Week 17 (26th April-2nd May): Wealth Moo River Watch

VIX (May)

On 17th March at 21:00pm, we had a breaking higher gap and we have since filled that one, following a narrow range meandering. It is time for the market to make up its mind.

On the 15 minute charts, we can see correlated downstream moo rivers there on rsi, price and other momentum indicators. We seem to be stuck in a wedge, between 38.5 and 36.6. It is a difficult call, some more meandering before a final breakout. It looks we are in a breakout mode in various areas.
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Cable

(30 year data chart)

Yearly: We have a doji there, but a year is a long year and momentum indicators are all over the place;

Quarterly: it has been a huge bear market and we are struggling to get away from the bollinger lowerband, in order to facilitate a meandering across to the upperbank of the ongoing downstream moo river. Momentums are still deeply bearish.

Monthly: we are bending upwards in momentum indicators, but we need to accelerate a bit in order to get out of the bear grips. On the candles, maybe we have a small reversal pattern there, with a doji last month and green candle this month.

Weekly: we have had a good rally there, with all momentum indicators bullish, though a bit tiring now. This is hugely disappointing, because we should have made more headway in terms of price, e.g., breaking $1.54, before tiring in momentum. We really could do with a trigger, but para sars are greenly supportive. There is hope for bulls, though bears are already running short of patience.

Daily: This is the interesting bit, as we can see emerging correlated W's on price, rsi and Momentum, though repulse is down, macd is hitting the lowerbank. Overall, we need to lift ourselves over $1.50 to give the bears a real scare.

Overall, cable seems to be basing patiently while the rest of the world is running out of patience on this one. It has a will of its own. Many are looking forward to sterling's parity against the dollar, but sterling might want to have its own say, like the stubborn Brits in the face of confrontations. We are stuck in a diamond, which contains a riddle of either a downstream moo river or an upstream moo river, and the key question is $1.50 and $1.40, this is no trendtrader's land at the moment, who might have to wait for breakout plays.
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Gold (spot)

(30 year data chart)

Yearly: we are going up, but momentum seems to be leveling off a bit and rsi is too high without a pullback, but as yet, there is no sign of M's yet.

Quarterly: it has been a great bull run, but now rsi is crossing from upperbank to lowerbank in an upstream moo river from rsi 89, which is way too high in historical standards. This meandering downwards might be a disguise for a significant downtrend. All momentum indicators are regurgitating and Price is having para sar red dots as downward pressure is being applied from that mega top of 1000.

Monthly: This is where my bearish reading is confirmed as the rsi has a downstream moo river and it has started down wave 3, which will entail a big drop in price, though at this moment, rsi is testing the upperbank as if trying to break it, while the other indicators are not yet showing conclusive bearish signals.

Weekly: rsi is also in a downstream moo river, though we seem to be exhibiting a reluctance to cross down to the lowerbank. Momentum Indicator has a Big M top and is now getting into negative territory. Macd is bearishly crossed and started to get bearish. 700, here we come.

Daily: this is most alarming for the bears, as it seems to have escaped the downturn there in price as well as momentum indicators, many of which are showing correlated W's. If you look at the history, you know 850-60 is normally where the bulls come in to buy. The key resistances are 925, 936, 988.

4 hourly: there is huge M on rsi against 79ish level, this has got to be a bearish sign there. If it goes up, I don't expect to go much more than 940 which will bring a sharp downfall.

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Nymex (July)

We have come up from the lows of this year and we are in a rectangle between 5230 and 5300 and a rectange is a continuation pattern, which indicates to me the price will continue to rise, though it is possible it won't go too far high now, maybe 5500 or 5600 tops, momentum indicators are waning a bit.

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In recently weeks, I have always been bearish on gold and VIX and bullish on oil and cable, with mixed results so far, but I have not changed my mind on these so far, though I do not trade any of these instruments.

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