Moo River Trading System--Futures trading Made Easy: Moo River watch is based on the correlated findings amongst moo rivers on price, rsi, macd, repulse, elder ray, momentum and stochastic. Moo river trading system is a trading system, taking advantage of trendtrading or scalptrading opportunities based on findings of the Moo River Watch.
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FTSE 100 (cash futures)
(based on 30 year advanced data charts)
Renko Study
Yearly: I don’t know where the long term trendline is for FTSE100, as I could do with a few decades’ data. But at least, it does not have a proper double M top, which gives it a chance for a triangle or a W. Still, so far the bearish momentum is very much evident and it does require a yearful of green renko to reverse the bearish trend.
Quarterly: ftse100 does seem to have bounced off some long term trendline support. It is a protection zone and we bounced off the first line of support. Under 5000, we are very much in the bear market.
Monthly: we bounced up and are now pulling back. We may bounce up again to form a small double M top there, ensuring many a bear month to come, in a basing move to enable the market to rally later on to challenge the key 5000 level. I keep on changing my mind on the timing of it all. Sometimes I see it this way and other times I see it differently. Today, I see a market bottom near October 2010 and rallying afterwards. I certainly see the market holds above 4000 this year, though the upside is rather limited as well for 2009.
Weekly: I have no comments here, as it is too messy to be mooriverable.
Daily: somehow, I feel this 3 peaks and 1 domed house pattern is a bit too far down, if we do not bounce up this week, I think we must look for another pattern to work on. Maybe, any upside will be lmited under 4400 renko for now, until we have to break higher one day. I think the bears have achieved a lot in pushing the market so low, now bulls have lost confidence. Anyways, I will give this pattern one more week to exert itself.
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Moo River Watch
Yearly
Price chart: if you are a yearly trader, then 4000 is your line in the sand, above 4000, you long and under 4000, you short, as that is the long term trendline as far as I can. For now, we are stuck in a triangle, above 4000 and under 4830 maximum.
Momentum indicators have unfinished bear business and are bearishly poised.
Quarterly
Price Chart: this is worrying for the quarter bullish traders, as Q2 candle did not confirm the status of Q1 candle as a superhammer. All eyes are now on 4000 to see whether that can hold off all bear attacks. If that one fails, then a double bottom is possible near 3836 or 3459. Still, we are meandering across to the upperbank in the downstream moo river here, so while it is scary, downside risks should be limited.
Monthly
Price chart: if you are a monthly bullish trader, then 4100 is really the line in the sand, under there, it does not justify buying, as the downside risk is significant with no uncertainty where we could bounce up. July will be a key month for ftse100. We really need to put some distance away from 4100. Pleasingly, the March green candle has been confirmed as a superhammer reversal candle and the two candles in May and June do not look too bearish. We desperately need a green candle this month.
Weekly
Price chart: We have really reached the tolerable limit for the downside, 4100 and then 4000, these are the final lines in the sand for all ftse bulls.
RSI: we are still in the upstream moo river and we are meandering across to the lowerbanks and we have reached lowerbank 1 as well as the former upperbank for the downstream moo river. If the combination of these support can not stop the rot, the prospect is rather a gloomy one. We desperately need a change as well, e.g., a change of leadership from Gordon Brown to someone would be nice, but it is not happening sooner enough, is it?
Other momentum indicators are more on the bear side rather than on the bull side, while stoch is desperately needing a dive down to the earth.
Daily
Price chart: while 4100 is really the key support, the number 4088 keeps popping itself up for me to look at, for no reason at all.
Momentum indicators are almost ready for a bounce any time now. We can only hope for the best.
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Overall, we are in the process of a major pullback and we are almost at the end of it now. It is like that this will prove to be the key week for this key month of July.
Good luck.
PS This is where I daytrade and I am currently a permabull.
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This is the last batch of weekly moo river watch updates until I return from my holidays on 10th August, 2009.
ReplyDeleteI hope I have somewhat forced some of you into drawing your own moo rivers by not providing any moo river charts here, which will serve you well in my absence.
Good luck.
Have a good Holiday Trig
ReplyDeleteThanks, Matt.
ReplyDeleteGood luck with your trading, I think you are doing really well, same applies to NBT too.
PS NBT, check your email.
Great watches again Trigg.
ReplyDeleteHead to toe in paint all weekend but had some enjoyable late ones drawing and redrawing. Undecided like most tho feel a turning point v near
Gl all
good morning all
ReplyDeletesuddenly so much to do, it is the rush before the holidays.
Some quick moo river watch
Weekly
Price: the weekly range forecasted is 4088-4380, so we almost touched it. 4100 is really the line in the sand here for all bulls this week, if not, we have to beg 4000 to hold all bear assaults;
RSI: has finally reached the lowerbank, should never have ignored the moo river meandering power!
Stoch: still not reaching bear entropy level;
Momentum: almost finishing its meandering process as well.
Both moo rivers are upstream moo rivers, remember?
Daily
Price: it is slithering down the lower bollinger band. in a bear market, very dangerous as we don't know where it will stop. as of now, it has opened up room for a big bounce up now, towards 4220/40 and then 4330 ema levels.
RSI: this downstream moo river is relentless, almost reaching bear entropy level now;
Stoch: what a collapse from the initial bounce, now we need to rebuild;
Momentum: this is the one I trade upon, it has again reached the lowerbank, for better or for worse!
Hourly: the downstream moo river is relentless with an upperbank near 4210ish (the main one, though there are many minor ones).
Be brave and courage will be rewarded handsomely. When others get fearful, be greedy, WB's famous words.
good luck
Maybe the worm has turned......
ReplyDeletelets hope so cos i have been holding these losing longs for weeks !!
That seemed like a good point 14 at 8am... 4070 and I think I would of cut and run...lol
ReplyDeleteTodays low is my stop for longs, all or nothing now..! So looking for 2 tests of low for points 12 and 14.
moooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Still think ill have a cheeky short at 4245..target 4125..lol
NBT
ReplyDeletevery important that you go with the trend when the market trends, though there will be counter trend movement, it only tempts and sucks you into a contrarian mode, which is dangerous, when the market does trend.
it is my word of caution for you, of course, it is your call and you have made some excellent calls recently.
be warned and be careful. it is not about money at the end of the day, it is a psychological game, it is all about whether you can sleep on mistakes made and whether these mistakes will be tolerable for your heart.
good luck.
taken 250 pointer profit just to give myself a safety margin for the week, haven't done that for a few weeks, so need a bit more confidence.
ReplyDeleteif we trend, we are going to trend for a while, so plenty of time to ride it.
got out a bit earlier there, never mind.
ReplyDelete4250;
4300;
4340;
4380.
good morning all
ReplyDeleteyes, we are back to the traditional 4250 resistance play. When I saw hourly rsi at such a toppish level, I bailed out, ten minutes later, I could have been 100 pointer better off, well, you learn something new everyday.
let's do some daily moo river watch on ftse 100
Weekly
Price chart: we are holding in a less sharp blue Upsteam moo river. We have been stopped by ema20 at 4246 last night, which is a traditional bear camp anyways.
RSI: we seem to be wanting to bend up here, though there is a little distance between here and the lowerband;
Stoch: continuing its downwards journey;
Momentum: it seems to be trying to shape up a W there, but there is some meandering left to reach the lowerbank yet.
Remember, my weekly forecast is between 4088 and 4380 and I think we have seen the low for the week now.
Daily
Price chart: the ema100 is here to stop the rally too, at 4243, ema200 is at 4332, which is where I think the market is headed.
RSI: significantly we have broken the downstream moo river there having reached into 30's, now we want to find out the shaping of the upstream moo river and potentially I think we might hit upperbank 1;
Stoch: we have finished a complex basing movement with a W-M-W sort of move, now bullishly crossed and reaching to break the upperbank of the downstream moo river.
Momentum: this is what I rely on, is trying to cross from the lowerbank to the upperbank, a lot more upside movement to come yet.
Hourly
Price chart: we have firmly broken the downstream moo river, now either a flat zone or an upstream moo river, where we need to find the lowerbank for either or both, pending today's movements. I think 4160 should be the maxim downside for today, it all depends on hourly rsi, to see how it regurgitates itself from overbought levels. The main action today could be between 4300--trendbear--4270--scalp--4210-trendbull-4180. I would not recommend any shorts or a permabear position as the sentiment has just turned the bear corner. I am a permabull anyways, buy on dips and dives.
RSI: this is where your eyes should focus on. We need to come back down to at least near 40's, if not into 30's. Look at the correlation between price and rsi, if the erosion of rsi does not equate too much price erosion, then you know the bull trend is strong. We certainly should not see 30 or sub 30 if this bull run has further legs to run yet.
Stoch: bearishly crossed, some regurgitation is welcome by both parties. A full regurgitation without losing too much in price would be a nice thing to have.
Momentum: might come down a bit futher.
If I asked you to refrain from fear yesterday worked out a treat, then today I ask you to restrain your greed. It is all part of the game. The worm has turned, but it will be a patient move.
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Don't forget our 3 Peaks and 1 Domed House chart pattern, this one almost died yesterday but is now live and kicking again, as long as 4100 holds.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/wood061806.html
good luck.
completed one scalp from 4200, scalping for now.
ReplyDeletebought some bank shares at yesterday's dive, so now fully invested, no cash left at all. looking for a 10% return on all of them before cashing them in.
ReplyDeletemoo rivers never lie, only that humans sometimes do not trade accordingly.
ReplyDeletethe hourly moo river on rsi is quite a useful one to take profit so far, and it has yet to reach the lowerbank, a bit more downside to come, I think.
but ema20 on hourly seems to be holding it, while spx500 tries to hold above 900.
ReplyDeleteit is a strange sort of moo river on hourly rsi, but it is a more sustainable one, which is interesting. we really should come down a bit more, but that ema20 is holding price up for now. A retest of ema200 will be useful.
ReplyDeletewhen you trade, are your eyes on the price or the momentums? well, you should focus on the momentums, but sometimes price comes useful as well.
ReplyDeletewe seem to be filling in that triangle against the lowerbank and ema20 on hourly price chart.
ReplyDeletethe upstream moo river on hourly price chart:
1. link up tops of 16pm on 13 July and 23pm to form upperbank;
2. parallel to link up the low at 11am on 13th July and you see why we stopped this morning at 4195, upon ema200 support as well.
went painting the fence for a bit and finally the market came down a bit. the problem with trading is when you took the profit, then you want to be in again, to trade or not to trade is always the fascination there.
ReplyDeleteas I said early, we had another near test of ema200 again, so it seems that upstream moo has been broken already, now need to draw another. Next up is the old upperbank of the broken donwstream moo river. hourly rsi has not yet reached its lowerbank and momentum too has a little bit more downside.
unless we use the 8am low on 13th July, then that lowerbank has just been test, coinciding with ema200 as well for support, which makes it quite interesting.
ReplyDeletethis meandering behaviour today is extremely normal and healthy, though slightly disappointing for some keen bulls, after yesterday's rise. Tomorrow, we should continue to rise again, it is one of those things, it goes and stops and then goes and goes and stops...
ReplyDeletehence why this morning I cautioned against extreme greed.
my charts appear to look a lot clearer this afternoon compared to this morn.
ReplyDeletemomentums are going to be a regular on my charts from now on and I will practice using it whist you are away.
Looking for the US LB (4180) to take off a short from earlier.. thanks to the Bigmoney indicator..lol Its quite uncanny really...
market has been very kind to allow me reload, still unhappy about offloading them so soon, costing about 120 pointer in total, but then again a profit pocketed is a good profit.
ReplyDeleteNBT
ReplyDeleteit would be nice if I hit the weekly range forecast spot on this week, to send me off to a good holiday with some satisfaction.
I am hesitating about scalping now, as we have hit the lowerbank on the hourly upstream moo river, though we might hold up here for a while yet, but at any moment, it could shoot up, though in fairness, it is under 4260, scalping; and above there, riding into 4300's. How do you want to take your share of the money is obviously an individual choice, hold on and ride it into 4300's or scalp your way up and down.
ReplyDeletea full crossing might be equal to 100 pointer at least, then 5x20 pointer=100 pointer as well.
ReplyDeleteanother scalp, made today's 60 pointer, so over 300 pointer profit this week, I think that kind of makes it more justifiable to go on a happy holiday.
ReplyDeleteTrig,
ReplyDeleteI'm trying to hold, but it’s difficult when all around are talking doom. Your Bro included !
I just gave away some point covering when it started going up again.
Going to stick to my plan and hold until my upper bank on RSI is hit. May take a day or two.
Thought you had left for hols by now?
I should coco...!
ReplyDeleteTotally missed that one.. short stopped for 5 points profit...lol
Think thats it for me today. Missed a couple of opportunities to add to long today.
Do you think todays high would count as point 11, or is it too short a timeframe with 4300s being 11..
well, no complaints, guys, every man has his own plan and trade accordingly.
ReplyDeletein a meandering day like this, bulls and bears can make some money, so in that sense, everyone is right. TG is particularly good at sniffing out any whiff of weakness in bulls these days, and he is a very nimble operator.
good luck.
Point 11 is a point in question at the moment, I think it is somewhere in the 4300's, near 4340ish, but only time will tell.
ReplyDeleteA few ups and downs seem to fit in with this reporting season quite well. If every up or down is more than 100 pointer in depth, then everyone can make some good money again.
just have the upstream moo river in the background and play the inter-play between ema20 and ema200 on hourly price chart will be useful, and mind the ema100 below too.
ReplyDeleteI won't be watching this, let limit orders do the job.
good luck
Cheers Trigger.. Heres hoping that we dont make a mess of all the moooooooss whilst youre away..lol
ReplyDeleteexploration of Point 11
ReplyDeletePeaks 4520; Point 10 4090ish;
4520-4090=430 points
430X0.382=164
4090+164=4254; strange!
430X0.5=215
4090+215=4305
430x0.618=266
4090+266=4356
This is where I think we are headed, because it would give us sufficient depth for Point 12 and Point 14, for 0.618 drop.
266x0.618=164
4356-164=4192 for Point 12;
Point 14 could be in the region near 4130ish, I think.
anyways, your guess is as good as mine.
good luck.
I am loving this. If this 3 Peaks and 1 Domed House chart pattern turns out, I will be very pleased indeed. It will be the chart pattern of 2009, for sure.
ReplyDeletePs With TG so stuffed with shorts, let's hope it comes down a bit overnight, but the market is really poised for some action here.
Daily moo river watch on ftse100
ReplyDeleteWeekly
Price: we are kissing the lowerbank of the old upstream moo river, now support turned resistance. Next resistance is near 4380.
RSI: bending up, not quite fully confirmed;
Stoch: still coming down in a bearish crossing, but showing a little sign of bending up;
Momentum: trying hardest to shape up the W.
Daily
Price chart: significantly, we have the first green para sar dot! We have now overcome ema20 at 4335 and ema100 at 4244, now possibly headed for ema200 at 4332.
RSI: very bullish, penetrated the downstream moo river and also upperbank 1 in the upstream moo river as well, turning sharply bullish;
Stoch: turning sharply bullish, penetrating the downstream moo river in one clean sweep;
Momentum: bouncing off the lowerband of the triangle, needing a little bit more to confirm full bullishness.
Hourly
Price: shaped up the upstream moo river we talked about today, with lowerband near 4226 this hour and upperbank near 4325 this hour. Overnight weakness will increase the upperbank target towards 4350/4380, per my weekly forecast of 4088-->4380; ema20 bends up to support the last candle and ema200 has crossed over in a bullish formation, now needing ema100 to rise above ema200 to be fully bullish;
RSI: in a not very sharp upstream moo river, which is more sustainable, tangling with midline at the moment;
Stoch: bounced off 43.4 this afternoon, now bullishly crossed, but reaching into the bull entropy level;
Momentum: protruding upwards.
Buy on dips and dives until this upstream moo river is negated would be the most trendriding strategy. If we rise sharply into a high hourly rsi tomorrow morning, it might bring out many a stubborn bear for a full regurgitation of the hourly rsi.
good luck and good night.
good morning all
ReplyDeletethere is still this lingering thought that last night's spike to 4280 might just be Point 11, in that case, we could well meander in a slanting flattish zone between 4270 and 4200 or 4170 as a worst case scenario.
The upstream moo river on hourly price chart is holding so well that one wonders what is going to happen now, as it dwells upon the lowerbank with no room to turn before the opening, which is a bit annoying. Could really do a bit downside as there is an opening gap of -30 pointer.
While it could go either way, it does look more likely to come down than up, so you must have your plan A and B and C ready.
Good luck.
We have made a double top now, against the midline of the upstream moo river, which is awkward.
ReplyDeletea full rise to the upperbank in the upstream moo river on hourly rsi will probably take us into 4300's or more
it is a bit tricky, but does look a bit vulnerable with that gap down there.
still, it is possible for a full crossing as the upstream moo river on hourly price is valid so far!
Double top, if you look at it another way, it is an M in the shaping. I have the sneaky suspicion that alll the hourly momentums are wanting to have a rest, but ideally it is a trending day today, maybe they will put plenty of doubt in everyone's mind, before a trend starts. As long as the upstream moo river holds, one should respect that.
ReplyDeleteI have realised how I will trade the moo rivers this morning.
Ps When I come back, I will start to cover some American banks and other shares as well. It will be fun.
watch out on the hourly, ema20,100,200.
ReplyDeleteAfraid I have taken my single 4119 off the table so no positions now. With UB on RSI and Price now reached, will short and see if we get the gap closed..
ReplyDeleteVery well done with the range and analysis Trigg. Without youre wise words this week I would of got into all sorts of trouble..
I think when the Bulls are out you are unstoppable...!
Closed 1/2 my long at 4342 from 4046 Sept. But boy it made me sweat for it. Just under 200 pts. my faith is restored.
ReplyDeleteGoing to try and let the other 1/2 run until the river breaks, which could be a few weeks or more.
Currently covering with a short, as I feel like many it s come a long way without breathing.
4146 obviously
ReplyDeleteCant resist 4350 short. Somewhere around 4300 will do..
ReplyDeleteIm amazed how a Bull run picks up momentum.
pleased with the weekly forecast, hitting both dow and ftse100 almost to the dot, now what happens to the rest of the week?
ReplyDeletecould have done better in trading, but it is a first week for a bull run, so that is good enough.
take care, folks and see you later.
good luck.