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updated at 08:32am, 22nd April, 2009:
Watch out for Week 18 starting 3rd May,
which could be the turning point for this Budget/Stimulus Rally!
We are now in the Budget/Stimulus Rally, following the ISA rally and what happens after we have finished the complete 5 wave up:
it depends on where we end up:
1. if we end up below 4500, we might meander between 3500 and 4500 for at least a few months;
2. if we end up almost near 4800/4700, we might meander above 4000 for a few months;
3. if we end up near 4250, then 3200 comes into play.
End of Bear Market signals:
Watch out for a quarterly green candle or three monthly green candles in a row or a few green dote on Para SAR on weekly.
19-09-2009 could be the day that ends this bear market!!!
However, if history is any guidance, then the last bear market ends in March 2003!
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Updated 4th March 2009: March: ISA/end of tax year, watch for bottom up;
April: April 22 UK Budget, major reporting in the second half of the month, watch for top down;
May: holidays, watch for bottom up;
June; July/August: my holidays;
September/October: key months, watch for bottom up, particularly 19-09-09, which could be the end day for this bear market;
November; December: thin trading, high volatility, watch for extremes.
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Classic Stock market cycles: Strongest three months from November to January; weak February, strong March and April, soft May and June, gaining strength from July, turning weakest in September, strongest in December with a Santa Rally.
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