Nikkei 225-- Week 28 Moo River Watch (12th Jul to 18th July 09)

Moo River Trading System--Futures trading Made Easy: Moo River watch is based on the correlated findings amongst moo rivers on price, rsi, macd, repulse, elder ray, momentum and stochastic. Moo river trading system is a trading system, taking advantage of trendtrading or scalptrading opportunities based on findings of the Moo River Watch.

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Nikkei 225 (cash futures)

(based on 30 year advanced data charts)

Renko study

Yearly: (Japan does fascinate me, as it is the one market which has seen the giant bear market, I am deciding to switch to trade Japan instead of ftse, to benefit from the dollar strength later on as well, as profit there is in dollars. By the way, it is the Japanese who invented Renko and candles etc. I would love to meet up some of these Japanese gurus to learn from them.) We have still got some residue weakness in Japan for this year and after that, the giant right arm of the W or Wave C of the ABC basing waves could rise up big, towards 17220 minimum. Literally, it is safe to say that you could easily double your money on a conservative basis. If I were running one of the sovereign funds, I will be switching money into Japan now. Unlike France/CAC, this is one Western economy very much worth investing. This is certainly one country for long term investment, though I don't know which investment vehicles can benefit from a rise in the Japanese market. My own little share ISA on Nikkei 225, bought near 8000, has never shown any profit, even at 10000, I am a bit miffed to say the least. The Japanese moocano will be coming in waves, if not this year, then in the years to come, lasting quite a few years. My mind is racing on this one. If we keep on trading Nikkei and make profit in dollars and pile them upon until cable reaches parity, it will be a huge win win situation, results in doubling the profit by doing absolutely nothing. I am thinking long and hard here. This seems to be one of those life time opportunities not to be missed. Can anyone point out the fallacy in this plan at all?

Quarterly: Japan has not made up its mind yet and it needs to hold above 8000 as the line in the sand. But this is just a great opportunity to be in there early now or on any weakness.

Monthly: in reality, Japan is still stuck in the deepest of all bear markets with downstream moo rivers tumbling down from Everest. But from the yearly, we see a clear basing pattern and with no straight crossing in the downstream moo river possible (to sub zero), the future is bright for Japan.

Weekly: we are having a little pullback having moocanoed over 10000 recently and there is just limited downside but far more upside. Doubling the money is easily said and easily done from here.

Daily: the line in the sand is actually 7000ish, but we should not go that much down but also if you are a long term investor, you should be prepared for such a limited downside. I am falling in love with Nikkei 225 today on 11th July 2009. I must do something about that.

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Overall, while we are stuck in the historical giant bear market, the future is bright for Japan and one can easily double one's money from here and also enjoy any future dollar strength in a win win combination. I am considering to switch to trading Nikkei 225 instead of ftse100.

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Moo river watch


Price chart: this is the most fascinating stock index chart of all. We have been stuck in the giant downstream moo river since 1990. We have had one big full crossing and then the meandering across. When we started the second full crossing from 2007, we suddenly realised that it is mathematically impossible to have a full crossing any more, as that would have taken us to -3550, which can't be done apparently. So at the moment, for me, it is obvious that we are trying to shape up a giant W based rally. If you look at 1989 and 1990, those two giant yearly candles, it is possible 2009 could be a giant green candle all the way up to 16000. So in that sense, the Japanese bull festival has not started yet, the recent breach of 10000was only a trigger in the many rumbling of the giant moocano.

Momentum indicators are not showing any signs of allegiance so far to either side. So the long-term permabears are sitting on top of Moocano quite happlily.

Quarterly


Price chart: the early bulls are making their stealthy moves, building up their longs on the peace and quiet, without causing much a stir to the permabears. 8400/8500 should be the bottom of the quarterly range now whatever happens to the rest of the world. In fact, we don't have to burst until 2010, so 2009 might just be a non-eventful year on the surface but a very historical year underneath, as the lava sizzles and gathers in temperature.

Momentum indicators are keeping mum at the moment, but we are soon start a full crossing to some upperbanks. The time to get in is now, certainly you don't want to miss the Japanese Moocano.

Monthly

Price chart: we have had four green candles in a row and now we are having a red candle, but does it matter any more? The bull run is here to stay. For now, we might meander for a bit.

RSI: it is hitting the upperbank of the downstream moo river, critical moment will be coming up soon.

Other indicators are bullishly poised and stoch is not demanding and is having a W based rally off to the bull entropy level I think.

Weekly

Price chart: we are meandering across in the upstream moo river, without dropping much in price.

RSI: we are trying to digest this momentum since we reached bull entropy level in March. We are already in the 30's, without costing much in price, it must be very frustrating for permabears.

Stoch: we could do with a full drop there, as we are tangling with this overbought level with a bearish crossing.

Momentum: this one fits with my current thinking on the other stock markets around the world. We are in the upstream moo river, but we are reducing the rising angle.

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Overall, we are in the process of a pullback. For the coming week, hopefully 9000 will hold Japan up, or worst case scenario is 8800ish. So a weekly range of 9600 and 9000 might be a useful range forecast to trade upon.

Good luck.

Ps I am not trading the Japan index at the moment, but may consider trading it.