Ftse100-- Week 25 Moo River Watch (21st Jun to 27th June 09)

Moo River Trading System--Futures trading Made Easy: Moo River watch is based on the correlated findings amongst moo rivers on price, rsi, macd, repulse, elder ray, momentum and stochastic. Moo river trading system is a trading system, taking advantage of trendtrading or scalptrading opportunities based on findings of the Moo River Watch.

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FTSE100 (cash futures)

(based on 30-year advanced data chart)

Renko Study

Yearly: it is hard to say whether it is a double M top, as the second top was not high enough, or a W. On yearly Renko, if we go under 3950, we are going to collapse big time. Currently, we are continuing down there.

Quarterly: we are bouncing upwards here in a V shaped rally, but we really could do with a push a bit higher, otherwise the chance of bending back down to shape up a W base is quite high;

Monthly: if you draw the long term uptrend line here, you will see the March low was supported by the long-term trendline and if you draw two upperbanks here, you will see why we are hesitating so much here, because we have hit upperbank 1. If you look back at 1988 onwards, you will see this is where prices move within a relatively stable range to consolidate and build up a base for a further rally later on. At this very month, you can see we could be shaping up the right arm of an M, where we have almost hit the apex point now with a little bit of downside, then up we go to form an M against upperbank 1. But the renko does not correspond to the price directly or closely, but it helps us to see whether the trend will be up or down.

Weekly: this is the hardest chart to draw properly and hardest picture to patternise visually. I think if you turn the chart upside down, then you could potentially see we are shaping up an inversed head and shoulder pattern, while we are shaping up the right shoulder at the moment. In this process, there seems to be a need to kiss the neckline near 4600 Renko which is 4700 on price and then a dive towards 4000/3850 to complete the messy drawing of the right shoulder.

Daily: this is where you see our 3 Peaks and 1 Domed House chart pattern perfectly and it looks like we have reached Point 10 already there, we need to bounce up and down towards 4330 renko for a few times, before we go for the Domed house.

Overall, as far as daytrading is concerned, we are in an uptrend for the medium term and a down move in the short term. If this 3+1 pattern works out, it will be the chart pattern of 2009!

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Moo River watch

Yearly

Price chart: we are in the middle of falling across from upper bollinger band to the lower bollinger band. For now, we are trying to hang onto the bollinger midline. The yearly pivotal levels are 4867 for resistance and 3200 for support.

All momentum indicators are bearishly poised or configured and we seem to have unfinished bear business here judging from the level of rsi and stoch. WMA20 is supporting at 3956.

Quarterly

Price chart: I can't really draw any moo rivers there. The pivotal points are between 4568 and 3346, with 4013 as midline. We are stuck under WMA50 which is near 4240. And we are trying to draw some life support from the lower bolling band. On the line chart, this has been a V shaped rally, though we have not rallied enough to justify that. There is every chance of bending back down to shape up a W base there.

Momentum indicators are bending up, but no visible W's there. Still, there will be more upside than downside, in terms of potential.

Monthly

Price chart: this is where we can draw the downstream moo river and divide it into two halves At the moment, we are tangling with the midline, with pivotals between 4714 and 4066. After three green monthly candles, this one is turning red for now. This is a major turning point. We must break this midline resistance if we are to continue this bull run. The WMA50 and WMA50 are tangling as well, almost crossing there.

Momentum indicators are supportive of further bull run, though rsi has bent downwards. Otherwise, everything else looks quite bullishly intended.

Weekly

Price chart: well, I will still be working on the 3 Peaks and 1 Domed House pattern, though it is not easy to identify Point 10 and it is not easy to tell how far down it goes that this pattern has been falsified. With a peak range between 4500 and 4300, I think 4100 is the maximum downside allowed. The WMAs are crossing bearishly, so this is overall a bear market rally, with substantial unfinished bear market business to come, though one can not ignore this rally either, as it is a meandering upwards from lowerbank to the upperbank. Bollinger bands are flattening and bending up and WMA is bending a bit, though not conclusive.

Momentum indicators are bearishly poised with correlated Ms, though rsi is still within the support of an upstream moo river, though we are getting very close to the lowerbank now.

Daily

Price chart: we have just had a bullish crossing between WMA50 and WMA20, which is normally bullish. And by my drawing, I reckon we have hit lowerbank 1 today, with the lowerbank 2 far down there near 3840. We are stuck in a triangle here, under 4450 and above 4200ish and this triangle will allow a maximum meandering till 30th July.

Momentum indicators: rsi has gone really odd shaped now, stoch has bulllishly crossed and Momentum has hit the lowerbank of a long running triangle from Oct 2008.

All in all, the bears are threateningn to break the banks though bulls might fight back against ma200 4170 ( I think I realise I am using the wrong ma in WMA, the normal MA is more popularly followed).

Good night and good luck.