Weekly: this is the most important week, as we are stuck in the tightest triangle on price chart, a firm break of 16000 is required for the bulls to continue its momentum, but a break down through 15100 will bring bears out to play hard. Rsi is almost touching upperbank of an upstream moo river, signalling a near term pullback, though most momentum indicators are still strong. I think it is likely that we will see a strong start to the week, some weakness in midweek and collapsing big towards the end of the week.
Daily: it is incredibly topsy there on momentum indicators. The upside will be limited and the downside could be quite severe this time.
Japan225: Yearly: make no mistake Japan is still very much stuck in a bear market or a long running downstream moo river, if you link up bottoms of the candle bodies of 1988 and 1992 and parallel to link up the candle body top of 1989 and candle top of 1990 to form the ginormous downstream moo river, whereby you will have two upperbanks. You can see that as long as we stay below 13600 and 15800 this year, we are still very much in this relentless bear market. Well, the rest of the Asia will not be complaining, though the West might be crying for Japan to come out of its slump.
quarterly: it is still a very weak bounce in a strong bear market. Momentum indicators are struggling to raise their heads, but we have managed to bounce off a key lowerbank in Q4 last year. This quarter's ultimate challenge might be 10200ish, though a collapse towards 6950 again can not be ruled out, as we are merely crossing over to the upperbank in a downstream moo river. Remember, in a downstream moo river, trendtrading crossing is from upperbank to lowerbank, meandering/scalping crossing is from lowerbank to upperbank, which is what we are having at the moment. So don't fall in love with the long side too much, we are only biding our time until we reach a certain upperbank, which might induce another downward trending crossing, if this bear market is to be continued as business as usual. Somehow, it seems to be suggesting that 2009 is a meandering across year, which means the bear market is taking a breather for a year or so. On that basis, don't fall in love with either side this year.
Monthly: here we have some bullish intent on momentum indicators, with a W shaping up on rsi, piercing through one key upperbank already in the ongoing downstream moo river, still room to touch the outer and key upperbank. All momentum indicators are supportive. On the price chart, a kiss of 10000/10200 might have some fatal consequences, where long terms bears will come out to fight.
Weekly: as we have broken the downstream moo river on rsi, we have the opportunity to draw an upstream moo river there, and we can see a sizeable pullback is due, as we are touching the upperbank, almost. For this coming week, the upside should be limited. 9400 on price is proving to be the ceiling for now.
Daily: we can see more M's on momentum indicators than stars in the London night sky on a clear night, the warning signs are everywhere that bulls are struggling without a proper pullback.
09:38am, 9th April, 2009:Hong Kong42: Monthly: We are meandering here, but it is a critical meandering, because otherwise we would be falling off the cliff, along the bollinger bank, now we are trying to put some distance away from the bollinger band, which is important.
Weekly: we have had five green candles in a row, but we have only managed to cross from the lower bollinger band to almost the upperband now. A key fight between bulls and bears will take place next week. Momentum indicators are still bullish, but rsi is almost touching the upperbank of an upstream moo river. It looks like we are going to probe into some untouchable area for long term bears, then they all wake up and fight back. It is going to come thick and fast next week. For bulls' sake, we need to punch through the upper bollinger band near 15870 in one go on Monday. Macd is gaining bullish traction slowly. We are still very much stuck in the ongoing downstream moo river and we are crossing over the upperbank in a well managed fashion in a weekly range of 1700ish points. We are green so far every week for the past five weeks, but when we turn red, be prepared for at least 1700 points from the top. The maximum weekly for next week is possibly between 16050 and 14200ish.
daily: while 20000 looks tempting and achieveable, in reality, it is a very difficult target to achieve this time, or for a long time yet. A touch of 20k will mean a full vertical crossing in a downstream moo river, which does not normally happen. In downstream moo rivers, the falls could be vertical full crossings while the rises are meandering across, not vertically, usually. A vertical crossing into 20000 could mean the end of the bear market or the death of the downstream moo rivers. But there is more upside, but a proper pullback is not too far away from here either. We have just licked the midline of the downstream moo river, which is encouraging to the bulls.
Japan225: Quarterly: if you use Q3 of 1990 as the pivotal point or starting point and use the fan approach, linking the various lows on rsi, you will realise that the Japanese worm has been turning into a bullish mood over the past 19 years. The underlying momentum is really in its favour to finally get out of the decades long bear market. But we are still very much stuck in a downstream moo river there, with a few early para sar red dots there. The Japanese are in no hurry to wake up from the slump just yet.
Monthly: while momentums (e.g., RSI) are gaining and crossing key resistance lines, the price has lagged behind, still yet not touching the midline of the downstream moo river, near 10000, perhaps psychologically important to some. We are enjoying a second green candle at the moment, but it is a long month.
weekly: macd has hit the upperbank of the downstream moo river finally, while rsi has already bolted out of the downstream moo river, price is yet to make it over the bollinger band and the midline of the downstream moo river, yes, that is near 10000. Price chart does have the possibility to have a W shape there, but it has to overcome 9350 firmly, the apex point of the W. Para Sar green dots are young and supportive, macd is gaining pace. The bull run should continue, until the balance between optimism and pessimism tips one way or another at a psychological level. We have had 5 green weekly candles in a row, the firt time for donkey years for the Japanese, but it is going very clear to a key bear stronghold, near the old weekly superhammer lifeline near 9350, this is where both parties must fight out for their dear lives.
Daily: the Japanese are having second thoughts and doubts are creeping back into their jittery minds. There are signs of weakness emerging on momentum indicators. But this is the wrong time to have a breather. We need to punch through 10000 in one go, and then have a breather somewhere near 9350. Can the Japanese do it? It all depends on the Hong Kong market or the Chinese market for that matter
08:48am, 5th April 2009: Hong Kong 42: Quarterly: we are enjoying a green candle here, but a quarter has three months and Para SAR is red!
Monthly: we are enjoying a second green candle here, but the PARA sar has been red for many months, we are still waiting for the first green Para dot. Bollinger middle is near 20848, so this is where we are headed for, I think.
Weekly: if you are a bull, you want to look at the weeklies for a long time, as this would have given you the most encouragement and support. But we have had an awefully long run, though there is still some room to continue, it has been a long run in terms of bullish momentum, we might be due for some pause soon. But the first PARA sar green dot has just appeared. Watch out for the weekly rsi, it will encounter an upperbank resistance near 59ish, that is where I suspect a major pullback will take place.
Daily: the bullish momentum has been maintained on this oe as well, but on price chart, we are facing a major upperbank resistance in a downstream moo river near 15000/15100, watch out for bearish divergence, where price shoots but momentums wane.
Hourly: key support for this upstream moo river is near 14200ish, 13800ish and finally 12500ish, key support. From here onwards, watch out for M's and reversal patterns, as the market will be due for a major pullback in the not too distant future, though we just might be in the impulsive Wave 3 up at the moment!
Japan 225: Quarterly: we have a glimpse of hope there for the bulls in a tiny green candle, which could easily turn into anything from here.
Monthly: this is where bulls must enjoy this bull run, as the monthly rsi W is nice and clear.
weekly: the break of downstream moo river on weekly rsi must be very encouraging to the bulls indeed, though macd is now kissing the upperbank of the downstream moo river. A key challenge is coming up to test the resolve of bulls, which is near 9300ish, a break of that will give the potential of shaping up a massive W to tend the bear market at long last. But then again, the North Koreans aren't that keen to see Japan rising up again!
Daily: this is where we have had a few correlated M's there and now has the potential for some bearish divergence to emerge. This does not bode so well, with that key challenge coming up, on waning momentum. If we fail, we might as well go back meandering between 9300 and 6900, but the problem is that once we fail, we will never had the potential of shaping up that massive W to end the bear market again. It is such a massive week, the whole of Asia are waking up and watching with intense interest, some for fears, others for greed, the rise of Japan is always a controversial issue in Asia, much to the misunderstanding of westerners.
Key supports: 8750; 8500ish;8200ish; key resistance: 9300/9400; 10000, main.
12:18pm, 29th March 2009: Japan225: Quarterly: still bearish on all momentum indicators, but price chart seems to be shaping a bullish hammer there with a good tail.
Monthly: Showing signs of life there. RSI has a W shape there and more upside within a downstream moo river. Momemtum indicator is bending up. The monthly price candle is a solid green one.
Weekly: Mostly bullish here across momentum indicators and price chart. RSI has breached a long running downstream moo river. MACD has still some room before it hits upperbank in a downstream moo river. 10000 does not look too far away now, once over there, we are talking about a new bull market, under there, it is still a bear market basing range.
Daily: some bearishness, perhaps some overdued pullback, before we head for 10000.
Hourly: the most relevant to daytrading, there is an upstream moo river there, with a lowerbank near 8330 and ma200 near 8210, if that support is breached, then a major pullback will take place towards 7600, which should hold this time.
Overall, still bullish in the medium, but failure near 8800 will induce a significant pullback. It is still very much a buying on dips and dives strategy for moobulls.
Hong Kong42: Monthly: it has a green price candle bar, but momentum indicators are all over the place, not strongly bullish.
Weekly: quite strongly bullish all across price and momentum indicators. 16000 looks quite formidable to cross for the bulls.
Daily: some tired momentum indicators there, price has overcome one major upperbank in the ongoing downstream moo river and there will be many bear resistance barriers on the road to 20000.
Hourly: the most relevant to daytraders, there is still an upstream moo river there, with a lowerbank near 13500, though 13400 might help to support, if breached, then a major pullback towards 12850/12670/12500 key support, which should hold this time. Failure at 14300 on Monday will induce this major pullback. I can't really see this one to cave under 12000 before we reach 20000.
06:42am, 27th March 2009: Hongkong has key support around 13400.
21:48pm, 23rd March 2009: Well, Asia surprise or delight this morning. Hong Kong: it has penetrated the weekly downstream moo river on rsi and now needs to do the same with macd, as it is kissing the upperbank as well. Stoc has bent over to be bullish. Price has bounced off a weekly lowerbank, formerly superhammer lifeline. A full crossing here will take us to 17300 or 18600. The problem is that it is in no bear's land at the moment, sky is the limit. 16000 as the ma200 on daily might be a significant resistance. However, there is an upstream moo river to trade on hourly as well and it could just be a finishing Wave 5 in the small scale of things and it might want to come down big to test 12700ish again, which is now a key bull support area.
Japan: it has shocked itself today by erupting suddenly against all the doom and gloom. It was the walls of money from all over the world into the Japanese stocks that has caused the volcanic eruption, which I have been talking about for a few weeks now. It has finally emphatically breached that weekly downstream moo river. Up there, 9050 might be a key resistance, as it was the former weekly superhammer lifeline. On the daily, 10000 looks very achieveable. You may draw an upstream moo river on hourly and we have had a full crossing today. 8200 and 8000 should provide support for bulls now.
10:20am, 22nd March 2009: Hong Kong 42: I have taken a good look at the long term charts, nothing is bullish there. We are well stuck in downstream moo rivers. On monthly 30year chart, we are bouncing off the support of 10725, the monthly superhammer lifeline. So far, we have been moving in a horizontal range for the past 6 months. We have yet to test out the top of this horizontal range of 18491. The month candle is yet another indecisive green doji so far.
ON the 30 year weekly chart, we have managed two green weekly candles so far off the bollinger band, but failed at the bollinger middleline last week. On the weekly chart, we are still very much stuck in those two ginormous downstream moo rivers. Last week, we broke out the sharper downstream moo river, but got unstuck at weekly ma20 line. Weekly macd is almost hitting the upperbank of the ongoing downstream moo river. weekly rsi is testing the upperbank of the downstream moo river, momentum and elder ray are showing some sort of bullishness. Ideally, the downside should be limited for now and we should meander across to the ultimate upperbank 1.
08:18am, 20th March 2009: FTSE: We are getting close to challenge the lowerbank on the hourly upstream moo river on ftse, perhaps one of the only few left in the world now. A successful defence there about 3760 will see us bouncing up towards 3920 if not the 4050, full river crossing. It is options expiry day, so sometimes they keep the market tight in a range for a long while until suddenly they make a trend to cut loose the options they have on their books. It all depends, and very much manipulated, I think. I remember a few of these options expiry day, when to begin, everyone is holding for a volatile day, so no one was trading carefreely, but nothing happened. When more people relaxed and chipped in the scalping exercise, suddenly the big tide came. So be careful today. If this lowerbank is destructed, then we will go down to test 3700/3600, see below for my simplistic EWT speculations for this wave down.
On the daily chart, the momentum indicators are showing signs of weakness or tiredness, particularly there is an M on elder ray. Still, on the price chart, we are not in a particularly downstream moo river, apart from the ginormous weekly one, which allows plenty scope for the upside on daily.
On the hourly, we are testing a key support at 12744, a breach there will take the test to 12400ish, which should be the key support, if there is anything left in this bull run. While continued weakness is expected, a bounce could happen anytime, if bulls left behind by the last bull run choose to jump on this time. A rise from 12400/12500 to 13500 should be a reasonable expectation.
Japan 225: you must have sympathy on the poor Japanese. They have been stuck in this bear market for decades. But somehow, everyone missed the fact the bear market 1 finished in Quarter 3(August) of 2005, but somehow it seems that the Japanese have managed to get themselves sunk into Bear Market 2. It is not a prospect that the rest of the world would want to model upon. Then again, take heart, it is very hard to model upon the Japanese, look what happened when the Japanese management tools got transplanted in the western world, like TQM, JIT, etc, they did not work as well, because the Japanese are very unique and very meticulous indeed. The rest of the world are too frivolous and too rampantly spirited to have a Bear Market 2 immediately after Bear Market 1. What a life for this generation of Japanese and their longevity is still No.1 in the world. It just shows misery does your health no harm. Surviving is easy (nuclear bombs, bear markets, etc), but living is a different story altogether.
But for the Japanese, there is really hope, as the rest of the world are getting greedy and agitated about the undervalued Japanese stock market. On the 30 year monthly chart, you can clear see a W on rsi and some upturn momentum on momentum and elder ray indicators. To destroy this bear market 2, the Japanese market need to break beyond 15000 to start with. It is a tall order, but maybe it will happen this year. If you look at the weekly chart and momentum indicators, you will see some bullish divergence there, at the current price of 7798, the Japanese market is actually very much undervalued or bargains to be had based on some bullish momentum indications.
If you use Parabolic Sar on weekly chart, you can almost say the Japanese are going through the three points turning after 5 waves down since July 2007. The recent breach of the rsi weekly downstream moo river since years back also showed that the underlying momentum is turning. It is like a sleeping volcano is waking up, the lava is getting hotter, it is only the smoke is not and the motions within is not visible to the naked eyes of investors yet on the surface of it. Japan is curiously stuck in a non-identity. It calls itself a Western country, hence there is America at the head of the table and Japan imagines that it could sit in the shadow while pulling the strings as it funds a lot of American debt. Now Asia is turning out to be the engine of the global growth, Japan can not go back there either, as China or the Greater China economy (China, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, even Malaysia, etc) have emerged in their own rights, so Japan can not take the leadership in Asia either. While our pension funds might be hungry to invest in Japan for a quick buck, we must sense the internal frustration of Japan in relation to its military past as well. For that reason alone, maybe it is best for the Japanese stock market to be stuck in a bear market for decades to come yet, then Japanese can enjoy their sake and long lives while the rest of the world can enjoy peace and the tubulence between greed and fear.
06:18am on 17th March 2009
FTSE100: On the daily chart, now we have ascertained this bull run, whereby buying on dips and dives should be the dominant strategy, as we breached the daily downstream possible upperbank 1 and 2 and now only have upstream possible upperbanks to contend with. Upperbank one is along 3900 and rising (well, it is an upstream moo river bank, so itt is rising one, the angle is about +15, which is very small, normally a beginning angle); upperbank 2 is along 4000, which seems to be more likely; if we break those two upperbanks, then a more likely downstream moo river upperbank is near 4266ish, though ma100 on daily near 4120 might provide a stop there for this wave up. All in all, the likely target for this ISA rally till 4-5-09 might be 4500, so I am a moobull until we have seen 4500 or 5th April, whichever comes first.
Dow: watch that hourly upstream moo river closely, it is steadily rising at +45 angle, which is a very healthy and strong one. We will have a battle on hand today between 7200 and 7500. If we break 7500, we go shooting up, mind those depressed bulls, their buying desires need to find a way to erupt.
Hong Kong: hourly upstream moo river is at +35 angle, so a healthy one as well. Suddenly, the whole world is full of upstream moo rivers on hourly charts. Can't you see a global theme popping up! Don't fall in love with the bear camp just yet!
Japan: Japan has managed overnight to turn the crossing upstream into an upstream moo river on the hourly as well, though it did breach it a little bit, due to the sake effect. Japan faces signficant resistance near 8400/8800 bear defence zone. Otherwise, sky is the limit, we are due for a Japanese volcano for a long time now, decades, in fact.
21:58pm on 16th March 2009: The most tradable moo river in the world now is the hourly upstream on Dow, it has performed to perfection so far. On the weekly, we have touched the upperbank of a triangle, which is slightly disappointing for the bulls. All eyes are on this upstream moo river on hourly dow, if it holds tomorrow, it will be a miracle.
FTSE100: We have made a hourly rsi 74ish, which is bullish, but it has caved through an upstream moo river there on hourly rsi, which is disappointing. Hourly macd is still holding in an upstream moo river, but overall, it looks a bit bearsih to me, maybe we are a bit tired and desperately needs a leak of some sort, with 4000 so close and yet so far away. Still overall, particularly on daily, there is still some bullishness left there. A challenge of 4000 should be within sight this week. On the weekly, it has touched an upperbank there and on daily price chart as well, so maybe the market is saying we have hit something or some target for this wave, can we have a rest please? We shall find out tomorrow. Maybe we will continue to probe into 3900 and bounce up and down for a bit.
Japan: We have had a full crossing in an upstream moo river on hourly. We are near the upperbank there, so a breakdown could be as low as 7200ish, however, if we break 8000, then bears will be running for cover.
Hong Kong: we have broken the squeezing downward wedge, just! If only we can hold out of this wedge for one more day, more bulls will jump on the bandwagon, then sky is the limit. Do not stand in front of running train, if that happens.
07:48am on 16th March 2009: WOW, Hong Kong has broken a major riverbank overnight, if sustained, sky is the limit. Next up, 13550ish and then 16000. Interesting development. Japan is following Hong Kong, but has not yet made the riverbank yet, more work to be done by the bulls.
14:28pm, 15th March 2009: While there is no doubt that all global stock markets are well stuck in long running bear markets or ginormous weekly downstream moo rivers, there is always a need to look out for the birth of upstream weekly moo rivers to signal the end of the bear market. With the depth and width of the downstream moo rivers, it is easy to conclude that the birth of the bull market will be buried underneath the surface of the bear market or the bottom mud of the bear market.
Japan (225): The weekly green candle is a signficant one. And price chart presents a bottoming up shape as well (the goal post shape). The weekly rsi has broken through the long running downstream moo river. On the daily, price chart has had three green daily candle bars in a row, which is encouraging. Weekly rsi is testing an upperbank of a downstream moo river. Stoc has reached a useful high. MACD is bending bullishly upwards. They all support further upside this week, with a potential key bear resistance at an upperbank near 8430. Once we have erupted through 9000, everyone in the world will be sitting up tight as a bull.
Hong Kong 34: There is absolutely no upstream moo river on weekly price and momentum charts so far. The green weekly price candle is encouraging, but it got stuck under a key upperbank in the two intertwining downstream moo rivers. We are still tightly squeezed in a tightening downwards wedge. There is still plenty of room there for more downside probing. A break of 12800 is required to falsify this wedge altogether. On the daily, we have just had a full crossing inside that wedge like downstream moo river. Monday will be a key day, a failure at the upperbank will bring forth further weakness towards 11228, which is still contained within that wedge like moo river. If we fail under 12800, then big drops are to come for the coming days.
FTSE100: It is here we have a weekly upstream moo river on rsi, perhaps one of the rare ones in the whole world. But weekly momentum indicators are not very tradable ones for daytrading. It underlies the strength beneath the surface, but price could drop a lot on positive momentum indicators, so be warned. There are a lot of debate about whether we are in Wave 4 or not, pending a further Wave 5 down. I would argue that Wave 5 should be contained above recent lows, so hopefully further weakness should be contained above 3500 for now. The green weekly candle has pierced through a possible upperbank on my weekly price chart, so some more upside is left in this run. On the dailies, everything there is very bullish and positive. I beg anyone to argue otherwise, stoc is up, rsi has breached the upperbank of a downstream moo river, macd is bullishly configured, price has made higher highs and higher lows. The argument for a fall is out of the bear market habit, out of bearish anticipation, rather than technical analyses, an almost bear instinct. And we have managed to reach 3800 last week, which is encouraging. I would give bears a last chance to defend their course, that is if they can defend 3830/50 as the final bear frontier. If you parallel and move the old ginormous downstream moo river from September 2008 and you will see my rational behind this. On Monday, if we reach 3900, then we are in a new upstream or a new more sustainable bull run. If we cave in back down under 3830/50, then a downstream moo river is very much live and kicking.
If you look at the 30 year chart, the monthly candle on ftse100 is an interesting one. One of these superhammer on monthly will bring an end to this great bad bear market, full stop! Watch out for that one, a three month green candle run or a green quarter should suffice. It is not a fairytale fantasy to think this Tax Year End ISA rally could go as high as 5000, though 4500 is more a realistic target for now.
This Monday will tell us a lot more about this ISA rally. Whatever happens, FTSE 100 will have to pull back big from the zone of 4000/4200. We will examine that, once we get there.
dow: We seem to have shaped an upstream moo river there on weekly, if 6500 is never breached again. At this moment, we are stuck in a triangle between 6500 and 7500 roughly, a breach of either side is significant. On the daily, while it is all bullish siganls all over there as ftse100, a breach of 7500 will bring forth a challeng of 8250/8350 confusion zone, where bears and bulls must battle it out, as it will be a critical junction for either party.
If you look at the 30 year charts, you must realise this has been the best bear market for bears ever, every quarter is a red candle, I can't believe I was buying in the bottom half of it, there was absolutely no indication for bullishness there at all. For dow, the end of the bear market will come if we cross 9000 again one day. Meanwhile, there does look like a lot of work to be done at this base range yet and after this bounce, a further downward jab looks like a necessity to finish off the bear market once for all.
06:28am, 10th March 2009: Japan: watch out for a volcanic eruption there to bounce off the double bottom to shape up a huge W to reach 11000 to fill in a gap on weekly chart, left in September/October 2008. We are on red alert for this dormant volcano to show some signs of life in the immediate future.
Hong Kong: 12500 is in sight again as we have breached the downstream moo river on hourly rsi and stoc with correlated W's all over the place. All we need is a sniff of volcanic larva from Japan and the whole world will be lit up.
20:28pm, 7th March 2009: Hong Kong (HS34)): It has been a terrible week for Hong Kong, let down by the non-showing of new Chinese stimulus plan and an over optimistic rumour was the killer. It has broken through its weekly superhammer lifeline as well, as with the rest of the world. So in theory, there is no bullishness left anywhere in the world now. The big bad bear market rumbles on, for business as usual.
The weekly is still stuck between upperbank 2 and lowerbank 1 for the two intertwining downstream moo rivers. It is stuck in a thinning wedge with a weekly range between 11280 and 12740, a breach of either will be significant. For Monday, 12570 will be a significant barrier for any bulls to advance further higher up. The world has lost another trigger of dynamism in the break of Hong Kong's weekly superhammer lifeline. The bears are in full control here as well as the rest of the world.
Japan (225): Japan has no bullishness of its own accord, not yet. But it does tease 7000 this week, which seems to be providing some sort of support. For this week, its weekly range could be 5600 and 8400, maximum, though October low of 6800 could provide some support. It is yet another lost soul meandering in the wildness of the great bad bear market. If you look at the daily chart, you will see a drunken Japanese, heavily intoxicated by sake, singing a soulful moo river song, limping around in the darkest of all dark tunnels of bear market. If there is a glimmer of hope, the drunken Japanese' weak eyes could not spot it, because it was filled with tears of the most lost soul on the earth. Japan has been in the throes of depression for more than a decade and if this is a prospect you would enjoy, please keep on selling and be a victorious bear. Remember, the most successful Bear ever, who profited greatly from the 1929 depression, actually turned a gun onto his own head at the end, yes, I am talking about the great Jessie Livermore!
06:08am, 3rd March 2009:Japan: Finally it says that is enough of bearishness for now, it W'ed up on hourly and may start to W'ed up on daily correlately as well, while weekly rsi is still hugging that most watched upperbank. The Japanese recovery could be a fast and furious one. You blink and it might be over 8000 already! The risk is always very high for every bear and every bull.
06:08am, 3rd March 2009: Hong Kong: quite resilient under the support from the mainland China. On the weekly, it might be shaping up the most beautiful W ever to reach 18000, still there might still be a little downside yet. We are still stuck between two moo river banks, above 11560 and under 13233, plenty of room and time to move about in between, a breach of either will be significant.
13:58pm on 1st March, 2009: Hong Kong (HS34): this one has played out the full triangle between an upperbank and a lowerbank. Monday is the key. All eyes are on HSBC. A breach of 12400 will be significant and a break of 11400 will seal a major downturn. But you do not draw the conclusion before the penny drops. Simply put, bulls simply can not afford a black Monday, not this Monday, the line in the sand is 12400.
Japan 225: it is still stuck under the upperbank of the downstream moo river on weekly RSI and has a potentail shape for a W there. Japan follows Hong Kong, as Dow follows FTSE in terms of momentum. There is no critical level for Japan to hold, it can drop as much as to 5600 if it wishes, but all eyes will be on the weekly rsi, any break higher through the upperbank will be significant.
11:18am on 25th February 2009: Hong Kong (HS34): This one is rather resilient and leading the way in Asia. It is still stuck in those two ginormous downstream moo rivers on weekly price chart, but it has been kissing the upperbank for 3 weeks now, maybe there is an intent to break higher towards the final bear frontier (upperbank 2) near 19300ish. For now, it is stuck in a tight downwards triangle, and it has a flat bottom againstg 12250. All eyes in Asia are looking at Hong Kong to see whether it could launch a ferocious assault upon 13000 and more, once 13500 is broken through, we are in a good bear market rally towards 19000.
Japan 225: It has not managed to break convincingly the weekly upperbank in the downstream moo river on rsi, but it is currently shaping up a possible W there. It is also interesting to note it has managed to bounce off 7000 and ma20 on weekly is bendingn a bit. The first bear stronghold is near 8620ish and after that, all bulls come out to play. There are so many advertising for Japan being the value play this year, maybe some of the ISA money will be poured into that before 5th April. It is currently kissing the hourly ma200 line and a break there will lead to an assault on 8000. It does look to have a W shape on price chart on hourly there. There is hope for the bulls.
18:48pm on 7th February 2009: Japan 225: Bulls the world over signed a victorious relief as it finally broke the weekly rsi downstream moo river for the past three years or so!!! Weekly MACD still has plenty of headroom towards the upperbank and chart is kissing the former weekly superhammer lifeline against 8280. A breach of 9000 is required to turn into a complete uptrend, where buy on dips and dives will be applicable. But not yet, bulls, hold your horses! Monday will be extremely interesting as this level has held three times in the past month and you could say this is the neckline for the inverse head and shoulder pattern. Monday is a key day and next week is a key week. If it comes back and holds above 8000, bulls might still be encouraged.
Hong Kong 34: it is definitely leading the Asia recovery with its Chinese connections. It is still stuck in those two intertwining downstream moo rivers, but it is trying to test out the upperbank 1 near te ma20 on weekly chart near 14466. A breach there will be mega important as tere is only thin air towards just under 20000, but I can sense it is tiring somewhat after perhaps a tentative jab through the upperbank and then a miserable rejection and some panicking sell off there. Monday is the day and we will wake up in the UK and smell the roses from Asia.
21:48pm on 5th February 2009: Japan 225: the whole world is still watching to see whether Japan can break out of that downstream moo river on weekly ris. It is almost out, but not quite. We need to break 8300 on daily to reach another key resistance at 8800. If 8800 is broken, sky is the limit under 11000, wow.
Hong Kong: we are still stuck between those two ginormous downstream moo rivers, but there is still some upside to be had under ma20 on weekly which is the upperbank near 14433. Daily momentum indicators look quite aggressive. Hourly: the full stop is the double top near 13600. Not a bad bounce off 12300 so far.
08:48am on 5th February 2009:Japan 225: The whole world is watching whether Japan can get out its bottom or break the downstream moo river on weekly rsi. So that is the only key focus here, breaching that, we could turn into a sustained uptrend for many moons to come.
Hong Kong 34: I did say the high on 29th Jan was the pulling power and it almost got to the same level again yesterday, but there had been a gap down, so the resistance there is substantial too. Breaching that, we could be in for a bull run towards that upperbank 14400, but mind you, we are still in those two ginormous downstream moo rives on daily and weekly, so it is a bear market rally, but a big one.
21:48pm on 3rd February 2009:Japan 225: still very weak on the legs, if there are any legs left. Weekly, we watch whether rsi breaks that long running downstream moo river, or obeys it, as it is kissing the upperbank at the moment. Not really tradable at the moment. On the hourly, there is no tradable moo river either. Bulls really need to push through 8400 to secure an uptrend and bears want to break 7500 low to add further insult to bulls' dismay.
Hong Kong 34: Hong Kong is actually quite tradable, with those two mingling downstream moo rivers. On the weekly, at the moment, we are stuck between the lowerbank of the upper downstream moo river and the upperbank of the lower downstream moo river, between 12145 and 14410, which happens to be ma20 resistance too. Rsi has broken out of that downstream moo river, but so far, the bullish gains have not been sustainable, rejected mainly by the ma20 resistance. Nothing particularly bullish on daily either. Interestly, as I commented over the weekend, the hourly ma200 has played key support so far. The longer it holds support, the more bullish it gets, and a push towards 14500 is not really out of the question. Asia is in a limbo, but Hong Kong is quite tradable, if your margin for error is bigger than the normal size. The high on 29th Jan could be the red flag for mad bulls to charge towards.
20:38pm, 31st January 2009: Japan 225: a lot of commentators are tipping Japan to be the rising star of the global stock market this year. But is it because it has been down there for too long? It certainly has not shown any signs of a bottoming yet. I have bought some share isa in Japan index as well, just in case. Japan is well stuck in ginormous downstream moo rivers since January 2006. Japan really needs to get over 9000 to get some bulls excited and 11500 to get the whole world jumping to attention. But to date, another test of 6820 is not out of the question there. It does look like a bottoming process, but we don't know when it is going to bottom up!
Hong Kong 34: It is still stuck in those two mingling downstream moo rivers. At this very moment, it lies on the lowerbank 1 near 12323 and faces an upperbank/ma20 combination near 14684, a breach of either on weekly will be significant, as there is only thin air after that, either to 20000 or 10725 double bottom. The moo rivers are a bit difficult to trade as the margin of error is too significant, but the ma200 on hourly seems to be a useful line in the sand for the bulls at the moment and ma200 and ma100 have crossed bullishly last week. The spike on 29th Jan could be an interesting trigger for more upside next week. If I have to choose, I will trade Hong Kong instead of Japan for the short term.
07:43am on 29th January 2009: Hong Kong: It is actually leading Asia, as it was the first one to breach the long running downstream moo river on weekly rsi in November 2008, while Japan is still struggling within that downstream moo river. But Hong Kong is still stuck in a ginormous downstream moo river on weekly. Weekly macd and stoc are half-hearted. As I said before, we are stuck in two possible downstream moo rivers, for now, we are stuck under upperbank 1 near 14750 and lowerbank 1 near 12400, a breach of either will bring forth a trend run. For now, it is more likely to go up to test upperbank 1.
Japan: it is trying hard to break that long running downstream moo river on weekly rsi. The key test for the bulls is near 8900/9000, if we can do that, then there is only thin air towards 11000. On hourly, we are struggling with the neckline on that inversed head and shoulder, if we can hold above 8000 and break 8400, then the bull run can continue.
08:12am on 28th January 2009: Hong Kong (HS34): On the weekly, it is still very much stuck in the two ginormous downstream moo rivers, with macd being bullish crossed and stoc bearishly crossed. For bears, the first selling point will be ma20 as well as the upperbank 1 near 14700ish or on a breach of lowerbank 1 near 12300ish. For bulls, they might want to buy against this lowerbank near 12300ish for upperbank 1. It must be said at the moment it is a bear market rally, not a complete reversal of the bearish trend yet, but it has plenty of room upstairs for now.
Japan 225: It is very much stuck in a ginormous downstream moo river as well on weekly, with upperbank 1 as well as ma20 near 8870 for this week and a lowerbank of 5980. Stoc and macd are both bullishly crossed and weekly rsi is trying to break out the downstream moo river since August 2006. Keep an eye on that one! The correlated W's are there on daily chart, rsi and stoc, so there is still some headroom for the bounce yet. 8850 will be a severe resistance. Hourly: there is a rounded bottom or inversed head and shoulder, with various should lines, the last line being 8350ish. We are going up in Asia, but for how long?
06:28am on 27th January 2009: Hong Kong: nice little correlated W is shaping up on daily, across chart, rsi and stoc. Hourly chart has a rounded bottom, a breach of 13000 will give bulls more heart to go for a sustained run.
Japan: same story here, correlated W's emerged overnight across chart, rsi and stoc and hourly has a beautifully shaped rounded bottom, now piercing through ma200 and hourly 70 as well. This bull run has legs.
12:38 pm on 25th January 2009: Hong Kong: Weekly, it is very much stuck in a downstream moo river since October 2007. The angle is a very healthy one for bears at -45 degrees. The only viable support on weekly near here around 12500 or double bottom near 10550; resistance is near 14650.
Japan: very much the same theme as well, stuck in the long running downstream moo river on weekly. Key support near double bottom target at 6820 or lowerbank 6040 or 6000 to round it off; key resistance is near 8840 and 9330. We need to go horizontal to stop the rot for now.
10:48am on 18th January 2009: Japan 225: It is still very much stuck in the lower section of the ongoing downstream moo river on weekly since Jan 2006. The key test is really on weekly rsi, where it is trying to breach the upperbank, macd and stoc still supportive. Hourly, it has broken out of a downstream moo river and could possibly challenge 9000 again this week. Japan is a bit messy, so difficult for moo traders to trade.
Hong Kong (HS34): Hong Kong is quite interesting for moo researchers, as it is stuck in a intertwined pair of two downstream moo rivers. At the moment, we are stuck in a crossover section, where both moo rivers share. It has rejected the test of the lowerbank of one more benign downstream moo river last week near 12800 and this week, it faces the range between 12800 and 15000 in this crossover section, before either going for a much lower lowerbank or a much higher upperbank just under 20000. A fierce breach of 13500 will be a huge encouragement to bulls, while a breakdown of 12800 support might be a fatal blow to the bulls. It is not for the faint hearted, but it is very much tradable for the moo disciplined moo traders with slightly wider stops.
6:39 am on 9th January 2009: Japan 225: Struggling with the upperbank on weekly, just under ma20 9536. If futures closes this week below 8990, next Monday will be a very black one.
Hourly upstream completed destroyed, now any rally up to former lowerbank near 9100 will be piled upon by bears.<
Hong Kong (HS34): Weekly rsi is shaping up a M after touching the upperbank in the downstream moo river. Chart struggles with ma20 15753 and a close below 14750 on futures will be very bearish for next week. Hourly upstream moo river has been destroyed, now any rally up to 15000 or even 14600 will be piled upon by bears. More downside to come.
07:43am on 6th January 2009: Japan: Weekly, bullishly poised, as it has broken through the upperbank or middle line of the ginormous downstream moo river and is now steadying itself above the breached upperbank. There is the ma20 near 9547 as key resistance. Bullish across macd, rsi and stoc. Daily: are we seeing glimpse of correlated M's here, across chart, rsi and stoc. Hourly, Key lowerbank support at 8900, a breach of which brings the challenge to ma200 at 8750.
Hong Kong: HK is actually very tradable, with a proper upstream moo river on weekly with key lowerbank support at 14700 and currently facing the resistance ma20 15800 and after that, upperbank at 18400. It has broken through a downstream triangular hold and is now bullishly poised to challenge 18000, though ma100 at 16000 may prove to be the key resistance.
11:28am on 4th January 2009: you have to decide who is leading the global economy, the East including Japan and Hong Kong or the West mainly America.
Japan: Weekly: breakouts are everywhere, on chart, macd, rsi and stoc. There is plenty of scope to go up to, as price could shoot towards 12000, rsi is only 42.49 and stoc and macd are bouncing from a low level.
Daily: rsi has breached a long running downstream moo river since Feb 2008. Chart: bollinger band tightens, signifying a significant move. It is all very interesting stuff, as yet, I am unable to draw an upstream moo river on the daily chart. There is an upstream moo river on hourly chart, with an upperbank just under 9600 and lowerbank near 8680 and middleline at 9000 to support the bulls.
The main puzzle for Japan225 is whether you trade the daily downstream moo river or the hourly upstream moo river.
The caution is that normally bollinger band narrows with one false move before the real move. So could it be a fake rally before the plunge?
Hongkong (HS34):Weeklies are bullish across chart, rsi, macd and stoc, suggesting an upperstream on weekly chart with an upperbank near 18500 with a lowerbank near 14700. There is a tradable upstream moo river on daily as well, with a lowerbank near 14450 and an upperbank 18200. The only negativity there is macd is negatively crossed and downwards sloping as well. There has been a break out on hourly upstream moo river, now heading towards the upperbank near 18000 as well, if 15000 or 14300 holds support. With the Chinese New Year coming on 26th January, the upmove may still have more legs yet.
Overall, Asia is saying buy on dips and dives for now.
09:13am on 31st December 2008:Hong Kong: strangely, it is not leaving the lowerbank on the daily chart in the upstream moo river, but hugging and kissing it and daily rsi is stuck under an upperbank in the downstream moo river. Break down or break upwards? We ask that question. Daily macd is positive so is stoc. A break of 15200 will be very bullish indeed.
Japan: It is actually slightly more bullish than Hong Kong. It has pierced through its lowerbank on weekly rsi, but facing a test in a key midline in the ongoing downstream moo river on weekly. A break of 9100 will be highly bullish. Daily is also bullishly configured. Hourly has broken out of the bottom half of an upstream moo river. There is hope for bulls.
12:42pm on 30th December 2008: Hong Kong: the most tradable moo rivers are on weekly and daily. Weekly, rsi is testing its upperbank and macd has turned bullish and stoc is bullishly crossed, weekly chart is holding just against the lowerbank.
Daily: bulls are holding for their dear lives against the lowerbank on chart in an upstream moo river. macd has turned bearish, stoc is trying to bounce off the lowerbank. Critical moment for Hong Kong, up or down, up for 18000 or down for 13000? It is going to be volatile.
Japan: similar story here. Weekly rsi is testing its upperbank and macd is bullishly crossed and stoc has turned positively upwards, but we are facing a middleline in the downstream moo river on the chart at 9100ish, a breach there will bring forth a huge rally.
Hourly: it is meandering against the lowerbank in the bottom section of an upstream moo river. A breach of 8500 will cheer up the bears while a breach of 8900 is what bulls need for a more sustained bull run.
07:10am on 29th December 2008: Asia looks quite bullish today, bouncing off key lowerbanks for Japan and HK and now hitting upperbanks for weekly rsi for Japan. It is a breakout or breakdown day today, volatility returns to market today!
11:18am 26th December 2008: Overall, the Asian markets have been rather indicisive. The problem is one of key break out or time to be back to status quo to continue the bear market again.
Japan: Weekly rsi is almost touching the upperbank of the ongoing downstream moo river since August 2005. Macd has just turned positive. Stoc is bullishly tangled near the lowerbank. A breakout of the existing bear market mode is not really unthinkable. But we need a catalyst somewhere in the world to fill investors with a sudden surge of optimism. But where can we find it now? One breakout will lead to another, in a domino effect around the globe. Equally, a rejection or dejection by the upperbanks will cause the global stock market to continue its current bear market mode.
Hong Kong: It is a similar story there. In terms of the chart, we are half way in a crossing from the lowerbank to the upperbank in the ongoing downstream moo river. In a bear market, one can not expect a downstream moo river to be fully crossed from lowerbank to upperbank. The Half Way line is always to be watched out for and we have had three kisses there, all been rejected.
Overall, from Asia, we can gather a picture of hesitation or lack of stimulus to break out, rather than a strengthen bearishness. Because we are a in a bear, a lack of optimism or bullish intent or dynamism could induce further falls, as falling is more natural than rising in a bear market.
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