Let's cut the cheese and go for this 3 Peaks + 1 Domed House chart pattern on FTSE100 (obviously implicitly embedded in the underlying moo rivers).
Let's redraw this chart pattern on the daily price chart
Point 1: 28 Apr low;
point 2: May 1 low;
point 3: 8 May high;
Point 4: 14 May low;
Point 5: 19 May high;
point 6: 21 May low;
Point 7: 1 Jun high;
Point 8: 3 Jun low;
Point 9: 12 Jun high;
Point 10: 18 Jun low;
Point 11: 19 Jun high;
the following are speculations for next week:
Point 12: 22 Jun low, 4300ish;
Point 13: 23 Jun high, 4380ish;
Point 14: 24 Jun low, 4300ish;
Point 15: 25 Jun high to reach 4510;
Point 16: 26th Jun low: 4430ish.
(so everyone in the street knows the weekly range is 4300-4500 again!)
and we reach the top of the Domed House around 2nd July and tank down big around 4th July, a month after my friend Market Bear's prediction of a big fall due on 4th June, the seed of bearishness was implanted perhaps on that day, but it took the market a full month to realise that we needed a really substantial fall, like a few hundred points on ftse100 and a few thousand points on Hangseng42.
Good luck (and I stand to be corrected by the market)
Ps The original article on the 3 Peaks + 1 Domed House: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/wood061806.html
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now the decision is yours
ReplyDeleteplan A: hold for 4380 and reload;
Plan B: hold for 4500 and reload;
Plan C: hold for 4680, well, there are very few in the world who would do that?!
ftse100 (cash futures)
ReplyDeleteEntropy/Equilibrium watch
(based on a correlated study of RSI/Stoch)
Yearly: the bears are in control here and there seems to be plenty to come yet;
Quarterly: rsi seems to hit its entropy point earlier than the normal 30 or under level, while Stoch is trying to brake hard too; divergence there;
Monthly: we have reached the entropy point for bearishness on both rsi and stoch and there is a nice W on rsi to bounce back up through 30's.
Two possibilities here:
1. rsi to bend down towards 33 to allow Stoch to shape up a W base, this will ensure a much stronger rally for months to come;
2. rsi to keep on rising towards upperbank near 45.
Both are bullish, 1 is more bullish for the medium term and 2 is bullish for the short term.
Weekly: this is getting complicated, because stoch has reached entropy point for the bull run while rsi is nowhere near the bullish entropy point and both are bending down, Stoch is bending down, though there might be another blip to shape up an M there, while rsi has an M, but it has an extra left arm, with the possibility to shape up an oddly shaped W. It is quite likely that this coming week is the Triggering week for another run up.
Daily: It is not unusual for rsi to be supported by 40ish level, in a bull run, though in the correlated watch on both, the bears are in control here, we might have a Wave 4 up here in momentum, but there seems to be needing a final Wave down to reach the bearish entropy point. Any rises on prices will be achieved on bearish divergence, which will ensure more bears to pile on, once price has achieved a good level, over 4500 towards 4680, as the fall that follows is almost guaranteed with low risk. The alternative scenario to what I have speculated according to the 3+1 pattern is as follows:
A. a rise to 4500ish in the early week and then tank down towards 4380;
B. a rise to 4450ish, tank down towards 4380 and then rise to 4500ish.
We will soon find from what happens in Asia tonight.
good night.
good morning all
ReplyDeletea very strangely Moocanic week coming out of the blue for many bears.
remember we talked about entropy point or reversal point this weekend. a lot of these indices and shares have not reached their respective entropy points on weekly rsi while weekly stochs have turned sharply bullish, get ready for some global Moocano eruptions this week.
if you have to be a bear, don't know why you have to be, very tight stops will kill your orders straight away and very wide stops will hurt your capital big time.
best thing is wait for the entropy point to be reached on weekly rsi across the board and then do your bear business.
as for ftse100, it is within 4450-4580 zone that we will take a breather and then hopefully we are going for 4680 finally.
bulls have been hurt in their pride for the past few weeks, so when there is a Moocano eruption, don't stand in their way, they will hoove you left, right and centre, before long, you will be a blue bear all over.
have a nice week.
the alternative to the 3 peark +1 domed house pattern interpretation is a reluctant bull flag pattern, either way, we will be going up from here, though 4500-4520 has been very difficult to crack so far.
ReplyDeletethis week, I will be in on Tuesday and Friday.
ReplyDeletewatch more longer term charts is perhaps the recommended action this week, daily onwards, watch that triangle on daily momentum carefully.
good day
then again, on a Monday, I tend to be over-optimistic!
ReplyDeletelook across the past data on weekly, have a look, this pattern has been repeated before and it is definitely one of bullish continuation pattern.
there is hope.
well, the 3 peaks + 1 domed house scenario seems to be working, as we hit today's low now, now we need to hold 4300, or maximum 4250 and then work our way up. the nature of FTSE100 fits so well with the 3 peak +1 domed house scenario, as it is conservative and then stubborn.
ReplyDeletegood luck. out now.
Im a little wary so order to buy at 4275. If misses will buy 4330.
ReplyDeleteLets see.
GL all
well, it is certainly a moo disaster, to have got it so wrong today and this week.
ReplyDeletebut not to worry, it is never easy to pinpoint Point 10. If you look at the original 3+1 scenario, Point 10 is almost the same depth down from the the three peaks, i.e., 4300-4500 for peaks, then, 4300-4100 for Point 10, which is quite a plausible scenario.
now here is the truth
ReplyDeleteI got delayed at work, as usual and started to head home about 9:30pm. I came out of the building and was dazzled by this dark red skyline, which looks exactly how a Volcanic skyline would be.
Is this a sign of things to come?
I will do some more study later, after some dinner.
nbt
ReplyDeletegood call yesterday!
im hiding this in here Mr Trigger.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.timewave2012.com/tools/calculator/
madness..perhaps. However it is the reason I sold alot of my shares 2 years ago.
Have a play with some of the dates after a couple of glasses of vino..