Moo River Trading System--Futures trading Made Easy: Moo River watch is based on the correlated findings amongst moo rivers on price, rsi, macd, repulse, elder ray, momentum and stochastic. Moo river trading system is a trading system, taking advantage of trendtrading or scalptrading opportunities based on findings of the Moo River Watch.
====================
Gold (spot futures)
(based on 30 year advanced data charts)
Renko study
Yearly: you always wonder who in their right mind would have persisted in buying all the way from 2000 low to this year's top. It has been such a powerful superbull run and it is not showing any signs of weakness on renko yet.
Quarterly: while it is possible that it has had a pullback and now the bull trend can continue. But it is more likely that this is the shaping of the Head for a potential Head and Shoulder Pattern.
Monthly: here we have an almost perfect double top M shape on the chart. If we do not overcome the previous top, then the journey downwards is almost guaranteed towards the apex level first, near 727 Renko. Even here, we can see the shaping of a Head and Shoulder Pattern as well.
Weekly: the superbull market must have left many a bear lying crying aloud in pain as we are so high away from the long term rising trendline near 725ish. The chart pattern is still that of a Giant M top, while we are shaping the right shoulder with another double top M shape. A break of 875 is required to bring down the whole glistening house with fake gold.
Daily: we have had four red renkos in a row, which is encouraging for bears.
=========
Overall, the topping weakness is as plain as the Spanish plain, but raging bulls are not letting their longs go yet, as they have learnt in this superbull run, every time they let their longs drop, they suffered a lot of distress and losses. But there willl be a trigger levels when all the bigboy bulls will run for the exit first and bolt the door after them. It is never too later to rethink your bullish stance on gold.
===========================================
Moo river watch
Yearly
Price chart: the market is hiding its hands behind its back, as we have an inside bar on the candle chart so far, the market makers are saying we don't want you to know our ACE cards for 2009 et.
Momentum indicators are struggling with their bull entropy levels, collectively, with Elder ray is bending downwards. Certainly the bullish momentum is waning.
Quarterly
Price chart: we are holding onto this top like leeches to a bloody leg, perhaps the last bull leg. The para sar dots have gone red the 4th time in a row now.
Bearishness is weighing on most momentum indicators, while rsi and stoch holding onto their bull entropy levels. A drop below 70 for rsi would be a clear signal to all that gold price needs to come down. It is not a question of whether, but a question of when.
Monthly
Price chart: the double top here has been created on the most obvious bearish divergence. Still, we are still hanging onto the last straw.
Momentum indicators imply the bulishness has turned upside down and now we must watch whether the bearishness is gaining in weight.
Weekly
Price chart: we need to break 866 to shape the double top M shape and 681 to ensure the bigger double top M shape can take place as well.
RSI: there seems to be a long running downstream moo river there now.
All other momentum indicators are poised bearishly, with momentum continuing its journey towards bearish entropy level.
Daily
Price chart: we are tangling with a key resistance line.
Momentum indicators are bullish configured, so perhaps we need another jab high to seal the big falls to follow.
=========================
Overall, the superbull market in gold has come to a secretive stop, though not seen by many an eye yet. The underlying momentums have turned bearish, though price is holding onto the highs, as if there is some unfinished business for them there. I don't trade gold futures or shares, but I do think this is a chance of a lifetime to be a permabear on gold, if you could handle the high volatility and high risks there.
Good luck.
Sunday 28 June 2009
Tuesday 23 June 2009
Dow-- Week 25 Moo River Watch (21st Jun to 27th June 09)
Moo River Trading System--Futures trading Made Easy: Moo River watch is based on the correlated findings amongst moo rivers on price, rsi, macd, repulse, elder ray, momentum and stochastic. Moo river trading system is a trading system, taking advantage of trendtrading or scalptrading opportunities based on findings of the Moo River Watch.
===================
Dow (cash futures)
(based on 30-year advanced data charts)
Renko study
Yearly: this is no doubt in my mind that this is a head and shoulder pattern and we are testing the neckline now, a break here will be very seriously bearish.
Quarterly: we have bounced off the neckline and over a key resistance line near 8000. We should get closer to 8850 before we regurgitate, remember this is on Renko, not on immediate price;
Monthly: this is bullish in the immediate term on monthly as we have overcome some key resistance lines there near 8200ish. A 9000 on Renko is a feasible target.
Weekly: we have a hard place and some sort of ceiling here, but we did manage to break a key resistance on the way up, so the overall tone is still a bullish one. Because we have gone so high up, we seem to be well supported by the long term trendlines, with key support 1 near 8100/800 and key support 2 at 7300/7600.
Daily: We are stuck in a triangle at the moment, below 8800 and above 8100 renko.
Overall, we are shaping this massive right shoulder, in this ginormous head and shoulder pattern, which could take years to complete and we all know what follows a head and shoulder pattern, normally the neckline is broken and more downside to follow. The left shoulder took 10 years to shape up and this right shoulder is only into its second year of construction, so permabears baying for 6000 and below must wait for a few years yet! I would think at the moment, we are in a buying zone, with 9000 as the midline there. Work out your own trading plans to see how you can benefit the most from the medium term flat trading zone, though with a longer term bearish bias.
=====================================
Moo River Watch
Yearly
Price chart: every week, I look at this chart and try to see different things. Still, I think I prefer the diamond pattern the best at the moment. As we realise that the March low as a jab at the decades long term upstream trendline, which is also the apex point of my diamond. The benefit of trading within a diamond that you know your boundaries very well. Diamonds are like triangles, which happen when the market is caught between two minds. One wonders where the next Microsoft is going to come to lift the American empire into fresh realms of spectacular economic growth. Potentially, we could operate within this diamond until the year 2023, based on some persistent sideway meandering. While we are in this diamond, the market is not going to exhibit super bull run or super bear run. Boringn a prospect it might be, it might just be very much tradable for us daytraders. WMA20 is currently supporting at 8245 with key pivotal at 9818.
All momentum indicators are bearish poised or configures, though some could do with a bounce up like elder ray and rsi. The bears are in control here.
Quarterly
Price chart: the good thing here for the world is that we have hit the lowerbank of the downstream moo river and no matter what permabears and pessimists tell you, we are bouncing up and we are going to bounce up and down in a slight upwards zone for many a quarter yet. So it is time to put your fear away and give your greed a free reign to run for quite a few quarters yet. Buy on dips and dives is the best strategy there, though it can be equally said that selling near top of this meandering zone is also a good strategy. You can be a winner both as a bear and bull in this meandering trading period. The problem with trading is that one has to snap out of one dominant mentality quite sharpl, like from greed to fear, from fear to greed, trading is a constant yoyo between these two. The longer it takes you to switch, the more you are going to suffer. The market has no mercy for late jumpers onto the bandwagon. For now, we are stuck betwen 7700 and 8900 pivotal points.
All momentum indicators are supportive with a bounce, though it is not yet signifant enough and macd is still bearishly configured. The levels on rsi and stoch should provide bargain hunters and stubborn permabulls plenty of reason to buy.
Monthly
Price chart: we continue our season of meandering. WMA50 and 20 have crossed over bearishly, while WMA200 is now acting as the ceiling for any adance against 8750. The pivotal range is between 8200 and 8700 with everything outside the range as overbought or oversold. We now have a red monthly candle after three green ones.
All momentum indicators are bullishly configured, with a few correlated w's there, off low levels or lowerbanks in predominantly downstream moo rivers.
Weekly
Price chart: we seem to be stuck between WMA 20 and 50, between 8350 and 9050. At this momennt, the price chart is bullishly poised, though we are having a second red candle here.
Momentum indicators are showing signs of topping down in correlated M shapes, indicating a near term market willingness to correct properly.
Daily
Price chart: Overall, we seem to be shaping up a head and shoulder pattern, with a need to touch upon 8200ish first. Eventually a dive towards 7800 can not be ruled out. There is just this unfinished dive to be done before the market can rally.
Momentum indicators are continuing downwards, though stoch seems to have a potential to W up there.
===========
Overall, the near term scenario is downwards probing for the bears to find out how determined the bulls are and there are no visible bullish signs yet.
===================
Dow (cash futures)
(based on 30-year advanced data charts)
Renko study
Yearly: this is no doubt in my mind that this is a head and shoulder pattern and we are testing the neckline now, a break here will be very seriously bearish.
Quarterly: we have bounced off the neckline and over a key resistance line near 8000. We should get closer to 8850 before we regurgitate, remember this is on Renko, not on immediate price;
Monthly: this is bullish in the immediate term on monthly as we have overcome some key resistance lines there near 8200ish. A 9000 on Renko is a feasible target.
Weekly: we have a hard place and some sort of ceiling here, but we did manage to break a key resistance on the way up, so the overall tone is still a bullish one. Because we have gone so high up, we seem to be well supported by the long term trendlines, with key support 1 near 8100/800 and key support 2 at 7300/7600.
Daily: We are stuck in a triangle at the moment, below 8800 and above 8100 renko.
Overall, we are shaping this massive right shoulder, in this ginormous head and shoulder pattern, which could take years to complete and we all know what follows a head and shoulder pattern, normally the neckline is broken and more downside to follow. The left shoulder took 10 years to shape up and this right shoulder is only into its second year of construction, so permabears baying for 6000 and below must wait for a few years yet! I would think at the moment, we are in a buying zone, with 9000 as the midline there. Work out your own trading plans to see how you can benefit the most from the medium term flat trading zone, though with a longer term bearish bias.
=====================================
Moo River Watch
Yearly
Price chart: every week, I look at this chart and try to see different things. Still, I think I prefer the diamond pattern the best at the moment. As we realise that the March low as a jab at the decades long term upstream trendline, which is also the apex point of my diamond. The benefit of trading within a diamond that you know your boundaries very well. Diamonds are like triangles, which happen when the market is caught between two minds. One wonders where the next Microsoft is going to come to lift the American empire into fresh realms of spectacular economic growth. Potentially, we could operate within this diamond until the year 2023, based on some persistent sideway meandering. While we are in this diamond, the market is not going to exhibit super bull run or super bear run. Boringn a prospect it might be, it might just be very much tradable for us daytraders. WMA20 is currently supporting at 8245 with key pivotal at 9818.
All momentum indicators are bearish poised or configures, though some could do with a bounce up like elder ray and rsi. The bears are in control here.
Quarterly
Price chart: the good thing here for the world is that we have hit the lowerbank of the downstream moo river and no matter what permabears and pessimists tell you, we are bouncing up and we are going to bounce up and down in a slight upwards zone for many a quarter yet. So it is time to put your fear away and give your greed a free reign to run for quite a few quarters yet. Buy on dips and dives is the best strategy there, though it can be equally said that selling near top of this meandering zone is also a good strategy. You can be a winner both as a bear and bull in this meandering trading period. The problem with trading is that one has to snap out of one dominant mentality quite sharpl, like from greed to fear, from fear to greed, trading is a constant yoyo between these two. The longer it takes you to switch, the more you are going to suffer. The market has no mercy for late jumpers onto the bandwagon. For now, we are stuck betwen 7700 and 8900 pivotal points.
All momentum indicators are supportive with a bounce, though it is not yet signifant enough and macd is still bearishly configured. The levels on rsi and stoch should provide bargain hunters and stubborn permabulls plenty of reason to buy.
Monthly
Price chart: we continue our season of meandering. WMA50 and 20 have crossed over bearishly, while WMA200 is now acting as the ceiling for any adance against 8750. The pivotal range is between 8200 and 8700 with everything outside the range as overbought or oversold. We now have a red monthly candle after three green ones.
All momentum indicators are bullishly configured, with a few correlated w's there, off low levels or lowerbanks in predominantly downstream moo rivers.
Weekly
Price chart: we seem to be stuck between WMA 20 and 50, between 8350 and 9050. At this momennt, the price chart is bullishly poised, though we are having a second red candle here.
Momentum indicators are showing signs of topping down in correlated M shapes, indicating a near term market willingness to correct properly.
Daily
Price chart: Overall, we seem to be shaping up a head and shoulder pattern, with a need to touch upon 8200ish first. Eventually a dive towards 7800 can not be ruled out. There is just this unfinished dive to be done before the market can rally.
Momentum indicators are continuing downwards, though stoch seems to have a potential to W up there.
===========
Overall, the near term scenario is downwards probing for the bears to find out how determined the bulls are and there are no visible bullish signs yet.
Monday 22 June 2009
Ftse100-- Week 25 Moo River Watch (21st Jun to 27th June 09)
Moo River Trading System--Futures trading Made Easy: Moo River watch is based on the correlated findings amongst moo rivers on price, rsi, macd, repulse, elder ray, momentum and stochastic. Moo river trading system is a trading system, taking advantage of trendtrading or scalptrading opportunities based on findings of the Moo River Watch.
===================
FTSE100 (cash futures)
(based on 30-year advanced data chart)
Renko Study
Yearly: it is hard to say whether it is a double M top, as the second top was not high enough, or a W. On yearly Renko, if we go under 3950, we are going to collapse big time. Currently, we are continuing down there.
Quarterly: we are bouncing upwards here in a V shaped rally, but we really could do with a push a bit higher, otherwise the chance of bending back down to shape up a W base is quite high;
Monthly: if you draw the long term uptrend line here, you will see the March low was supported by the long-term trendline and if you draw two upperbanks here, you will see why we are hesitating so much here, because we have hit upperbank 1. If you look back at 1988 onwards, you will see this is where prices move within a relatively stable range to consolidate and build up a base for a further rally later on. At this very month, you can see we could be shaping up the right arm of an M, where we have almost hit the apex point now with a little bit of downside, then up we go to form an M against upperbank 1. But the renko does not correspond to the price directly or closely, but it helps us to see whether the trend will be up or down.
Weekly: this is the hardest chart to draw properly and hardest picture to patternise visually. I think if you turn the chart upside down, then you could potentially see we are shaping up an inversed head and shoulder pattern, while we are shaping up the right shoulder at the moment. In this process, there seems to be a need to kiss the neckline near 4600 Renko which is 4700 on price and then a dive towards 4000/3850 to complete the messy drawing of the right shoulder.
Daily: this is where you see our 3 Peaks and 1 Domed House chart pattern perfectly and it looks like we have reached Point 10 already there, we need to bounce up and down towards 4330 renko for a few times, before we go for the Domed house.
Overall, as far as daytrading is concerned, we are in an uptrend for the medium term and a down move in the short term. If this 3+1 pattern works out, it will be the chart pattern of 2009!
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Moo River watch
Yearly
Price chart: we are in the middle of falling across from upper bollinger band to the lower bollinger band. For now, we are trying to hang onto the bollinger midline. The yearly pivotal levels are 4867 for resistance and 3200 for support.
All momentum indicators are bearishly poised or configured and we seem to have unfinished bear business here judging from the level of rsi and stoch. WMA20 is supporting at 3956.
Quarterly
Price chart: I can't really draw any moo rivers there. The pivotal points are between 4568 and 3346, with 4013 as midline. We are stuck under WMA50 which is near 4240. And we are trying to draw some life support from the lower bolling band. On the line chart, this has been a V shaped rally, though we have not rallied enough to justify that. There is every chance of bending back down to shape up a W base there.
Momentum indicators are bending up, but no visible W's there. Still, there will be more upside than downside, in terms of potential.
Monthly
Price chart: this is where we can draw the downstream moo river and divide it into two halves At the moment, we are tangling with the midline, with pivotals between 4714 and 4066. After three green monthly candles, this one is turning red for now. This is a major turning point. We must break this midline resistance if we are to continue this bull run. The WMA50 and WMA50 are tangling as well, almost crossing there.
Momentum indicators are supportive of further bull run, though rsi has bent downwards. Otherwise, everything else looks quite bullishly intended.
Weekly
Price chart: well, I will still be working on the 3 Peaks and 1 Domed House pattern, though it is not easy to identify Point 10 and it is not easy to tell how far down it goes that this pattern has been falsified. With a peak range between 4500 and 4300, I think 4100 is the maximum downside allowed. The WMAs are crossing bearishly, so this is overall a bear market rally, with substantial unfinished bear market business to come, though one can not ignore this rally either, as it is a meandering upwards from lowerbank to the upperbank. Bollinger bands are flattening and bending up and WMA is bending a bit, though not conclusive.
Momentum indicators are bearishly poised with correlated Ms, though rsi is still within the support of an upstream moo river, though we are getting very close to the lowerbank now.
Daily
Price chart: we have just had a bullish crossing between WMA50 and WMA20, which is normally bullish. And by my drawing, I reckon we have hit lowerbank 1 today, with the lowerbank 2 far down there near 3840. We are stuck in a triangle here, under 4450 and above 4200ish and this triangle will allow a maximum meandering till 30th July.
Momentum indicators: rsi has gone really odd shaped now, stoch has bulllishly crossed and Momentum has hit the lowerbank of a long running triangle from Oct 2008.
All in all, the bears are threateningn to break the banks though bulls might fight back against ma200 4170 ( I think I realise I am using the wrong ma in WMA, the normal MA is more popularly followed).
Good night and good luck.
===================
FTSE100 (cash futures)
(based on 30-year advanced data chart)
Renko Study
Yearly: it is hard to say whether it is a double M top, as the second top was not high enough, or a W. On yearly Renko, if we go under 3950, we are going to collapse big time. Currently, we are continuing down there.
Quarterly: we are bouncing upwards here in a V shaped rally, but we really could do with a push a bit higher, otherwise the chance of bending back down to shape up a W base is quite high;
Monthly: if you draw the long term uptrend line here, you will see the March low was supported by the long-term trendline and if you draw two upperbanks here, you will see why we are hesitating so much here, because we have hit upperbank 1. If you look back at 1988 onwards, you will see this is where prices move within a relatively stable range to consolidate and build up a base for a further rally later on. At this very month, you can see we could be shaping up the right arm of an M, where we have almost hit the apex point now with a little bit of downside, then up we go to form an M against upperbank 1. But the renko does not correspond to the price directly or closely, but it helps us to see whether the trend will be up or down.
Weekly: this is the hardest chart to draw properly and hardest picture to patternise visually. I think if you turn the chart upside down, then you could potentially see we are shaping up an inversed head and shoulder pattern, while we are shaping up the right shoulder at the moment. In this process, there seems to be a need to kiss the neckline near 4600 Renko which is 4700 on price and then a dive towards 4000/3850 to complete the messy drawing of the right shoulder.
Daily: this is where you see our 3 Peaks and 1 Domed House chart pattern perfectly and it looks like we have reached Point 10 already there, we need to bounce up and down towards 4330 renko for a few times, before we go for the Domed house.
Overall, as far as daytrading is concerned, we are in an uptrend for the medium term and a down move in the short term. If this 3+1 pattern works out, it will be the chart pattern of 2009!
================
Moo River watch
Yearly
Price chart: we are in the middle of falling across from upper bollinger band to the lower bollinger band. For now, we are trying to hang onto the bollinger midline. The yearly pivotal levels are 4867 for resistance and 3200 for support.
All momentum indicators are bearishly poised or configured and we seem to have unfinished bear business here judging from the level of rsi and stoch. WMA20 is supporting at 3956.
Quarterly
Price chart: I can't really draw any moo rivers there. The pivotal points are between 4568 and 3346, with 4013 as midline. We are stuck under WMA50 which is near 4240. And we are trying to draw some life support from the lower bolling band. On the line chart, this has been a V shaped rally, though we have not rallied enough to justify that. There is every chance of bending back down to shape up a W base there.
Momentum indicators are bending up, but no visible W's there. Still, there will be more upside than downside, in terms of potential.
Monthly
Price chart: this is where we can draw the downstream moo river and divide it into two halves At the moment, we are tangling with the midline, with pivotals between 4714 and 4066. After three green monthly candles, this one is turning red for now. This is a major turning point. We must break this midline resistance if we are to continue this bull run. The WMA50 and WMA50 are tangling as well, almost crossing there.
Momentum indicators are supportive of further bull run, though rsi has bent downwards. Otherwise, everything else looks quite bullishly intended.
Weekly
Price chart: well, I will still be working on the 3 Peaks and 1 Domed House pattern, though it is not easy to identify Point 10 and it is not easy to tell how far down it goes that this pattern has been falsified. With a peak range between 4500 and 4300, I think 4100 is the maximum downside allowed. The WMAs are crossing bearishly, so this is overall a bear market rally, with substantial unfinished bear market business to come, though one can not ignore this rally either, as it is a meandering upwards from lowerbank to the upperbank. Bollinger bands are flattening and bending up and WMA is bending a bit, though not conclusive.
Momentum indicators are bearishly poised with correlated Ms, though rsi is still within the support of an upstream moo river, though we are getting very close to the lowerbank now.
Daily
Price chart: we have just had a bullish crossing between WMA50 and WMA20, which is normally bullish. And by my drawing, I reckon we have hit lowerbank 1 today, with the lowerbank 2 far down there near 3840. We are stuck in a triangle here, under 4450 and above 4200ish and this triangle will allow a maximum meandering till 30th July.
Momentum indicators: rsi has gone really odd shaped now, stoch has bulllishly crossed and Momentum has hit the lowerbank of a long running triangle from Oct 2008.
All in all, the bears are threateningn to break the banks though bulls might fight back against ma200 4170 ( I think I realise I am using the wrong ma in WMA, the normal MA is more popularly followed).
Good night and good luck.
Sunday 21 June 2009
Moocano Watch on HSBC Bank
HSBC Bank
Weekly
Price: we are touching the lowerbank of this upstream moo river, there is no way to turn now, either a big fall out of this upstream moo river, or shoot up to 570ish to challenge the boundary of this bull flag. I am sure every chartist in the world can not ignore that this is one very well-shaped bull flag. If we can break 570ish, we are talking aoubt a challenge to 650ish pence a share.
RSI: we are stuck and we have filled in the triangle between the downstream upperbank and the upstream lowerbank with some intricated shape, which looks like a W in the making. At a value of 47.5, the potential is there to take the market by surprise to the upside. And this is the first meandering of this upstream moo river, so I am expecting that there should some more upside to come. (gradually, I am sensing a moocanic week coming up.)
Let's wait and see. Last time, the first Moocano watch I did was on Japan, it has obliged since to reach 10000.
Weekly
Price: we are touching the lowerbank of this upstream moo river, there is no way to turn now, either a big fall out of this upstream moo river, or shoot up to 570ish to challenge the boundary of this bull flag. I am sure every chartist in the world can not ignore that this is one very well-shaped bull flag. If we can break 570ish, we are talking aoubt a challenge to 650ish pence a share.
RSI: we are stuck and we have filled in the triangle between the downstream upperbank and the upstream lowerbank with some intricated shape, which looks like a W in the making. At a value of 47.5, the potential is there to take the market by surprise to the upside. And this is the first meandering of this upstream moo river, so I am expecting that there should some more upside to come. (gradually, I am sensing a moocanic week coming up.)
Let's wait and see. Last time, the first Moocano watch I did was on Japan, it has obliged since to reach 10000.
3 Peaks + 1 Domed House on ftse100
Let's cut the cheese and go for this 3 Peaks + 1 Domed House chart pattern on FTSE100 (obviously implicitly embedded in the underlying moo rivers).
Let's redraw this chart pattern on the daily price chart
Point 1: 28 Apr low;
point 2: May 1 low;
point 3: 8 May high;
Point 4: 14 May low;
Point 5: 19 May high;
point 6: 21 May low;
Point 7: 1 Jun high;
Point 8: 3 Jun low;
Point 9: 12 Jun high;
Point 10: 18 Jun low;
Point 11: 19 Jun high;
the following are speculations for next week:
Point 12: 22 Jun low, 4300ish;
Point 13: 23 Jun high, 4380ish;
Point 14: 24 Jun low, 4300ish;
Point 15: 25 Jun high to reach 4510;
Point 16: 26th Jun low: 4430ish.
(so everyone in the street knows the weekly range is 4300-4500 again!)
and we reach the top of the Domed House around 2nd July and tank down big around 4th July, a month after my friend Market Bear's prediction of a big fall due on 4th June, the seed of bearishness was implanted perhaps on that day, but it took the market a full month to realise that we needed a really substantial fall, like a few hundred points on ftse100 and a few thousand points on Hangseng42.
Good luck (and I stand to be corrected by the market)
Ps The original article on the 3 Peaks + 1 Domed House: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/wood061806.html
Let's redraw this chart pattern on the daily price chart
Point 1: 28 Apr low;
point 2: May 1 low;
point 3: 8 May high;
Point 4: 14 May low;
Point 5: 19 May high;
point 6: 21 May low;
Point 7: 1 Jun high;
Point 8: 3 Jun low;
Point 9: 12 Jun high;
Point 10: 18 Jun low;
Point 11: 19 Jun high;
the following are speculations for next week:
Point 12: 22 Jun low, 4300ish;
Point 13: 23 Jun high, 4380ish;
Point 14: 24 Jun low, 4300ish;
Point 15: 25 Jun high to reach 4510;
Point 16: 26th Jun low: 4430ish.
(so everyone in the street knows the weekly range is 4300-4500 again!)
and we reach the top of the Domed House around 2nd July and tank down big around 4th July, a month after my friend Market Bear's prediction of a big fall due on 4th June, the seed of bearishness was implanted perhaps on that day, but it took the market a full month to realise that we needed a really substantial fall, like a few hundred points on ftse100 and a few thousand points on Hangseng42.
Good luck (and I stand to be corrected by the market)
Ps The original article on the 3 Peaks + 1 Domed House: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/wood061806.html
Moo river watch/trading system--systems development
21 June 2009: I would really love for you to leave your comments here to put down a wishing list for a perfect Market watch system and then a market trading system. Here is my list:
Market watch system:
1. is the market going up or down?
2. is the market a scalping or trending market?
3. what is the market range?
4. etc.
Market trading system:
1 where are the low risk, high probabity and high profitability trades?
2. how do I maximise the profit from a winning trade?
3. how do I limit the loss from a losing trade?
4. etc
21st June 2009: I have been getting increasingly unhappy with my trading performance as well as the lack of break through in terms of the systems development for the Moo River Watch/Trading system. But yesterday, I woke up really early and had a few so-called eureka moments or thoughts and this morning, I stayed in bed, pondering over these thoughts and tried to work out what I am going to do to revamp the whole system again.
This weekend, there won't be much of an update in terms of moo river watch on the various markets. But this will be an important weekend, I can assure you, in terms of the Moo River Systems development.
You will notice the difference once Neo Moo River Watches are published. But it is going to take me some considerable time to do that.
Your patience will be rewarded.
================================================================================
07:57am, 30th May, 2009: I am pleased with the progress and the increased attention from the global investment community to date. the key theme for the moo river watch system is to identify correlations, amongst price and momentum indicators, now I am think, also amongst different investment vehicles, around the world.
in whatever economic circumstances, there will be a need to invest money somewhere somehow to generate return.
a good moo river trading system should invest in the high probability low risk high return (HPLRHR) trades around the world, identified by the moo river watch system
at the moment, my trading is still too rigid in sticking to the ftse100 only.
over time, I might need to change that to adapt to market conditions.
07:28am, 8th April 2009: I will try to incorporate the candles sticks, chart patterns as well as ewt into the moo river watch, though at the moment, my knowledge about all these three is limited.
always look at both possibilities, rather than looking for arguments or evidence which support the current trend, particularly in terms of momentum moo rivers.
06:33am, 21st March 2009: I have started to use parabolic SAR to count the waves in the moo rivers.
15:28pm 15th March 2009:I have added the momentum indicator and eldray indictor to my moo river watch list and see how it tells things.
15:58pm, 4th March 2009: the sequential nature of events, waves, moo rivers is something that has been explored by my brain today. The more I look at my charts, the more I begin to understand what an ending wave often turns itself into a dual role of a starting wave, hence a crossing in a downstream moo river leads to a crossing in an upstream moo river. Hence, we always notice the missing Wave 5 in Elliott Wave terms, because the final wave has been morphed into the new Wave 1, playing its dual role, which tends to confuse the eyes.
10:58am 4th March 2009: the sequential nature of the different time zones is becoming clear to my mind, it should play a key part in moo river watch. For example, downstream moo river on weekly with upstream moo river on daily, the latter is merely a crossing in the weekly moo river. It is a chicken and egg sequential consequence, though hen lays the egg, egg becomes a different hen and lays another egg and so on and so forth. While the initial egg is determined by the hen that lays it, the development of the egg later could change into a different hen altogether.
06:26am on 6th February 2009: I have further improved my understanding of stoc, rsi and macd and the combined use of the three indicators, which will enable to further improve me as a moo rive system trader.
22:28pm, 30th January 2009: When I have time, I will take a look at Delta Turning Points Theory as well, as I always finid it intriguing that some analysts can actually give a time frame for their analyses, e.g., this bull run will continue for the next 14 days.
21:23pm, 24th January 2009:a recent additional to moo river watch is the observation of the behaviour of the RSI. Will give it a go and see how it helps to improve the moo river watch.
19:35pm, 10th Janaury, 2009: The moo rivers never stop and one can never get into the same moo river twice, so must be my systems development. Increasingly, I am seeing a big value in incorporating the ELliott Wave Theory within the Moo River Trading System. I still need to study EWT in further details. But by combining my simplistic EWT, I am enjoying the waves in between the moo banks. More interestingly, it will help us to identify trend trade days and scalping days, which are two completely different types of trading days, where one has to have a different trading style and plan for each.
For the Moo river trading system, I am already watching moo rivers across chart, macd, stoc and rsi. But I have included a watch on VIX as well this week, thanks to my bear friend Stubear from down under. I am also going to incorporate more watch on the tangling of different MA lines on the chart to give us more accurate timing.
The Moo River Trading System is a system under constant development, but it has been tested to the extreme to last year's volatility, where I not only survived, but also made some handsome profits. But there is better days to come yet for Moo River Traders.
Market watch system:
1. is the market going up or down?
2. is the market a scalping or trending market?
3. what is the market range?
4. etc.
Market trading system:
1 where are the low risk, high probabity and high profitability trades?
2. how do I maximise the profit from a winning trade?
3. how do I limit the loss from a losing trade?
4. etc
21st June 2009: I have been getting increasingly unhappy with my trading performance as well as the lack of break through in terms of the systems development for the Moo River Watch/Trading system. But yesterday, I woke up really early and had a few so-called eureka moments or thoughts and this morning, I stayed in bed, pondering over these thoughts and tried to work out what I am going to do to revamp the whole system again.
This weekend, there won't be much of an update in terms of moo river watch on the various markets. But this will be an important weekend, I can assure you, in terms of the Moo River Systems development.
You will notice the difference once Neo Moo River Watches are published. But it is going to take me some considerable time to do that.
Your patience will be rewarded.
================================================================================
07:57am, 30th May, 2009: I am pleased with the progress and the increased attention from the global investment community to date. the key theme for the moo river watch system is to identify correlations, amongst price and momentum indicators, now I am think, also amongst different investment vehicles, around the world.
in whatever economic circumstances, there will be a need to invest money somewhere somehow to generate return.
a good moo river trading system should invest in the high probability low risk high return (HPLRHR) trades around the world, identified by the moo river watch system
at the moment, my trading is still too rigid in sticking to the ftse100 only.
over time, I might need to change that to adapt to market conditions.
07:28am, 8th April 2009: I will try to incorporate the candles sticks, chart patterns as well as ewt into the moo river watch, though at the moment, my knowledge about all these three is limited.
always look at both possibilities, rather than looking for arguments or evidence which support the current trend, particularly in terms of momentum moo rivers.
06:33am, 21st March 2009: I have started to use parabolic SAR to count the waves in the moo rivers.
15:28pm 15th March 2009:I have added the momentum indicator and eldray indictor to my moo river watch list and see how it tells things.
15:58pm, 4th March 2009: the sequential nature of events, waves, moo rivers is something that has been explored by my brain today. The more I look at my charts, the more I begin to understand what an ending wave often turns itself into a dual role of a starting wave, hence a crossing in a downstream moo river leads to a crossing in an upstream moo river. Hence, we always notice the missing Wave 5 in Elliott Wave terms, because the final wave has been morphed into the new Wave 1, playing its dual role, which tends to confuse the eyes.
10:58am 4th March 2009: the sequential nature of the different time zones is becoming clear to my mind, it should play a key part in moo river watch. For example, downstream moo river on weekly with upstream moo river on daily, the latter is merely a crossing in the weekly moo river. It is a chicken and egg sequential consequence, though hen lays the egg, egg becomes a different hen and lays another egg and so on and so forth. While the initial egg is determined by the hen that lays it, the development of the egg later could change into a different hen altogether.
06:26am on 6th February 2009: I have further improved my understanding of stoc, rsi and macd and the combined use of the three indicators, which will enable to further improve me as a moo rive system trader.
22:28pm, 30th January 2009: When I have time, I will take a look at Delta Turning Points Theory as well, as I always finid it intriguing that some analysts can actually give a time frame for their analyses, e.g., this bull run will continue for the next 14 days.
21:23pm, 24th January 2009:a recent additional to moo river watch is the observation of the behaviour of the RSI. Will give it a go and see how it helps to improve the moo river watch.
19:35pm, 10th Janaury, 2009: The moo rivers never stop and one can never get into the same moo river twice, so must be my systems development. Increasingly, I am seeing a big value in incorporating the ELliott Wave Theory within the Moo River Trading System. I still need to study EWT in further details. But by combining my simplistic EWT, I am enjoying the waves in between the moo banks. More interestingly, it will help us to identify trend trade days and scalping days, which are two completely different types of trading days, where one has to have a different trading style and plan for each.
For the Moo river trading system, I am already watching moo rivers across chart, macd, stoc and rsi. But I have included a watch on VIX as well this week, thanks to my bear friend Stubear from down under. I am also going to incorporate more watch on the tangling of different MA lines on the chart to give us more accurate timing.
The Moo River Trading System is a system under constant development, but it has been tested to the extreme to last year's volatility, where I not only survived, but also made some handsome profits. But there is better days to come yet for Moo River Traders.
Sunday 14 June 2009
FTSE100-- Week 24 Moo River Watch (14th Jun to 20th June 09)
FTSE100 (cash futures)
(based on 30 year data charts)
Renko study
Yearly: you can see three possibilities there, well, every week, I try to see it differently. The three scenarios are the triangle, the W and the downstream moo river. We will keep an eye on that to see which one is the dominant one in play.
Quarterly: we are not out of the woods yet and we are very very close to some key resistance here. To negate another lunge towards lows like 4000, we must maintain green quarterly renko onwards and upwards.
Monthly: we have overcome a significant resistance line and is headed into a bear concentration camp, well, a bear defence zone, to be more accurate, above 4500 and under 4800. I reckon bears are laying in wait in that zone and somewhere there, we will be beaten back a few steps. We have made enough progress to ensure this is a V shaped rally, so any blips of weakness will be short-lived.
Weekly: the three peaks + 1 domed house scenario is very much alive, either a drop to 4300 or 4250 will bring out many late bulls to come out to play. Potentially, there is an upperbank there for a downstream moo river there and we are in touching distance from it.
============
Moo River Watch
Yearly
Price chart: hanging onto the bollinger midline, still bearish;
All momentum indicators are still bearish.
Quarterly
Prce Chart: we are almost where we have to ask the question whether this is 2003 style bull market or something different.
All momentum indicators are supportive.
Monthly
Price chart: this is the fourth month into the rally and we might keep a doji there, to give bears a glimmer of hope.
All momentum indicators are supportive and not hitting resistance or not being overbought yet.
Weekly
Price chart: notice the W on upper bollinger band, this is the most useful encouragement for the bulls and the bending up of the midline as well. This bull run has not finished yet. The pattern here is very much a consolidation continuation pattern. The last week to hit the top will be in the 28th week with a Friday ending on 17th July. Since every man and street in the street knows the weekly range is 4300-4500, it might just be another scalper's week again. I am having a fierce internal fight between the new trendrider and the old scalper. Every time, the trendrider says that this could be the week for 4680, the scalper comes out to play triumphantly.
RSI: this one has a funny shape, it does look like this could be the week, then again you have heard this one before. Meanwhile, why not stick to the range we all know and work out a plan for breakout trades.
========
Overall, all eyes on that shrinkingn triangle on daily Momentum, which still has some room to run yet and it has been meandering in the middle, which is most extraordinary.
Good luck.
(based on 30 year data charts)
Renko study
Yearly: you can see three possibilities there, well, every week, I try to see it differently. The three scenarios are the triangle, the W and the downstream moo river. We will keep an eye on that to see which one is the dominant one in play.
Quarterly: we are not out of the woods yet and we are very very close to some key resistance here. To negate another lunge towards lows like 4000, we must maintain green quarterly renko onwards and upwards.
Monthly: we have overcome a significant resistance line and is headed into a bear concentration camp, well, a bear defence zone, to be more accurate, above 4500 and under 4800. I reckon bears are laying in wait in that zone and somewhere there, we will be beaten back a few steps. We have made enough progress to ensure this is a V shaped rally, so any blips of weakness will be short-lived.
Weekly: the three peaks + 1 domed house scenario is very much alive, either a drop to 4300 or 4250 will bring out many late bulls to come out to play. Potentially, there is an upperbank there for a downstream moo river there and we are in touching distance from it.
============
Moo River Watch
Yearly
Price chart: hanging onto the bollinger midline, still bearish;
All momentum indicators are still bearish.
Quarterly
Prce Chart: we are almost where we have to ask the question whether this is 2003 style bull market or something different.
All momentum indicators are supportive.
Monthly
Price chart: this is the fourth month into the rally and we might keep a doji there, to give bears a glimmer of hope.
All momentum indicators are supportive and not hitting resistance or not being overbought yet.
Weekly
Price chart: notice the W on upper bollinger band, this is the most useful encouragement for the bulls and the bending up of the midline as well. This bull run has not finished yet. The pattern here is very much a consolidation continuation pattern. The last week to hit the top will be in the 28th week with a Friday ending on 17th July. Since every man and street in the street knows the weekly range is 4300-4500, it might just be another scalper's week again. I am having a fierce internal fight between the new trendrider and the old scalper. Every time, the trendrider says that this could be the week for 4680, the scalper comes out to play triumphantly.
RSI: this one has a funny shape, it does look like this could be the week, then again you have heard this one before. Meanwhile, why not stick to the range we all know and work out a plan for breakout trades.
========
Overall, all eyes on that shrinkingn triangle on daily Momentum, which still has some room to run yet and it has been meandering in the middle, which is most extraordinary.
Good luck.
Thursday 11 June 2009
Royal Bank of Scotland-- Week 23 Moo River Watch (7th Jun to 13th June 09)
Royal Bank of Scotland
(based on 30 year advanced data charts)
Renko study
Yearly: Now we know what it looks like by falling from hero to zero, look at that chart, amazing! Look at it, unless you are a long suffering investors, it is not a pretty sight!
Quarterly: We have just reared our head up off the ground, but the rising angle is so weak and very pathetic!
Monthly: we had our first jittery even in this timid bounce and now we need to make up our mind;
Weekly: if you look closely and carefully, you can almost see a W between February and March, which seems to be the foundation of this current rally, which is really a weak one;
Daily: if you look closely enough, you can almost see an emerging weak W there;
4 hourly: this is where it becomes more interesting for the bulls. We have had a five impulsive waves down since achieving 50 pence at the beginning of May, now we seem to have started a reversal and we have just had Wave 1. There is hope.
Hourly: we had a nicely shaped W to bounce up for this current rally and this one seems to be stronger, rising at a steeper angle. We have definitely broken the downstream moo river there at 39 pence today.
=============
Moo river watch
Yearly
Price chart: if this is the trading range for this year, it will be the tightest of all yearly ranges for a FTSE100 stock;
Quarterly
Price chart: we are still stuck in the downstream moo river, with an upperbank resistance at 97 pence.
Look at the enormous W on Force Index.
Monthly
Price chart: while we have not made any advance in term of price rise, but we have managed to cross from the lowerbank to the upperbank in a horizontal way, so this is the month that we have to either destroy this downstream moo river or obey it, which is not really an option, unless we get nationalised within the month. Still, if we stretch it, we could say July is the month that this downstream moo river has to be answer for. The upperbank is near 51 pence.
While all the other momentum indicators have gone parabolic, rsi has been kept under 20, I think amongst these indicators it is showing a possibility of a Moocano eruption higher. It has been sizzling, but price has been kept under the lid for a long time. The Force Index seems to be waiting to go up to the next level.
Weekly
Price chart: we managed to smuggle ourselves out of the bear market through a narrowing bollinger band, indicating a break down or a break upwards which will be imminent. Para sar dots have gone green for a few weeks, without sending the price higher, while its angle is slightly on the rise. More adventurous bulls are getting impatient.
RSI: interestingly, we have been kept under 45 so far and now we have an oddly shaped W, perhaps ready to crack the 45 resistance.
Other momentum indicators are supportive, but somewhat losing traction with price not making much progress.
Daily
Price chart: we need to break 43 pence tomorrow to ensure survival or better, a Moocano eruption.
RSI: there is an obvious W there, as we pulled back only onto 40's, this bodes well for the bulls;
W's are emerging on other momentum indicators, such as Elder Ray, Stoch and Force index. There is hope.
=============
I have bought some shares in this bank this morning, which is a major switch for me, as I switched from sticking to quality and safe plays like HSBC and Barclays to this one, which I have always insisted on avoiding. I think we can notice a subtle switch into these so-called riskier banks, as big boys seek more value for their money. It is a gamble, as the threat of nationalisation is never too far away. But the risk and reward ration seems to suggest a brave gamble.
good luck.
(based on 30 year advanced data charts)
Renko study
Yearly: Now we know what it looks like by falling from hero to zero, look at that chart, amazing! Look at it, unless you are a long suffering investors, it is not a pretty sight!
Quarterly: We have just reared our head up off the ground, but the rising angle is so weak and very pathetic!
Monthly: we had our first jittery even in this timid bounce and now we need to make up our mind;
Weekly: if you look closely and carefully, you can almost see a W between February and March, which seems to be the foundation of this current rally, which is really a weak one;
Daily: if you look closely enough, you can almost see an emerging weak W there;
4 hourly: this is where it becomes more interesting for the bulls. We have had a five impulsive waves down since achieving 50 pence at the beginning of May, now we seem to have started a reversal and we have just had Wave 1. There is hope.
Hourly: we had a nicely shaped W to bounce up for this current rally and this one seems to be stronger, rising at a steeper angle. We have definitely broken the downstream moo river there at 39 pence today.
=============
Moo river watch
Yearly
Price chart: if this is the trading range for this year, it will be the tightest of all yearly ranges for a FTSE100 stock;
Quarterly
Price chart: we are still stuck in the downstream moo river, with an upperbank resistance at 97 pence.
Look at the enormous W on Force Index.
Monthly
Price chart: while we have not made any advance in term of price rise, but we have managed to cross from the lowerbank to the upperbank in a horizontal way, so this is the month that we have to either destroy this downstream moo river or obey it, which is not really an option, unless we get nationalised within the month. Still, if we stretch it, we could say July is the month that this downstream moo river has to be answer for. The upperbank is near 51 pence.
While all the other momentum indicators have gone parabolic, rsi has been kept under 20, I think amongst these indicators it is showing a possibility of a Moocano eruption higher. It has been sizzling, but price has been kept under the lid for a long time. The Force Index seems to be waiting to go up to the next level.
Weekly
Price chart: we managed to smuggle ourselves out of the bear market through a narrowing bollinger band, indicating a break down or a break upwards which will be imminent. Para sar dots have gone green for a few weeks, without sending the price higher, while its angle is slightly on the rise. More adventurous bulls are getting impatient.
RSI: interestingly, we have been kept under 45 so far and now we have an oddly shaped W, perhaps ready to crack the 45 resistance.
Other momentum indicators are supportive, but somewhat losing traction with price not making much progress.
Daily
Price chart: we need to break 43 pence tomorrow to ensure survival or better, a Moocano eruption.
RSI: there is an obvious W there, as we pulled back only onto 40's, this bodes well for the bulls;
W's are emerging on other momentum indicators, such as Elder Ray, Stoch and Force index. There is hope.
=============
I have bought some shares in this bank this morning, which is a major switch for me, as I switched from sticking to quality and safe plays like HSBC and Barclays to this one, which I have always insisted on avoiding. I think we can notice a subtle switch into these so-called riskier banks, as big boys seek more value for their money. It is a gamble, as the threat of nationalisation is never too far away. But the risk and reward ration seems to suggest a brave gamble.
good luck.
Nymex-- Week 23 Moo River Watch (7th Jun to 13th June 09)
Daily Nymex Crude (July) Bun (10-Jun-09)
Renko Study
Quarterly: what a bounce and there has been no pullback there, definitely a V shaped rally so far;
Monthly: ditto;
Weekly: it has some sort of rounded bottom shape there and it bounced up once it penetrated the neckline there near 5520.
Daily: I think we are the most lethal impulse Wave 3 at the moment, and there is no stopping signs yet;
Tuesday 9 June 2009
Moneysupermarket.com-- Week 23 Moo River Watch (7th Jun to 13th June 09)
Moneysupermarket.com
Renko study
Yearly: What a tremendous bear market on this one for the past few years, it feels the same as looking at the old dot com stocks once we went past 2000. The only way was down and has been down, will it be continuing downwards?
Quarterly: at last, we are having a bounce here, but the rising angle is too little to merit a serious concern for bears, though one has to remember all great things come about one step at a time;
Monthly: we had two bounces, now it seems we are tiring a bit, but this is not the right time to stop, we really need to be over 60 pence on Renko to be on the safe side. The shape of the two bounces does have the potential to be a W there. The structure is such that it is more like to be a W than an M, though we do have to wake up to that fact asap.
Weekly: if you draw a few lines there links tops etc, you will realise that it has made a series of manoevour to reduce the angle of the bear market and we have finally escaped from the bear claws. Either we have enterted a flat bullbear battle zone, or we have just has Wave 1 upwards, now are in the process of Wave 2, pending a massive Wave 3 up to shape up an upstream moo river there.
Daily: you can see we are in a basing downstream moo river with three potential upperbanks as resistance, 60 pence, 75 pence; 100 pence, with possibility for a final plunge towards 40 pence. At this moment, the market is still keeping mum, not telling us what it wants to do. So let's go over to the moo river watch, to see whether that gives us further clues.
=====================
Moo river watch
Yearly
Price Chart: What a calamity from 2007 when it made its debute! Well, all dot com investors must shiver at the graph, which must remind them of many similar charts for the dot com stocks before, pump big and dump big. There is only one question to mind, have we hit the value line or rock bottom yet?
Force index: this one has been bouncing up, indicating some kind of bullish divergence here.
Quarterly
Price chart: the candle pattern here seems to be a reveral pattern, though needing a bit more upside and a strong finish to this quarter to confirm it. We have certainly escaped the downstream moo river and are determined to stay out of it.
Force index: it has carved through 0 from negative territory, so the bulls are waking up to the value in this share perhaps.
Monthly
Price chart: we are not really out of the bearwoods yet, we need to break 72 pence to be in the safe hands of bulls.
RSI: it is like a boxer, being knocked down a few times, not being knocked out, so it is trying to get up from the floor and stand up to fight again.
Momentum: it has rallies up in a V shaped rally and now we have had a big W, if that one fails, it could hurt the bulls a lot; if this W extends the run, this share will have more bull legs to run further north;
Weekly
Price chart: this is the second time we display this type of pattern, which has the potential to W up. But last time, it failed miserable in 2008, only to come down much further. This time, it might work, with a very flattened bollinger lowerband as support. Can we get over 70 pence? This is the challenge.
We are all over the places on the momentum indicators, still very weak in the bull legs and late bears are still growling.
====================
Overall, we have escaped the long running sharp downstream moo river, but we are not out of the bearwoods yet. The best way for this share is to spike up and penetrate the downstream moo river in one go to kick off an uptrend. There is hope and the challenge of either a big up or a big down is to be expected shortly.
Good luck.
Renko study
Yearly: What a tremendous bear market on this one for the past few years, it feels the same as looking at the old dot com stocks once we went past 2000. The only way was down and has been down, will it be continuing downwards?
Quarterly: at last, we are having a bounce here, but the rising angle is too little to merit a serious concern for bears, though one has to remember all great things come about one step at a time;
Monthly: we had two bounces, now it seems we are tiring a bit, but this is not the right time to stop, we really need to be over 60 pence on Renko to be on the safe side. The shape of the two bounces does have the potential to be a W there. The structure is such that it is more like to be a W than an M, though we do have to wake up to that fact asap.
Weekly: if you draw a few lines there links tops etc, you will realise that it has made a series of manoevour to reduce the angle of the bear market and we have finally escaped from the bear claws. Either we have enterted a flat bullbear battle zone, or we have just has Wave 1 upwards, now are in the process of Wave 2, pending a massive Wave 3 up to shape up an upstream moo river there.
Daily: you can see we are in a basing downstream moo river with three potential upperbanks as resistance, 60 pence, 75 pence; 100 pence, with possibility for a final plunge towards 40 pence. At this moment, the market is still keeping mum, not telling us what it wants to do. So let's go over to the moo river watch, to see whether that gives us further clues.
=====================
Moo river watch
Yearly
Price Chart: What a calamity from 2007 when it made its debute! Well, all dot com investors must shiver at the graph, which must remind them of many similar charts for the dot com stocks before, pump big and dump big. There is only one question to mind, have we hit the value line or rock bottom yet?
Force index: this one has been bouncing up, indicating some kind of bullish divergence here.
Quarterly
Price chart: the candle pattern here seems to be a reveral pattern, though needing a bit more upside and a strong finish to this quarter to confirm it. We have certainly escaped the downstream moo river and are determined to stay out of it.
Force index: it has carved through 0 from negative territory, so the bulls are waking up to the value in this share perhaps.
Monthly
Price chart: we are not really out of the bearwoods yet, we need to break 72 pence to be in the safe hands of bulls.
RSI: it is like a boxer, being knocked down a few times, not being knocked out, so it is trying to get up from the floor and stand up to fight again.
Momentum: it has rallies up in a V shaped rally and now we have had a big W, if that one fails, it could hurt the bulls a lot; if this W extends the run, this share will have more bull legs to run further north;
Weekly
Price chart: this is the second time we display this type of pattern, which has the potential to W up. But last time, it failed miserable in 2008, only to come down much further. This time, it might work, with a very flattened bollinger lowerband as support. Can we get over 70 pence? This is the challenge.
We are all over the places on the momentum indicators, still very weak in the bull legs and late bears are still growling.
====================
Overall, we have escaped the long running sharp downstream moo river, but we are not out of the bearwoods yet. The best way for this share is to spike up and penetrate the downstream moo river in one go to kick off an uptrend. There is hope and the challenge of either a big up or a big down is to be expected shortly.
Good luck.
Sunday 7 June 2009
ftse100-- Week 23 Moo River Watch (7th Jun to 13th June 09)
FTSE 100
(based on 30 year advanced data charts)
Renko Study
Yearly: this is the fascinating bit, because ftse is in a shrinking triangle, whereby it has already hit the lowerbank, which means that we have seen the low on ftse100 this year already, with a potential upside up to 6000 in a few years' time. For ftse100, the current level near 4400 is actually of critical importance. If it caves down under 4400, it has the potential to test 3500 by 2010. To keep the bears at bay, bulls might push hard into new highs to keep a safe distance between the triangle scenario and the downstream moo river scenario, which depicts 3500. Meanwhile, we wait with baited breath.
Quarterly: this one is difficult to read. But I think the bulls have made enough effort here to keep the bounce intact. Subject to the possibility of a test of 4000, we should be safely on our way towards 6000. In the immediate future, there might be a key resistance popping up.
Monthly: together with the quarterly, it is also possible that we are actually in a Double top, or a giant M top shape, depicting a massive fall. For now though, the bulls want to work on the triangle scenario. 4520 is the key resistance, if overcome, then we will get to 4800 at least.
Weekly: the way I draw on this chart gives us a triangle to play with, we are confronting the key challenge here near 4500, a break here takes us up to 4700ish. 4180ish will be a main support level.
Daily: difficult to get a clue there, it seems that it is still the same challenge, either 4500 or 4800.
==================================
Moo River Watch
yearly
Price chart: it is a difficult chart to put into a pattern, either upstream moo river, downstream moo river, shrinking triangle or a butterfly shape, where we are in the process of shaping up the right wing. You do need a lot of imagination to see a pattern here. The bulls really need to push it throug 4500 to give themselves a bit more breathing space. Interestingly, the lower bollinger line is in a straight rising line at +45 degrees and the upper bollinger band does now show an M either. Maybe, things are not yet that doom and gloom yet. There is hope for humanity.
RSI: it is in a dangerous flat shape, which is susceptible to further falls towards the lowerbank in the downstream moo river.
Other momentum indicators are all in downstream moo rivers, all very bearish, though some might want to bounce up a bit, there is no guarantee though.
Quarterly
RSI: we are bouncing up toward another upperbank, with plenty of upside left.
Other momentum indicators seem to be supportive and bouncing up too.
Monthly
Price chart: what a headache for bulls and bears, as we lie exactly on the line in the sand between bulls and bears, there is no winner yet. But I think FTSE100 is lagging Dow, so we already know what is going to happen here, we are going up!
RSI: still room for the W based rally to finish its job upon the upperbank of the downstream moo river.
Momentum: this one is going strongly, V'd up and then W'd to continue and penetrated the downstream moo river, showing no signs of tiring yet.
All other momentum indicators are supportive.
Weekly
Price chart: I tend to switch to my butterfly to see it more clearly. I have drawn this butterfly with us now in the process of shaping up the right wing. For this wing, I have drawn three lowerbanks and three upperbanks to shape up three possible wing sizes. For the innermost wing, we are squeezed in such a way that we have to get out of a triangle in this coming week, either to reach 4680 or to fall to 4270ish. (Check out my weekly forecast in the Weekly forecasts and results).
Most momentum indicators are non-commital to either side, though they are still in the upstream moo rivers.
==============================
Three Peaks + one Domed House
Daily Price chart
We have certainly had the three peaks so far. If this is a classic scenario, then we have not yet had the separation decline, which depicts a dive under 4300 and we are also missing the Domed House. All to play for here.
Good luck.
(based on 30 year advanced data charts)
Renko Study
Yearly: this is the fascinating bit, because ftse is in a shrinking triangle, whereby it has already hit the lowerbank, which means that we have seen the low on ftse100 this year already, with a potential upside up to 6000 in a few years' time. For ftse100, the current level near 4400 is actually of critical importance. If it caves down under 4400, it has the potential to test 3500 by 2010. To keep the bears at bay, bulls might push hard into new highs to keep a safe distance between the triangle scenario and the downstream moo river scenario, which depicts 3500. Meanwhile, we wait with baited breath.
Quarterly: this one is difficult to read. But I think the bulls have made enough effort here to keep the bounce intact. Subject to the possibility of a test of 4000, we should be safely on our way towards 6000. In the immediate future, there might be a key resistance popping up.
Monthly: together with the quarterly, it is also possible that we are actually in a Double top, or a giant M top shape, depicting a massive fall. For now though, the bulls want to work on the triangle scenario. 4520 is the key resistance, if overcome, then we will get to 4800 at least.
Weekly: the way I draw on this chart gives us a triangle to play with, we are confronting the key challenge here near 4500, a break here takes us up to 4700ish. 4180ish will be a main support level.
Daily: difficult to get a clue there, it seems that it is still the same challenge, either 4500 or 4800.
==================================
Moo River Watch
yearly
Price chart: it is a difficult chart to put into a pattern, either upstream moo river, downstream moo river, shrinking triangle or a butterfly shape, where we are in the process of shaping up the right wing. You do need a lot of imagination to see a pattern here. The bulls really need to push it throug 4500 to give themselves a bit more breathing space. Interestingly, the lower bollinger line is in a straight rising line at +45 degrees and the upper bollinger band does now show an M either. Maybe, things are not yet that doom and gloom yet. There is hope for humanity.
RSI: it is in a dangerous flat shape, which is susceptible to further falls towards the lowerbank in the downstream moo river.
Other momentum indicators are all in downstream moo rivers, all very bearish, though some might want to bounce up a bit, there is no guarantee though.
Quarterly
Price chart: I am basing my trading plan entirely on this chart. I can still see us reaching 4680 this quarter, so we have got 3.5 weeks left to do it. If we do, then I claim that I know what is going to happen in the next few quarters till Q2 in 2010 and perhaps beyond as well. That is a big claim, though the foundation of this claim is on that particular condition that we reach 4680 this quarter, how interesting.
RSI: we are bouncing up toward another upperbank, with plenty of upside left.
Other momentum indicators seem to be supportive and bouncing up too.
Monthly
Price chart: what a headache for bulls and bears, as we lie exactly on the line in the sand between bulls and bears, there is no winner yet. But I think FTSE100 is lagging Dow, so we already know what is going to happen here, we are going up!
RSI: still room for the W based rally to finish its job upon the upperbank of the downstream moo river.
Momentum: this one is going strongly, V'd up and then W'd to continue and penetrated the downstream moo river, showing no signs of tiring yet.
All other momentum indicators are supportive.
Weekly
Price chart: I tend to switch to my butterfly to see it more clearly. I have drawn this butterfly with us now in the process of shaping up the right wing. For this wing, I have drawn three lowerbanks and three upperbanks to shape up three possible wing sizes. For the innermost wing, we are squeezed in such a way that we have to get out of a triangle in this coming week, either to reach 4680 or to fall to 4270ish. (Check out my weekly forecast in the Weekly forecasts and results).
Most momentum indicators are non-commital to either side, though they are still in the upstream moo rivers.
==============================
Three Peaks + one Domed House
Daily Price chart
We have certainly had the three peaks so far. If this is a classic scenario, then we have not yet had the separation decline, which depicts a dive under 4300 and we are also missing the Domed House. All to play for here.
Good luck.
Hangseng 42-- Week 23 Moo River Watch (7th Jun to 13th June 09)
Hangseng 42 (cash futures)
I will start doing a Renko study and a Moo river Watch, so that we may be able to draw some correlated conclusions.
Renko study
Yearly: this bounce has been relentless with no hiccups at all so far, carving through key resistance levels with ease. It is rising at the healthy angle of +45 degrees, which seems to hint at a V shaped rally. We are getting closer to 38.2% Fib level at 19568, having overcome the 23.6% Fib level at 17647;
Quarterly: same here, the rally is continuing without a pause, carving through Fib level 23.6% at 16892 and is threatening Fib level 38.2% at 18957 and in the distance there is the Fib level 50% at 20625, this number rings a bell for another magic number at 20700!!!
Monthly: same here, no pause yet;
Weekly: this gives us more clues about this rally. We seem to be in a 5 wave impulsive bull run here and we are currently in Wave 3. There is no sign of topping yet. We are yet to find out the Wave 3 top and then there should be a healthy pull back to some Fib levels;
Daily: no signs of double M top yet, it seems renko likes doing M top pullbacks or collapses. Time to watch out for them.
======================================================
Moo river watch
Yearly
Price chart: We are still in the downstream moo river, which is a ginormous one. A maximum bounce off the lowerbank could take us up to 24000 and a more plausible target before a major pullback could be near 20400, which again rings the bell of the magic number of 20700. Somewhere there, we are done with this rally and a proper regurgitation will take place.
Quarterly
Price Chart: while the downstream moo river from yearly rumbles down here, we can draw a butterfly shape here, though in my simplistic EWT waves, we can clearly see that we are in Wave 3, pending a top and a pullback. What I am sensing here is while this Wave 3 has been fast and furious, the Wave 4 and Wave 5 could be slow burners, taking ages. So if you are a bull, you might have already had most of this year's bull fun, some scalping and range trading is to follow. I still see a Wave 3 target near 20700, somewhere there.
Monthly
Price chart: you can say the structure is complicated to see the future, but you can easily say it has been the easiest of all bull runs if you had set your heart in the bull camp since March. We have had four months in a row with green monthly candles. I always think 3 green candles in a row is enough to reverse the bear run. The upstreams here have turned parabolic, from a healthy rising angle of +45 degrees to the current +60 degrees. We are getting very near to a top now, in this Wave 3 run, 20700 beckons and winks in the not too distant future now, whether that is the ultimate Wave 3 and Wave 5 top target. One day, we will stare at the magic number of 20700 in amazement!
RSI: next time, you see a W or M on monthly RSI or any other time zones, sit up and take note. What a run we have had out of this W.
All other momentum indicators are supportively bullish with no signs of M or tiring or being overbought yet.
Weekly
Price chart: we are definitely in a very sharp upstream moo river, without the lowerbank being threatened or breached, we continue upwards and onwards. In terms of waves, as far as my simplistic EWT view is concerned, we seem to be in Wave 5 of the main Wave 3, so a top is very near. The next two main waves 4 and 5 will throw out some complicated minor waves ABC and 12345, to keep bulls and bears all richly entertained. I try to gaze into the future here and the month of September looms large and the date 20.09.2009 looms large as well. This is when things might go really pear-shaped! Before then, we live in hope and enjoy life with hope in our hearts and souls.
RSI: how does RSI represent or embody the end of Wave 3 in price? Would it actually reach into 70's top so that Wave 5 will be realised upon bearish divergence? We seem to have given the possibility of shaping up an M there a miss for now. Either we will try to shape up an oddly shaped W or we simply push for the top now. We are in an upstream moo river anyways.
Momentum: we have smashed the downstream moo river there in Week 17 in May, having broken the triangle there and then. We are in the upstream moo river and seem to be enjoying it.
Elder Ray: this one is actually in a downstream moo river and it is challenging the upperbank now, with potentially a mis-shaped W or M.
MCAD: this one is keeping mum by keeping on challenging the upperbank of an expanding triangle, bullishness seems to be gathering pace.
Repulse: it has broken the upperbank of the upstream moo river and has gone parabolic.
Stoch: this one has hit the top and is now floating in the sky, the only way is down, but the question is when!
====================================
For a weekly range forecast: I would say an early week rise, but to tank down perhaps from 19000ish towards 18000ish.
Good luck.
I will start doing a Renko study and a Moo river Watch, so that we may be able to draw some correlated conclusions.
Renko study
Yearly: this bounce has been relentless with no hiccups at all so far, carving through key resistance levels with ease. It is rising at the healthy angle of +45 degrees, which seems to hint at a V shaped rally. We are getting closer to 38.2% Fib level at 19568, having overcome the 23.6% Fib level at 17647;
Quarterly: same here, the rally is continuing without a pause, carving through Fib level 23.6% at 16892 and is threatening Fib level 38.2% at 18957 and in the distance there is the Fib level 50% at 20625, this number rings a bell for another magic number at 20700!!!
Monthly: same here, no pause yet;
Weekly: this gives us more clues about this rally. We seem to be in a 5 wave impulsive bull run here and we are currently in Wave 3. There is no sign of topping yet. We are yet to find out the Wave 3 top and then there should be a healthy pull back to some Fib levels;
Daily: no signs of double M top yet, it seems renko likes doing M top pullbacks or collapses. Time to watch out for them.
======================================================
Moo river watch
Yearly
Price chart: We are still in the downstream moo river, which is a ginormous one. A maximum bounce off the lowerbank could take us up to 24000 and a more plausible target before a major pullback could be near 20400, which again rings the bell of the magic number of 20700. Somewhere there, we are done with this rally and a proper regurgitation will take place.
Quarterly
Price Chart: while the downstream moo river from yearly rumbles down here, we can draw a butterfly shape here, though in my simplistic EWT waves, we can clearly see that we are in Wave 3, pending a top and a pullback. What I am sensing here is while this Wave 3 has been fast and furious, the Wave 4 and Wave 5 could be slow burners, taking ages. So if you are a bull, you might have already had most of this year's bull fun, some scalping and range trading is to follow. I still see a Wave 3 target near 20700, somewhere there.
Monthly
Price chart: you can say the structure is complicated to see the future, but you can easily say it has been the easiest of all bull runs if you had set your heart in the bull camp since March. We have had four months in a row with green monthly candles. I always think 3 green candles in a row is enough to reverse the bear run. The upstreams here have turned parabolic, from a healthy rising angle of +45 degrees to the current +60 degrees. We are getting very near to a top now, in this Wave 3 run, 20700 beckons and winks in the not too distant future now, whether that is the ultimate Wave 3 and Wave 5 top target. One day, we will stare at the magic number of 20700 in amazement!
RSI: next time, you see a W or M on monthly RSI or any other time zones, sit up and take note. What a run we have had out of this W.
All other momentum indicators are supportively bullish with no signs of M or tiring or being overbought yet.
Weekly
Price chart: we are definitely in a very sharp upstream moo river, without the lowerbank being threatened or breached, we continue upwards and onwards. In terms of waves, as far as my simplistic EWT view is concerned, we seem to be in Wave 5 of the main Wave 3, so a top is very near. The next two main waves 4 and 5 will throw out some complicated minor waves ABC and 12345, to keep bulls and bears all richly entertained. I try to gaze into the future here and the month of September looms large and the date 20.09.2009 looms large as well. This is when things might go really pear-shaped! Before then, we live in hope and enjoy life with hope in our hearts and souls.
RSI: how does RSI represent or embody the end of Wave 3 in price? Would it actually reach into 70's top so that Wave 5 will be realised upon bearish divergence? We seem to have given the possibility of shaping up an M there a miss for now. Either we will try to shape up an oddly shaped W or we simply push for the top now. We are in an upstream moo river anyways.
Momentum: we have smashed the downstream moo river there in Week 17 in May, having broken the triangle there and then. We are in the upstream moo river and seem to be enjoying it.
Elder Ray: this one is actually in a downstream moo river and it is challenging the upperbank now, with potentially a mis-shaped W or M.
MCAD: this one is keeping mum by keeping on challenging the upperbank of an expanding triangle, bullishness seems to be gathering pace.
Repulse: it has broken the upperbank of the upstream moo river and has gone parabolic.
Stoch: this one has hit the top and is now floating in the sky, the only way is down, but the question is when!
====================================
For a weekly range forecast: I would say an early week rise, but to tank down perhaps from 19000ish towards 18000ish.
Good luck.
Thursday 4 June 2009
Gold-- Week 22 Moofall Watch (31st May to 6th June 09)
Gold (spot)
(based on 30 year advanced chart)
Yearly
There is not much to say here, apart from the observation that we are still in a very long running bull market since 2002. If we have to look for signs of weakness, Elder ray is bending down a bit and Stoch is almost crossing, bearishly, if only we can see what is happening in that intense minglingn of the two lines there. And needn't I add that RSI is at a high of 84.49.
This reminds me to buy a few more Lotto tickets, if I win, I'd be a bear, ride it all the way down to 500 to start with and 200 eventually. I will be a madbear there, but with it being such a volatile market, I don't want to be involved at all, without winning the lottery, be warned.
Quarterly
This is where interesting things are happening, i.e., the bearish divergence is appearing everywhere, with a high price and waning momentums, across rsi, Momentum, elder ray etc. Someone is holding up the glistening stuff artificially.
We are still hedging ourselves against the end of the world scenario, in terms of a collapsing economy and stock markets and so on. This is creating a duality that we won't let go of gold but we want to buy higher risk assets as well. Actually, gold is probably the world's most toxic and dangerous asset to hold in our pension funds etc.. I wish I could ask them to sell all gold in our portfolios and start investing in the real economy, companies and business and entrepreneurship.
Monthly
The bearish divergence is significant here too, the price is simply held by who knows what forces. We are still in the process of Wave 2 pullback, which is threatening to falsify this 5 impulsive waves down scenario, but RSI is supportive of this scenario, in a downstream moo river. but there might still be a little spike left and a little meandering left yet to touch the upperbank there, while price must be kept the last high near 1033, otherwise Wave 1 wil be falsified.
Come on, please, let me win the lottery this weekend and I will turn into a permabear on gold and donate half of my winning to charity and 1/4 devoted to do something good for the world and 1/4 for love, family, friends, etc.
Weekly
I can't believe the technical analysts are not screaming out bearish divergence all over the world. It had a double top and bounced back and now is shaping up another double top.
The world is waiting for a Trigger event to sell off gold in a massive moofall (waterfall) and that could just be our GB. I think it was his selling of British gold that triggered this whole bull market and how apt it will be for him to trigger the downfall of the glistening stuff.
But despite my bearish fervour, I will never touch gold unless I win the lottery, so be warned and stay away from it.
Good luck.
(based on 30 year advanced chart)
Yearly
There is not much to say here, apart from the observation that we are still in a very long running bull market since 2002. If we have to look for signs of weakness, Elder ray is bending down a bit and Stoch is almost crossing, bearishly, if only we can see what is happening in that intense minglingn of the two lines there. And needn't I add that RSI is at a high of 84.49.
This reminds me to buy a few more Lotto tickets, if I win, I'd be a bear, ride it all the way down to 500 to start with and 200 eventually. I will be a madbear there, but with it being such a volatile market, I don't want to be involved at all, without winning the lottery, be warned.
Quarterly
This is where interesting things are happening, i.e., the bearish divergence is appearing everywhere, with a high price and waning momentums, across rsi, Momentum, elder ray etc. Someone is holding up the glistening stuff artificially.
We are still hedging ourselves against the end of the world scenario, in terms of a collapsing economy and stock markets and so on. This is creating a duality that we won't let go of gold but we want to buy higher risk assets as well. Actually, gold is probably the world's most toxic and dangerous asset to hold in our pension funds etc.. I wish I could ask them to sell all gold in our portfolios and start investing in the real economy, companies and business and entrepreneurship.
Monthly
The bearish divergence is significant here too, the price is simply held by who knows what forces. We are still in the process of Wave 2 pullback, which is threatening to falsify this 5 impulsive waves down scenario, but RSI is supportive of this scenario, in a downstream moo river. but there might still be a little spike left and a little meandering left yet to touch the upperbank there, while price must be kept the last high near 1033, otherwise Wave 1 wil be falsified.
Come on, please, let me win the lottery this weekend and I will turn into a permabear on gold and donate half of my winning to charity and 1/4 devoted to do something good for the world and 1/4 for love, family, friends, etc.
Weekly
I can't believe the technical analysts are not screaming out bearish divergence all over the world. It had a double top and bounced back and now is shaping up another double top.
The world is waiting for a Trigger event to sell off gold in a massive moofall (waterfall) and that could just be our GB. I think it was his selling of British gold that triggered this whole bull market and how apt it will be for him to trigger the downfall of the glistening stuff.
But despite my bearish fervour, I will never touch gold unless I win the lottery, so be warned and stay away from it.
Good luck.
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