Week 17 (26th April-2nd May): American Moo River Watch

Dow

(30 year data charts from IG)

Yearly

We are really hanging on the mid bollinger line here,off a very steep cliff. The midline is 8023 and the lower bollinger band is near 1461, I for one don't want to imagine what a world we will be living in, if we headed that way down there. Let's not get there, O Obama, please and this is the year to decide the fate of the yankies as well as the global economy.

Momentum indicators are all bearish. RSI is quite interesting, it is lying along the lowerbank of the ongoing downstream moo river, which is highly disappointing and worrying for bulls, as it really needs to bounce off the lowerbank, even a dead cat would bounce off there.

Quarterly

No bullish signals there yet.

Price is still tangoing with the lower bollinger band, which is disappointing for the bulls. To stop the rot, we must pull ourselves away from it and start to meander across over to the upperbank in the downstream moo rivers.

RSI has bent up against lowerbank 2 (yes, there are three lowerbanks and one upperbank) and I think it is using lowerbank 1 and 3 as the river banks for this current bounce. No decision time yet.

The other momentum indicators are all trying to bend upwards, but not strongly so far.

Monthly

It is not strongly bullish either here, though it is a bear market rally.

Price has managed to get away from the grip of the lower bollinger band, now faces a considerable ceiling near 8950ish this month.

Momentum indicators are trying to support, rsi seems to have some more room for upside yet.

Weekly

It is here we see similar situations as of Hong Kong, we are facing a decision time.

For Dow, it is the mid bollinger line near 7978 which is tangling itself up with. On that particular chart, it does look like a flat zone between 6500 and 9100, though a kiss of 9100ish first will be bearish while a double bottom near 6500 now is actually bullish. But the market seems to favour the first option, which will bring more pains later.

RSI and Momentum have hit upperbanks in the upstream moo rivers and other indicators are still bullishly supportive.

On price, dow has dropped out of the primary upstream moo river, now seems to be stuck in two scenarios:

1. in a not so sharp upstream moo river, requiring a crossing over towards the lowerbank near 7000ish;

2. in a triangle between 8530 and 7777 this week, a break higher will bring us back into the primary upstream moo river. I think this is where the market is going to work between 8530 and 7800ish, with early weakness perhaps to be reversed into a surprising rally towards the end of the week or vice versa.

Daily

We have a set of continuation correlated W there as well, on price and rsi, though they might just be bull traps, a test of daily rsi at 40 will bring more determined or aggressive bulls out to play.

Good luck, bulls and bears.