FTSE 100
(based on 30 year advanced charts)
Yearly
The yearly rsi came down from an all time high of 91 in 1999 to 55.4 which seems to be suggesting that we are only half way through a ginormous bear market and it is currently stuck in the middle of a downstream moo river. All very bearish here, apart from the candle, which is a doji for now, but it is a long year. We are hugging the bollinger midline here.
Quarterly
The rsi has completed one full crossing from 70 to 30, so the bullishness of the old uptrend has gone and it is doubtful whether we can reach 70 again this time round. Like Japan, we are very much stuck in the downstream moo river or the great bear market and the momentum indicators are trying to bounce up.
Quarterly top target prices could be 4650 and 4830 and we seem to have seen this quarter's low already.
Monthly
I can argue that we have correlated W's on price and momentum indicators such as RSI, whose W is very well formed. This is the third green monthly candle and I think I commented on the old moo river HQ, a three green monthly candles in a row could end the bear market.
There is still quite a bit upside in the rsi downstream moo river yet.
Weekly
We are hitting tops or upperbanks here, on rsi, macd and repulse, so there is a good chance fore a pullback, while the rsi is almost 56. Watch out to see whether rsi can reach 70, which will be significant.
Price, it has sort of destroyed my diamond on the innerside, still it might just be a minor breach. A break of 4530 will completely destroy the inner wall of the diamond. The next diamond wall will be near 4730.
Daily
No bearish divergence yet, though rsi has the potential to shape up a M against 70's high value. If the market finds a good excuse, we should have early weakness to start the week.
We are in this last little square for my diamond in the upstream moo rivers. So roughly, this little square is circumscribed between 4100 and 4600, hence I am forecasting a weekly range between 4300 and 4600, with early weakness and later strength.
good luck.
Monthly
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monday's range: a spike into 4520 over night and tank back down to 4420.
ReplyDeleteI am going to start a new experiment, yes, yet another experiment. I am going to do weekly trading, meaning trading based on the weekly range.
ReplyDeleteI will keep you updated about the results. Hopefully, it will help me to regain the thousand pointer a week again.
based on the forecasted weekly range of 4300 and 4600
ReplyDeleteMonday: we are near 4500 there, I won't be buying for 4600, though I have laid more shorts towards 4600. Within this range, once we get into 4300's, I will hold longs for a bit more profit.
You may ask me, what if this range is broken, then I will reassess and work out another weekly range to play.
see how it goes, remember, it is an experiment.
honkers very strong overnight, though it might just be one quick spike into 17900 scenario, but can't ignore that one. so just bought 4488 for 4600 and withdrew some limit shorts orders, leave short orders close to 4600, still playing the range, limit buy order 4420 placed and downwards. See how it goes. We might see 4600 first before we come back down.
ReplyDelete4462 was the close level, so there is an opening gap there, see how it goes.
ReplyDeletethat long 4488, aiming for 4570ish and amended shorts limit orders to 4570ish and 4620, that would be me done for the top, if it shoots over the range, then we will have to reassess.
ReplyDeletehopefully, it comes down first to 4420.
while 4600/4620 is the ultimate top for the weekly range, my longs are aiming near 4570ish to be on the safe side.
ReplyDeleteresistances (for cashing in longs and placing shorts): 4570; 4600; 4640; 4720 ultimate;
ReplyDeletesupports: 4420; 4370 and 4310 and 4280, ultimate.
4530, the previous high could hold, which is also the diamond wall resistance.
ReplyDeletebut I am hesitating to place a short there. I think 4570 is a better place for it.
ReplyDeletechanged my mind, placed short limit order 4520 and will cash in the long any time now, if there is a profit, limit order to sell all the way up to 4630 and limit orders to buy all the way from 4420. I will end up like my friend John on III.
ReplyDeletestill hopeful for a little spike into 4530/20 and then tank down, or just tank down, I am positioned on the short side, so if it goes down, it is better, so I can try to get rid of the shorts at breakeven, and then look to reposition.
ReplyDelete15m and 1h rsi are both stuck half way, so it could be either way at the open, a spike would be nice.
ReplyDeleteseems to be a wrong decision to place that long, but never mind, let me get out of my shorts first, where I have shorts from 4470 all the way down to 4330.
ReplyDelete4420 will be formidable, after that, we are headed towards 4300ish.
ReplyDeleteOn the hourly, we can draw a tentative downstream moo river, if you link Friday's high and the overnight hight and parallel to link up the low on Thursday night. This downstream moo river will give a day range of 4493 and 4300ish.
would come handy for me to get rid of my shorts.
looks like we are headed down, which would be nice. First target this week, to get rid of my shorts and then regroup.
ReplyDeleteI think I am seeing some sense why John holds longs and shorts at the same time, well, you can always look at the ones in green to cheer you up any time.
ReplyDeletebought another long 4428, just in case it does not tank down any further, sitting on the shorts tightly, as they have combined together to get out in one go.
ReplyDeleteas long as I get out of all the shorts this week, I will be happy, that is my target no.1.
ReplyDeletelooks like an ABC wave down for today and tomorrow and then rise up Tuesday night and all the way up to reach weekly high.
next week, 18th May could be a black Monday.
trigg, how low do you reckon we'll get over the next couple of days?
ReplyDeleteI've got some jun shorts around 4150 that i'm defending.
thinking close with loss and get in higher or just let them run and wait for the correction.
obviously my call but any advise would be greatly appreciated.
Cheers
Blake
Hi, Blake,
ReplyDeletewhen you get things wrong, there are three options:
1. keep them until they come back;
2. stick to your guns in the same direction;
3. average them out to reduce your floating losses.
I am taking the third option, I am using high level shorts to get out the lower level shorts, once done, I will reassess.
good luck.
hi, moo river watch followers,
ReplyDeleteHave another good read of this weekend weekly watch, they are proving valuable and almost accurate so far.
I think we have entered a gold period of trading until early June where we can buy and sell at leisure and make loads of money.
Let's call this the Diamond trading zone.
Here is my plan:
diamond top 4600ish
diamond bottom 4070ish
Everyday, I will set limit orders
1. to sell near the diamond wall, today's 4520ish
2. to buy at lower levels;
3. place a stop buy above the diamond wall just in case we go for 4700ish external top.
good luck.
have a read of Twiggs trading diary
ReplyDeletehttp://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2009-05-11_markets.php#ftse
quite interesting one, it is all in the T family of trading systems and watches (Trigger, TG, Theory, Twiggs, etc), it is certainly a growing family tree.
one more dip lower, I will be freed of my shorts, though I might have missed a good fall in the diamond, it is a price to be paid for making mistakes and loads of mistakes as well, on one mad day.
ReplyDeleteif I don't have that bagful of wrong shorts, I would be shorting it towards 4300 minimum; but with those wrong shorts, I will just be happy to get out fresh.
ReplyDeleteTrading rules:
1. when you get it right, run it and make as much money as possible, focusing on making money;
2. when you get it wrong, get out of them at the minimum cost asap, focus on correting mistakes;
it is a funny money, but it will come further today, after initial strength.
4430 and 4330 might be the range.
late night last night, can't spell, can't write, 3:1 is a good lifeline.
ReplyDeletealso a late one. Must stop reading till late as unable to wake for 7am!
ReplyDeleteliked the twig link. Esp as fits in with my plans. (4550 ish tomorrow, before a heavy weds brings us down.)
Got out of shorts yesterday morn and just a small long running (4430) However would not be surprised to see jan double top 4680. Or perhaps stop at 4585 (38% retrace from may08-mar09)
Looking forward to tomorrow as I will be at the screen all day..
regards
nbt
scratch that. no positions!. Some reorganising tonight for tomorrow we shall rule the market.. lol.
ReplyDeletelet me know if there is anything you want me to look at tonight. Been a while since ive had any homework..
just come back, this market is pretending to be resilient. but really it could do with a healthy pullback, the M on dow daily rsi against an upperbank will exert itself tomorrow, I think. We could do with a drop to 40's on dow daily rsi and pricewise, we might drop back to 8000. Remember last week, I commented on a rise to 8700 and then a drop back to 8000, it might still happen without seeing 8700.
ReplyDeletediscovered the fib retracements button on IG this weekend. Interesting looking at may high to mar low. first Hit the 38% retrace in nov, tried again in jan, and now 140pts away from a 3rd attempt (4586). 3rd time lucky perhaps. Some not so bad figures tomorrow imo would warrant some more upside. For certain no bad news of late has had any effect on this bull run.
ReplyDeletealthough nothing out of the question for me right now.
wow, look at VIX, collapsing big. something is bound to give.
ReplyDeleteI will sleep on that now, quite tired after a long day, key task for me is get rid of the shorts, then I will have a rethink, but so far I have been proven right in saying, buying and selling can both make good money, one direction will be the dominant play, I think it might be the downside for now.
ReplyDeletegood morning, moo river watchers.
ReplyDeleteslowly and steadily, something is being brewed. while ultimately, the market is fascinated by the 4600ish top on ftse, the momentums are weakening already. I will be selling towards 4600, laid out two limit sell orders at 4520 and 4570.
realistically, we are still playing this tight range of 4520 and 4400, the latter is proving resilient.
had a look at Japan, that one is waning a bit as well, but has not yet challenged the key 10000 yet.
Had a look at cable, this one is bullish, could potentially challenge $1.56/$1.57 this week, but equally, it looks a little toppish as well, coming back down to $1.5050 and $1.51 won't be a bad idea either.
while the diamond is still there, we are stuck in the triangular apex top of the diamond above 4400 with a top of 4600ish. it is a funny market, hiding its hands behind its back, so no wonder both buys and sellers have been making money for the past two days, today could be a little bit more vibrant.
ReplyDeleteso roughly 4350 and 4450 again today and make your own choice as for which way you would like to make money, due to your current leverage and which side you are more comfortable with.
ReplyDeletethis is the 11th week from the March bottom and while it seems likely that it will make a higher high to complete the bull run so far near 4570ish, the momentum should be downwards, which should last a few weeks from here. In topping, you either waiting for it to hit an untouchable top like 4570ish or a breakdown of certain key support, currently in 4400-4350. let's watch out for some extreme figures on hourly rsi and the WMs.
ReplyDelete7:42am, hourly on ftse100, we are the piggy in the middle here at the moment. yesterday we closed at 4425, so a 20 pointer opening gap trade here for some gaptraders, if they are brave, after recently seeing gaps unfilled in this bull run.
ReplyDeleteboth ways would be good.lol
ReplyDeletefalling M on hourly trying to break dwn thro 50.?
have you drawn the downstream moo river on hourly rsi, link up top on 19pm of 4th May and 20pm on 6th May and parallel against the lows, it is a rough downstream moo river, but maybe come handy today.
ReplyDeletedone. also have the highs from 7th and 8th may drawn in. right in middle of a tight wedge with top at 4485
ReplyDeletenice gap trade for gaptraders, now para sar dots on 15m and 1h are all red and the little slanting M on hourly rsi really did the trick
ReplyDeleteshort from open. kicking myself a little. Should have done a theory and opened 2 positions, would most likely have closed one now and left other at b/e. is this something you do?
ReplyDeleteall very M'ish on hourly
ReplyDeleteinflation report will be out, so it is the fear factor
ReplyDeletealways look out for a slightly slanting M when topping, it is a very useful signal
ReplyDeletenot really, my friend, my trading is a bit undisciplined, well, at least you have made money to start the day off, nice one.
ReplyDeleteload up hourly, my friend, on adavanced chart, how many M's can you see across price and momentum indicators
ReplyDeletestill we are getting closer to the lowerbank of that downstream moo river.
remember the daily range so far should be 4450 and 4350, the path towards 4350 will be a slithering one, once we have completed the daily range, I will reassess. it is very important for me for the market to reach the lower level, so I am a bit emotionally biased.
ReplyDeleteI am trading on 1m para dots there, as I hold all my shorts in one bunch, so I am only buying for a bit of fun and covering. should get there
ReplyDeleteI reckon we will hit hourly lowerbank and then meandering along the lowerbank with not much moment, though price should continue to drift towards 4350, that is what I see at the moment.
ReplyDeleteyou prob wont believe this but have not used adv chart before. lesson learnt.
ReplyDeletesince mon drop i count six on price. may need to have a play and get to grip with the settings.
also, ive only been using price and rsi. anythnig else i can add to my arsenal?
drawn a tentative downstream moo river on 1m, see whether it holds the upside 4425, might not work, but trying to find a path for this market.
ReplyDeleteinflation report today and more data at 9:30, waves to come
on 1m ftse price chart, still trying to figure the moo river there, but it has been hard to pin down
ReplyDeleteis someone trying to make a comment, but it is not appearing, let me know on iii
ReplyDeletelooks like a flag to me on ftse hourly, so a continuation pattern, more falls to come?
ReplyDeletew emerging on 15m, a bit of a bounce is attempted here
ReplyDeletebut it should be stopped by ma200 there on 15m, near 4430, let's see
ReplyDeleteit seems today's target might be 4250
ReplyDeleteI am seeing a pattern on hourly, an odd shape, or a wedge,or a triangel, its height is between 4530 and 4380, so it is 150 pointer in height.
when we do break 4400 or 4380, the bottom of this drop should be 4250 or 4230 today!
I am interested
I am hoping it might go like this
ReplyDelete1. a drop onto 4350/4370;
2. a bounce up towards 4400;
3. another drop and eventually reach 4250/4230 there
is that too bearish, but really a regurgitation from 4530 to 4200 should fit the fib numbers near 4180ish, so it is possible
need to run it somehow
10.30 approaching. good time to break the 4400
ReplyDeletefailed again, another bounce perhaps.
ReplyDeletebought now to cover, if you are a bull, look at 15m, if you are a bear, look at hourly, it is just a scalping market so far
well, play 4450 and 4400 for now and whichever way it breaks, should trend, though I do think it is bearish overall, but if the market wants to delay the falls, you have to go with the market and don't want to lose any more hair
ReplyDeleteso first 100 pointer profit for the week, hopefully it is a yound week, still suffering from the paperloss down there though
the iii site is way too slow, that one has not been renovated since 2000, still, it is a popular site.
ReplyDeletehad a little short before/after Mr King. Had me on tenterhooks, all his maybes were frustrating to say the least.
ReplyDeleteWill leave this morns short to run, though tempted to cover long with tight stop.
hmm
going to mull it over whilst putting a planting plan together. Going to start with some grasses me thinks.
going by my moo on 1min (top 9.51 and 11.11) we should be test 4375. which ties in with the low at 8pm on the 7th.
ReplyDeletePoss reassess at 1.30. Retail sales.
touching hourly lowerbank, see what happens, 4380 key!
ReplyDeletebut hourly momentum indicators are bearish, para sar is red, what more do bears need?
lol. the last word verification was TROLOX... trying to tell me something perhaps..
ReplyDeleteI was doing the shed just now, drilling holes of course, and finally 4400 cracked!
ReplyDeletegosh. just gave the runner beans a good talking to, im sure they nodded when I told them of the spot I have ready for them in june.
ReplyDelete4380 broken
are you riding this? 4310ish, initial target, maybe this one will have legs. watching closely for the yankies to jump on or jump off.
ReplyDeletedownstream moo river on hourly chart
link up tops 15pm on 7th May and this morning's top, to form upperbank and parallel and link 11th May low to form lowerbank 1 and low on 7th May to form lowerbank 2.
see how this one goes
next news 13:30pm
ReplyDeleteI still want to get rid of my shorts first and then reassess, not an ideal scenario for trading, but a mistake is a mistake.
let's look ahead, the overall target might be 4250ish, but it won't happen in one go
ReplyDelete1. 4300ish stops the rot for this one;
2. bouncing up to just under 4400
3. dropping again
it is a slithering down towards 4250, if however, we break 4300 in one big drop, this could be flooding in the moo river, remember the overall range in the diamond is between 4610 and 4080, but a drop to 4080 would be a shock, not in an upstream moo river
just riding the short from this am.
ReplyDeleteThank you..looking for the hourly to close below lowerbank 1, then poss cover near lower 2.
watching 15min closely for confirmation to cover.
This is all new territory for me. You've given my trading a new lease of life.lol
now that we are coming down, everyone would want to know how far we would go, I have drawn all the downstream moo rivers on hourly ftse now, across price, momentum indicators, so will give you a shout when they hit banks
ReplyDeletehold fire and hold on for the ride, it is gritty stuff, but every drop is money in the pocket, though the opposite is always a risk we take
ReplyDeletewatching 5 momentum moo rivers and one moo river on price, lol, a proper river watcher today
ReplyDeletejudging from the downstream moo river on hourly rsi, we might have accelerated in terms of the fall, it is the angle of the moo river that has changed from -5 to a more healthy -25 degrees, still very patient move, take money as and when and do it like Theory, take half and have a free rider.
ReplyDeletetrading is always an individual game, one has to make timely decisions
ReplyDeletelet's have a good day here
we won't fall too much though, otherwise we would be far away to hit the 4580-4600 top, but why that has to be hit is just one of my intuition, it is the 11th week for this bull run since March low and normally we make a higher high than last week and then tank big, how weird
ReplyDeleteI am all out of the shorts now, bought one as well, thought we have not yet hit banks, it is just me being a trader.
ReplyDeletealmost hitting rsi lowerbank, but not yet
ReplyDeleteis lower 4340?
ReplyDeletealmost hitting, so if you want to take money and run, it would be nice, we have had a good day, I have got out all my shorts now at a profit as an aggregate and I am happy for that now, need to reassess.
ReplyDeleteTg is saying 3830ish, so he is good with accurae numbers
ReplyDeletesorry, 4330, 3830? you wish
ReplyDelete4330
looking across, I think my weekly for dow is 8350, so hit as well, I think this might be close to it
I am switching to the bull side now, maybe a bit premature, but time to switch sides for me
ReplyDeletehow did you do?
ReplyDeletelet's play the 4300-4600 range.
agreed. out at 4340. Phew.
ReplyDeleteNo more for me today, instead heading to the nursery to put these plants together.
Thank you again Mr Trigger. Looking at the Vix last night and drawing the rivers in this morn has helped me no end.
I hope to join you again if youll have me.
Today i kept an eye on iii every hour but find I get distracted with all the different threads and being an easily led kind of chap prefer the style and focus here.
ps. if youre ever in the cotswolds I have some plants for Mrs T. failing that I shall continue clicking.
nbt
lovely, glad we have all had a good day
ReplyDeleteI shall be on Friday as well, tomorrow I am out
take care of yourself and them plants--I love plants, have some on my window sills.
We have not started yet and we have 2 and a bit days left to get to that summit.
ReplyDelete4600-4300=300
300/2.618=115 points
so here we go, pure fantasy at the moment:
1. 4330+115=4445;
2. ignore that, some sort of pullback;
3. 4445+115=4560
4. ignore that
5. 4560+71=4631
let's have a play of a mind game, complete fantasy of course, a mind game.
ReplyDeleteOn the weekly chart for ftse100, let's assume that you can now see a big W with last year's low and this march low as the apex points and last year's fall from 5650 is the left arm of the W and we are now shaping up the right arm, not necessarily all the way up to 5650.
but within that pure fantasy, how would you see yourself positioned when we get there?
1. would you be able to ride it all the way up?
2. would you get heavily stuck on shorts all the way up?
3. would you lose a bit more hair, lol? joking.
That is obviously BM21's talk. If you believe in equilibrium of forces, i.e., whatever comes down will go up or vice versa, then that is one of gravity's little trick on this current market.
This is where I am charting the course of the market for the next few months. I see tremendous selling pressure from August onwards, until the market plunges big in one go to come back here again, lol.
So if you are a bear, you might have to adjust and sell higher and higher; if you are a bull, you still must be prepared for the final plunge to 3000 as your worst case scenario.
It won't be an easy ride for either party and hopefully 4700 holds all bulls and finish off this W scenario and we go back to a much more tradable flat zone between 3600/3700 and 4600/4700.
For now, we have a few weeks peace and quiet in the final square of the diamond, but you need to plan ahead now to look at the big picture, once we are out of the diamond, up or down, there won't be no holding of the flooding! Be warned!
good luck.
downstream moo rivers on hourly momentum indicators:
ReplyDeletersi: link top 11am 7th May and 4am on 13th May to form upperbank and parallel and link up 9am on 11th May;
MACD: link up the M on 11th May and P to form two upperbanks;
Momentum Indicator: link up tops 18pm on 6th May and 5am today and P to form the river;
Repulse: link up the M top today and P to form river.
and refer to earlier comments for drawing downstream moo river on price.
good luck.
ftse closed at 4331, so not much a gap either way.
ReplyDeletedaily momentum indicators touching lowerbank 1's.
1. 4290+115=4405;
2. ignore that, some sort of pullback;
3. 4405+115=4520
4. ignore that
5. 4520+71=4591-->4620
Tomorrow, I see a spike into 4200's, quickly bought up by bulls, then plenty of meandering under 4400. Friday we go towards the summit near 4520 first, and then 4570-4620 top.
===================
We need to be able to construct some upstream moo rivers on hourly momentum indicators for tomorrow's actions.
Tentatively, let's do this:
rsi: link up bottoms of the hourly M today and P to link up the M between 19pm and 22pm on 12th May to form the upstream moo river, but divide that by adding another upperbank by linking up the the low at 17pm on 12 May.
I hope this works out for you tomorrow, I won't be here tomorrow, so good luck with it and start drawing the moo rivers by yourself. The key word is correlation, if the market is going up, you want to find the upstream moo river on price as well as at least one upstream moo river on one of the momentum indicators, I tend to use rsi more.
have a good one, I will be back here on Friday.
the hourly rsi bottom is between 17pm and 20pm, sorry to rush a bit, I think we need to take it steady for now and then we can speed up the lingo of moo river drawing.
ReplyDeletewatch out the WM's when you are drawing, if it fits the banks like a glove, then you have got the one, bingo, and also if a bank explains what happened before, bingo again, you have hit the jackpot.
ReplyDeletegood luck.
thank you Trigger. Think im slowly getting there, practice makes perfect. Might also sit tomorrow out. a buy order around 4290 perhaps. Need a good nights sleep and assess at sunrise.
ReplyDeleteFingers crossed jnr sleeps through.. (teething)
rest well my friend
nbt
good morning
ReplyDeleteBe very cautious today.
Asia was deeply red, plenty of profit taking there, read my Asia weekly watch, it should'nt be a surprise to you to HK dropping so much.
There is a little opening gap, as we closed 4331 yesterday.
So it is possible for a quick spike towards 4350 to cover that gap, before further downward pressure.
Remember the diamond, it is between 4600 and 4080, so it is possible to go down towards 4180ish today, which will give the same daily range as yesterday 4330-4180=150 pointer.
So ignore the upstream for now, keep at those downstream yesterday until we W'd up and reversed.
Bulls need to be patient with a lot of work under 4400.
Be very careful today, unless you are a madbull like myself, who is reloading for 4600, slowly.
Money can be made, but you have to make up your own mind up based on the observations and the moo rivers and the bigger range.
Diamonds are forever...
good luck.
Ps remember the bigger picture.
What you could do is to load up advanced chart (I am assuming you have that facility as I use ig), you can put the bullish moo rivers on one chart and bearish moo rivers on another (between mini and normal), so that you can flick through them and be prepared for both.
ReplyDeleteThe most profitable trade is Wave 3 trade, so if you miss wave 1, just wait for a pullback and get onto Wave 3, which is actually safer, though the human mind wants to buy cheapest and sell the highest price.
I trust you now have the downstream moo rivers on hourly from yesterday and the possible upstream moo river on hourly as well.
On rsi, you can see while Asia tanked big time, FTSE's rsi has decided to stay stubborn and possibly cross over to the upperbank of the downstream moo river, which is interesting.
Anyways, I have given up scalping today, so I bought another near 4300 just now and I am holding them for 4500 minimum, if not 4600, then again I am a madbull based on my Battle of Diamond rationality.
Under 4400, bears roar, above 4400, bears go hiding.
Above 4200/4180, bulls charge; under there, bears roam freely.
There are various battlezones within the diamond.
Be patient.
PS when you have time, read my moo river anthem and trading systems on the right etc a few times, which should help you to trade the moo rivers whether up or down, whether bull or bear.
and thanks for the clicks, it makes Mrs Trigger happy and keeps me away from other chores.
ReplyDeletehave a nice day.
none of the hourly moo rivers are upstreams, so I am thinking any opening spikes might be sold by bears and we could meander across the downstream moo rivers to the upperbank, then either another sell off or bouncing through upperbank and 4400, depending on the weekly job data this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteit is a scalping morning session if not an all day scalping session until we reach the upperbanks (remember, we had lowerbank 1 and 2 yesterday, now lowerbank 2 is still the lowerbank, but lowerbank 1 is now serving as upperbank 1 and the original upperbank is upperbank 2, if you know what I mean, support turns resistance and vice versa).
I can gurantee all moo river watch followers that there is never a boring day swimming in the moo rivers as you can never swim in the same moo river twice.
forgot to mention VIX escaped a downstream moo river yesterday on hourly, have a read on the weekly watch about VIX in the wealth column.
ReplyDeletereread this bit on Asia weekly watch:
ReplyDelete'A false dawn near 17900 and it comes straight back into the downstream moo river will further complicate the picture, e.g., are we in a new upstream moo river now or are we back into the old downstream moo river, which means the bear market continues intact despite the recent rally.'
fairly niffty description of what has happened to HK this week so far.
I think the weekly watch on moo river is of a better quality, so needs to be read and reread a few times throughout the week to bear in mind the bigger picture.
could't resist the gap trade, so got out at 4340, nice profit to start the day, now I am out and about.
ReplyDeletekeep an eye on all the moo rivers on hourly, you will be fine today.
good luck.
reloaded near 4300, now really got to dash, don't follow me, follow the river, as I am a madbull in terms of a trader.
ReplyDeletetake care
bought another small lot of barc at 237 pence a share, I am averaging down on that one.
ReplyDeletenice gap trades each way, my friend George the gapstar will be laughing all the way to his Green Bank now.
See you tonight.
hope you had a good day, it was quite like what I described last night.
ReplyDeletethe upstream moo river I gave you last night would have worked a treat for you today, not sure whether you have traded on that.
ReplyDeleteHi Trigger,
ReplyDeleteI hope you are having a good ride up this river, We have gone nicely up the rsi river from last night. Amazing how we bounced off the middle bank at 1pm as a falling M was trying to take shape.
Just sitting down now, drink in one hand and a large to-do list in the other.
First off is getting to grips with adv chart and draw in price/rsi rivers. Being able to switch between bull/bear moos will be a great help.
No trades this morn, but have gone short now at 4377. Based on the hourly. Added another bank through the current M. Stop at B/E.
PS. Just so you know, I am a bear by nature.lol
nbt
I am just being stubborn, or stupid, or madbull, or alll three in one. I am playing my weekly range of 4300 and 4600, so I am holding onto the longs for that weekly top.
ReplyDeleteThe diamond says a top of 4600 and the butterfly says even higher possibilities, so I am just holding onto 4600 for now.
a bit exhausted today, so chill out now.
good night.
a bear by nature, that is nice, we can bounce off the opposite momentums against each other.
ReplyDeletewell, in a 4300-4600 range, you wish to sell with an hourly M against the upperbank, it is your call and you have your rational reason for it.
I could take the profit and rebuy but I couldn't be bothered, so I am riding it out and let it be.
I must keep myself away from the computer now.
You have a good night and we will cruise the moo river tomorrow.
This adv charting is great fun. Just reading the weekly analysis/asia/wealth and redrawing all rivers.
ReplyDeleteThe human side of this game is also a struggle for me. Would ideally like to think of myself as neither bull/bear and let the charts (rivers) lead the way.
Bit more anthem and trading systems.
ps. the times on comments are -8hrs, unless of course you live in canada
see u in the morn
considering writing down the weekly watch each monday. Will help me digest it I can take it to bed to read..lol
ReplyDeleteHello Trigg,
ReplyDeleteHope you are okay, i have only just found the comments section of your new site.
Some excellent stuff on here and thanks for posting your bank trades on iii.
I think i have caught your bankaholics, although i may have a different strain of the illness as i have bought some RBS shares ( risk reward and all that stuff Trigg lol ).
Both RBS and Barc up around 4% today so lets see what happens.
Keep up the good work Trigg and see you soon.
Best Wishes
Nigel
good morning, all moo river watchers,
ReplyDeleteovernight Asia boomed as expected, now are we all ready to see 4600 today?
We closed yesterday at 4362.58, so not much a gap either way to trade at the opening, with Asia booming and Barc ready to fly again, it looks like an up day to me.
ReplyDeleteI think we will achieve a minimum of 4500 today, if not my weekly top target 4600.
If you are a bear, be careful, I am a permabull at these levels, until we hit 4800ish or Barc hits 70 on its weekly rsi (Nigel, that is when I will take the profit).
Good luck, more moo river watch to follow, but won't be watching it too closely, as I am not interested in scalping today.
Ps If you normally use google to search things on the internet, why not use my google search near the top of this blogger, it will help to keep this Moo River Watch HQ free to all for years to come. Thank you.
we need to overcome 4420 to confirm this bull run, as we are stuck in a bit of triangle at the moment on hourly price chart, where the current downstream moo river fights it out with a new upstream moo river.
ReplyDeletebut the downstream moo river on hourly rsi has already died yesterday, so I am confident that we will get to 4500-4600 region today.
We have just opened with a small opening gap, which has been filled immediately now, this shows when we go up, we are not coming back down today. Let's see how it goes.
Bull goggles required today, upstreams, W's etc.
here we go, we draw a tentative upstream moo river (the word tentative is used because a moo river is confirmed only there have been two touches on the lowerbank and two touches on the upperbank, two pointed linked to form a bank!).
ReplyDeleteLink up low at 14pm on 21 April and low yesterday at 8am to form the lowerbank, which is confirmed and now we need to search for an upperbank, parallel to link up the top at 9am on 21st April to form upperbank 1 and link up top at 20pm on 12th May to form upperbank 2.
So if you have already drawn the downstream moo river this week, you can see a clear triangle for the morning session, leave that one on for now, you can put different colour to the banks so that it tells you one is upstream and another is downstream.
good luck.
now let's refine that upstream moo river on hourly rsi
ReplyDeletelink up tops at 10am on 12th May and 4am on 13th May to form upperbank 1, parallel to link up the M bottom on 13th may to fomr the lowerbank 2 and parallel and link up bottom at 11am yesterday to form lowerbank 1 and parallel and link up top at 19pm on 8th May to form upperbank 2.
So we have, an upstream moo river, with two upperbanks and two lowerbanks, which should cater for everything today.
let me know if you have any problems.
all drawn in. and colour coded. Sidlined for now, considering waiting for 4400 before a buy or 4355 to sell. Feel it will continue on whichever river it decides on..
ReplyDeletegoggles on.
very good practice drawing the rivers in, looking forward to having a go over weekend with other indices.
ReplyDeletereally I guess I am waiting for a close either above or below the upperbank of this downstream on hourly.
Do you think its a suitable plan to open 2 positions now and going with/adding to the one that breaks?
well done, I think the habit to draw is very important, and for that reason, I should never post any charts, but only sketching details for people to draw their own, that way, they own the rivers themselves.
ReplyDeletein terms of trading, I am no better than you. there are a few things to consider:
1. trendtrade or scalptrade, read that post on the right a few times if you wish;
2. trendtrade: how do you do it?
a. for example, there is an uptrend from 4300 and 4600, aggressive bulls simply average up, with lower buys funding higher buys as stop losses and stop profits are adjusted;
b. holding one or two to ride it to the full;
c. buying on dips and dives, scalping all the way up to form a combination trendtrade.
it is your call, my friend.
I am updating the weekly watch on banks, so might be a bit slow to react to your comments here.
ReplyDeletethese weekly styled ones takes up a lot of my energy and efforts, but they are of the highest quality on this blogger anyway and I am hoping to keep them that way
ReplyDeleteget back to updating that one now.
cu
Hmmm. Couple of chores to do so will check back at 12. In no hurry to lose weds profits, quite happy to sit back and see how this pans out.
ReplyDeletegood luck with the weekly. Sending some inspiration your way.lol
thanks, my friend, I know what you meant, received with appreciation.
ReplyDeletejust done hsbc and will do barclays soon, it is the holistic goggle which is highly energy demanding and a touch of imagination will do nicely.
In terms of trading, I am really changing. Before, every second I want to make all the points there is, now I am more laid back and relaxed and let it go more easily, I think that marks a significant change in me.
now back to the weekly watch
well, taken 130 points for the morning session, not too bad, though still learning to trendtrade, which is the hardest trading style.
ReplyDeletenow get back to the weekly watch, a few things here and there popping up.
see the downstream moo river is still proving to be live and kicking, so for now, we are still stuck in this triangle, 4410 and 4320.
ReplyDeletehaving had a fill of profit, now I am more relaxed, will average down in this triangle.
it won't be a big pointer winning week for me, as I had to get out those 'wrong' sell orders from last week, which meant I was jittery on the way down and couldn't relax and hold for more bear profits early in the week.
ReplyDeletebut it will still be a reasonable week.
now back to trading.
ReplyDeleteon the hourly, there is one final upperbank of the downstream moo river which has not been challenge yet and price wise, we are stuck in the triangle. reloaded one long, which is nice and would love to reload again.
we are waiting for the 1:30pm news from America.
the downstream moo river on hourly price is still live and kicking with a lowerbank touch near 4270. TG is giving out similar numbers on the III.
ReplyDeleteWe will see, it is Friday and also options expiry day, so sometimes it is so tightly controlled by big players on both sides, it is difficult to trend either way, as they all have large options positions on their books.
this morning's high near 4410 was created on bearish divergence, ie waning momentum but higher price, which obviously made it a bear's birthday cake just now, fair play, bears.
ReplyDeleteI will just be the permabull here.
ReplyDeleteit is all looking quite bearish here on hourly
ReplyDeleteprice: downstream moo river, 4410/00 held firm;
rsi: we are coming down from the M from yesterday, which started the rot, the success in selling on bearish divergence near 4400 has encouraged bears;
macd: seems to be stuck in the ongoing downstream moo river as well
Momentum: bearish too.
Repulse: bearish.
So all very bearish here, correlated downstream moo rivers on hourlies. Maybe they know something that we don't.
I won't be selling but you make up your own trading plans.
good luck.
sorry, this morning I was busy doing the moo river watch on banks, didn't pay enough attention to the market
ReplyDeletethe sell near 4400 was a high probability one, with upperbank resistance in downstream moo river and on bearish divergence.
should have been noted, really.
the key question is whether we are actually in the upstream moo river on hourly rsi or still in the old downstream moo river there.
ReplyDeleteif we are in the upstream moo river, then we have had wave 1 and are now in wave 2 and bulls like myself do not want to miss wave 3;
if we are the downstream moo river, then we are headed for 4250ish key test of bulls' defence.
I am a permabull at these levels.
we are in that triangle, so both sides are emoitionally charged, a break of either bank will bring forth a change of pace.
ReplyDeletemaybe this is me talking as a biased trader.
ReplyDeletea quick spike into almost close to 4300 and then we rally all the way back up, and a little breather, and then rally hard into the close, which would make 18th Maye extremely vulnerable as a Monday.
I quite like the idea of being a permabull, but apparently it is very difficult to do, too much emotion whenever the market pulls back and regurgitates.
ReplyDeleteso I have to mark my bear zones, currently above 4600 and under 4800, yes, it has been adjusted higher from the previous 4300/4400 zone.
this morning, market winked at me and asking me whether I wanted the 500 pounds profit from Barclays shares, I said no, it has since come down, but I am fairly relaxed on that one, for some reason. let's see how it goes.
ReplyDeletereloaded another 4329, almost back to where I was this morning, but 130 pointer profit in the pocket, not bad.
ReplyDeleteHi Trigger,
ReplyDeleteam waiting to see what happens at 4310 support. Plus the upstream is still in play (?). So could be a good time for a swim.
Also happy to take a ride to 4250.
Prefer to be a bull today and bear monday.. we shall see.
trading is trial and error, so I am working on my hypothesis that we have had wave 1 and 2 and now almost ready for Wave 3 up, remember for this scenario to stand up, we must hold above 4320ish, otherwise all bull bets are off.
ReplyDeleteIII forum is way too slow and stuck and cluttered, tried to go there, but the machine won't load up, frustrated, will stay here.
ReplyDeletenow read Bill Bryson's travel books, he is a good writer.
Now I understand why my friend Theory used to complain about the III site crashing his computer, I think it basically lacks new investment to give it more zest, it is decaying as a service, really.
ReplyDeletealso cant get on to iii so no distractions there..lol
ReplyDeleteI have a stephen fry on the go.. very clever,very funny.. unlike me..
yes 4320 is close. Lets wake the bulls.. or failing that wake bongo,maverick and BM21.. (best indicators ever)..
we are in this triangle, but somehow bears have run out of ammunition as hourly rsi is 37ish, quite low, I am hoping this one to hold, otherwise will reload lower too.
ReplyDeletelet's work on this bullish scenario for now, as 4320 seems to be holding.
ReplyDeletewave 1 4300 to 4410;
wave 2 4410 to 4310;
wave 3 4310+145=4455 or 4545
Wave 4...
Wave 5
let's see how it pans out.
we do need to break 4410 key resistance though, I think we are almost certain to get to 4500 by the end of today, whether we get to see the view from the summit of 4600 is another question.
ReplyDeletewe are getting tighter within this triangle, one way or another it is going to break
ReplyDeletetrading is an individual choice
1. some trade the range, sell near upperbank and buy near lowerbank;
2. some buy near lowerbank and hold for a break out higher
3. some sell near upperbank and hold for a break out lower
4. some trade on breakout only, trading the trend on pullback after a breakout
it is everyone's game, to trade or not to trade is the question?
good luck.
Bears seem to be insistent on another attack and bulls are hesitantly stubborn.
ReplyDeleteit is taking off time for the flight, so some turbulence and doubts linger
once we are over 4360, bulls can breathe freely.
had a go at 4328, lets see what happens.
ReplyDeletei have a funny feeling you on spot on Trigg.
as Toast says " there is no better trader of the FTSE than Trigg "
he is spot on
Nige
taking off, yes, I said no to 500 or more pound this morning on Barclays shares, I wonder what price it would be when ftse gets to 4600.
ReplyDeletethere is hope.
long at 4337. was going to wait till 4350. Lets see it break 4360 now..
ReplyDeletethanks, Nige, say that again, if we get over 4420, under there, we are still stuck in this downstream moo river
ReplyDeleteI am quite relaxed about it, so will let them run, while watching the garagemen setting up the garage, easy job, it seems, I could have done it.
sometimes I do feel I am in tune with the market, sometimes I don't, with the moo rivers, I am getting more and more in tune with the market, which is pleasing, as long as I improve Trigger the trader, I will be fine.
ReplyDeletetake care.
I have every faith in you Trigg, i think we will reach 4420, maybe around 5.00pm ish do you think, then a breather and the last push towards the sky.
ReplyDeleteI envy you having a garage Trigg, my dream is a nice house with a big driveway and garage so i can enjoy messing around with my VWs at the weekend lol.
We have a nice house, just no garage lol.
Take care
Nige
Nige
ReplyDeletestill, have you made up your mind about which group of traders you blong to yet, per my discussion about the triangle trading at 14:04, make up your mind now and don't kick yourself later
NBT, we have all got to make up our mind and trade accordingly.
Take care, guys, the moo river never stops!
out at b/e. this time waiting for a break..
ReplyDeleteKai sera.
you have to decide which group you belong to, as for the five group of traders within this triangle
ReplyDeleteI am the one who bought near lowerbank of the triangle and hoping for a breakout of the upperbank, this is the most greedy type.
if you want to scalp like you used to do, you divide it into scalping zones:
4320-4370: so you scalp from 4330's to 4360's, giving yourself a bit of margin for error;
then again, 4370 and 4420;
and do that all the way up or all the way down, as you wish.
in every market condition, there is a way to make good money, you just have to adjust your style and make the most of it.
good luck.
scalping is a bit like scoring for gymnasts, you take off the highest score and the lower score and you trade in the middle juicy bits and get in and get out at will.
ReplyDeletewell, I am a natural born scalper, turned a trendtrader, so I know from experience.
we bounced off 38, not too bad, ideally above 40, so this could still be our Wave 3 up, continuing yesterday's bull run.
ReplyDeletewe will see how it goes.
in science, there are two main approaches, so is in trading.
ReplyDeleteone is called reductionist approach, where you divide the market into segregated zones, whether on price or on momentum indicators and scalp;
one is called holistic approach or systemic approach, where you trade on the overall big picture, this is where swing trade or trend trade come in.
One can do both or either, as and when it is suitable subject to market conditions, but the worst scenario is caught in the middle and suffer from both.
the market has not shown its hand yet, below 4370, so bears are hopeful and bulls are fearful.
but I have seen the light at the other end of the tunnel.
let me give you an example about reductionist approach in life
ReplyDeletea patient went to the doctor and complained about a severe headache, the doctor prescribed some painkillers which had an immediate effect;
then the patient went back again and again, eventually in exasperation, the doctor asked what was wrong with him, he admitted he had been suffering from bancoholics, gambling his house, car, tv and whatever valuables on buying barclays shares from £5 in 2008 and it had now dropped to 70 pence and he had no more to gamble and his headache is incurable!
so the doctor prescribed more painkillers and this time also some tranquilisers so that the patient was void of desire to win and hence the gambling addiction was put aside once for all.
see what I am getting at...
to be honest, this triangle still has plenty of shelf life left in there, my natural born instinct is saying it is still very much a scalping range for hours yet.
ReplyDeleteI needed that pause for thought. I would like this to be my first position trade
ReplyDeleteup until now I have been peeping through the cracks in the door. This week feels like that door has begun to open.
No need to rush in yet though..
It has to get off that red line soon..lol
lol. read my mind. a sml one down
ReplyDeletewe are facing significant reluctance here.
ReplyDeleteThis week we worked on correlation amongst price and momentum indicators.
next up, we shall work on correlations amongst indices.
correlation, confirmation, all that is the search for higher probability trade with less risk and more return, but somehow risk and return are closely correlated as well, though, a paradox there.
you have made signficant progress this week, by starting to draw the moo rivers and seeing the WMs against the banks etc. There is still a lot in the moo river system that you need to internalise
then we will be able talk the same moolingo etc..
I wish we made more money, but money is not everything, learning is also valuable.
have a nice weekend.
sign off now, guys, time to prepare dinner.
ReplyDeletesame here.
ReplyDeleteThis has been a great week for me and my learning curve has spiked considerably. However a spike is just a spike and ive a long way to go..
plus my first hundred pointer!
Will be checking in all weekend.
nbt
hourlies were bearish before the brief bounce, so got carried away there this afternoon.
ReplyDelete15m is now touching the last lowerbank in the upstream moo river and will the price hold above 4300.
if we do hold on, then it has been an ABC waves down from 4410; if we cave in under 4295, then it is more impulsive 5 waves down and we are wave 3 down.
need to have a look across the pond.
Ps Well done, NBT, hundred pointers are nice ones to have.
once we are over 4350, we should be ok.
ReplyDeletebut at this moment, a touch into 4260's is not a bad idea, at least that would be a touch of the lowerbank.
hourly rsi still has some downside, almost there now.
it is paradox, ideally, we keep above 4300, then go for it again based on Asian momentum next week.
I won't be watching it now, limit orders at the ready.
let's the weekend begin.
Thank you all for your visits this week, we have now gone over 2100 in visitor numbers, which is nice after 4 weeks on this blogger.
How bizaare!
ReplyDeleteIt holds above 4300 and it has an opening gap on Monday up there near 4350, so a quick rise through 4400 will be devastating to any lingering bears, we are headed for a big week.
but let me not draw any conclusions until I have done the weekly watch.
good night.