Week 18 (3rd May-9th May): Asian Moo River Watch

Hong Kong (Hangseng 42)

Yearly

We are still in a bearish mode with a red para sar dot, though the yearly candle is green, but it is a long year.

Quarterly

Still very bearish here as well with a continuous flow of red para sar dot, though the candle is green for now, a quarter is a long quarter in the market as well.

If you really want to, you can draw a downstream moo river there, and we are challenging the upperbank there at the moment. A break higher will be significant, as is a rejection there.

Monthly

We have definitely broken the downstream moo river there with the green April candle poking itself outside the river and now we start outside the old moo river, but somehow we have fallen out of the upstream moo river there, so we still need to see where the lowerbank is to determined the depth of this upstream moo river, but the para sar dots are still red in a series of red dots.

The bollinger midline is near 20290, which should provide a ceiling of some sort for this kind bull run, if we do go that far.

Weekly

This is where bulls have been camping for the past 5 weeks on 5 green para sar dots. We did break the downstream moo river here, now we are asking whether this is an ABC corrective move or a 5 wave impulsive move.

If you link the candle tail bottoms of W44 of 2008 and W47 of 2008 and you will see cearly that we are stuck under the former weekly superhammer lifeline. That itself is bearish, previous support turning into a key resistance, or a ceiling. If you parallel this former lifeline, then you will have an upstream moo river at a very minor positive angle.

It is possible that we will last week's range a repetition this week, between 14400 and 15600, which still gives you a range of 1200 to play with.

Momentum indicators are saying if it is a falling week, it is a good thing provide it does not break the lowerbanks of the upstream moo rivers on various indicators. While a rising week will probably bring bears out in good number to sell hard.

For now, we are meandering across the river from the upperbank to the lowerbank in a level sort of crossing and this river has the width to cross until June.

Daily

We are struggling a bit with a row of red para sar dots crushing down as the ceiling to stop the current bull run.

Momentum indicators have turned down. Potentially, we could turn down a bit first when Hong Kong opens tomorrow night and then rally back.


=========
Overall, Hong Kong is the prime example of what will follow after the end of the bear market. At the moment, it is showing us a flat bullbear battle zone uner 16000. If we break 16000,then we might go for the 20700 magic number, which should provide a ceiling. For now, we meander, dither and think about where to go from here.

====================================================================================

Japan (Nikkei 225)

30 year data chart

Yearly

Japan is stuck in a very tight triangle on yearly price chart, either this year or next year, there has got to be a decisive move out of this triangle, because we have meandered in this flat bullbear zone between 19000 and 8200 roughly for 17 long years. Japan is the scary foresight into the future of this bear market in the West, meaning we could be stuck in a flat zone for decades as well. But I have always said that is far too pessimistic a view, because the Japanese depression is self-inflicted and they are a unique race of people who are capable of extremes, extreme excellence in things like quality and work and extremes manics like never ending depressions. I certainly think we will follow Hong Kong out of this slump more quickly than following the Japanese example.

Quarterly

It seems to be pointless once we have looked at the yearly to look across shorter time horizons as we are still meandering within that range between 19000 and 8200, which is a huge range to meander, though this year the key resistance is 16000 or even 13200, a breach of which will be significant.

There is plenty of room to manoevour yet in the downstream moo river on rsi.

Monthly

Let's be brief about it, we have W'ed up from the lowerbank in the downstream moo river on RSI and now there is still some room for the upside yet, having crossed the midline.

Price'wise, a challenge of 10000, key psychological barrier, looks imminent, or even unavoidable.

Weekly

Rsi is almost hitting the upperbank, so either further hesitation or acceleration, which will surprise some in the world. Japan showed surprising strength in the absence of Hong Kong last Friday and now the momentum seems to be gathering pace.

Daily

This is where the surprise took place on Friday, and there are some pretty oddly looking correlated W's there, hanging in the midair, meaning the 10000 challenge to be missed before it finally sulks into depression again. I can certainly see a quick challenge of 10000 this week and then tank big. Does this give further clues to the outlook of the rest of the world?

Good luck, bulls and bears, I don't trade Asia, if I did, my motto there would be no shorts until Japan hits 10000.

(to be continued tomorrow)