cut losses early without hesitations and it is a common folly to hold onto a profit for too long for it to turn into a loss. Trading demands both flexibility (in the mindset) and discipline (act immediately without hesitation as and when demanded by the market conditions). Always easily said than done.
But if you look at the losing fun bets, it is often because the trades were placed on a lofty ambition and then not being chopped without hesitation when the tides turned around. So sometimes, a fun bet will pick up just the few pointers, other times, it has to be chopped soon after it has been entered. And hopefully, there will be times that a fun bet can be held for 20-30 pointer or more in one go. Give the fact that FTSE normally moves 50 pointers half a day and 100 pointers the whole day, so it is more likely to go up and down most of the time. The best profit target is perhaps 20-30 pointer a go, any loftier targets might result in the tide turning around against the trade.
I am still puzzled by the emailing problem. MF has helped to pinpoint that this is a hotmail specific problem. The problem is whether it is my hotmail problem or a generic hotmail problem. I have tried various ways. I used fastmail and gmail, which do not have the problems at all. But I have tried a few hotmail accounts, they all exhibit the same problems. A red cross for the charts using internet explorer and being able to see the chart but not able to forward using Firefox. I am hoping some members will try their hotmail boxes and see if it is a same problem there. Either it is something to do with my laptop or it is generic hotmail problem. The problem is that there is no emailing way to reach Microsoft to make a formal complaint! I am still searching for the solution, while at the meantime, I will use Gmail instead.
While members should have had a good trading week, as reflected by our Flying Daytrader's positively highflying feedback, there is no hesitation for me to award our MF the Moostar of the week. The man has got both a beautiful and a caring soul! I am proud to get to know someone like him in our community. For every community that I get involved in, as long as I get to meet someone like our MF once in a while, it makes my life's journey so much worth the while. I am very grateful for the tremendous efforts and time you spent in helping me to deal with the emailing problem, MF. Well done, you are onto the Moostar podium again. Our SJ almost made it again onto the podium with his suggestion of a system restoration, shame it did not work out. Many thanks for that, too, SJ.
Now let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5820-5620 (actual: 5825-5643);
Dow: 12000-11500 (actual: 12118-11836);
Gold: $1540-$1487 (actual: $1542-$1511);
Euro/dollar: $1.4170 and $1.4520 (actual: $1.4074-$1.4498);
Nymex Crude: $99-$94.50 (actual: $99.95-$91.85);
United Utilities: 602-568 pence (actual: 608-590 pence);
Severn Trent: 1450-1360 pence (actual: 1461-1423 pence).
While my often alarmingly accurate weekly forecasts are perhaps the world's most ignored flashes of genius (lol) that satisfies my vanity in some way, it is the day to day trading that is going to prove the worth of this Club. For that, I am grateful to you for your patience and perseverance. It is getting closer as we can see the results of the batches of fun bet series. The aim is to deliver a minimum of £1000 profit per fun bet series on a regular basis. For that, there is some way to go yet.
Now I will go gazing into the moorivers and switch into that curious role of a Mooriverwatcher, pure concentration and full imaginations, an intellectual challenge that is second to no others.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
15:23pm, 17-06-11, took 30 quid, so that is 2 pounds in profit at last, from 34 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 55 selections. We started the week with 342 pounds in the red, so it is a turnaround. Now have a rest for this week.
13:56pm, 17-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5720 on ftse again.
13:31pm, 17-06-11, nicked 20 quid, so that is 28 quid in the red, from 33 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 54 selections.
13:18pm, 17-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5724 on ftse.
12:07pm, 17-06-11, grabbed the money, so that is 48 quid in the red, from 32 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 53 selections.
11:06am, 17-06-11, highlighted my fun long again 5676 on ftse.
10:43am, 17-06-11, grabbed 68 quid, so that is 120 quid in the red, from 31 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 52 selections.
10:05am, 17-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5650 on ftse.
09:33am, 17-06-11, bailing out, so lost 32 quid, 188 quid in the red, from 30 winners, 19 losers and 2 breakevens out of 51 selections.
07:20am, 17-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5666 on ftse.
21:03pm, 16-06-11, banked 34 quid, so that is 156 quid in the red, from 30 winners, 18 losers and 2 breakevens out of 50 selections.
19:56pm, 16-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5653 on ftse.
18:06pm, 16-06-11, grabbed 12 quid, not going anywhere fast, it seems, so that is 190 quid in the red, from 29 winners, 18 losers and 2 breakevens out of 49 selections.
15:16pm, 16-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5690 on ftse.
15:01pm, 16-06-11, banked 38 quid, so that is 202 quid in the red, from 28 winners, 18 losers and 2 breakevens out of 48 selections.
14:49pm, 16-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5780 on ftse.
14:04pm, 16-06-11, banked 32 quid, so that is 240 quid in the red, from 27 winners, 18 losers and 2 breakevens out of 47 selections.
13:31pm, 16-06-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5658.
13:02pm, 16-06-11, lost that long, so that is 272 quid in the red, from 26 winners, 18 losers and 2 breakevens out of 46 selections.
07:18am, 16-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5695 on ftse.
20:47pm, 15-06-11, come out breakeven, didn't fancy to sleep on that long, so that is 172 quid in the red, from 26 winners, 17 losers and 2 breakevens out of 45 selections.
19:33pm, 15-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5711 on ftse.
16:11pm, 15-06-11, lost 26 quid, so that is 172 quid in the red, from 26 winners, 17 losers and 1 breakeven out of 44 selections.
15:47pm, 15-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5761 on ftse.
14:42pm, 15-06-11, a humble pie for me for my dinner from our Flying Daytrader:
"Flying today....But not in the air lol - -making loads of dosh instead. Much better now that you seem to be concentrating on FTSE and not trying to cover too many things at the same time.
Keep up the good work
Chris."
14:06pm, 15-06-11, grabbed 64 quid, so that is 146 pounds in the red, from 26 winners, 16 losers and 1 breakeven out of 43 selections.
08:10am, 15-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5793 on ftse.
07:16am, 15-06-11, grabbed 44 quid, so that is 210 quid in the red, from 25winners, 16 losers and 1 breakeven out of 42 selections.
13:53pm, 14-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5813 on ftse.
08:52am, 14-06-11, grabbed 4 quid, the entry was a bit poor, so that is 254 quid in the red, from 24 winners, 16 losers and 1 breakeven out of 41 selections.
08:02am, 14-06-11, highlighted my fun short 5805 on ftse.
05:56am, 14-06-11, limit hit, so grabbed 48 quid on the ftse long overnight, that is 258 quid in the red, from 23 winners, 16 losers and 1 breakeven out of 40 selections.
19:35pm, 13-06-11, highlighted my fun long at 5766 on ftse.
18:10pm, 13-06-11, lost 34 quid, so that is 316 quid in the red, from 22 winners, 16 losers and 1 breakeven out of 39 selections.
16:57pm, 13-06-11, highlighted my fun long near 5765 on ftse.
12:34pm, 13-06-11, grabbed another 20 quid, so that is 282 quid in the red from 22 winners, 15 losers and 1 breakeven out of 38 selections
10:55am, 13-06-11, some comment on Ascent Resources:
"just had a nibble of this share
technically, looking oversold and ready to bounce, but yet no confirmation of a reversal from the sustained bear run so far
Weekly
Momentums: we are turning bullish here. Momentum is bending upwards, though in negativity; Stoch has just gone bullishly crossed under the FLOOOR! MACD and Directional Movement show decreasing bearishness and RSI is tilting upwards from the floor too!!!!!!!
Price chart: if you look at the weekly candles, there seems to be a reversal doji setup in place already, all we need to close this week strongly, once we are over 5.5p bollinger midline, we are well and truly recovering.
Daily
Momentums: we have gone sharply bullish. Momentum has had a W bottom and now into Wave 3 upwards, hopefully into positivity shortly; Stoch has had a W bottom and has risen smartly through the floor in a bullish crossing; MACD shows increasing bullishness and Directional Movement shows diminishing bearishness and RSI has had an odd W rise from the floooooor too.
Price chart: price has double bottomed, now seems to be ready to reverse. on the way down, we have left a good number of gaps to be refilled!
However, at this moment, any purchase is a gamble, as the reversal process is not yet confirmed technically. So I have taken my gamble and be warned of the penny risks as always and also the general markets are very weak and will be getting weaker over the next week or so!!!!
dyor
good luck all"
10:26am, 13-06-11, bought some Ascent Resources shares, this one seems to be bouncing upwards from a sustained fall for months.
09:46am, 13-06-11, highlighted my fun long 5773 on ftse.
08:41am, 13-06-11, grabbed 40 quid, so that is 302 quid in the red from 21 winners, 15 losers and 1 breakeven out of 37 selections.
08:15am, 13-06-11, highlighted my fun long at 5767 on ftse.
20:30pm, 12-06-11, doing a round of review of dividend bearing shares etc, e.g., water shares and others.
08:58am, 12-06-11, taken off the ftse report now, but the nymex crude report is available in the 2010 blog list, done all reports, now time to chill out.
09:42am, 11-06-11, if you click on the 2010 blogs on the left-hand side, you will be able to read my latest full ftse report, free of charge, with detailed speculations about daily movements next week! It is listed there, because the original first blog on ftse was started in 2010 and then get updated every week. Thanks for visiting my blog, time to join the Club at £20 a month!!!! as you can see from the records my weekly forecasts are probably the world's No.1 forecasts! have a nice weekend.
08:33am, 11-06-11, some weekly reflections as follows:
"Time to reflect upon a miserable week. What went wrong? Got sucked in by the oil beast and got punched twice and then got into some emotional trading on that last Dow long, at the lofty R3! What could have gone wrong have gone wrong. So it can only get better from here.
One thing that is very clear to me is that one has to focus a lot on momentums. If you look at prices, your imaginations go wild, like looking at the prize figures on lotteries. But when you look at momentums, that is when you realise the odds to win a lottery jackpot is almost one in billions.
Will be working hard to turn the fun bets around as that one is in deep red at the moment. I have eaten my humble pie and pulled the membership subscription fee back to £20 a month, almost permanently, until I can run fun bets at a minimum of £1000 profit per series for 12 months. Before then, while I think my mooriverwatch reports are highly valuable, but my trading views etc still desire a lot of improvement for consistency etc. However, for the record, I have always managed to turn it around within the 100 fun bets to end on a profit, so I have got some confidence there.
For this week, our SJ has shot to the podium of Moostar Trader of the week by his shorts on ftse, which he held until 5750. Few could better that record, particularly as I was changing to a bullish outlook on Friday morning. Very well done, SJ, I appreciate your contributions to the Club in terms of dividend and other information as well. Nobody has ever kept on the podium for weeks running to date, lol, so keep up the good trades and good luck. Must say there are some fine traders in this Club.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5890-5630 (actual: 5891-5738) (as often, I am speechless by the divergenced between the genius of the Mooriverwatcher and the follies of the mooriver trader!);
Dow: 11970-11730 (actual: 12184-11925);
Euro/$: $1.4770-$1.4500 (actual: $1.4696-$1.4323);
Gold: $1581-$1540 (actual: $1554-$1526);
FTSE 250: 11970-11730 (actual: 12038-11775) (that was my first study ever for our MS, pleased with that one);
Nymex Crude: $100.56-$83.00 (actual: $102.45-$97.74) (that was a bit of pain in terms of the underestimation);
Barclays: 260-285 pence (actual: 267-256 pence).
We will be trading FTSE only until I have turned the fun bets into profit.
Have a nice weekend, folks, my pain starts here, as a lot of soul searching and mooriver gazing are demanded of me now."
14:55pm, 10-06-11, lost the long, which was placed in the wrong frame of mind, a horrible week, so that is 342 quid in the red from 20 winners, 15 losers and 1 breakeven out of 36 selections.
17:49pm, 09-06-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 12170 just now.
16:39pm, 09-06-11, lost the oil short, so that is 222 quid in the red, from 20 winners, 14 losers and 1 breakeven out of 35 selections, having a bad run.
16:16pm, 09-06-11, bailing out of the ftse short, so that is 122 quid in the red, from 20 winners, 13 losers and 1 breakeven out of 36 selections, one running.
15:16pm, 09-06-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5847.
12:48pm, 09-06-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude 10140.
09:54am, 09-06-11, bailing out of the short, was in the wrong frame of mind last night, otherwise, could have booked some profit on this short, so that is 108 quid in the red, from 20 winners, 12 losers and 1 breakeven out of 34 selections.
20:01pm, 08-06-11, highlighted my fun short on dow 12072.
18:45pm, 08-06-11, grabbed 13 quid, so that is 100 quid in the red, from 20 winners, 11 losers and 1 breakeven out of 33 selections.
14:48pm, 08-06-11, highlighted my fun short on down 12067.
10:48am, 08-06-11, bailing out as today is the inventory news and OPEC news day, might be too volatile from here onwards, so that is 113 quid in the red, from 19 winners, 11 losers and 1 breakeven out of 32 selections.
08:23am, 08-06-11, highlighted my fun long on nymex crude 9852.
06:35am, 08-06-11, grabbed 8 quid, so that is 103 quid in the red, from 19 winners, 11 losers and 1 breakeven out of 31 selections.
08:07am, 07-06-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5854.
18:56pm, 06-06-11, set fun limit short order on ftse just now, see if it catches it.
18:48pm, 06-06-11, grabbed 20 quid, very poor entry indeed, so that is 112 pounds in the red, from 18 winners, 11 losers and 1 breakeven out of 30 selections
12:53pm, 06-06-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5850 just now.
09:12am, 06-06-11, grabbed 53 quid from the oil short, so that is 132 pounds in the red, from 17 winners, 11 losers and 1 breakeven out of 29 selections.
15:41pm, 05-06-11, doing a round of review of moopenny shares etc.
"on Xtract: this one might have some miles to go north yet;
on Workspace: if you are on it, maybe time to consider taking the money, seems to be ready to come down for a bit;
on Victoria: poor vicky has no sign of life at the mo;
on dollar basket: back to 23.6% fib pullback, if this is a bull run, then this is where bulls start to come out to play;
on $/yen: the Japanese are monitoring this more closely, though 80 is no longer the lifeline, it is 78.58, 23.6% fib!
on Solo Oil: seems to be squeezed between 1.5p and 2p, scalp in between or trade on a breakout from 2p;
on Sirius Min: might be worth a nibble on almost turning momentums;
on SAR: Stoch has turned positive, maybe time to consider a re-entry;
on San Leon: turning negative, avoid for now;
on Range Res: still positive on daily, though a bit weakness on 4hourly;
on Ortac: think it is a matter of when not whether that it may turn north from these levels;
etc etc
11:47am, 05-06-11, done all the seven reports, a defining week to come, it is the weekly close that we need to pay much attention to on the indices this week. Good luck all.
10:40am, 04-06-11, the usual Saturday confessions (reflections, lol):
"June has started with a bumpy ride so far.
While I focus on trading FTSE a lot of the time, there will be occasions that I will find better opportunities with something else, like the slicky oil for example.
Friday was an absolute bad-hair day. The short on ftse near the lowerbank was a classic error. Not sure what happened there and then, old habits die hard! And the system fault with hotmail cost the opportunity to
bank the money on the oil short. All in all, it just says Friday wasn't meant to be a winning day for me. So the fun bets series is in red at the moment. Need some good trades next week to turn things around.
There are two ultra-consistent traders in this Club, MS and Iaan. These guys trade day in day out very nimbly. Iaan is mainly focused on ftse while MS hunts money everywhere, as long as there is a profit. Our MG is still searching for the ultimate system that will beat the markets fair and square. Keep at it, buddy. Our Al. is getting into a good rhythm in daytrading, which is very nice. All in all, I am going to award our MS as Moostar of the week, as his return from holidays was a profitable one in trading. Congratulations and keep it up, buddy. (I know I owe you a report on ftse 250 this weekend).
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5980-5850 (actual: 6011-5802);
Dow: 12500-12100 (actual: 12599-12093);
Nymex Crude: $102.50-$82 (actual: $103.38-$98.13);
Gold: $1555-$1490 (actual: $1550-$1520);
Euro/dollar: $1.4350-$1.4050(actual: $1.4643-$1.4257);
BP: 450-470 pence (actual: 448-471 pence);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1560-1620 pence (actual: 1563-1642 pence).
What do you think? The man is a genius and also an idiot, not being able to make good money out of these forecasts.
I rest my case.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
21:15pm, 03-06-11, no joy with hotmail at all tonight, so will set up a backup facility at Gmail tomorrow. Good night.
20:33pm, 03-06-11, hotmail has been down, was going to book 60 quid on the oil short, but couldn't log in, now suffering, a bad hair day today on a non-farm payroll, a combination of human error and system fault ends the week on a very low.
18:03pm, 03-06-11, lost that one, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude near 10013 just now, so that is 185 pounds in the red, from 16 winners, 11 losers and 1 breakeven out of 29 selections, with the nymex short running.
13:47pm, 03-06-11, highlighted my fun short near 5810 on ftse.
12:23pm, 03-06-11, grabbed a massive quid profit, well, was expecting a scalp, but it didn't go nowhere, so that is 65 pounds in the red, from 16 winners, 10 losers and 1 breakeven out of 27 selections.
10:22am, 03-06-11, highlighted my fun short on euro/dollar 14496 just now.
06:41am, 03-06-11, grabbed 15 quid, so that is 66 quid in the red, from 15 winners, 10 losers and 1 breakeven out of 26 selections.
19:33pm, 02-06-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude 10050.
16:29pm, 02-06-11, finally grabbed 193 quid, so that is 81 quid in the red, from 14 winners, 10 losers and 1 breakeven out of 25 selections.
11:17am, 02-06-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude 10057 just now.
11:14am, 02-06-11, lost that one, so that is 274 pounds in the red from 13 winners, 10 losers and 1 breakeven out of 24 selections
08:19am, 02-06-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude near 9975 just now.
08:13am, 02-06-11, bailing out of the long, so that is 174 pounds in the red, from 13 winners, 9 losers and 1 breakeven out of 23 selections.
18:29pm, 01-06-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 12354 just now.
17:22pm, 01-06-11, grabbed 9 quid, so that is 118 pounds in the red, from 13 winners, 8 losers and 1 breakeven out of 22 selections.
14:39pm, 01-06-11, highlighted my fun short on euro/dollar near 14419 just now.
11:53am, 01-06-11, chopped that short, so that is 127 quid in the red, from 12 winners, 8 losers and 1 breakeven out of 21 selections.
20:35pm, 31-05-11, highlighted my fun short 12523 on dow.
19:33pm, 31-05-11, grabbed 50 quid, so that is 97 quid in the red, from 12 winners, 7 losers and 1 breakeven out of 20 selections.
19:10pm, 31-05-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude, 10300 just now.
17:13pm, 31-05-11, grabbed 20 quid, so that is 147 quid in the red, from 11 winners, 7 losers and 1 breakven out of 19 selections.
08:32am, 31-05-11, highlighted my fun short on euro/dollar 1.4399 just now.
08:30am, 31-05-11, lost 8 quid, so that is 167 quid in the red, from 10 winners, 7 losers and 1 breakven out of 18 selections.
07:06am, 31-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5980 on ftse.
06:19am, 31-05-11, the MMs took the vacuum to chop off bears, ours included, so that is 159 quid in the red, from 10 winners, 6 losers and 1 breakven out of 17 selections
20:13pm, 29-05-11, going through a review of moopenny shares etc.
"on Xtract: is this a lethal wave 2 or are the pennies leading the markets down?
on Workspace: finding support above 28p, this one seems to be useful;
on Victoria Oil and Gas: yoyoing between 4.3p and 7p, under 4.3p, will be very bearish!
on Ultrasis: either do or die, needing to break 1p firmly;
on dollar basket: I can count out five small waves there, so that might Wave 1 down or Wave A down, pending a bounce, amazing artificial dollar weakness to boost yankie economy;
on Tri-star: even in a general bear market, some pennies will be shining, but it seems oil and mining pennies are struggling the most, which seems to fit in my long-term speculations about the oil and gold;
on Thor Mining: onto its last lifeline on the Gfan, there is the fib last line in the sand near 1.6p;
on $/yen: it is fascinating to watch the 80 level here, could this be a historical year!
on Sirius Minerals: it has done 38% fib pullback, could go a bit further down, and capital was raised at 4.5p, but there is an attractive Rgap up there to be filled one day near 17p;
on Sareum Holding: interesting to note that they have all done at least 38% fib pullback, classic Wave 2, so either the bull project is a fantasy, or we are due for a mega bull run from here, which is a curiously interesting thought, which demands me to be alert to such a possibility!
on San Leon: this one is supposed to be worth 80p by some analysts, as it has a portfolio of assets, interesting to note that buyers poured in near 26p, now a pullback;
on Range Resources: momentums seem to be turning, ready for a biggish bounce from these levels, towards either a fib pullback, or a three peaks near 25p or further north;
etc etc etc"
12:22pm, 29-05-11, done all seven weekly reports, last night's football was too intoxicating, it was a brilliant game!
08:50am, 28-05-11, the usual weekend reflections as below:
"It is painful to reflect upon this past miserable week, as mistakes were made and repeated and then got stuck in the loop and only woke up from this vicious cycle late in the week. The purple run in May came to an end, for sure, sad but true.
What happened? I have always said that my best quality work is done over the weekend away from trading, i.e., my weekly studies. Somehow, I made two vital mistakes this week. One was to ignore the weekly studies altogether; another was to use the wrong three timeframes for trading, using daily instead of 4hourly and the rest is history, as they say.
Our Mr Consistent MS has come back from his holidays and he gave me a warning in the week, saying HK was bouncing off 22kish level, markets turning bullish. That was when I started to look at my weekly studies and thought what the heck had been going on there! doh. Thanks, MS. I am hoping our Traveling Daytrader and Flying Daytrader have both been busy in traveling and flying, thus avoiding a poor week. Our Freetime Daytrader GK is returning from Japan to action in the coming week. GK can also be called a Pivotal Daytrader, as he opens trades upon or off the pivots a lot of times with much success. Al. has had a reasonable week and Lady S. wouldn't be too happy with my daily calls on gold, a bit premature, that one was!
For every dark cloud, there is bound to be some silver lining. This week's Moostar goes to our Artistic Daytrader MF. Despite the ups and downs and all the greed and fear in the markets, our MF sits by the Moorivers and muses and draws his beautifully illuminating diamonds, gartleys and butterflies, etc, while keeping an eye on some key news for us too. Congratulations, MF, you are our Moostar of the week. The man has got a beautiful soul with lots of enlightening imaginations.
Now let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5980-5760 (actual: 5952-5789);
Dow: 12560-12280 (actual: 12485-12246);
Gold: 1525-1480 (1539-1504);
Nymex: 102.80-96.40 (actual: 101.90-96.38);
Euro/dollar: 1.4250-1.4050 (actual: 1.4324-1.3969);
BP: 445-465 (actual:451-465 );
Next: 2225-2070 (actual: 2273-2168).
Alas, you can now see the tormenting of my soul this week. Having seen the bearflags last weekend in my studies, I fell in love with the bigger picture and sold all the way up the bearflag, doh, that is eseentially one of the markets' oldest lessons, the higher it climbs, the bigger it falls, but you have to wait for the bearflag to come to its conclusion!
Have a nice weekend, folks."
19:22pm, 26-05-11, highlighted my fun short at 5910 on ftse.
16:07pm, 26-05-11, banked 48 quid, so that is 38 quid in the red, from 10 winners, 5 losers and 1 breakven out of 16 selections.
13:48pm, 26-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5893 on ftse.
09:33am, 26-05-11, grabbed 14 quid from the oil short overnight, so that is 86 pounds in red, from 9 winners, 5 loser and 1 breakeven out of 15 selections.
20:10pm, 25-05-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex 10125.
20:08pm, 25-05-11, lost that one, stuck in a vicious loop for a few days, so that is 100 quid in the red, from 8 winners, 5 loser and 1 breakeven out of 14 selections.
08:33am, 25-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5830 on ftse.
06:41am, 25-05-11, grabbed 86 quid, so that is 20 pounds in profit, from 8 winners, 4 loser and 1 breakeven out of 13 selections.
19:26pm, 24-05-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude near 9952.
19:23pm, 24-05-11, lost the full stop loss, so that is 66 pounds in red, from 7 winners, 4 loser and 1 breakeven out of 12 selections. It has gone pearshaped.
18:52pm, 24-05-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude near 9852.
16:05pm, 24-05-11, what a miserable day again, bailing out, so that is 34 pounds in profit, from 7 winners, 3 loser and 1 breakeven out of 11 selections.
07:07am, 24-05-11, highlighted my fun short 5847 on ftse.
05:56am, 24-05-11, been spiked out, so call it a breakeven one, so that is 52 pounds in profit, from 7 winners, 2 loser and 1 breakeven out of 10 selections.
21:49pm, 23-05-11, locked in earlier on for a ride overnight.
19:41pm, 23-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5854 on ftse.
19:15pm, 23-05-11, bailing out, so that is 52 pounds in profit, from 7 winners and 2 loser out of 9 selections.
07:03am, 23-05-11, highlighted my fun long on dow 12426 just now.
09:59am, 22-05-11, taken off the reports on Next and Euro/dollar now. Going through a quick review of moopenny shares etc.
"Angel Bio: formed a superhammer against 0.3p, now there is an AGM coming up!
Avacta: Rgap filled, now flattening out against 1.1p, some bullishness creeping into oversold momentums;
Bahamas petroleum: not holding up the lowerbank that firmly, though momentums are a bit oversold now;
Biome: the future is green, but the price is stuck;
Emed: the last unfilled Rgap at 9.2p, broken the whole Gfan, but momentums are creeping up;
ETC Corn: a break of the upperbank will be significant, some in the world are starving because of rising food prices;
ETC Wheat: Rgap down there near 230p, but last week was a buy against the Gfan line, it is all about food prices;
SUK2: 38's seems to be the floor, but need to break the bollinger midline to kick off a bull run;
Edenville: based against 1p for quite a few days, now momentums have turned sharply bullish;
Mr Bolton's Fidelity China Special Fund: China wobbles onto the last Gfan supportline, make or break time!
etc etc"
07:28am, 21-05-11, the usual weekly reflections to the Club members:
"It is a pleasure to reflect upon the past if that past contains some success, which was the case for the past week. I have finished the 6th series of fun bets with 162 pounds in profit, which lasted about two months
as usual. I have started the 7th series of fun bets with 90 pounds in profit from 8 selections after taking a full extra strong whack in one single loser. So all in all, it has been a winning week. And must say I am having
a winning May so far.
In terms of the daily studies, it seems to be going well. In terms of trading, managing trades is still very much needing improvement, as I hesitated to cut loss when I clearly realised that things had gone the wrong way. Cutting loss as quickly as possible seems to the way forward, maybe.
There are many contenders for the Moostar trader award this week. Lady S. banked some profits from her BP shares. Iaan is trading very nimbly with good profit. Our ultra consistent MS has finally gone on holidays to take a much deserved break. Our Raffles has been nipping at the markets when he has got some free time, aside from running his online studio. To be honest, there are others who have done well this week as well. But this week's Moostar
Trader Award goes to a clear winner in our Traveling Daytrader Si, who has had a great trading week when taking a much deserved break from his global traveling. Next week, he will be traveling again around the world, trading whenever his I-phone can be connected to the internet in the airports or anywhere in the world really. Like I said to our Flying Daytrader Chris, you can be a winner whatever you do with a bit of moo magic, haha. Well done, Si.,
you are our Moostar of the Week.
So in this Club, we have different types of daytraders, such as Flying Daytrader Chris, Traveling Daytrader Si, Leisure Daytrader Lady S, Artistic Daytrader MF, Supertrend Daytrader MG, Bombardier Daytrader MS (because he trades everything that has a profit potential), Ex-City Daytrader Raffles, IT-Guru Daytrader Al., Freetime Daytrader GK (working full time, won't call him Boss-looking-away Daytrader or Loo Daytrader, lol) and so on so forth. To be honest, I am grateful to have you folks for company as daytrading and making money alone is not fun enough, haha.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6050-5900 (actual: 6020-5845);
Dow: 12930-12270 (actual: 12643-12377);
Euro/dollar: $1.41117-$1.4425 (actual: $1.4048-$1.4346);
Gold: $1530-$1478 (actual: $1516-$1472);
Nymex Crude: $102.80-$96.60 (actual: $101.24-$95.03);
BP Plc: 442-485 pence (actual: 435-467 pence);
Sainsbury Plc: 360-371 pence (actual: 362-340 pence).
Well, quite a reasonable bunch of forecasts. Time for some breakfast and then do my weekly studies and reports.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
15:50pm, 20-05-11, grabbed 72 pounds, so that is 90 pounds in profit, from 7 winners and 1 loser out of 8 selections. think that is all for the week.
13:55pm, 20-05-11, highlighted my fun short 5974 on ftse.
12:13pm, 20-05-11, grabbed 16 quid, almost dejavu as of yesterday, so that is 18 pounds in profit, from 6 winners and 1 loser out of 7 selections.
20:17pm, 19-05-11, highlighted my fun short 5974 on ftse.
19:47pm, 19-05-11, grabbed 20 quid, so that is 2 pounds in profit from 5 winners and 1 loser out of 6 selections.
19:24pm, 19-05-11, highlighted my fun short 5979 on ftse.
16:08pm, 19-05-11, grabbed 28 quid, so that is 18 quid in the red, from 4 winners and 1 loser out of 5 selections.
15:41pm, 19-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5979 on ftse.
15:16pm, 19-05-11, grabbed 40 quid, so that is 46 quid in the red, from 3 winners and one loser from 4 selections.
14:02pm, 19-05-11. highlighted my fun short near 5996 on ftse.
14:00pm, 19-05-11, taken a full loss there, so that is 86 quid in the red, from 2 winners and 1 loser out of 3 selections.
18:23pm, 18-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5943 on ftse just now.
16:37pm, 18-05-11, grabbed 16 quid, as oil starts to buzz higher, so that is 2 winners out of 2 selections, 34 pounds in profit.
16:08pm, 18-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 5931 on ftse just now.
13:59pm, 18-05-11, grabbed 18 pounds for a first winner in the new series, so it is 1 winner out of 1 selection.
13:12pm, 18-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5893 on ftse.
20:57pm, 17-05-11, didn't time it right, bailing out, so that is 162 pounds in profit, from 100 selections, 31 losers, one breakeven and 68 winners. That completes this whole series and a new series of 100 fun bets will be started from tomorrow.
19:49pm, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex crude near 9693.
19:22pm, 17-05-11, nicked 8 quid as oil is still buzzing, wait a bit and see how it goes, so that is 178 pounds in profit, from 99 selections, 30 losers, one breakeven and 68 winners.
19:11pm, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun short 5880 on ftse.
17:03pm, 17-05-11, grabbed 22 quid, so that is 170 pounds in profit, from 98 selections, 30 losers, one breakeven and 67 winners.
16:47pm, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 12402.
14:16pm, 17-05-11, bailing out, won't trade until after 4:30pm, now, so that is 148 pounds in profit, from 97 selections, 30 losers, one breakeven and 66 winners.
14:03pm, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5892 on ftse, it is Dividend Tuesday.
13:30pm, 17-05-11, bailing out, so that is 164 pounds in profit, from 96 selections, 29 losers, one breakeven and 66 winners, it is not oozing down, which is disappointing.
12:43pm, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun short again at 5908 on ftse.
12:33pm, 17-05-11, grabbed 14 quid, as it is still dividend Tuesday, so that is 176 pounds in profit, from 95 selections, 28 losers, one breakeven and 66 winners.
12:18pm, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun short at 5916 on ftse.
10:36am, 17-05-11, grabbed 12 quid, slow going, so that is 162 pounds in profit, from 94 selections, 28 losers, one breakeven and 65 winners.
09:43am, 17-05-11, highlighted my fun long 5923 on ftse.
08:50am, 17-05-11, grabbed 46 quid, as inflation data is coming up, so that is 150 pounds in profit, from 93 selections, 28 losers, one breakeven and 64 winners.
08:41am, 17-05-11, locked in for a ride.
07:09am,17-06-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5891.
20:08pm, 16-05-11, banked 20 quid, so that is 104 pounds in profit, from 92 selections, 27 losers, one breakeven and 64 winners.
19:42pm, 16-05-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5885 just now.
14:51pm, 16-05-11, took a little hit on that long, so that is 84 pounds in profit, from 91 selections, 27 losers, one breakeven and 63 winners. Was in profit, but didn't manage it well, so not had a good start.
07:05am, 16-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5896 on ftse.
08:15am, 15-05-11, taken off the reports on euro and gold now, as need to go through a review of indices and things before doing the weekly reports on ftse and dow.
"across different time frames, on ASX200: it has fallen out of the triangle; could be a bearflag here; lower doji close pattern being shaped up, possibly confirming the bearflag; very bearish momentums all across the board.
on DAX: not completed the full crossing upwards to the upperbank yet; still bullishly going upwards and onwards, backed up by bullish momentums; showing signs of tired bulls, not bearish here; upstream moo river survived the Japanese disaster, momentums are turning bearish.
on Hangseng: possible rejection by the blue upperbank; last time was a doji, now this one is important, momentums are still bullish; price continues to be rejected by the bollinger upperband, some bearish intent creeping into momentums; a sustained bear run, backed by bearish momentums.
on Nikkei: flat meandering across in the downstream moo river, but surely this rebuilding process is a jab of fresh blood into an ailing system; bearish momentums, but price is meandering with an upward bias so far, pending another dive; superhammer lives, and momentums are hesitating, price might surprise on the upside; bearish momentums, bearflag forming on price, testing of superhammer lifeline is necessary, no conclusive pictures on indices, now I do the reports."
21:41pm, 13-05-11, some reflections upon the past week:
"Well, get the easier bit done first, as this week's forecasting on this divergence basis is going to be really hard, to be frank (also, perhaps as a caution).
The fun bet series has finally been turned around from almost 300 pounds in the red at its worst to 100 pounds in profit with ten selections left in the series. I am a bit annoyed by Google blog service which lost me two days' diary with no explanation at all. Anyway, think we have had a good week and I have enjoyed my playing oil with SOIL and LOIL, it certainly moves up and down!
I have received some very heart-warming feedback emails from you. MS had a great FTSE trade for 100 pointer. Our Al. banked 100 pointer while on holiday, now that is a bit of icing on the cake, I think. Our Flying Daytrader Chris has had a good week, collecting hundreds while flying high in the sky. Well, generally speaking, I think we have had a good start to May and a good week. On reflection, the daily forecasts have been spot on and some of the trades could have been managed better for more money. Otherwise, just hope to continue in this winning way for the coming weeks and months. I think I am going to award the weekly Moostar to both Chris and Al., as their successes just sound a bit special, one flying high and another on holiday. You can be a winner whatever you do with a bit of moo magic.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6100-5860 (actual: 6041-5880);
DOW: 12830-12120 (actual: 12781-12536);
Nymex Crude: $102.40 - $94.70 (actual: $104.59-$95.26);
Gold: $1480-$1550 (actual: $1478-$1527);
Euro/dollar: $1.4900-$1.4250 (actual: $1.4442-$1.4067);
Barclays Bank: 278-305 pence (actual: 271-283 pence);
BP: 460-496 pence (actual: 459-439 pence).
Fairly happy about the daily studies and forecasts particularly on oil and ftse this week.
Have a nice weekend, folks."
19:46pm, 13-05-11, a lovely feedback from a member who is a full-time flying instructor and 'part-time' daytrader:
"Hey Trigger
Thanks for last 2 days - I don't usually have much time to trade these days with the weather being so nice for flying, but I've been dipping in and out of FTSE based on your calls yesterday and today and I've done really well. Nice to get back after a days flying to find another couple of hundred in the pot.
C."
How lovely it is to conclude the week with this member's happy feedback.
18:49pm, 13-05-11, very annoyed that google has lost my 2 days' worth of diary. As far as I remembered, we are now on 90 selections with just over 100 quid in profit, from 26 losers, one breakeven and 63 winners. We shorted ftse twice today and banked some profits. So all in all, not a bad week, having turned around the fun bets series into profit finally. But I can't believe google just did that. No explanations at all, such a rude company.
15:13pm, 11-05-11, out of the short now, so that is 51 pounds in the red from 55 winners and 26 losers and one breakeven out of 82 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
09:06am, 10-05-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12685.
08:39am, 10-05-11, grabbed 26 quid, so that is 39 pounds in the red from 54 winners and 26 losers and one breakeven out of 81 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:29am, 10-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5970 on ftse.
18:20pm, 09-05-11, bailed out at a fiver loss, bored with the euro woe, so that is 65 pounds in the red from 53 winners and 26 losers and one breakeven out of 80 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
17:13pm, 09-05-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar near 14310 just now.
17:04pm, 09-05-11, lost 4 quid on that long, the entry was completely wrong, had to bail out in a rising market, shame, so that is 60 pounds in the red from 53 winners and 25 losers and one breakeven out of 79 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
09:49am, 09-05-11, highlighted my fun long at 5960 just now on ftse.
08:44am, 09-05-11, grabbed 50 quid, so that is 56 pounds in the red from 52 winners and 25 losers and one breakeven out of 78 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
07:12am, 09-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5950 on ftse.
13:37pm, 08-05-11, going through a moopenny share review:
"how would the pennies fare if the market will be going through a storm??? this is obviously a question on our mind, for us penny share lovers, lol
I think it all depends on the nature and the development stage of the companies, for some, it is less likely to have an impact and for others, it will be affected more dramatically
on Xtract: there is no cause for excitement here yet, it has been limping along for months, was going to check out the newsflow, but III is off the line, whatever happened there!
on Workspace: after the breakout, now hopefully needing to hold above 28p;
on VIX: bounced off historical low near 16, then some hesitation, a break of 20 will be a major breakthrough;
on VOG: it dived under all supports, then it bounced off sharply, now what? still needing to break 7p to make a case for sustainable development; watch out for our Lady S., nimbled footed, in near 4.5p and out near 6.5p, then alas, we wait for the breakout from 7p;
on Ultrasis: every kiss of the ema200 brings punishment, the first kiss 2 bear years; second kiss 3 bear years and now this kiss?
on US Dollar basket: higher doji close reversal pattern in place, strong finish on Friday and momentums have just gone bullish!
Tri-star: bottoming? lifeless though;
on Thor Mining: slipping down the drain, unfinishes bear business, first dot of bearishness on DM;
on STAN: bouncing off the fanline, 2 out of 5 indicating bullish intent!
on dollar/JPY: bouncing off the fanline, 3 out of 5 showing bullish intent;
on Sirius Minerals: reached the buying zone, no definitive reversal signal yet;
on SAR: seems to be nearing the end of this wave down;
on San Leon: superhammered down, now first signal of a reversal on stoch;
on Range Res: 16p lifeline and 23p ceiling, almost becoming interesting here;
on Solo oil: 1p is the lifeline on this one, there is an update coming up, I heard?
on PMK: surely time for a big bounce with all the bullish momentums;
on Ortac: must be a sign of things with all these pennies stuck in Wave 2 down;
on Nostra Terra: a rise to 2p might satisfy the bulls for this particular wave, looking similar to Solo before its rise to 2p?
etc etc"
11:17am, 08-05-11, done all seven reports, a defining week to come.
08:38am, 07-05-11, some reflection upon the past week:
"well, it was a reasonable start to May. Called a number of good trades, but didn't hold them to their full potentials. Reduced the fun bet series deficit to a great degree. Now it is a matter of keeping up the good trading and turn it into a profit with the remain 20 odd trades in the series.
the killing of Bin Laden was the spanner into the works at the beginning of the week, but after the week, we can safely conclude that it is still the best to trade on technical indicators, as everything will be and is incorporated into the markets.
to be honest, trading demands looking across the board at all the time, could do with two or three computer screens, but as it is, has to jam a few charts across the screen, it has not been easy to stare at them all day long. always insist on being greedy when there is a lot of fear and being fearful when there is a lot of greed. feeling better after this week, which is good.
I have come to the conclusion that our Iaan has been trading very well in recent weeks and he was spot on for every twist and turn of ftse, which is amazingly good, lol. So, Iaan, you are our Moostar of the week, just beating off the challenge of our consistent MS, who regularly hunts good profit in everything other than ftse, lol. And you also beat off a late challenge from Lady S., who had a swift turn of foot by getting in and out of suk2 and luk2 at a good profit, while baking all them yummy cakes for her kids. Congratulations, Iaan, keep up the good trading. On the other hand, I am a bit disappointed by our MG's lack of continuous efforts in developing his Supertrend Trading System. Well, it worked wonders for him for a while, then somehow it tailed off. Keep it up, MG, for every trading system, it has to go through failures before it gets to find the key to success. One indicator alone is often not enough and need to look across the time frames, to see the correlation between longer and shorter frames. I am sure you will make a success out of it in time.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
Dow: 13250-12800 (actual: 12923-12520);
FTSE 100: 6160-6020 (actual: 6139-5868);
BP: 460-488 pence (actual: 464-431 pence);
Centrica: 320-335 (actual: 311-329 pence);
Gold: $1580-$1510 (actual: $1575-$1463);
Nymex Crude: $115.30-$105.50 (actual: $114.83-$94.69);
Euro/dollar: $1.5050-$1.4650 (actual: $1.4940-$1.4310).
More or less captured the tops on commodities, forex and indices and indicated correctly a down week, but markets went into an overdrive.
Have a nice weekend."
20:09pm, 06-05-11, bailing out with a cost of 14 quid, so that is 106 pounds in the red from 51 winners and 25 losers and one breakeven out of 77 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
18:35pm, 06-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5920 on ftse.
15:37pm, 06-05-11, nipped 1 quid and coming out of it, so that is 92 pounds in the red from 51 winners and 24 losers and one breakeven out of 76selections from this batch of 100 selections.
14:51pm, 06-05-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar near 14510 just now.
10:48am, 06-05-11, grabbed 54 quid, as non-farm payroll is coming up, so that is 93 pounds in the red from 50 winners and 24 losers and one breakeven out of 75 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
09:10am, 06-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 5872 on ftse just now.
06:02am, 06-05-11, some comments on the state of the markets:
"for this Q2, the story is that of a pullback, whether it is a Wave 4 down, pending a Wave 5 up on everything or a Wave 1 down, pending a lethal bear market is the key question
given it is a US presidential year, normally, one would say it is more likely to be a Wave 4 down in Q2 and then recover and make new highs in Q3 and 4.
but that is the thing. it is never a foolproof strategy to wait for a Wave 5, as Wave 4 could easily develop into Wave 1 down for a new bear market
need to do some proper studies over the weekend
but at least this is a topping exercise for this Down wave in Q2 and this is going to last for a month or two, so there is time on our hand to suss out the real intentions of this market
so for now, the bigger story is the down move and the smaller and more immediate story is wether it is a more complicated topping exercise, for example, euro, would it be messing about between 15000 and 14200ish for a few weeks, before finally coming back down
ideally, for those who do not want to monitor the markets too closely (like those on holidays), it is a patient waiting game to load up shorts or suk2 or seu3 or soil or sbul near the topping highs and hold for this Q2 weakness, which is the bigger theme
a trending market is always best traded in that trending direction
Q2, bears are the safest option; bulls are scalpers (in and out)
then in June or July, we reassess."
19:40pm, 05-05-11, grabbed 40 quid, so that is 147 pounds in the red from 49 winners and 24 losers and one breakeven out of 74 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:35pm, 05-05-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5918.
08:10am, 05-05-11, grabbed 28 quid, so that is 187 pounds in the red from 48 winners and 24 losers and one breakeven out of 73 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
07:03am, 05-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 6008 on ftse.
19:42pm, 04-05-11, chopped that long, so that is 215 pounds in the red from 47 winners and 24 losers and one breakeven out of 72 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
14:47pm, 04-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 6010 on ftse just now.
14:44pm, 04-05-11, lost that one, so that is 203 pounds in the red from 47 winners and 23 losers and one breakeven out of 71selections from this batch of 100 selections.
10:34am, 04-05-11, highlighted my fun long near 6051 on ftse just now.
09:42am, 04-05-11, grabbed 80 quid, so that is 103 pounds in the red from 47 winners and 22 losers and one breakeven out of 70 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
20:12pm, 03-05-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 6030 just now.
10:33am, 03-05-11, grabbed 40 quid, so that is 183 pounds in the red from 46 winners and 22 losers and one breakeven out of 69 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:05am, 03-05-11, highlighted my fun short near 6100 on ftse just now.
20:01pm, 02-05-11, grabbed 32 quid, so that is 223 pounds in the red from 45 winners and 22 losers and one breakeven out of 68 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:42pm, 02-05-11, highlighted my fun short on euro/dollar near 14880 just now.
08:39am, 02-05-11, be out for a few quid, reassess the Bin Laden effect, so that is 255 pounds in the red from 44 winners and 22 losers and one breakeven out of 67 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
06:36am, 02-05-11, highlighted my fun short 6131 on ftse.
16:01pm, 01-05-11, going through a review of some moopenny shares and a few other things:
"on Solo oil: quite a few Rgaps down there, first one near 1.3p, still think this is Wave 1 up completed, so expected a fierce Wave 2 down then up again;
on Xtract Energy: seems to be consolidating and waiting for newsflow, bullishly poised, but no big buyers;
on Workspace: a significant breakout here, only for those who want exposure to the rising London property prices and the Olympic theme;
on VOG: 4.6p is the last lifeline, after that, the end!
on Ultrasis: higher doji close here, surely a reversal is on!
on dollar basket index: it has been a long time coming, but the signal is there that the abandoned dollar might stage a bear market rally in the not too distant future;
on tri-star: still drifting in Wave 2, pending a make or break news;
on Thor Mining: completed a five-wave up, now there doesn't seem to be any hurry here, limping down in Wave 2 as well;
on STAN: holding above ema200 and the red fanline, the lifeline for all bulls, double top or collapse?;
on Sirius Minerals: nearing buying zone, though no sign of an end to this Wave 2 down just yet;
on Sareum: momentums are turning slowly, not decisively yet, always interested in this story.
10:11am, 01-05-11, all seven reports done, now paint the town red!
07:17am, 01-05-11, doing the weekly reports, check out the gold report, which is one blog below this Diary.
11:19am, 30-04-11, some weekly reflections:
"I am very glad to see the back of April. Something has gone very wrong there in trading. The fun bet series has gone off the rail, now deeply in red. Need to get a few winners to recover into positivity. The new colour coding system is very good to the eye, but the mind sometimes refused to follow, like yesterday when our short went into a small profit in the morning. Still need to firm up the discipline there. Trading must be done without thinking or blinking. Trading should be an internalised discipline. It is still easily said than done, particularly in April. As they say, it can only get better from this low.
It has been very quiet this week, guess it was because it was a kids at home week with many of you busily engaged otherwise. From Tuesday onwards, it will be business as usual. Let's hope with a bit more concentration, trading can be improved.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and results:
FTSE 100: 6050-5840 (actual: 6112-6004);
Dow: 12630-12000 (actual: 12845-12443);
Tesco: 386-400 pence (actual: 396-407 pence);
BP: 468-455 pence (actual: 472-459 pence);
Nymex Crude: $117.10-$112 (actual: $114.17-$110.73);
Gold: $1520-$1480 (actual: $1570-$1493);
Euro/dollar: $1.4230-$1.4650 (actual: $1.4494-$1.4482).
Have a nice weekend."
20:33pm, 29-04-11, bailing out of the short, so that is 259 pounds in the red from 43 winners and 22 losers and one breakeven out of 66 selections from this batch of 100 selections. Having a bad run here.
15:07pm, 28-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 6073 on ftse just now.
11:59pm, 28-04-11, grabbed 36 quid, so that is 193 pounds in the red from 43 winners and 21 losers and one breakeven out of 65 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
12:33pm, 27-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 6082 on ftse just now.
12:30pm, 27-04-11, lost that short, so that is 229 pounds in the red from 42 winners and 21 losers and one breakeven out of 64 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:31am, 26-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 6025 on ftse.
07:25am, 26-04-11, grabbed 34 quid, so that is 109 pounds in the red from 42 winners and 20 losers and one breakeven out of 63 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
19:38pm, 25-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 6025 on ftse.
15:50pm, 25-04-11, grabbed 24 quid, as Europe is closed, so that is 143 pounds in the red from 41 winners and 20 losers and one breakeven out of 62 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
13:13pm, 25-04-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6031 just now.
14:26pm, 24-04-11, going through some moopenny shares:
"On Xtract Energy: seems to be bullishly intended, but under 5p, we have been stuck for many quarters now;
On Workspace Group: looking a bit more bearish than bullish, best avoided;
On VIX: no end to the bear run in sight, with Rgaps up there waiting to be filled one day!
On VOG: bulls hanging onto the lowerbank by a thin thread, a breakdown of 4.7p is curtains to all bulls;
on UZS: still have not real support, looks with bearish intentions;
on dollar basket: three black crows later, maybe a bounce is due soon, not turned around yet; showing the bullish intentions here loud and clear on another chart;
on Tri-star: a daily close below 0.9p could see it halve to follow the 3 peaks+1 domed house pattern, looking dodgy to me;
on Japanese yen and stock market: 80 is coming back to support the dollar, still some residue weakness left on the shorter frames, but in the main, the trend has far more bullish intentions, maybe time to look for some exposure to the Japanese stock market on Q2 weakness near 8300ish for a bull run towards 13000 in 2012;
on Sirius Minerals: almost completing Wave 4 down, could double up from this support zone to complete a Wave 5 top in July as per attached chart;
on Sareum: seems to have found solid support and that could possibly be the end of Wave 4 down, now Wave 5 up towards 5p, possibly;
on Range Res: double topped and more downside potential than upside at the moment;
on PMK: lifeless;
on Ortac Res: not filled the Rgap down there yet and not found rock bottom for support either.
on Nostra Terra: still bullishly poised for 1.3p, Wave 3 target;
11:53am, 23-04-11, some reflection on the past week:
"Seems to be having a terrible run at the moment and confidence is not skyrocketing either. Trading needs discipline and discipline needs to be internalised so that it becomes a habit, a winning habit. The mistakes made on Wednesday were very much avoidable as it went against my own analyses and forecasts. The first one was impulsive and the second one was emotional. Both were bad trades, perhaps two of the worst so far. These must be avoided. My fun bet series is now deeply in red by £167. This is a very low point in this series.
To get out of this bad patch, need to build up a winning run. Have adjusted the charts with more highlighting, so that it becomes more obvious to the brain which mode we are in, bear or bull. Still suffer from the occasional doubts about the eternal puzzle with regards to chicken and egg (which comes first?). I have decided it is the chicken that comes first, hence 4hourly time frame takes on more importance than 15m charts.
I started the week with learning from our MF a very interesting story, involving war, gypsies, fortunes, lotto wins, etc. And our MF matched 5 numbers on the Lotto, well, he is the only one I kow who have matched five numbers on the Lotto. My best effort was four number for £128 and I got them lucky numbers from the numbers on the wall in a Sunday service at a small church in a beautiful village.
I am going to award our Chris as Moostar of the Week for holding onto his gold bars from way down there till now. What a stubborn gold bull he has been and he is looking for $5000 and he informed me of this lofty target a year or two ago. Well done, Chris, flying high. If anyone wants to learn flying, let me know. I will get you into contacts with our Chris, who must be an excellent flying instructor too.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6066-5900( actual: 6063-5856, just shows seeing the future is very much different from cashing in that vision!);
Gold: $1505-$1375 (actual: $1509-$1478);
Euro/dollar: $1.4600-$1.4220 (actual: $1.4649-$1.4158);
Nymex Crude: $110.80-$102.50 ($112.47-$106.02);
SPX500: 1340-1302 (actual: 1341-1294);
BP: 438-474pence (actual: 449-471 pence);
Home Retail Group: 220-189 pence(actual: 226-209 pence).
If I were a pure MA, you would say these forecasts were alright. But trading has let me down badly recently. Need to turn it around.
Happy Holidays, folks."
11:37am, 22-04-11, done the two reports on BP and Tesco which are available now. Will do the rest of the reports tomorrow. Happy holidays, folks.
19:14pm, 21-04-11, out of the short now for a fiver, a bit bored with it, so that is 167 pounds in the red from 40 winners and 20 losers and one breakeven out of 61 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
12:59pm, 21-04-11, highlighted my fun short on gold (June) near 1507 just now.
08:25am, 21-04-11, lost a tenner on that short, bailing out, so that is 172 pounds in the red from 39 winners and 20 losers and one breakeven out of 60 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:14am, 21-04-11, highlighted my fun short on euro/dollar $1.4603 just now.
08:10am, 21-04-11, grabbed 50 quid from a ftse short from 6061 just now, so that is 162 pounds in the red from 39 winners and 19 losers and one breakeven out of 59 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
05:59am, 21-04-11, got chopped again, so that is 212 pounds in the red from 38 winners and 19 losers and one breakeven out of 58 selections from this batch of 100 selections. Need to turn things around soon.
09:51am, 20-04-11, got chopped in full, now highlighted my fun short again near 6001 on ftse, so that is 112 pounds in the red from 38 winners and 18 losers and one breakeven out of 57 selections from this batch of 100 selections
07:26am, 20-04-11, highlighted my fun short 5951 on ftse.
15:35pm, 19-04-11, nicked a few quid, so that is 12 pounds in the red from 38 winners and 17 losers and one breakeven out of 56 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
13:11pm, 19-04-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5909.
05:28am, 19-04-11, some comments on ftse:
"morning all
1. hefty dividend today, so be careful
2. Asia has been weak, but not collapsing
3. morning 50: 5830 and 5920 (yes, these are volatile times, so it will be a wider range morning);
4. daily range: 5830 till 5930, onto close to 6000 by tomorrow
5. no shorts today, until we get fairly close to 6000 either today or tomorrow, looking to buy near 5830ish
6. gap at 5870, pivot 5920, very wide pivots, R1 is 5830, between S1 and pivot is almost 100 pointer, that is where we will be this morning
DYOR
good luck all"
20:45pm, 18-04-11, grabbed a few quid, so that is 18 pounds in the red from 37 winners and 17 losers and one breakeven out of 55 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
19:49pm, 18-04-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12183 just now.
18:59pm, 18-04-11, bailing out, so that is 24 pounds in the red from 36 winners and 17 losers and one breakeven out of 54 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
14:36pm, 18-04-11, highlighted my fun long on dow 12160 just now.
14:07pm, 18-04-11, booked the money for now, so that is 20 pounds in the red from 36 winners and 16 losers and one breakeven out of 53 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
13:20pm, 18-04-11, bailed out again, highlighted my fun short near 5935 on ftse, so that is 62 pounds in the red from 35 winners and 16 losers and one breakeven out of 52 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
10:01am, 18-04-11, got stopped out at breakeven, went in again with my fun long near 5956 on ftse, so that is 18 pounds in the red from 35 winners and 15 losers and one breakeven out of 51 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:37am, 18-04-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5960.
08:22am, 18-04-11, bailing out of the stuck short, so that is 18 pounds in the red from 35 winners and 15 losers out of 50 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
21:30pm, 16-04-11, done the weekly review of some 30 moopenny shares (such as Sareum Holdings, Thor Mining, Range Resources, Avacta, etc) and done all seven weekly reports now, very curious Monday coming up. Have a nice weekend, folks.
07:50am, 16-04-11, some weekly reflections:
"The wheels came off the Moorivertrading Wagon this week. Half way through the fun bet series, things went badly wrong. Being not able to hold onto the winning oil and ftse shorts at the beginning of the week affected me in some hugely negative ways. Since then, it has all been chasing my own shadow, being aggressive when it should have been patience; being gutless when it demands more determination. It has been a bad hair week. And the fun bet series stands at £10 in profit with the short on ftse hugely under the water. It has to be started all over again from this half-way stage. It is funny how these setbacks kick in whenever the profits grow to over £200. If you look back at the previous series, it happened almost every time. But the trading goes on, as the moorivers never stop. The fight is on.
Our J has been sending me some nice analyses; our MF has been keeping me humoured with some nice work in the mooartish drawing department; our Raffles is still making lots of money and sending me increasingly more freebies for all to share, very generous of him; our MS had made some solid money this week, which is great. Surely, we can't let Raffles be on the podium again. So this week, I am going to award our Iaan the Moostar trader of the week, as he has been spot on all week, being patient when I was aggressive and being courageous when I went under the cover. Our Club does boast of having some great traders, much better than myself, haha. So, Iaan, well done, mate, you have done us proud by removing Raffles from the Podium this week and by the way, next week, Raffles is away on a Horse Show, which gives everyone else a free run for the Podium, haha.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6120-5970 (actual: 6071-5942);
Dow: 12560-12330 (actual: 12444-12163);
Nymex Crude: $119.20-$109.20 (actual:$113.31-$105.32);
Cable: $1.6300-$1.6600 (actual:$1.6227-$1.6426);
Gold: $1480-$1440 (actual:$1488-$1444);
BP: 486-450 pence (actual:479-453 pence);
Essar: 467-525 pence(actual: 447-482 pence).
Have a nice weekend."
06:58am, 15-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 5972 on ftse. some comments on ftse:
"1. gap at 5963; pivot 5979;
2. morning 50: 5990 and 5940; daily range 5990 and 5830".
17:56pm, 14-04-11, booked 34 pounds from that long, so that is 10 pounds in profit from 35 winners and 14 losers out of 49 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
10:43am, 14-04-11, highlighted my fun long near 5958 on ftse.
10:38am, 14-04-11, lost that one too on the readjusted entry for late risers, so that is 24 pounds in the red from 34 winners and 14 losers out of 48 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
06:02am, 14-04-11, highlighted my early bird fun long at 5996 on ftse.
17:00pm, 13-04-11, chopped that one, not with it today, so that is 76 pounds in profit from 34 winners and 13 losers out of 47 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:50pm, 13-04-11, highlighted my fun long near 6005 just now on ftse.
13:01pm, 13-04-11, got chopped, so that is 96 pounds in profit from 34 winners and 12 losers out of 46 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:07am, 13-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 5988 on ftse just now.
19:06pm, 12-04-11, got out for 6 quid, not had a good day, so that is 196 pounds in profit from 34 winners and 11 losers out of 45 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
15:30pm, 12-04-11, highlighted my fun long at 5975 on ftse.
14:53pm, 12-04-11, bailing out at a small loss, so that is 190 pounds in profit from 33 winners and 11 losers out of 44 selections from this batch of 100 selections
10:06am, 12-04-11, highlighted my fun long 5997 on ftse just now.
06:46am, 12-04-11, think there might be the daily ranges on ftse for the coming days:
"Tues range: 5990-6050; Wed 6000-6070; Thurs 6080-6040; Fri: 6090-5960", no panic, though we will be going down later on.
18:07pm, 11-04-11, grabbed 20 quid, it is only a teaser, Rgap filled from overnight, so that is 212 pounds in profit from 33 winners and 10 losers out of 43 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:33pm, 11-04-11, highlighted my fun short near 6054 on ftse just now.
07:34am, 11-04-11, grabbed 30 quid from the short, wasn't going as fast as I expected, so out now, that is 192 pounds in profit from 32 winners and 10 losers out of 42 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
06:50am, 11-04-11, highlighted my riskier fun short on nymex crude near 11296 just now.
20:23pm, 10-04-11, some interesting findings for the coming week, let's see whether we can make some money out of these studies and forecasts, targeting £300 profit on the fun bets. Good luck, everyone.
10:13am, 09-04-11, some weekly reflections below:
"What a week or a non-week! Expected a bullish week, but caught out by one sloppy decision due to a moment of greed while the market was going up to achieve the weekly top and only got out of it at the last minute on Friday. Doh. Slightly improved the fun bets from £122 to £162 profit and we are already 41 selections down in the 100. There are still some undisciplined moments before placing the orders and managing a trade which has gone wrong (hesitations etc). Should make it into a more routine and disciplined regime, in and out without too much fantasies of allusions. Easily said than done. More progress needed.
Well, let's chill out for the Grand National weekend. To be honest, it seems to be a more open race than any other years. So I have decided to add a fourth selection to the Mooriver Grand National Representatives, that of Or Noir de Somoza. Ideally, it should be two selections every year, but the later inclusion of Royal Rosa and the change of jockey on Or Noir de Somoza changed my mind there. Next year, will wait till Friday to nominate our Mooriver horses.
For this week, we have all learnt to start to use the awesome R gaps for daily trading. What can I say? Raffles, you have made it onto the Moostar Podium yet again!
Let's look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6060-5890 (actual: 6067-5986);
Dow: 12500-12290 (actual: 12459-12320);
Cable: $1.6100-$1.6370 (actual: $1.6092-$1.6428);
Nymex Crude: $110-$97.60 (actual: $113.21-$107.51);
Gold: $1430-$1400 (actual: $1475-$1428);
Marks & Spencer: 339-358 pence (actual: 339-367 pence);
BHP Billiton: 2511-2355 pence (actual: 2587-2493 pence).
Now, coming back to the Grand National, if it starts with O, then all I can think of is OTT, which means the rally on the crude oil (Black Gold) is over the top, or OWTT, way over the top, adding AF's What A Friend in there, lol.
Good luck to our Mooriver Grand National horses (Or Noir de Somoza, Royal Rosa, Arbor Supreme and What A Friend), may they enjoy a bold showing against the giant fences and go home safe and sound.
Have a nice weekend."
20:00pm, 08-04-11, finally got out of the ftse short for 2 quid profit, so that is 162 pounds in profit from 31 winners and 10 losers out of 41 selections from this batch of 100 selections. Had a terrible week.
06:43am, 08-04-2011, this year, three horses have been chosen to represent our Mooriverwatch Club in the Grand National: Royal Rosa at 66/1, What a friend at 10/1, and Arbor Supreme at 20/1, good luck all.
08:46am, 07-04-11, chopped that short on BHP, so that is 160 pounds in profit from 30 winners and 10 losers out of 41 selections with that short on ftse running from this batch of 100 selections.
10:15am, 06-04-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6025 again.
08:52am, 06-04-11, grabbed 32 quid from the ftse short, so that is 192 pounds in profit from 30 winners and 9 losers out of 40 selections with that short on BHP running from this batch of 100 selections.
07:53am, 6th April, 2011, highlighted my fun short 6027 on ftse just now.
11:43am, 5th April, 2011, highlighted my fun short on BHP Billiton shares at 2507 pence on June contract just now.
09:56am, 5th April, 2011, taken 38 quid from the ftse short, so that is 160 pounds in profit from 29 winners and 9 losers out of 38 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
18:23pm, 4th April, 2011, picked the second Mooriver Grand National Horse, Arbor Supreme, so we have two selections running for the Club for a bit of fun: What A Friend at 12/1 and Arbor Supreme at 20/1, think they are confirmed runners, if they opt out on the day, will name some replacements. Fingers crossed.
09:02am, 4th April, 2011, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6018 just now.
10:11am, 3rd April 2011, done all the seven weekly reports, what a lovely Mother's Day, blue sky, plenty of spring sunshine, enjoy!
10:23am, 2nd April 2011, some weekend reflections as follows:
Didn't have a good week. Pushed the fun bets profits to over 200 quid, then whack, another full stoploss on Friday, non-farm payroll day. And throughout the week, as we got closer to 6000, I was biased in a bearish mode, which was wrong. We should always look at the markets as they are, not what we want to see them as. That was the main problem this week. So we ended the week with the fun bets series at 122 pounds in profit, a step back from £148 profit last week, so a wasted week really.
I am really impressed with our star trader Raffles. Not only he turned bulls at the bottom of these markets and bought in big time and enjoyed a run for his money, his observations of these intra-day gaps are simply amazing! Our wide-stoploss system trader Iaan has had a good week. I thin our Supertrend trader MG is suffering from a setback at the moment. MS is still keeping things simple and straight forward and making good money. And our Lady S is still holding onto her shares for the bull run, well done, Lady S, call that woman's bargain hunting instinct, haha. Our Mooartist MF is still busy charting through the various company shares. And others are balancing work and trading, as we head into the end of the tax year. I must say we did not take full advantage of this TYE rally which was expected as one of the themes in my FTSE study at the beginning of the year. In fact, it happens every year, be it with or without earthquakes, tsunamis, nuclear disasters and wars.
I am going to award our Raffles as our Moostar of the week, as his gap spotting has been a great help to us all, and he did it for the benefit of us all while running his very busy internet business: http://www.berkeleystudio.co.uk/ Thanks, mate, congratulations.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5920-5670 (actual: 5878-6016);
Dow: 12238-11650 (actual: 12419-12171);
Cable: $1.6180-$1.5930 (actual: $1.6151-$1.5937);
gold: $1446-$1385(actual: $1440-$1410);
Nymex Crude: $107.06-$97.28 (actual: $102.71-$108.46);
Lloyds Bank: 59-62 pence (actual: 58.2-61.7 pence);
Centrica: 332-316 pence (actual: 334-318 pence).
It is very interesting to note that on the indices where I trade the most, I tend to swing quite a lot, from independence to a biased dependence. A mixed bag of forecasts.
Have a nice weekend.
20:21pm, 1st April 2011, grabbed 10 quid from the short, so that is 122 pounds in profit from 28 winners and 9 losers out of 37 selections from this batch of 100 selections. Not had a good day.
14:46pm, 1st April, 2011, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12360 just now.
14:42pm, 1st April, 2011, lost that short, so that is 112 pounds in profit from 27 winners and 9 losers out of 36 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:09am, 1st April 2011, got stopped out for 1 massive quid profit, shame, now highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5945 for a gap trade on this non-farm payroll day, so that is 212 pounds in profit from 27 winners and 8 losers out of 35 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
20:53pm, 31-03-11, locked in and see if there is a ride on it into tomorrow.
18:12pm, 31-03-11, highlighted my fun short on Dow near 12355 just now.
16:36pm, 31-03-11, grabbed 84 quid from the short, so that is 211 pounds in profit from 26 winners and 8 losers out of 34 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
14:46pm, 31-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5950 just now.
11:31am, 31-03-11, grabbed 44 pounds from the short, so that is 127 pounds in profit from 25 winners and 8 losers out of 33 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
18:27pm, 30-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5964 just now.
16:00pm, 30-03-11, grabbed 18 quid as yankies are erupting, so that is 83 pounds in profit from 24 winners and 8 losers out of 32 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
12:39pm, 30-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5961 just now.
12:33pm, 30-03-11, lost that fun short on dow, so that is 65 pounds in profit from 23 winners and 8 losers out of 31 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:18pm, 29-03-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12237.
14:50pm, 29-03-11, grabbed 18 quid, so that is 181 pounds in profit from 23 winners and 7 losers out of 30 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
14:37pm, 29-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 5891.
21:03pm, 28-03-11, grabbed 15 quid from the Dow short, so that is 163 pounds in profit from 22 winners and 7 losers out of 29 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
18:48pm, 28-03-11, every year, we will have a fun bet on the Grand National for a bit of fun. In 2009, I nominated Comply or die, which came Third; last year, we got on the winner Don't push it; and this year, I have decided to nominate What a friend as our Mooriver Grand National horse and close to the race, I will nominate one lucky number as a backup horse. Have fun and good luck, folks.
17:46pm, 26-03-11, done all seven reports now, time to relax and enjoy the weekend as the coming Monday is no ordinary Monday. Be happy, folks.
06:43am, 26-03-11, a warming feedback from a member:
"Hi Trigger,
A good weekly forecast on the FTSE thanks. it was a shame about Wednesday and it's comforting that experienced traders like you also have these bad brain days!
I stayed long Wendesday and Thursday, and i think the market has shrugged off Japan/Libya etc and will go on to new highs again. But then today i ignored my thoughts and decided to short. It's funny how our mentaility can change in an instant, and i forget my previous plans and it cost me. I've been making decent profits the last few weeks, but i always find i am well up by the end of Wednesday and then i give back a fair chunk on Thursday and Friday. Maybe i get complacent as i've banked a good number of points, and the overriding aim of trading like a machine, without emotion, disappears, and is replaced by "lets have a punt" type attitude. This the main flaw i need to eliminate from my trading. I did used to have a problem of becoming too emotional after a heavy loss and compounding it even further but i've well and truly managed to get rid of that demon now.
I think the focus on the FTSE is paying dividends now, and this is only the start, i'm sure it will get better and better through the year. Even 30 points a day, consistenly would be fabulous.
On another note i've sold MTV this week. I got a bit frustrated with a lack of progress and put my money elsewhere, into Encore Oil. I might buy back into MTV next Friday with the profits, LOL!
I'm enjoying the Moo club and the input from others as well as yourself of course. I wish i could offer more but i don;t get much time with working full time and having kids at home. Maybe one day in the future i will have more time.
Have a good weekend. Thanks again
G"
21:04pm, 25-03-11, some reflections upon the past week:
"One bad-hair Wednesday cost a fortune. The fun bet series was pushed over 300 pounds in profit, then bang, disaster hit, and got whacked fully twice in a day. Discipline is everything and keep the brain working as long as there is a trade placed in the ever-changing market. In the end, we ended with 148 pounds in profit, though with a Dow short stuck. To be honest, my brain never recovered fully from that shocking Wednesday. It was not that I didn't see it coming either, I just got stuck into a shallow Wave 4 and got punished by an extended Wave 5, which was well expected both in the weekly study and in my daily updates. Need to get it out of the system over the weekend.
On that Wednesday, our MG banked over 100 bull pointers. Hats are off and hands are up, well done, mate. You are our Moostar of the Week.
Let's make it short and sweet as I am almost ready for bed, tomorrow is a full mooriver gazing day with all the seven reports to be done. So let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE100: 5640-5900 (actual: 5730-5935);
SPX500: 1256-1345 (actual: 1283-1319);
Gold: $1413-$1455 (actual: $1420-$1448);
Nymex: $102-$113 (actual: $102.11-$106.67);
Cable: $1.6100-$1.6440 (actual: $1.6008-$1.6401);
BP: 470-432 pence (actual: 485-460 pence);
Barclays: 285-255 pence (actual: 284-295 pence).
Have a lovely weekend, folks."
12:39pm, 25-03-11, highlighted my fun short on dow 12206 just now.
10:39am, 25-03-11, grabbed 24 quid, so that is 148 pounds in profit from 21 winners and 7 losers out of 28 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
10:05am, 25-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5917 again.
08:31am, 25-03-11, grabbed 30 quid, so that is 124 pounds in profit from 20 winners and 7 losers out of 27 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
07:01am, 25-03-11, highlighted my fun short at 5916 on ftse just now.
21:47pm, 24-03-11, lost that one too, so that is 94 pounds in profit from 19 winners and 7 losers out of 26 selections from this batch of 100 selections. Have to start all over again. What a bad hair day.
15:18pm, 23-03-11, highlighted my fun short near 5870 just now on ftse again.
15:06pm, 23-03-11, lost that one, so that is 194 pounds in profit from 19 winners and 6 losers out of 25 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:58am, 23-03-11, highlighted my fun short near 5819 on ftse just now.
15:28pm, 23-03-11, grabbed 44 quid, so that is 316 pounds in profit from 19 winners and 5 losers out of 24 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
15:13pm, 23-03-11, locked for a run, hopefully the lock survives.
14:23pm, 23-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5748 just now.
11:36am, 23-03-11, grabbed 32 quid from the short, so that is 272 pounds in profit from 18 winners and 5 losers out of 23 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
11:08am, 23-03-11, highlighted my fun short near 5794 on ftse just now.
08:58am, 23-03-11, got stopped out for 8 quid, so that is 240 pounds in profit from 17 winners and 5 losers out of 22 selections from this batch of 100 selections. very hard going as a bull as well.
08:08am, 23-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5736 just now.
18:50pm, 22-03-11, got stopped out for 2 quid, so that is 232 pounds in profit from 16 winners and 5 losers out of 21 selections from this batch of 100 selections. very hard going as a bear.
17:29pm, 22-03-11, locked in and see if there is a ride on this short.
16:23pm, 22-03-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12035 just now.
15:29pm, 22-03-11, grabbed 13 quid, not going anywhere, so that is 230 pounds in profit from 15 winners and 5 losers out of 20 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
13:32pm, 22-03-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12033 just now.
10:36am, 22-03-11, grabbed a tenner profit, so that is 217 pounds in profit from 14 winners and 5 losers out of 19 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:58am, 22-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5800 just now.
16:55pm, 21-03-11, bailed out for a tenner loss, bored stiff, so that is 207 pounds in profit from 13 winners and 5 losers out of 18 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
07:21am, 21-03-2011, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5777 just now.
15:13pm, 19-03-11, done all my reports while the French warplanes raged a battle over Libya. May there be peace after this coming week. Have a nice weekend, folks.
09:53am, 19-03-11, some reflections on the past week:
"What a week. When fear is rampant, be brave. Shortly after I called the start of a possible Tax Year End rall, we got chopped in a quick minute by an EU official's piece of horseshit, I lost the courage to be a bull for the rest of the week, which was obviously highly bullish. Trading is not easy, you need good timing, patience, discipline and often a lion's heart to put up a fight when there is rampant fear. But we have improved the profit on my fun bet series from £55 last week to £217 this week, which is a comforting thought, as we have been trading under a lot of uncertainties this week.
Our J has kept me informed of some technical issues on SPX500 throughout the week, which was very good of him, out of a busy day job. Our Mooartist MF sent me various moocharts to keep me informed of how he looked at some shares and the markets, which was appreciated. Our Lady S. is keeping up spirits though she has been lying low in bed due to a bug. Bless her, it is the human spirit that makes us different from other species. Our MS made some excellent calls on Japanese Yen and MG is still tinkling with his Supatrend trading system. And so on so forth. It is a week that the world has been plunged to the brink of a major nuclear disaster, so I guess we all traded with some fear in the background. It has not been easy. Our Raffles made the plunge to buy big into the markets near the bottoms, a brave decision, which seems to stand out. So I am awarding our Raffles as our Moostar of the week. Well done, mate.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5900-5630 (actual: 5842-5498);
DOW: 11860-12340 (actual: 12040-11515);
Gold: $1400-$1438 (actual: $1381-$1431);
Nymex Crude: $97.50-$103.10 (actual: $96.23-$103.65);
Euro/dollar: $1.4090-$1.3830 (actual: $1.4184-$1.3856);
BP: 460-490 pence (actual: 470-431 pence);
Barclays: 288-310 pence (actual: 279-305 pence).
Have a nice weekend, folks."
16:13pm, 18-03-11, grabbed 4 quid, frustrating week, so that is 217 pounds in profit from 13 winners and 4 losers out of 17 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
11:37am, 18-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5723 just now.
10:20am, 18-03-11, nibbed 6 quid, was too early on this one, so sit on the sideline for now, that is 213 pounds in profit from 12 winners and 4 losers out of 16 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
06:19am, 18-03-11, highlighted my fun short near 5713 on ftse just now.
16:51pm, 17-03-11, got out for 2 quid, what a day, so that is 207 pounds in profit from 11 winners and 4 losers out of 15 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
13:06pm, 17-03-11, highlighted my fun short near 5682 on ftse 100 just now.
16:36pm, 16-03-11, temptation, grabbed 100 quid, so that is 205 pounds in profit from 10 winners and 4 losers out of 14 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:22pm, 16-03-11, locked in for the ride.
15:37pm, 16-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5647 just now, limit set for 5260 for a fat finger plunger overnight.
15:10pm, 16-03-11, all went wrong here, got out of the longs, so that is 105 pounds in profit from 9 winners and 4 losers out of 13 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
14:37pm, 16-03-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 11795 just now.
12:29pm, 16-03-11, highlighted my fun long on BP near 456p.
12:21pm, 16-03-11, got the entry wrong, so out for a few quid profit, so that is 217 pounds in profit from 9 winners and 2 losers out of 11 selections from this batch of 100 selections, a wasted morning of misadventure there, what a shame.
09:53am, 16-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5672 just now.
09:20am, 16-03-11, took a little loss before the job news, so that is 211 pounds in profit from 8 winners and 2 losers out of 10 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
08:15am, 16-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5692 just now.
19:27pm, 15-03-11, grabbed 76 quid, so that is 219 pounds in profit from 8 winners and 1 loser out of 9 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:52pm, 15-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5673 just now.
11:52am, 15-03-11, grabbed 15 quid from that long, so that is 143 pounds in profit from 7 winners and 1 loser out of 8 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
10:45am, 15-03-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 11718 with guaranteed stop loss, of course, in these uncertain times.
10:11am, 15-03-11, grabbed 66 quid from that long, when fear is rampant, brave bulls come out to play with guaranteed stop losses, so that is 128 pounds in profit from 6 winners and 1 loser out of 7 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
09:55am, 15-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5595 just now with guaranteed stop loss, dangerous world out there.
19:48pm, 14-03-11, grabbed 24 quid, so that is 62 pounds in profit from 5 winners and 1 loser out of 6 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
18:21pm, 14-02-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5784 just now.
17:58pm, 14-03-11, grabbed 13 quid, not going anywhere beyond S1, it seems, so that is 38 pounds in profit from 4 winners and 1 loser out of 5 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
15:41pm, 14-03-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 11920 just now.
12:52pm, 14-03-11, chopped that short, needing a fresh start, so that is 25 pounds in profit from 3 winners and 1 loser out of 4 selections from this batch of 100 selections.
16:29pm, 12-03-11, all seven weekly reports done, now chilling out for the weekend.
08:08am, 12-03-11, the weekly reflection is here:
"Well, it has been an interesting week. In terms of mooriver fun bets series, we started proper with the 4th batch of 100 fun bets. The 4th batch ended with 120 pounds in profit (from 8th Nov 2010 to 13th Jan 2011) and we have just finished the 5th batch with £306 in profit (from 13th Jan 2011 to 10th Mar). I am pleased with the progress so far and now look forward to consolidate and make further improvement.
However, on Friday, after the earthquake and tsunami, I made yet another schoolboy error, by trading contrary to my own bullish analysis in the morning, almost on a whim, on hearing the miserable news around the world, then got attached to that trade and didn't get out at the minimum cost as quickly as possible. Over time, we have seen how costly these mistakes can be, otherwise the fun bet series would have been far more profitable. It is my aim to reduce such errors in the coming days and weeks. Mistakes cost, either money or opportunities and more often both! Always trade what we see, not what we think or want to see. The Mooriver Trading System is a trading system based on technical analysis, so generally speaking, fundamental news need to be ignored as the tenet of technical trading is that all news are already or will be priced into the charts.
While our Raffles delivered his usual big bets in the first half of the week again and Lady S made 3 out of 3 successes in SUK2, I think I am going to award our MS Moostar of the week, as he stuck to his guns on Friday, being a bull to the end. Trading as a bull with all them negative news flying around takes a lot of guts and determination. So plenty of respect from me to our MS, well done, mate, I should have acted after your prompt messages.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE100: 6150-5950 (actual: 6044-5786);
SPX 500: 1345-1297 (actual: 1328-1284);
euro/dollar: $1.3920-$1.4350 (actual: $1.4036-$1.3752);
Nymex Crude: $103-$113 (actual: $106.95-$99.16);
Gold: $1455-$1410 (actual: $1445-$1403);
BP: 515-490 pence (actual: 504-466 pence);
Range Resources: 20-14 pence (actual: 24.2-18.6 pence).
I was expecting the bear run to kick off from a slightly higher level for two weeks, but it started earlier than expected.
Anyway, have a nice weekend, folks, and count ourselves lucky and very much blessed for living in this peaceful country with better weather to come."
22:12pm, 11-03-11, forgot to update, highlighted a fun short on ftse near 5800 this morning and now stuck. Was in the right frame of mind (bullish) this morning and the more I read abou the news, the more wrong I went. That was that.
08:26am, 11-03-11, grabbed a tenner on that long, a bit too early, so that is 55 pounds in profit from 3 winners out of this batch of 100 selections.
06:28am, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun long at 5812 on ftse 100.
20:43pm, 10-03-11, nicked 14 quid before going to bed, so that is 45 pounds in profit from two winners out of this batch of 100 selections.
20:02pm, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5833 on ftse 100.
15:53pm, 10-03-11, grabbed 31 quid from the long, that kicks off my new series of 100 fun bets.
15:32pm, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 12000 just now.
14:32pm, 10-03-11, banked 65 quid to close the series on a high, so that is 306 quid in profit, out of 66 winners and 28 losers and six breakevens from 100 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
12:07pm, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12130 just now.
12:03pm, 10-03-11, lost 32 quid on that one, was too risky with regards to BOE decision, so that is 241 quid in profit, out of 65 winners and 28 losers and six breakevens from 99 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
11:04am, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5884 on ftse just now.
09:36am, 10-03-11, out for a quid, the entry was too early, so that is 273 quid in profit, out of 65 winners and 27 losers and six breakevens from 98 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
07:39am, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 16163 on cable just now.
07:32am, 10-03-11, grabbed 12 quid, so that is 272 quid in profit, out of 64 winners and 27 losers and six breakevens from 97 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
07:21am, 10-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5886 just now on ftse.
21:02pm, 09-03-11, nicked 2 quid, now ready for some sleep, good night folks, so that is 260 quid in profit, out of 63 winners and 27 losers and six breakevens from 96 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
20:45pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my risky fun long on nymex near 10400 just now.
19:45pm, 09-03-11, grabbed another tenner, so that is 258 quid in profit, out of 62 winners and 27 losers and six breakevens from 95 selections in the new batch of 100 selections, that is all the scalping done for now. Time for a break.
19:37pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5935 on ftse.
19:29pm, 09-03-11, got out at breakend, so that is 248 quid in profit, out of 61 winners and 27 losers and six breakevens from 94 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
19:23pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long at 5943 on ftse.
19:04pm, 09-03-11, grabbed another tenner, so that is 248 quid in profit, out of 61 winners and 27 losers and five breakevens from 93 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
18:48pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5941 just now.
18:19pm, 09-03-11, grabbed another tenner, so that is 238 quid in profit, out of 60 winners and 27 losers and five breakevens from 92 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
18:09pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5937 on ftse.
15:23pm, 09-03-11, out for a tenner, seems to be lack of ooomph, so that is 228 quid in profit, out of 59 winners and 27 losers and five breakevens from 91 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
14:49pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5940 on ftse just now.
14:02pm, 09-03-11, bailing out, so that is 218 quid in profit, out of 58 winners and 27 losers and five breakevens from 90 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
13:53pm, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long 5953 just now on ftse.
13:22pm, 09-03-11, nicked two quid, now sit on the sideline, so that is 226 quid in profit, out of 58 winners and 26 losers and five breakevens from 89 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
11:53am, 09-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse again near 5963 just now.
11:45am, 09-03-11, grabbed a tenner, not an ideal entry, too early as well, so that is 224 quid in profit, out of 57 winners and 26 losers and five breakevens from 88 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:32am, 09-03-11, highlighted my early morning fun long on ftse near 5963 just now.
16:35pm, 08-03-11, nicked 46 quid, so that is 214 quid in profit, out of 56 winners and 26 losers and five breakevens from 87 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
16:17pm, 08-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5950 just now.
15:18pm, 08-03-11, picked 18 quid having seeing it diving to the limit, so that is 168 quid in profit, out of 55 winners and 26 losers and five breakevens from 86 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
13:37pm, 08-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5944 just now.
20:36pm, 07-03-11, grabbed 26 quid, so that is 150 quid in profit, out of 54 winners and 26 losers and five breakevens from 85 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
20:23pm, 07-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5946 just now, having another go.
18:43pm, 07-03-11, not feeling comfortable with it, so out now, that is 134 quid in profit, out of 53 winners and 26 losers and five breakevens from 84 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
18:35pm, 07-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5945 just now.
12:53pm, 07-03-11, grabbed 27 quid, so that is 138 quid in profit, out of 53 winners and 25 losers and five breakevens from 83 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
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12:20pm, 07-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6029 just now.
09:22am, 07-03-11, grabbed 64 quid from that long, so that is 111 quid in profit, out of 52 winners and 25 losers and five breakevens from 82 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:10am, 07-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5971 just now.
11:01am, 06-03-11, all done now (euro/dollar and FTSE 100), time to chill out.
20:40pm, 05-03-11, done five weekly reports (two companies, gold, nymex and SPX500) so far, probably finish off later on or tomorrow. Remember weekends are the best time to join the Club when you can study these reports and work out your trading plans.
11:30am, 05-03-11, some feedback from our Moostar GK:
"Trigger, really glad you are covering this [Range Resouces]. I've got a decent sum in
from 4p and still think it has a way to go. This could be a life
changer for me so updates appreciated.
Thanks for a great week my most succesful ever I think your Ftse
morning 50 s are working really well. I banked over 500 points mainly
on Ftse and the Dow last night.
For the last 2 fridays I've opened longs on crude with a guaranteed
stop at the closing bell and then sold Monday morning. Worked well so
far so tried again last night. It sort of brings the ethics of
investing to your mind though.
Have a good weekend."
10:18am, 05-03-11, some weekly reflections:
"What a week. Got lucky to escape from that wrong short on ftse on Friday, the non-farm payroll day, but that mistake cost the opportunity to place a good short for the bear run. But mistakes are never free and the fact that I knew it was the wrong short as soon as I placed it only made it worse. Still the fun bet series is now back in profit, after 81 selections. Only 19 selections to go, exciting times ahead!
Things are still clicking into places at the back of my brain, moo rivers, momentums, Fibs, Gann's, and so on. The jigsaw is not yet complete and David Beckham says it should take more than 3 lifetimes (3+), so it is a complicated one, for sure.
With the negative correlation between oil price and stock markets, things are going to become very interesting from here onwards, as oil has hit its own sweet point in this bull run, meaning going parabolic is required to contain some of the bull enthusiasm.
For this week, our Raffles made tens of thousands in one single trade again in the early part of the week and held onto his discipline and his profits, which is a great effort. When he bet big, I got nervous too, haha. When he comes out winners, I share the joy. Still, it is a normal good week for him as he mixes big trades with small ones, which is the key to a more sustainable success, while running his very busy and successful internet business: http://www.berkeleystudio.co.uk/acatalog/info.html
Our MG is on his way to find the secret of successful trading by focusing on the Supatrend indicator, which has given him some encouraging results this week. Our Lady S had two winners out of two SUK2, since returning from her holidays abroad. The holidays have given her that bit more patience now, it seems.
But for this week, I am going to award GK as Moostar of the week as he seems to be hitting some sweetspots in his trading, having established his own unique focuses in his part-time trading, while being engaged in a very busy full-time working life.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6033-5700 (actual: 6053-5862);
Dow: 12250-11900 (actual: 12304-11989);
Nymex: $105-$98 (actual: $105.16-$96.46);
Gold: $1400-$1435 (actual: $1404-$1440);
Eur/GBP: 86.50-85.00 (actual: 86.07-84.61);
BP: 515-460 pence (actual: 499-483 pence);
Barclays Bank: 317-286 pence (actual: 322-308 pence).
Quite a good bunch of forecasts, I think.
Have a nice weekend."
15:25pm, 04-03-11, the ftse short survived with extended stop loss and got out at breakeven, that was lucky on a non-farm payroll day, so that is 47 quid in profit, out of 51 winners and 25 losers and five breakevens from 81 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:12am, 04-03-11, some comments on ftse:
"1. daily range: 6050-5980
2. morning range: 5980-6035
3. pivot: 5993
4. gap: 6005
5. non-farm payroll at 1:30pm, big day, little market movements
6. now, the binaries
a. the close at 12 o'clock, will be somewhere near 6005, so the +0-30 and -0-30 will all be in play
b. around 9:45am, we may see the morning low then, might buy some up by 0-30 at 4:30pm, as the close at 4:30pm will be again near +0-30 and -0-30, very close affair
c. the 15pm close will be in the +0-30 zone, possible over 30 for a spike!
d. so the game: I may consider to buy -0-30 on morning spike; buy +0-30 on morning sickness
DYOR"
12:02pm, 03-03-11, highlighted my fun short near 5990 on ftse just now.
11:57am, 03-03-11, some members held it to the very top:
"great stuff trigger thanks, my limit at 5990 was hit. I am having a blinding week!
Out now, but hope for a pullback on dow open then same again.
Cheers"
10:09am, 03-03-11, grabbed 72 quid from the long, so that is 51 quid in profit, out of 51 winners and 25 losers and four breakevens from 80 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:51am, 03-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse 5925 with a limit for 5990.
08:33am, 03-03-11, chopped that short, so that is 21 quid in red, out of 50 winners and 25 losers and four breakevens from 79 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
10:53am, 02-03-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5888 just now.
16:22pm, 01-03-11, grabbed 12 quid, so that is 51 quid in profit, out of 50 winners and 24 losers and four breakevens from 78 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:42pm, 01-03-11, highlighted my fun long near 5936 on ftse just now.
13:06pm, 01-03-11, stopped out at breakeven, so that is 39 quid in profit, out of 49 winners and 24 losers and four breakevens from 77 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
12:51pm, 01-03-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5986.
09:28am, 01-03-11, grabbed 30 quid on a divdend day, happy with that, so that is 39 quid in profit, out of 49 winners and 24 losers and three breakevens from 76 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:50am, 01-03-11, highlighted my fun gap short on ftse near 6032.
16:20pm, 28-02-11, grabbed 34 quid from the short, so that is 9 quid in profit, out of 48 winners and 24 losers and three breakevens from 75 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:08pm, 28-02-11, highlighted my fun short near 6018 on ftse just now.
12:37pm, 28-02-11, grabbed 40 quid, so that is 25 quid in red, out of 47 winners and 24 losers and three breakevens from 74 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
11:30am, 28-02-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5977 just now.
08:05am, 28-02-11, out of the ftse short, so that is 65 quid in red, out of 47 winners and 24 losers and three breakevens from 74 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:10pm, 26-02-11, completed all seven reports, time to chill out.
08:08am, 26-02-11, some weekly reflections or confessions:
"Time to confess my sins. The crazy Crude got me this week. The fact that I got one of the pullbacks right was the killer, as it gave me a sense of a major upperhand against the most
volatile beast of all. I thought I had got it under my thumb. But to trade Crude, you really need to get your trading to almost perfection, as any premature moves cost you a lot of money. You
often could look at a profit lock of 100 pointer and felt very happy one moment and another moment later, your order has been stopped out already, as we have seen Crude rising almost 2000
pointer in a very short space of time. On that fateful spike onto the weekly summit, I was only 100 pointer out and one resistance too early (R1 rather than R2) and then lost heart after two quick
losses of full whacks in the morning. After that, I never recovered my emotional composure and the whole week ended up in red on the fun bets.
I am very proud to say that our MG has emerged as our new star trader this week, after he had spent a lot of time to tone up his trading system, mostly through share trading for a long period of time.
This is the thing. If spreadbetting is not working out for you, train yourself up with share trading, which at least gives you some breathing space. I will do that with Crude, using CRUD and SOIL, where I actually made some money this week. So MG, you are our Moostar of the week and I am very proud of your latest progress as you have made many good calls this week.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6120-6000 (actual: 6107-5857);
Dow: 12560-12300 (actual: 12394-11983);
Cable: $1.6370-$1.6040 (actual: $1.6274-$1.6031);
Nymex: $88.88-$95.30 (actual: $91.04-$103.39);
Gold: $1378-$1428 (actual: $1418-$1391);
BP: 513-486 pence (actual: 505-484 pence);
Workspace: 25-29 pence (actual: 25.4-24.1 pence).
Have a nice weekend."
15:18pm, 25-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 6002 just now.
15:15pm, 25-02-11, nipped two quid from the long, so that is 73 quid in red, out of 46 winners and 24 losers and three breakevens from 73 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:08pm, 25-02-11, highlighted my fun long 12129 on dow.
15:06pm, 25-02-11, lost 76 quid on that one, so that is 75 quid in red, out of 45 winners and 24 losers and three breakevens from 72 selections in the new batch of 100 selections
13:50pm, 25-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5970 just now.
11:29am, 25-02-11, booked 42 quid, so that is 1 quid in profit, out of 45 winners and 23 losers and three breakevens from 71 selections in the new batch of 100 selections, a good turn around having lost some mad money on Crude.
10:20am, 25-02-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5956.
09:46am, 25-02-11, grabbed 60 quid, so that is 41 quid in the red, out of 44 winners and 23 losers and three breakevens from 70 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
09:43am, 25-02-11, locked in for the ride north.
08:13am, 25-02-11, highlighted my fun long near 5922 on ftse just now.
21:16pm, 24-02-11, stopped out for a quid on the dow long, so that is 101 quid in the red, out of 43 winners and 23 losers and three breakevens from 69 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
20:10pm, 24-02-11, chopped the gold long, so that is 102 quid in the red, out of 43 winners and 22 losers and three breakevens from 67 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
19:32pm, 24-02-11, highlighted my fun long on dow 12045 just now.
15:16pm, 24-02-11, highlighted my fun long on gold at 1414 just now.
14:49pm, 24-02-11, grabbed 60 quid, so that is 32 quid in the red, out of 43 winners and 21 losers and three breakevens from 66 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
14:15pm, 24-02-11, locked in for a ride.
12:52pm, 24-02-11, highlighted my fun long near 5896 on ftse just now.
11:43am, 24-02-11, stopped out for a quid profit, so that is 92 quid in the red, out of 42 winners and 21 losers and three breakevens from 65 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
10:42am, 24-02-11, locked for a ride.
09:53am, 24-02-11, higlighted my fun long on dow near 12056 just now.
08:29am, 24-02-11, booked the money, so that is 93 quid in the red, out of 41 winners and 21 losers and three breakevens from 64 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:19am, 24-02-11, locked in for a ride.
08:06am, 24-02-11, highlighted my fun long at 5873 on ftse just now.
07:55am, 24-02-11, lost another one, no more trades there, so that is 143 quid in red out of 40 winners and 21 losers and three breakevens from 63 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
07:49am, 24-02-11, highlighted another fun short on nymex 10045.
07:45am, 24-02-11, lost that short, a bad start, 43 quid in red out of 40 winners and 20 losers and three breakevens from 63 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:56am, 24-02-11, highlighted my fun short on nymex 9927 just now.
15:42pm, 23-02-11, cut loose that long now, so that is 57 quid in profit out of 40 winners and 19 losers and three breakevens from 62 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:43am, 23-02-11, highlighted my fun long at 5960 on ftse just now.
21:13pm, 22-02-11, got out at a small loss, don't want to be chopped again in my sleep, so that is 125 quid in profit out of 40 winners and 18 losers and three breakevens from 61 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
18:33pm, 22-02-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 12220 just now.
12:50pm, 22-02-11, some comments on Nymex:
"1. we have broken the resistance of 93, which is very important
2. we may retest that zone to find whether there are any bulls defending that
3. if this is Wave 1, then its pullback could be as much as 87.34, 23.6% fib pullback
4. we need to fill in this gap till 9547 minimum
5. there is an M top against the upperbank, could this be the new upstream moo river?
6. we are licking the pivot near 9568 at the moment.
7. the eventual target seems to be 10032 R1;
8. so you decide:
a. do you avoid oil or trade it?
b. if you trade it, are you a bear or a bull or both?
c. for each stance, how are you going to trade it, spreadbet or etf?
good luck all
==============
Oil spikes as Libya crisis deepens. Crude futures soared in overnight trading, leading IEA chief economist Fatih Birol to raise the possibility the trade group might ask members to release some of their 1.6B barrels in oil reserves to keep a lid on prices. Crude futures are already up more than 9% from last week's close, and things could get worse if hostilities escalate in Libya - a trend that could easily stymie consumer spending and confound an already fragile recovery. "Given the pace at which events are unfolding it would be daft to rule out a spike to $140 or beyond," Capital Economics says. Threats from Gaddafi's son that the country's oil "will be burned" cannot be taken lightly; Libya accounts for almost 2% of global crude production.
=========
being a bear seems to be highly dangerous, lol, on spreadbetting, dangerous, needing guaranteed stop losses either way
better use ETFs without being spiked and pierced and plunged many times over by these cunning lot!"
10:00am, 22-02-11, grabbed 87 quid, so that is 137 quid in profit out of 40 winners and 17 losers and three breakevens from 60 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
09:33am, 22-02-11, locked in now for a ride.
09:00am, 22-02-11, highlighted my high risk fun short on nymex near 9797 just now.
07:59am, 22-02-11, grabbed 80 quid from that short, so that is 50 quid in profit out of 39 winners and 17 losers and three breakevens from 59 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
07:07am, 22-02-11, highlighted my high risk fun short on nymex 9787.
06:42am, 22-02-11, some comments on ftse:
"1. gap: 6015
2. big dividends
3. pivot: 6022
4. daily range: 6030-5900
5. recover from 4pm into tomorrow towards 6000
good luck all"
05:30am, 22-02-11, lost it, that is 30 quid in red out of 38 winners and 17 losers and three breakevens from 58 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
18:16pm, 21-02-11, highlighted my high-risk fun short on nymex near 9540 just now.
09:58am, 21-02-11, grabbed two quid from the short, was too early, so now wait for another reload, that is 70 quid in profit out of 38 winners and 16 losers and three breakevens from 57 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
07:32am, 21-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6072 just now.
16:11pm, 19-02-11, done all the seven reports, now chilling out, fairly straight forward it seems. Take care. BTW, weekends are the best time to join the Club so that you can study the seven reports and plan your trading week.
12:19pm, 19-02-11, doing the seven reports, some weekly reflections:
"It was a shocker on Monday. Next time, if the fun bets come from something which has not been studied in details over the weekend, raise your arms like the Egptians, lol. The fun bet series lost a lot of money that day and pushed it
into red, having seen the peak of 251 pounds profit only the week before! Fortunately, we came back to 68 pounds profits after a few more days of squandered opportunites. We really should have gone for that nymex long. I had my eyes on it for a long time. And in the morning of the big rise, I highlighted it, but never devoted my full attention to it. That has been my main problem, really!
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6120-5940 (actual: 6099-6022);
Dow: 12380-12180 (actual: 12399-12194);
Cable: $1.6080-$1.5800 (actual: $1.6263-$1.5982);
Gold: $1372-$1320 (actual: $1354-$1392);
Nymex: $86.66-$82 (actual: $90.97-$83.85);
BP: 482-456 pence (actual: 495-476 pence);
Ultrasis: 0.9-1.3 pence (actual: 1.0-0.8 pence).
Apart from the Dow forecast, it was a crap bunch of forecasts. Try harder.
Let's hope our Lady S is having a great time in the sunny weather while we are being chilled out by some Spring snow.
Have a nice weekend."
16:05pm, 18-02-11, got out of that ftse short, bored with it, so that is 68 quid in profit out of 37 winners and 16 losers and three breakevens from 56 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
13:17pm, 18-02-11, two ways of going down on ftse:
"1. 5980ish, licked and bouncing back sharply to finish near 6010, and recover on Monday and Tuesday towards 6100, and then down!
2. only testing 6020ish and close near 6050ish and Black Monday to 5860ish
which one do you prefer?"
06:59am, 18-02-11, some comments on ftse:
"1. gap at 6087
2. pivot near 6084
3. a break down of pivot will confirm the bearish intention
4. yankies are closed on Monday, likely to book their profits before the long holiday period with so much uncertainty going on
5. all eyes on crude
6. daily range: 6100-5980
good luck all"
16:49pm, 16-02-11, we could be at a major summit for indices:
"the way I see it is as follows on ftse 100:
1. step 1: to get to 5850ish by Friday (without the step 1, all shorts and skirts are off!)
2. if step 1 happens, then Step 2: back to 6020ish;
3. then crash to 5730ish en route to 5530ish final target for this particular pullback!
yes, it is coming at last!
good luck all"
12:39pm, 16-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6074 just now.
08:35am, 16-02-11, grabbed 40 quid from that ftse long, so that is 64 quid in profit out of 36 winners and 16 losers and three breakevens from 55 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:03am, 16-02-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 6047 just now.
19:03pm, 15-02-11, nicked a quid from the short, time to stay out for a bit, so that is 24 quid in profit out of 35 winners and 16 losers and three breakevens from 54 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
16:40pm, 15-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6032. By the way, Thor Mining looks very bullish to me.
15:32pm, 15-02-11, grabbed 42 quid from the ftse short, so that is 23 quid in profit out of 34 winners and 16 losers and three breakevens from 53 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:06am, 15-02-11, some comments on ftse 100:
1. pivot at 6064
2. gap at 6060
3. Barclays reports
4. CPI at 9:30am
5. no ftse dividend today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
6. morning range: 6070-6020ish
ready for a big down day
14:59pm, 14-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6047 just now, one last attempt on a bad hair day.
14:51pm, 14-02-11, lost that one too, not having a great day, so that is 19 quid in red out of 33 winners and 16 losers and three breakevens from 52 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
12:43pm, 14-02-11, highlighted my fun short on cable near 15991 just now.
12:22pm, 14-02-11, lost that one, got foxed by Asia, so that is 23 quid in profit, out of 33 winners and 15 losers and three breakevens from 51 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
07:13am, 14-02-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar near 13548 just now.
13:10pm, 12-02-11, all seven reports done (including cable and Nymex), now chill out.
10:26am, 12-02-11, done the reports on Ultrasis, BP and Dow and Gold, Nymex Crude, take a break now.
07:49am, 12-02-11, just done the weekly reports on FTSE100, have some breakfast now. It is availabe on the second page, as I used the older template to update the reports.
07:33am, 12-02-11, some weekly roundup comments about the past week:
"A huge week of disappointment. When the profit on my fun bet series grew to £251, I started to become more ambitious and wanted to have some bigger winners, like a few hundred pounds profit a go, which was why
I went for Nymex crude and got bitten badly. That trade went into profit and was not locked in as usual and ended up losing 100 pounds. That loss put an emotional spin on me which led to a FTSE short, which put
the whole series into red, because of the hefty dividend payment on Tuesday. What a bad hair day that Tuesday was, all because China raised its interest rates before their stock market opened for business and I lost
discipline!
Anyway, after that, some careful trading late, the fun series is now standing at 123 pounds in profit, which is a big relief after that disastrous Tuesday. Winning is about disciplined trading, winning is about piling up
small winners more regularly. It is more likely to pile up 50 pounds profit a go on a daily basis, so I will stick to just that for my fun series. I have done 50 fun bets so far, at least it shows a profit at the half-way.
Our MS has had a good week again and our SJ is keeping his cool and our MF is still using his artistic moo drawing to hunt out the winners and our Iaan is still having a laugh with good trades. Other members seem to be
busily occupied otherwise in a busy world. Our Lady S will be jetting off for a holiday abroad soon. Happy holidays, I am going to award our Lady S as our Moostar of the week, for her perseverance and patience with the moorivers. Well done, Lady S.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes for the past week:
FTSE 100: 6040-5800 (actual: 6104-5971);
Cable: $1.6200-$1.5750 (actual: $1.6185-$1.5964);
Euro/dollar: $1.3770-$1.3400 (actual: $1.3744-$1.3498);
Gold: $1365-$1325 (actual: $1369-$1344);
Nymex: $93.30-$79.70 (actual: $89.53-$85.11);
BP: 488-435 pence (actual: 485-472 pence);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1746-1590 pence (actual: 1711-1623 pence).
Missed a lot of opportunities on forex this week, which is a shame.
Have a nice weekend."
16:43pm, 11-02-11, nicked 10 pounds, that is it, ready for the weekend now, so that is 123 quid in profit, out of 33 winners and 14 losers and three breakevens from 50 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:59pm, 11-02-11, highlighted my fun short near 6059 on ftse just now.
10:42am, 11-02-11, grabbed 50 quid from the cable short, so that is 113 quid in profit, out of 32 winners and 14 losers and three breakevens from 49 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:10am, 11-02-11, highlighted my fun short on cable near 16046 just now.
07:15am, 11-02-11, grabbed 25 quid from the dow short, so that is 63 quid in profit, out of 31 winners and 14 losers and three breakevens from 48 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:56pm, 10-02-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 12205 just now.
12:56pm, 10-02-11, being stopped out at breakeven, so that is 38 quid in profit, out of 30 winners and 14 losers and three breakevens from 47 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
12:31pm, 10-02-11, highlighted my fun long near 6000 just now.
05:53am, 10-02-11, some observations on ftse100:
"morning all
it seems that we have gone horizontal here, between 6100 and 6000/5950 for now
1. daily pivot is near 6068, if we are kept under here, then a test of 6000ish is very much on the card;
2. BOE decision today at 12;
3. gap at 6052;
4. morning 50: 6070-6020/06
5. ABC under the pivot takes us to 6006;
6. if we break pivot to fill the upgap from yesterday at 6091, then the ABC move will take it down to 6025.
7. bears keep selling into spikes and rallies, bears; bulls wait near 6000 and 5950.
good luck all"
17:22pm, 09-02-11, grabbed 40 quid from the short, needed to take account of the dividend as well on yesterday's loser, so that is 38 quid in profit, out of 30 winners and 14 losers and two breakevens from 46 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
12:33pm, 09-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6071 just now.
06:06am, 09-02-11, lost that short too, so that is 31 quid in profit, out of 29 winners and 14 losers and two breakevens from 45 selections in the new batch of 100 selections. We will have to start from scratch having had one of the worst Tuesdays in recent times. Meandering today, meaning consolidation and scalping.
11:05am, 08-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 100 near 6036 just now.
11:01am, 08-02-11, lost 100 quid on that oil long, doh, as the Chinese raised their interest rate, so that is 151 quid in profit, out of 29 winners and 13 losers and two breakevens from 44 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:38am, 08-02-11, highlighted my fun long on nymex near 8743 just now.
06:13am, 08-02-11, morning, made some observations on UK Coal:
"daily charts:
momentums: Momentum has shaped up a W bottom; Stoch has just gone bullish on the floor; MACD shows waning bearishness; Directional Movement shows a sharp reappearance of bullishness; RSI has W'ed up as well;
price chart: after a prolonged period of bottom basing, we have started to make up waves. We are probably inside Wave 5 up for this particularly run, which could turn out to be Wave 1 up in a bigger picture. For this particular run, a target of 65-70 is doable! We have had a fib 62% pullback and survived on the support of ema200 and now we have pierced bollinger midline again, so it is likely that we will go up to achieve the targets.
good luck all"
19:33pm, 07-02-11, grabbed a massive tenner on that short, so that is 251 quid in profit, out of 29 winners and 12 losers and two breakevens from 43 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:33pm, 07-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse again near 6050 just now.
14:14pm, 07-02-11, grabbed 24 quid from the ftse short, so that is 241 quid in profit, out of 28 winners and 12 losers and two breakevens from 42 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
09:10am, 07-02-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6044 just now.
11:58am, 05-02-11, forced myself to get the ftse 100 report done, that is it for me, chilling out, the report on indices is the hardest of all.
11:33am, 05-02-11, done six reports so far including nymex and gold just now, but will be pondering over the indices report, which seems to be the most difficult of all.
08:40am, 05-01-11, done the reports on cable and euro/dollar and some roundup notes about the past week:
"Well, we have improved our fun bet profit from 111 pounds to 217 pounds this week, which is a pleasant sight. However, I must say this week has been poorly traded, as the potential there was massive all over the places, same again, we could have done much better.
For this week, I am going to award to our ultra-consistent MS as our moostar of the week. He longed Standard Chartered Bank all the way up and shorted cable all the way down from $1.6200 level to name the two of his winning trades. And to be honest, while our Raffles could hit the markets really hard when things go his way, our MS is the most consistent winning trader in the Club.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5950-5788 (actual: 6025-5814);
Dow: 11800-12020 (actual: 11760-12098);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1686-1496 pence (actual: 1718-1598 pence);
BP: 501-465 pence (actual: 496-475 pence);
Cable: $1.5950-$1.5660 (actual: $1.6278-$1.5822);
Nymex: $89-$91.75 (actual: $88.41-$92.84);
Gold: $1359-$1322 (actual: $1359-$1323).
well, apart from the spot-on forecast on gold and a good one on BP and perhaps dow, it seems to be a poor week for forecasts. Try harder for the coming week.
Have a nice weekend. "
21:03pm, 04-01-11, done the weekly mooriver watch reports on BP and Standard Chartered Bank, now chilling out. Have a nice weekend, folks, and remember, weekends are the best time to join the Club as you can study the seven reports at your leisure and plan your trading for next week. Take care.
16:02pm, 04-02-11, grabbed 30 quid from the ftse short, what a day, so that is
217 quid in profit, out of 27 winners and 12 losers and two breakevens from 41 selections in the new batch of 100 selections. Nice to end the week on over 200 quid profit for the series.
10:03am, 04-02-11, highlighted my fun short at 6010 on ftse just now.
09:36am, 04-02-11, got stopped out for 1 quid on the cable long, so that is 187 quid in profit, out of 26 winners and 12 losers and two breakevens from 41 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:06am, 04-02-11, took the knife to the ftse short, so that is 186 quid in profit, out of 26 winners and 12 losers and two breakevens from 41 selections with cable long running in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:08am, 04-02-11, highlighted my fun long on cable near 16139 just now.
15:01pm, 03-01-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5984.
12:05pm, 03-01-11, grabbed 44 pounds from the cable short, so that is 212 quid in profit, out of 26 winners and 11 losers and two breakevens from 39selections in the new batch of 100 selections. Need a fresh start with no orders.
09:32am, 03-02-11, highlighted my fun short on cable near 16260 just now.
08:51am, 03-01-11, bored with that losing dow short, so got that chopped, so that is 168 quid in profit, out of 25 winners and 11 losers and two breakevens from 38 selections in the new batch of 100 selections. Need a fresh start with no orders.
08:48am, 03-02-11, grabbed 20 quid from the fun short on cable, so that is 216 quid in profit, out of 25 winners and 10 losers and two breakevens from 38 selections with dow short in the red at the moment in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:02am, 03-02-11, highlighted my fun short on cable near 16225 just now.
13:01pm, 02-02-11, grabbed 28 quid from the cable short, the yankies are waking up, so that is 196 quid in profit, out of 24 winners and 10 losers and two breakevens from 37 selections with dow short in the red at the moment in the new batch of 100 selections.
11:01am, 02-02-11, highlighted my fun short on cable near 16216 just now.
09:32am, 02-02-11, nibbled two quid profit, not a good entry price, so that is 168 quid in profit, out of 23 winners and 10 losers and two breakevens from 36 selections with dow short in the red at the moment in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:15am, 02-02-11, that limit short on ftse kicked in at 6000 just now.
07:42, 02-02-11, highlighted a limit order on indices this morning, see if it catches the spike.
19:59pm, 01-02-11, bailed out of the cable short just now, so that is 166 quid in profit, out of 22 winners and 10 losers and two breakevens from 35 selections with dow short in the red at the moment in the new batch of 100 selections. Not having a good day.
16:17pm, 01-02-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 11978 just now.
11:17am, 01-02-11, highlighted my fun short on cable near 16113 just now. the fun short limit order on ftse was cancelled before it would have been hit perfectly.
08:40am, 01-02-11, placed another limit fun short order on ftse.
08:31am, 01-02-11, grabbed 50 quid from the ftse short, so that is 183 quid in profit, out of 22 winners and 9 losers and two breakevens from 33 selections in the new batch of 100 selections. A good start.
08:08am, 01-02-11, my limit fun short order on ftse caught it at 5918, so in play now. loading up suk2.
07:36am, 01-02-11, follow me on twitter, I am Mooriverwatcher there.
06:09am, 01-02-11, some comments on dow:
"I reckon dow will top between 11950-12000, somewhere there, and we might make a marginal high overnight tonight and start to fall tomorrow
but this whole week will be fairly stubborn on dow:
today: up;
tomorrow: down;
Thursday and Friday: up again
Monday next week: big black Monday!
but it is worth the while to build up a short in that zone and hold, as the big fall could come anytime, could be next Monday or tomorrow for real
but with non-farm payroll on Friday, guess this is never going to be the week, so a Black Monday is the most likely consequence, with Egpty probably going into further chaos over the weekend
now please bear this email in mind in terms of trading yankie indices
good luck all"
05:46am, 01-02-11, some comments on ftse:
"morning all
yesterday was the last day of January. there is a saying that if January is up, then the whole year is up and vice versa. so please bear that in mind.
our new toy is a fairly useful toy indeed, right on cue, around 4am, it clicked into a fall on indices, amazing. still need to work out how it is played, but at least, it gives us a bit more assistance in terms of timing, not 100% fool-proof, but it helps.
morning 50: 5870-5920, to fill that gap at 5863 and rise up;
BP is reporting today.
I will be looking to buy SUK2 and build up shorts near 5920ish as well.
no shorts on yankies, until spx hits 1300, maybe or at least after their opening
they might play the divergence game again today
once ftse has seen 5920-30, it might be depressed downwards, while yankies fulfil their tops etc
so if you are on yankies, please be patient
my focus today is to build up suk2 and shorts on ftse near 5920ish and hold on for the ride, like our Marty said, hold my nerves, lol
reckon 11amish is a good time to look at the markets and also yankie opening time
good luck all
Ps shame our limit short order missed it by a whisker."
20:13pm, 31-01-11, placed a limit short order on indices tonight and see if it catches it at 4am overnight.
19:04pm, 31-01-11, lost 34 quid on that short, got the timing wrong due to a bit of impatience, so that is 133 quid in profit, out of 21 winners and 9 losers and two breakevens from 32 selections in the new batch of 100 selections. A good start.
15:23pm, 31-01-11, highlighted my fun short at 15988 just now.
10:17am, 31-01-11, grabbed 56 pounds from that ftse long, a nice little ride there, so that is 167 quid in profit, out of 21 winners and 8 losers and two breakevens from 31 selections in the new batch of 100 selections. A good start.
09:03am, 31-01-11, my limit long on ftse was hit just now, so I am long.
06:53am, 31-01-11, remember today is the last day of the month, so think about that monthly candle on everything. updated on various instruments, now ready for some breakfast.
06:03am, 31-01-11, morning all, some comments on FTSE:
"morning all
the MMs had a good laugh by diving out all the stop losses on the longs overnight, well, that is absolutely free money for them, all they need to do was looking at the order books on various things and dived them out!!!!! hence why it is difficult to leave orders over the weekend, remember to get out of orders before Friday's close and do not trade in the last few hours on Friday so that you never get spiked out or dived out by the wicked MMs.
anyway, it should be a straight forward day, buy on dips and dives.
morning 50: 5881-5821 (well, the gap is at 5881, so extend it by 10 pointer)
after the opening spike, there will be a period of limping towards 5820's, where our limit order should be filled before 10am
then a steady rise onto 5920/30, today, there is a need for ftse to close near 5920/30 to make up a doji candle on the monthly chart!!!!
and a further small rise tomorrow towards 5950/60, then we come back down
so no bears for two days, until we have seen 5950 minimum, or if 5800 is broken firmly
good luck all"
We are placing a limit buy order on ftse to catch it on weakness.
19:25pm, 30-01-11, taken off the cable report now, ready to trade, folks. With the Egptian situation causing major concerns in the world, it is best to wait and see on Monday, see what the big boys want to do. Good luck.
10:28am, 29-01-11, done all seven reports on Standard Chartered Bank, BP, Dow, FTSE 100, Gold, Nymex and Cable. Going out for a lovely dinner tonight. Chill out, folks.
07:23am, 29-01-11, some weekly roundup notes for the Club:
"well, I have received very positive weekly feedback from you, which is very heart warming for me. Al has increased his pot by 40% so far, keep going, Al. J has done well with his pot. Raffles and MS have put into their usual weekly profit of a few thousands each; SJ has had a steadily successful week; Iaan has made some fab daily calls and traded them to good profits; just to mention a few here.
For this week, I am going to award our Marty as Moostar of the week, as he held his nerve and banked 2.5k on some Dow shorts on Friday alone. Held his nerve were the words I mused over, yes, I wish we held onto our fun short that 100 pointer longer, lol, based on my fairly spot-on forecasts.
So very well done, Marty, you are our Moostar of the week, congratulations.
Our fun bets had a good run this week despite a 100 quid hit on a ftse bet, by increasing from 7 quid to 111 pounds in profit. Well, 100 pounds is never good enough yet, same as a team leading 1:0, we need to put a safety buffer into the pot. We have had 30 bets in the new 100 so far, started on 13th January 2011.
Now let's have a look at my weekly forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6042-5850 (actual: 6005-5838);
SPX500: 1300-1270 (actual: 1303-1274);
Nymex: $91.60-$86.20 (actual: $89.72-$85.12);
Gold: $1360-$1320 (actual: $1354-$1308);
Cable: $1.6166-$1.5820 (actual: $1.6017-$1.5751);
BP: 510-480 pence (actual: 501-481 pence);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1716-1626 pence (actual: 1684-1620 pence).
No wonder we have had a good week, could have been a lot better judging from the above forecasts and outcome.
Have a nice weekend."
20:57pm, 28-01-11, done the two company reports on BP and Standard Chartered Bank, as the other markets need the weekly closes for the forecasts. Good night.
20:12pm, 28-01-11, got a bit greedy there, got stopped out for a quid, so that is 111 quid in profit, out of 20 winners and 8 losers and two breakevens from 30 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
19:01pm, 28-01-11, might be making a 123 reversal on dow. we might have pinched the dow bottom, lol, locked in for a ride north.
18:49pm, 28-01-11, highlighted my fun long on dow near 11823 just now.
15:25pm, 28-01-11, grabbed 50 quid from the dow short, happy days, so that is 110 quid in profit, out of 19 winners and 8 losers and two breakevens from 29 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
13:31pm, 28-01-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 11992 just now.
11:58am, 28-01-11, contrasting signals from the yankie indices and ftse, so which one leads and which one is the poodle???? interesting day! but difficult to trade.
10:53am, 28-01-11, lost 8 quid on that long, annoying, if I had gone long on anything else, it would have been a profit on crude, euro, even Dow. So that is 60 quid in profit, out of 18 winners and 8 losers and two breakevens from 28 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:39am, 28-01-11, highlighted my fun long near 5924 on ftse just now.
My logic for this long was as follows:
"1. gap unfilled, without it, we can't have a sustained bear run, which was my forecast from today onwards;
2. we are still waiting for yankie GDP and the gaps on the yankie indices are value bets for the yankies
3. Asia was steady and China closed up, well above 2700
4. oil is a bit bubbly
5. forex might be due for a pullback at least
6. morning 50 pointer almost done
7. we are testing last Gann's fanline coupled with S2
so a gamble was born"
07:02am, 28-01-11, grabbed 15 quid from the dow short, so that is 68 quid in profit, out of 18 winners and 7 losers and two breakevens from 27 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
05:58am, 28-01-11, locked that short.
19:50pm, 27-01-11, some comments on Dow:
"so that is what I think
daily range for Friday: 12020-11840
dive at GDP and bounce back around 3pm on consumer confidence
close the day at 11950
and next week, goes up to 12020/50 for a day or two
then either on Tuesday or Wednesday, we start our journey south towards 11150ish
how's that for you???? haha"
18:07pm, 27-01-11, highlighted my fun short at 11996 again, let's play the yoyo until tomorrow's yankie GDP.
16:41pm, 27-01-11, grabbed 14 quid at last from the Dow short, given up the ghost, have to wait for tomorrow's yankie GDP, so that is 53 quid in profit, out of 17 winners and 7 losers and two breakevens from 26 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
10:23am, 27-01-11, highlighted my fun short on dow near 11995 just now.
09:05am, 27-01-11, looks like the indices are ripe for a hangover now, cable and crude might confuse the bears though.
08:43am, 27-01-11, stopped out at breakeven, so that is 39 quid in profit, out of 16 winners and 7 losers and two breakevens from 25 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:29am, 27-01-11, locked in now.
08:07am, 27-01-11, highlighted my fun long near 5957 just now.
07:13am, 27-01-11, be more patient, bears, it looks like a bullish January altogether, so bulls enjoy a little ride there for now. That limit short order has now been taken off, pending further assessment.
18:41pm, 26-01-11, highlighted my fun limit short order at 6035 on ftse, see if it catches the FOMC spike!
17:10pm, 26-01-11, some members are having a good run:
"good call had a good day and you made two good call one yesterday and today I made £1500 on those two call.
Thanks
M"
16:12pm, 26-01-11, grabbed 30 quid and that is it for today as the FOMC is coming up, so that is 39 quid in profit, out of 16 winners and 7 losers and one breakeven from 24 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:23pm, 26-01-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 5996 again.
14:41pm, 26-01-11, grabbed 50 quid from the short, so that is 9 quid in profit, out of 15 winners and 7 losers and one breakeven from 23 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
12:50pm, 26-01-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse 100 near 5996 just now.
10:23am, 26-01-11, got out of the crude long at breakeven, not a good call, would have made money going long on anything else but crude, so that is 41 quid in the red, out of 14 winners and 7 losers and one breakeven from 22 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:16am, 26-01-11, some comments on ftse entitled "buy on dips and dives until 6006 at least, if not 6040ish":
"1. gap at 5918
2. pivot at 5936
3. key line in the sand is 5950, double top, a break there bring another 50 bull pointer
4. morning 50: maybe 5930 and 5980
5. I think we go up without covering the gap today, bouncing off the daily pivot near 5930 is my guess
good luck all"
15:32pm, 25-01-11, highlighted my long on nymex near 8677 just now.
11:39am, 25-01-11, it is a scalping range for cable and ftse, yoyoing until tomorrow.
11:30am, 25-01-11, grabbed 36 quid from that ftse long, so that is 41 quid in the red, out of 14 winners and 7 losers from 21 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
10:05am, 25-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5910 just now.
09:51am, 25-01-11, lost that one, so that is 77 quid in the red out of 13 winners and 7 losers from 20 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:03am, 25-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5957 just now. Cable is very weak today. Big day.
16:37pm, 24-01-11, banked 18 quid from that ftse short, as the yankies are still flying up like mad, so that is 23 quid in profit out of 13 winners and 6 losers from 19 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
16:12pm, 24-01-11, highlighted my fun short near 5955 on ftse just now, only scalps.
11:51am, 24-01-11, lost 4 quid on the ftse long, not too happy with that one either, will have a rethink, so that is 5 quid in profit out of 12 winners and 6 losers from 18 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
10:13am, 24-01-11, got stopped out for another quid on cable, annoying, so that is 9 quid in profit out of 12 winners and 5 losers from 18 selections with the fun long on ftse running in the new batch of 100 selections.
09:57am, 24-01-11, now locked in on the cable long for a ride, hopefully.
09:29am, 24-01-11, highlighted another fun long on cable near 15944 just now.
09:14am, 24-01-11, got stopped for a 1 quid profit, so that is 8 quid in profit out of 11 winners and 5 losers from 16 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
09:04am, 24-01-11, locked in the cable long now.
08:42am, 24-01-11, highlighted my fun long on cable near 15955 just now.
07:39am, 24-01-11, highlighted my fun long near 5908 just now.
05:53am, 24-01-11, morning all, some comments on SPX with a title "buy on dips and dives on indices until spx sees at least 1300":
"morning all
it seems that spx has a clear structure for a 12345 and we are in wave 5
1. a small possibility for a pullback to 1277 to do an ABC wave rather than 12345; if we see 1277, fab price to buy. this is a reserve scenario.
2. more likely, we are completing a Wave 5 to 1293ish by 12am today
a. to complete Wave 5 near 1293 by 12am today
b. to conduct an ABC wave after that
i. to come back from 1293 to 1283 (friday closing gap) or 1286, as wave A;
ii. to rise towards 1295 as Wave B by 4am Tuesday;
iii. to pullback towards 1288 by 11am Tuesday; as Wave C;
c. after the ABC wave, to rise up towards 1304 by 9am on Wednesday, serving as an extended Wave to the original 12345 wave structure started on Friday, then come back down or we reassess, more likely to come down.
Raffles, what do you reckon?????
good luck all
PS if you are focusing on indices, use SPX for reference, as its structure seems to be clearest so far. SJ, use spx for guidance on dow and ftse trading. good luck."
15:41pm, 23-01-11, taken off the reports now. The end of January, a fairly important week. Some say if January ends up, then the whole year will go up! We will see about that. Good luck all.
15:12pm, 22-01-11, done all the weekly reports on the seven instruments, including gold, cable, spx500, ftse 100, BP, Standard Chartered and Nymex. Now chilling out.
09:46am, 22-01-11, some weekly roundup:
"What a miserable week this has been!
Our fun bets were building up the steam towards 200 quid profit and then I made two fatal mistakes and it ended up with 7 quid in profit, back to square one!
My focus on euro meant that I took my mind off the indices and missed the biggest selloff there and on crude too, because Euro was going upwards, which somewhat foxed my mind a bit!
I think forex is there to confuse everyone, while crude and indices are more positively linked.
Yet another few lessons learnt. Please, my dear teacher, are there any more lessons there to be learnt before I can walk and then fly!
The Chinese market looks very dodgy to me and FTSE is directly linked to the Chinese story as of today's FT.com, since FTSE is very much heavily weighted in commodity shares. So never get confused with bullish yankies and bearish ftse, it is only because their components are different!
This week, our Raffles has made it big and made it good with a weekly profit about 16k, yes, £16,000, he betted big and won big, but at one time, he confessed he was in danger of losing 20k, wow, that is the naked truth about trading, where risk and return is linked at the hip! I looked at the trading records he emailed me and noticed he focused on trading spx500 only, there lies one of the eternal truth of trading, focus on your niche instrument (not instruments!)!
So very well done, Raffles, you are our moostar of the week for the second week in a row and keep a steady hand for next week, buddy, we all get carried away after big wins.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6040-5690 (actual: 6081-5862);
DAX: 7130-6920 (actual: 7172-7007);
Euro/dollar: $1.3250-$1.3860 (actual: $1.3244-$1.3626);
Gold: $1383-$1323 (actual: $1379-$1338);
Standard Chartered Bank: 1718-1650 pence (actual: 1739-1664 pence);
Barclays Bank: 330-293 pence (actual: 312-291 pence);
BP: 509-473 pence (actual: 515-492 pence).
Please, me Lord, don't punish me too much for seeing the future of the markets. If I can't trade rich myself, at least let me help my members to riches!
Have a nice weekend."
17:47pm, 21-01-11, got stopped out for a pointer profit, so that is 7 quid in profit out of 10 winners and 5 losers from 15 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
17:26pm, 21-01-11, locked in now for a ride.
16:50pm, 21-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5882 just now.
15:51pm, 21-01-11, got chopped on that euro short, which went terribly wrong, so that is 5 quid in profit out of 9 winners and 5 losers from 14 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
10:49am, 21-01-11, generally recovering, switched to the dark side on euro a bit earlier, now building up SEU3 to gradually short into euro from here onwards.
19:21pm, 20-01-11, highlighted my first fun short on euro/dollar near 13477 just now, yes, I have been a bull so far, but I think I have changed my stance now.
17:32pm, 20-01-11, grabbed 32 quid from the nymex long, at last a winner, so that is 105 quid in profit out of 9 winners and 4 losers from 13 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
16:30pm, highlighted my final fun trade for the day, long on nymex near 8945 just now.
16:18pm, 20-01-11, cut loss on the euro long, so that is 73 quid in profit out of 8 winners and 4 losers from 12 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
15:34pm, 20-01-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar, 13449.
12:52pm, 20-01-11, took a hit on the ftse long, so that is 85 quid in profit out of 8 winners and 3 losers from 11 selections in the new batch of 100 selections, got both orders wrong this morning, mistakes are never free.
09:03am, 20-01-11, out of the euro long for 3 quid, as I got the entry too early, some 50 pointer out, so that is 151 quid in profit out of 8 winners and 2 losers and one ftse long running from 11 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
08:36am, 20-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 5923 just now.
06:23am, 20-01-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar near 13475 just now.
10:48am, 19-01-11, grabbed 45 pounds from the cable short, now that is 148 quid in profit out of 7 winners and 2 losers from 9 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
09:14am, 19-01-11, locked in now, waiting for the unemployment news.
07:37am, 19-01-11, highlighted my fun short on cable 16030 just now.
06:43am, 19-01-11, grabbed 98 quid from last night's euro/dollar long, happy days, so that is 103 quid in profit out of 6 winners and 2 losers from 8 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
17:46pm, 18-01-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar near 13374 just now.
14:45pm, 18-01-11, got stopped out for 2 quid, so that is 5 quid in profit out of 5 winners and 2 losers from 7 selections in the new batch of 100 selections, not going very fast here.
13:10pm, 18-01-11, locked that short, see if there is a ride, either today or tomorrow.
09:03am, 18-01-11, highlighted a fun short on ftse 100 near 6053.
07:31am, 18-01-11, Tuesdays are normally for the bulls to buy on dips and dives, and euro/dollar looks likely trending higher from the double bottom near $1.3250ish.
19:10pm, 17-01-11, got stopped out on the swing short on cable for a quid profit, how aweful, need to work on the stop loss system on swing trades, it is such a shame, so that is 3 quid in profit out of 4 winners and 2 losers from 6 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
14:18pm, 17-01-11, grabbed a tenner on the short from Friday, the entry was very poor, so glad to come out a little winner, so that is 2 quid in profit out of 3 winners and 2 losers and one cable short still running from 6 selections in the new batch of 100 selections.
13:18pm, 17-01-11, nominated my fun swinging short on cable near $1.5925 just now, limit $1.5000.
06:25am, 17-01-11, Black Monday it is!
15:55pm, 15-01-11, all weekly reports done, did FTSE 100, gold and Standard Chartered just now. Chilling out. Have a nice weekend, folks.
11:45am, 15-01-11, done the weekly reports on Barclays, BP, Euro/dollar and Dax.
21:49pm, 14-01-11, some weekly roundup notes:
"Our Raffles surprised me with a long on spx500 at 1000 pounds a pointer, lol, and he has grabbed some good money this week. Well done, Raffles, you are our Moostar of the Week.
Still, it is not necessary to use big stakes per pointer to make good money. If you'd done this week's cable range at £1 a pointer, that is 300 quid profit already. The higher the stakes, the higher the risks and the more the tension on the trader. We will just speculate with stakes to our own individual means. Still, it is nice to have a trader like our Raffles in our Club.
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 6040-5920 (actual: 6057-5939);
Gold: $1407-$1370 (actual: $1393-$1355);
Cable: $1.5470-$1.5770 (actual: $1.5476-$1.5889);
SPX500: 1262-1281 (actual: 1262-1294);
Nymex: $88.50-$83.00 (actual: $88.14-$92.68);
BP: 516-466 pence (actual: 512-479 pence);
Ortac: 2.7-2.2 pence (actual: 2.5-2.2 pence).
To be honest, apart from the BP oil leak on Nymex, everything else was fairly decent and the daily forecasts were solid on ftse as well.
Just need to make more money out of these weekly studies.
Have a nice weekend."
15:22pm, 14-01-11, highlighted my fun short near 5994 on ftse just now.
14:32pm, 14-01-11, grabbed a tenner, still a bit jittery about the long side at the mo, so that is 8 quid in red out of 2 winner and 2 losers in the new batch of 100 selections.
13:09pm, 14-01-11, highlighted my fun long near 5961 just now.
12:09pm, 14-01-11, lost that tight stop loss risky play, so that is 18 quid in red out of 1 winner and 2 losers in the new batch of 100 selections.
11:47am, 14-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse at 5970.
09:32am, 14-01-11, grabbed 32 quid from the fun short on ftse, so that is 12 quid in profit out of 1 winner and 1 loser in the new batch of 100 selections.
06:20am, 14-01-11, keep shorting into rallies and spikes, though it is a scalp in the morning and a big run from 17/18pm on the yankies. Good luck all.
18:49pm, 13-01-11, highlighted my fun short at 6012 on ftse 100, think the downside may have kicked off with that 23.6% pullback this morning.
18:32pm, 13-01-11, cut that one loose as well, giving up on trading today, not getting it right, so that is -20 pounds in the new batch of 100 selections.
16:35pm, 13-01-11, highlighted another fun long at 6023 on ftse, we are breaking into new ground.
16:23pm, 13-01-11, cut loose that one for a small loss for now, not too happy with a broken triangle, so that is 120 pounds in the profit overall, from 64 winners and 32 losers and 4 breakevens out of 100 selections. That is that for the 4th batch of 100 selections.
15:22pm, 13-01-11, highlighted my fun long at 6016 on ftse.
12:09pm, 13-01-11, some comments on ftse:
"looks to be a two day rise towards 6120
today yoyoing between 6000 and 6060 to confuse both bulls and bears, but closed in strength near 5950ish and tomorrow, we shoot off in the 8-12am period and tank big time when the yankies come to play
so let's be patient, longs are preferred
good luck all"
11:21am, 13-01-11, used a too tight stop loss, lost that one, shame, so that is 128 pounds in the profit overall, from 64 winners and 31 losers and 4 breakevens out of 99 selections.
08:50am, 13-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse near 6028.
05:58am, 13-01-11, two possible scenarios on ftse 100:
"1. 6060 and 5990, a dive at 5990, only to bounce back to get to 6120ish tomorrow;
2. 6020-6120, dive at 6020 and then rise to 6120 today and later tank down to close in the weakness
well, to be honest, 6120 seems to be a must achieve target for ftse for January, so before we see that, there is no point of staring out for too much downside
bulls, maximum stop loss 5980-70, under there, the 6120 story does not stand up any more.
above 5970-80, buy on dips and dives for 6120
as for today, there is weakness on hourly across the instruments, but strength on 15m across the instruments as well, haha, so sell into early spikes, like 15800-20 on cable; 6060ish on ftse; oil could be very wild indeed, 9330-9280, look out for a short.
good luck all"
21:28pm, 12-01-11, amended the daily range forecasts on ftse, and announcing a bear festival tomorrow, be patient, bears, but the rewards will be handsome. Good night.
17:30pm, not fully committed, perhaps shouldn't have gone for that one, set us back 40 quid, so that is 168 pounds in the profit overall, from 64 winners and 30 losers and 4 breakevens out of 98 selections.
15:47pm, highlighten another fun short on ftse near 6037 just now.
14:21pm, got stopped out for a choc bar, so that is 208 pounds in the profit overall, from 64 winners and 29 losers and 4 breakevens out of 97 selections.
11:42am, 12-01-11, highlighted my fun long at 6030 just now on ftse.
11:19am, 12-01-11, grabbed 12 quid from that short, so that is 207 pounds in the profit overall, from 63 winners and 29 losers and 4 breakevens out of 96 selections
08:47am, 12-01-11, highlighted a fun short on ftse near 6042 just now.
08:24am, 12-01-11, grabbed 50 quid from that long, a quickfired winner for the morning, so that is 195 pounds in the profit overall, from 62 winners and 29 losers and 4 breakevens out of 95 selections
07:47am, 12-01-11, indices are turning up very bullish so far, with honkers leading the way overnight, China rebounded to close above 2800 key support and ftse has broken 6016 handle. highlighted a fun long on ftse near 6017 just now.
15:35pm, 11-01-11, cut that short, it was called at the wrong time on a wrong day, lost 8 quid, so that is 145 pounds in the profit overall, from 61 winners and 29 losers and 4 breakevens out of 94 selections
08:57am, 11-01-11, highlighted my fun short on ftse near 6013 just now.
06:25am, 11-01-11, what a special day with so many 11111's. Tuesdays are ftse dividend day, so normally it is better to find a theme of buying on dips and dives on some instruments. Markets are dangerously poised for a big move today, so be careful.
20:33pm, 10-01-11, grabbed 40 quid from the ftse long, so that is 153 pounds in the profit overall, from 61 winners and 28 losers and 4 breakevens out of 93 selections
12:40pm, 10-01-11, today's range from the weekly study was between 5940 and 6020, let's see how it goes, I have worked out all five day's ranges in advance, fingers crossed, so far so good.
09:22am, 10-01-11, highlighted my fun long on ftse at 5963 just now. it fits my weekly study very well, so have a go here. bought some Morrison's shares too.
18:38pm, 09-01-11, taken off the reports now, ready to trade, folks. Good luck.
11:48am, 9th January 2011, done all the reports, most have been or are published here, apart from FTSE 100 with detailed 5 daily movement forecasts, I will keep that within the Club. Have a nice read and a nice day.
08:46am, 08-01-11, some roundup on the past week:
"Our MS is still standing out this week with some excellent calls/trades, well done, MS. Our SJ is getting nimbler and he actually sent me an email about dividend on Tuesday before I made that 100 quid mistake. I wish I had woken up to his warning shot there and then. For that reason alone, I am awarding SJ our Moostar of the week. Well done, buddy, keep them alerts coming, haha.
Having suffered a full 100 quid loss on Tuesday due to the blood rush post holidays and lots of hesitations, we made a recovery on the fun bets to end with 113 quid in profit through some hectic trading. The result is ok, but I am not happy with them at all. Let's see how well we can do the final 8 fun bets in this series with the focus on ftse 100 only!
Let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes:
FTSE 100: 5890-6066 (actual: 5944-6091);
Dow: 11830-11580 (actual: 11760-11598);
US Light Crude: $95.70-$90.80 (actual: $92.57-$87.26);
Gold: $1445-$1419 (actual: $1424-$1353);
BP: 468-500 pence (actual: 484-512 pence);
Motive Television: 0.7-1.7 pence (actual: 0.8-1 pence);
Euro/dollar: $1.3860-$1.3330 (actual: $1.3433-$1.2906).
Not too bad, to be honest, as this is the first week in 2011.
Have a nice weekend."
Will be working on the various weekly reports now.
10:35am, 07-01-11, some comments on Nymex crude:
"think the range is between 8922ish already seen and 8588ish
bears: look to build a short in 8900's on guaranteed stop loss and hold for the 300 bear pointer through the job data, wow, that is highly risky, hence the guranteed stop loss!
bulls: look to buy towards the close, near 8600ish
good luck all"
some comments on Dow:
"at evens odds on a non-farm payroll day, it is better to switch off and wait after the job data
1. if a down day towards 11580ish, then a bullish week next week to finish the job! this is my preferred scenario;
2. if an up day, say a rise to 11850ish, then Black Monday and the big falls start next week.
I prefer the first one, but I won't short it now, as nothing will happen until the job data, by then it is too late. the odds is not favourable either, I prefer to short oil, which gives me the odds of 6/1, not too bad, lol, still a gamble!
be patient and log off now.
be back after the job data
take care"
10:05am, 07-01-11, disastrous morning, picked the wrong instrument and wrong horse to trade, so took a loss of a tenner on the Euro long, so wrong, bored stiff as well, I am going for a walk, so that is 113 pounds in the profit overall, from 60 winners and 28 losers and 4 breakevens out of 92 selections.
07:00am, 07-01-11, further comments on trading today:
"indices
while I saw a good drop today to close in the weakness, but the story has a few things thrown in there:
on this ftse chart:
1. it is an upstream moo river, so bulls should in theory defend 6000ish lowerbank now, and the opening gap is at 6020;
2. within this upstream moo river, the counting of waves could be a bit of a bother. If you counted fives waves up till yesterday's top, then we had Wave A down, we are now in this pullback Wave B and finally a dramatic Wave C down as I depicted last night towards 5970/50 zone; but if you have counted only 1234, then we are in this Wave 5 up, aiming for double top near 6090ish (a failed wave 5) or 6133, fib 161% target. with currencies rebelling against the mighty dollar, this theory can stand up too
3. so let's play forex for now and see how far they can go till 10am/11am, then reassess our options!
good luck all
Ps ignore oil and gold for now, focus!"
06:41am, 07-01-11, highlighted my fun long on euro/dollar just now and some commentary on forex, entitled Currency Warfare:
"the euro woe is continuing and it has kicked off a week before my original thinking, which is a bit annoying
but today, I am looking for a big bounce on both euro and cable for 200 pointers each
euro 12970-13180
cable 15420-15620
more aggressive traders can buy now
more conservative ones can wait to buy euro above 13000 and cable above 15450
still a lot of bull pointers left in there
======
the real kick off is in the 8th hour
so more conservative players could wait
either for euro to break 13000 and cable 15450 for you or wait for the end of 7th hour to reassess to see whether it fits your criteria.
============
descending wedge broken bullishly on cable, let's focus on forex for the early morning session and then switch to have a look at indices and then oil much later
good luck all"
21:49pm, 06-01-11, will be playing cable first early morning, then indices mid morning and nymex crude in the afternoon tomorrow. Non-farm payroll day. Good night.
19:00pm, 06-01-11, grabbed 6 quid, called it too early at the end of Wave B, not Wave C, so come out and have a breather, that is 123 pounds in the profit overall, from 60 winners and 27 losers and 4 breakevens out of 91 selections.
18:26pm, 06-01-11, highlighted a fun long on cable near $1.5476.
16:43pm, 06-01-11, worked out tomorrow's trading plan on ftse, now time to chill out.
14:03pm, 06-01-11, got out at breakeven, count myself lucky for not suffering from a bad mistake, all the instruments must be traded individually, I looked across cable and drew a bad conclusion without looking at the technicals of ftse at all, what a mistake, so that is still 117 pounds in the profit overall, from 59 winners and 27 losers and 4 breakevens out of 90 selections.
11:26am, 06-01-11, wasn't a good call, so changed limit to 6040 for a double bottom against this morning low.
09:33am, 06-01-11, highlighted a fun short on ftse, set limit for 6025.
08:48am, 06-01-11, grabbed 17 quid, found it hard going againg 15550ish, so that is 117 pounds in the profit overall, from 59 winners and 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 89 selections.
08:08am, 06-01-11, highlighted my fun long on cable just now.
14:03pm, 05-01-11, grabbed 35 quid from the oil long, so that is 100 pounds in the profit overall, from 58 winners and 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 88 selections.
13:51pm, 05-01-11, highlighten my fun long on nymex just now.
10:35am, 05-01-11, grabbed 12 quid, bored stiff, time for a walk about, so that is 65 pounds in the profit overall, from 57 winners and 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 87 selections.
09:51am, 05-01-11, it is sticky upstairs too, so went for another fun short just now.
09:39am, 05-01-11, grabbed eight quid, a bit sticky on the bollinger midline, so take the short off for now, so that is 53 pounds in the profit overall, from 56 winners and 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 86 selections.
09:28am, 05-01-11, nominated a fun short on ftse at 5998 just now.
08:31am, 05-01-11, purchase a second penny share Aminex at 0.91p to add to our Moopenny Fund.
06:01am, 05-01-11, some observation on ftse 100:
"as per chart
1. above 5990, bulls only until 6055/6090 at least
2. under 5990, bears only until 5930/5890
if we never break 5990 on 15m, then a break of pivot 6011 sends the bulls on their way
if we break 5990, go down to 5770ish, and then bounce back to pivot 6011, that could be a short
good luck all"
some comments on US Light Crude:
"market is undecided
as per chart
above 8960, bulls only;
under 8830, bears only
or play the yoyo in between 8830-8950
three possible plays
good luck all"
21:17pm, 04-01-11, another bullish day tomorrow until at least 4pm, be careful if you are a bear, good night. And this bull run has legs.
17:26pm, 04-01-11, lost the 20 quid gamble on Nymex, rather unnecessary, so that is 45 pounds in the profit overall, from 55 winners and 27 losers and 3 breakevens out of 85 selections.
17:13pm, didn't come back to the screen in time for the final short on ftse from 6030, what a shame. Anyway, highlighted another of my fun bet on commodities.
14:51pm, grabbed another 32 quid from the ftse short, so that is 65 pounds in the profit overall, from 55 winners and 26 losers and 3 breakevens out of 84 selections.
14:16pm, 04-01-11, nominated another fun bet on indices.
13:01pm, 04-01-11, grabbed 30 quid as cable is not tanking, so that is 33 pounds in the profit overall, from 54 winners and 26 losers and 3 breakevens out of 83 selections.
12:16pm, nominated another fun bet on indices just now.
11:20am, 04-01-11, grabbed 7 quid from the cable short, so that is 3 pounds in the profit overall, from 53 winners and 26 losers and 3 breakevens out of 82 selections, need to have some fresh air, not had a good day so far.
11:01am, 04-01-11, made a bad mistake on the ftse short, took the full 100 quid loss there, now that is so that is 4 pounds in the red overall, from 52 winners and 26 losers and 3 breakevens out of 82 selections with one running.
10:43am, 04-01-11, nominated a fun bet on forex.
07:15am, 4th January 2011, nominated a fun bet on indices just now, a gap trade. Looking at Cable's overall weakness, the other markets are pullbacks in the bull market so far! Have a nice day.
18:33pm, 03-01-11, out of the cable long at breakeven, don't like the limper too much, so that is 96 pounds in the profit overall, from 52 winners and 25 losers and 3 breakevens out of 80 selections.
17:37pm, 03-01-11, nominated a fun bet on forex just now.
15:48pm, 03-01-11, I am actually a crude bull, but it was not ideal to buy on resistances at the mo and so close to the upperbank too. Probably need to wait for the daily close today to see what happens next, as the daily triangle is under constant threat.
15:31pm, 03-01-11, grabbed 20 quid from the crude short, a bit jittery, as it is counter-trend scalp, so that is 96 pounds in the profit overall, from 52 winners and 25 losers and 2 breakevens out of 79 selections.
15:07pm, 03-01-11, nominated another fun bet on commodities after the ok news from the yankies.
14:02pm, 03-01-11, got stopped out for the quid profit on the crude short just now, so that is 76 pounds in the profit overall, from 51 winners and 25 losers and 2 breakevens out of 78 selections. They even protected the 9180ish double bottom, amazingly stubborn bulls. Now do nothing until after 3pm news.
13:58pm, 03-01-11, locked in now to ride it.
13:38pm, 03-01-11, nominated a fun bet on commodities just now.
13:05pm, 03-01-11, turning bullish across the board now, but quite a few nearing major pivotal resistances.
12:11pm, the daily triangle on US Light Crude looks tradable.
09:57am, 03-01-2011, no ideal trading conditions across the board, so take a break from the screens until the yankies come back.
08:13am, 03-01-11, looking bearish across the board today.
19:03pm, 02-01-11, taken off the weekly reports, ready, steady, go! Good luck all.
12:32pm, 02-01-11, done all the seven reports now, time to chill out. Have a nice day, folks.
20:18pm, 01-01-11, I have done the weekly moo river studies on US Light Crude, Euro/dollar, BP, Motive Television and Gold. Still working on the indices, which is the most difficult of all.
Some notes from the weekend roundup:
"Trade what we see, is the motto for 2011, nothing more, nothing less, and trade on confirmations as much as possible.
From what I have gathered so far, some of our members had a reasonably good year like our consistently winning daytrader MS; our C stood out by turning a 2k account into a 10k one as well as enjoying a fab run on his hold on physical gold, besides flying high in the sky day in day out (if you want to learn flying, let me know, I will pass it onto our C). Our GK sent me this great Christmas present with the following feedback:
"Hello trigger I went out for dinner and had 47 emails when I came home that's what I call a service! U really should have rested yesterday and today, uneed to recharge in these quiet days for the battle ahead!I've really turned the corner with my trading since rejoining the mooclub and have 9 successive weeks of profit between 50 and 140 quidunder my belt. Enough for me as I do this on top of my full time jobcourtesy of my Ig iPhone app, arf arf.I need to decide I'd I am on a lucky run with my trades or gettingbetter, time will tell but for a bit longer catious stakes.My big hope for next year is Range resources but a penny share I do hold is MTV any thoughts welcomed. After all that's why we do it, to make our friends and family better isn't it? I want to be rich then give it allaway!All the best for 2011 and thanks for 2010 ive learned a lot. G"
That made me very happy indeed. Whenever any of you tell me that you have had a good winning day, winning week or month, my heart thumped with pride and happiness. It made all my long hours from dawn to late night worth the while.
GK, you are our Moostar of the week and congratulations and very well done indeed.
On the other hand, in the new year, I need to take regular breaks away from the screens to do some exercises like powerwalk etc., as this mooriver watching/trading business is here to stay for years to come and I need to maintain my good health and protect my eyes as well. That is my New Year's resolution.
Now let's have a look at the forecasts and outcomes for the past week:
FTSE 100: 5980-6120 (actual: 5915-6021);
Gold: $1415-$1372 (actual: $1421-$1373);
US Light Crude: $91.40-$96.70 (actual: $89.03-$92.05);
Dow: 11560-11860 (actual: 11514-11624);
Cable: $1.5520-$1.5185 (actual: $1.5345-$1.5665);
Barclays Bank: 260-280 pence (actual: 263-270 pence);
Nexus Management: 0.3-0.4 pence (actual: 0.3-0.3 pence).
For 2011, I will be focusing on watching out for the most accurate forecasts in terms of daily and weekly moo river range updates; watching out for the most probable and least risky trading opportunities in our fun bet series; and watching out for entries and exits for Moopenny Fund (our first investment in Motive Television from 0.71 pence is showing some paper profit there standing near 1 penny, thanks to our Moostar GK's tip! haha).
Have a good holiday, folks."
Thanks for visiting this blog and all the best wishes to all of you for a very prosperous 2011, the year of the Metal Rabbit, come 3rd February 2011.
This is a brief diary of the service provided to t
