FTSE100 (cash future)
(Based on 30 Year advanced data charts)
I have lost all my moo rivers yesterday through a systems change at my market maker and I forgot to back them up on prints or saved copies, so I have to redraw all the moo rivers, which is going to take a lot of time to recover. Yet, the beauty of the Moo River Trading System is very much in the drawing. You have to draw out the alternatively and keep an open mind about your drawing and you have to draw as diligently as possible, as you will never step into the same moo river twice.
Quarterly
Price Chart: tentatively, I have drawn out the path forward till Q2 2010, on the basis that 4300 key support holds firm. If that hypothesis works, then this quarter's top is near 4680ish, rather than 4800 or 5000. And if this hypothesis works out, then we will see this year's high in Q4, which is exactly the opposite copy of last year's movements. While bulls are in vogue at the moment by trading buying on dips and dives on gritted teeth and handsome rewards, bears must be patient to lay out ambush near the upperbank of this upstream moo river. Watch out, when I mention we have hit the upperbank, that is a hint for a good bear claw out once in a while. Meanwhile, one might work out a strategy based on this particular scenario. If 4300 is broken firmly, then we have to redraw the moo river here.
RSI (I am liking this real-time chart a lot, as there are so many more facilities to play with, like the alarm, which is such a brilliant facility): for now, we have to say we are in a ginormouse downstream moo river from Q4 1987. While we are bouncing up, we can easily cave back down big time any time, as we are hanging in the middle of the bottom half of this downstream moo river. I have divided this downstream moo river into two halves, and set an alarm there when we touch the midline, which seems to be in Q3 or Q4 if things go well. I will give you a shout when that happens.
Other momentum indicators are supportive, by bouncing up from oversold levels, nothing specific to mention.
Monthly
Price chart (I like this real-time chart a lot more, as you can move to the left and right so easily): while we still use the same upstream moo river scenario from the Quarterly, on the monthly, you have to modify it in such a way that it does not breach the quarterly moo river. So I have redraw some new banks to fit in with the quarterly moo river. This tells us that we will not reach the top of this quarter until next month. The maximum top target we might hit for May is near 4580ish. Well, we have got this week to hit it. While it is the maximum target, it might not happen, the primary target this month is to hold up above 4300, though hitting upperbank targets are bullish/confirmation behaviours as well.
RSI: we have had a beautifully shaped W to bounce up from last year's dive, but we are still very much stuck in the bear market or the ginormous downstream moo river. We have bounced in a W with such a shape that does not allow me to draw an upstream moo river, so it is just a bounce, not off the solid lowerbank as we did not get there last year and we are headed towards two possible upperbanks. I have an alarm there and will let you know we get closer to them. But with this kind of bounce, it can finish any time.
Elder Ray: we are in similar position as RSI, so I will keep you updated.
Momentum: similiar position, but it does allow you to draw an upstream moo river or crossing there, alarm set there.
Weekly
(I am so glad that I have lost all the moo rivers in one go last night, now this is a giant leap forward for Moo River Watch system, I can almost feel the excitement in me as a moo river watcher, because I feel like I have finally cracked the century old problem of whether Man makes history or history makes man!!!!!!!!!!)
Price Chart: I have to redraw again to fit in the monthly and quarterly moo rivers. I am still learning about this fitting process, which is an incredible experience. I will never publish any moo river charts here, in order to encourage all of you to draw your own moo rivers and also the moo rivers never stand still, so you can only rely on the Moo River Watch system, if you are able to draw and adapt to changing market situations. Remember, the key task for this week, the last week in May is to hold above 4300, anything else is a big bonus. If we can hit the monthly top target near 4580, it will be fantastic.
RSI: this is where the most significant development took place in the middle of April, where bulls have successfully broken the ongoing downnstream moo river and have now carved out an upstream moo river. (I am still learning about the alarm, as sometimes it allows me to set it and other times it does). While the rising angle is a very healthy +45 degrees, we might need to lessen that at a later stage to be more sustainable.
MACD: we are in a downstream moo river at the moment, not as bullish as RSI.
Elder Ray: it is warning of a weekly top with a M there at top levels.
Other indicators are still bullishly configured.
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lots to do today, so will not be there a lot of times, as the path is quite clear to me, so all I am doing is hold and do nothing with limit orders towards 4300 again, just in case.
ReplyDeleteotherwise, it is time to sit out really.
PS The view from the summit might only be gained if longs are held over this weekend and I am prepared for that. Next week's huge payout will be a killer for bears who are stuck, a hefty price to pay for going short too early, but then again, we won't go higher on a vertical line, so there is a place for bears and bulls to make loads of money.
there is a gap down there in yesterday's bounce off 4300 near 4345, will be interesting to see what happens. It is a long week, we can not shoot up too fast, otherwise, we hit the roof too early, it has got to be timed perfectly, to challenge bulls to hold longs over this weekend!
ReplyDeletethe challenge to a trader is that the market presents an illusion that you could make money both ways. While the possibility is there, the impact on the human psychology is a devious one.
ReplyDeleteit is best to ride a trend one way, one will feel most comfortable such a ride, but the occasional greed does get in the way, as one will see there are opportunities to make money the other way sometimes as well.
notice the bullish crossing of ma200 under ma20 on hourly chart, though we need a pullback, the market has turned bullishly intended.
ReplyDeleteon hourly rsi, if we can hold above 39ish, then we will have another wave up.
draw that upstream moo river on hourly rsi with two upperbanks.
well, last night's 250 pointer was a bit too early, could have made 300 pointer if held this morning, but it is just a taster, we are not out of the woods yet, until we get over 4480.
ReplyDeleteout for a bit now.
not much happened so far, unless you have been an aggressive bear this morning for a gaptrade about 30 pointer.
ReplyDeletewent out and had a breath of fresh air, now need to sort out the moo rivers.
trading should be quite straight forward, because the market is asking two questions, one for the bears and one for the bulls.
ReplyDelete1. can 4300 be broken by bear claws;
2. can 4450 be horned open by bulls.
I have lost that original diamond on weekly price chart now, but I have drawn a new one, which seems to be making a lot of sense to me as well.
so the consequences for bulls and bears are as follows:
1. if 4300 can be broken firmly then we are stuck in the original bearish triangle, with threats towards 4100ish and perhaps more down there;
2. if 4450 is breached firmly, then 4300 will be the line in the sand for bulls for the next year or so, where we will be playing in a higher and more bullish diamond.
the answer is not required for another few weeks yet, so we could meander here if we like, in this tightish triangle with a level bottomline along 4300 and a down sloping roofline under 4450.
Game on, for both bears and bulls.
we are on the verge of the paradigm shift, we are so close and yet so far away, all we need is a Trigger to punch through the key upperbank resistance then we rise into a brand new diamond, the land of hope.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletethe triple top on daily chart is a fascinating pattern there
ReplyDeleteWith a triple top, it is either a W, which fails and then gives the bears a goo run; or a W, which rises and extends into new height.
It is all in the fine balance here, could be tipped either way.
You notice the M on bollinger upperband, your bear heart leaps with joy; then you notice the shape of DEMA, it is almost a W there.
Both sides are trigger ready to do a fierce battle here. We need to punch through it in one massive one of, e.g., 100 pointer.
Where would it come from?
had a nap, to be honest, it is hard work, the hardest bit to get started on a chart, I was going to do a new update on Japan, then, it just hit me and I had to lie down and fell into a moo dream for a bit...
ReplyDeletenow hopefully, I am rejuvenated after cup of tea, let it begin...
NBT, I am here.
ReplyDeletenice one on the moo drawing and we will do some more over time, now you keep that one, and let's save this up for now and watch footy, as nobody else seems to have bothered to make a comment, but judging from the big visitor number, I guess there are a few butterflies flying around in the world now, which is good enough for this purpose.
keep drawing.
thanks trigg. Really looking forward it.. and the footy.
ReplyDeleteooo ahh cantona
get the drinks chilled and let's watch the Japanese Volcano, no, joking, let's watch footy, 4:4 and a penalty shootout will do me just fine.
ReplyDeletelaters, probably tomorrow.
to all other moo river watch followers
ReplyDeletethe post on how to draw moo rivers, butterflies, WM's on Nikkei 225 has been withdrawn for now, due to the lack of comments with active participants, but I do notice your interest in terms of the number of visits during these two hours, so we will do that some other time.
for now, let's watch a bit of magic of football, the finale of the European season.
what a match, enjoyed it, not quite as I expected, but it was a thriller, magic.
ReplyDeletethe market is playing for time, as the temporature of the Japanese volcano is rising steadily under the ground, it is rumbling and it is hissing and soon, we will know any lingering bears with ultra greed will be volcanoed in one burst, that will wake up all the bulls in the world, then the silence, then we all cool down for a long while, while the hot lava from Japan sizzles away any lingering fears about the best bear market in the human history...there will be a magic show in the moo rivers around the world...not for the faint hearted...
I believe that gap I mentioned earlier this morning near 4345 has now been filled, we are almost ready to take off, but another spike into 4300 would be just terrific, for me to load up another long there, that would 250 pointer for free from last night, a free ride indeed, how generous.
ReplyDeletea nice night to sleep on...
good night.
I wonder whether Barclays can give 350/360 pence a go, as it seems to have adjusted its rising angle to a more sustainable one now, either a big down or a big up shortly.
ReplyDeleteinteresting times ahead.
I reckon, though I am not a fundamentalist to investment research, at current valuation, Japan as the world's second economy is deeply undervalued while Greater China (China, Hong Kong and Taiwan) as the third largest economy is rather fairly or overvalued. There will be a global funds flow into Japan again, as hot lava into the Japanese volcano, the world is heating up under the ground!
ReplyDeletelet's sleep on the soothing rumbling sound of the Japanese volcano, as bulls, of course.
Must go sleep now, after another few drops of port, it has been a good week so far and a good night tonight.
Was saying this morning that I would close my short at 4345 but have left overnight, would like to ride it to 4320ish but perhaps I am being greedy. May just close in the morning. Desperate to make some money going long..!
ReplyDeleteAfraid Im out again tomorrow..boo. Feel I should look in to setting up limit orders more often, at strong support / resistance levels and see how I get on. V happy with todays 4410 but missed a trick yesterdays 4310.
Afraid the best team won tonight
right couple of beers enoyed so now off for some moo dreams. lol
night all.
nbt]
ps. come on everyone dont be shy, no free fish but believe me it is much better to learn the skills,
of course I could ague that I have been given bucket loads of free fish. I have learnt more in 3 weeks than I had in 3 months.
ReplyDeleteYes I could lose my pot tomorrow, but at least it will be on my own terms...
right over and out
ps feel free to delete my ramblings.lol
well done, again, you are doing very well and I am glad that you are gradually internalising the moo rivers into your trading.
ReplyDeleteif you had followed me on III before I set up store here, you must have noticed a change of my trading style since
good night
good morning
ReplyDeletenot much happened over night, apart from the fact I had a very good night of sleep, after that good footy game, still redrawing the moo rivers has taken up a lot of my energy, so I am very tired to be honest, ask any painters, they will tell you, it is no easy job, just to spread some paint or link up a few lines, it is all brain work.
anyways, I think we are still stuck under 4430 and key resistance 4480, once we get our leg over there, it is a no bearland and the Japanese volcano is still sizzling under the ground, so we wait
remember my comments about bulls having had to hold longs over the weekend to enjoy the summit view, well, that is still very much the case, we can't go too far yet today, otherwise, there is no room for manipulation (as bears like to call it) or manoevour tomorrow.
patience is the key and I look forward to another test near 4300ish which would be perfick, if it happens
for me, it is essential to train up this permabull stance, by buying on dips and dives and having no greed on the shorts side at all, I think I am gradually getting there
some days, it is for the bears to nibble a bit and other days it is the bulls' turn, so you just have to decide which side you want to be on and play your own game and ignore everything else
good luck, bears and bulls.
that was an intuitive or instinctive comment as I just woke up and had a quick glance at prices and charts, now hungry, the brain needs a cuppa and some food
ReplyDeletelater
the market is a great painter, often filling in every nitty gritty gaps
ReplyDeleteyesterday morning, I saw that gap on hourly chart near 4345, it might be a technical glitch, but the market took care to fill that one as well, which was nice.
feeling better now, will go out soon, just had a look at the monthly charter, so far the water in the moo river seems to me to be quite clear
ReplyDeletethis is by far the most juicy period to be a permabull, it is looking very good indeed, but the bear's time will come too,if they are still around by that time
let's hope what I am seeing will pan out this year, if so, moo river watchers and moo river watch followers will have a perfick year this year and more to follow.
I am happy with that.
there is not much for me to do this week now
ReplyDeletemaybe the 250 pointer is the only one I am going to end up with this week, but I am looking forward to a harvesting next week.
some weeks are for sowing the seeds and other weeks are for harvest, this is one for the former, I think.
so plenty of going out, chilling out and shopping
and will spend more time redrawing the moo river. I have redrawn most on ftse now.
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ReplyDeleteno worries, folks, we will do some more drawing lessons once in a while, and I will make sure to get you up to speed if you are a keen learner.
ReplyDeletewent to the dentist, yup, not my favourite sporting event, even gritting your teeth is not allowed!
I have suddenly realised how much I have changed. I used to want to be in the market and scalp every point; and I used to be on the III forum every second and want to have a chitchat all the time...
Now I am more into the moo river watch, I enjoy it to be honest and I am taking that as my main focus, while trading takes a second place, which has turned me into some sort of trendtrader, overnight, magic! I used to think I will never get to be one and I always think Theory is best trendtrader, but it can be done!
I am holding out for 4600ish, I know what you are saying, mad, lol, that is me sorted, a madbull.
I do worry about the folks who are shorting Japan, just look at yearly red candle in 1990 and think what a reversal would be once the Japanese volcano erupts--there is only one universal truth, all good/bad parties come to an end, bear market will finish eventually, so will a bull market. If you want to be a bear, short something else, not the Japanese volcano.
Otherise, I wish bulls and bears both good luck.
I am out shopping.
take care
also, if you want to be a bull, don't long gold, long something else, some markets are suitable for any traders, and some other markets are good for wiping out everyone, so be warned and be careful.
ReplyDeletegetting a bit frustrated, as I am still getting grips with the real-time chart, I have definitely saved the settings, and now it has deleted all my moo rivers on the momentum indicators, someone is not liking it that much.
ReplyDeletenow go back to the basics, learning the manual, it is a pain!
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletedone shopping and now plenty to cook, particularly fish, my favourite for Thursdays, one has to have a good fresh fish for a Thursday.
ReplyDeletenot much happening in the market, yet, bears had a good nibble of 50 pointer, and my friend Market Bear Stubear's Three peaks and Domed House is his usual favourite game and he was absolutely spot on.
We just need to get over this day, as we are playing for time here, and we will wait for bears to get bored with their nibbles or get really greedy, then it might be our turn.
for the time, cooking sounds like a great idea
be happy.
that was a delicious dinner and now through google, learnt why garfish's bones are green, you learn something new everyday
ReplyDeletewhile in the moo rivers, the bears are tearing their furs out in desperation, why struggle at these intermediate levels, when the bears' time will come at a higher level, with a downpour of at least 200 points in one go and then another at least 400 points in one go, it is all in the moo rivers, I stay very calm before the Moocano erupts, hopefully tonight, when all the bears snore away...
in the mooriver linguistics, strikability and bouncibility will come up a lot. strikability is important because within a certain radius, a target can be reached, while outside that radium, the flight of fantasy just goes too far, which is why it is important that markets hold onto certain levels to maintain a certain strikability, like now on ftse100, near 4400, 4600 is strikable within the next few days.
ReplyDeleteinteresting day for Barclays tomorrow, as we have stuffed the lowerbank in the upstream moo river on daily, now the upperbank is near 366 pence a share, it would be a shocker if we do get there, alternatively 240 pence or 200 pence beckons.
ReplyDeleteon the daily rsi, it looks like Market Bear's three peaks and one domed house, we are just short of the Domed House, which would pierce into unreasonable levels.
Bring on the moocanoes and bring on Friday!
good night all.
good morning, all.
ReplyDeleteI was slightly disappointed by the lack of moocano eruptions in Asia, until I realised that I am looking index futures, so there is plenty of time to engineer a move high today, without the real market movement, how cunning!
if you are conservative, then 4500 is the minimum target; if you are like me a bit of a madbull, then 4620ish is achieveable by the end of today; if you are uddermad, you could even hold longs till Tuesday next week.
anyways, we are going to shoot today, I feel quietly confident about that.
out and about today, so good luck.
on ftse100, ma200 has just quietly crossed under ma20 and if it can get under ma100 as well, then it will certainly facilitate the rise there.
ReplyDeleteremember the core range of 4300-4500 and I think we have left an opening gap a few days back near 4500.
it is possible that we rise up to 4500ish, then drop back down to 4420ish, then ...
all the best.
if we fail to overcome 4500 today, it is actually quite bearish, otherwise, let's work the bullish count
ReplyDeletehourly chart:
we have had the ABC corrective waves:
Wave A: link up peak of 14:00 on 7th May and 9am on 14 May;
Wave B: from 9am on 14 May to 8am on 20th May;
Wave C: from 8am on 20th May to 11am on 26th May.
ABC waves are correctively, in a bull run, it is market taking a breather.
now we are in 5 impulsive waves up
Wave 1: link 11am on 26th May to 6am on 27 May;
Wave 2: link 6am on 27 May to 15:00 on 28th May;
Wave 3: we are in the process of this wave...
Good luck.
Just a couple of trades this week, have not had 5 mins spare so staying on the sides. I have next thurs penciled in for some bearish fireworks, but until then just some gap play and a bit of scalping. Looking for the tier 1's preferably.
ReplyDeleteGood luck today Trigg. I have a lot of catching up to do tonight, but hopefully the picture will be a lot clearer after today.
KR
if you read Nationwide's house price report, it is saying everything about the first leg of the bull market, where most of the so-called experts and analysts would want to side with the doom and gloom cautious view, so that they stand a better chance of being right, than in the wrong. you can see their rationality between the lines, caution, conservatively or scared bullishness, so that just shows there is plenty of bull leg left in this rally yet, in fact, we probably have not started the real bull leg yet.
ReplyDeleteanyways, we trade what we see, not what we want to see (Grimoology on III). Let's do that.
good luck.
no worries, the ability or relaxed mindset to say no to trading is a perfect prelude to a good trader
ReplyDeletehave a great day.
no shorting until Tuesday midnight is what I would say.
ReplyDeletewell, I did say to enjoy the view from the summit, you have to hold longs over the weekend, I am holding onto them, see how it goes.
ReplyDeletegood night, it has been a very long day.
plenty of sun around to help us recharge.
ReplyDeleteHave enjoyed reading Theorys blog this evening, The force is growing..lol
nice one, will go over there on Sunday to have a read as well.
ReplyDeletehave a nice weekend.