This is my bread and butter, as I only trade ftse100 this year.
Yearly
We are in the same deep trouble as dow, hanging onto the bolling midline 4560, in fact, if we are slightly deep down than the yankies. If we can get over 4600 as a yearly finish, then there is light at the end of the tunnel. 4600/4700 will be this year's ceiling for the majority of the year, imho.
Momentum indicators are still bearish.
Quarterly
We are stuck in a ginormous downstream moo river and we are trying to meander and move across to the upperbank, but we have not managed to disengage ourselves away from the lower bollinger band yet. For now, we are stuck between 3600 and 4240, meandering zone for this quarter.
Momentum indicators are not bullish, though they are showing some sort of bouncibility.
Monthly
This is the second monthly green candle, a third one might bring doubts to the minds of many a bear, but we have not finished this month yet.
RSI has a W shape off 23, which is significant. Other momentum indicators are not bullish yet. Could the bear market have finished in March 2009? There are quite a few similarities between 2009 and 2003, as follows:
1. the bottoms of the rsi level are similar;
2. the bottoms of the macd level are similar;
3. the bottoms of the stoc level are similar.
So this particular W is a huge worry to the bears. What if the bear market has finished and look what happened in 2003, it meandered forward quietly but relentlessly without a regurgitation until it reached 4600ish level and then the pullback is shallow, above 4300.
Weekly
The bullish momentums are there and rsi is breaching the last of the bear defence--the upperbank of a very long running downstream moo river.
On the price chart, there is a diamond shape and they say diamonds are for ever, a breach of either side will be very significant indeed. The lowerbank of this diamond is near 3900 and the upperbank is near 4350ish.
And finally, we are having a green Para Sar dot, which could be one of the many. It does look a bit worrying for bears.
Momentum indicators are not at the top yet, e.g., rsi, stoc etc, there is still enough momentum left to push this market higher.
But it is like a slow moving slithering snake up the ladder, so this week's range is forecasted to be between 4050 and 4300.
Daily
This is turning very bullish, with a correlated pair of W on rsi and price, with price penetrating a triangular bear defence and now there is a green para sar dot and bollinger midline is turning upwards.
Momentum indicators are not yet overbought, so bulls are getting ready for an assault on the diamond upperbank this week.
The whole world will be watching what the FTSE will be doing this week, as it has lagged all the other indices by a long mile and now it seems ready to motor ahead.
Tomorrow, I will be trading within the range between 4080 and 4180,as I think we will meander tamely for a bit to throw some bears into excitement. The final assault on the diamond upperbank might happen on 1st May upon 4300.
Good luck, bulls and bears, get ready to take part in this battle of the Diamond.
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the actual daily range for Monday was 4089.5 and 4181, which is a fairly reflective of my predicted range of 4080 and 4180. Maybe, I got lucky today.
ReplyDeletetomorrow's range might be between 4150 and 4050.
ReplyDeletegood luck.
Yo Trigger - Nice to see the blog up and running. You're on good form at them moment. Keep it up.
ReplyDeleteStu
Thanks, Stubear, welcome to the Triggerhouse.
ReplyDeleteplaced one short near 4150 for 50 pointer for the opening volatility, see how it goes, otherwise, I have a few longs placed towards 4000.
ReplyDeletelongs limit orders placed towards 4000.
ReplyDeleterevised daily range to 4050 and 4300 today, though a meandering between 4050 and 4150 is preferred, I see a good chance of a test of 4300 today, after the recent weakness, greedy bulls might get into action today.
ReplyDeleteno more shorts for me, I am a bull now, until we have seen 4300.
ReplyDeletewell, the original daily range for today would be almost perfect, as it has turned out to be 4057 and 4158.8, but obviously I let my fantasy run wilder a bit. Mondays and Tuesdays tend to be like that. Quite often market can not make up its mind, so if you look for too many points in one go, you just sit there and see it going up and down.
ReplyDeletesorry, it was 4057 and 4148.8 actually.
ReplyDeletehourly
ReplyDeleteit is time to watch out for the first sign of a break higher, then you might want to count the waves from today's low, as we could see correlated W's on rsi and Momentum indicator.
IMHO, we have almost finished the pullback now and are almost ready to go up. A few of the momentum indicators have already broken the downstream moo river and others are kissing the upperbanks.
For tomorrow Wednesday, I am predicting a range between 4050 and 4250, though you can always divide it into two 4050 and 4150; 4150 and 4250, with the former being the norm range for now, 50 points a go.
good luck.
last night's moo river watch was spot on, Asia has shown an impatience with all this swine flu fear, and some bulls showed an interest to buy on dives, since Asia did come back down quite a bit, Hong Kong off 1500 from its high and Japan off 500. Some bulls see some value here.
ReplyDeleteFor FTSE, all momentum indicators have escaped from the downtrend last night, so we have started the upwaves. In terms targets, I am aiming for hourly rsi near 70 for the first wave up to finish or 4160/4200 in terms of price, whichever comes first.
Let's see how it goes.
I expect a happy day for both bulls and bears, bulls earlier in the day and bears later in the day.
ReplyDeleteseems bears had a happy start in gap trading already, I am slightly disappointed with that, but the hourly upstream on rsi should hold.
ReplyDeleteit seems that we have finished Wave 1 and 2, so I am expecting Wave 3 up.
maybe not yet, as hourly rsi did not quite cave in to the lowerbank on hourly rsi, so I am thinking maybe we are still in Wave 1, very much a greedy bull thought.
ReplyDeleteI expect we give 4200 a go first, then come back down to test 4150/60ish support.
ReplyDeleteI need to pay more attention to gaps and pivotal points, strangely (see link on the right), some of these pivotal points co-incide with the upperbanks and lowerbanks. Very interesting.
ReplyDeletewell, we survived the 9:30 turning point, so we should continue our journey up now.
ReplyDeletehow do you trade today's market:
1. take certain points a go;
2. trade on shorter term rsi's, e.g., 1m or 5m;
3. hold and wait, which is what I have been doing so far, made no money so far, lol
the question is not whether, but when, will we hit 4300 on ftse100, today, tomorrow or Friday, it has got to come, somehow, others bears won't have a good bear run when it comes to their proper turn and bulls will be buying on dips and dives.
ReplyDeletethe logic of the market seems to trend hard one way and then another, so that anyone stuck in the previous paradigm is punished, so ideally for the market makers, everyone loses money one way or another, though not all the time, meaning you make money in one mode and then lose it back in another, the market makers make loads of money in spreads, commissions, interest payments, dividend charges as well as when people lose their capital.
I find it very useful not to listen to financial news stations like Bloomberg, they have an impact on your mind. I am just focusing on the moo rivers, pivotal points and listen to BBC 4.
ReplyDeletefor the first time for a long time, I am suddenly a very much a moo river trader, using the triple screen of hourly ftse100 and barclays and daily on hsbc.
ReplyDeleteI am watching all the moo rivers all over the charts, but it feels good, as I do not look at the trading screen itself, which makes it itchy or jittery.
perhaps I have found a solution to moo river trading.
switch to watch dow, hangseng and FTSE100 instead, as my share price data is 15 minutes lagging.
ReplyDeletemomentums like rsi, macd etc are a bit like fuel for a car (price), sometimes price does not move much, but it uses up a lot of momentum, almost like driving short distance, waste and damaging to the environment too; other times, it is a bit like cruising on the motorway, using as little fuel as possible to cover great distances. This is where the waves come in, Wave 3 is the motorway driving.
ReplyDeletethe iii site is often too slow, so I will stay here for a while.
ReplyDeletehourly downstream moo river upperbank broken on ftse100, looking good, so we will find out how it tops
ReplyDeleteI am guessing it will reach 74/77, then come down a bit, then another high in terms of price, to create a bearish divergence at lower rsi but higher price, well, that would be an ideal scenario for bears.
let's wait and see.
still going strong, so a little meandering between 4120 and 4170 would be welcome by bulls who are left behind or wanting to reload.
ReplyDeletedow is hitting the upperbank on 15m near 8110, so either a breakout or some downward pressure
ReplyDeleteinteresting plunge on dow, 50 pointer a go, guess we are back in the 4170 and 4120 range, which is nice to have
ReplyDeletedow has breached its upstream moo river on 15m, further weakness to come.
ReplyDeletetempted to short ftse100, but decided to let it be for now
ReplyDeletecorrelated M emerging on hourly ftse, should have been a good short there, well, I am always a reluctant bear, but a keen bull.
ReplyDeletedow could go as low as 8000, it seems, I am waiting to reload on ftse
ReplyDeleteonce ftse hourly rsi has reached 74/77, I will be looking to place a quick short on bearish divergence.
ReplyDeletecould really do with a meandering range somewhere on ftse, e.g., 4170-4120 or 4220 and 4170, nice and easy scalps to be had
ReplyDeleteI like this triple screen approach, it does give a better indication, just now a short near 4170 was a high probability trade, as dow broke its upstream moo river on 15m.
ReplyDeletenice W's on dow 15 charts, looks like we are really going for it today.
ReplyDeletegot out of the long at 4190 and sold one, should come in for a bit of pullback, before another lunge upwards, interesting day.
ReplyDeleteI think tomorrow's range for Thursday 30th April might be 4270 and 4170, though the downside might be more significant, as the end of the month might have financial implications for some financial companies like portfolio window dressing etc, could be quite complicated tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteon ftse 100, we have had hourly rsi at 77 as expected, now we need to create a bearish divergence there. I am scalping at the moment and long and short as appropriate.
ReplyDeleteI am getting a tast of hourly rsi, I think it is most reliable in terms of daytrading, 15m is still a little bit too unstable.
ReplyDeletemoo rivers, one can never be too diligent in drawing the moo rivers, quite often, one moo river is another crossing and vice versa, it is almost like Russian dolls, one contains another, bulls and bears, the end of bull run is the beginning of bears, the birth of a bull run is usually in the death of the bear run, bulls and bears are joined at the back.
ReplyDeletewe have had the hourly rsi on ftse hitting 76 and now a bearish divergence has emerged.
ReplyDeleteI am slightly disappointed with the trading, then again, there is never a perfect day in the market, but at least it is winning day.
I am going to train up my eyes on hourly rsi, as I find 15m is too volatile, even for daytrading, but it is going to take some time to get used to it.
ReplyDeletehourly rsi
ReplyDeletewe are in an upstream moo river here, though we have just finished wave 1 up, most of tomorrow will see a healthy pullback towards 40ish, though I am still expecting us to have a second Wave up at least.
Hi Trigger, Just found this bit of the site. I think its really great and easier to follow during the day then iii.
ReplyDeleteI guess the thread will change each week, so will keep my eyes peeled.
btw. the pictures of moo rivers at the top, can it be enlarged/opened. Could just be that im using a Mac..grrrr. wont start a mac/pc debate. I hear they get pretty heated..
regards nbt
also notice that the moo river share watch list are doing quite well. esp northern foods. Is that link still running?
ReplyDeletehi, my friend,
ReplyDeleteI haven't found the method to get that chart pop up in its original form yet, do you know how to do it?
I have lost the moo river free swimmer contents through the old HQ now.
cheers.
today's range forecast of 4050 and 4250 seems to be slightly out, but still it was the correct bullish momentum predicted, so not too bad, but not perfect.
ReplyDeleteFor tomorrow 30th April, I thought about 4170--4270, but might opt for 4120 and 4270 instead.
See how it goes.
we will have a final spike up, to three possible targets: 4230; 4280; 4340. I will cash in my long near the first target and turn into a determined bear, averaging up if required, targeting 4170, 4120, 4080. I won't sell under 4170, but might hold short for 4120/4080 zone. let's still stick to 4270-4120 daily range.
ReplyDeletemoo river working ranges for ftse could be 4 hour and 1 hour, draw your moo rivers there, they give good clues for what is going to happen next.
ReplyDeleteIt is a disguised Wave 2, merged into the final wave up in terms of yesterday's bull run of Wave 5, so the big drop is the most lethal Wave 3, for at least 100 pointer from whatever the high might be. It all depends on the open. If we come down first at the open, then we will spike up after that, though I suspect we wil spike up on futures before the open and tank down at the open, to suck in buyers, and then tank big.
the next two hours before the open will be the most interesting one.
ReplyDeleteI have placed limit sell orders all the way up and placed one limit buy order down there near 4150 for a quick 50 pointer bounce, see how it goes. Under 4170, I will see some value, I won't buy above there any more.4080 is an interesting level, to be honest, I can't make up my mind up about the daily range, I know it will be a down day for most of the day in the absence of dow, then perhaps rallying back once dow opens. the bulls may not be gone home yet.
ReplyDeleteI just had a look at daily, there is still plenty bull legs left there, if we could breach 4300/4280, then we are headed for 4400/4450ish top.
ReplyDeleteI just fancy a spike and tank scenario for today's morning session. At these levels, it is no longer value to be long, though there is still bullish momentum left. I am quite prepared to sell all the way up from here.
just got out of the long from last night for 30 pointer to start the day in a profit, was going to hold out for 4220, but anyways, a first profit.
ReplyDeletewe are in the middle of the moo rivers on hourly rsi, if it hits upperbank first, I will sell near 73ish, if it hits lowerbank first, I will buy one near 54ish.
ReplyDeletelet's see how it goes. I have always wanted to trade on momentum indicators like rsi, rather than price, let's give it an experiment today.
couldn't resist it, so sold one now at 4200, now wait, patience is required, it is the hunting season.
ReplyDeletethis is not a good trade, an impulsive itchy finger one, rather than a proper moo river trade, now will stick to the previous hourly rsi levels.
ReplyDeleteafraid I cant help with the charts. Stu boy is your man there I feel..
ReplyDeletegood luck today, have quite a busy one (sun shining).
Have set up limit orders, so what'll be will be now..
just had a look at hourly rsi, 73 or 64 would be sufficient to sell, I think, well, I am short already.
ReplyDeleteif it falls big,say 100 pointer or more in the morning session, then we might rally back, if we try to hold it within a tight range 4200-4170, it might fall big in the afternoon. let's wait and see. Openings are interesting ones to watch.
ReplyDeleteseems to have made a mistake already, or two mistakes, lol, this morning, patience, patience and systems trade.
ReplyDeletewe are hitting one possible upperbank now, though 73 might look better.
ReplyDeletekicking myself already, the original plan for holding onto 4220 would be much better, both for cashing in and sell, well, you learn something everyday.
ReplyDeletestill, I am confident that we are headed down, so just blaming myself for itchy fingers, otherwises, I am alright.
ReplyDeletenot a perfect start, though should be ok from here onwards, just need to get on with it, now, at least I am 30 pointer in the pocket.
ReplyDeletesold another 4245, that will do me now.
ReplyDeletenot happy with myself this morning, I was too cocksure about the way the market would react and traded on that assumption.
ReplyDeleteI was charting a day pattern, whereby we would come down in the morning and go back up in the afternoon to reach the day's high, so I was trying to outwit the market and positioned accordingly.
in the end, the market proved me wrong, costing me some extra point on the overnight long, but I am happy with my two shorts, they will be alright today.
hourly rsi did hit 73, my initial reading was correct, but once I played a short at 4200, my judgement was a bit clouded.
well, now we come back down.
placed a limit buy order at 4170 and now chill out for a bit
ReplyDeletemaybe, without seeing 4300, I turned bear too early, which is a bit of shame, but never mind, I will stay short for now.
ReplyDeletein a strong bull run, Wave 5 could be worth quite a few points, it seems, as the residue momentum could be quite powerful, so never ignore that one again, I slightly underestimated that one.
ReplyDeletelet's look at the downstream moo river on hourly rsi, we had a M to start the Wave 1 down last night, now we hit 74, which constituted Wave 2, which was a powerful one, now we are pending Wave 3. Let's do a count on them.
ReplyDeleteWave 1 from 76.2 to 54.7
Wave 2 from 54.7 to 74.2 (notice, it is lower than the starting point)
Wave 3 from 74.2 to ? into 50's minimum.
Wave 4
Wave 5
that is if it is an impulsive 5 waves down, but it might be an ABC corrective wave, whatever happens, there is some downside to come now, so let's hold for that.
for future references, I must insist on selling near upperbanks on price, as I am mainly a bull, so selling needs to be more probability, otherwise, it knocks my confidence off when it goes wrong.
ReplyDeleteI have three limit buys from 4170 till 4070 and three limit sells till 4412.
ReplyDeletenow out, see how it goes.
can't go out, my own weekly forecasted range is hunting me now
ReplyDeletePrediction for Week 17 (26/04/09 to 02/05/09):
FTSE: 4050-4300 ;
Dow: 7800-8530;
still not happy, still hurting by not sticking to the final mile, trading is such a human thing.
must say I have had a good run, so I am due a bad hair day.
ReplyDeletenow probably need to recoup and be a permabull again, it is just hard to be a perma at these levels.
the temptation of being able to trade both ways is the bait for one's internal greed.
the waves down count is incorrect, as hourly rsi has risen above the starting point, but the M on hourly rsi yesterday will have an effect later on, probably once we have seen 4300 today.
ReplyDeletethere is on going crossing in an upstream moo river on hourly rsi on dow and we are almost there now, another spike should do the business there. 8600 and 8200 are the two numbers I had in mind back in March when this rally started, so we need to look at the possibility of 8600, minimum.
ReplyDeleteI am back. The iii site is way too slow. This bullbear duality does not work for me, I work best when I am firm with either bull or bear. This is the confusing zone, which is no good.
ReplyDeleteI think the market is still short of a magic number, before it can come down properly.
market is a bit stuck under 4300, once over there, we should see 4400 quite quickly, provided that we overcome the 4330/40 barrier. If we tank below 4250, then bullish momentum will wane dramatically, a test of 4200/4170 is not ruled out.
ReplyDeleteit is all about month end positioning, we don't really know what the big boys are up to.
we have 13 minutes left to have a quick spike into 4300's and tank afterwards.
ReplyDeleteWow. I wish I was as good at predicting the weather as you are at the ranges..!.. the sell at, 4230 and 4280 was hit and now closed half and rest at B/E. will let it run..(honest)
ReplyDeletevery nice to come home to.
yes it rained all day today.. lol
today's weather is cloudy, tomorrow looks like a rainbow day.
ReplyDeletetake care
bulls seem to be inerested in defending 4200/4170 support, which is interesting to note. there are correlated W's on 15m chart, momentum indicators.
ReplyDeleteStill, we have not tested 4170 yet.
My forecast for tomorrow is between 4170 and 4270, and if we go mad at the end, we might go for 4400, which would be shocking.
My weekly forecasted range 4050 and 4300 is holding up well. I am happy with that one for the past three days, but not today, in particular.
don't fall in love with the short side too much, because this is one massive bounce.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at the monthly chart, the W on rsi is so well formed that it smacks the end of the bear market like in 2003.
the problem is daytrading is in the morning, one has to avoid jumping into a conclusion and then makes a mistake which affects one all day long
ReplyDeletethe best way to start the day is reassess the markets from overnight Asia and looks at the charts across the time zones and then either justify or falsify one's last night's judgements and then take actions accordingly.
lesson learnt
After the bell
ReplyDeleteforecasted weekly range is between 4050 and 4300 and we have had 4057 and 4294, so almost job done for the week, really.
The daily forecasted range was 4120 and 4270, and we have had 4164 and 4294, so almost accurate.
======================================
Weekly, we are standing upon ma20 line, which is bullish and we need to close above there (4076) to continue this bull run. 4165 seems to be on support line, while 4340 and 4440 are the key resistance. We are enjoying a second green para sar dot, so maybe a few more weeks to come in a neutral to bullish tone. Weekly rsi is almost touching a key upperbank. Momentum indicators are still bullishly configured, apart from momentum indicator itself.
Daily: I think we have a shooting star candle pattern, which is bearish. We seem to be weighed down by the ma200 line at 4256. If we can't go over there tomorrow by close, there will be further weakness to come. While I forecast a daily range for 4270 and 4170 tomorrow, a break of either will be significant, either upside 4340 or 4440 or downside to 4090 and 4050 ma20 support. If we do cave down below 4170, we will see a week's meandering in a triangle next week, which will be a scalping week.
For tomorrow morning, I will take a look at the following moo rivers before trading:
1. Momentum itself on daily, in a tight triangle;
2. 4160/70 holds or not?
3. upstream moo river on 4hourly rsi, touching lowerbank at the moment;
4. a good look at hourly momentum indicators:hourly rsi is touching lowerbank in an upstream moo river; all momentum indicators are pointing downwards at the moment; elder ray has a possible W.
Good night.
seems to be holding up well over night, though the rational range is 4170 and 4270, we are more likely to see 4400 than 4000, it seems the minimum target for this rally is 4400, could go to 4600 next week, tops.
ReplyDeletemy friend Market Bear seems to indicate a June high to finish this whole rally. If we need to prolong this rally, then we should spike up to 4300/40 max and tank back under 4270 and meander down to test 4000 next week and then slowly and gradually rise.
ReplyDeletebut I can see more a chance of a superspike to 4550/4600 and tank big next week. Let's wait and see.
Japan
ReplyDeletethe key challenge for Japan is 10k, but we are still very much stuck in downstream moo rivers on month. Momentum Indicator itself has escaped the downstream moo river already while rsi has crossed the midline. The Japanese awakening seems to have further to run, until we pop the question of 10000 in May.
Judging from the weekly rsi, once we pop that 10k quesiton, we may incur a bear wrath as weekly rsi would be hitting the upperbank in the upstream moo river.
We can see a few correlated W's there on momentum indicators. In the absence of Hong Kong last night, Japan seem to have made up its mind not to cave back down towards 7000, so 10000 is very much on the raidar.
the Battle of Diamond
ReplyDeletethat one throws up two possibilities:
1. 4340 holds off the bulls and a week or two towards 4000, and then on towards 4440;
2. 4340 challenged, and an early rise to 4400 early next week, and then tank down towards 4100 and 4150 over a few weeks, before rising again to eventually challenge the ultimate Diamond defence just under 4600 by the end of May.
As I won't be here today, I have targed my longs for 4330 and set up limit orders as follows:
shorts: 4330/4400, targeting 4200;
longs: 4170; 4088; 4008; the first one targeting 4400, the next two 100 pointer each.
The most likely daily range today (well I think the low is in) is between 4180 and 4340, finish around 4250.
good luck.
well, we are finishing around 4250, but really it was a very small range.
ReplyDeleteNext week is a difficult call. Either a small meandering range within this triangle and a big up range in the final section of the diamond, which will be a bear territory there. If it is the smaller one, I will be a bull; if it is a big up range, I will be looking to sell. I am holding longs over this long weekend.
forecasted daily range 4170 and 4270, actual daily range between 4263 and 4200, so not too bad, neither end gets breached, so no flight of fantasy for bulls and bears.
ReplyDeleteIt has been a good week, though had a bad hair day in terms of trading, moo river watch has been quite good this week.
Thanks for following the moo river watch and thanks for the clicking as well, every little (click) helps!
after bell, well that previous message was the after bell commment. Next week, the key question is whether 4050 or 4450, we will work on that over the weekend.
ReplyDeletefeeling too tired to update the moo rive watch yet, sometimes, the inspiration and the flow of energy is just not there yet, so have to wait.
ReplyDelete