Monthly
While we are still crossing from the lowerbank to the upperbank 2 on monthly rsi, this for me is still very much a buy on dips and dives sort of market condition and so far we have not finished the crossing yet.
Weekly
This is the tricky part.
Price chart: We are in an upstream moo river since the March low. The longer an uptrend holds, the stronger it is and it is at such a healthy angle of +45 degree. I am seeing there are a few more weeks of bull run yet. From a +45 degree rising angle, the moo river could change its course, to a parabolic run of +60 degrees or a softening blow to the bears at +30 degrees. We have not even tried such variation yet to test out the resolve from both sides.
For this week, we are right in the middle of the final square of the diamond, so it won't surprise me if we are stuck in more or less the same range as last week, 4300 and 4500. The candles pattern seems to require this week to be a tight range one, to shape up a bull flag, though the diamond square seems to suggest that this is the week for an attack upon 4600/4800 top. For this week, the maximum range in the diamond square is between 4120 and 4620.
RSI: we are in an upstream, in correlation with the upstream on price, we have also hit upperbank 1 and now has the possibilitiy of shaping up either a M or W, at 54.7, it is still not overly overbought.
1. to shape up an M: rsi might come down to test the old upperbank of the downstream moo river from last year, now resistance turned support at 46.5ish, this will mean a big drop on price in a pullback towards 4180ish.
2. to shape up a W: we drop a little on to 51.7 and then rise up biggish next week, to attach upperbank 1 again at least. This move requires price to hold above 4300.
All the other momentum indicators are stil rising, but a bit toppish.
Daily
We have a pair of correlated W here on price and rsi, which is rather encouraging to bulls. But RSI had a bit of a bender yesterday, if we want to continue this bull run, we must continue the rise today. A pair of correlated W on price and rsi should normally give the bulls a good run of a few hundred points, though this W on rsi is based on 56, so half as leathal.
While on price, the bulls are aggressive, the stories on momentum indicators are a mixed bag of hesitation.
RSI: that W was subject to severe attack from bears yesterday and it is hanging onto lowerbank 1. While we are in the upstream moo rivers here, with rsi having reached 74 early with a M against upperbank 1, it is suggesting a top will be in place shortly. A rise towards 74 might be the trigger for bulls to book profit and bears to jump in for a serious seige.
While I am persisting in buying on dips and dives until we have seen 4600/4800 top, bulls need to be wary of the imminent possibility of a top and a major pullback to keep the bull run a healthy one.
Good luck.
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NBT
ReplyDeletegood morning, let's move here, as it is fresher than the other one. I will be holding onto the ride as this W on price and correlated on rsi is something that does not happen everyday.
Price W is based on mid bollinger line as support and rsi was shaped almost off the lowerbank1, so both are useful to bulls, and also Momentum has the possibility to shape up a further W against the lowerbank to spike out of a triangle.
it will be an interesting day today.
I am hoping for price to hold above 4400 (barring a quick spike into 4380), while 4 hourly rsi should hold above 54 for the bull run to continue.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the hourly, we might get an early dive to excite many a bear into 44400/4380 and after that, it is an all bull day.
Maybe, it is by 9:30am that we have discovered that the Brits are out shopping in big crowds to spend our way out of the recession again.
We will see.
Once we have seen 4600/4700 top, I think we might even see 5050ish in the not too distant future, though that requires a global parabolic ride.
ReplyDeleteFollowing my comments yesterday, 4400 is now the dividing line between bulls and bears, above 4400, bulls are more favoured, below 4400, bears come out to play, but the human psychology determines bulls like to buy under 4400, which feels cheaper and bears like to sell above 4400, which feels overbought or expensive, it is a tragic of the psychological warfare from the market, the market is anti human nature.
I am trying hard to convert myself to trade in tune with what I see in the moo rivers, rather than one based on the so-called common sense, or human nature/psychology. The combination of individuals shapes up a collective identity in the form of the market may not be humanistic.
A fine morning it is too.
ReplyDeleteI will only have a couple of opportunities to check in today so hoping to have an idea of where things are going by midday.
as you say all a bit mixed up.
Back at 9 to reassess.
there is an opening gap, as we closed at 4482 yesterday.
ReplyDeletemoo river watchers
ReplyDeleteif you load up Momentum Indicator itself on daily, link up tops on 8th Feb and 23 Mar and parallel to link up bottom of 1 Feb to form upperbank 1 and bottom of 20 Jan to form lowerbank.
There we have an upstream moo river, with one lowerbank and two upperbanks.
If this river holds, the upside potential is tremendous and it might shape up a W there against the lowerbank.
The diamond square wall is near 4570 and the big diamond wall itself is near 4650ish.
Supports are at 4460; 4400; 4350 and 4300 final.
on the hourly, we have various upstream moo rivers there across price and momentum indicators, though some of the lowerbanks are being tested now.
ReplyDeleteloaded up some bank shares, lloyds and Barc, missed out on about 200 pounds extra profit on barc yesterday, but it is a market where it is difficult to stay out of it.
ReplyDeleteI took some drastic measures with my charts for ftse100. I deleted all the drawings which have served the bear market very well and now have drawn an upstream moo river on weekly price chart. I will provide more details about that later.
ReplyDeletethere is the diamond, there is the upstrem moo river on daily and weekly, but why is that I am seeing a rise to 4820ish and a drop back towards 4450?
ReplyDeletestick to the diamond and stick to the moo river until otherwise...
trading is becoming increasingly difficult, best thing to do that is switch off and let the market do its own tricks
I retain the bullish stance for now
we closed in London at 4468, any further weakness, there will be another up gap there.
ReplyDeleteHourly rsi is almost touching the lowerbank of this big upstream moo river now. I wish it could come down a bit more for me to reload longs.
it is a bit of struggle for both sides, bulls and bears, neither is getting the satisfaction of a run.
how strange I suddenly realised that the gang on III who tend to play the random red arrow game are actually the gang of professional traders in the City, who are highly qualified and highly paid, but equally bored and under tremendous pressure, so they have the arrogance and self-confidence to play idiots on the III forum, how funny this discovery is!
ReplyDeletebought one 4418, it has been a long wait, will load another near 4350ish, it will be a massive opening gap, though not guranteed to fill, I am still in the buy on dips and dives mode, anyways.
ReplyDeleteNBT
ReplyDeleteany move yet?
I think you are right. either that or they are all oscar..lol
ReplyDeleteThings are setting up well for tomorrow, we are on the lowerbank. A poss W shaping up. A nice big gap. Eliott wavers on board and the red tickers in force.. all ties in..lol
long at 4410...Unfortunately I am away tomorrow so ideally would like to make gap in morn and set a stop around 3450. Poss add further up.. Will be getting myself in the moment between 7 and 9 tomorrow. Hope you have had a good evening.
ps. enjoyed the philosophising today...
pps. jealous re pool table in garage. Used to have one in mine BC (before child) boo hoo.. just an old dartboard now..
daily range
ReplyDelete4400--4450/60 inner range
above 4460, we should really give 4550/4600 a go today;
below 4400, we might test 4330/4300, key support.
This 4300-4500 range looks stubborn.
good luck.
daily price chart: can you see that M on bollinger upperband? and the possible shaping of an M on price chart as well. this is either an advanced warning for the topping and tipping ahead or it is an active indicator for a topping and tipping now.
ReplyDeleteSince we hit the upperbank on 6th may/11th may, we are in a crossing over to the lowerbank mode in this upstream moo river or the final square of the diamond. The crossing over range seems to be between 4300-4500, with occasional spikes and dives out of this range.
While we hold above 4300, we might test the top limit. 4800ish is a level on fib, while the market will be mostly fascinated by a triple top near 4700ish and that could happen on 4th June, strangely.
I have decided to scalp 50 pointer a go, as this is not a proper crossing or trendtrading range from lowerbank to the upperbank and we are meandering across from upperbank to the lowerbank, so limited ambition might be more useful. I wish I started yesterday, didn't do anything at all yesterday.
Anyways, the market teaches you something new everything and the old lessons come back to teach you again somedays too.
I am caught in two minds here, though still I am going to stick to scalping.
ReplyDeleteon the hourly rsi, last night's fall has turned it into the downstream moo river.
this could mean that any bounce up will be sold by aggressive bears and we might be in a downmove to test out 4330/4300 support againe. All the other hourly momentum indicators have falled out their upstream moo river as well, as a period of bottom probing and regrouping for the bears is a more likel scenario.
an early gap rise, then some top meandering, after that, I think it is more likely we are going to come down first to shape up a base again. Will be interesting to see whether it will stay above the upperbank of the bull flag between 7th and 18th May on the hourly.
ReplyDeletewill go check out the bull flag on a chart pattern site as well.
we closed yesterday at 4468, now we are at 4411, so 57 pointer gap
ReplyDeletedon't know how far it will take us, still we might leave this gap unfilled and leave it as a reason for a rise later on.
we will see.
to be honest,I think the loading up on lloyds shars is a mistake, I should have focused on hsbc and barc, oh well, succumbed to greed then
ReplyDeleteI am still torn between scalping and trendtrading today. having missed out for about 100 pointer yesterday as I was holding out for trendtrading, today might be the day though.
ReplyDeleteon daily rsi, I hope you have still got the upstream moo rivers. It is tangling with lowerbank 1, though we had a W starter. so potentially this today could be the Wave 3 day towards 4550 or 4600. Would I kick myself if I missed this ride in some way? greed!
decided to scalp my way up or down!
all scalpers
ReplyDeletelooking out for a top near hourly rsi 56 or 62.
vicious leg down at the open, now there is a gap there to be filled some time
ReplyDeletethe market has forced my hand here, I could do with a few scalps today, but now that the market has turned out like this, I am holding out for a ride north later, no more scalps for me today, I'd rather go out shopping than anything else.
ReplyDeletelimit orders at the ready, this could be one big trending day towards 4600.
PS I will go out and give some money to charities and do some shopping of fresh fish, fruits and veg.
have a nice day
also going to leave my small long to it. Not confident that gap will close. But maybe if we turn our backs, shop get back to nature, whatever.. it may just reward us later..
ReplyDeleteSee you later navigator..
nbt
almost ready to go out now
ReplyDeletedaily rsi, lowerbank 1 breached, lowerbank 2 is near 50ish, not looking good at the moment.
but it is 4300-4500 range, so both sides will be probed one way or another.
greed is coming back to me, I am scalping here for a bit, hopefully it pays for the shopping
ReplyDeletebought one at 4378.
I am on III, not going great so far, also need to go out shopping, but IG has started functioning.
ReplyDeletedone shopping, got rained on and smiled upon by, so not a bad day overall
ReplyDeletedow and ftse both try to test the bull flag, ftse near 4330 and dow near 8250.
stopped out. such is life. Was not at all comfortable with my position this morning but alas Mr Greed kept me from closing.
ReplyDeleteI do however feel happier down here at 4330, long I am.
holding till 4500.lol
need to sort my charts out tonight. Not quite sure which rivers are valid on hourly.
sorry to hear that, but that is trading, you win some and you lose some, the trick is to win more than the losses.
ReplyDeleterefer to my new daily watch for drawing, hopefully they will work.
good luck tomorrow.