if correlated in the same direction
that is the strongest of all
if opposite between chart and rsi
take your pick
but the risk is increased
the probability is lowered.
moo river
you need to be as disciplined as Theory
you need to be as patient as Theory
you need to be as meticulous as Theory
you need to ride it as Theory
moo river
upstream
buy near lowerbank with stop loss
once risen
stop profit and ride it all the way up to the upperbank
moo river
downstream
sell near upperbank with stop loss
once fallen
stop profit and ride it all the way down to the lowerbank
moo river
anything else
follow Theory into the gardens
get your fingers green
not chopped by falling knives
not burnt by erupting volcano
moo river
the Theory of daytrading
discipline
patient
stop loss
stop profit
ride it to the full course
moo river
the Theory of Life
you do little things
when you can
you achieve big things
moooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Note: Theory is my friend's alias on III FTSE100 forum who is simply the best Moo River Trader with a focus on automatic trading system development.
Moo Rivers
I tend to look at the correlated directions across the chart, rsi graph and macd graph (not histogram). The correlation among these three indicators help to reduce risk and increase probability of a successful trade. What we are looking for is whether the trend is up (upstream) or down (downstream) and how deep is a moo river so that we know our profit margin.
Once we have identified the rivers by drawing on the price chart, RSI and MACD graph, we may follow the following moo river trading principles:
1. upstream
Correlated upstream moo rivers, lowerbank trades are the HPLRHPM trades;
2. down stream
Correlated downstream moo rivers, upperbank trades are the HPLRHPM trade;
if you look at the daily chart, 17th June, the trade that you wanted a waterfall and rode to the full length was really one such HPLRHPM trade, the moo rivers were correlated and it was an upperbank trade too. There, you got it spot on.
We are always on the lookout for this kind of HPLRHPM trades. These are tier 1 trades.
And there are tier 2 scalping trading, in terms of the crossing of the rivers. This means short scalping in a CD moo river and long scalping in a CU moo river. They are actually quite high probability and low risk trades, though their profit targets are often uncertain or limited.
What about third tier trades, with slightly lower probability and higher risks, such as lowerbank trade in a correlated downstream moo river and upperbank trade in a CU (correlated upstream) moo river. The problem with lowerbank in a CD moo river or upperbank in a CU moo river is that it is likely to burst sometimes as the moment could go into overdrive. Still, bank trades are always higher probability and lower risk ones. These are obviously tier 3 trades.
I think as moo river traders, we should avoid any other trades altogether, such as long scalping in a CD moo river and short scalping in a CU moo river. And if we can, we should avoild tier 3 trades as much as possible as well, as their risks are higher than the other two tiers.
On a given day, our main tasks are the following:
1. upstream or downstream?
2. CU or CD?
3. CB(correlated banks);
4. tier 1, 2, or 3?
In the process of all that, we thrown in CWM (correlated WMs) as well. Obviously, my main ''discovery'' is the C word.
In terms of non-correlated moo rivers, there is one group which might be worth considering, this is when one of the moo rivers is coming to an end, this potentially could be a HPLRHPM trade as well, if bank, then tier 1 trade.
In terms of trading triggers, we are looking for correlated W's for lowerbank trades and correlated M's for upperbank trades.
Successful trading involves finding your own trading system, be disciplined and manage your capital.==========================
On the use of RSI:
In term of the use of the value of RSI, I now use this in this way
1. let's say the norm range is between 30 and 70
2. in a downstream moo river, you are more likely to see the range between sub-60 and sub-30; in an upstream moo river, you will be more likely to see a range between above-40 and above-70;
3. for reversals, from a downstream to an upstream, we watch out for the first breach of 70; for reversal from upstream to downstream, we watch out for the first breach of 30;
4. the values at 40 or 60 are important, because in a downstream, 60 provides a strong resistance, in an upstream, 40 provides a strong support;
5. the points at value 40 and 60 are important only in relation to the above as well as in terms of the moo rivers I draw on the rsi itself (haha, something you don't like that much); hence, it all depends whether they happen in the upstream there or downstream there, on the way up or down.
1. flat moo rivers, which are not frequent in index trading;
2. in a downstream moo river, after a full crossing from the upperbank to the lowerbank, hence the bounce off the lowerbank is generally a weak affair, corrective, rather than impulsive, until it somehow meanders across to the upperbank for the next full crossing down;
3. in an upstream moo river, after a full crossing from the lowerbank to the upperbank, same logic here as above in a reversed way.
Trend trades are mainly for full impulsive crossings, hence let the trend be your friend, trend trade of longs in upstream moo rivers and shorts in downstream moo rivers, any other trend trades are frustrating and tend to carry more fantasy than reality, causing the trend traders hating themselves for not piling up points as the scalpers do.
Scalping for me is when you know where to get off and where to get on, trend trade is when you don't know where to get off and once get on, you don't want to get off.
There is nothing wrong with trending trade, as long as you are prepared for it mentally
If you spot a trend, and you are a trend trader, you get on and hold, full stop! until it hits your target.
But it is not that easy. If you hold and watch the market, then you get jittery and uneasy with the ups and downs in the meandering range before the trend continues like now and sometimes trend gets started but fails at a later stage as well.
Scalping is just about the same, you kick yourself when you miss out on the free ride on a trend.
It is a non-brainer, but it is all psychological, you have to keep your heart balanced and happy.
So a mixbag of scalping and trending trade is perhaps the best way.
Yearly: it is incredibly precarious, as we are holding onto the bollinger midline here, the lower bollinger band is near 1463. I can't imagine a world at that level at this moment, how much gloom and doom there will be, even for a perpetual optimist like myself! It is possible that we are trying hard to shape up a yearly reversal doji candle, but the momentum indicators are still all over the place.
Quarterly: we are not bullish here, though some momentum indicators are trying to bend upwards, particularly rsi, which faces a key challenge around 44. Watch that level very closely, a reveral there will be significant, possibly resulting in prices testing new lows. But that is a long time away yet, as we are looking 30 year quarterly charts. A rally up to 8900 will be satisfactory to some bulls, but it will still be very bearish. Only a rise above 9100 will alarm some long term bears.
Monthly: while we are having a strong rally, the momentum indicators are not shaped up so bullishly.
Weekly: we are hitting some upperbanks on momentum indicators, e.g., rsi, Momentum. While it gives an overall bullish feel all over the charts, long term bears must be waiting patient for any signs of bearish divergence to place their strategic shorts. Price is hugging the bollinger midline and para SAR dots are still green.
Daily: if you look at the price chart, it is slightly rounding up, which will be bearish. We need a solid rise to destroy the rounded top. RSI has broken down through an upstream moo river, which has supported this current rally so far. Momentum indicators are tiring and toppish. We are getting near to the end of this beautiful bull run and a healthy pullback is the minimum to be expected. If 8000 is broken, don't try to catch falling knives on dips and dives. One needs proper bullish signals to buy again, as we have had a great bull run and there is plenty of profit to be taken and bears have been hurt and now want their share of the cake, in a very hungry mood indeed. Spikes towards 8600 will be great chance to book profit for bulls and place strategic shorts for bears, based on shorter term momemtum indicators and correlated M's, if any, and bearish divergence. A volatile week is coming up.
17:28pm, 9th April, 2009: Dow: Quarterly: We are trying to bounce up there, but only trying at the moment.
Monthly: Some momentum indicators are pointing up now, but others are still very weak, it is not yet conclusive. But if you are a bull, this is the biggest bear market rally we can get in this downturn, while permabears will be waiting to sell when this one is done, as the potential for downside will be quite enticing as well. I don't think we can ever get out of the bear market mode in one go through this rally, but this rally has a time scale of many months to cross over to the upperbanks. Bears must be patient while bulls need to ride it as much as they could, for this is the mother of all rallies.
Weekly: if you want to turn into a bull or a tempbull, you need to stare at weekly chart and momentum charts for a few secondds, it will hit you like a train, the bullishness there. Downstream moo rivers are broken one after another, W and V shapes are all over the place. We are not done yet, the key challenge is near 9100ish, but the potential is about 11700ish, shocking, but very much possible if we have a massive V rally. I know even I would be thinking I would be stuck on some shorts by then, if it really goes that far! It is a big struggle between hope and desperate pessimism and I am a perpetual optimist. However, amongst the momentum indicators, there are signs emerging that a short-term pullback is due again and this time, it might be more substantial. The weekly doji is not helping the cause here. while a business as usual maximum weekly range could be 8650 and 7950, market might play out differently.
daily: we are getting complicated in terms of momentum indicators, but we are getting tired without a proper regurgitation, having come up so quickly. We might need one more parabolic rise before we tank down big, or we even do without that much of bull fuss. Things are going to get really hairy and hectic in this coming week.
08:48am, 5th April 2009: Dow: Monthly: we are in a bounce, dead cat or end of the bear market, it all depends.
Weekly: very bullish here indeed, breaking downstream moo rivers on rsi, stoc and macd. If you are a bull, what more encouragement do you need? It is all systems go here, and a challenge of 9300ish is definitely on the card.
Daily: we have gone past some correlated M's here as well, now perhaps one more spike should induce a major pullback. 8700ish might be sufficient.
Hourly: support near 7900; 7600 and 7200 final.
SPX500: Quarterly: the bear market is only at most half way through yet.
Monthly: there is a glimpse of hope for bulls there. Whiel it is highly disappointing for it to have made a lower low than 2002, it is very marginal. Some oddly shaped W's are emerging there. We are either at teh beginning of a very long bull run or we have not yet stared. Long term supports are near 769 and 666 and key resistance at 960.
Weekly: it may not be as bullish as Hong Kong, but we are heading towards a key resistance on the rsi upstream moo river and macd downstream moo river. A pullback is quite a likely scenario there, though a breach there will shock many bears into frantic action.
Daily; we have gone past some correlated M's there, which always signpost for bear camps ahead.
Overall, I think this one is trying to shape up an inversed Head and shoulder, holding of support near 770ish protects the head and a break of 960 will confirm the head and shoulder being inversed.
On daily, we have just gone through a bull flag as well (similar to many indices in the world), so a continuation of the trend should enable us to reach 960 key resistance.
21:18pm, 30th March 2009: Dow: today's regurgitation is incredibly bullishly healthy, I think the bulls world over will sigh a great relief, now we are ready for some serious challenges. On the weekly, bullish divergence is so obvious, where the fall from 9000 to the current level is a bargain to be had. In terms of this current bull run, we have not finished, but just started.
On the daily charts, we have just started this regurgitation, while the pressure is downwards, it could be stopped anytime.
On the hourly, we could stop here, or we could go further to test 7200, which should certainly hold. Once we move over 7700, this regurgitation would have been finished.
12:48pm, 29th March 2009: dow: Quarterly: it must have been a perfect bear market for bears, as there has never been a green candle since Q4 of 2007. But we must say on the other hand it is very oversold indeed, with macd having achieved the same depth of bearishness as of the last bear market in 2002/3. From these oversold conditions, one might say the most likely way is up.
Monthly: Some signs of life there with a green monthly candle so far, but we have still got two days to go and rsi is bending up and macd is lessening in bearishness and other momentum indicators are trying to revive.
Weekly: this is where global bulls find comfort and encouragement as things are more bullish here. There are three green weekly candles and a first green para sar dot. RSI has just breached the downstream moo river slightly. MACD is challenging the upperbank of the downstream moo river now and has turned slightly bullish. Stoc has turned sharply bullish, having breached its downstream moo river. This bull run has legs.
Daily: a bit tired there, but price has overcome two key bear resistance so far, really, 9000 must be the target now, with or without the pullback, though it seems the consensus is for a major pullback which is healthy, but healthy style is not the American way of life, they live life to the extremes, so be very wary of the consensual view.
hourly: there is an upstream moo river there as well, lowerbank now near 7680 and then 7550 and just above 7250, which should hold this time. I can really see any pullback to go under 7200, otherwise this bull run is finished.
SPX500: similar story to dow, but slightly more bullish on monthly with correlated W's there. Any regurgitation should stop above 750/760 main support. 1000 is not too out of the question, really
weary, so some profit taking for a Friday is not unhealthy.
5:58am, 24th March 2009: I have always said 7800 is actually the line in the sand for dow and so is 830 for spx500. We have definitely hit the ceilings, upperbanks, midlines (whatever you want to call it) yesterday. While it is highly expected for pullbacks, a drilling through the ceilings will be a sucker rally for bears to dive into. 900 should be a good stopping place for SPX500 and for dow, the wildest beast of all, it might have to be just under 9000. It all depends on whether we can hold above 7300 and whether we can break this ceiling at 7800. Mind you, on dow, this is the 5th time we knock on this particular upperbank, so success is not guaranteed, but a success here will be a huge success--yes, we might need to contemplate the end of the bear market if we do break this one!
dow: On Sundays, we look at the 30 year charts for an insight into history. There is no bullishness yet on monthly chart. You can say it shows it is very oversold there, but there is no visible bullishness yet. We are looking at a possible green monthly candle, but there are still ten days to go yet for the bulls to hold onto this first green candle after 6 red candles. On the weekly charts, we have just had a second reluctant green candle or doji candi. More importantly, we debate whether we are at the end of Wave 5 down or Wave 3. If you use parabolic Sar on the weekly chart, you could argue we have had five waves down already. On the weekly momentum indicators, such as rsi and macd, you can also draw long running downstream moo rivers.Watch out for any breakouts, as it would indicate a change of underlying momentum. On the weekly price chart, you can also argue we have started an upstream moo river, since two weeks ago. If you link up the bottoms of those two weeks and use that to parallel against the chart for the past two years, you suddenly realise Week10 of 2009 has stopped just at the right place to shape up a potential upstream moo river from here onwards. It is so beautifully choregraphed that one simply can not ignored it!!! However, it might just be one of those weekly superhammer lifeline again, as it has repeated itself at that angle for the past two years.
On the daily chart, elder ray is showing a distinctive M there, so some weakness is to come this week. Most momentum indicators are bending down as well with price chart hitting and failing at a possible upperbank twice last week. I am hoping 7000 (6980 to be more precise) to hold the market up, if not,perhaps 6750, the superhammer lifeline. I am seeing early weakness for the beginning of the week (maybe subject to another bounce towards 7450ish, but not more) and then market regains its footing in the second half of the week towards 7700ish.
SPX500: I have never had a look at its 30 year chart before today, so it is a blank chart without any moo rivers there, quite refreshing really. ON the weekly chart, we can clearly see that we are in Wave 5 of this bear market, which is quite encouraging to the long term bulls. But it seems that we still have a good number of down weeks to come yet, before this bear market is finished once for all. With destruction of all hourly upstream moo rivers last week, some weakness is to be expected this week, unless something really surprises, but I don't think there will be, as we have had trillions day in day out, printed out to help the economy,nothing surprises this market on the upside any more, it should be kept under 790 at the beinning of the week and a test of 760 and perhaps just stops above 720 and then rallies back towards 820 later in the week. 06:42am, 27th March 2009: Dow supports are 7760; 7600 and 7400 and 7200, key. Resistance is mainly 8000; 8100 and 8200, key. Everyone is a bit bull leg
20:28pm, 7th March 2009: Dow: At least, this one is consistently bearish. It broke its superhammer lifeline three weeks ago and has now continued the bear market business as usual. This is the 4th red weekly candle we have had so far. While on the price chart, my last lowerbank is 6240 this week, the shape of the series of candles do look sharpish to me, so there is very little juice left there to be squeezed. It might trigger a V shaped bounce, which so fits the birth of another superhammer on the weekly. Dow watchers are watching only with no trade intentions. They are staring at the possibility of 5500 as well as 7000. If we can somehow manage to overcome 6800 convincingly, we could be in for a ride to 7500ish. That should be enough for this week to play out, a superhammer down to 6250/6300 and bounce back to 7500ish. If we manage to break 6800 and stay above that, a rise to 7500 is also not out of the question. I prefer the superhammer option, but that would almost be terminal for some market watchers for this bear run, so it is only an ideal situation for the bulls to have a Black Monday and a rally in the rest of the week. If not, then the superhammer will be much lower.
14:08pm on 1st March, 2009: Weekly: Three red candles in a row, normally means the fourth one will be a green one, strange but true. Why are long term bears taking shorts off? Not because it is summer, but because the juice in the lemon is onto the last few drops. It all depends on when you start to count the first wave down. If you start with Oct 2007 to Jan 2008, then we are almost finishing Wave 5 of the whole series of down waves, almost time to bounce up and down for a bit, before the next waves. Weekly MACD has not yet crossed to the upperbank and weekly rsi has touched the upperbank but is now stuck in oversold level again and weekly stoc is bearish but at very low level too. A final squeeze should see the end of this whole series of down moves to finish. There are absolutely no upstream moo rivers to buy into. If you buy, you are a bottom fisher, ready to buy to shape up an upstream moo river if there are others following you. On daily, possible W's could shape if we do not have a black Monday. Bulls simply can not afford a Black Monday, full stop! There is nothing more I want to add about the puppy SPX500, which has already shown me a big loss on my share isa!
07:51am on 27th February, 2009:Dow: somehow we are holding up against the former breached upperbank of the downstream moo river, which is encouraging. A break over 7270 will be highly significant. 7400 is the magnet for the bulls while bears are scratching their heads on how to break 7100/7000 bull defence. Somehow, one feels that we are meandering and waiting for a key trigger for the next major move, when it does move, it will move big!
15:28pm on 24th February 2009: Dow:Weekly: dow is so much bearish than ftse100. MACD is still stuck in the long ongoing downstream moo river, it never touched the upperbank in the bear market rally, which must be really disappointing for dow bulls. Weekly RSI is also stuck in the ongoing downstream moo river and stoc has completely collapsed. The only hope for dow bulls is that whenever weekly stoc hit this sort of oversold level, it has brought about huge rallies in the past, in this ongoing bear market. Once we broke through the former weekly superhammer lifeline between 8000 and 7900, we collapsed so quickly, it was pure bull slaughter in my absence.
Daily: there are no upstream moo rivers on dailies. The only hope is that the market might rally out of a sudden off some level without any reason, e.g., bears taking money home etc, it could happen here and it could happen off 6900 or lower. It is very much a bottom fisher's game. Then, there is always that health warning for knife catchers. Watch your fingers if you are a bull. Dow watchers are waiting to buy above 7500, which is a cautious approach.
SPX500: same stories as dow, a break up through 810 will bring some bulls come out to play.
10:08am on 8th February 2009: As I won't be updating this date from this week onwards for two weeks. I will try to look at the medium picture of the moo rivers on weekly. What happened last week was that dow has successfully defended its weekly superhammer lifeline. This gives out two possible scenario with different probabilities.
With 70% probability, dow will rise from 8000 area towards 9500 area in the next seven weeks, with 9500 as being the ultimate top, a firm breach of which signals the end of the great bear market once for all. However, if it stays underneath 9500ish, it only means that we have had a great bear market rally and the bear market continues. For this high probability scenario to happen, dow must breach 8800 in the next two weeks.
With 30% probability, dow will drop dramatically towards 7000 and below in the next 2-3 weeks, if we break 8000/7900 firmly.
Weekly rsi is kissing the weekly downstream moo river, a break there will be significant.
On the daily, we have triple correlated continuation W's on chart, rsi and stoc, with still plenty of room for upside. I am more inclined to think we are going to at least test 8800 this week, though the upperbank 1 for the downstream moo river is near 8700ish. It is more likely that a buy on dips and dives strategy will be paying out huge dividends in the coming 7 weeks, though selling into jabs or spikes towards 9500 will be equally profitable. Make the best of it before the market goes one way, either hugely up or down, the latter being the more probable status quo.
On Monday, we might see a spike high towards 8400 key resistance and a dramatic fall towards 8100/8200 support and then rise again. It is going to be volatile. YOu need to make up your mind and a trading plan and stay with it, no matter what, though you must embed both scenarios into your plan.
SPX500: The poodle in America will follow the leads of Dow, though it has not challenged its weekly superhammer lifeline yet. It might meander for the next 7 weeks between 800 and 1000 ultimately. It is a superscalping range, until it is broken. ON the daily, it has broken out of a downstream moo river there and shaped up some likely W's there as well. But it is really a sick poodle, so it wander this way and that way according to where Dow is headed. A kiss of 900 will be just too much for it to take this week and it might put itself back to the sickbed for quite a while. This one is fun to play with less volatility, if you don't like volality like us scalpers do
21:48pm on 5th February 2009: SPX500: the sickman these days are extremely strong, stronger than dow, almost stubbornly strong. Is it because I invested 1/3 of my share isa in this one? It is furtively kissing the upperbank of the downstream moo river on daily. Is it planning a secret rebellion? We shall soon find out tomorrow. Upside limits are 923 or 939 tomorrow.
Dow: the sickie today was dow, which almost got me confused as well and had certainly converted many permabulls into limbobears. Another lunge down towards 7950 is possible tomorrow to shape up the cup and handle. But that bullish engulfment on hourly should bode well tomorrow. We can almost see correlated W's on daily across chart, rsi and stoc, but very shallow one indeed. Upperbank 1 is near 8350 and upperbank 2 is near 8650, all downstream moo rives on daily. Very much a bear market rally, but bulls shoud enjoy it while it is there.
07:48am on 5th February 2009: SPX500: we are all stuck in a tight triangle today, even the sickie SPX. It is more obviously on daily chart. It is stuck under 854 and above 793. Bulls might be targeting 894, if they can break 854/855.
Dow: on the weekly, we are hanging on the thin thread of the lowerbank of that triangle on weekly, which is odd, how could it hang onto the cliff edge yesterday? It must be a miracle. Usually, with banks, you have flood and breach them in one go. Hourly, we are trying to shape a goal post shape, but it could collapse any time, if not, we are in bull business. All very fascinating stuff before the big day tomorrow. Is the market going to show its full hand today or tomorrow. In my experience, normally, markets goes to a half way place and hangs itself in the space, giving both plenty of suspension.
21:48pm on 3rd February 2009: Dow: yes, it grounded out a rounded bottom on hourly and now struggles with ma200/100 and the lowerbank near 8000ish. We could see it meander and hesitate between 8100 and 7950 tomorrow, a beach of either will be significant. To be bullish and sustainably bullish, we must break 8400. You have to go to weekly chart to see Dow has managed to hold above the triangular lowerbank, but on the daily, it has breached the lowerbank, but I would allow this particular 100 points buffer zone, but no more, a firm breach below 7900 to reach 7680 will confirm incrased bearishness. The case for bullishness is a reluctant one, the O Obama hope is hanging on a thin thread!
Spx500: let's have a look at the yankie sickman SPX. It seems to be trying its best to struggle out the sick bed. On daily, this is particularly the case, as it caved back into a downstream moo river since May 2008 but today it tried to bounce out of it. It needs to firmly break 860 to have a healthy chance for a healthy recovery towards 935. It is not lying down without a fight, which is nice. On the hourly, it has almost managed a three point reversal turning around in a moo river.
11:18am on 1st February 2009: SPX500 (cash): let's have a look at our yankie sickman first. It continues to meander down towards a challenge of the weekly superhammer lifeline near 790ish, a breach there bring the challenge of the 2008 low at 740 or lowerbank 2 near 695 and lowerbank 3 near 636, the ultimate challenge. However, the weekly macd is mildly bullishly crossed and rsi still has some headroom to touch the upperbank in the ginormous downstream moo river and stoc is mingling and tangling between bulls and bears. It is in this market hesitation mode that we operate, whereby we have to watch out for the breakouts, as once that happens, things could really move thick and fast.
On the daily chart, it looks very similar to the rounded top back in August and September 2008. If we breach 790 and touch 760, the downtrend is very much confirmed. Next week, we will be stuck in a tight triangle of an upperbank near 868 and a lowerbank near 790. A breach of either will be very significant indeed. The only bullish indication is that weekly has broken out of a long running ginormous downstream moo river since May 2008. It is almost make or break time in this coming week, be alert!
Dow: dow is hanging onto its weekly superhammer lifeline by a thread. The bears are bailing for more blood and once 8000/7900 support is breached, everyone turns into a bear for a huge drop, either to test the popular double bottom of 2008 low near 7450 or much lower. Since this bear market has been going on for a few years, in the past, once the weekly superhammer lifeline has been overcome by the bears, it always goes to new low. So it is very much a make or break time for Dow this week.
on the daily, the moo rivers are very clear cut, so they are very tradable indeed, despite the huge risk. You either defend 7900/8000 or turn into a moo bear once that is breached. If we successfully defend this key lifeline, we might meander towards upperbank 1 in the ginormous downstram moo river on daily near 8700. However, if we breach 8700, we could well go to challenge upperbank 2, which is in an upstream moo river near 9300ish. Monday is a key day for this bearbull battle. Take your pick and design your own moobull or moobear strategy. The daily W's have been finished last week.
Hourly, there is a glimpse of W on hourly rsi and possible stoc. A breach of ma200 near 8150 should give moobulls plenty relief. Once we pull away from that key lifeline, we may go up for at least three days.
08:52am on 29th January 2009: Dow: interestingly, dow watchers got stopped out when they went long in a bull run yesterday. Today, they think the risk and return for both long and short is about equal, so they are buying at 8425 and selling at 8275 for 200 points a go, which is interesting. They are saying once the range is broken, it will trend. Like Japan, dow is still stuck under the long running downstream moo river on weekly rsi. The most tradable moo rivers are on daily and hourly. The daily correlated W's look quite good, having brought a bull run about 500 points, which is also short of target according to my own estimation. On the hourly, it has just built up an upstream moo river there, but it is being threatened to breach at this very minute near 8280. I can see the logic of dow watchers' shorts placed there, but I also think 8200 might be the last line in the sand for the bulls, or even 8150 ma200 support. I am guessing it is a range trading day as well, unless this upstream moo river holds, whereby the upperbank 1 is near 8470 and upperbank 2 is near 8570 at this hour.
SPX500: it is a poodle following the dow and it seems quite comfortable within that long running downstream moo river on weekly rsi as well. It is in a no man's land within the range of 940 and 789 adn the Ws on daily are the most awkward of all, definitely drawn by a drunkard or a sickman. On the hourly, it is struggling with that neckline as well near 870, needing a firm breach to bring forth an aggressive attack on the jail door or upperbank near 940.
08:12am on 28th January 2009: Dow: beyond 8250, there is thin air towards 8800 at least on weekly. Weekly macd has some headroom towards the upperbank in the downstream moo river as well. Dow watchers are intuitively more bullish than bearish, their long target is 200 points north of 8250 and their short is 125 points south of 8100. I am always intrigued to see the reason behind their profit targets. On the daily, the correlated W's are screaming at you and beyond 8350 ma20 resistance, there is thin air towards 8800. So 8800 might just be the target for this honeymoon rally for now, though we might go as high as 9300 if we have enough time before 19th February.
Spx500: This one is bouncing up and down in its own pace between the two river banks on weekly, between 793 and 930 which is also the ma20 resistance point. It just follows dow anyway, so if you have to trade this one, draw a line across to look at dow. On the hourly, it also has that inversed head and shoulder pattern, but basically 930 might be the target, however long it takes.
06:28am on 27th January 2009: Spx500: the correlated W's on daily are a bit mis-shaped, so not the clearest and strongest of all. It has breached ma200 and had a bullish crossing amongst the ma lines overnight, so 920/940 is the ultimate challenge, but given Spx500 is a sickman, it might meander and be happy to follow dow.
dow: the most tradable moo river is on daily as well, with correlated W's there across chart, rsi and stoc off bottom, but they are not as strong as FTSE's. Initially, we are stuck under 8250; 8330; then main resistance near 8750 upperbank 1 and 9060 upperbank 2 and ultimately 9288 upperbank 3. I am staring at an emerging upstream moo river there, but it has yet to be confirmed. At least, upperbank 1 is very much doable.
12:38 pm on 25th January 2009: Dow: I think it nearly or almost touched the weekly superhammer lifeline, but the response was very much muted, though it has been defended successfully this time. Bears might want to have another pop at 7900 or 7820 next week. We need a substantial bullish bounce to get it off the ground and stop the rot. A breach of 8330 is required to give bulls more heart and then again the key resistance on daily downstream moo river is just under 8800. The daily rsi W went pear-shaped last week, which was so bearish and macd and stoc are still bearishly crossed. Below 7800, there is only thin air towards 7200ish. Bulls need to rush out this week, otherwise we could cave in big. I am still hopeful 78/7900 will be defended by O Obama and Co.
SPX500: it did not manage to get close enough to the weekly superhammer lifeline, now near 780 this week. A spike up towards 910 will bring out many bears. It is a mess there. I prefer dow to spx500, though I am not trading either.
11:08am on 18th January 2009: Dow: this could be a very interesting week indeed as we landed in the centre of a diamond, where a top is near 8830 and a bottom is near 7900 (on the daily, it could equate to 8900 and 7800). Could we see a massive rally to the top and then a big caving in towards the bottom or vice versa? Be ready for the volatility. 79/7800 is now the lifeline for the weekly superhammer which I am hoping to hold this time round. Weekly Rsi is still kissing the upperbank of the ginormous downstream moo river since September 2006. We are not out of the woods yet. On the hourly, we are stuck in a downstream moo river there, a break of 8370 is required to confirm an early rise towards 8800/8900, the so-call O Obama rally. But it will be a volatile week, if you blink, you might have missed the train; a second thought could see you standing on the track facing the train that is rushing back. If you want to conserve your capital at all costs, hold tight and stay away from trading this week.
SPX500: Whenever I look at this one, I always feel why bother! Let's just say it is one to be avoided by moo traders, it is ranging between 940 and 780
8:32am on 16th January 2009: dow has bounced off the key 8000 level and is now ready to challenge the upperbank near 8800 again. Hourly, it has shaped up for a reversal of the falls, just need to break 8400 to confirm the uptrend.
06:36am on 12th January 2009: Dow watchers are out of the market, just watching! They quite like a test of 8370 and I think it is very likely it might test slight lower 8200ish, though the weekly superhammer lifeline is much lower near 7800.
12:32pm on 11th January 2009: Dow is similar to Hong Kong, not as bullish as FTSE. The red weekly candle fits nicely inside the midline of the ginormous bear market downstream moo river. Momentum indicators are still supportive. The weekly superhammer lifeline is near 7777. That lifeline will be challenged one day, it is just a matter of time. On the daily chart, dow is trying to confuse some stubborn bulls, as it sits along the lowerbank of an upstream moo river. But I have written it off, as it is not a moo river, but a channel to cross the river, so not as strong. Rsi has broken down the upstream moo river, macd and stoc are weakening towards the bearish side. A break overnight below Friday's low means we are back in the ongoing ginormous bear market downstream moo river again. First up, 8242; second up, 8000; and next is that weekly superhammer lifeline near 7777. Dow confuses me a bit, as it does not fit in with the Wave 4 count as FTSE. It feels almost like in a ginormous Wave 3 down towards 7000. Wave 1 from 9651 to 7453; Wave 2 corrective rally from 7453 to 9088; Wave 3 from 9088 to 6890 minimum. I am not trading dow full stop at the moment!
SPX500: weekly chart has not finished the crossing to the midline yet. There is some unfinished job there to be done.
Daily is hugging the ma20 lifeline as a support to meander across to the upperbank near 945ish. It looks like a sickman on life support machine, at any time, the support could be pulled and life in the bull goes all the way out. Dangerous looking chart there on daily.
06:39 am on 9th January 2009: We are stuck in a tight triangle today on daily chart, which has two conflicting moo rivers. The main ginormous downstream moo river from last August and the new upstream moo river from 20th November. But I think that upstream is just a crossing from lowerbank to upperbank. The triangle tightens at 8980 for the upperbank and 8590 for the lowerbank. I prefer the down scenario, a breach of 8690, brings 8265 and then 8000.
7:43am on 6th January 2009: dow is kissing the upperbank on weekly chart, 9000 is the key, give or take 100 points, as Dow watchers are watching 9050 and 8850 closely. Daily, it is almost submerging itself into the upperbank, ma100 at 9200 looks solid. Hourly: for an ultrabull, a breach of 9000 will indeed be very bullish, if not, we could tank down to hourly rsi 26ish.
12:28pm on 4th January 2009: Dow is not as bullish as FTSE, as its weekly chart got stuck under the main upperbank from October 2008. Unless we breach 9000 convincingly on Monday, then we will test 8700ish key bull stronghold, a breach there will bring many bear points in the ongoing bear market.
Daily: chart is stuck under the middleline in the ongoing downstream moo river from May 2007, so nothing too exciting for the bulls yet, just a bear market rally. There is no tradable upstream moo river there yet, though macd, rsi and stoc are supportive and bullish. If we go beyond 9000, then we are headed to the upper section of the downstream moo river, headed towards 10500ish, also the ma200 resistance. Given dow is a wild beast, that could be done very quickly. There is no tradable moo river on hourly either, it is all over the place, though certain upstream.
Overall, it is still bearish with the daily candle body tucked under the upperbank. I will be very surprised if we are heading towards 10500, rather than the more business as usual 8000 next week.
SPX500: That one is even weaker than dow, though there is some scope to touch the middleline in the ongoing downstream moo river on weekly near 960/950, a test of which will fit ma100 on daily, which is perhaps the best bulls can hope for, a breach there though will bring up a challenge of ma200 resistance on daily near 1140, but I can't really see that happening. No tradable upstreams there yet, just the ongoing bear market downstream for the past two years. Bulls' lifeline is about 860 for now, a beach there will see a further spike down to 700 if not more.
10:58am, 31st December 2008:A week is a long time in the market, we have still got two more trading days left here this week. 9000 will be the key test for all bulls and bears and on the hourly, dow has more bull legs than ftse, as ftse has exerted itself yesterday more than dow. A test of 8600 will be jittery for the bulls, if that holds, it is all very bullish today. If not, then we could go all the way back to 8300 support again, if the bears decide to clear up all the bulls.
13:32pm, 30th December 2008: Dow seems to be bouncing off 8350 support quite handily at the moment.
Weekly: it is sitting pretty ont eh chart, in between a little triangle, between 8350 and 8700, a breach of either will bring significant reward. RSI is still kissing without showing which side is coming out on top, bull or bear? RSI is crossing to the upperbank, still some room in the upside. Stoc is meandering bullishly against the lowerbank. Overall, at least some more leg left in this bull run yet.
Daily: there is no micro tradable moo river there. Only on a bigger scale, there is a ginormous downstream moo river, which I have divided into two halves. If You link up tops on 2nd and 19 September to form the top upperbank and Parallel against lows on 10th Oct and 21 Nov to form the ginormous downstream moo river and parallel again to link up tops on 14 Oct and 4th Nov to form a middle line to divide this ginormous river into two halves. At the moment, we are stuck in the lower half and the middle point of resistance is near 9100 today.
Macd has almost touched its lowerbank in an upstream moo river since 12th Oct and so is RSI. Stoc is trying to bounce off the lowerbank. Overall, FTSE is more bullish than dow, but both have some room for the upside yet.
Hourly: it is stuck between two evils, ma200 and ma20, 8610 and 8530 respectively. Interesting afternoon to follow. I am not trading dow at all at the moment.
21:23pm Christmas day 2008:
dow
Same story here, we are officially still very much in this ginormous bear market. For dow, I am trying a different approach to analyse it, using more of a horizontal moo river method, than the usual slanting upward or downward approaches.
Weekly, it is very clear the key bear stronghold is 9000, a breach there will bring forth more bullish possibilities. MACD is still kissing, rsi has turned negative a bit, while stoc is meandering near the bottom line. It is a very stick situation. With RSI so close to the upperbank of the ongoing downstream moo river from September 2006, at best there might be a test of 9000, though unless we are going to switch out of the bear market mode altogether, this downstream moo river on rsi might continue further. There, we need to keep our eyes out for that development, because weekly rsi has bounced off 19.5 in week 42. A firm break of this downstream moo river for the past two years will have very bullish implications.
key resistances are 8770, 9000/9050 main and then 9300; key supports are 8070 and 7900 main.
The most tradable moo rivers are on hourly. At this very moment, we are stuck in two conflicting moo rivers, one upstream from 5th Dec (low) and one downstream from 17th (top). A breach of 8350 will confirm the downstream moo river and bring up a test towards 8100; on the other hand, a breach of 8520 will confirm the upstream moo river, a bullish success there will bring up test of 8800; 8900 and higher. In fact, these two conflicting moo rivers are very much tradable for the coming days. I think the market is bearishly titled on dow, towards 7900/8000 possibly.
09:18am on 24th December 2008: Dow looks quite bearish to me. It is clear that the bulls have given up the ghost to try to break the upside which is between 8900 and 9000 and they have gone hiding for now, while bears, taking on that encouragement of their defensive success, are now aggressively exerting vicious attacks on the downside, between 8200 and 7950, where bulls will have to put up a brave fight for their dear lives. With dow being such a wild beast and some hedge funds still hungry for cash, anything can happen today. The likelihood for downside probes is much better than another assault on te upside, but we are all in the mercy of juniors who have been left on their cold desks to play, while the big boys go drink themselves silly with flows of spirit, into their spiritless bodies--what a year the City and Wall Street must have had!
13:28pm on 21-12-08: This is a weekly commentary on trading on dow futures.
Weekly: On the chart, we have had an inside bar, meaning lower high and higher low and I have not yet learnt that theory to see what it means next. But it was a red candle, so a disruption to the current Santa rally. The task ahead should be fairly straight forward. On the RSI, if you link up the tops and parallel, you will find this ginormous downstream moo river. If you line up the recent W, you will have a tight triangle to play with, break out should be expected soon, as there is very little room left to meander. MACD is still keeping a safe bearish distance from each other and stoc is lying low on the ground. I think an upward breakout is more likely, then again I have been saying this for ages as well as weekly is never too good a guidance for daytraders.
Daily: for bulls, it was a huge disappointment to break down a major lowerbank on the chart. Now I have redrawn a second possible upstream moo river with a much lower upperbank near 9650 on Monday and a lowerbank just above 8500 for Monday. This is the last possible redrawing of upstream moo rivers. If 8500 is breached on Monday, we will either go horizontal or downstream. RSI is yet to touch its lowerbank and macd is just about to kiss and turn bearish. All very unclear there. I will be very surprised that dow does not try once to breach a middle line just under 9200 and turn sharply straight down next week. 8100-8200 will be a key battleground for bulls to defend their dear lives,as if that caves in, we are headed to 7800-7700 lower zone again. While I have given up trading on dow in this 8500 and 9000 range, I might be tempted again in the lower zone if that happens next week. Between FTSE and Dow, dow is more bearish, subject to huge down swings next week.
Next week, the battlegrounds are clear cut: 8450/8500 for the downside and 8650 for the upside initially, then 8100-8200 for the downside and 8850-8950 for the upside. I am hoping both sides put up a good fight, so that there are lots of money to be made.
20:00pm, 14th December 2008:this is a weekly commentary on dow trading as well.
Weekly: Dow is not as bullish as ftse. We have had a green candle as well, but the reluctance there is signficant. The W's are obscure. We have watch out the reaction when dow rsi reaches its upperbank in the ginormous downstream moo river near 40 (currently just above 35). Stoc is shaping a nice w there and bullishly crossed as well. MACD is nowhere near to a loving kiss yet. Above 9300, there is only thin air for bulls to carve through towards 10000 or more.
Daily: the upstream moo river held there with the green candle body on Friday withdrawn within the river. On Monday, if dow can hold above 8450, we are indeed headed for 9200/9300 or more. This is a much more clear cut upstream than FTSe daily chart. Stoc is M's topped and rsi and macd is meandering upwards in upstream moo rivers with room for both sides. If this daily upstream moo river holds, then we are soon be playing a triangle between 9200 and 8500 roughly, a breach of either side brings another 700 points minimum, so 10000 and 7800 roughly. It will be fascinating week again and I still remain a bull under 9200, though I will be very much hesitant to buy above 9200, if it comes to it. I might turn into a bear then.
Hourly, a bit toppish across the board, though all still bullishly configured with W's and bullish crossed support. Above 8720 will give bears much headache, though a rejection there might bring out my friend Stubear's three cheers (three peaks) and a doomhouse again. Downside should be contained above 8100, though dow is the wild beast of all. I will be buying only very selectively on dow.
11th December 2008, 15:03pm: dow watchers' shorts are cut now, which is quite a usual thing. That is what I said, I prefer to trade within the range rather than breakout.
11th December 2008, 13:38pm: dow watchers' shorts are now on, that is always very interesting, reload longs again. Now let's see whether their long will be entered at 8900 as well. Range trading is often better than breakout trading, since it just happens more often.
11th December 2008, 06:01am:Today, we have a clear battleground to play with. Maximum daily trading rang is between 8370 and 9470, though more rational trading range might be between 8470 and 9240. If you are a bull like I am, I am looking to defend 8640; 8570; 8450 and finally 8350. If you are a bear, you are looking to defend 8840/8890 (main) and after that, thin air, 9230ish. So the tasks for each side are very clear cut. Momentum has not been maintained on hourly macd and rsi, so I am expecting some downward pressure early on to reload my longs, pending the appearance of a W along the lowerbanks.
Dow watchers are watching to buy above 8950 and selling under 8630, with 250 points profit target, I think that is just about right, though I would rather play within the range rather than trading on breakouts.
10th December 2008, 21:08pm: I still insist on my weekly target around 9200 by this weekend. It is getting a lot of hard going now, but that is exactly when the market will surprise many a bear. But I will not buy under 8600 at all.
10th December 2008, 05:58am: We have had a very healthy pullback last night, bulls would have reloaded, like I did. 9200-9300 is not too much to ask today, if we overcome 9000. Dow watchers are not selling any more, watching to buy above 9050, well, they tend to trade on breakouts. Hourly macd has crossed to the lowerbank in the upstream moo river (link up the three recent lows) and there is plenty of upside there. Hourly rsi at 53 is not too demanding either. Bears need to keep an eye on the weekly rsi downstream moo river to see whether that upperbank which has held since May 2007 can be defended. But given the bounce on macd from such an oversold position, I don't think it can be defended this time. We will see. A falsification of that ginormous downstream moo river will signal a change of paradigm, to a temporary bull market at least. These two weeks are very significant ones, I am sure bears will want to have their say as well, perhaps tomorrow, where bulls' conviction and confidence will be shaken a bit by an inner fear! On the weekly chart, above 8600, this is a no bear land, so no defence at all, until 9300. A breach of 8580 will bring many a bear out to play.
8th December 2008, 20:42pm: The same applies to dow as well, we have broken a significant resistance line today and we are headed towards 9300-9500. it is the bullish momentum that matters.
7th December 2008, 12:23pm: Same here, above 8800, the path to 10200 shoud be a fast and ferocious one, but failing that, we are headed for some key resistance on rsi and macd. The three jabs down along the lowerbank on daily chart must indicate a significant bounce towards the upperbank at 10200 at the moment. This coming week will be a key battle week, the week of Dunkirk battle has begun between the bulls and bears. Be ready for a ferocious battle!
6th December 2008, 18:32pm: Let's have a look at the moo rivers as well for Dow. Weekly: Above Above 8600, it is no bear land until 9300 main bear camp and then 10000 (MA20). If you are a bear, you really don't want to be caught in a mega rally, which could come thick and fast, with shorts seeing hundred of points loss in a matter of minutes, be warned and be careful. Conservative bulls might want to buy above 8700, while more aggressive bulls might be interesting to defend 8500; 8350; 8100; but certainly not under 8100, which is the key bull camp. Monday is the key as well, a quick Sunday night drop below 8580 could possibly see a bearish week, meandering below there and 8100. On balance, I will be more aggressively bullish on ftse while taking it easy on dow, buying only near those key support levels as identified. MACD is still outside the lowerbank of the prevailing downstream moo river, oversold, perhaps, while rsi is yet to touch the upperbank in the ongoing downstream moo river.
Daily: There is triple correlated bullishness across chart, macd and rsi as well. Last week, I highlighted the possibility of a ginormouse downstream moo river, with 9300 level only as the middle point of this giant river and 10500 as the upperbank. I have also drawn a crossing moo river by linking the lows on 21 Nov and 5th Dec and P against the tops to form the crossing upstream. On that one, once we are over 8700, it is no bear's land and we go straight towards 9300. A breach of 8100 will see us much lower, e.g., 7300.
Hourly, there was that bullish engulfment on Friday, a breach of 70 hourly rsi could see a much stronger bull run. It is obvious that there is an inverted head and shoulder pattern there the world over are watching with great interest. Head: 7500; Shoulder: 8850; extension will go at least to 10200, wow, how bizarre!
Weekly: There is no denial that there are ginormous downstream moo rivers going through across chart, macd and rsi. But at this very moment, the momentum is still upwards, macd is bouncing off the lowerbank, rsi is yet to reach the upperbank and stoc is W shaped in a bullish crossing. All bode well for the bulls supporting this Santa rally. Of particular interest is a pair of correlated W on rsi and chart between Week40 and Week 42. They did not bring an immediate bounce as the market overdrove in that bear run. I would expect this current bull run will be at least higher than the top of the W there which is near 1010. Daily: the ma20 is supportive on the chart. rsi has broken through a downstream moo river, very significant!!! and macd is still bullishly crossed, so is stoc. If there is a Santa rally, it is the coming week, well, it is almost like stating the obvious truth. Key supports are 850 main and 830 and key resistances are 906 main, 960 and 980 and finally 1010. Santa will come to town, that much is for sure.
On the weekly, we are touching the para sar dots at the moment, which are still red. In fact, while other indices have been enjoying a series of greend para sar dots for weeks, ftse has lagged badly behind. RSI has a possible M there, and some little room to touch the lowerbank of an upstream moo river. MACD is still meandering upwards in an upstream moo river. Momentun Indicator is waning a bit and Repulse is still going strongly upwards. Overall, it sort of confirms my belief that this Stimulus/Budget rally has not finished yet. It seems that rather than shooting up quickly, FTSE is biding its time meandering across in an upstream moo river on price chart.
Daily: the most interesting indicator is rsi again, it has two possibilities, one to shape up a W against 47ish or bouncing off against 40ish.
Hourly: we have dropped out of a triangle this morning and now trying to get back into it. We need to break 4010 proper to resume the rally. Maybe, we are just meandering between 3900 and 4100 roughly, where both bulls and bears can make some good money at the moment.
14:38pm, 19th April, 2009: Yearly: very bearish all over the place.
Quarterly: still bearish, well stuck in downstream moo rivers, though some momentum indicators are trying to bend up, while price is resting on lower bollinger band.
Monthly: We can almost call the rsi has shaped up a W there, though oddly shaped. Otherwise, it is not very bullish there either.
Weekly: for weeks, bulls have camped and partied here, as the most bullish encouragements are here all over the various charts. At this stage, FTSE seems to have gathered enough momentum to quicken its pace North. Very strange, as other indices seem to be topping, is it too late for FTSE to catch up now or is it simply part of the plan to fool many?
Daily: I know this is going to be controversial. But we are looking quite bullish and a move towards 4230/4330 can not be ruled out this coming week.
23:13 pm, 16th April, 2009: Quarterly: if there is any chance of seeing 4600, this must be the quarter for it, as I think we might have seen this quarter's low near 3836 for now. A few of the momentum indicators are bending up, but it is still very bearish.
Monthly: This might be the most bullish month of all, getting close towards 4400/4600, once we have been there, the only way is down. Watch the monthly rsi, it is possible that we might see the lowest level for 2009 at a bullish convergence on its way to shape up a W (use parallel against 2002/2003 low will help you to see this better, to shape up a potential upstream moo river on monthly rsi. It looks like we will reach the highest point in May and come down from there in June and we will reach the low in September or October 2009. Momentum indicators are mostly weak.
weekly: here, we are in full swing of bull parties. On price chart, we are stuck under 4100 in a triangle with a lowerbank of 3720/3770 maximum. Momentum indicators are in their most bullish configurations. But there is still some headroom left there.
Daily: tomorrow, we might use 4040/50 as support to bounce up and through the 4100 key resistance towards 4330, maximum downside is 3950/3900, under which bulls might run for the exit in a stampede. Still, it is possible we might meander under 4100 and above 3900/50 in a triangle for a few more days. Momentum indicators are strangely configured, apart from rsi in a possible W shape.
19:08pm, 11th April, 2009: Quarterly: the momentum indicators are trying to bend up, but the bearishness is still weighing down heavily. In terms of the chart pattern, there is potentially a triangle there, which is a continuation pattern. The lowerbank is near 3600 and upperbank near 4630 this quarter, a break of either will be signficant.
Monthly: Momentum indicators are bending up, but without as strong a rally like Dow and Dax, the W's are not shaping up properly. The price chart has almost a morning doji star or morning star sort of bullish reversal candle pattern, but it needs to get above 4340 to add more convincing support for this scenario.
Weekly: this is weakest link in the global indices, deep in the throes of the bear market. We are touching upperbanks in downstream moo rivers on momentum indicators, this coming week is a critical week for ftse100. We need a big lift somewhere to lift the doom and gloom.
Daily: we are in an upstream moo river reluctantly, with a very ignorable rising angle. It needs to get as close to 45 degrees to be a healthy bull run. Something is suffocating the ftse and it has not joined the global rally so far. There are various key resistance levels, 4050, 4100, 4180, main, above which we will be flying high.
4 hourly: We have got a V rally here, at least in terms of the momentum indicators.
FTSE has really hidden its hand behind its back, which is really difficult to read. I can't really see clearly as the moo rivers are really murky and clouded. Maybe, after the Bank holiday Monday, things will become clearer.
07:30am, 7th April 2009: please refer to the chart pattern watch below, the target for having gone through that bull flag is at least 4340ish, so any weakness is to be bought by me for now. I will only consider turning into a bear once we have seen 4350/4450 first. That bull flag's lifeline is 3900 and the lowerbank for the upstream moo river on daily is near 3950, so it is between these two figures that we might bounce up. If there is a test near 3870/3800, then we might be shaping up a head and shoulder reversal pattern, a break of that neckline will cheer up many bears. While the triangle on daily might still have some room for meandering, the upstream moo river on daily has very little tolerance from current levels. So we are due to ask some key questions today. Bulls need to defend 3950/3900 lifeline and try to break 4150 bear stronghold and try to reach into 4300's. Always have a plan B. It is just my gut feeling that while we are riding on the back some bullish momentum, market around the world wants to ask the key question: have we seen the low of the bear market? That on ftse will be answered, if we reach as far as into 4700/4800. Otherwise, we might meander here for a long while yet.
23:18pm, 6th April, 2009: well, it is a bear friendly day, which is nice for a change.It has almost achieved my weekly low for ftse100 near 3950, now I have reloaded longs ready for a rise towards 4250ish or 4400ish in the coming few days. Tomorrow should be a dramatic day, with further residue rise on Wednesday morning and from then onwards, it is all bear friendly days. We are playing out the daily triangle, above 3950, we stay quite bullishly poised for a dramatic rise.
11:15am, 5th April: Yearly: we really hit the lowerbank on Momentum Indicator itself, no sigh of bullishness yet there.
Quarterly: we have kicked off a bounce there, but not yet tested by time. On price chart, you could say we are stuck in a triangle, remember triangle there might be a continuation pattern, so still bearish there at the moment, no W's there either.
Monthly: I have drawn too many lines there. There is a tentative W on rsi, which is nice to have. We are in our second green candle, three in a row will be significant.
Weekly: the W on Momentum Indicator is so beautiful that some long waiting bulls might be in tears of joy at the sight of it. But on price chart, we are hitting a significant upperbank or midline in the ongoing downstream moo river. The congifuration of the momentum indicators seem to suggest that there is more to come.
Daily: we are hitting the upperbank in the upstream moo river on macd and we can say that we have ginormous upstream moo river on daily as well (drawing posted on III last week). We are closer to the lowerbank than the upperbanks, so there may be more upside to come yet.
Hourly: key support 4000/20 and 3900ish. There is a beautiful W on stoc and a V bounce on rsi.
Trading plan for me for week 14: buy until we reach somewhere near 4350/4400 and turn into a bear from there onwards, until we get near 4050/4000, as simple as that. I am ready.
08:12am, 3rd April, 2009:I draw your attention to the upstream moo river on hourly ftse chart. I posted the details for the drawing on III yesterday. It has crossed the midline and now will try to get to the top of the top upstream moo rivers, somewhere near 4400/4500/4600, depending on when we hit it. I draw your attention also to March 25th, when we had a full crossing from upperbank to the lowerbank, crossing the midline then. This is a reverse process in place. Despite a need to regurgitate yesterday's Wave 3 up, but Wave 4 is normally a shallow one, as the fall from the end of Wave 5 is the real McCoy. It will be either 4250/4330 or 4400/4600, somewhere there where we will stop this whole run and have a proper regurgitation. I also want you to have a look at the weekly Para SAR, then you will realise this bull run will not finish until a few more weeks yet. April looks like a month for bulls while May and June look more likely to be bear months. So if you are a bear, you should limit your ambition for this month and bide your time.
06:48am, 3rd April, 2009 (last working day for UK tax year): some healthy pullback is expected, so I have placed some limit orders near fib levels, top two for 4400/4500 and bottom two for 4200/4250. See how it goes. We are not done yet.
22:18pm, 2nd April, 2009:Monthly: we are having a second green candle here, so at least the bear pressure is off for the whole of April. If you look at the 30 year chart, the monthly seems to say a rise towards 5000 is not really out of the question. Obviously, if that happens, all the bears will come out hybernation, as shorting from 5000 will the easiest money to be made this century.
Weekly: momentums are bullish, particularly with a nice W on Momentum Indicator itself. A rise towards 4500/4600 is not really out of the question here. We have a low of 3747, and the biggest weekly ftse range is about 700 points, so that is 4447, almost 4500 there. This could be one of those strange weeks where volcanos erupt all over the world.
Daily: all bullish indicators there, with an upperbank near 4500 tomorrow in an upstream moo river.
Hourly: we have had a full crossing from a lowerbank to an upperbank, which is the midline of a ginormous upstream moo river, divided into two. The midline has been broken, so the uptrend should continue tomorrow.
Moo river trading plan tomorrow: limit orders near 4080; 4000 and 3900, last buy orders, aiming for 4400; 4500; 4600.
13:18pm, 29th March 2009:Quarterly: it is still very bearish there, though we are due for a midfall pullback, a bear market rally of a significant sort there, which is almost like a spring fairy tale, lasting into midsummer dreams.
Monthly: it is struggling to the bull side, but the evidence so far is not conclusive, with some very early shoots of bullish hope.
Weekly: among the global indices, this one is the least bullish, with very little confirmed bullish signs there. I am curious about the five down waves on weekly momentum indicator, which is currently in the fifth wave.
Daily: though we can say there might be an upstream moo river there, but the momentum indicators are rather weak. Maybe, FTSE is being pulled along by the other global stock markets, rather than having a bull engine of its own. While the other indices might go up and down more violently or energetically, ftse might meander in a narrow range for another week, a whole week of narrow range meandering is possible, though I can still see this ISA rally eventually reaching 4500 level.
06:42am, 27th March 2009: Market is looking for an excuse to regurgitate having had a good bull run. On FTSE, the particular problem is Barclays' silence on its Ishare sale and funding situation. Hence, while Barclays keeps its silence, the market could continue to meander between 3950 and 3800ish or tank down big to 3600 or 3700 level today. Given the situation with the global market, today could easily see some big profit taking by bulls, though there is a slight chance of market rallying to new highs, e.g., 4200/4250, very slight chance.
22:33pm, 24th March 2009: I have reloaded some longs in this pullback. The hourly upstream mooo river has remained intact so far and I am a bit surprised by the silence from Barclays, surely something is afoot now. We are lying on the lowerbank on the hourly upstream moo river, a breach there will destroy a well serving upstream moo river for bulls, which is obviously a shame. The market at the moment is getting a bit jittery, like a fly in the house, it hits this window and that window and just could not get out, even if you open the window for it. So it jabs and probes to find out resistance and support. After such a strong rally yesterday, the least resistant direction is obviously downwards. But we can not write off this ISA rally just yet. The important thing for tomorrow is that it will not meander, as it is a bank trade, either live or die. A breach of 3800 will take us quickly towards 3600; if we hold this upstream moo river, then a full crossing is also possible. While 4050 is hard to crack to start with, various other bull targets are still in play, 4100/4200 etc. I think a solution to the Barclays problem will at least lift the market towards 4050 to start with tomorrow, if that is when they announce the news. The whole world has taken a breather, but plenty of bulls have been encouraged by the rally. Greed is coming back into the market now. I can see at least some days of topping exercise, if we have really hit the final ceiling; if we breach these ceilings, we might shoot for the next one.
5:58am, 24th March 2009: We have hit a ceiling or an upperbank yesterday. Some pullback is expected. we can still use that weekly rsi upstream moo river as guidance, linking tops of W44 and 49 in 2008 to form the upperbank and parallel to shape the moo river. This one has given us the foresight for this current ISA rally. It is also possible that on the price chart, we have now shaped up a correlated upstream moo river as well. Today will be a difficult day, as we have hit ceilings everywhere all over the world, but these ceilings are only halfway lines in ginormous moo rivers. Failure here though is also quite serious. One more upleg today, we are into crossing the full moo rivers, with much higher targets. Obama talks today and I don't remember any of the occasions that he speaks that actually rallies the market, not even in the O Obama Hope Rally and O Obama honeymoon Rally--he tends to be the sucker for the rally, but we will see. Aggressive bulls might be buying above 3900 for continuous probing into the ceiling upstairs; more moderate bulls might be buying above 3800 for 50 to 100 pointer a go. Aggressive bears might want to load up all the way towards 4500/5000, at least, bears can say they have every reason to sell now that we have hit the ceilings all over the world.
21:48pm, 23rd March 2009: I have to remind you that on the monthly rsi, there is a W emerging there and last time we had a W there was at the beginning of 2003 and we all know what happened from that W, the end of the bear market for that one! However, I have to caution as well that last time we had correlated W's all over the indicators to end the bear market and we are not in that position just yet. But do watch out. On the daily chart, we have reached and breached one target there by getting over 4000 in one go, which is bullish. We could start counting the waves on daily, whereby we have not yet finished Wave 1 yet. In the end, the hourly not so sharp upstream moo river was a beauty and it has provided a possible crossing, which has not been finished yet. I would buy on dips and dives above 3800, under which it is bear land again, with a target of 4500 eventually or 5th April, whichever comes first. Mondays are notoriously difficult to get right, as it is in the making of many manipulative forces. We were all finding comfortable to predict the market for this market, it did take a bit to fall into this rally this moring, which cost some profit there.
Tomorrow is a key day, another rally would see FTSE breaking its downstream moo river on weekly rsi, which will be very important. I am just thinking whatever drops so hard might bounce up as hard as well. I think they have wrongfooted many a bear down there.
08:43am, 23rd March, 2009: with the strength of the rally so far overnight and this morning, I think this market has decided to leave as many bears as possible. The consensual view over the weekend has been too complacent, as most seem to agree that we will hav a pullback before we rally further to finish off this ISA rally. But time is running out, as 5th April is not too far away now. We need to make hefty headway today, if the overall target for this ISA rally is somewhere between 4500/4700. I won't be surprised if we achieve 4050 today, though there is still a slight possibility for a a breach downwards. Still 3950 is a very formidable barrier for bulls to cross.
06:28am, 23rd March 2009: Overnight, Asia has shot up, though it looks more like a trend exhaustion, rather than a new wave up yet. At this very moment, don't fall in love with the long side yet. FTSE needs to overcome 3920/50 to continue its ISA rally. I can't see it coming without a proper regurgitation towards 3700ish minimum. I am not selling, but I will be caustious about this initial rally. The hourly upstream moo river on ftse could be said to be intact, so a full crossing there is also a possibility, towards 3950/4050, which would obviously mean that we does not go for a regurgitation and has continued the ISA rally. I still think the market is trying to trap some bulls here, but I might still want to fall for it. I am certainly not selling, before April 5th or until we have seen a figure above 4000, whichever comes first. If we do turn higher than 3950 today, then this ISA rally's target will be in the region of 4250/4500 minimum. It will be a crucial day today. Perhaps there is plenty of buy on rumour and sell on news going on there in the market. Still, I can see plenty of upwards momentum during the morning session, and some volatility in the afternooon, either big up or big down in the late session. It will be a very interesting day today.
14:52pm, 22nd March 2009: FTSE100: On the 30 year chart, the monthly candle is an indecisive doji so far and momentum indicator is shaping up a possible W there and rsi is trying to bend up to a W as well. Other than that, it is still bearish. The thing that puzzles me is that how likely it is that we will launch an attack on 5000 before another showdown between bulls and bears. But will the ISA rally go that high in the current climate or could it for some other reasons?
Weekly, we have had a green candle followed by a doji last week. The momentum indicators are not indicative of what it is going to be just yet. As long as we stay below 3950, then the downward jabs will continue.
Here is my trading plan for the coming week: I will set two limit buy order at 3720 and 3670 for 50 points everyday till Tuesday night, where I will be holding my longs for a rise towards 4100. I think the early pressure is downwards, but could rebuy at 3860 for another 50 pointer. On the daily, the market has hit the upperbank four times in a row last week and if that is not the ceiling for now, what is! If it gets over 3950, I will be interested to buy again for more. So to sum up, get ready for two days' downward moves on FTSE where scalping with limited ambition is required and hold longs for a late week rally into next week. Obviously, we need to remain flexible as the moo river never stays the same
06:30am, 13 March 2009: It has been a good week in terms of moo river watch and we got the bottom of the down wave and picked the start of the up wave. There are a lot of traders who are still trapped in the bear mode as this has been the longest running bear market. But it is time to switch to enjoy this ride, whether it is a bear market rally or not. I am buying on dips and dives towards 4000 and 4500.
On the daily, we have reached the upperbank in the downstream moo river on rsi and breached that one yesterday. A further rise there will be very significant indeed. We have just started to leave some permabears behind and the market will try to trap as many bears as possible. This ISA rally could be a big one, heading towards 4500 minimum and possibly 5000, depending on how many bears it is going to trap and leave behind. Today's Friday's 13th, so it can be very volatile or very hesitant. A small day trading range is likely to be 3700-3850; a volatile range could be 3700 and 3920, even 4000!
On the hourly, we are playing the mindgames there. We have left an opening gap due to rise overnight. We have a flat top on rsi and stoc. We seem to need to get back down to 3700, but we may not be, as somehow we have got back into the breached hourly upstream moo river now and we are in the crossing mode to the upperbank near 3920. Last night, it has made a new high and crossed a signficant bear defence. We might rally straight away from the open onto 3830 before taking a breather.
22:00pm, 10th March 2009: Finally, the market bounces up a little up as expected. Our weekly rsi upstream moo river could come back in play shortly, which will aid further upside. On the Weekly, the bears can really relax, only a firm breach of 4500 will ring some alarm bells amongst the big city boys. Under 4500, we are bear market as usual.
Daily:If you put a moo river bank under recent bottoms for the past few months since October 15th, you will realise you have just drawn a mother of all rallies lifeline for all bulls. This is where all the bounces relied upon and we have had bounces vertically or meanderingly for 1000 points a go twice already. This time, if we reach 4500, bulls will be chuckling. But I am a bit miffed at the quick erosion of daily rsi, it is almost hitting my upperbank, while daily stoc is supportive and macd is yet to turn bullish. Whatever happens tomorrow, we know it is going to be drama and lots of volatility because this market has woken up. I have two main possibilities, but I will play that out tomorrow morning. I will give it a good night's sleep on them. Hourly: we are not even in the mandering mode yet. We might yet try to challenge 3800 over night. I will take a step back and have a say tomorrow morning.
06:28am, 10th March 2009: for now, let's trade the downstream moo river on daily rsi, the only tradable moo river here. We are bouncing off the lowerbank towards the upperbank near 48, which should take us to near 4000 this week. For today, it will be a good victory for the bulls to test almost 3700 and build upon that tomorrow to launch an assault on 4000 this week. On the hourly, I have an upperbank on hourly rsi which has been kissed a few times and an upperbank on macd which has resisted any bull moves in recent days, so start drawing your moo rivers on those. We need to watch out for a breach of 70 on hourly rsi and then a pullback, and finally another sharp rise, if the bulls are determined to make their case against 3460, which has been holding firm so far.
I have looked over the 30 year charts, yearly, quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily etc. There is absolutely no sign of the end to the great bad bear market just yet! So if you are a long term investors, you have not missed the train, but it has not arrived in the station yet.
Weekly: That upstream moo river on weekly rsi was slightly breached, but it might still be valid. If you like triangles, there is a triangle on weekly 3480 and 3770. Let's work on this triangle this week, though there is a high possibility of a superhammer into 2003 low between 3200/3300, which also fits my simplistic EWT speculation about the bottom of Wave 3 down. While things are still looking very rosy for the permabears, I am seeing in my eternally optimistic eyes the possibility of a shaping of a ginormous upstream moo river on weekly. I will comment further once it has cemented its birth.
A second tradable moo river is on daily rsi, that one has hit the lowerbank and has plenty upside potential to hit the upperbank. The shaping of a W is also possible there. On the price chart, there is a triangle you might want to focus on and that one has quite a few days left in there. If we are not plunging big for a superhammer, then another week of modest expectation for both bears and bulls might be in prospect in Week 10.
The hourly bounce into the close might encourage some bulls to buy it up to 3750. Asia will be the key. I wonder whether China has further announcements to make before the end of its congressional meetings. If you are a bull, you must be prepared to take the hit of the superhammer. If you are reasonably leveraged, you might want to play bull and be stubborn at these levels. If not, a rise above 3800 will be a safer battleground for some bulls.
06:38am, 6th March 2009: this is it, I have made u my mind. Today, market will meander under 3700 and close around 3535. And next week, it might pop up to under 3700 again, but to plunge to 3200's to complete this ugly Wave 3 down and shape up a superhammer. So a Black Monday is to be expected under 3700.
21:58pm, 3rd March 2009: we have had our first green daily candle, which is encouraging to the bulls. We should go all the way towards 3900/4000 to complete the first big Wave up, unless we have decided to meander between 3500 and 3700 for another day tomorrow, until Friday's non-farm payroll from the US. The weekly rsi is still trying to withdraw into the upstream moo river and on the daily, the correlated W's are trying to emerge. It is all quite encouraging to the bulls so far.
06:08am, 3rd March 2009:Once we are over 3800, we might have found the legs to stand upon. Another spike lower towards my final limit buy order is possible, which will be nice. A week is a long week and the weekly rsi is withdrawing its toe back into that upstream moo river since W42 in October 2008. That is the only tradable upstream moo river for now. Whatever happens, we need to have one green daily candle to confirm that bears are taking off their shorts and bulls are rushing out with their horns. If you can handle the risk and pressure, there is never a better buying opportunity than this one. Still, be wary of my simplistic EWT, that one sometimes is too accurate to be ignored.
23:08pm, 2nd March 2009:if we have a green daily candle tomorrow, this should be the end of this down wave and we should be headed for 4500 in the medium term. I still have one more limit buy to be filled. It is basically a crossing in a giant downstream moo river on daily and it is almost touching the lowerbank now. This river is about 1000 points in depth, so a bounce here will be juicy, but manage your risks. If you are uncomfortable, switch off and buy above 3850/3950. I am quietly confident that the ISA rally will come in the not too distant future.
22:03pm, 1st March 2009: Key supports are: 3680; 3550 and key resistances are: 3850; 3980; 4150/4250.
14:28pm, 1st March 2009: While my simplistic EWT sometimes worked a wonder, I am going to disobey this one by staying a bull for now. I am looking for a superhammer into 3600's and a bounce of 700-800 points this week. This is highly risky as we do not have any upstream moo rivers to trade upon. If you a bull, you must be prepared for the high risk involved. My current forecast is very much dependent on the behaviour of the weekly rsi bouncing off a lowerbank in an upstream moo river, with a magnitude similar to that of week 42 in 2008.
Now here is an interesting trick for you. If you print out the daily price chart and fold that chart, you might see a mirrow image if you draw a vertical line on 10th Feb and use that to fold the chart, which will tell you that we are headed toward 4400/4500 in the not too distant future. I remain a stubborn bull, but there is no technical indicator to back it up. I say no more0
6:30am on 27th February 2009: I have identified two possible downstream moo rivers on daily price chart. The key bear resistance levels are 3880; 3980 and 4180; key bull supports are 3800; 3600; 3550. I have also drawn a downstream moo river on daily rsi, if you link up the top of 6th June and 6th Feb and parallel to form the river. While there is no outright bullishness in this market, i.e, no upstream moo river to trade. There is certainly a case of oversoldness, a bounce off the lowerbank of this rsi moo river to give us a bounce of a few hundred points to scalp. Key bullishness will only be brought about once we are over 4250. I am hoping for a Tax Year End ISA rally to come, though history warns that the last low of the internet boom collapse was in March!!! For today, it is very much dependent on Lloyds. I can't see much surprise there, though any hesitation by Lloyds to participate in the government toxic insurance will brings bears out in force. The minimum requirement for bulls to take heart is to overcome 3980, otherwise, we will continue downwards.
10:08am on 25th February 2009: it seems that the TYE rally is on, as it broke through two possible upperbanks in the downstream moo rivers on hourly price chart.
On the hourly rsi, we have managed to reach 64 yesterday, breaking through the bear ceiling at 60.
Hourly stoc has regurgitated over night to some degree
Hourly macd is testing an upperbank in a possible upstream moo river, if we can break through that, 4000 will be on the card and beyond.
As not many fund managers would have made any significant money to be cashed in before TYE to enjoy B&B this year, it is more likely they will be forced to put this year's isa money into the money and then do a reverse B&B after 5th April.
I know people are sceptical of rallies these days and the sell into spikes, rallies and gaps strategy is working well in these times, but I am buying on dips and dives here till 5th April, trading towards 4200/4500. Also hourly stoc made over 90 yesterday, which is significant, as you don't get that in a downtrend.
14:48pm, 24th February, 2009: It has been a good holiday for me, with no internet access in a little village in the Loire valley of France. But like they say, a week in the market is a very long week indeed.
Weekly: FTSE has come down tested and broken the weekly superhammer lifeline near 3950 last week and this week it bounced towards it and failed miserably on Monday. This is all very bearish and it is a repeated pattern for the past two years, big drop, superhammer, testing of superhammer lifeline, broken lifeline and further falls. The bears must be rubbing their hands, as the great bear market continues into 2009. A word for the caution for the bears is that weekly macd has broken a long ongoing downstream moo river, following weekly rsi and weekly stoc seems to be trying to shape up a half-hearted upstream there off the baseline. There is no longer any upstream moo river on the weekly price chart at this moment. What I see from the weeklies is that we are stuck in a range trading period, where key upperbank has not been tested and there is still plenty of room to fill in this range trading base. While that upperbank remains around 4500 for now, it is the lowerbank that is hard to determine. I have several possibilities: 3800ish; 3700ish; 3550ish (final). While the bears are in the driving seat on the weeklies, the bulls may be tempted to put up another fight. If yo are a bear, you keep on selling along that old superhammer lifeline near 3950/4000 zone and if you are a bull (which is a rarity these days), you either buy blindly like I do or buy until we break above that former superhammer lifeline, which is a safer option. The choice is yours and these are no times for the faint hearted.
Daily: We have lost those upstream moo rivers on the daily which have been so rewarding and tradable for weeks. Now the price chart is a complete mess with the downstream moo rivers appearing more obvious with possible lowerbanks near 3700 and 3550. Once we break 3950/4000, bulls will come out to play in force.
Hourly: No upstream moo rivers on price chart either, though once we break above 3900, bulls will be greatly encouraged.
06:28am on 9th February 2009: Moobears must hold their patience and watch out for the interaction on the triangular stranglehold upperbank near 4400/4600 zone. Judging by the behaviour of daily stoc, a sharp drop of 500 or 1000 points in one go is very much a possibility, towards the end of February (depending on when the market reaches that upperbank). If it breaks it, then it signals the end of the bear market, but somehow this is unlikely, as it seems now. At this very moment, we are in this upstream moo river to send all the bulls to the top of this roller coaster, then it shudders to a halt in mid air and then suddenly it drops to kiss the lowerbank of this rising upstream moo river, then it floods it in one go and holds above 4000, then all hell breaks out and we plunge towards 3500/3300 bottom. It is going to come thick and fast, either that or we shoot towards 5500. It is very much a story of when the other shoe is going to drop, but you must be patient! Either you don't trade until it interacts with that vital upperbank or you ride it in your own way to pick up some points along the journey to the top! It will be very similar to what happened last July/August, when I was on holiday as well. So funny enough, the market might wait until I return from France to show us its true colour.
Watch the behaviour of daily stoc, as long as it holds above 40/50, the bull trend has not finished. If it regurgitates all the way to the bottom quite quickly without price destroying the upstream moo river, and then a quick rise to the top of the upperbank by rising quite quickly on stoc, it might tell us the top is in and a big fall is to follow. Scalp whichever way you like, but don't go to sleep as the big tide will be coming soon, perhaps until Trigger returns!
13:38am on 8th February 2009: Weekly: we have had a second green candle, which is encouraging for the bulls and macd is almost meandering out of the downstream moo river and rsi is bending up too, but stoc is bearishly crossed against the upperbank of an upstream moo river. Overall, it is more bullish than bearish for a bear market rally to continue. The weekly top could be made between 4460 and 4650. The interaction between the weekly candle and ma20 line is NOT so strong, prescribing a slightly higher high this week, perhaps near 4460/4500ish and then to topple down again. Weekly superhammer lifeline is near 3930, which has not yet been challenged.
On the daily: there are several upperbanks in the upstream moo rivers. We are kissing upperbank 1 near 4330; upperbank 2 is near 4420 on Monday and upperbank 3 is near 4526, which is the key apex point formed by the crossing point between the triangular upperbank and the upperbank 3. But is is more applicable on Tuesday, rather than Monday. I am guessing the weekly will be made near 4520ish on Tuesday and the fall starts on Wednesday. Along those two upperbanks, I would rather be selling than buying. The ultimate upperbank 4 is near 4900ish and the fantasy upperbank 5 is near 5500--pigs might fly then!
It is possible that the MMs may play the seesaw between dow and ftse, one flying and another caving in, very odd couple, but it could happen next week.
Watch out for hourly stoc
06:26am on 6th February 2009:Thursday is always the confusion day and I was briefly confused by the bears yesterday as well, as the fall on dow became quite dramatic. It is easier to be an analyst than to be a trader.
We have managed to break 4250 yesterday, but we still need to break above 4350 to confirm that there is much more upside to come. On the daily, we can not completely discard the 5 waves down scenario just yet, until we break above 4350. Initially, we have a nice triangle to play with, the upperbank is near 4303ish and the lowerbank is near 4226ish, a breach of either will be followed through by bulls or bears respectively. Downside should be limited above 4150 or at least above 4100ish, a breach of the latter destroys the bull run altogether. I am a moobull above 4100, though I might scalp a bit in the morning either way. The initial target is for hourly stoc to recover from its over-exertion yesterday, so there will be some downside to start with, despite a possibility of a quick spike up and then tank. Overall, in the morning, I will sell into spikes but lay some limit buy orders for some rallies once the over-exertion has been digested on hourly stoc, targeting perhaps 4440 and 4600ish today.
06:38am on 5th February 2009:so far so good for the moobulls this week. Let's take a look at the moo rivers.
Weekly: as long as we hold above 4050, we can see the weekly target being 4290 ma20; 4440; 4606. Watch weekly macd to break out the bearish downstream river and rsi to recover towards the upperbank in an upstream moo river. We could be in for a big moobull week here.
daily: very tradable moo river here, for the upstream moo river to hold moos, there is a tight triangle for you to trade, we need to either hold 4070 or break 4250. Anything else, the 5 waves down downstream moo river is still live and kicking. Today will be the day for a decisive move. Daily rsi is hugging the lowerbank of its upstream moo river, having withdrawn into the river yesterday. Stoc and macd are bullishly crossed. The massive rally could be today. There are various targets for the upside, though we must hold above 4050 today. The targets are: 4240/50; 4313; 4410; 4500; 4560 and 4613 ultimately. It won't happen in one day.
Hourly: it would be ideal for the moobulls if we hold above 4140ish this morning. The hourly rsi has maintained above 40 so far, which is pleasant and I think the lowerbank is sort of holding. So if we do go up, it might be a big one, as it just might get into 70's again. If we breach 4140ish, then we go back to test the daily upstream moo river and hourly rsi could go as low as 24, which will affect the bullish momentum, as we have to re-establish the trend again. But I am a moobull above 4050 and I am up for it. It is so tradable that every trader will be on it, as it is stuck in the tightest triangle ever, 4050 or 4250, a breach of either give either party a huge rally. Game on.
06:18am on 4th February 2009: Overnight, there has been a correlated M on hourly FTSE chart and rsi, so we have finished one wave up away from the lowerbank. From here, one could see two possibilities: one for a further wave up to test 4250ish key resistance or it rises straight towards 4400ish upperbank, to complete the full crossing. It is hard to see the second scenario to happen without the support from the yankies. But on the hourly rsi, I am either looking for 72.5 or 44ish, as we don't yet know the angle of this crossing towards the upperbank. I remain a moobull until we reach the upperbank, though 4600 is not out of the question, if we decide to have an overflow. At the open, ftse should open 14 points lower due to dividend adjustment, so there is still a small gap there at the open from the current futures cash price. Overnight, Asia has been positive though. On the daily, ftse is much stronger than dow, much more bullish, as both daily candles' bodies are inside the lowerbank of the upstream moo river. Our condition for the upstream moo river still holds fimr. Just need to break 4250 to confirm a major rise towards 44/4600 is on the way. Moobulls must be getting quietly excited.
06:48am on 3rd February 2009: FTSE is very much tradable in terms of moo river trading. There are now clear moo rivers both on daily and hourly, the latter is the most useful to daytraders. If you link up the tops on 19th Jan and the recent top, you would have the upperbank and link the bottoms on 23 Jan and yesterday's, you will have the lowerbank. We have had three crossings so far, 300-400 points a crossing, which is fantastic. I am going to aim for a full crossing again, near 4400, though I am fully expecting a breach on the upside towards 4650ish again. As a rule of the moo river trading, it is all subject to the lowerbank holding firm. Make sure you have a plan B. I am cautiously optimistic that this is the moo river that the dominant one, with the huge dividend payout this week.
23:21pm on 2nd February 2009: Shockingly, the FTSE dividend site has just been updated and this week is a huge dividend day, no wonder FTSE is holding firm above 4000. At least, that meets one of the two criteria for the upstream moo river, but I have to say at this moment, every bull is hanging onto that thin thread of hope, Obama hope.
weekly: one interesting fact for the moobulls is that weekly macd is meandering out of the ginormous downstream moo river since July 2007, which must be a significant development. Weekly rsi is testing a lowerbank of an upstream moo river with a possible W shaping up, weekly stoc is bearishly crossed though.
Daily: I was expecting some safety play away from the lowerbank in our upstream moo river, but it has jabbed through it and little hammered back up and daily rsi did not oblige to withdraw back into the upstream moo river, which is disappointing.
Hourly: there is a very tradable upstream moo river there (almost horizontal), with an upperbank now near 4400ish, though 4250 is always a bear camp there. Hourly macd has broken out of a downstream moo river as well. Make up your mind time!
13:28pm on 1st February 2009: FTSE100 (cash): I have finally found the origin of this ginormous downstream moo river on weekly chart. It started in January 2006, that is exactly three years ago. I feel a bit gutted not to have spotted this earlier. From May 2008 to Oct 2008, we had a full crossing from the upperbank to the lowerbank with 2730 points in depth. That is an aweful downstream moo river, with a big waterfull in between from September 2008. Now we are stuck in a cesspool of global recessionary fear, the water is murky with orange fear algae, very little sign of life in there!
While another jab at the lowerbank is always possible near 3600ish, the good news for moobulls is that it is more likely to bounce off this lowerbank and start the crossing towards the midline or the upperbank eventually.. In fact, we might have started this crossing already, though it is not time to erupt yet. This gives me more incentive and courage to maintain my moobull stance for now. The potentail breaching of the downstream moo river on weekly macd is encouraging on top of the breaching of the weekly rsi downstream moo river a few weeks ago. While fear is still rampant and reality is still ugly, long-terms bulls are waking up from hybernation and start to plan or act ahead of times. At least, last week we had a green weekly candle with a higher high and higher low, which is encouraging to the bulls, though we were hanging on towards the end of the week.
On the daily, rsi has broken through back into the former upstream moo river and is now lying on the old lowerbank, stoc has further headroom up there and macd is willing to cross bullishly to go up from here. I am a moobull for Monday, though the threat of further price weakness towards key support 4100/4050 is very much live and kicking. Below 4050 and 4000, you will see me going hybernating for a while, until we touch the weekly lowerbank near 3600/3800 again. Be ready for the worst scenario and be filled with an optimism that this key support level might prove too hard to break down this time.
06:38am on 30th January 2009:We have had a beautiful run from 3954 and we have achieved the weekly target of 4300ish and hit the upperbank 1 in that potential downstream moo river as well. Things are at a cross road now.
Weekly, it caved back down under ma20 near 4350ish which might be the utmost upside now and weekly stoc has bearishly crossed. The utmost potential downside for weekly chart is 3900.
All eyes must be on daily as there are the most tradable moo rivers. For the upstream moo river to remain intact, there are two conditions: 1. we reach 4450 upperbank 2;
or 2. we hold above 4040ish. Another rise and stalling hear 4300 is not bullish at all, it only confirms the upperbank 1 for the ginormous downstream moo river. The key question now is whether we have finished Wave 2 in the 5 waves down or Wave 1 in the five waves up as per my simplistic EWT speculations. At least, it is safe to say we can not rely on that daily W to give us further rises, as yesterday's fall has bent the right arm so much on rsi and chart that the correlated W's have been finished. We need to have a continuation W or V or potentially correlated M's will emerge to confirm the downside.
Hourly: If we break down through ma200 at 4130, the downside risk increases, pending a test of 4000/4050 zone. Watch out to see whether hourly rsi can bounce through 50/60 now to see whether the market intention is bearish or bullish. An early retest of 4250ish might be possible.
07:43am on 29th January 2009:We have had a beautiful run from 3954 to 4333, almost 400 points based on the correlated W on the daily. For me, that is not sufficient as my experience tells me that correlated W on daily normally gives a run of 500 to 700 points. After trending strongly yesterday, some range trading is expected today. The inner range could be 4350 and 4250 and outer range could be 4450 and 4200. If bears can manage to get the market under 4200, the bull run could be in serious doubt to continue. I am scalping today with 30-50 points a go either way, though more on the long side still above 4200. Below 4200, I need to have a serious reassessment, as it could be the beginning of the big 5 waves down, as per my Simplistic EWT speculation below.
08:12am on 28th January 2009: The most tradable moo river is on the daily chart, but weekly has upperbank target near 4330 and 4430. Let's gaze at the daily now. We have finally managed to overcome the former lowerbank 2 and currently upperbank 1 near 4230ish. The correlated W's continue to rise up in their right arm, so the bullish bounce continues. I am a moobull, buying on dips and dives and take profit as and when I see fit. If it stops at 4330/4350, then I am very worried, because that means we are stuck in a downstream moo river and we have just had Wave 2, pending a huge Wave 3 down. If we overcome 4330/4350 and goes all the way to 4430/50ish and reverses, I will be very happy then, as that means the downstream moo river scenario is invalid and we are in a widened upstream moo river. I can see some hesitation in the morning today, which means a bit of scalping for me for now. It is a pain that it is always Wednesdays that the trend starts to gather momentum, while I am a natural born scalper. On the hourly, we have had another hourly rsi 70, while regurgitation has maintained above 40/50, so that means this bull run has legs, all very encouraging for moobulls at the moment.
06:28am on 27th January 2009: Always focus your mind on the most tradable moo river and it is on daily at the moment for ftse100. The correlated W's are nicely shaped across chart, rsi and stoc, pending a bullish crossing for macd. It is all supportive for this current bull run. Given the strength of W, this might be Wave 1 for a 5 wave rally again towards 4600ish. I said earlier I remain a moo bull before 20th February, the end of the O Obama's honeymoon month in office. The key question this morning is whether FTSE can break 4230/4250, after that, bulls will focus their attack on upperbank 2 near 4350ish and ultimately upperbank 3 near 4410 to complete this Wave 1 rally.
19:50pm on 26th January 2009: it has been a perfect range trading day, as it came up from the lowerbank to test upperbank1 on the daily moo rivers and reached an hourly rsi 70 today as well, which might be significant. For now, the most tradable moo rivers are on the daily, so keep focusing at it. The momentum indicators are beginning to look supportive for a move to test the upperbanks as identified in the morning. I still remain a bull for now.
08:38 am on 26th January 2009: we did note that all eyes were on Barclays and they came out with a flyer this morning. Ths most tradable moo river on ftse100 is on daily again.
moobulls: if 4000 holds firm, then we go upwards to test out various upperbanks, upperbank 1 near 4222; upperbank2 near 4360 and finally upperbank 3 near 4410, key upperbank. If we get to upperbank 3, then we are back in the upstream moo river again. If we fail at the other upperbanks, then we are stuck in a downstream moo river. For today, a rally towards first upperbank is expected. Daily stoc is slightly wide, so this initial bounce might not be too strong. Observe the patterns of trading, to see how bulls lay siege upon the resistance levels and work out the possiblities of retrieval or break out. I will provide further comments later tonight. So far so bull, moooo. Just remember this week's key issue is whether we are in an upstream moo river or downstream moo river on daily. A breach below 3950 will be very bearish, signalling we are in a downstream moo river, where selling into rallies and spikes and towards uppperbanks is the usual strategy. For now, I remain a bull, buying on dips and dives.
12:38 pm on 25th January 2009: ftse100: it did not touch the weekly superhammer lifeline last week and this week, it is near 3880, which will be a key battleground. On the daily, the picture is still confusing. I have one ginormous upstream moo river, by horizontally extending the existing upstream moo river by one more lowerbank (yup, it is called creative bulling!) and I also have one downstream moo river shaping up as well. FTSE might be fighting every step of the way all the way towards 3700, unless 4000 holds this week, then we will be in a more bullish mode. On the hourly, under 4250, we are always bearish. But I remain a gritty moobull, though I could be said to be fighting on the wrong side, well, someone has got to be a bull, perhaps the last bull standing. We need to wait for a first breach of hourly rsi at 70 to signal a reversal of this bearish run.
07:01 am on 23rd January 2009: The daily rsi seems determinded to reach 30, which means there is potential for more downside, a challenge of weekly superhammer lifeline near 3900 is always a possibility. The trading pattern these days have been meandering before dow opens, shoots up towards the late session and caving back down overnight. I am still a moobull looking 4200 or 4400.
21:12pm on 19th January 2009: I am slightly frustrated to say the least, with today's movement. It adds an element of confusion to the moo rivers. We seem to have established two tradable moo rivers, one on the daily, which is upstream and barely holding above with the daily candle body closing above the lowerbank; one on hourly, which is downstream and there has been four rejections and bounces off this lowerbank already. I did cash in two of my longs this morning, but held onto the 4088 long, thinking this might be the one for the full crossing to the upperbank. So it has not been a perfect day for me as a moo river trader, but at least I have made some money and reloaded longs. I am still very much a moo bull, before the daily upstream lowerbank is properly breached.
In a way, it makes me laugh, as this is exactly the opposite of what happened last week, when market made new highs while I turned into a moo bear and finally caved in on Wednesday. Guess this is going to be exactly the opposite this week. I am still hopeful of an O Obama rally later in the week.
21:48pm on 18th January 2009: FTSE100 (cash futures): Weekly: we have had another red candle, lower low and lower high, got rejected from ma20, which are all very bearish. Weekly RSI is bending down as well and macd is touching the upperbank in a downstream moo river, though still bullishly crossed as stoc. On the weekly, just remember the weekly superhammer lifeline is near 3880 this week.
If you use the moo river trading system, you must go across the different time frames to find the most tradable moo river and use that to your maximum advantage. For now, I am staying focused on the daily upstream moo river, which has served us well since October 2008. The Friday's candle is an indecision, but for me, it held above the key lowerbank 2 near 4080. Stoc has reached the bottom, rsi is touching a potential lowerbank, so is macd, though both macd and stoc are bearishly crossed. As of my simplistic EWT speculation, there is always that increased amount of risk of a missing Wave 5, as we have had it good so far and the wave count could be slightly out of, e.g., by one wave. I am moved the former upperbank of the ginormous downstream moo river from last September to line up the tops of last week to form a potential a downstream moo river. So in this week, we are contemplating two possible moo rivers.
ongoing upstream moo river: as long as 4080 holds, then it might try to reach the upperbank near 4705, as per my simplistic ewt.
possilbe new downstream moo river: if we rally and fail under the lowerbank 1 near 4340ish and new upperbank just under 4500. The lowerbank for the potential new downstream moo river is near 3930ish. So watch out for those correlated WM's for further clues. But things could happen really fast and furious and there will be a lot of volatility. If you are unsure, best to switch off this week and trade after further confirmation. Trade or not, that is hardest decision for all daytraders. Let's be honest, action is thrilling and addictive.
8:32am on 16th January 2009: I think we have concluded the Wave 4 down to 4084 yesterday and now it is ready to rally. The key resistance is near 4500/4520ish, so it is important that the rally goes in the way that it will take a breath within striking distance below there, say 50/80 points off that key resistance and carves through it in one big 200 points move. We will continue to meander a bit today until late, because the chance of Wave 5 in our ongoing daily upstream moo river is more likely than a continuation of Wave 1 in a new downstream moo river towards 3980.
06:36am on 12th January 2009: FTSE100 is the one-time action man, so it meanders and gives out a lot of false hopes. But when it caves in, you blink, the shorting opportunity is gone. At least we will cross to lowerbank 1 near 4250/4300, though I suspect a challenge of lowerbank 2 is almost certainly on. It is possible for price to probe lowerbank 1 and bounce back towards 4370/4400 to give bulls some false hope, and even meander for a day or two between the this range and then finally plunge onto lowerbank 2. I am staying a moobear this week.
Daily: Please parallel to move the old upperbank from the ginormous downstream moo river from last September to link up the highs we made 6th and 7th Jan 2009. If we ever bounce up and touch this upperbank and fail there, we are back in bear market territory. For today, it is near 4565ish, because it might just change the daily upstream moo river to a downstream moo river, watch out for that!
19:08pm on 11th January 2009: FTSE100: I have looked at the moo rivers long and hard this week. There are others who are talking about a giant Wave 5 down towards 3200 already. Having pondered it over, I think we will trade the moo rivers as they come, rather than getting too much carried away with our fear or greed.
Weekly: We have had a red candle, but we have made a higher high and higher low. In theory, this is bullish, but it seems that ma20 on weekly is resisting the bulls at 4546ish and we closed below that level. Rsi has hit the upperbank of the downstream moo river, so did stoc and RSI has bent downwards. It fits our current reading of a downmove, whether for regurgitation as per my ewt count of Wave C of Wave 4 down move or an outright Wave 5 big down move. The problem with waves is that there are waves within waves and many different ways to start the wave counts. That is where I get confused slightly with EWT.
Daily: This is where the dominant and most tradable moo river has been and still is. So let's focus on the daily upstream moo river for now. It looks like this upstream moo rive since November last year has one upperbank which we kissed last week and two possible lowerbanks. The first test to the bulls is lowerbank No.1, which is just above 4200. So the question this week for the bears is to see whether they can breach 4200 and bring forth more downside. This is an area where I will cash two of my running shorts and looking to buy for some little bounces, until things become clear that this Lowerbank will be holding. If this lowerbank fails, then there is the key test of this whole upstream moo river just above 4000, a breach of which brings many bears rushing out and even I will be changing to a permabear then, selling into spikes and rallies. So let's watch out for these two key tests this week and get a trading plan ready to deal with the different scenarios. In the long run, the weekly superhammer lifeline is near 3840 for next week. The correlated M's are across chart, rsi and stoc. So at least, there will be a few hundred bear points to be gained, even though it is in this upstream moo river. It fits in well with my EWT count of Wave C of Wave 4 down move. Rsi is kissing the lowerbank too. A breach overnight shows the way for bears to make a bit more money this week. Stoc is bearishly crossed and still has plenty of downside. I am a moo bear to start this week, with selling into spikes and rallies. My initial guess is a test of Lowerbank 1 and a bounce towards 4400 and more tests of lowerbank 1 and more bounces until Lowerbank 1 is breached and then we are onto challenge of lowerbank 2 this week. This is just me talking about a very bearish week, in the vein of an upstream moo river.
!!!
21:28pm, 11th January 2009: A further look at the daily upstream moo river in line (close) chart reveals that the big M is against the upperbank there, which indicates this current downmove is very much a status quo within this upstream moo river. Also, Friday's red daily candle is a full blooded one with little tails either side, which showed full control by the bears. That will make me sleep better tonight and snore my bearish mootune all night.
Overnight, we might cave in towards 4300 and leave a gap near 4400 and by tomorrow open, we might bounce back trying to fill that gap, which would be an ideal scenario for gap filling traders. But it is possible that this particular gap will be filled next week.P>
6:39 am on 9th January 2009: FTSE100 futures: a breach of 4480 this morning will seal the start of the downturn, though 4550/4600 is yet to be there as the target for Wave B inside the Wave 4 downmove as per my simplistic EWT wave speculations. I insist on my 4250 daily lowerbank outlook for today.
Watch out for the big downstream moo river on hourly rsi which has a M against upperbank last night. Target 4400/4330/4250.
21:48pm on 6th January 2009: Let's focus on daily. The upstream moo river is very much in evidence, but its upperbank has held firm so far, against 4700. RSI has hit its upperbank as well now, stoc is shaping up a possible M, macd is still bullish with room to run. A break down below 4550 will bring some cheers to bears finally and a break of 4710 will be significant. I hate the fact that these moo river banks are being watched by many MMs. Every time, when there is a countertrend to start, it always makes a false break. For example, the last high of 4704 was made just outside the ginormous downstream moo river to give buls false hope and on 21st September, another fake break before a major dive. Markets are always so tricky, so moos need to be alert. I am always 70% sure that it will cave back down towards the lowerbank from tomorrow. Hold on for the ride.
07:43am on 6th January 2009: FTSE100: on weekly, we are tangling with ma20 and macd has hit the downstream moo river upperbank 1. Daily, rsi is memandering under the upperbank in the upstream moo river. stoc is M shapish at the top. Chart: it is kissing lingeringly at the upperbank of the upstream moo river. A breach of 4650 is highly bullish and a tanking down under 4550 will bring more cheers to bears. I am a moobear. Hourly: if we tank, we could hit hourly rsi 26. If we fly, hourly rsi could hit over 80. Make or break time!
11:58am on 4th January 2009: FTSE100: As a trader, you have to make timely decisions. From our Asian watch, we know the global theme for now is buy on dips and dives, but do you wait for the dips and dives or joint in some temporary shorting as well, against upperbanks in the upstream moo rivers. That is very much an individual decision. Even in an upstream moo river, buying upon upperbanks are not recommended.
weekly: Breakouts are everywhere, and the breakout on chart is significant or almost surprising strong, as it touches ma20 major resistance and broke one key upperbank from from October 2008 as well. Aggressive bulls may want to buy above ma20 level, e.g., 4640 for a test of 4800-4900 major resistance. Aggressive bears may want to sell all the way up to that level or against ma20 resistance towards 4370-4400 support.
As I said time and again the most tradable moo river on ftse is the daily upstream moo river, which are divided into two possible sections, restrained by a medium term triangular upperbank just under 4800. If you look at the daily candle on Friday, it has reached the upperbank and it somehow managed to withdraw its body within the upstream moo river, almost suggesting the upperbank is resisting any further upmoves. RSI is also hitting an upperbank. If 4600/4630 holds, then we cross over to the lowerbank to maintain the healthy upstream moo river, with lowerbanks near 4200/4150 or 4030. A daily of more than 200 points will signal that this downward crossing has started. The top section of the daily upstream moo river if you parallel and link up the 4704 top will give you an upperbank near 5180, though in between there are many other resistances, such as ma200, the triangular upperbank and so on. It won't be a smooth journey up there. In an ideal upmove, I would see this lower section of the upstream moo river which has ruled so consistently from 25th Nov to continue, so that this week will see us coming back to test out the lowerbank support in the 4200/4300 zone and gradually rise up again towards a final terminal top at 4704 again later into January. If we get into the top section of this upstream moo river, many fund managers will be scratching their heads and scramble onto the bandwagon towards an ultimate top near 5350 in February time, before we collapse back into the ongoing bear market again. It is all fantasy and speculation here, which is overruled by the moo river trading system, which says buy on dips and dives in an upstream moo river, only sell against upperbanks if you are greedy, as it has less probabilty for success and carries more risk.
The key question next week is whether ftse has finished a Wave 3 upmove or it still has some more room to complete this ginormous Wave 3 to 4816; 4890 and 4963 ultimately, before a Wave 4 regurgitation, see below Trigger's simplistic EWT for further details. For the record, I sold out all my longs before Friday close and shorted in the 4600 zone and am now expecting a drop to 4400 to start with and possibly finish above 4200 just. But if we fly over 4650 on Monday, I might change into a moobull again, which is always a difficult decision to catch Wave 3 to the top. Very volatile week coming up!
12:00pm on 1st January 2009: FTSE100: The sharp moo river on hourly has been broken, so we have widened the scope for action on Friday, the first day in trading in 2009. Judging from the moo rivers across macd, rsi and stoc and chart, there are two possibilities: 1. We will use 4400 as the key support to meander upwards in a slow fashion, with occasional jabs towards 4500. That is a more subdued trading range.
2. We will break down 4400 to test support in the key support zone of 4250 and 4300, where I have drawn the new lowerbank for this less sharp upstream moo river on the hourly. I am still a buyer, until the upstreams on daily and hourly have been broken down. A breach of 4200 will bring out many bears all over the world to short ftse100. For now, I am buying on dips and dives.
09:13am on 31st December 2008: FTSE100: Weekly: if you look at the weekly chart, it has a W to bottom up and then a continuation W, now passing the apex point at 4360. As long as we close the week above this apex point, there is hope for a rally in the New Year.
daily: we have had two strong green candles, macd is again bent over bullishly. And there is an ongoing upstream moo river. It should be buy on dips and dives until the upstream is finished, key test at 4580ish today, with support at 4403, 4348 and 4280 main.
Hourly: it is subject to a shallow pullback this morning. Hourly rsi 45 is one key support point. There is a sharp upstream moo river on hourly as well, if you link up the tops. 4550/4600 should be achieveable today.
20:43pm on 30th December 2008: The market is crystal clear to me, which is always a worry. The most tradable moo rivers are on daily chart. We are in an upstream moo river for short-term actions while in the medium term, we are stuck in a triangle, which prescribes that the market will not fall below 4000 before mid January 2009. For tomorrow, the upperbank is near 4580 and lowerbank1 is near 4200 and lowerbank2 is near 4010. Yes, it has two possible lowerbanks and two possible upperbanks, but the other upperbank is so far away, I am not mentioning it just yet. With the triangle crushing down upon the medium outlook from 4800ish at the moment. Into January, bulls and bears will have a fierce fight on their hand and I think the main ammunition will be results or rumours of results from the banks. It is all exciting stuff and we are in a safe mode of an upstream moo river, meandering upwards at about +30 degrees.
12:42pm on 30th December 2008: FTSE: I know bears are itching to sell while bulls are itching to cash in their longs, but not yet! Weekly: there is that little bit more upside on macd in the downstream moo river while rsi is almost touching the upperbank and stoc has further upside to turn to touch the upperbank. Chart has upside resistance at 4410ish and 4530 main.
Daily: the breakout yesterday was significant. It falsified a potential downstream moo river, while confirming the dominant ongoing upstream moo river. I am a bull for now, until we reach the upperbank near 4568 today. For it to reach the upperbank will be really ideal, as it will hit the hot spot of resistance near 4560ish. MACD has touched the lowerbank and ready to turn up again, rsi has shaped an odd W to come back into the old upstream moo river and stoc has a W there to bounce off the lowerbank. All very bullish there, could it be the last of the summer wine? Yes, but I am a bull while the upstream moo river is there.
This daily upstream moo river is the most tradable moo river for now. It has a core upstream moo river, with an upperbank near 4560 and a lowerbank near 4185 today and an expanded moo river, which has an upperbank near 5143 and a lowerbank near 3992 today. It will be a ginormous moo river, if the core moo river is expanded, meaning either side is breached. I might consider selling against the core upperbank when it comes to it if there is correlated M there, or just buy on dips and dives as long as the upstream moo river is there. I have not made up my mind yet!
07:10am on 29th December 2008: Nice hourly rsi W against a lowerbank. A breach of 4280-4300 will seal a breakout for the bulls, alternatively, a break of 4160-4200 will give bears a significant breakdown. I think I will stay bull for now.
20:50pm, 26th December 2008: Finally I have run out of patience with ftse100. I am seeing a Black Monday to test out 4000 next week early on and then a sharp rally back to 4550 tops. It will be a volatile week, after the sleepy few days because of Christmas holidays. Be prepared and get ready for some real actions next week.
11:33am, 26th December 2008: a similar story with German Dax. It is also stuck in a kiss not tell situation where weekly macd is kissing, rsi is touching the upperbank in the downstream moo river and stoc has turned positive, lying low on the lowerbank. A breakout is one possibility, while a breakdown should also be very tradable.
21:00pm on Christmas day 2008:
FTSE100: The final week of 2008 and many of us will be glad to see the back of this volatile deflationary year, where almost all of us may have seen many of our assets falling in value by a large percent. Anyway, let's get down to the moo river trading analyses for week 52, as there won't be any trading left for this year now.
Weekly: Let's be clear about that, we are still well stuck in our ginormous downstream moo rivers across chart, macd and rsi, so overall, we are technically very much in a bear market. Any rallies may not last for too long, until one day we break out of all the upperbanks, currently these long term bear market downstream upperbanks are near 4550; 4880; 5470 for next week. We have had another red candle on the chart, a lower high and a lower low as well, which continued last week's bearish run. RSI has finally bullishly crossed and rsi is still currently in an upstream moo river, though meandering along the upperbank and stock is bullishly crossed and has not yet hit the upperbank. Overall, it seems that there is still some bullish intent left in this market for now.
For the week, key resistances are 4360; 4410; 4550 main and 4650 ma20; key supports are between 3970 and 4030; 3830 main--weekly hammer lifeline.
Daily: chart is stuck under the paralleled upperbank from the old ginormous downstream moo river (from 1st September 2008). Have we started another downstream moo river? Still, I give it the benefit of the doubt for now, as price actions are contained within two possible upstream moo rivers, with lowerbanks above 4150 and 3970, as long as the latter holds, we are still in the upstream moo river.
macd is tangling perhaps slightly bearishly, rsi has broken through the upstream moo river, which is worrying for the bulls and stoc has almost reached the bottom of its range, which is encouraging for the bulls, as the end might be near. Overall, given the holiday period thin volume in trading, we might still have a few days of tight range meandering below 4280 and above 4150, until a breakout has to be decided.
Hourly: there are no regular tradeable moo rivers there, across chart, rsi and macd, though on the chart, I have a roof top shape, a flat triangle against 4200 with 4410 as its apex top. A breach of 4200 will be worrying for bulls indeed, as tests of 4130 and 4100, 4000 and 3950 can come in quick successions. MACd is flat, rsi is stuck 35 and 60. We meander on into the New Year.
09:18am on 24th December 2008: For now, the focus is on the triangle on daily chart, where we are trading within a tight range of 4300 and 4130, a break of either side will be very significant. With the holiday trading volumes, perhaps it is better to stick to scalping within the range and have a plan B for breakouot just in case.
21:53pm on 23rd December 2008: It does have that end of the year feel to this market with small range trading. At the moment, there are several conflicting views between weekly and daily. We go back a long way to the question whether history makes man or man makes history, it is that good old chicken and egg story all over again.
Weekly: MACD is still positively crossed and has room to go up to touch the upperbank in that downstream moo river. RSI is meandering in an upstream moo river, so is the bullish crossed stoc. There is definitely a bullish feel to these weekly momentum indicators.
Daily: this is where the worry starts. If you use parallel line from the old ginormous downstream moo river which was firmly breached on 8th December 2008, you will find the current price actions are staying beneath another potential downstream moo river upperbank. This is worrisome to the bulls, as furter consolidation under 4300 will strength the belief in bears that another downstream moo river may be in play, with lowerbank towards 3600 and more. While this remains a serious threat to the bull side, there is also supporting evidence on stoc, which should touch a bit lower yet and rsi has broken the upstream moo river yesterday and macd is almost bearishly crossed.
Bearing in mind this conflict between weekly and daily, I think we might just meander for this holiday period within a tight triangle, beneath 4300 and above 4130 for a few days. Only a firm breach of either side will bring out a full charge of bulls and bears, which is highly unlikely. So we meander and we scalp and pile up the points while we savour our favourite drinks, after all, it is Christmas eve tomorrow.
06:23am on 22-12-08: Old wise Billy McLaren's latest report made me rethink about trading in the next three months. I am now a bullbear, bull for anything under 4250 and bear for anything above 4400, though more tilted to the bull side in the longer run. Basically, I will be aggressively scalping both ways and turn into a permabull at the March low 2009!
18:28pm on 21-12-08: This is a weekly commentary on moo river futures trading on ftse100.
Weekly: We have had a red candle on weekly chart with a higher low and a lower high, which was disappointing for bulls. MACD is still kissing intensely without showing who is coming out on top, bull or bear. RSI is trying to breach the lowerbank of the ongoing upstream moo river there, Be warned! Stoc is still meandering in a positive way. Overall, this market is not showing its hand at the moment. I still think we are bullishly configured, if you switch to lowest on line chart, you will still be able to see the rising W there. We might see a continuation of this Santa rally next week, though increasingly we are running of triggers or multipliers for the next bull move. On the weekly, the supports are 3980; 3800 main; the resistances are 4430; 4550; and 4700 ma20 and 4830 max.
Daily: I did comment on the possibility of several upstream moo rivers there on the chart. But the sharpish moo river has been falsified by the dive on Friday. Because the moo rivers are drawn by the human being (me in this case), there are still two distinct possibilities. The most dominant one is showing a upperbank 4500 for upperbank and 4200 or 4110 for lowerbanks on Monday. A breach downwards bring in a key lowerbank at 3940, though I am NOT expecting that to happen. An alternative is if we can stay above 4200 on Monday, then there is a possible upperbank at 4704 on Monday, wow. We have to ask ourselves what if anything will be the momentum drivers next week. Interestingly, macd is almost kissing and not showing its true colour yet and rsi is kissing on the lowerbank in its ongoing upstream. Stoc has turned bearish, but that one can wait, I believe.
Hourly: A breach of 4200 brings up 4100 and a breach there brings 4000 and then 3900 main, triangular lowerbank. It will be a fierce fight and I will be fighting there at least every 100 points down.
Bulls scream out 'Can we break 4400?' and bears growl 'Can we break down 4200?'. It is yet another interesting week heading into Christmas.
07:48am on 19-09-08:Let's take a look at the moo rivers.
Weekly: the MACD kiss is rather a lingering one, which is frustrating for both bulls and bears. In this downstream moo river, with a W to bounce off the lowerbank, the MACD should turn bullish, but this is the day that it will show its true colour. We are half way to the upperbank, so if it is bullishly crossed, the upside will be a few hundred points. RSi is still lingering along the lowerbank in a quite sharpish upstream moo river. The bulls are holding their breath there, as the threat to break down has been there for the past two days. Stoc is bullishly crossed.
daily: I have to make another adjustment to the upstream moo river there to fit the chart or make it fit to the chart. Link up lows on 5th Dec and 18th Dec and Parallel to link up tops on 24/25 Nov to form the upstream moo river. Lowerbank is at ma20 4240ish and upperbank today is just north of 4700. MACD is tiring and almost kissing. RSI is lying on the lowerbank with not much room down there, before the upstream is breached. Stoc is bearishly crossed. I say we shall see 4700 today, at last!
20:48pm on 18th December 2008:Finally, I have recovered from vicious flu and the market has not been able to break 4400/4450 resistance zone, while it is still supported near 4220 support zone. As long as we close beyond 4150 this week, the Santa rally will still be on. Tonight could be that last clearout dip before the massive rally, or have most bulls taken their bets off the table because of the jittering Bush with regard to the auto deals. We need two announcements to come from Bush and Obama to rally the market and tomorrow they might choose to do so on a triple witching options expiry day. I am getting a bit bored with Dow for now, so won't trade that now, will only focus on being a ftse permabull until we have reached 4700-5000 zone.
20:00pm, 14th December 2008: this is a weekly commentary on what has happened during the past week and what might happen in the coming week.
weekly:
The world over are watching this kissing on the weekly macd to see which side comes out on top, bull or bear. Interestingly, Stoc has already bullishly crossed. And across the chart, macd, rsi and stoc, correlated W's are emerging, signalling more strength ahead. On the weekly candle, we have had a green candle, with a higher high and higher low, which is bullish. Key resistance is just under 4600, ma20 is about 4750, I think we might give 4800 level a crack this coming week.
Daily is looking a bit tricky here. On the chart, it is meandering along the lowerbank, supported by ma20, with a threat to tank at any time, and yet the upside will be surprisingly significant, if it comes to a bullish run. Last week, I have commented I have several possible upperbanks for upstream moo rivers on daily chart. At the moment, one is presenting itself as the dominant possiblity, if you link up the tops last week and Parallel linking up lows on 2nd and 5th December. However, I am not convinced, as one other lowerbank also holds, which suggests a higher upperbank. If we go under 4200, then this sharper upstream moo river will be falsified and the dominant one has a lowerbank just above 4050. Monday again will be a key day to determine which upstream is the likely possibility for the way forward. I remain a bull and buy on dips and dives above 4000. Stoc is a bit toppish. MACD is also meandering along the lowerbank, with small room for some downward jabs. Rsi is bullishly crossed and supportive, though it does look a bit tired. For Monday, all eyes are on 4400 to see whether that one holds down the bulls or not. Hourly, rsi has broken a downstream moo river. MACD may also do that. Stoc is a bit toppish, though with a nice W on top, which looks quite nice for WM watchers. On the chart, I am finding it hard to draw the moo river, though a drop below 4170 would bring up a test of the triangle just above 4000. All very interesting stuff next week. There is never a dull day in the market.
Watch them kisses closely and draw the moo rivers as diligently as possible. The market never stay still, so you can never step into the same moo river twice!!!
Key support levels are 4170-4230 and 4000-4050; key resistance levels are 4400-4450, 4580; 4710; 4830; 4950 key and final.
12th December 2008, 10:02am: two possible day ranges today, a smaller one between 4130 and 4430 or between 4180 and 4700. Take your pick, I am still a bull, but a bit hurt, as I misjudged the faltering bullish momentum on hourly indicators.
12th December 2008, 06:23am: bullish momentum actually collapsed at 9am on 10th Dec, since then, should have been better off sticking to my friend Gapster George's sell into rallies strategy, though at times, it might be quite scary as bulls charged many times against 4400 zone.
I will try to defend 4200ish; 4120ish; 4060ish main today.
That kiss on macd weekly seems to be a lethal one between bulls and bears.
There is still a long fighting day ahead. I am focused on ftse today.
11th December 2008, 21:28pm: Seems to have lost my mojo with scalping and only achieved 200 bull points today, well short of the thousand pointer. Could have been better, but at most, I reckon I would have made about 400-500 points today. It is just not one of those days. Tomorrow will be an interesting one. 4400ish does look like a good stopping point where a regurgitation could go to 4100ish to make George the Gapper happy. But I am still holding out for 4700 for ftse and 9000 for dow tomorrow.
11th December 2008, 20:38pm: looks like it has fallen into the downstream hourly moo river on rsi.
A breach of 4300 may indeed fulfill my friend George the Gapper's target to fill that gap near 4150. I have left dow alone now and will buy ftse only.
11th December 2008 19:58pm: not looking too bullish now, in fact, it is looking quite bearish now with a possible breach of a key moo river lowerbank, but I am not selling it, full stop. That is why I don't like trend trade, it never works for me. I am back to scalping now.
11th December 2008, 17:12pm: Hourly macd has turned bullish, should have more to come for both ftse and dow, need the vote soon!
A positive finish to the week, followed a sharp rally on Monday should do us all bulls proud. I am holding onto my longs like unopened Christmas presents now. Still, I hate trending trades, prefer scalping. Switch off the computer now, as there is not much for me to do. The more you watch it, the more jittery you get.
11th December 2008, 15:03pm: Are we on the verge of a breakout?
11th December 2008, 06:01am: the maximum trading range today is between 4188 and 4688; though a rational one could be between 4230 and 4430. If you are a bear, then you might consider defend 4430/4480; after that, 4570 and 4606; if you are a bull like I am, I am looking for W's between 4230 and 4280. Momentum has collapsed on hourly macd and rsi, so some weakness is possible early on. Bears, get your magnifiers set for M's and Bulls for W's. It should be straight forward and if you get lucky, today could be a thousand pointer day.
10th December 2008, 20:43pm: It seems to me quite clearly that FTSE is the leader of the gang at the moment. With the merger between HBOS and Lloyds TSB sorted out this weekend, there is only one way to go for ftse really. At this very moment, FTSE 15m macd has bullishly crossed, and dow is trying to warm up to the idea that we are going up.
10th December, 2008,08:08am, just to mention that on the daily chart, 4700 is the apex point of a ginormous W as well.
05:48am: Triangle on hourly has upperbank near 4540. macd and rsi on hourly are both supportive. Small pullback at the open is also possible. Bulls look to reload while bears have to wait.
Daily: ma20 is slowly bending up. I do have a few possile upperbanks, 4400-4470 is one;4606 is a main one; above there, bears run for cover; audacious upperbank at 4980ish.
Weekly: Look at the potential bullish crossing on macd, this will be very significant. It is a kiss to have serious consequences. We are showing signs of a triple correlated W across chart, macd and rsi. This is the most bullish technical signs we have this year. I remain a bull, buying on dips and dives, taking profits at leisure, depending on my greed. 4450 is the chart W's apex point, meaning a finish above there will bode very well for next week.
9th December 2008, 21:20pm: This is a well managed bull run or Santa rally, with every passing day seeing a higher high and higher low, which attract both buyers and sellers along the way. We need to see a parabolic rise before the bulls cash in their longs with satisfaction and bears may be allowed in for a slice of the cake as well. Tomorrow we might try 4480 and if we are in a hurry, then we might shoot up, but maybe there is still time on our hand, we can just gradually meander up. It seems that 4250ish is holding up the bull run at the moment. Somehow, in the next two days, I fancy to see 4747. I remain a bull.
9th December 2008, 08:38am: There has been a healthy pullback overnight. Yesterday, it hit our first target of 4340 and the next two targets could potentially be hit thick and fast, over the next 36 hours. I am guessing a rally to 4606 secondary top and a pullback towards 4250/4300 again, before a surprising further rally towards 4800-5000 area. I am a bull.
9th December 2008, 06:33am: Hoping for 4250 to provide support now and need to find a new moo river, as the old ginormous downstream is dead and buried now finally. I have got quite a few options at the moment, and will not be able to determine which one without an upperbank being confirmed with resistance, possibilities are 4600 or 4980, but we need to wait for the market to tell us which one is going to be the dominant one. Above 4100, I remain a bull.
8th December 2008, 20:38pm: When you keep on asking the reason for the rally and can not find any and the market still keeps on going up, you know it is a megabull run which has got legs. I am just so glad and relieved that that ginormous daily downstream moo river has finally been destroyed today. I absolutely hated it. I am drinking loads of brownies to celebrate the occasion.It does not really matter any more about the price and how far we are going to go, it matters that the ongoing downstream moo river is dead and buried and we have a new change of paradigm into a proper Christmas rally for many a day to come. I am buying on dips and dives.
7th Dec 2008, 12:08pm: I need to form a good habit of a weekly look at the long term chart, e.g., over 30 years. Both macd and rsi are telling that they are going to face the critical upperbank of a very long term downstream moo river soon and the space for the upside is rather limited. At the same time, on the price chart, it is saying that a challenge of 4800-5000 zone is a distinctive possibility for pirce exhaustion. From there, we can gather two speculations:
1. there is a new paradigm shift, i.e., a shift from the ongoing bear market to that of a bull market, which will demand both macd and rsi to break the key upperbank;
2.Business as usual, i.e., the bear market continues, which means that after this latest rally, we might see further lows in terms of the prices.
I am not sure where I stand there, we have to wait until we see the reaction of macd and rsi at these upperbanks. It is just saying that don't get carried away, be alert and nimble as a major change may be coming our way.
06 Dec 2008, 18:00pm: Let's have a look at the moo rivers.
weekly:
RSI: the week before, we broke a downstream moo river, this past week, we have managed to stay above the upperbank of that old downstream moo river. Though price has not move higher, but the bullish momentum is gathering pace, so is macd, which is showing a potential W off a lowerbank in the prevailing downstream moo river. A bear market rally is the least we are looking at and it should continue into the New Year. On the weekly chart, resistance levels could be as follows: 4280; 4340; 4480; 4606 (key resistance);4800 MA20. Let's stop here for now. Support levels could be: 4030; 3770/3800; 3640 (main lowerbank). A weekly range between 4000 and 4600 would be quite nice for the bulls. Under 4000, the bears roar with laughter. Bears really want to keep ftse under 4280 or 4450, otherwise on the weekly chart, it could shape up a massive W, which will be highly bullish.
Daily: The disappointment for the bulls are as immense as the bears, as we failed to break the ginormous downstream moo river since September. We kissed the upperbank twice in a week and no love was returned, what a rejection. This sometimes could be quite fatal for the bulls. Under 4000, bears will have a full conviction that the downstream roars. While we could say we have a triply correlated moo river across chart, macd and rsi, rsi is still supportive, bouncing off a lowerbank but macd looks a bit tiring and almost terminal. And again, when the last time we had a bailout decision for AIG in September, we were kissing the upperbank of that ginormous moo river as well. More hesitant bulls might want to join in above 4300. Sometimes, the entry prices may not be the best, but if you get onto the right momentum, there is still plenty of money to be made.
Hourly: there is visible triple correlation there as well, with macd showing a nice W there and rsi is near 60, the recent bull failure level, but it is not overbought yet. Once we are over 4280-4300, we will be hitting over 80 hourly rsi, before a regurgitation, which might be from 4500ish. Sunday night will be most interesting with the Chinese market looking to rally into the New Year and Chinese New Year above 2000. Monday is the key, it might just start a trend and continue in that direction for the rest of the week.
06-12-2008, 06:12:08am: Another solid week of trading as a bull. For next week, I will still be buying on dips and dives above 4000, below there, no trading at all.
5th December 2008, 19:58pm, 4000 holds, just, which is nice, bull points bagged again today. Let's watch that daily dowstream moo river carefully at 4210, a break there will bring us ample chances for trend trade. The final hour will be very interesting, as I was expecting the bears to come out to play, though I am still very much a bull.
5th December 2008, 07:28am: key resistance at 4210 and key support 4010; a breach of either will bring us a trend trade of at least 200 points. Because I am bullishly biased, so I am looking for at least 4350 today. I can't see us go past 4616.
4th December 2008, 21:32pm, There is no further question to be asked on ftse, apart from the one whether the daily downstream moo river can be destroyed once for all, above 4250 should do it tomorrow, if not, can 4000 be defended by the bulls. There is simply no point in saving money any more with such a low interest rate. So what do we do with our dosh now?!
4th December 2008, 20:38pm, finally the inability for the bulls to push through key resistance has been punished by bears in a big fall tonight, just before the unemployment data tomorrow. The only thing that is going to save the bulls is any whiff of an announcement about the auto deal, if not, then we are headed down a big way. I have had my last order in just now, below 4000, absolutely no trade for me as a bull.
4th December 2008, 18:08pm: Well, some useful bounces off support and resistance there. 4250-4300 is the bear camp and there is no doubt about that. We are still meandering waiting for a break out somewhere. On the hourly chart, we can see ftse100 wanders like a car on the snow covered road, it is very slippery and the car goes this way and that way, without touching either boundaries of a ginormous triangle. Guess tomorrow is the day.
4th December 2008, 07:23am:The snow is so beautiful and I get a bit carried away. If we get above 4280, then we will havea ginormous weekly W to play with. Even though we have come back down a bit, we have managed to stay above the main daily downstream moo river upperbank, but still within the vacinity of a secondary upperbank which has rejected any bull approaches so far, holding up firmly on three occasions, on 19th Sept, 4th Nov and 28th Nov. The bears are still very convinced and very strong, though underneath the snow, the ice is cracking, just for the bears to fall into the rapid of a bullish moo river, which is yet to emerge. I still remain a bull. While there is scope for some further pullback early in the morning, the main test is to see whether we can break 4250/80 and finally somewhere slightly above 4400 today, where a firm upperbank sits. On the other hand, we always need to ask ourselves whether 4000 can hold up any bear attacks.
3rd December 2008, 21:02pm, The significant of 4250 now is so vital that it determines the whole daily downstream moo river's fate. If that one burst and goes, we will see many bears washed ashore and many bulls charging up towards 5000. But behold, it has not managed that yet, we are still under 4250. I am fighting the bears with the bulls, while piling up the points. The victory is smelling sweet, but we have to give it a final push overnight.
3rd December 2008, 20:00: Fierce battle between the bulls and the bears are taking place into the final hour of trading. It seems that tonight is the night to decide the fate of this current rally and a breach of 4250 is the minimum requirement. Fight on.
3rd December 2008, 19:23pm: Same questions, but under 4250, scalping is more useful. I remain an optimistic bull for now.
3rd December 2008:Easy questions to be asked today. For bulls, can 4000 be held and 4250 be broken? For bears, can we break 4000 and hold 4250? In between, I would scalp.
2nd December 2008, 21:02pm: You do wish sometimes that everyday is like this. The points are piling up and will be counted a the end of the week. The key thing is that the upstream moo river on dail rsi is having a war against the daily downstream moo river on the chart. Once we are over 4250, the rest is history, as they say, I mean the bear market, at least until January.
2nd December 2008, 19:32pm: scalping below the upperbank for now and trending trade above 4250 and it has worked wonders today. It is not looking too bad as a bull this week now.
2nd December 2008, 17:00pm, take a deep breath, bulls, look at the upstream moo river on daily rsi, by linking up the two lows and parallel to draw the moo river. Once we are over 4250, we will be off to the races, bulls. I still think there is a possibility we might achieve 4800-4900 resistance zone, but for now, I am watching that ginormous downstream moo river from September very closely. Any burst of the upperbank there could flood many a bear.
2nd December 2008: That ginormous daily downstream is really a powerful beast. Every time, I tried to write it off, it roared back with thousands of bears. Is this a pullback for the Christmas rally or is this another caving in. Watch the daily rsi, which has hit the lowerbank now, though price could extend to bottom of the triangle in the 3800 support zone. Not a good start for bulls, but it is a long week.
1st December 2008, 18:25pm: Another Monday, another big fall. The problem is that we did not have enough momentum to overcome the key 4350 level on daily. The old ginormous downstream moo river still rules from 2nd September and we are back in here again. I have loaded up some longs now, but I will keep activities to a bare minimum. Doing less is perhaps the best policy for me this week. I might try to defend 4000 and 3800 if it comes to it, but not in between. So we play that triangle on the hourly chart as identified last week, need a break of 4380 to be bullish. I still think we are in that Christmas rally and this is a temporary blip or a pullback, then it could be Wave A, leading to Wave C to probe 3800 again this week. So be cautious in this extremely volatile market.
Week 48 comments: 29th November, 2008: Monday is a crucial day. A further rise of 50 points or more will confirm the death of that long running downstream moo river on daily chart. This will be the significant change indeed!!! If you look at ftse line chart (close) on weekly chart, you will see a ginormous W shaping up, which is always a bullish signal. While it is difficult to tell how high this rally can take us to, I will only be buying above 4000, if we see anything under 4000 next week, the bull run might have finished early and more bottom probing is going to happen. With the BOE decision on Thursday, I think this slow rising rally might have more legs than many think. Bears might want to sell under 4000 and bulls buy above 4000, though a fall back through 4250 will require a rethink.
28th November, 2008, 19:48: Well, at least we have achieved 4300 and my buy on dips and dives policy has paid out a handsome dividend this week, with a weekly taking of 1500 points profit. Could it have been better? Yes, much more could have been achieved.
Significant developments this week are as follows: 1. weekly rsi has broken the long running downstream moo river since Week19 May 2008, which is always encouraging for the bulls. Weekly MACD is shaping up a possible W, which could be very useful. We have had a green weekly candle, with a higher high and higher low. 2. Daily chart has broken the long running downstream moo river since 2nd September 2008. But still, I have a bit lingering suspicion there, as it has not broken it firmly enough for now. Daily MACD has bullishly crossed. 3. hourly is still meandering near the upperbank of a triangular moo river, which is quite interesting to observe, with an ma200 lifeline at 4073 at this hour. A break higher should give us at least another 400 points. Overall, I maintain my bullish stance and buy on dips and dives strategy for next week.
28th November 2008, 06:18am: As expected, the market rallies overnight and now we are on course to attack the top of the triangle, the only slight concern is that rsi is a bit high for hourly and 15m. I still think by the end of the day 4500 will be reached. The significance today can not be ignored. If we break that long running downstream moo river, we could easily move towards 5000 level before Christmas.
27th November 2008, 19:02:Almost forgot the yankies are on holidays today. But this delay has made the momentum more bullish now. Through this meandering today, weekly rsi has broken through the upperbank and daily macd has bullishly crossed. In term of prices, we still have not broken 4250, but that itself is no longer that signficant, as the goal post has moved lower at 4215, which has been broken now. I am expecting more bullish moves tomorrow, perhaps a sharp rallying day as well. We could quite easily capture our weekly high at 4500ish tomorrow, if Asia maintains the bullish momentum tonight. While I am bullishly biased for now, the big triangle on hourly chart is still there to be played with, a breach of 4350 tomorrow will bring us much higher, the lowerbank of this triangle is near 3940 at this hour with 4060 as ma200 lifeline.
RBS could be quite interesting tomorrow as they count the money to see how much is governmental and how much is private/institutional. And Vodafone is the one to watch, as a firm breach of 130 pence could mean the end of the bear market for it and perhaps with it, another boost to the Christmas rally on FTSE.
27th November 2008, 05:38am: Expanding triangle, top near 4300 and bottom line 4000, lifeline ma200 at 4060. I maintain my bullish stance. But can we break 4250??????????
26th November 2008, 21:06:I am slightly disappointed that FTSE did not break 4250 with Dow shooting over 8600. On the weekly, macd is still bending up to shape a possible W there against a lowerbank and on rsi, it has pierced through the upperbank in the downstream moo river, but we do need a decisive breach of 4250. I am concerned that there have been no mergers and acquisitions lately in the London market, particularly in the insurance sector. I think we might need a bit of that to give this rally a few more legs to stand upon. On daily, it is stuck under the upperbank of a ginormous downstream moo river from 2nd September 2008. MACD has just crossed bullishly and RSI is trying to cross over to the upperbank in the upstream moo river. All bode well for the bulls at the moment. I guess this Christmas rally is finally on, if we can break 4250, PROPER!
26th November 2008, 20:12pm:I hope you have all made some good bull money today and this week. My takings have been quite decent this week. If you use line chart on daily for both dow and ftse, you will realise that you are actually staring at a gigantic V extending its right arm up into the sky. Even the great Stubear (one of the most popular posters on the iii board) is saying 9000+ for dow is a certainty. I have no argument about that either. This time, we could well go to 5000 if this market is determined enough. We will just take 4500 for now.
26th November, 2008 18:11pm:Again, we are at a critical juncture to attack and overcome the key bear stronghold at 4250. We got the range almost right, but we have not seen the high of the day yet, imho. With hourly at 57, there is still plenty to go for between now and overnight. We are very much on track for 4500ish weekly top. I am still buying on dips and dives and have made over 1000 points this week, having bought some at lows last week and cashed them in this week.
25th November, 21:35pm: Well, we almost got the trading range right today, but ftse never managed to break the solid bear defence at 4250 for serious. Now we are stuck in a triangle on hourly chart, between 4030 and 4260. I still believe we are on course to 4500ish top for this week. We have made a higher high and higher low today, so bulls are still in charge for now, though bears have had the last laugh for today, as it is a red candle on daily chart. Daily macd never really bullishly crossed. I remain a buyer for now.
For bulls, we need a firm break of 4250!!!
25th November 2008 08:00am: a low point could be made between 9am and 10am.
25th November 2008 6:22am: We hit our target yesterday with a rise to 4230. Today's range is possibly 4375 and 4070, though this market could pick up momentum from here onwards. But Tories are making a fuss, so a bit of regurgitation to encourage the bears there. Significantly, weekly rsi is trying to break an ongoing downstream moo river and macd tries to shape up a W and hourly downstream moo river breached properly. I stay a buyer on dips and dives.
24th November 2008 18:48pm: xmas rally has just about kicked off today, hopefully, we definitely
need to break 8400/8500 for sure but the signs are good.
today is a critical day, a high close will bode well for the rest of the
week.
of particular great interest, is the bounce off the lowerbank on daily
rsi for ftse and dow, though daily macd is yet to decide its direction.
hourly, ftse upperbank broken and dow is still toeing itself over the
upperbank.
I am thinking of a late surge in the 20th hour to new highs to seal this
rally, but hourly, they do look a bit toppish for now.
I am hoping this rally will continue until 12th December, but that is
almost fantasy
24th November, 2008: Overnight, there have been positive developments of FTSE breaking a downstream on hourly MACD and also bouncing off a lowerbank on daily rsi. Both bode bullishly for FTSE today, with target near 4250ish to start with for this week.
23rd November 2008: This is the first moo river trading observation published on this site, though much has already been said about moo river trading on the www.iii.co.uk site, where I have been posting since 19th June, 1998.
We are into Week47 trading.
Weekly: FTSE weekly is still very much stuck in a downstream moo river, meaning we are still in the ongoing bear market. Bears will be looking for signs of weakness or M's in the resistance zone from 4360; 4460; 4520 and 4640, the last level is really the key resistance as any breach here will bring forth a rally that will force many bears into a rethink or perhaps to cut their shorts lower down as well. For the downside, 3830 is an important support level, otherwise we go back to 3700 level again or even lower.
Weekly macd is still showing that ftse is fighting to bounce off a major lowerbank in the ongoing downstream moo river and there is a potential for a W to emerge this week.
RSI has just withdrawn from an upperbank in a downstream moo river as well.
Overall, it is more likely that ftse will be trading between 3800 and 4500 this week, if it can hold above 3800 and break 4150 in a more forceful manner. I am buying on dips and dives this week above 3700/3800. Good luck, everyone.
