FTSE
Hourly
The bullflag shaped between 7th May and 18th May remain intact after this severe bear assault.
RSI: We are W'ing up from a low of 22.9, which is really useful to have for a reversal. While we play the 4300-4500 range, I remember a long while ago half way through this rally from March, I had the inkling that this one will be ended with an expanded triangle topping pattern.
If the bullflag holds tomorrow, then we should aim for 4550/4600 minimum, though I suspect this time we will catch some bears by surprise, possibly ending somewhere between 4700 and 4800 (the flagpole calculation has yielded a bullflag breakout target of 4740).
MACD: possible W there as well, though a weak one to start with;
Momentum: W as well.
In fact, we have W's all over the price and momentum indicators on hourly, and the bullflag holds, which bodes well for the bulls for another run up.
Ideally, in the final square of the diamond, this is the week to reach the top of the square of 4600, so tomorrow might see some dramatic rise, into the UK's bank holiday where UK will be absent from a rising market around the world. It just feels fitting.
You can draw the upstream moo river on hourly rsi as follows:
link up bottom of 4pm on 13th May and 7pm on 15th May to form upperbank 1; parallel to link up top of 9am on 20th May to form upperbank 2 and top of 3pm on 18th May to form upperbank 3, which shouldn't come too useful, unless we go for a dramatic parabolic run.
You can draw similar upstream moo rivers on other momentum indicators as well, particularly on Momentum, repulse and macd. So here we go, for another patient run of 5 waves, perhaps.
Wave 1 from rsi 23 to 73ish; on price, possibly from 4311 to 4460;
Wave 2 from 73ish to 50ish; on price, possibly from 4460 to 4400;
Wave 3 from 50ish into 70's again; on price, possible from 4400 to 4600;
Wave 4 from 70's to 50ish; on price, possibly from 4600 to 4550;
Wave 5 from 50ish to 70's again, on price, possibly from 4550 to 4700/4800 top.
With dow also holding its hourly bullflag with a W's across hourly price, rsi and other momentum indicators, and Hong Kong holds above the upperbank of its old downstream moo river, Japan also has W on its hourly rsi, it seems a global rally is imminent after this healthy pullback. This time, hopefully, we will be going for some big numbers.
good luck and good night.
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it won't happen in one day, we have got the last week of May and the first week of June to sort out this finale run for the bulls.
ReplyDeletegood luck.
we are more or less where we closed yesterday, so not much a gap here, but think again, we had a gap which was not filled yesterday near 4470ish.
ReplyDeleteAsia is resilient and Japan has not touched 10000 yet, so I am hopeful for a gradual start to another run north.
the only thing that concerns me is the impletion of the crossing from upperbank to lowerbank on ftse daily, just that little more there.
ReplyDeletebut I am happy to take on that risk. once we are over 4410, we might be carrying the course of action as forecasted in this moo river watch last night.
ReplyDeleteanother spike into 4300 or slightly lower is not out of the question, but overall, we might reverse yesterday's pullback to gradually build up momentum for the journey north.
on the hourly, you can see 4 hourly jabs at the upperbank of the bullflag yesterday and the market refused it.
ReplyDeleteon the hourly rsi, we rose from a W and crossed one resistance line and had a continuation W and now lies upon that resistance line for support.
Interesting market tody.
if you go through to 30th April 2009 to that post about drawing moo rivers on cable, then you have a look at the daily chart of cable, you can see how these simple correlated upstream moo rivers have served this whole rally, while so many are selling cable en masse.
ReplyDeleteshame at the time, not many are interested in learning drawing moo rivers.
I think I will stick to never publishing charts here, but showing some sketching details here and there, so that people must learn to draw the moo rivers themselves.
ReplyDeleteI am out and about today, so good luck to your trading.
let's have a little linguistic talk for the moo river system.
ReplyDeletein an uptrend, when I say meandering across, meanding a downward intended crossing from the upperbank to the lowerbank; and vice versa.
and also, be careful with me being a duality of moo river watch and trader, the watcher is more objective and the trader has a specific approach to trading, which is different from most (no conventional stop loss!).
take care.
Hi Trigger,
ReplyDeleteClosed the long at lunch, and now meandering along this downstream moo river..! Pretty chuffed that my limit sell was hit at 4380. Based the trade on the 4370 resistance holding up and also the DS on RSI 1hr.
Looking forward to weekend analysis. Feel I have missed a few opportunities this week. Mainly due to work and a son with chicken pox!. Have to safe my real trading for the winter and rainy days. lol
well done, and have a nice weekend.
ReplyDelete