Dow-- Week 25 Moo River Watch (21st Jun to 27th June 09)

Moo River Trading System--Futures trading Made Easy: Moo River watch is based on the correlated findings amongst moo rivers on price, rsi, macd, repulse, elder ray, momentum and stochastic. Moo river trading system is a trading system, taking advantage of trendtrading or scalptrading opportunities based on findings of the Moo River Watch.

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Dow (cash futures)

(based on 30-year advanced data charts)

Renko study

Yearly: this is no doubt in my mind that this is a head and shoulder pattern and we are testing the neckline now, a break here will be very seriously bearish.

Quarterly: we have bounced off the neckline and over a key resistance line near 8000. We should get closer to 8850 before we regurgitate, remember this is on Renko, not on immediate price;

Monthly: this is bullish in the immediate term on monthly as we have overcome some key resistance lines there near 8200ish. A 9000 on Renko is a feasible target.

Weekly: we have a hard place and some sort of ceiling here, but we did manage to break a key resistance on the way up, so the overall tone is still a bullish one. Because we have gone so high up, we seem to be well supported by the long term trendlines, with key support 1 near 8100/800 and key support 2 at 7300/7600.

Daily: We are stuck in a triangle at the moment, below 8800 and above 8100 renko.

Overall, we are shaping this massive right shoulder, in this ginormous head and shoulder pattern, which could take years to complete and we all know what follows a head and shoulder pattern, normally the neckline is broken and more downside to follow. The left shoulder took 10 years to shape up and this right shoulder is only into its second year of construction, so permabears baying for 6000 and below must wait for a few years yet! I would think at the moment, we are in a buying zone, with 9000 as the midline there. Work out your own trading plans to see how you can benefit the most from the medium term flat trading zone, though with a longer term bearish bias.

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Moo River Watch

Yearly

Price chart: every week, I look at this chart and try to see different things. Still, I think I prefer the diamond pattern the best at the moment. As we realise that the March low as a jab at the decades long term upstream trendline, which is also the apex point of my diamond. The benefit of trading within a diamond that you know your boundaries very well. Diamonds are like triangles, which happen when the market is caught between two minds. One wonders where the next Microsoft is going to come to lift the American empire into fresh realms of spectacular economic growth. Potentially, we could operate within this diamond until the year 2023, based on some persistent sideway meandering. While we are in this diamond, the market is not going to exhibit super bull run or super bear run. Boringn a prospect it might be, it might just be very much tradable for us daytraders. WMA20 is currently supporting at 8245 with key pivotal at 9818.

All momentum indicators are bearish poised or configures, though some could do with a bounce up like elder ray and rsi. The bears are in control here.

Quarterly

Price chart: the good thing here for the world is that we have hit the lowerbank of the downstream moo river and no matter what permabears and pessimists tell you, we are bouncing up and we are going to bounce up and down in a slight upwards zone for many a quarter yet. So it is time to put your fear away and give your greed a free reign to run for quite a few quarters yet. Buy on dips and dives is the best strategy there, though it can be equally said that selling near top of this meandering zone is also a good strategy. You can be a winner both as a bear and bull in this meandering trading period. The problem with trading is that one has to snap out of one dominant mentality quite sharpl, like from greed to fear, from fear to greed, trading is a constant yoyo between these two. The longer it takes you to switch, the more you are going to suffer. The market has no mercy for late jumpers onto the bandwagon. For now, we are stuck betwen 7700 and 8900 pivotal points.

All momentum indicators are supportive with a bounce, though it is not yet signifant enough and macd is still bearishly configured. The levels on rsi and stoch should provide bargain hunters and stubborn permabulls plenty of reason to buy.

Monthly

Price chart: we continue our season of meandering. WMA50 and 20 have crossed over bearishly, while WMA200 is now acting as the ceiling for any adance against 8750. The pivotal range is between 8200 and 8700 with everything outside the range as overbought or oversold. We now have a red monthly candle after three green ones.

All momentum indicators are bullishly configured, with a few correlated w's there, off low levels or lowerbanks in predominantly downstream moo rivers.

Weekly

Price chart: we seem to be stuck between WMA 20 and 50, between 8350 and 9050. At this momennt, the price chart is bullishly poised, though we are having a second red candle here.

Momentum indicators are showing signs of topping down in correlated M shapes, indicating a near term market willingness to correct properly.



Daily

Price chart: Overall, we seem to be shaping up a head and shoulder pattern, with a need to touch upon 8200ish first. Eventually a dive towards 7800 can not be ruled out. There is just this unfinished dive to be done before the market can rally.

Momentum indicators are continuing downwards, though stoch seems to have a potential to W up there.

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Overall, the near term scenario is downwards probing for the bears to find out how determined the bulls are and there are no visible bullish signs yet.