FTSE100
(based on 30 year advanced data charts)
FTSE is different from Dow in that its yearly rsi is hanging midstream in the downstream moo river there, so in a sense, this one is either vulnerable to another sudden and dramatic drop or it has more bullish intent than Dow and will lead the West out of the recession.
Similar to SPX500, it has found yesteryears' support as key resistance now, as it struggled to get past the bollinger midline at 4568 this year.
Momentum indicators are bearish, so any rallies are bear market rallies.
Wilder's smooth MA line now lies near 4000 as support.
Quarterly
If you compare this year to the last bear market bottom in 2002/2003, what is lacking here on quarterlies are some W's, in particular, we could do with a W on rsi.
Otherwises, we are still very bearish.
Monthly
This is where bulls have finally come out to play. We have correlated W's here, indicating a bounce or a bull run for many a month.
Price chart: we need to break 4680 to confirm the W there.
Rsi: it is supportive of a run at least to challenge 4680, with a breaching of the first resistance line in the form of upperbank 1 and now we are headed for upperbank 2. With such a nicely shaped W there against the lowerbank under 30, there is every hope that price rise might accelerate as we are enjoying a third green monthly candle in a row.
All other momentum indicators are supportive and there is room everywhere for more upside.
Weekly
I have drawn that giant butterfly which gives me an insight into possibilities for years to come, but I will try to avoid to rely on it for now, as we all know what happens when one thinks one can see the future--Martin Armstrong is still in jail. But once I had drawn the butterfly, it does look so similar to his economic confidence model, at least in some ways. I will compare notes with his cycles over time. For now, I will rely on the moo rivers and the more moderate diamond for guidance.
Price chart: we are in an upstream moo river and in a final square of a giant diamond from January 2009. If anything, this is the week for a top near 4600, which is the top of the final square. A delay this week will further strengthen the upstream moo river. At +45 degrees, this is a beautifully shaped upstream moo river. This final square has a top near 4600 and a bottom near 4070, though because we are in an upstream moo river, vertical dropping to 4070 does not happen as a rule, so the maximum downside should be contained above 4180.
If we had poked anywhere near 4600 last week, this bull run could have ended abruptly, as it would have formed a bearish reversal at the top and more falls would have followed. Because we made an inside bar last week, it is likely that we would form a bullish flag here, before a final rise towards 4820ish, where more consolidation will follow.
RSI: we seem to have met resistance of upperbank 1 in the upstream moo river, but at 51.7, it is not really overbought.
Other momentum indicators are still supportive, though repulse seems to be struggling with similar problems as RSI.
Daily
Though we are a much wider upstream moo river, price has managed to stay above the bollinger midline for support, which is also the moo river midline. This is a bullish signal. A break of 4410 this time will take price up to 4550 at least this week. A break below 4290 will widen the price movement and enhances the belief in bears.
RSI: it has come down from an overbought position of 74 to test out the lowerbanks in the upstream moo river and it currently has the potential to shape up a W against lowerbank 1, which will support a more bullish move on price this week.
MACD: it starts to look a bit bearish with a bearish crossing and increasing bearish momentum, though it is hitting a former upperbank, now resistance turned support.
All the other indicators are bearish intended.
4hourly
There is a good case of bullish divergence here, where bulls picked up longs near 4300on strengthening momentum, though there are no upstream moo rivers in sight yet.
Hourly
The key question on hourly is whether the correlated downstream moo river for last week has finished its course yet. On rsi, it seems to say so, but other momentum indicators are yet to be convinced.
A good opening to the week will be critical. A strong Asia will enable ftse100 to turn into a Wave 3 rise in the early week, which might bring forth a key challenge of 4600 as the week's top target.
There is hope for both sides at this very moment, until we wake up in the morning. I have made up my mind based on the bigger picture, which might not turn out to be a winning trading strategy on the short term time frames. But one has to trade on one's own decisions and be prepared for the consequences.
Good luck.
Ps I will be updating the comments section throughout the week. Feel free to join me here.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Excellent work Mr Trigger, you must be totally pooped by now!.
ReplyDeleteI will be re-reading this a few times tonight. Especially like the hourly and 4 hourly review.
Hope you enjoy a well deserved glass of wine this evening.
regards
nbt
ps. which days are you on this week?
hi, mate
ReplyDeleteI will be on Wednesdays and Thursdays, last week was a one-off.
I think I need more than one glass of wine now.
Still, it has been a fantastic challenge and I am glad that it is attracting some visitors today.
Monday's daily range could be between 4250 and 4400, though without seeing how Asia does, this is a huge guesswork.
ReplyDeletegood luck and good night.
A South African court threw out on Sunday a bid by powerful union group COSATU to block Monday's planned listing of mobile phone company Vodacom, one of the country's largest stock exchange debuts.
ReplyDeletepigs might fly and this is a heavily weighted pig!
Asia looks not too bad overnight. I am buying or holding for 4600, minimum this week, as long as we stay above 4180.
ReplyDeleteChinese iron ore stock falls, which is a good sign that the economy is needing more materials, hence a sign a recovery.
watch out for daily rsi, if 50 holds, bears will be in great trouble; if 50 falters, then we might even see as low as 4080.
ReplyDeletelet me expand on that. Daily rsi:
Draw the old downstream moo rivers
Link up low on 20th Jan and 3rd Mar and parallel and link up top of 6 feb to form upperbank 1 and top of 2nd Apr to form upperbank 2.
now draw the new upstream moo river
link up tops on 23 Mar and 6th May to form upperbank 1, then parallel to link up tops of 6th feb to form upperbank 2 and bottom of 20th apr to form lowerbank 1 and bottom of 5th mar to form lowerbank 2.
I think these two crisscrossing moo rivers should contain all the actions from here onwards. Remember older support turned into resistance and vice versa, have a bit of play there, you will be fine. The erosion of rsi at little reduction or increment of price is the trick the MMs use to smooth out markets.
I am buying on dips and dives until we see 4600 minimum, if not 4800.
good luck.
good morning, all moo river watch followers.
ReplyDeletelast week, we worked on correlated findings across price and momentum indicators; this week, let's work on correlated findings across different indices, for now, between dow and ftse.
1. draw the downstream moo river on hourly dow price chart, link up tops 19pm on 8th May and 15pm on 15th May and parallel to link up bottom of 18pm on 13th May.
2. watch that moo river while watching the ftse moo rivers on hourly, as detailed last week, where you should have the downstream moo river and upstream moo river.
See how it helps you with trading today.
good luck.
to throw the spanner into works, look across one share for correlated findings as well
ReplyDeletebarc: £3.80; £3.20; £3;//// 235pence, 200 pence, 150 pence.
That is me done for the day.
good luck.
by the way, don't forget to be kind and keep the Moo River Watch HQ free for all for years to come.
ReplyDeletethank you all for your visits and your comments and kindness will be appreciated greatly.
See you tonight.
How refreshing to see an intelligent and detailed summary of the indexes.
ReplyDeleteI have just one ongoing question about 'butterflies'. Maybe I'm looking too deeply. Is this simply a visual metaphor for how you visualise the SPX developing on the monthly?
Johnga,
ReplyDeletethanks, on weekly mainly, for spx, japan and ftse100, a few of them to be honest.
will be leaking out details gradually as more confirmation coming in
don't want to see to far into the future, as we are all daytraders.
take care
ftse100 closed at 4348, so there is an opening up gap to be filled, see how it goes.
ReplyDeletenote there are a few gaps down there to be filled on the banks, will be interesting to see which gaps get filled first.
ReplyDeleteI am thinking of buying some Vodafone shares, but ventures there have never yielded too much excitement for me.
decided to dedicate all cash funds to Barc shares, so sitting on them
ReplyDeleteit looks alright, I retain my daily forecast for 4250 and 4400.
watch them moo rivers
W for up and M for down signals
you will be fine.
good luck.
When you say 'we are all daytraders' who do you mean?
ReplyDeleteI, for one, prefer to take and trade a longer view.
finally yielded to greed and bought some hsbc this morning 539 pence, it carries a quarterly dividend of 8 pence, anyways, greed is the word!
ReplyDeletepatience is a virtue, not many of us have it in this game, that is why it is a virtue and a rare quality too.
good luck, must go now.
nice, Johnga, I am learning to be a swing trader or trendtrader too.
ReplyDeleteshow me the way and I will learn from you, my friend.
laters
Ps I meant most are daytraders, to be more precise.
if we stay above 4300, I would target 4800 tops, though 4550/4600 is almost a guaranteed target once we get over 4410;
ReplyDeleteif we cave back down a bit further, then 4550/4600 becomes max and might make do with another small weekly candle for this week and a good rise next week.
it is all in the works, I must dash. it looks alright to me.
the good ole gap came through. Have taken half and the rest is a free runner.
ReplyDeleteOver the LB of US moo, next stop 4370 resistance.
Guessing big test will be 4400.
good luck, also out and about this morning.
I have always thought of the term 'my friend' and 'bro' as something of a precursor to being eliminated! Should stop watching so many Bond films!
ReplyDeleteIm bet the mad bull didnt close at 4420.....lol
ReplyDeletewell so much for the free runner. Was even thinking to myself this morning how nice it would be swim all the way up this one. Still at least I didnt set the limit sell at 4420.
Looking back, I shouldn't have closed before the res had been tested. Also it was quite clear the the dow had no intention of staying put.
Have certainly seen the moo rivers at their best today.
ps, am actually over the moon. My 2nd best day so far (last weds being the no1).
ReplyDeletewell done, NBT, you have made the right decisions and the moos supported your decisions.
ReplyDeletethings will get even better for you.
out at 4470, made just over 300 points to start the week, not bad, will still buy on dips and dives
ReplyDeleteopening gap towards 4446
ReplyDeletedaily range for Tuesday 4380-4450
ReplyDelete4550 might be interesting for bears.
ReplyDeleteit was a bit too early, daily range could be 4550 and 4400
ReplyDeletewatch hourly dow
ReplyDeletedraw an upstream moo river on rsi, which contains two upperbanks and one lowerbank.
a rise to 83 will be sold by many a bear; a drop to 47 will be bought by many a bull, I think this will contain today's range movement on dow.
the upstream is at a rising angle of +10 degrees.
sold one ftse 4478, for the opening gap fun, placed another short near 4550 for 100 pointer.
ReplyDeletewatch the upstream moo river on hourly rsi, we hit 78 yesterday, so another rise to 82.6 will be sold by many a bear and drops to 51 and 35 will be bought by many a bull.
good luck.
ftse 15m, if it hits 89 at the opening, it will be sold by many a bear.
ReplyDeletebulls will buying on dips and dives above 4300 and 4400, under this support zone, bulls will have doubts in their minds and bears will be aggressive.
ReplyDeleteso it is really a strange market, where you have to buy high and sell low, if you know what I mean.
Interesting day today, as this is Tuesday with Vodafone reporting, etc and dividend tonight, it won't be one way street today. The main action might be between 4400 and 4500, though 4550 is my weekly top target 1.
I am still training myself in terms of this buying on dips and dives only strategy, it is not easy, as we head into realms of a lot of hope and optimism.
ReplyDeletewatch Vodafone closely, as this one is stuck in a tight triangle between 132 and 120, a break of either will be significant and vodafone is a heavy weight in the FTSE100.
ReplyDeletethe moo rivers are not giving out definitely answers here, so can only trade on breakouts.
not happy with this morning's trades, cashed in longs too early and sold too early, trading is becoming more difficult here.
ReplyDeletemarket might top for the morning, somewhere between 4500/4530 and 4550.
ReplyDeleteno wonder George the Gapstar always waited for 8am gaptrade, some residue momentum could be quite useful.
ReplyDeletestill learning about the gaptrade here.
will also test the gap. here it goes....
ReplyDeleteout of shorts and now gone long, phew, never try that gaptrading again without a bit of moo magic
ReplyDeletea mixed bag of results this morning, could have made another 100 pointer in terms of longs, which were cashed in too early and nicked some bear points, which is nice, but hey, I am always a jittery bear, at the best of times, and this is not yet one of them.
ReplyDeleteagreed, that happened way too fast. Think I will sit out and monitor for now.
ReplyDeletewould I be right to link in another bank on this US through the high on 14th 5pm and 15th at 10am ?
taken the over 800 pounds profit on Barclays, I am a bit nagged by the daily rsi, which seems to need another touch on the main lowerbank. anyways, a profit is a profit once taken.
ReplyDeleteso made some money this week, now can sit back and relax a bit, though Mrs T is furious about the Adsense being suspended by google, a victim of this site's success, as they think I have attracted too much traffic and too many clicks, but hey, if people appreciate my work, why not! Anyways, trading is the main thing, blogging is for sharing anyways.
good luck.
though I won't recommend to be on the bear side yet, but if you have to be a bear, then 4550ish or 4700ish are two interesting pivotal points for me. Look out for M's and upperbank rejections around those levels.
ReplyDeletePS Barclays, last time I jumped out with a measley profit, it shot up! well, it happens, I am still learning to become a consistently good trader.
nice W on daily rsi for hsbc, but standard chartered is the most bouncey one in those two banks
ReplyDeletestrangely, under 4400, it might be more of a bearland, than above it, but how many bears will be selling under 4400 and how many bulls will be buying above 4400, the human psychology is one for selling high and buying cheap.
ReplyDeletedow is stuck in a massive triangle between 8500 and 8330, with 8410ish as midline.
ReplyDeletemight be an up and down day today, before the market makes up its mind
watch out for the rsi levels posted earlier, these could be the key today
ReplyDeleteI am sure what you are referring to with those two points.
the trick now, as we have broken the downstream moo river, is to find a second dip to link up and form a lowerbank for an upstream moo river on dow
that triangle, the upperbank comes from an old lowerbank from way back and the lowerbank is the former upperbank of the downstream moo river on hourly, which was was breached yesterday.
resistance turned support and vice versa, the moo river never stays still.
good luck, must go
hi Trigger,
ReplyDeleteit was on ftse hourly upstream. I P linked the two highs on price (14th 5pm and 15th 10am and so far we have bounced off of it 3 times today.
Would this now be lowerbank 1?
Thinking that a break of this new channel would lead to a test of either LB2 or UB2.
Barclays shot up again, it just shows I am still not getting it right in terms of shares, still very much a scalper, than a trendrider.
ReplyDeleteMy only exsposure to shares is through a sharebuilder. I no longer have the willingness/nerve to invest 5000 and forget about it for a year, 6months, 2days even.
ReplyDeleteIm considering basing the amount I invest in each sharebuilder stock on its position in the longer time framed moo rivers.
Its surely going to be buy on dips and dives for a few more years yet.
ps. sold my barclays at £2.30! grrrr
no worries, it won't be a one-way street. Either Barclays or Standard Chartered, they are really the momentum shares in banks, I think I am wrong to stay on with HSBC, it is just not that bouncey.
ReplyDeleteThe reason that I don't like fundamental approach to investment is that there are so many manipulated news out there and I read this morning's Lehman's new on Barc and got jittery and got out of the shares on the cheap, without respecting the moo river. That is why I like technical analysis or the moo river watch, just look at the charts and use news announcement for timing rather than relying on their contents, e.g., good news can bring down a market while bad news can shoot up a market, it is all in the river!
good night, I am very tired now.