Royal Bank of Scotland-- Week 23 Moo River Watch (7th Jun to 13th June 09)

Royal Bank of Scotland

(based on 30 year advanced data charts)

Renko study

Yearly: Now we know what it looks like by falling from hero to zero, look at that chart, amazing! Look at it, unless you are a long suffering investors, it is not a pretty sight!

Quarterly: We have just reared our head up off the ground, but the rising angle is so weak and very pathetic!

Monthly: we had our first jittery even in this timid bounce and now we need to make up our mind;

Weekly: if you look closely and carefully, you can almost see a W between February and March, which seems to be the foundation of this current rally, which is really a weak one;

Daily: if you look closely enough, you can almost see an emerging weak W there;

4 hourly: this is where it becomes more interesting for the bulls. We have had a five impulsive waves down since achieving 50 pence at the beginning of May, now we seem to have started a reversal and we have just had Wave 1. There is hope.

Hourly: we had a nicely shaped W to bounce up for this current rally and this one seems to be stronger, rising at a steeper angle. We have definitely broken the downstream moo river there at 39 pence today.

=============

Moo river watch

Yearly

Price chart: if this is the trading range for this year, it will be the tightest of all yearly ranges for a FTSE100 stock;

Quarterly

Price chart: we are still stuck in the downstream moo river, with an upperbank resistance at 97 pence.

Look at the enormous W on Force Index.

Monthly

Price chart: while we have not made any advance in term of price rise, but we have managed to cross from the lowerbank to the upperbank in a horizontal way, so this is the month that we have to either destroy this downstream moo river or obey it, which is not really an option, unless we get nationalised within the month. Still, if we stretch it, we could say July is the month that this downstream moo river has to be answer for. The upperbank is near 51 pence.

While all the other momentum indicators have gone parabolic, rsi has been kept under 20, I think amongst these indicators it is showing a possibility of a Moocano eruption higher. It has been sizzling, but price has been kept under the lid for a long time. The Force Index seems to be waiting to go up to the next level.

Weekly

Price chart: we managed to smuggle ourselves out of the bear market through a narrowing bollinger band, indicating a break down or a break upwards which will be imminent. Para sar dots have gone green for a few weeks, without sending the price higher, while its angle is slightly on the rise. More adventurous bulls are getting impatient.

RSI: interestingly, we have been kept under 45 so far and now we have an oddly shaped W, perhaps ready to crack the 45 resistance.

Other momentum indicators are supportive, but somewhat losing traction with price not making much progress.

Daily

Price chart: we need to break 43 pence tomorrow to ensure survival or better, a Moocano eruption.

RSI: there is an obvious W there, as we pulled back only onto 40's, this bodes well for the bulls;

W's are emerging on other momentum indicators, such as Elder Ray, Stoch and Force index. There is hope.


=============
I have bought some shares in this bank this morning, which is a major switch for me, as I switched from sticking to quality and safe plays like HSBC and Barclays to this one, which I have always insisted on avoiding. I think we can notice a subtle switch into these so-called riskier banks, as big boys seek more value for their money. It is a gamble, as the threat of nationalisation is never too far away. But the risk and reward ration seems to suggest a brave gamble.

good luck.