Past Moo River Watch--weekly observations on futures trading of VIX, oil, gold and major currencies

15:18pm, 19th April, 2009: VIX(May): How strange that the world has changed so quickly from one with rampant fear to almost some substantial greed. Since VIX has caved through 40, there seems to be no stopping for it. It has just continued its downfall through a continuation rectangle, but that is also very interesting. I have noticed that once one side has breached a solid rectangle defence, the defeated side simply comes back with a vengence. While I am happy for VIX to go back to its norm range of 40-10, the angle of the downward trend is way below -45 degrees to be considered a strong one. In the coming week, we might find out whether it accelerates its downfall at a steeper angle or bounces off from a solid base somewhere.

10:28am, updated, as on III.

US Light Crude (Jun):

Daily

Is that a bullish reversal pattern in candles? against the lowe bollingerband.

4 hourly

Surely, the bullish divergence is obvious to many a bull's eyes, lol, momentum indicators are upwards, but price is being held down so far in flat base for a goal post pattern, perhaps

Hourly

It is a reversed dome shape, I think it has a better chance to going up today, but another jab at 4670 might be fatal to the bulls' venture.

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Gold (SPOT):

Quarterly

We are meandering down in an upstream moo river on the RSI, other momentum indicators are pointing downwards as well, indicating near term bearishness.

Monthly

This is quite scary, if you look at the RSI, it has just finished wave 1 down and wave 2 up and now in the process of wave 3 down, which will be a big one in terms of prices, or Wave C in ABC corrective waves, which will still indicate quite a bit of price weakness ahead. if anything, the bearish trend on gold has not finished yet.

Weekly

A test of 800 will be psychologically important to both parties and momentun indicators seem to suggest there is more downside to come.

Daily

It is slightly disappointing to see gold escape from the downstream moo rivers on rsi and price chart, but maybe this is just one final elevation before the big plunge towards 700.

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Cable:

Monthly

It is looking quite bullish on momentum indicators. the world is currently yield hungry, investors are scrapping for any bit of income for their money, be it dividend, interest payment etc. I think the man on the street thinks the only way for the UK interest rate is UP, so I am sure there will be long term investors try to position themselves on a cable ride that pays them interest, and hopefully capital appreciation as well.

Weekly

In contrary to FTSE, cable has actually enjoyed three green PARA sar dots there and it has managed to break the downstream moo river on rsi and the momentum indicators are still bullishly supportive.

Price has not changed much so far, it only needs a Trigger to start a major trend, we are meandering for now below $1.52, once over there, we will spike towards $1.70 minimum, imho.

Daily

Momentum indicators are not bullishly configured and the para sar dots are redly bearish. It seems there needs to a dive lower, before a huge bounce up, and what a better day to do it than today the Budget day!