Yearly: it is incredibly precarious, as we are holding onto the bollinger midline here, the lower bollinger band is near 1463. I can't imagine a world at that level at this moment, how much gloom and doom there will be, even for a perpetual optimist like myself! It is possible that we are trying hard to shape up a yearly reversal doji candle, but the momentum indicators are still all over the place.
Quarterly: we are not bullish here, though some momentum indicators are trying to bend upwards, particularly rsi, which faces a key challenge around 44. Watch that level very closely, a reveral there will be significant, possibly resulting in prices testing new lows. But that is a long time away yet, as we are looking 30 year quarterly charts. A rally up to 8900 will be satisfactory to some bulls, but it will still be very bearish. Only a rise above 9100 will alarm some long term bears.
Monthly: while we are having a strong rally, the momentum indicators are not shaped up so bullishly.
Weekly: we are hitting some upperbanks on momentum indicators, e.g., rsi, Momentum. While it gives an overall bullish feel all over the charts, long term bears must be waiting patient for any signs of bearish divergence to place their strategic shorts. Price is hugging the bollinger midline and para SAR dots are still green.
Daily: if you look at the price chart, it is slightly rounding up, which will be bearish. We need a solid rise to destroy the rounded top. RSI has broken down through an upstream moo river, which has supported this current rally so far. Momentum indicators are tiring and toppish. We are getting near to the end of this beautiful bull run and a healthy pullback is the minimum to be expected. If 8000 is broken, don't try to catch falling knives on dips and dives. One needs proper bullish signals to buy again, as we have had a great bull run and there is plenty of profit to be taken and bears have been hurt and now want their share of the cake, in a very hungry mood indeed. Spikes towards 8600 will be great chance to book profit for bulls and place strategic shorts for bears, based on shorter term momemtum indicators and correlated M's, if any, and bearish divergence. A volatile week is coming up.
17:28pm, 9th April, 2009: Dow: Quarterly: We are trying to bounce up there, but only trying at the moment.
Monthly: Some momentum indicators are pointing up now, but others are still very weak, it is not yet conclusive. But if you are a bull, this is the biggest bear market rally we can get in this downturn, while permabears will be waiting to sell when this one is done, as the potential for downside will be quite enticing as well. I don't think we can ever get out of the bear market mode in one go through this rally, but this rally has a time scale of many months to cross over to the upperbanks. Bears must be patient while bulls need to ride it as much as they could, for this is the mother of all rallies.
Weekly: if you want to turn into a bull or a tempbull, you need to stare at weekly chart and momentum charts for a few secondds, it will hit you like a train, the bullishness there. Downstream moo rivers are broken one after another, W and V shapes are all over the place. We are not done yet, the key challenge is near 9100ish, but the potential is about 11700ish, shocking, but very much possible if we have a massive V rally. I know even I would be thinking I would be stuck on some shorts by then, if it really goes that far! It is a big struggle between hope and desperate pessimism and I am a perpetual optimist. However, amongst the momentum indicators, there are signs emerging that a short-term pullback is due again and this time, it might be more substantial. The weekly doji is not helping the cause here. while a business as usual maximum weekly range could be 8650 and 7950, market might play out differently.
daily: we are getting complicated in terms of momentum indicators, but we are getting tired without a proper regurgitation, having come up so quickly. We might need one more parabolic rise before we tank down big, or we even do without that much of bull fuss. Things are going to get really hairy and hectic in this coming week.
08:48am, 5th April 2009: Dow: Monthly: we are in a bounce, dead cat or end of the bear market, it all depends.
Weekly: very bullish here indeed, breaking downstream moo rivers on rsi, stoc and macd. If you are a bull, what more encouragement do you need? It is all systems go here, and a challenge of 9300ish is definitely on the card.
Daily: we have gone past some correlated M's here as well, now perhaps one more spike should induce a major pullback. 8700ish might be sufficient.
Hourly: support near 7900; 7600 and 7200 final.
SPX500: Quarterly: the bear market is only at most half way through yet.
Monthly: there is a glimpse of hope for bulls there. Whiel it is highly disappointing for it to have made a lower low than 2002, it is very marginal. Some oddly shaped W's are emerging there. We are either at teh beginning of a very long bull run or we have not yet stared. Long term supports are near 769 and 666 and key resistance at 960.
Weekly: it may not be as bullish as Hong Kong, but we are heading towards a key resistance on the rsi upstream moo river and macd downstream moo river. A pullback is quite a likely scenario there, though a breach there will shock many bears into frantic action.
Daily; we have gone past some correlated M's there, which always signpost for bear camps ahead.
Overall, I think this one is trying to shape up an inversed Head and shoulder, holding of support near 770ish protects the head and a break of 960 will confirm the head and shoulder being inversed.
On daily, we have just gone through a bull flag as well (similar to many indices in the world), so a continuation of the trend should enable us to reach 960 key resistance.
21:18pm, 30th March 2009: Dow: today's regurgitation is incredibly bullishly healthy, I think the bulls world over will sigh a great relief, now we are ready for some serious challenges. On the weekly, bullish divergence is so obvious, where the fall from 9000 to the current level is a bargain to be had. In terms of this current bull run, we have not finished, but just started.
On the daily charts, we have just started this regurgitation, while the pressure is downwards, it could be stopped anytime.
On the hourly, we could stop here, or we could go further to test 7200, which should certainly hold. Once we move over 7700, this regurgitation would have been finished.
12:48pm, 29th March 2009: dow: Quarterly: it must have been a perfect bear market for bears, as there has never been a green candle since Q4 of 2007. But we must say on the other hand it is very oversold indeed, with macd having achieved the same depth of bearishness as of the last bear market in 2002/3. From these oversold conditions, one might say the most likely way is up.
Monthly: Some signs of life there with a green monthly candle so far, but we have still got two days to go and rsi is bending up and macd is lessening in bearishness and other momentum indicators are trying to revive.
Weekly: this is where global bulls find comfort and encouragement as things are more bullish here. There are three green weekly candles and a first green para sar dot. RSI has just breached the downstream moo river slightly. MACD is challenging the upperbank of the downstream moo river now and has turned slightly bullish. Stoc has turned sharply bullish, having breached its downstream moo river. This bull run has legs.
Daily: a bit tired there, but price has overcome two key bear resistance so far, really, 9000 must be the target now, with or without the pullback, though it seems the consensus is for a major pullback which is healthy, but healthy style is not the American way of life, they live life to the extremes, so be very wary of the consensual view.
hourly: there is an upstream moo river there as well, lowerbank now near 7680 and then 7550 and just above 7250, which should hold this time. I can really see any pullback to go under 7200, otherwise this bull run is finished.
SPX500: similar story to dow, but slightly more bullish on monthly with correlated W's there. Any regurgitation should stop above 750/760 main support. 1000 is not too out of the question, really
weary, so some profit taking for a Friday is not unhealthy.
5:58am, 24th March 2009: I have always said 7800 is actually the line in the sand for dow and so is 830 for spx500. We have definitely hit the ceilings, upperbanks, midlines (whatever you want to call it) yesterday. While it is highly expected for pullbacks, a drilling through the ceilings will be a sucker rally for bears to dive into. 900 should be a good stopping place for SPX500 and for dow, the wildest beast of all, it might have to be just under 9000. It all depends on whether we can hold above 7300 and whether we can break this ceiling at 7800. Mind you, on dow, this is the 5th time we knock on this particular upperbank, so success is not guaranteed, but a success here will be a huge success--yes, we might need to contemplate the end of the bear market if we do break this one!
dow: On Sundays, we look at the 30 year charts for an insight into history. There is no bullishness yet on monthly chart. You can say it shows it is very oversold there, but there is no visible bullishness yet. We are looking at a possible green monthly candle, but there are still ten days to go yet for the bulls to hold onto this first green candle after 6 red candles. On the weekly charts, we have just had a second reluctant green candle or doji candi. More importantly, we debate whether we are at the end of Wave 5 down or Wave 3. If you use parabolic Sar on the weekly chart, you could argue we have had five waves down already. On the weekly momentum indicators, such as rsi and macd, you can also draw long running downstream moo rivers.Watch out for any breakouts, as it would indicate a change of underlying momentum. On the weekly price chart, you can also argue we have started an upstream moo river, since two weeks ago. If you link up the bottoms of those two weeks and use that to parallel against the chart for the past two years, you suddenly realise Week10 of 2009 has stopped just at the right place to shape up a potential upstream moo river from here onwards. It is so beautifully choregraphed that one simply can not ignored it!!! However, it might just be one of those weekly superhammer lifeline again, as it has repeated itself at that angle for the past two years.
On the daily chart, elder ray is showing a distinctive M there, so some weakness is to come this week. Most momentum indicators are bending down as well with price chart hitting and failing at a possible upperbank twice last week. I am hoping 7000 (6980 to be more precise) to hold the market up, if not,perhaps 6750, the superhammer lifeline. I am seeing early weakness for the beginning of the week (maybe subject to another bounce towards 7450ish, but not more) and then market regains its footing in the second half of the week towards 7700ish.
SPX500: I have never had a look at its 30 year chart before today, so it is a blank chart without any moo rivers there, quite refreshing really. ON the weekly chart, we can clearly see that we are in Wave 5 of this bear market, which is quite encouraging to the long term bulls. But it seems that we still have a good number of down weeks to come yet, before this bear market is finished once for all. With destruction of all hourly upstream moo rivers last week, some weakness is to be expected this week, unless something really surprises, but I don't think there will be, as we have had trillions day in day out, printed out to help the economy,nothing surprises this market on the upside any more, it should be kept under 790 at the beinning of the week and a test of 760 and perhaps just stops above 720 and then rallies back towards 820 later in the week. 06:42am, 27th March 2009: Dow supports are 7760; 7600 and 7400 and 7200, key. Resistance is mainly 8000; 8100 and 8200, key. Everyone is a bit bull leg
20:28pm, 7th March 2009: Dow: At least, this one is consistently bearish. It broke its superhammer lifeline three weeks ago and has now continued the bear market business as usual. This is the 4th red weekly candle we have had so far. While on the price chart, my last lowerbank is 6240 this week, the shape of the series of candles do look sharpish to me, so there is very little juice left there to be squeezed. It might trigger a V shaped bounce, which so fits the birth of another superhammer on the weekly. Dow watchers are watching only with no trade intentions. They are staring at the possibility of 5500 as well as 7000. If we can somehow manage to overcome 6800 convincingly, we could be in for a ride to 7500ish. That should be enough for this week to play out, a superhammer down to 6250/6300 and bounce back to 7500ish. If we manage to break 6800 and stay above that, a rise to 7500 is also not out of the question. I prefer the superhammer option, but that would almost be terminal for some market watchers for this bear run, so it is only an ideal situation for the bulls to have a Black Monday and a rally in the rest of the week. If not, then the superhammer will be much lower.
14:08pm on 1st March, 2009: Weekly: Three red candles in a row, normally means the fourth one will be a green one, strange but true. Why are long term bears taking shorts off? Not because it is summer, but because the juice in the lemon is onto the last few drops. It all depends on when you start to count the first wave down. If you start with Oct 2007 to Jan 2008, then we are almost finishing Wave 5 of the whole series of down waves, almost time to bounce up and down for a bit, before the next waves. Weekly MACD has not yet crossed to the upperbank and weekly rsi has touched the upperbank but is now stuck in oversold level again and weekly stoc is bearish but at very low level too. A final squeeze should see the end of this whole series of down moves to finish. There are absolutely no upstream moo rivers to buy into. If you buy, you are a bottom fisher, ready to buy to shape up an upstream moo river if there are others following you. On daily, possible W's could shape if we do not have a black Monday. Bulls simply can not afford a Black Monday, full stop! There is nothing more I want to add about the puppy SPX500, which has already shown me a big loss on my share isa!
07:51am on 27th February, 2009:Dow: somehow we are holding up against the former breached upperbank of the downstream moo river, which is encouraging. A break over 7270 will be highly significant. 7400 is the magnet for the bulls while bears are scratching their heads on how to break 7100/7000 bull defence. Somehow, one feels that we are meandering and waiting for a key trigger for the next major move, when it does move, it will move big!
15:28pm on 24th February 2009: Dow:Weekly: dow is so much bearish than ftse100. MACD is still stuck in the long ongoing downstream moo river, it never touched the upperbank in the bear market rally, which must be really disappointing for dow bulls. Weekly RSI is also stuck in the ongoing downstream moo river and stoc has completely collapsed. The only hope for dow bulls is that whenever weekly stoc hit this sort of oversold level, it has brought about huge rallies in the past, in this ongoing bear market. Once we broke through the former weekly superhammer lifeline between 8000 and 7900, we collapsed so quickly, it was pure bull slaughter in my absence.
Daily: there are no upstream moo rivers on dailies. The only hope is that the market might rally out of a sudden off some level without any reason, e.g., bears taking money home etc, it could happen here and it could happen off 6900 or lower. It is very much a bottom fisher's game. Then, there is always that health warning for knife catchers. Watch your fingers if you are a bull. Dow watchers are waiting to buy above 7500, which is a cautious approach.
SPX500: same stories as dow, a break up through 810 will bring some bulls come out to play.
10:08am on 8th February 2009: As I won't be updating this date from this week onwards for two weeks. I will try to look at the medium picture of the moo rivers on weekly. What happened last week was that dow has successfully defended its weekly superhammer lifeline. This gives out two possible scenario with different probabilities.
With 70% probability, dow will rise from 8000 area towards 9500 area in the next seven weeks, with 9500 as being the ultimate top, a firm breach of which signals the end of the great bear market once for all. However, if it stays underneath 9500ish, it only means that we have had a great bear market rally and the bear market continues. For this high probability scenario to happen, dow must breach 8800 in the next two weeks.
With 30% probability, dow will drop dramatically towards 7000 and below in the next 2-3 weeks, if we break 8000/7900 firmly.
Weekly rsi is kissing the weekly downstream moo river, a break there will be significant.
On the daily, we have triple correlated continuation W's on chart, rsi and stoc, with still plenty of room for upside. I am more inclined to think we are going to at least test 8800 this week, though the upperbank 1 for the downstream moo river is near 8700ish. It is more likely that a buy on dips and dives strategy will be paying out huge dividends in the coming 7 weeks, though selling into jabs or spikes towards 9500 will be equally profitable. Make the best of it before the market goes one way, either hugely up or down, the latter being the more probable status quo.
On Monday, we might see a spike high towards 8400 key resistance and a dramatic fall towards 8100/8200 support and then rise again. It is going to be volatile. YOu need to make up your mind and a trading plan and stay with it, no matter what, though you must embed both scenarios into your plan.
SPX500: The poodle in America will follow the leads of Dow, though it has not challenged its weekly superhammer lifeline yet. It might meander for the next 7 weeks between 800 and 1000 ultimately. It is a superscalping range, until it is broken. ON the daily, it has broken out of a downstream moo river there and shaped up some likely W's there as well. But it is really a sick poodle, so it wander this way and that way according to where Dow is headed. A kiss of 900 will be just too much for it to take this week and it might put itself back to the sickbed for quite a while. This one is fun to play with less volatility, if you don't like volality like us scalpers do
21:48pm on 5th February 2009: SPX500: the sickman these days are extremely strong, stronger than dow, almost stubbornly strong. Is it because I invested 1/3 of my share isa in this one? It is furtively kissing the upperbank of the downstream moo river on daily. Is it planning a secret rebellion? We shall soon find out tomorrow. Upside limits are 923 or 939 tomorrow.
Dow: the sickie today was dow, which almost got me confused as well and had certainly converted many permabulls into limbobears. Another lunge down towards 7950 is possible tomorrow to shape up the cup and handle. But that bullish engulfment on hourly should bode well tomorrow. We can almost see correlated W's on daily across chart, rsi and stoc, but very shallow one indeed. Upperbank 1 is near 8350 and upperbank 2 is near 8650, all downstream moo rives on daily. Very much a bear market rally, but bulls shoud enjoy it while it is there.
07:48am on 5th February 2009: SPX500: we are all stuck in a tight triangle today, even the sickie SPX. It is more obviously on daily chart. It is stuck under 854 and above 793. Bulls might be targeting 894, if they can break 854/855.
Dow: on the weekly, we are hanging on the thin thread of the lowerbank of that triangle on weekly, which is odd, how could it hang onto the cliff edge yesterday? It must be a miracle. Usually, with banks, you have flood and breach them in one go. Hourly, we are trying to shape a goal post shape, but it could collapse any time, if not, we are in bull business. All very fascinating stuff before the big day tomorrow. Is the market going to show its full hand today or tomorrow. In my experience, normally, markets goes to a half way place and hangs itself in the space, giving both plenty of suspension.
21:48pm on 3rd February 2009: Dow: yes, it grounded out a rounded bottom on hourly and now struggles with ma200/100 and the lowerbank near 8000ish. We could see it meander and hesitate between 8100 and 7950 tomorrow, a beach of either will be significant. To be bullish and sustainably bullish, we must break 8400. You have to go to weekly chart to see Dow has managed to hold above the triangular lowerbank, but on the daily, it has breached the lowerbank, but I would allow this particular 100 points buffer zone, but no more, a firm breach below 7900 to reach 7680 will confirm incrased bearishness. The case for bullishness is a reluctant one, the O Obama hope is hanging on a thin thread!
Spx500: let's have a look at the yankie sickman SPX. It seems to be trying its best to struggle out the sick bed. On daily, this is particularly the case, as it caved back into a downstream moo river since May 2008 but today it tried to bounce out of it. It needs to firmly break 860 to have a healthy chance for a healthy recovery towards 935. It is not lying down without a fight, which is nice. On the hourly, it has almost managed a three point reversal turning around in a moo river.
11:18am on 1st February 2009: SPX500 (cash): let's have a look at our yankie sickman first. It continues to meander down towards a challenge of the weekly superhammer lifeline near 790ish, a breach there bring the challenge of the 2008 low at 740 or lowerbank 2 near 695 and lowerbank 3 near 636, the ultimate challenge. However, the weekly macd is mildly bullishly crossed and rsi still has some headroom to touch the upperbank in the ginormous downstream moo river and stoc is mingling and tangling between bulls and bears. It is in this market hesitation mode that we operate, whereby we have to watch out for the breakouts, as once that happens, things could really move thick and fast.
On the daily chart, it looks very similar to the rounded top back in August and September 2008. If we breach 790 and touch 760, the downtrend is very much confirmed. Next week, we will be stuck in a tight triangle of an upperbank near 868 and a lowerbank near 790. A breach of either will be very significant indeed. The only bullish indication is that weekly has broken out of a long running ginormous downstream moo river since May 2008. It is almost make or break time in this coming week, be alert!
Dow: dow is hanging onto its weekly superhammer lifeline by a thread. The bears are bailing for more blood and once 8000/7900 support is breached, everyone turns into a bear for a huge drop, either to test the popular double bottom of 2008 low near 7450 or much lower. Since this bear market has been going on for a few years, in the past, once the weekly superhammer lifeline has been overcome by the bears, it always goes to new low. So it is very much a make or break time for Dow this week.
on the daily, the moo rivers are very clear cut, so they are very tradable indeed, despite the huge risk. You either defend 7900/8000 or turn into a moo bear once that is breached. If we successfully defend this key lifeline, we might meander towards upperbank 1 in the ginormous downstram moo river on daily near 8700. However, if we breach 8700, we could well go to challenge upperbank 2, which is in an upstream moo river near 9300ish. Monday is a key day for this bearbull battle. Take your pick and design your own moobull or moobear strategy. The daily W's have been finished last week.
Hourly, there is a glimpse of W on hourly rsi and possible stoc. A breach of ma200 near 8150 should give moobulls plenty relief. Once we pull away from that key lifeline, we may go up for at least three days.
08:52am on 29th January 2009: Dow: interestingly, dow watchers got stopped out when they went long in a bull run yesterday. Today, they think the risk and return for both long and short is about equal, so they are buying at 8425 and selling at 8275 for 200 points a go, which is interesting. They are saying once the range is broken, it will trend. Like Japan, dow is still stuck under the long running downstream moo river on weekly rsi. The most tradable moo rivers are on daily and hourly. The daily correlated W's look quite good, having brought a bull run about 500 points, which is also short of target according to my own estimation. On the hourly, it has just built up an upstream moo river there, but it is being threatened to breach at this very minute near 8280. I can see the logic of dow watchers' shorts placed there, but I also think 8200 might be the last line in the sand for the bulls, or even 8150 ma200 support. I am guessing it is a range trading day as well, unless this upstream moo river holds, whereby the upperbank 1 is near 8470 and upperbank 2 is near 8570 at this hour.
SPX500: it is a poodle following the dow and it seems quite comfortable within that long running downstream moo river on weekly rsi as well. It is in a no man's land within the range of 940 and 789 adn the Ws on daily are the most awkward of all, definitely drawn by a drunkard or a sickman. On the hourly, it is struggling with that neckline as well near 870, needing a firm breach to bring forth an aggressive attack on the jail door or upperbank near 940.
08:12am on 28th January 2009: Dow: beyond 8250, there is thin air towards 8800 at least on weekly. Weekly macd has some headroom towards the upperbank in the downstream moo river as well. Dow watchers are intuitively more bullish than bearish, their long target is 200 points north of 8250 and their short is 125 points south of 8100. I am always intrigued to see the reason behind their profit targets. On the daily, the correlated W's are screaming at you and beyond 8350 ma20 resistance, there is thin air towards 8800. So 8800 might just be the target for this honeymoon rally for now, though we might go as high as 9300 if we have enough time before 19th February.
Spx500: This one is bouncing up and down in its own pace between the two river banks on weekly, between 793 and 930 which is also the ma20 resistance point. It just follows dow anyway, so if you have to trade this one, draw a line across to look at dow. On the hourly, it also has that inversed head and shoulder pattern, but basically 930 might be the target, however long it takes.
06:28am on 27th January 2009: Spx500: the correlated W's on daily are a bit mis-shaped, so not the clearest and strongest of all. It has breached ma200 and had a bullish crossing amongst the ma lines overnight, so 920/940 is the ultimate challenge, but given Spx500 is a sickman, it might meander and be happy to follow dow.
dow: the most tradable moo river is on daily as well, with correlated W's there across chart, rsi and stoc off bottom, but they are not as strong as FTSE's. Initially, we are stuck under 8250; 8330; then main resistance near 8750 upperbank 1 and 9060 upperbank 2 and ultimately 9288 upperbank 3. I am staring at an emerging upstream moo river there, but it has yet to be confirmed. At least, upperbank 1 is very much doable.
12:38 pm on 25th January 2009: Dow: I think it nearly or almost touched the weekly superhammer lifeline, but the response was very much muted, though it has been defended successfully this time. Bears might want to have another pop at 7900 or 7820 next week. We need a substantial bullish bounce to get it off the ground and stop the rot. A breach of 8330 is required to give bulls more heart and then again the key resistance on daily downstream moo river is just under 8800. The daily rsi W went pear-shaped last week, which was so bearish and macd and stoc are still bearishly crossed. Below 7800, there is only thin air towards 7200ish. Bulls need to rush out this week, otherwise we could cave in big. I am still hopeful 78/7900 will be defended by O Obama and Co.
SPX500: it did not manage to get close enough to the weekly superhammer lifeline, now near 780 this week. A spike up towards 910 will bring out many bears. It is a mess there. I prefer dow to spx500, though I am not trading either.
11:08am on 18th January 2009: Dow: this could be a very interesting week indeed as we landed in the centre of a diamond, where a top is near 8830 and a bottom is near 7900 (on the daily, it could equate to 8900 and 7800). Could we see a massive rally to the top and then a big caving in towards the bottom or vice versa? Be ready for the volatility. 79/7800 is now the lifeline for the weekly superhammer which I am hoping to hold this time round. Weekly Rsi is still kissing the upperbank of the ginormous downstream moo river since September 2006. We are not out of the woods yet. On the hourly, we are stuck in a downstream moo river there, a break of 8370 is required to confirm an early rise towards 8800/8900, the so-call O Obama rally. But it will be a volatile week, if you blink, you might have missed the train; a second thought could see you standing on the track facing the train that is rushing back. If you want to conserve your capital at all costs, hold tight and stay away from trading this week.
SPX500: Whenever I look at this one, I always feel why bother! Let's just say it is one to be avoided by moo traders, it is ranging between 940 and 780
8:32am on 16th January 2009: dow has bounced off the key 8000 level and is now ready to challenge the upperbank near 8800 again. Hourly, it has shaped up for a reversal of the falls, just need to break 8400 to confirm the uptrend.
06:36am on 12th January 2009: Dow watchers are out of the market, just watching! They quite like a test of 8370 and I think it is very likely it might test slight lower 8200ish, though the weekly superhammer lifeline is much lower near 7800.
12:32pm on 11th January 2009: Dow is similar to Hong Kong, not as bullish as FTSE. The red weekly candle fits nicely inside the midline of the ginormous bear market downstream moo river. Momentum indicators are still supportive. The weekly superhammer lifeline is near 7777. That lifeline will be challenged one day, it is just a matter of time. On the daily chart, dow is trying to confuse some stubborn bulls, as it sits along the lowerbank of an upstream moo river. But I have written it off, as it is not a moo river, but a channel to cross the river, so not as strong. Rsi has broken down the upstream moo river, macd and stoc are weakening towards the bearish side. A break overnight below Friday's low means we are back in the ongoing ginormous bear market downstream moo river again. First up, 8242; second up, 8000; and next is that weekly superhammer lifeline near 7777. Dow confuses me a bit, as it does not fit in with the Wave 4 count as FTSE. It feels almost like in a ginormous Wave 3 down towards 7000. Wave 1 from 9651 to 7453; Wave 2 corrective rally from 7453 to 9088; Wave 3 from 9088 to 6890 minimum. I am not trading dow full stop at the moment!
SPX500: weekly chart has not finished the crossing to the midline yet. There is some unfinished job there to be done.
Daily is hugging the ma20 lifeline as a support to meander across to the upperbank near 945ish. It looks like a sickman on life support machine, at any time, the support could be pulled and life in the bull goes all the way out. Dangerous looking chart there on daily.
06:39 am on 9th January 2009: We are stuck in a tight triangle today on daily chart, which has two conflicting moo rivers. The main ginormous downstream moo river from last August and the new upstream moo river from 20th November. But I think that upstream is just a crossing from lowerbank to upperbank. The triangle tightens at 8980 for the upperbank and 8590 for the lowerbank. I prefer the down scenario, a breach of 8690, brings 8265 and then 8000.
7:43am on 6th January 2009: dow is kissing the upperbank on weekly chart, 9000 is the key, give or take 100 points, as Dow watchers are watching 9050 and 8850 closely. Daily, it is almost submerging itself into the upperbank, ma100 at 9200 looks solid. Hourly: for an ultrabull, a breach of 9000 will indeed be very bullish, if not, we could tank down to hourly rsi 26ish.
12:28pm on 4th January 2009: Dow is not as bullish as FTSE, as its weekly chart got stuck under the main upperbank from October 2008. Unless we breach 9000 convincingly on Monday, then we will test 8700ish key bull stronghold, a breach there will bring many bear points in the ongoing bear market.
Daily: chart is stuck under the middleline in the ongoing downstream moo river from May 2007, so nothing too exciting for the bulls yet, just a bear market rally. There is no tradable upstream moo river there yet, though macd, rsi and stoc are supportive and bullish. If we go beyond 9000, then we are headed to the upper section of the downstream moo river, headed towards 10500ish, also the ma200 resistance. Given dow is a wild beast, that could be done very quickly. There is no tradable moo river on hourly either, it is all over the place, though certain upstream.
Overall, it is still bearish with the daily candle body tucked under the upperbank. I will be very surprised if we are heading towards 10500, rather than the more business as usual 8000 next week.
SPX500: That one is even weaker than dow, though there is some scope to touch the middleline in the ongoing downstream moo river on weekly near 960/950, a test of which will fit ma100 on daily, which is perhaps the best bulls can hope for, a breach there though will bring up a challenge of ma200 resistance on daily near 1140, but I can't really see that happening. No tradable upstreams there yet, just the ongoing bear market downstream for the past two years. Bulls' lifeline is about 860 for now, a beach there will see a further spike down to 700 if not more.
10:58am, 31st December 2008:A week is a long time in the market, we have still got two more trading days left here this week. 9000 will be the key test for all bulls and bears and on the hourly, dow has more bull legs than ftse, as ftse has exerted itself yesterday more than dow. A test of 8600 will be jittery for the bulls, if that holds, it is all very bullish today. If not, then we could go all the way back to 8300 support again, if the bears decide to clear up all the bulls.
13:32pm, 30th December 2008: Dow seems to be bouncing off 8350 support quite handily at the moment.
Weekly: it is sitting pretty ont eh chart, in between a little triangle, between 8350 and 8700, a breach of either will bring significant reward. RSI is still kissing without showing which side is coming out on top, bull or bear? RSI is crossing to the upperbank, still some room in the upside. Stoc is meandering bullishly against the lowerbank. Overall, at least some more leg left in this bull run yet.
Daily: there is no micro tradable moo river there. Only on a bigger scale, there is a ginormous downstream moo river, which I have divided into two halves. If You link up tops on 2nd and 19 September to form the top upperbank and Parallel against lows on 10th Oct and 21 Nov to form the ginormous downstream moo river and parallel again to link up tops on 14 Oct and 4th Nov to form a middle line to divide this ginormous river into two halves. At the moment, we are stuck in the lower half and the middle point of resistance is near 9100 today.
Macd has almost touched its lowerbank in an upstream moo river since 12th Oct and so is RSI. Stoc is trying to bounce off the lowerbank. Overall, FTSE is more bullish than dow, but both have some room for the upside yet.
Hourly: it is stuck between two evils, ma200 and ma20, 8610 and 8530 respectively. Interesting afternoon to follow. I am not trading dow at all at the moment.
21:23pm Christmas day 2008:
dow
Same story here, we are officially still very much in this ginormous bear market. For dow, I am trying a different approach to analyse it, using more of a horizontal moo river method, than the usual slanting upward or downward approaches.
Weekly, it is very clear the key bear stronghold is 9000, a breach there will bring forth more bullish possibilities. MACD is still kissing, rsi has turned negative a bit, while stoc is meandering near the bottom line. It is a very stick situation. With RSI so close to the upperbank of the ongoing downstream moo river from September 2006, at best there might be a test of 9000, though unless we are going to switch out of the bear market mode altogether, this downstream moo river on rsi might continue further. There, we need to keep our eyes out for that development, because weekly rsi has bounced off 19.5 in week 42. A firm break of this downstream moo river for the past two years will have very bullish implications.
key resistances are 8770, 9000/9050 main and then 9300; key supports are 8070 and 7900 main.
The most tradable moo rivers are on hourly. At this very moment, we are stuck in two conflicting moo rivers, one upstream from 5th Dec (low) and one downstream from 17th (top). A breach of 8350 will confirm the downstream moo river and bring up a test towards 8100; on the other hand, a breach of 8520 will confirm the upstream moo river, a bullish success there will bring up test of 8800; 8900 and higher. In fact, these two conflicting moo rivers are very much tradable for the coming days. I think the market is bearishly titled on dow, towards 7900/8000 possibly.
09:18am on 24th December 2008: Dow looks quite bearish to me. It is clear that the bulls have given up the ghost to try to break the upside which is between 8900 and 9000 and they have gone hiding for now, while bears, taking on that encouragement of their defensive success, are now aggressively exerting vicious attacks on the downside, between 8200 and 7950, where bulls will have to put up a brave fight for their dear lives. With dow being such a wild beast and some hedge funds still hungry for cash, anything can happen today. The likelihood for downside probes is much better than another assault on te upside, but we are all in the mercy of juniors who have been left on their cold desks to play, while the big boys go drink themselves silly with flows of spirit, into their spiritless bodies--what a year the City and Wall Street must have had!
13:28pm on 21-12-08: This is a weekly commentary on trading on dow futures.
Weekly: On the chart, we have had an inside bar, meaning lower high and higher low and I have not yet learnt that theory to see what it means next. But it was a red candle, so a disruption to the current Santa rally. The task ahead should be fairly straight forward. On the RSI, if you link up the tops and parallel, you will find this ginormous downstream moo river. If you line up the recent W, you will have a tight triangle to play with, break out should be expected soon, as there is very little room left to meander. MACD is still keeping a safe bearish distance from each other and stoc is lying low on the ground. I think an upward breakout is more likely, then again I have been saying this for ages as well as weekly is never too good a guidance for daytraders.
Daily: for bulls, it was a huge disappointment to break down a major lowerbank on the chart. Now I have redrawn a second possible upstream moo river with a much lower upperbank near 9650 on Monday and a lowerbank just above 8500 for Monday. This is the last possible redrawing of upstream moo rivers. If 8500 is breached on Monday, we will either go horizontal or downstream. RSI is yet to touch its lowerbank and macd is just about to kiss and turn bearish. All very unclear there. I will be very surprised that dow does not try once to breach a middle line just under 9200 and turn sharply straight down next week. 8100-8200 will be a key battleground for bulls to defend their dear lives,as if that caves in, we are headed to 7800-7700 lower zone again. While I have given up trading on dow in this 8500 and 9000 range, I might be tempted again in the lower zone if that happens next week. Between FTSE and Dow, dow is more bearish, subject to huge down swings next week.
Next week, the battlegrounds are clear cut: 8450/8500 for the downside and 8650 for the upside initially, then 8100-8200 for the downside and 8850-8950 for the upside. I am hoping both sides put up a good fight, so that there are lots of money to be made.
20:00pm, 14th December 2008:this is a weekly commentary on dow trading as well.
Weekly: Dow is not as bullish as ftse. We have had a green candle as well, but the reluctance there is signficant. The W's are obscure. We have watch out the reaction when dow rsi reaches its upperbank in the ginormous downstream moo river near 40 (currently just above 35). Stoc is shaping a nice w there and bullishly crossed as well. MACD is nowhere near to a loving kiss yet. Above 9300, there is only thin air for bulls to carve through towards 10000 or more.
Daily: the upstream moo river held there with the green candle body on Friday withdrawn within the river. On Monday, if dow can hold above 8450, we are indeed headed for 9200/9300 or more. This is a much more clear cut upstream than FTSe daily chart. Stoc is M's topped and rsi and macd is meandering upwards in upstream moo rivers with room for both sides. If this daily upstream moo river holds, then we are soon be playing a triangle between 9200 and 8500 roughly, a breach of either side brings another 700 points minimum, so 10000 and 7800 roughly. It will be fascinating week again and I still remain a bull under 9200, though I will be very much hesitant to buy above 9200, if it comes to it. I might turn into a bear then.
Hourly, a bit toppish across the board, though all still bullishly configured with W's and bullish crossed support. Above 8720 will give bears much headache, though a rejection there might bring out my friend Stubear's three cheers (three peaks) and a doomhouse again. Downside should be contained above 8100, though dow is the wild beast of all. I will be buying only very selectively on dow.
11th December 2008, 15:03pm: dow watchers' shorts are cut now, which is quite a usual thing. That is what I said, I prefer to trade within the range rather than breakout.
11th December 2008, 13:38pm: dow watchers' shorts are now on, that is always very interesting, reload longs again. Now let's see whether their long will be entered at 8900 as well. Range trading is often better than breakout trading, since it just happens more often.
11th December 2008, 06:01am:Today, we have a clear battleground to play with. Maximum daily trading rang is between 8370 and 9470, though more rational trading range might be between 8470 and 9240. If you are a bull like I am, I am looking to defend 8640; 8570; 8450 and finally 8350. If you are a bear, you are looking to defend 8840/8890 (main) and after that, thin air, 9230ish. So the tasks for each side are very clear cut. Momentum has not been maintained on hourly macd and rsi, so I am expecting some downward pressure early on to reload my longs, pending the appearance of a W along the lowerbanks.
Dow watchers are watching to buy above 8950 and selling under 8630, with 250 points profit target, I think that is just about right, though I would rather play within the range rather than trading on breakouts.
10th December 2008, 21:08pm: I still insist on my weekly target around 9200 by this weekend. It is getting a lot of hard going now, but that is exactly when the market will surprise many a bear. But I will not buy under 8600 at all.
10th December 2008, 05:58am: We have had a very healthy pullback last night, bulls would have reloaded, like I did. 9200-9300 is not too much to ask today, if we overcome 9000. Dow watchers are not selling any more, watching to buy above 9050, well, they tend to trade on breakouts. Hourly macd has crossed to the lowerbank in the upstream moo river (link up the three recent lows) and there is plenty of upside there. Hourly rsi at 53 is not too demanding either. Bears need to keep an eye on the weekly rsi downstream moo river to see whether that upperbank which has held since May 2007 can be defended. But given the bounce on macd from such an oversold position, I don't think it can be defended this time. We will see. A falsification of that ginormous downstream moo river will signal a change of paradigm, to a temporary bull market at least. These two weeks are very significant ones, I am sure bears will want to have their say as well, perhaps tomorrow, where bulls' conviction and confidence will be shaken a bit by an inner fear! On the weekly chart, above 8600, this is a no bear land, so no defence at all, until 9300. A breach of 8580 will bring many a bear out to play.
8th December 2008, 20:42pm: The same applies to dow as well, we have broken a significant resistance line today and we are headed towards 9300-9500. it is the bullish momentum that matters.
7th December 2008, 12:23pm: Same here, above 8800, the path to 10200 shoud be a fast and ferocious one, but failing that, we are headed for some key resistance on rsi and macd. The three jabs down along the lowerbank on daily chart must indicate a significant bounce towards the upperbank at 10200 at the moment. This coming week will be a key battle week, the week of Dunkirk battle has begun between the bulls and bears. Be ready for a ferocious battle!
6th December 2008, 18:32pm: Let's have a look at the moo rivers as well for Dow. Weekly: Above Above 8600, it is no bear land until 9300 main bear camp and then 10000 (MA20). If you are a bear, you really don't want to be caught in a mega rally, which could come thick and fast, with shorts seeing hundred of points loss in a matter of minutes, be warned and be careful. Conservative bulls might want to buy above 8700, while more aggressive bulls might be interesting to defend 8500; 8350; 8100; but certainly not under 8100, which is the key bull camp. Monday is the key as well, a quick Sunday night drop below 8580 could possibly see a bearish week, meandering below there and 8100. On balance, I will be more aggressively bullish on ftse while taking it easy on dow, buying only near those key support levels as identified. MACD is still outside the lowerbank of the prevailing downstream moo river, oversold, perhaps, while rsi is yet to touch the upperbank in the ongoing downstream moo river.
Daily: There is triple correlated bullishness across chart, macd and rsi as well. Last week, I highlighted the possibility of a ginormouse downstream moo river, with 9300 level only as the middle point of this giant river and 10500 as the upperbank. I have also drawn a crossing moo river by linking the lows on 21 Nov and 5th Dec and P against the tops to form the crossing upstream. On that one, once we are over 8700, it is no bear's land and we go straight towards 9300. A breach of 8100 will see us much lower, e.g., 7300.
Hourly, there was that bullish engulfment on Friday, a breach of 70 hourly rsi could see a much stronger bull run. It is obvious that there is an inverted head and shoulder pattern there the world over are watching with great interest. Head: 7500; Shoulder: 8850; extension will go at least to 10200, wow, how bizarre!
Comments on spx500
Weekly: There is no denial that there are ginormous downstream moo rivers going through across chart, macd and rsi. But at this very moment, the momentum is still upwards, macd is bouncing off the lowerbank, rsi is yet to reach the upperbank and stoc is W shaped in a bullish crossing. All bode well for the bulls supporting this Santa rally. Of particular interest is a pair of correlated W on rsi and chart between Week40 and Week 42. They did not bring an immediate bounce as the market overdrove in that bear run. I would expect this current bull run will be at least higher than the top of the W there which is near 1010. Daily: the ma20 is supportive on the chart. rsi has broken through a downstream moo river, very significant!!! and macd is still bullishly crossed, so is stoc. If there is a Santa rally, it is the coming week, well, it is almost like stating the obvious truth. Key supports are 850 main and 830 and key resistances are 906 main, 960 and 980 and finally 1010. Santa will come to town, that much is for sure.
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