Gold-- Week 26 Moo River Watch (28th Jun to 4th July 09)

Moo River Trading System--Futures trading Made Easy: Moo River watch is based on the correlated findings amongst moo rivers on price, rsi, macd, repulse, elder ray, momentum and stochastic. Moo river trading system is a trading system, taking advantage of trendtrading or scalptrading opportunities based on findings of the Moo River Watch.
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Gold (spot futures)

(based on 30 year advanced data charts)

Renko study

Yearly: you always wonder who in their right mind would have persisted in buying all the way from 2000 low to this year's top. It has been such a powerful superbull run and it is not showing any signs of weakness on renko yet.

Quarterly: while it is possible that it has had a pullback and now the bull trend can continue. But it is more likely that this is the shaping of the Head for a potential Head and Shoulder Pattern.

Monthly: here we have an almost perfect double top M shape on the chart. If we do not overcome the previous top, then the journey downwards is almost guaranteed towards the apex level first, near 727 Renko. Even here, we can see the shaping of a Head and Shoulder Pattern as well.

Weekly: the superbull market must have left many a bear lying crying aloud in pain as we are so high away from the long term rising trendline near 725ish. The chart pattern is still that of a Giant M top, while we are shaping the right shoulder with another double top M shape. A break of 875 is required to bring down the whole glistening house with fake gold.

Daily: we have had four red renkos in a row, which is encouraging for bears.

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Overall, the topping weakness is as plain as the Spanish plain, but raging bulls are not letting their longs go yet, as they have learnt in this superbull run, every time they let their longs drop, they suffered a lot of distress and losses. But there willl be a trigger levels when all the bigboy bulls will run for the exit first and bolt the door after them. It is never too later to rethink your bullish stance on gold.

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Moo river watch

Yearly

Price chart: the market is hiding its hands behind its back, as we have an inside bar on the candle chart so far, the market makers are saying we don't want you to know our ACE cards for 2009 et.

Momentum indicators are struggling with their bull entropy levels, collectively, with Elder ray is bending downwards. Certainly the bullish momentum is waning.

Quarterly

Price chart: we are holding onto this top like leeches to a bloody leg, perhaps the last bull leg. The para sar dots have gone red the 4th time in a row now.

Bearishness is weighing on most momentum indicators, while rsi and stoch holding onto their bull entropy levels. A drop below 70 for rsi would be a clear signal to all that gold price needs to come down. It is not a question of whether, but a question of when.

Monthly

Price chart: the double top here has been created on the most obvious bearish divergence. Still, we are still hanging onto the last straw.

Momentum indicators imply the bulishness has turned upside down and now we must watch whether the bearishness is gaining in weight.

Weekly

Price chart: we need to break 866 to shape the double top M shape and 681 to ensure the bigger double top M shape can take place as well.

RSI: there seems to be a long running downstream moo river there now.

All other momentum indicators are poised bearishly, with momentum continuing its journey towards bearish entropy level.

Daily

Price chart: we are tangling with a key resistance line.

Momentum indicators are bullish configured, so perhaps we need another jab high to seal the big falls to follow.


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Overall, the superbull market in gold has come to a secretive stop, though not seen by many an eye yet. The underlying momentums have turned bearish, though price is holding onto the highs, as if there is some unfinished business for them there. I don't trade gold futures or shares, but I do think this is a chance of a lifetime to be a permabear on gold, if you could handle the high volatility and high risks there.

Good luck.